Thursday, June 13, 2013

Much Awaited Monsoon Analysis to Date  from ..None Other than Our GSB..on "Stats and Analysis" Page..Just Recieved

On Saturday Evening, Vortex Forms Off the West Coast of India near North/Central Konkan...See Current Weather Page here
Heavy rains lashing Central and Southern Mumbai since last nigh, with thunder /Lightening.
Scruz measured 57 mms in 21 hrs till 05.30 am IST.  ...48 mms till Saturday mid night  and 9 mms  after mid night till 05.30 am into Sunday, Vagaries measured 75 mms till Saturday mid night and 32 mms after mid night till 07.30 am Sunday,

BB-3 Current Position (In Yellow)  as on Saturday evening Redrawn on the 14th June Track Chart (Moved along "designated   Path as original  in the Thursday blog below)..




Brief Saturday, 15th June Report as on 5.30 pm for Mah:..Mumbai Page
Lakes Levels supplying Water to Mumbai City as on 14th June..See Mumbai Page

Posted on Thursday Night @ 11.00 pm IST

The axis of the Monsoon runs from SE Sindh thru Southern Rajasthan MP through Centre of BB-3 and into the Bay.The western end of the axis is "supported" by the low which normally appears in the Southern Sindh region of Pakistan (to support" the axis),some time around Mid July.
This would normally be the natural position of the axis in mid-July. 
The continuing SW winds into the UAC over Punjab have "introduced" rains in the newly formed Low over the SE Sindh region. Tyronne reports of good showers in Karachi.

Now, with BB-3 as a well marked Low, we will see this system tracking along the axis route in the next 3 days.






Saturday, very heavy rains in Vidharbha and adjoining Northern AP.Heavy rains in Western Vidharbha  Hyderabad in AP can receive heavy showers too.

Sunday and Saurashtra and Eastern Gujarat may see very heavy rains.Places may see > 125-150 mms.
Almost negligible rain in South-Eastern Peninsula


Mumbai: Friday will be cloudy with heavy showers interspersed with gaps in rainfall.Rainfall increasing on Friday night.
By Saturday morning, Mumbai may get around 60 mms.
Saturday will be overcast with intermittent showers and heavy spells. 
Increasing rains again leading to a wet Sunday.Saturday will get around 60 mms.
Sunday may well see 80-90 mms of rains.
Pune: Friday and Saturday partly cloudy with light showers in some parts. Sunday cloudy and increase in rains, maybe upto 25-30 mms on Sunday.

Surat will see an increase in rainfall from Saturday Night.Sunday i see a possibility of >100 mms.

Next 3 days for Delhi NCR will see a Thunder Shower in some parts or vicinity. Rainfall chances are more on Saturday and Sunday, with around 25 mms possible.
.
Karachi which has seen some rain from the Low, will see a decrease in rainfall from Friday itself. Generally cloudy and some rain in vicinity on Friday. 

97 comments:

Puneet Bangera said...

Sir.As BB-3 is nearing to guj coast on 16th june.So N.konkan should get more rainfall than S.konkan.

Puneet Bangera said...

Sir.As BB-3 is nearing to guj coast on 16th june.So N.konkan should get more rainfall than S.konkan.

rajesh said...

Puneet: Formation of vortex possible in a strong off shore trough in S.Konkan region..yes, depends where the vortex forms, but as of now i feel it could be S.Konakan

Ron said...

back from karwar/gokarna trip..didn't see the sun at all..it rained consistently..anways bbc weather is predicting heavy rains for Mumbai on sunday..

Nilesh Ladhad said...

a big let down by BB-3. No significant rain in sambalpur

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir , if the vortex forms towards the north konkan area, will the the rains will be more in Mumbai then what you have estimated 90mm.

Tyrone said...

Rajesh, With this low hovering over South East Pakistan and approaching BB-3, won't there be chances for some rains in KHI end of this week?

rohitaros said...

Low avg. Sunshine hours for Mumbai in monsoons -

June : 3-4 hrs (out of 13 hrs)
Jul:2-3 hrs (out of 13 hrs)
Aug:2-3 hrs (out of 12.5 hrs)
Sep:5-6 hrs (out of 12 hrs)

Non monsoon months : 8-10 hrs (out of 11 -13 hrs)

Nimish Thaker said...

Serious rainfall here at Juhu - Andheri (West) area since the last 30 minutes - it's accompanied with lot of wind gusts.

Rajeshbhai, looking at the COLA forecasts for today morning it looks like Mumbai should be getting around 300 - 400 mm of rains till Monday night. Ofcourse, the COLA forecasts as we know can change pretty fast, will have to wait and see how things pan out over the weekend. The BBC shows really heavy rains on Sunday evening around Mumbai and up to Surat.

rajesh said...

Sam/Nimish: yes, if the vortex by chance form around N.Konkan, then the heavy rain colour code would shift to N.Konkan region. So, we would know by Saturday evening. Shall keep vagaries posted as much as possible.
Potey ji: See this link of my article in Lokmat Times. Mentioned a few lines for Akola
Go to page 5 and click on article "Widespread rain Expected"
http://epaper.lokmat.com/lokmattimes/epapermain.aspx?queryed=78

Abhijit said...

Today after 8.30am no rain spell yet in Badlapur.

rajesh said...

Yes. And I am speaking upto Sunday night only..not Monday yet...depends where and how the vortex will move..

sam khan said...

moderate rains going on here in Vasai for past 2 hrs

Abhijit said...

Heavy rain with strong gusty West winds in Badlapur from 1 pm to 1.30 pm. Now light top medium rain here

SVT said...

Heavy rain in Dadar since morning. Its got even more heavier since 1:45 pm. I can see vortex or UAC off Mumbai coast in satellite image. This unexpected heavy rains could last another 3-4 hours.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

now what in store for the sambalpur. Today not a drop of rain.

Nimish Thaker said...

Looking at the current Doppler radar it looks like the Heaviest of rains are currently between Goregaon to the North and Mahalaxmi to the South in Mumbai.

Puneet Bangera said...

Got heavy rains in dombivli from 12:15 pm to 12:45 pm & then Light to moderate rains continuing till now

Puneet Bangera said...

Got heavy rains in dombivli from 12:15 pm to 12:45 pm & then Light to moderate rains continuing till now

Abhijit said...

Santacruz records 39mm rain till 2.30pm today from 8.30am onwards

Atul Naik said...

Been a dry day so far here in Goa, with plenty of sunshine! The rains really seem to have shifted North? Rajeshbhai does the prediction of rains South of south Konkan change due to vortex formation around Mumbai area?

Puneet Bangera said...

sir.Assume if the vortex forms in S.konkan region then the rainfall estimate is 150-200mm for S.konkan but then why N.konkan would get only 75-100mm of rain rather than having 100-150mm.I mean the difference is large between N.konkan & S.konkan ,on being a strong offshore trough in konkan region.

sam khan said...

pouring cats and dogs in Vasai at the moment.

rajesh said...

Rainfall till 5.30 pm Friday : Scruz 88.5 mms, Colaba 31.8 mms ( avg 60 mms.) Vagaries 32 mms.

Vortex ? Not yet ..

rajesh said...

Mumbai rainfall will go slow after 7.30 pm on Friday (for the Day)...So avg till 5.30 pm is 60 mms, may not go too high..(60 mms avg forecasted till Sat morning by vagaries)

emkay said...

Seems Barbour line already crawling

Atul Naik said...

Rainfall at Panjim Goa on Friday June 14 from 8.30 am to 5.30 pm as per IMD - 0.6 mm!

sset said...

Almost entire south -interior KAR, TN, Rayalseema "NO RAIN". KAR may enter into 4th year of Drought. Every year we see decreasing and drying in south. Sri Lanka is facing similar trend.

Again it shows GUJ/RAJ getting wetter every year -benefit both from Bay and Arabian sea.

Thane/Vikhroli rained non-stop. It is exactly a week since rain hit Mumbai- almost touching 400mm-500mm. If it follows similar trend like last Saturday-sunday - another dump of 300mm - figures may reach nearly 1000mm in extreme case. By june itself lakes will be full??????

Shitij said...

Is there any chance that vortex may form around S. gujarat???

SVT said...

Hi Rajesh! I'm just looking at some of the projected rainfall for south Gujarat from Sunday to Tuesday. It could be total of more than 300-400 mm of rainfall. That just sound unbelievable amount of rain. You also expecting same amount or less? And what would be forecasted rainfall for those 3 days for Mumbai? Any chance of rain drifting south to Mumbai?

emkay said...

Is there a change to predictions for today and Sunday. Now that newspapers are flashing heavy predictions, sun may come out for mumbai

rajesh said...

On Saturday, Mumbai can expect Heavy downpours in the pre noon session. Commuters may take precautions as heavy rains may commence around 11 am.
Rainfall till 8.30 am Saturday: Scruz 101.5 mms, Colaba 39.8 mms. Avg 70 mms , almost as estimated on vagaries (vagaries estimate 60 mms)...vagaries recorded 50.1 mms in the same period.

rajesh said...

svt: certainly not 400 mms for s.gujarat, but i have put > 100 mms for Surat on sunday..monday onwards i will put up later...Mumbai i estimate around 90-100 mms avg for sunday

emkay said...

Is it expected to give a break in the evening for the journey back.

sset said...

As per IMD Mumbai rains (since last 1 week)Santa Cruz - 520mm, Colaba - 500mm
With Rajesh sir prediction of an average 100-150mm per day for today/tomorrow than figures likely to touch 800mm. Most bountiful june -> > 1000mm

Abhijit said...

Thane District rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today (15-06-2013) minimum 30mm :

Thane 95.4
Kalyan 66
Murbad 32
Bhivandi 41
Vasai 53
Shahapur 77.2
Palghar 160.2
Javhar 42
Ulhasnagar 42
Ambernath 44

Raigad District rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today(15-06-2013)

Alibaug 72
Panvel 96.2
Karjat 60.7
Khalapur 47
Uran 93
Sudhagad 49
Pen 135.4
Mahad 94.1
Mangaon 83
Roha 96
Poladpur 130
Murud 238
Shriwardhan 86
Mahasala 152.4
Tala 230

Abhijit said...

@ SSET Mumbai rainfall from 1st June 2013 to 8.30am today(15-06-2013):

Santacruz 516.9mm
Colaba 399.3mm

Vagaries 310.6mm

SVT said...

Thanks Rajesh! Good to know South Gujarat rain may be over 300 mm. That certainly would have resulted in deadly floods.

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir, why does it looks like moisture coming in from the Arabian sea & Bay of bengal at the later stage of the monsoon will get pulled away, hope i am wrong on this.

sam khan said...

currently heavy rains have taken a break

sam khan said...

heavy rains here at Vasai for past 1 hour

Puneet Bangera said...

Heavy rains at Dombivli now.

Atul Naik said...

Another unusual dry day in the middle of June for Goa. Rainfall at Panjim today from 8:30 am to 5:30 pm was 9.5 mm. 24 hrs ending 8:30 am today was 4.3 mm bringing seasonal total to 412 mm, still +67.4 mm departure from normal.

sset said...

Karnataka worries started - lack of rain in Kodagu - birth place for Cauvery.

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-06-10/mysore/39871884_1_predictions-kabini-normal-rainfall.

Any WD in pipeline to make matters worse?


Navi Mumbai raining non stop. Santa Cruz receives 100mm. Mumbai rain exceeds Goa.

rajesh said...

Brief Saturday, 15th June Report as on 5.30 pm for Mah:

Cold day in Vid with days below normal by 11-12c. Coldest day at yeotmal at 24c, which is 12c below normal,and 36 mms rainfall, Amraoti at 25.2c was 11.7c below normal and Wardha with 70 mms rain was 25.8c, below by 11.1
Aurangabad was 25.4c (Max) and 8c below normal.
Mahableshwar recieved 72 mms and day's high was 18.7c (3c below normal).Jalgaon received 14 mms.
Ratnagiri managed 56 mms and while vagaries recieved 24 mms, Scruz and Colaba managed 10 mms each. (Vagaries has now gauged up 35 mms till 7 pm. Raining at time of report).

Sam: sorry, your query not clear..?

Nimish Thaker said...

Massive squall currently on at Juhu. While the rain is moderate since the last 45 mins there is tremendous wind gust since the last 15-20 mins. Has the Vortex formed? What could be the reason of such sudden gusty weather?

rajesh said...

NT: very heavy rains here currently. Approaching rains can bring squalls as the water (rain) displaces air when nearing the destination..
SSET: You must have rread in a previous post that due to easterly jet streams up to far north, WDs will be a difficult possibility

sam khan said...

i m sorry sir for not being clear, what i meant was some forecasters are predicting that the monsoon moisture from both the sea's will be sucked in by some other way. so i was confused,whether the monsoon will be weaken along the west coast, hereafter for the remainder of monsoon season.

emkay said...

Rajeshbhai, I caught you out here. See one of your comments above of yesterday where you say that by Saturday evening we will know reg vortex

rajesh said...

emkay: Elementary English my dear Emkay.."we will know" about vortex..exactly, we know something about the possibility of formation due to the 700 hp trough which i mentioned to you..Emkay, we know about it now...not committed today that it WILL form..try again Emkay :-)

Abhijit said...

Ratnagiri 70mm ,Mumbai SCZ 44mm
& Pune 15mm till 8.30pm today for
last 12hrs.

Abhijit said...


Here medium rain in Badlapur from
7.30pm onwards. Varying between
light & medium only. Heavy just for
15mins only..

sset said...

I think Rajesh sirs prediction of increasing rain towards sunday/Monday - navi Mumbai raining like last week - continuous waterfalls - already navi Mumbai hills are showing spectacular water shows!!! Rumbling thunderstorms. We need some sunshine and break.

rajesh said...

Rains much less last 15 mins ..rainfall at vagaries :8.30 am - 10 pm IST Saturday: 69.1 mms

rajesh said...

sset: I have given forecast till Sunday..not mentioned Monday..

Abhijit said...

Much awaited heavy rain reached
here in Badlapur. Last 20mins having
heavy rain here so the DTH signal are
gone.

sam khan said...

very heavy rains with gusty winds have finally stopped in Vasai.rained for 3 hrs non stop

sam khan said...

SSET, what is the forecast for tuesday are we going to see waterfalls on tuesday 400-500mm rains in Navi Mumbai..hhhahahaahahha

Amith Bharadwaj said...

wat abt s. interior karnataka rajesh sir?? Its almost dry here...

SVT said...

Yep. Cola showing Vortex just south of Mumbai coast. Rajesh, you still sticking to rainfall of 80-90 mm on sunday or it could be more?

sam khan said...

heavy rains started at Vasai

rajesh said...

svt: Technically, Saturday got around 60 mms avg between scruz and clb, so as per estimate. Sunday. lets see, its pouring now, and here i have measures 32 mms into Sunday.
If vortex sustains another 12 hrs from Sunday morning, Mumbai can cross 100 mms...
My estimate for vortex was for South Konkan..but developed Central/North Konkan..glad it came correct at least.

rajesh said...

Nilesh: Pradeep tells us of good, very heavy rains 300 kms around Sambhalpur. His report:"Thuamul Rampur in Orissa records 666 mm in 48 hrs from the Low Pressure Area

As per SRC, the other rainfall are Jaipatna 402 mm in 48 hrs , Kalampur recorded rainfall of 393 mm and Junagarh 357 mm on Thursday and Friday combined."

emkay said...

Congratulations Rajesh sir, let me admit that you are the most valued friend I have acquired over cyber world all these years. It is a joy seeing predictions coming true. By the way seeing your mention of trough being more like a mid July alignment, would it have an implication on actual July looking forward. It is a critical month july

Abhijit said...

Here silent medium rains some times
heavy all night in Badlapur .No
lightening or thundering here

anant said...

Moderate to Heavy Intermittent showers in Pune since 8 PM yesterday night. I hope the Ghats surrounding Pune, would have received copious rains to fill up the dams to some extent.

anant said...

Moderate to Heavy Intermittent showers in Pune since 8 PM yesterday night. I hope the Ghats surrounding Pune, would have received copious rains to fill up the dams to some extent.

emkay said...

Mr anant seeing yesterdays radar was thinking of driving to other side of ghats to see some sunlight after a week of clouds here, needs to raise the mood of my old age parents :)

sam khan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sam khan said...

Rajesh sir,
Glad to see the vortex formed towards north konkan , it has really helped Mumbai ,Vasai and all north konkan regions receive bountiful rains.and also looks like rains in Mumbai will intensify further as the day progresses.

Vinod said...

Yes it is raining since early morning..

anant said...

Pune Recorded 72.7 MM since Saturday.

k.p said...

sir when will the rains decrease in mumbai by monday or tuesday.n we have may be crossed the mark of 387mm of rain of your average for month of june.what is your forecaste for the comming week for mumbai n gujrat

Nimish Thaker said...

Thunder and lightning now on at Juhu. Till now there was no thundering.

SVT said...

Extremly heavy rains in Dadar since early morning. Rajesh can you like to post next 6 hours forecast for Mumbai? Things are looking grim.

emkay said...

Oh gosh, the vortex is missing now in latest COLA, seems it has merged in the trough

Unknown said...

Mr.Rajesh - This is my first comment on your blog though I havr been following it for some months now. Firstly, please accept my compliments for your fantastic weather forecasting and analysis. I live in Mumbai and can clearly see the last few days rainfall following your forecast. Becomes easy to plan my day. I just have a question for you. I always thought that thunder and lightning were prevalent during the onset and withdrawal phase of the monsoon. But we see this happening today too in Mumbai though the monsoon is set. Any reasons for this? I like to read abiut weather but my technical knowledge is limited. So please excuse me if you find this a stupid question.- Suresh

sset said...

Amazing Mumbai rains. Times report says Mumbai rains EXCEED 20% of annual average in just 7 days. Tomorrow average may exceed 700mm. Seems all records are broken.
Navi Mumbai non stop rains since yesterday. Guess thane-belapur it would have exceeded 150-200mm. Just like july/august rains. Will we see sun? Is maharashtra next Cheerapunji?

Pawan - I had similar concern when I was in BANG for 5 years- most of the time june-sept we see no rains at all (only drought) oct if NE monsoon is kind it rains little else gone with the wind - change in weather pattern much of south is becoming dry(sorry to say).l Worst rain Mysore/Mandya only 23mm since june 01.

Abhijit said...

Santacruz records 35mm rain from 8.30am to 11.30am today.

rajesh said...

emkay: Vortex at 700 hp persists, slightly West of Mumbai as it approx centre, and extends a bit southwards and Westwards.In fact it has etended to 500 hp, hence the thundering

Suresh: Since we have a vortex, it means a low pressure at 500/700 hp..so clouds become multi level. Causing thunder.Be free to ask, shall convey as much as i can

Unknown said...

Thanks for the clarification on thunder. Its really pouring "lions and tigers" in Mumbai so far. But there seems to be the right pauses in between, so hopefully there may not be any major flooding. Suresh

sset said...

Poor birds are full wet. They need good shake and unfurl feathers under warm sun....
Emkayji u are right without sun we are also having joint pains...for aged people it will be more.. but rains have there beauty (too much...)

Vinod said...

Sir,
Intensity of rain has increased since 1.30 pm. Do we expect the rain to continue till evening with same intensity.

Bhavik Shah said...

SW monsoon covered entire Indian sub-continent on 16 June ... Normal date is 15 July. 30 days earlier than normal date. Is this a record?

sam khan said...

As predicted by rejash sir the second round of very heavy rains have started here at Vasai. earlier the rains were moderate

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir,
are the rains going to intensify towards the evening? suprisingly colaba is leading santacruz in heavy rains.

Abhijit said...

Santacruz 87mm from 8.30am till 2.30pm today.

Colaba would be easily above 150mm !! As 122mm in Colaba was from 8.30am to 11.30am today

SVT said...

Vortex has shifted to west. Rain should ease off now.

sam khan said...

I may be wrong" but it looks like rain will increase towards northern Mumbai later.

sset said...

IMD still maintains (red alert) over Mumbai - till next 48 hours. Today central line almost cancelled.

Atul Naik said...

Bright sunny day again in Goa. Just traces of rain since morning. It appears that the monsoon is on a holiday here!

Shripad Nadiger said...

It's started to rain here again in Mira road ,North Mumbai...after a brief pause...:)

GSB said...

Thane monthly rainfall crosses 600mm according to envirocon figures. That's Almost 25% of the annual total !!

Abhijit said...

Santacruz recorded 99mm rain from 8.30am till 5.30pm today. With this June total crosses 700mm mark

sset said...

Mumbai still has 15 days to go for june end - easily can reach 1000mm. Mumbai exceeds Ratnagiri,Mahabaleshwar,Mangalore,Augumbe.....

Touching 700-800mm is a quite a figure- BANG 1 year of rain(if it rains)

Navi Mumbai again raining like waterfalls!

sset said...

Mumbai still has 15 days to go for june end - easily can reach 1000mm. Mumbai exceeds Ratnagiri,Mahabaleshwar,Mangalore,Augumbe.....

Touching 700-800mm is a quite a figure- BANG 1 year of rain(if it rains)

Navi Mumbai again raining like waterfalls!

Shripad Nadiger said...

Very heavy rains in North mumbai....!!!...would this continue ??