Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
The distinguishing part is the centre, though having 35 knts winds, is relatively free of major clouding. A spiral band, 360 kms to the NW of the centre, is moving towards coastal Sindh. System is still at 998 mb with cyclonic winds of 35 knts and gusting to 45 knts.
AS-4 is set to start weakening from Wednesday. The clouds spiral rushing into coastal Sindh will produce extremely stuffy weather in Karachi tonite (Tuesday). Possiblity of light rain will make it uncomfortable. For Karachi, I do not expect the rain to persist much beyond mid day on Wednesday, though cloudy weather will linger on for another 2 days.
Another system is forming in the Southern Bay at 89E. Still in the initial stage, will discuss the developments on Wednesday.
Mumbai was the limit on Tuesday. Hot, humid and partly cloudy ! Produced the most unbearable weather conditions.
With the high hittting 36.8c, +4c above the normal, Mumbai was the hottest in Asia on Tuesday. Thankfully it is not the hottest in the Northern Hemisphere, where Tambacounda (Senegal) was at 39c.
For India, the 2nd hottest was a far 35.2c at Surat.
Hot and humid partly cloudy weather expected into Wednesday and Thursday for Mumbai, with the day hitting 35c. Night will be an unbearable 26c. Expect a few degrees drop in temperature on Friday
April normal nights are 26c for Mumbai, and the nights rise to 27c after the first week of May. The normal day for April is 33c, and 34/35c for May.
Mumbai was in the 37c - 26c range on Tuesday ! 90% humidity at Colaba on Tuesday morning and 76% in the evening ! S'Cruz was at an avg humidity of 65%.
Please notice the Sat. image showing a developing eye near the mentioned centre. Image of 10.00 am IST Tuesday. See here
Situation as at 10 am IST Tuesday, AS-4, almost at cyclone status with winds at 35 knts. Located at 15.8N and 66.8E, mid way in the Arabian Sea between Oman and India. Moved NW.
Chances of Rain for Mumbai from AS-4…See Mumbai Page
Monday, November 28, 2011
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Mumbai will be cloudy on Monday, with light rain in some parts of the city. Tuesday will be partly cloudy with high clouds. I had mentioned that "winter" will go for a "toss" Sure enough ! Mumbai saw a low temperature of 26c on Sunday, after having 21c in the previous 2/3 nights.The High was at 36c.
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Friday, November 25, 2011
Friday,25th: Partly cloudy with high clouds. Temperature range: 32c - 22c
Saturday,26th: Partly cloudy: 32c - 24c
Sunday,27th: Cloudy and windy: 31c - 25c
Monday,28th: Cloudy. Light rain in some parts of the city. 30c - 25c.
Overcast Friday in
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Posted on Wednesday, 23rd, Evening:
Keeping Sunday's weekly forecast in mind, and following it up:
We see the
Should descend to sea level as a low in the next 2 days.
Though less than expected, T.N. will receive heavy rains from Thursday and rains spreading inland.Inland, districts in the East, SE and the Northern regions of the state will receive good precipitation Friday/Saturday.
Chennai will get precipitation amounting to 5-7 cms on Friday, increasing to 7-9 cms on Saturday, with squally winds from the NE.
By Friday, the low (should be around 1002 mb then) will just enter the
See the Vagaries Forecast Map put up.Rainfall colours are as per the key.
Its my personal view that the system will deepen to 1000 mb and move NW to fizzle out as shown.
A fresh W.D. is moving across the North regions, and will precipitate in the hills. Cloudy weather for Punjab, Haryana and Delhi next 2 days.
Mumbai "sobered" down on Wednesday, 23rd. We had expected some relief after Tuesday. S'Cruz was 34c and Colaba's high was 33c.
Tonite (Wednesday night) we may see S'Cruz dropping to 18c.
Pune too kept the schedule, and was better today at 29c as the high and 11c as the minimum.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Sunday, November 20, 2011
A Must Share with Vagaries Readers...Unusual and intriguing Cloud Formation viz. "Cloud Streets"…see Space News Page
Mumbai November Heat..see Mumbai Page
Publishing Next week's expected Developing situation and Weather forecast for the South. Its a 7 day estimate, and will be monitiored as it happens.
As mentioned yesterday, a UAC is likely to form off the South T.N. coast/Sri Lanka around Tuesday, 22nd November. This is likely to descend to form a sea level low in the same region within next 2 days, say around the 24th (Thursday). The said Low is expected to deepen (by then it would be numbered) and cross the Southern coast of T.N.
Squally NE winds are expected along the T.N. coast and Chennai from Thursday.
With the winds veering more to the East as expected on Sunday, Mumbai Colaba hit the predicted high of 36c, while S'Cruz was almost same at 35.8c.
Mumbai retains the 2nd place in Asia on Sunday, while Laem Chabang (
Expecting the trend continuing on Monday, with the high at 35/36c. Nights will get cooler from Monday/Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday minimum will be about 18/19c at S'Cruz and 22/23c at Colaba.
Cloudy conditions possibly returning on Friday (due to situation explained above).
Pune will be warm in the day on Monday and Tuesday. Day's high will be 31c and low a comfortable 10/11c. Cloudy weather and rise in night temperatures from Friday.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
See Inter-Active Page for pic of
Friday, November 18, 2011
Hottest in Asia On Friday, 18th: Makkah (Arabia), Nawabshah (
Mumbai comes a close 2nd at 35c. But not alone, a host of other cities in
And the Contrast…
UAF SMITH LAKE........................49 BELOW (UNOFFICIAL)
NORTH POLE KJNP.......................46 BELOW (NEW RECORD)
CHALKYITSIK RAWS......................47 BELOW (UNOFFICIAL)
BEAVER RAWS...........................46 BELOW (UNOFFICIAL)
TELIDA RAWS...........................45 BELOW (UNOFFICIAL)
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS....................44 BELOW
COLDFOOT..............................42 BELOW (UNOFFICIAL)
LIVENGOOD RAWS........................42 BELOW (UNOFFICIAL)
Taken from Mark’s Blog..more details there.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Mumbai, at it again, by sharing the first place on Thursday !
For Asia today, Thursday, 17th, Nawabshah (
Makkah (Arabia), Honavar and Ratnagiri (west coast,
From Mark’s Blog:
Spate of Tornadoes roar across Southern states, causes damage,
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
While Greeks shiver,
Monday, November 14, 2011
Dry winds from the E till the late afternoon, delayed the NW sea breeze from setting in early. This pattern is persisting since last 3 days.
Hence warm inland winds till 3 pm shot up the day temperature in Mumbai. Unusual winds blowing from land to sea all along the Northern region of the West coast/Konkan coast kept the humidity low, and the temperature high.
Resultantly, Mumbai S'Cruz at 36.3c, managed to become the hottest city in
Some clouding (alto cumulus/strato-cumulus) could be expected in Mumbai on Tuesday, as a result of the excessive above normal temperatures.Day will be at 34c, slightly lesser temperature, but a bit more humid.
BB-10 weakened a bit to 1010 mb with 15 knts wind. It has moved due west and has passed the
An effective W.D, N-3, is expected to reach
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Sunday Night Headlines:
-Mumbai S'Cruz very close 2nd at 36.4c.
-BB-10 at 1008mb moves N.
From Mark’s Blog:
2 feet of snow and 100 mph winds roar across
Underwater Volcanic Eruption off Canary Islands...Volcanic Eruption Could Give Birth to
Saturday, November 12, 2011
5. Mumbai position : Forecast v/s actual in bracket.
Saturday: 34c - 20c : (35-20)
Sunday: 32/33c - 19c N/W winds in the evening.
Monday: 32c - 19c.
6. Pune was at a low of 14c on Saturday (estimate 13c). Though the day was high at 33c, I expect another cool night and Sunday morning should see 12/13c.
Hottest in India on Saturday was
Friday, November 11, 2011
We had forecasted cooler nights for Pune from Friday (13c estimated on Monday, 7th Nov). and so be it ! Pune was 13.4c on Friday morning. Saturday and Sunday will see the day around 31c and a cooler night at 12/13c.
Mumbai, warmed up more than expected in the day these last few days. However, the minimum temperatures were almost along expected lines.
The forecast put up on Monday (7th) last, and the actual temperature in brackets shown here for performance study.
Mumbai S'Cruz Temperature Forecast v/s Actual:
Tuesday: 34 - 22 : (34-24)
Wednesday: 33 - 22 : (36-22)
Thursday: 33 - 21 : (37-21)
Friday/Saturday: 32 - 19/20 : (35-21) ( However, Colaba was 32c).
Forecast for this weekend for Mumbai
Saturday: 34c - 20c
Sunday: 32/33c - 19c N/W winds in the evening.
Monday: 32c - 19c.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Vagaries of The Weather © was started initially to share views and facts on the weather. It was created with passion and I was always keen to keep weather enthusiasts abreast with the latest, and share my experiences with them.
Used my limited knowledge by posting the latest on the SWM progress thru the "Monsoon Watch" series, and chased depressions and systems trying to figure out their erractic behaviour. Caught myself running up the wrong "track" at times.
By trying to place the jig-saw pieces in place, I try to work out the regional forecast..and many a times find myself sailing "upstream". As one ardent reader gave a comment sometime ago.."Rajesh, you are sticking your neck out again ".
Hope readers in the neighbouring countries enjoy this blog and find it useful, and send feedback and their views.
Vagaries has a numbering method for W.Ds and other systems from the seas.This has made blog reading much easier and less complicated when 2 or 3 systems appera simultaniously. W.D. numbering was started 2 seasons ago, and are named month wise, that N-2 for the second W.D. in November.
Vagaries commenced covering European and
With many regular readers of Vagaries interacting and with their inputs, our blog has become more responsive.
Ok, someone wants to remain anonymous, its their decision.
Its appreciated that by adding a little humour, readers do not want to demean the seriousness of Vagaries. I have maitained vagaries in all earnestness, and am thankful to have sincere readers who consider reading this blog as part of their daily routine.
An occasional bout of light reading and humour is always welcome. Laughter is the best medicine, as "you dont stop laughing because you grow old, you grow old because you stop laughing" !
Getting the blog more technical is not going to help many a reader. In fact, if one goes thru the previous comments, Vagaries had received requests to make it simpler to understand. As our regular reader Pavan says, readers come from a variety of fields, and want the blog simple and comprehensive.
Wednesday, November 09, 2011
It’s a record breaking weather event…for detailed report see Mark’s Blog.
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
AS-3 moves N/NW and positioned at 14.4N and 58.4E on Tuesday night. Note, it has now taken a more Northerly track (see Sat. Image above) as estimated by Vagaries. Core pressure at 996 mb is constant and winds at 30 knts. A slight curvature of cloud formation is now also seen in the South of the system.
Monday, November 07, 2011
Mumbai: Partly Cloudy/Hazy skies for Tuesday/Wednesday.
S'Cruz Temperature Forecast:
Tuesday: 34 - 22
Wednesday: 33 - 22
Thursday: 33 - 21
Friday/Saturday: 32 - 19/20.
Pune will be in the 31 - 16c range till Thursday. Friday I expect the nights to drop to 13c and Saturday to 12/13c.
Sunday, November 06, 2011
Bone-chilling cold brings harsh return of winter to European
Saturday, November 05, 2011
Friday, November 04, 2011
Next Generation Climate and Weather Satellite Launched on 28th October 2011…Weather enthusiasts, please see till the end…
25th Night Post Not predicted by any model, the defiant Cyclone "Gulab" has formed in the Bay. West ward movement of Gulab, and o...