vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather.
on mumbai page in your post on 28th June @ 11.30 pm you say the mumbai thunderstorm is a case of "macro-weather". shouldnt it be "micro-weather" ?thanks
@anonymous.Yes, it was a typo error. Maybe i should re-read my post before posting -:)What i mean is micro weather. Thanks for pointing out.
Rajesh, I am not very good at long term forecasting, so won't be able to comment on how the month of July 2011 will be from the perspective of total Rainfall, however 2-3 systems as mentioned by you are what can be considered as 'Normal' in the month of July and hence their effects should be 'Normal' for the West Coast including Mumbai, ofcourse the actual precipitation will depend on the Strengths of each system and the path they take. Also, I personally don't consider 10% +/- as excess or deficient.
@Rajesh Thanks for high expectation but I am from commerce field who just finished his studies. Meteorology is just passing interest. I am not good enough to predict monthy forecast. Except you I dont think anyone can accurately predict monthly forecast.
dahanu has received only 12 cm of rainfall in june???????has the monsoon still not advanced over there???or was it a feeble advance?starkly in contrast to ratnagiri wich has received over 120 cm!!!!
@Junaid. It seems Dahanu has receieved only 4 cms this monsoon.A very feeble advance north of 20N.Remember,we have discussed several times in vagaries of the SWM stalling at 20N after advancing into Mumbai on the 9th.And then AS1 by passed the Northern Mah. coast and pured rain on coastal Saurashtra. @svt. Nobody can be 100% correct in weather forecasting.This uncertainty is what attracted me to meteorology. I too am a commerce graduate with business experience.
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