Thursday, January 30, 2014

Posted Saturday Night:

If we continue from the Vagaries' Thursday forecast, F-1 has moved in, but not with the expected precipitation strength. This due to not having the required TPW available in spite of moderate clouding.
Very scarce rains/snow was reported as seen from the rain accumulation map.


On Sunday, F-1 moves Eastwards, and brings precipitation to Pakistan barring the SE Sindh region, which will be cloudy. 
Rain regions in India will be Kashmir, HP, Punjab and parts of Rajasthan. 

Rainfall increasing in frequency in Islamabad, with a sharp drop in day temperatures from current 23c to around 15/16c on Monday.

ROn Monday, the rainfall in a lighter form cover Haryana and Delhi NCR in some places.

Delhi NCR may get some light drizzles in some areas on Monday. Clearing by Monday night, and drop in Tuesday morning temperatures.


Mumbai will be around 32/33c on Sunday, with night at 21c. But, on Monday and Tuesday, we see North winds and day and night temperatures dipping by about 2/3c in the day and night. (Around 30c and 17/18c)


Be Sure to read a report on the El-Nino in tomorrow's Post here --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted on Friday Night:

The F-1 "wave" is showing consistency in strength, and is currently showing signs of bringing precipitation as far South as the 28N line...the UTH Image indicates the upper level strengthof the system, the sea level pressure indicates the tendency, and the 200 hp lines the upper trough...please judge the F-1 route and track now !!





Posted on Thursday Night:

F-1 moving into Pakistan as an upper air trough. With support at the 200 hp level, as the "wave" dips South, we see active precipitation commencing from Western Pakistan on 31st, probably developing from evening.The rainfall spreads Western, Central and North Pakistan on the 1st of February. Cloudy weather for Southern Pakistan (Karachi).

On the 2nd, WD moves East, and we see rains in Kashmir, HP , Punjab and North Rajasthan. Heavy precipitation continues in North Pakistan.

F-1 effect seen in Kashmir, HP besides  Punjab, Haryana,Delhi and Uttarakhand on 3rd of February.Very heavy rains on 3rd in Kashmir and Northern Hills. (Upto 60-70 mms)

Mumbai: Daytime winds will turn S/SE, so the humidity will rise as the days see around 32c...and some clouds from Saturday. After the 3rd,  I do see N/NE (cool) winds blowing into Mumbai after the F-1. Drop in temperatures after 3rd.
Pune, partly cloudy with initial rise in temperatures.

Report on El-Nino and its effect on the Summer will be published on Sunday Night :

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Posted on Tuesday (28th Jan) Night:Vagaries Long term and meteorological Estimate for next 10 days:(could vary by a day on either side).

1. For the North, a Western Disturbance, F-1 is approaching Pakistan. Current core in the STWJ is over Patiala (normal), and registered a max wind speed of 149 kts..In the first week of February, Trough and a deep loop in the 200 hp jet streams show an effective system for Pakistan. Approximate date of commencement of precipitation in Pakistan would be 1st February. Regions most affected would be extreme North and Central Pakistan, but southern regions (Karachi and Sindh) are also in for some rains.
Into India thru the Rajasthan route on the 2nd of Feb...initially effecting Kashmir and HP. Rains in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi, Southwards upto Rajasthan and Northern MP.on 3rd and 4th Feb.

2. Around the 7th of Feb, another northern latitude WD, F-2 comes along in the Northern Hill  States of the sub continent. Would precipitate in Extreme Northern Pakistan, Kashmir and HP and Utterakhand.

3. Early indications show F-3 to be effective and strong and could cover Pakistan completely on the 10th, and move into India on the 10th. covering the region North of Rajasthan (including Rajasthan).

First half of February could be very wet for Kashmir and HP, and would need precautionary steps from extreme snowfall.

F-1 and F-2 will effect Western Nepal, but F-3 will precipitate all over Nepal.

Temperatures would rise in North India prior to F-1. Cold conditions after the moving away of F-1 in Northern, Central and Western India. Cold in Sindh (Pakistan) after F-1 moves away.
Details on this page of vagaries as the WDs approach...

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

An Anti-Cyclone sits over the Central region of the Sub-Continent at the Upper Level.
Dry Weather over the Sub Continent till this Month End..

27th January -31st January: Weather will be dry, temperature forecast for the rest of this Month for Major Cities:
Mumbai: 33/34c - 20/21c..Monday/Tuesday  partly cloudy, then clear. Warm, with E winds in the day.
All Maharashtra coastal cities will be around 34/35c, however, the interior Mah cities will continue to be around 28/29c in the day, as strong E winds continue.
Pune: 31/32c - 14c..Clear and warm.
Hyderabad: 29c - 16c...Partly cloudy (High clouds)
Bangalore: 29c-15c..Partly cloudy.
Chennai: 30c - 20c...Partly cloudy
Delhi NCR: 23c - 8/9c..Partly cloudy first 1 or 2 days, and fog lifting after Tuesday.
Kolkata: 27c-14c..sunny.
Nagpur: 31c-15/16c..Warming .

Karachi: 29c-14/15c..Sunny.
Hyderabad:27c-11c till Wednesday, then warming to 29c-15c.
Islamabad: 24c - 6/7c..Sunny and warming.

Kathmandu: 21-4/5c...Fair and Sunny.

California weather(with weather zones) .. 25-56 Jan 2014 .. See Rohit's Page

NORTH AMERICA WEATHER .. 24-25 JAN 2014 (POPULATION : 55 CRORES)

Alaskan interiors(Fairbanks,USA);Yukon territory,Canada (Whitehorse town) and Alberta,Canda(Calgary) were having above normal temp by 10-20 c ..

whereas Eastern and midwest USA was having colder weather than Alaska..temp were below normal by 5-15 c at most places here ..
MINNEAPOLIS WAS COLDER THAN BARROW,ALASKA..

The temperate parts of the continent(specially central and eastern Canada , eastern US plains) are subject to wild temperature swings .. -15 c temp may be followed by +15 c temp in a couple of days and vice versa.. The swings may be more extreme in the northern parts of central and eastern Canada , eastern US plains..

Chinook winds may play havoc at the eastern edge of the Rocky mountains..
1) The greatest recorded temperature change in 24 hours was caused by Chinook winds on January 15, 1972, in Loma, Montana(USA); the temperature rose from -48 to 9°C (-54 to 48°F)..
2) In Pincher Creek(Alberta,Canada), the temperature rose by 41°C (74°F), from -19 to 22°C (-2 to 72°F), in one hour in 1962.
CHINOOK WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ACTIVE AT CALGARY,ALBERTA ..
Temp at noon are 12 c.. by tomorow noon when the chinook effect fades they are expected to fall to -16 c  

California (Los Angeles) is having mild weather as always during this time of the year ..

            (Click to enlarge..)

Friday, January 24, 2014

On saturday, Mumbai heated upto 32c (Colaba) and 33c (Scruz), and west coast cities also heated , with Ratnagiri showing 35.7c, and Panjim 34.5c...as forecasted in vagaries. Aurangabad was 28c and Pune 30c... on expected lines. 

However, Delhi remained cold at a max of 15c, much lower than expected.

Islamabad was highest at 22c, with the low at 4c, and Karachi rose to 27c...

Its a holiday weekend, and how is the weather going to be ?
 

The west coast trough which had moved inland in the last week will weaken, and the Northern WD system will move away.
No WDs, no troughs, so what do we expect ? And an anti cyclone (High Pressure) in the upper air at 850 hp level sitting over the Central region for 3/4 days. MSLP also around 1020 mb around the core over NW India/adjoining Pakistan, and at 1018/1016 in Central India.
Dry weather almost throughout the entire India/Pakistan and Nepal region next 4 days.
Next major system in the region will be F-1, expected to be effective in Pakistan and India and Western Nepal. F-1 expected around 2nd February in Pakistan.

The Northern Plains will see NW winds, and a marginal rise in day temperatures, prompted by clear sunny skies. Delhi NCR will see Republic Day as hazy sunshine (but cold morning) and temperature range rising to  22c and lows at around 10c.

The Central Region of India will get the normal Easterlies, keeping the interiors of Maharashtra pleasantly cool at around 28/29c.
Mumbai will start to warm up this weekend, with sunny skies to around 32/33c. Morning East winds will become NE by evening.The west coast cities heating up to some extent.
Pune will be sunny, around 28/29c and nights will be at 13/14c.

The NW winds become Northerly by the time they reach Bengal. Cool and nippy, Kolkata will be warmish around 27c and 13c this weekend.

The Northern plains of Pakistan will see NNW winds, keeping the region dry and pleasantly cool. While the Sindh region with NE winds will be dry and cool.Day temperatures in Islamabad should range between 21c and 6/7c.
Karachi will be between 25c and 14c.

Water Detected on Dwarf Planet Ceres..See Space News Page for this..


Thursday, January 23, 2014

HEAVY SNOWFALL/RAINFALL IN HILLS, MODERATE IN PLAINS...

Rain drenched plains of Northern region while heavy snowfall threw normal life out of gear in Kashmir & Himachal. Delhi-NCR got light rain during the past 48 hours. Intermittent light showers continued throughout the day in Delhi-NCR. The day temperature dropped below normal by 6c to 8c in parts of the region. New Delhi recorded a maximum of 14.6c on Tuesday rising to 17.8c on Wednesday. Heavy snowfall in Kashmir continued for the second day disrupting the air & road links.
                                                                   SRINAGAR
                                                                      SHIMLA            (PICS BY PTI)

RAINFALL/SNOWFALL FIGURES IN DIFFERENT STATES OF NORTH INDIA ON 23/01/14(WEDNESDAY)...
MIN 5 MM...
JAMMU & KASHMIR
Pahalgam: 61
Bhaderwah: 59
Banihal: 57
Batote: 52
Kathua: 49
Qazigund: 31
Katra: 29
Srinagar: 25
Gulmarg: 21
Jammu: 15
Bandipora: 12
Harran: 11
Baramula: 8
R S Pura: 8
Kupwara: 6
Rajouri: 6

HIMACHAL PRADESH
Una: 91
Bangana: 70
Dharamsala: 67
Mehre: 66
Amb: 65
Bharwar: 64
Beer: 63
Ghamroor: 62
Guler: 55
Palampur: 53
Gohar: 51
AMO Kangra: 51
Nahan(AWS): 47
Baijnath: 46
Nadaun: 43
Berthin: 40
Dharampur: 40
Arki: 40
Kasauli: 40
Nahan: 39
Kahu: 38
Jhandutta: 37
Bilaspur: 37
Baldwara: 36
Joginder Nagar: 35
Sunder Nagar: 31
Chamba: 31
Kalpa: 30
Solan: 29
Shimla: 23
Manali: 23
Dalhousie: 19
Hamirpur: 18
Bharmaur: 18
Keylong: 18
Bhuntar: 16
Mashobra: 12
Kothkhai: 7
Saloni: 7

UTTARAKHAND
Haridwar: 39
Dhanauri: 39
Kalsi: 32
Dehradun: 24
Jollygrant: 16
Ranichawri: 13
Rishikesh: 11
Bharsar: 5

PUNJAB
Nawanshahar: 46
Salern: 44
Roopnagar: 34
Nabha: 34
Fatehgarh Sahib: 33
Chandigarh: 33
Samarala: 31
Jalandhar: 31
Patiala: 31
Badi-Kaoran: 26
Ludhiana: 25
Rauni: 24
Kapurthala(Science City): 23
Gurdaspur: 21
Khanna: 20
Sangrur: 19
Mansa: 16
Kapurthala: 13
Bhatinda_Agro: 12
Moga: 8
Amritsar: 6

HARYANA
Ambala: 33
Panchkula: 30
Karnal: 29
Kaithal: 16

DELHI-NCR(min 1 mm)
Mungeshpur: 12
Najafgarh: 11
Ridge: 7
Noida: 4
Pusa(IARI): 3
Ayanagar: 3
Faridabad: 2
Safdarjung: 2
Palam: 2
Hindon: 2
Akshardham: 2
Pusa: 1
DU: 1
Pusa: 1

UTTAR PRADESH
Jhansi: 36
Moth: 27
Bharari: 24
Kanpur Dehat: 22
Mauranipur: 18
Meerut: 13
Lucknow(AWS): 13
Aurraiya: 12
Agra: 10
Aligarh: 10
Badaun: 10
Rath: 10
Baraut: 9
Kanpur: 8
Etah: 7
Sahabad: 7
Moradabad: 7
Jalesar: 5

RAJASTHAN
Churu: 18
Baswa: 9
Reni: 8
Deeg: 6
Alwar: 5
 

Monday, January 20, 2014

 Sent By pradeep...Rains in Rajasthan and Gujarat on Tuesday:

Rajasthan
---------
Sapotara - 70
Sikrai - 66
Mandrayal - 64
Gangdhar - 60
Shahpura - 60
Pirawa - 50
Sapau - 50
Bakani - 50 
Sarmathura - 50
Chhoti Sadri - 50
Sawai Madhopur - 50
Baseri - 50
Mahwa - 43
Dhariwad - 41
Pratapgarh - 40
Bundi - 40
Karauli - 40 
Kumher - 40 
Rajakhera - 40
Rashami - 39
Indergarh - 38
Kota - 35
Banswara - 35
Vansthali - 30
Sawai Madhopur - 30
Nainwan - 27
Chittorgarh - 24
Jhalawar - 20
Tonk - 20
Reni - 20

Gujarat
----------
Sankheda - 57
Fatepura - 45
Jhalod - 40
Vadodara - 35
Karjan - 30
Meghraj - 30
Thasra - 30
Balasinor - 30
Jafrabad - 25
Modasa - 20
Choryasi - 20
Limkheda - 20
Dhanera - 20
Dhansura - 20
Waghodia - 20
Mangrol - 20
Bayad - 20
Kathalal - 20
Mahudha - 20
Nadiad - 20
Chhota Udepur - 20

Wednesday 11.15 am...Rain covering most Parts of North/NE and West Delhi
Bharuch Pic today (Wednesday)




 On January 9, Lake Erie was reported to be 90 percent ice covered, and nearly a quarter of the surface area of the five Great Lakes was covered....See Image on International Page.

Tuesday was cloudy with some drizzling..and as expected, the day hight was 28.5c at Scruz and 26c at Colaba. Colaba measured 0.9 mms in the day. Vagaries saw 0.6 mms from 8.30 am till night.
As the rain belt moves East, Mumbai will be partly cloudy on Wednesday. Chances of light drizzle in some parts...clearing completely by night.

Some parts of Karachi witnessed light drizzles late night on Tuesday.

Delhi NCR will have one more rainy day on Wednesday ( approx 10 mms). Tuesday saw some showers with 5 mms of rain.
RK Chaudhary sends these pics of Tuesday ,21st Jan rain from Noida...on Inter Active Page

Posted Tuesday Morning: Light drizzles in Mumbai. Traces recorded at Colaba and Scruz..mintemp at colaba 22.5c and 21.1c at Scruz...Dull and smoggy morning Pics of Tuesday morning from Mumbai




Forecast and Weather for 21st january and 22nd January:(Posted Monday Evening)

J-4 follows J-3...More rain/snow for the North after a cold spell and wintry weather, Another Western Disturbance, J-4, now lies as a trough over the 58E line, and will move Eastwards, tilting towards the North.
An UAC over South Rajasthan and Gujarat, will remain stationary,and would merge into the WD trough on Tuesday, 21st. Simultaniuosly, another Line of Wind discontinuity lies over the Arabian Sea off the West coast, and this wouls also move Eastwards towards the coastline.

Resultantly, we would see a rain belt tilting form the Gujarat coast North Eastwards.
Except in the extreme North, dry weather in Pakistan. Strong NE winds blowing in SE Sindh and Karachi on Tuesday, at 30 knts.

Tuesday Rains






























Wednesday Rains moving overall Eastwards and into Northern India and interior Maharshtra.



Mumbai: Weather getting cloudy and nights getting warmer ! Tuesday will be cloudy and 
day around 28/29c. Light drizzle in some parts by evening. 
Wednesday will also be cloudy after a rise in night temperatures. Wednesday may also see light rain in some parts .(Around 3-5 mms).
Sharp drop in temperatures from Thursday..

Outer townships may see some patchy moderate rains on these days. Around 5-7 mms in some parts.
Pune will be cloudy with rise in temperatures. An evening drizzle on Tuesday and some drizzles and light rains on Wednesday will add up to around 5 mms.
Aurangabad will be cloudy on Tuesday and overcast with drizzles and light rain on Wednesday..substantial rise in night temperatures to 18c.

Surat and Bharuch vicinity will get overcast skies and rain and drizzles on Tuesday ( Possible upto 5-7 mms)and Wednesday.

Delhi NCR sees the bulk of thunder showers from Tuesday evening thru Wednesday night. Possibly around 25 -30 mms. Max and min between 19c and 12c.

Kolkata, almost clear and dry, with days rising to 28c by mid week...

Mars Weather on Space News Page..from Rohit

Sunday, January 19, 2014

THE BILLION CLUB ..WEATHER .. 19 JAN 2014(24 HRS ENDING 8.30 AM)

A) CHINA AND SURROUNDING  WEATHER .. 19 JAN 2014 ..
Population :135 crores

The country carries 3 times baggage of land than India ..But more than half the country(western parts) is very sparsely populated..
Eastern China is as densely populated as India..
Most of China is in deep freeze..The lowest temp at a populated place was -37 c at Mohe ..

CHINA TEMP IN C 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

B) SOUTH ASIA WEATHER.. 19 JAN 2014..
Population : 170 crores

The most populated region on Earth is saved from the blast of cold north Asian air by the Himalayas .. Though northern Himalayan parts of the region has freezing weather ..


TEMP IN C 

Saturday, January 18, 2014

AFTER FOG, WINTER RAIN BROUGHT COLD DAY CONDITIONS...

ALMOST ALL PLACES IN NORTHWEST PLAINS ARE UNDER COLD DAY CONDITIONS. AFTER FOG, RAIN BROUGHT THE DAY(MAXIMUM) TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL. HAILSTORM WAS ALSO REPORTED FROM FEW PLACES OF UP & MP. SNOWFALL IN HP & UTTARAKHAND. YESTERDAY, NEW DELHI RECORDED A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 12.9 °C, LOWEST OF THE SEASON.


DELHI-NCR

Yesterday, Delhi-NCR witnessed the coldest day of the season with all places recording maximum temperature below 14°C. Pitampura recorded the lowest maximum temperature of just 8.1°C. Also rain was reported from many parts of the region. Moderate to rather heavy rainfall was reported from the eastern suburbs. RK Chaudhary from Greater Noida reported heavy rainfall there. Today. also the weather remained dark & dull with Safdarjung recording a maximum of 15.7°C and Palam at a high of just 16°C.

                          (VIDEO TAKEN BY RK CHAUDHARY AT GREATER NOIDA AROUND 12:40AM)    
                                    
UTTAR PRADESH
Whole state received moderate to heavy rainfall leading to low maximum temperatures.
Hail storm occurred at Agra, Gunnar, Sahaswan, Karwi, Lucknow, Orai, Jhansi, Kanpur.Very heavy rainfall occurred at Soraon-150 mm. Many places reported day temps below 18°C.  
 
PUNJAB & HARYANA
Heavy rainfall was reported from Northeast Haryana & adjoining Punjab. Capital Chandigarh also recorded heavy rainfall of 45.7 mm till today morning. Nearby Ambala also reported heavy rainfall of 45.7 mm. Rainfall was mostly confined to eastern parts of both the states. Day temperatures are below normal by 7°C to 9°C. Karnal recorded a maximum temp of 10.4°C on Friday. Ludhiana & Amritsar also received light rain.
 
J&K, HP and UTTARAKHAND
The weather in J&K remained mainly dry whereas HP & Uttarakhand received fairly widespread rainfall/snowfall. Leh stood at -11°C today. Summer capital dropped to -3.5°C today. Shimla recorded 15 cm snow till today morning with minimum sliding down to 0°C. Nahan in HP also got 41.2 mm of rain. Solan 22 mm with a low of 2.2°C. Bharmaur recorded the lowest temp in the state yesterday at -13.1°C. In Uttarakhand, Mukteshwar recorded 2.3 cm of snow. Dehradun recorded 47 mm rain with maximum of 9.2°C today. Haridwar got 20 mm of rain. Hill station Mussorie also got snowfall.
             

                                                (VIEW OF MUSSORIE FROM DEHRADUN)
                                            (Yesterday)                                        (Today)STATE        PLACE       MAX TEMP(FRIDAY)  RAINFALL   MAX TEMP(SATURDAY)
Delhi-NCR  Safdarjung       12.9C                4.2 mm               15.7C
Delhi-NCR  Palam              13.4C                0.8 mm               16.0C
Delhi-NCR  Hindon             13.2C               15.8 mm              15.7C
Delhi-NCR  Lodhi Road       12.7C                5.7 mm               15.7C
Delhi-NCR  Ayanagar          12.9C               0.4 mm                15.0C
UP             Kanpur                15.2C                   67.2 mm                  17.4C
UP               Lucknow             15.9C                   36.3 mm                   17.1C
UP               Meerut                 15.3C                   43.6 mm                   13.3C
UP               Bareilly                18.0C                   27.9 mm                   15.9C
UP               Allahabad            16.1C                   29.6 mm                   18.1C
UP               Agra                     15.5C                   10.8 mm                  16.0C
Punjab         Amritsar               13.6C                   2.4 mm                    16.4C 
Punjab         Patiala                  14.4C                   31.6 mm                  15.2C
Punjab         Ludhiana              13.4C                   17.4 mm                  14.0C
Chandigarh Chandigarh           16.2C                   45.7 mm                  14.0C
Haryana       Ambala                14.2C                   45.7 mm                  15.0C
Haryana       Hisar                    12.8C                       NIL                      15.0C
Haryana       Karnal                  10.4C                   29.4 mm                  13.2C
       

MAHARASHTRA TEMP ( 18 JAN 2013) .. COASTAL REGIONS (MUMBAI & NORTH KONKAN..) REMAIN COOLER THAN MOST INTERIOR PARTS OF MAHARASHTRA


 As mentioned by Abhijit in his update below ,.. COASTAL REGIONS (MUMBAI & NORTH KONKAN..) HAVE REMAINED COOLER THAN MOST INTERIOR PARTS OF MAHARASHTRA ..

Coolest city was Nashik (madhya Maharashtra) at 27 / 06 ..It has rained in parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha ..

MUMBAI AND SURROUNDING REGIONS TEMP 18 JAN 2014 :
It was cool ,windy with sunny ,clear blue skies ..
PALGHAR(Mumbai Region) RECORDED 9.4 C (aws reading) 



TODAY MAHARASHTRA SAW MIX WEATHER CONDITIONS.

Konkan & Madhya Maha saw chilly weather with the cold North winds blowing over the region as WD crosses in North India.

Some min temp below for today from all regions of Maha (18-1-2014):

Nashik 6.4c (below normal by 3c)
Mahabaleshwar 9.2c (below normal by 4c)
Pune 9.9c
Jalgaon 10.6c
Malegaon 10.8c
Satara 12.8c
Mumbai: S’cruz 13.2c (lowest min temp for current season till today)
Palghar AWS 9.4c (first single digit min temp today around Mumbai region for current season)
Thane AWS 14.3c
Murud AWS 14.4c
Dahanu 14.3c
Harnai 18.2c
Ratnagiri 16.6c

Badlapur 10.8°C (private observation). Also Dense fog engulfed the city with visibility dropping to 50mtrs from 5.30am to 8.30am period today.Some pics below of Badlapur :





Marathwada saw above normal min temps due to cloudy weather from WD trough tail.


Aurangabad 15.0c (above normal by 4c)
Solapur 20.0c (above normal by 4c)


Vidarbha saw rain due to trough slanting towards the SE with an induced low around Northern MP/Adjoining UP from WD. So min temp got raised there by couple of degrees from normal level.

Yeotmal 15.4c with trace rain amount
Nagpur 18.6c (above normal by 6c) with 3.8mm rainfall till 8.30am today
Gondia 17.4c (above normal by 4c)
Akola 17.6c (above normal by 4c) with 0.5mm rainfall till 8.30am today
Chandrapur 20.4c (above normal by 5c)

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

COLD DAY CONDITIONS IN MOST PARTS OF NORTHWEST PLAINS....

Cold day conditions continued in most parts of Northern plains with day temperature going down by 7°C to 10°C below normal. New Delhi which saw a maximum of 22.1°C on Tuesday, settled at 16.5°C today, four notches below normal. Cold icy winds continued to sweep across Uttar Pradesh & Bihar for the third consecutive day with day temperatures dropping way below normal. However, due to foggy conditions night temperatures are above normal in most parts.

 DAY(MAXIMUM) TEMPERATURE IN IMPORTANT CITIES OF UP & BIHAR TODAY...
LUCKNOW: 15.8 C (-6)
ALLAHABAD: 15.3°C (-8)
MEERUT: 13.9°C (-8)
VARANASI: 15.0°C (-8)
GORAKHPUR: 16.2°C (-7)
MORADABAD: 13.5°C (-7)
BAREILLY: 15.6°C (-5)
KANPUR: 15.6°C (-7)
AGRA: 13.5°C (-9)
ALIGARH: 11.8°C (-8)
GAYA: 15.1°C (-8)
PATNA: 14.8°C (-8)
BHAGALPUR: 15.2°C (-9)
PURNEA: 15.9°C (-8)
FORBESGANJ: 15.8°C (-7)

Delhi-NCR saw a steep fall in day temperatures with all places recording maximum below 18°C.
                                         (PIC TAKEN BY RK CHAUDHARY AT GREATER NOIDA AROUND 2PM)            
SAFDARJUNG: 16.5°C
PALAM: 17.2°C
FARIDABAD: 13.7°C
HINDON: 14.8°C
LODHI ROAD: 16.0°C
RIDGE: 16.2°C
NOIDA: 15.3°C
INDIRAPURAM: 15.4°C
AYANAGAR: 17.0°C
JAFARPUR: 15.7°C
MUNGESHPUR: 16.0°C
DU: 15.2°C

Haryana & few parts of Punjab also engulfed under dense fog today. Hisar recorded a maximum of 17.0°C, also recorded a minimum of 3.5°C(lowest in the plains), three notches below normal. Amritsar on the other hand saw a sunny day with maximum settling at 20.4°C today. Also minimum at 5.6°C,two notches above normal. Capital Chandigarh saw a minimum of 8.8°C today.

In the mountains, Leh recorded minimum of -12.0°C, Pahalgam: -6.4°C, Gulmarg: -7.6°C, Srinagar: 1.5°C, Katra; 8.7°C & Jammu: 7.7°C.
Shimla at 2.2°C, Manali: 2.0°C, Kullu: 4.5°C, Dharamsala: 5.4°C, Solan: 3.4°C & Una at 4.4°C.
Few places in both the states recorded light rain/snow in the past 24 hours.
Mussorie & Nainital at 3.1°C & 5.9°C, Dehradun at 7.3°C & Tehri at 3.0°C.

Also Kolkata in East India saw cold day conditions with day temperatures dropping below normal by 6-8°C in parts of the city. Dumdum recorded a maximum of 18.6°C, six notches below normal.
                                         (PIC TAKEN BY SANTOSH SUBRAMANIAN AT KOLKATA TODAY)

Monday, January 13, 2014

Outlook for Mumbai from 14th January :

14th January, Sankrant, and we need good winds for kite flying. So, late morning/afternoon will see NW winds at 15 kmph, and turning to winds from the North and around 15 kmph, but getting calm late evening/night. Temperature around 28/29c and morning will be around 18/19c at Scruz and 20/21c at Colaba.
Similar weather for Wednesday, brisk breeze, days around 29c.
Thursday 16th evening will be windy with WNW winds, and moist winds bringing in dew and some clouding in the night.
Friday morning will be foggy in the outer areas, with low around 16/17c in the suburbs. Windy in the day, with a high at 28c.
Friday partly cloudy specially in the outer regions.

A WD, is expected to cross the Himalayan States on the 16th and 17th. This WD will have a southerly trough in the plains. The trough slanting towards the SE (from NW), with an induced low around Northern MP/Adjoining UP, will have a favourable upper SW winds in the Southern and SE segment.
Rainfall is likely in MP, adjoining North Mah, and adjoining Western Up on 17th jan. 
Delhi NCR will be cloudy on 16th and with precipitation in some areas on 17th. 

Northern regions of Pakistan get rain/snow from the system, but rest of Pakistan remains dry, as the induced ( upper) low forms over India, and contributes most of the rain in the East of the WD.
Karachi will be dry, and between 25 and 11c...Thursday will be very windy, with gusty NE winds blowing.
Kathmandu may finally see its January dry spell broken..Rainfall expected in Kathmandu from the system on the 18th and 19th.
Due to J-3 pushing Eastwards, Heavy Rains expected in Dubai on Saturday 18th.

I will be away on a Desert Wildlife trip to the Rann of Kutch from 14th January for 5 days. The above forecast is based on logs and assumption of Tuesday's synoptic situation. Could have slight variations in strength and a day here and there.

But Abhijit and Arpit will be keeping Vagaries "alive" with their write ups on the Maharashtra and Northern situations.

Saturday, January 11, 2014

MUMBAI WEATHER..ITS COOL AND WINDY .. 11 JAN 2014.. (CHECK OUT THE TEMP GRADIENT ALONG THE WEST COAST)

North East Monsoon -- Summary...On Pradeep's Page


IT WAS ABSOLUTELY SUNNY WITH CLEAR DEEP BLUE SKIES ,DRY,COOL AND WINDY AT MUMBAI..


HIGH TEMP GRADIENT ALONG WEST COAST