Friday, May 31, 2024

RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD 1-3-2024 TO 31-5-2024


Number of Districts with above normal rainfall         :    332

Number of Districts with below normal rainfall         :    378

 District with highest above normal rainfall (1048%)  :  DANTEWADA - 134 mm                                                                                                                      (CHHATTISGARH)   



Monsoon update 30/5/24

As per Vagaries' analysis, SW Monsoon conditions are likely to establish over south Kerala by 3rd June. 

Below forecast indicates westerly winds (although weak) up to 600 hPa over south Kerala region by 3rd June - this will satisfy the wind criteria for Monsoon onset.

At present, there is an East-West shear zone at mid levels (700 hPa), and westerly winds remain south of Kerala. 👇

Parts of Kerala, south interior and coastal Karnataka and interior Tamil Nadu regions are likely to receive thunderstorms from today 31st May till Sunday 2nd June. 
Places like Bengaluru and Mysuru regions can receive good thundershowers.

Belgaum/Dharwad/Hubli regions can receive thundershowers from tomorrow 1st June onwards, could get some heavy rain from 2nd to 5th June.

Mumbai: Warm and very humid weather for this weekend, with nights being warm around 29-30C. Pre-monsoon rain/thundershowers are likely from 3rd June onwards in Mumbai region.  

Thane and Navi Mumbai regions will also get thunderstorms from 3rd to 5th June. 

Pune: Days getting a bit hotter and uncomfortable from the weekend. Chances of thundershowers from 3rd June onwards. Next week could see some good thundershowers (some heavy) for many parts of Pune district. 

Goa: Pre-monsoon thundershowers likely from 1st to 5th June, with heavy showers in some areas.

Many districts of Madhya Maharashtra (Solapur, Kolhaur, Satara, Sangli, Ahilyanagar, Nashik) and Marathwada (Ch. Sambhajinagar, Jalna, Beed, Dharashiv, Nanded) can get pre-monsoon thundershowers from 3rd June onwards. Some southern districts bordering Karnataka can get thundershowers from evening/night of 2nd June.

Wednesday, May 29, 2024


South West Monsoon advancing into Kerala by 2nd/3rd June ( as indicated) as mid level winds gain strength.

Meanwhile Coastal Kerala gets heavy pre monsoon rains.

Highest in India: Churu at 50.5c...Second Number in the World after Jacobabad (51.0c)

New Delhi S'Jung recorded 46.8c...Nearly touching the record highest for May of 47.2 in 1944.

Punjab, Haryana & New Delhi Max on 28th May 2024

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

28th May Post

India Today
Rainfall in Cherrapunji from Cyclone Remal..589 mms !
India Today 
Hottest in Maharashtra Today: Brahamapuri at 45.2
Coolest day : Mahabaleshwar at 26.8°

Mumbai Scruz 👇

Monsoon Watch...

Kerala seeing persistent rains. But South West winds are absent, and not seen at upper levels too.

Kerala rain pattern may become more convective in nature...with weak easterly steering for most parts over next 3 days.

Westerly flow sets in from the South and the shear zone starts moving North.

With other criteria for Monsoon ready,  maybe Monsoon in Kerala by 2nd June ?

South interior peninsula to see TS due to absence of strong westerlies in mid-levels

Mumbai will have another warm night, and sweaty conditions. Relief from 3rd June as pre monsoon rains expected. 

Pune: Days and nights around 36/37°.Pre monsoon thunder showers relief from 3rd June.

Interior Maharashtra and Konkan can get pre monsoon showers from 3rd June.

Monday, May 27, 2024

 27th Evening Post


Mumbai saw Continuous 10 days ( 18th  to 27th) of minimum temperatures of over 29°c.

( Except on 23rd, where it was just marginally just 0.1° below 29°c at 28.9°c).

As per Vagaries' data, this is a record for Mumbai for any month. 


With Cyclone Remal now having crossed into Bangladesh, and brought the Monsoon into the Bay, 

let's move over to the Arabian Sea:

Though the moisture has reduced in the Arabian Sea due to the cyclone, 

Southern Arabian Sea is largely busy with active large-scale organized convection.
Signs of Monsoon strengthening
Cross equatorial circulation intensifying in the backdrop of deepening
inter-hemispheric pressure gradient. 

South West Monsoon will gradually strengthen and can still be on Kerala between 31st and 2nd June.

Sunday, May 26, 2024

 26th May evening...7 pm IST

Crossing coast on 26th Night 

Remal severe cyclonic storm

Wind estimated at 110 -120 kmph

Pressure 981 mb

Saturday, May 25, 2024

 25th Night

25th May..Evening

Indian Summer at peak...Touches 50°c..first of the season 

However,  the Indian Subcontinent touched 50°c on 23rd when Jacodabad (Pakistan) saw 50°.

The World toppers today 


Monsoon covers Andamans...

Thai Department Circulates 👇

"The rather strong southwest monsoon prevailing over the upper Andaman Sea, the western North  and the Central with isolated heavy to very heavy rains."

BB 1 , A Deep Depression  moves North.

 Saturday Afternoon 


Friday, May 24, 2024

 23rd May

Twin LPAs present since morning, AS-1 and BB-1

AS-1 seems to be weakened.

BB-1 is well-marked and will intensify. More details on Bengal Coast cyclone chances soon. 

On forming, this will be the first cyclone of the year for entire northern hemisphere (Atlanic, WNP, EP, NIO)

Thursday, May 23, 2024

23rd Posting:

Rainfall in Kerala  from UAC ...Creating only " Pseudo Monsoon Effect"

Last 24 hrs:

Kozhikode AP 193mm

Kochi 137mm

Kochi AP 101mm

Alappuzha 122mm

Kozhikode 83mm

Thrissur 71mm

Kerala seeing heavy rains due to the UAC over south peninsula and Tamil Nadu region and wind convergence along the coast. 

Vagaries had mentioned this in our earlier forecast. 

While south tip of Kerala is seeing rain bands from West/Southwest, Central and North Kerala seeing thunderstorm-type rains with steering winds from the east.

Vagaries' thoughts regarding the present weather dynamics:

  • Although probably the IMD parameters for SWM onset may have been satisfied objectively (for Thiruvananthapuram region)...this westerly surge for south tip Kerala feels more like a pseudo onset type ...flared up due to the UAC.

  • Monsoon Vortex also absent, as Vortex should have "Depression" type wind isobars and Depth.

  • Note: The onset criteria do not consider this pull effect westerly surge...this is where the human element for analysis and large scale weather dynamics interpretation comes into picture
  • Winds at mid levels (600-700 hPa) are forecasted to reverse to North/Northeasterly for entire Kerala from tomorrow night. 
  • Usually after SWM onset, westerlies extend till a depth of 600 hPa and do not reverse in direction within 48 hours (mid-level winds can change in break phase, but not just after onset). 

  • So a more subjective analysis suggests the SW Monsoon to be at the doorstep of Indian mainland, having advanced to Maldives and most of Sri Lanka. 

.Kerala onset could happen around 29th May to 1st June time frame - may not be accompanied by heavy rains like what is observed now.

. Monsoon established over Sri Lanka.

Weekend Outlook 24th-27th:

Mumbai will see partly cloudy, muggy weather with humid days at 35c and warm stuffy nights at 28c. Few localized passing showers possible in MMR region and near Ghats due to strengthening westerly winds and increased clouding in evening/early morning hours.

Heavier Pre monsoon showers (which may add to the humidity) can start from early June. Proper Monsoon onset around 10th June.

Pune: Hot days at 38/39c, with cloudiness increasing by afternoon. Pre Monsoon showers in 1st week of June.

Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Wednesday 6.30 pm IST

22nd May..

Mumbai sees 29.6c minimum. Same as on 25-5-2015....not a record Mumbai record highest minimum is 30.2c in 31-5-2015

On 18th/19th/20th/21st/22nd, Mumbai Santacruz saw 5 continuous minimum temperatures, (or nights), of 29°c. and 29.6c on 22nd....Which This, according to Vagaries' archives, would be a record. 

29.6c Minimum was also seen in 25-5-2015... Incidentally it s not the record but the 7th Highest minimum as per records. 

Pune saw a minimum of 27.3c...Highest after 1985....Pune Record minimum is 29.4c in 1979.


South West Monsoon 2024:

Sri Lanka Meteorological  Dept. Report 👇


Issued at 12.00 noon on 22 May 2024

The Southwest monsoon conditions are gradually establishing over the island; hence, the prevailing showery and windy conditions will continue further.

Showers or thundershowers will occur at times in Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, North-western, Southern and Northern provinces.

Very heavy showers about 150 mm are likely at some places in Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and in Kandy and Nuwara-Eliya districts. Heavy showers above 100 mm are likely at some places in North-western province and in Mannar, Galle and Matara districts.

Showers or thundershowers will occur at several places elsewhere of the island.

Strong winds of about (50-60) kmph can be expected at times over Western slopes of the central hills and in Northern, North-central, Western, Southern and North western provinces. Fairly strong winds about (30-40) kmph can be expected at times elsewhere of the island."

2. South West Monsoon set to advance further into Andamans.

3. Kerala Monsoon expected by 31st May.

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

21st May 

*Seasonal Low Pressure forming in South Bay of Bengal on 22nd.

*Will pull up the South West Monsoon into the Andamans. 

*System will strengthen into a depression. 

*Will track towards Bangladesh.

*No Cyclone formation expected.

*No Alert on Indian Coasts.


Rains in Kerala right now are not associated with monsoon onset. The low pressure circ. that is hovering around the south west bay is having its influence over southern peninsular India including Kerala and adjoining Arabian sea. Kerala monsoon onset is more than a week away.
From Vagarian Gokul

Monday, May 20, 2024

Post 20th May...Pune

Pashan, Pune ..20th May

Picture courtesy Prof.R.Kelkar ( Retd DGM ,IMD).

Since 10th of May, everyday, Pune has been experiencing pre-monsoon thunder showers. Providing much-needed relief from the scorching summer heat. Seeing a prolonged continuity of a weather pattern. 

Seasonal total rain in Pune till 20th is 107 mms ( normal 38 mms).

Pune 24 Hrs Rainfall in mm, Dt. 20.05.2024                                                                                       






DAUND 10.5


NDA 9.0





Sunday, May 19, 2024

19th May ..

South West Monsoon season has commenced for India..👇

Monsoon moves into South Andaman Islands...

Kerala Expected to get heavy Pre Monsoon rains in the coming week..20th onwards.

On 19th May:

Hottest in Maharashtra was Jalgaon at 44.2c.

Hottest 10 in India 

Hottest In Pakistan was Jacobabad at 47.0c

Next few days  will be partly cloudy, hot and sultry at 35/36c with very warm nights at 27/28c.
Pre monsoon thundershowers in first week of June.

Pune: Next few days ..Hot, with the local thundershower in the afternoon bringing relief from the days high of 38/39c.

Marathwada:Sambhajingar (Aurangabad): Hot with temperatures at 41/42c. Dry. Pre Monsoon showers in 1st week of June

मराठवाडा: संभाजिंगर (औरंगाबाद):
४१/४२ अंश तापमानासह उष्ण. कोरडे. जूनच्या पहिल्या आठवड्यात मान्सूनपूर्व पाऊस.

Gujarat: Hot and dry, with days in te 42/44c range..
May Minimum analysis for Mumbai:
Mumbai Santa Cruz:

May...Avg Normal ➡26.3 °C...Highest Normal 28.9c in 2002

Lowest Minimum  20.2°C ..12-5-1985

Highest Minimum 30.2 °C... 31-5-2015

Mumbai Colaba:
May Avg Normal 26.7c......Highest Normal was 28.5c in 2002

On 18th and 19th May 2024, SantanCruz recorded a minimum of 29.0c.

Lowest Minimum  ➡ 22.8c...25-5-1951

Highest Minimum  ➡ 30.0c..31-5-2017

Saturday, May 18, 2024

Weather outlook from Saturday 18th to Wednesday 22nd May - *Heatwave for north, *rains for south, *monsoon over the Indian waters!

As mentioned in MW-4 and earlier posts, SW Monsoon is expected to advance over the Andaman-Nicobar region around 20th May. 

At present, an upper-air cyclonic circulation (UAC) is present over the southern peninsula which is likely to bring heavy rains and thundershowers to southern Karnataka (Bengaluru, Mysuru, Coorg/Kodagu, Mangaluru), Kerala and interior Tamil Nadu.

Along with this UAC, Kerala region can see some wind convergence near the coast which can give some heavy to very heavy rains. 

This UAC will likely move east and deepen across the atmospheric column, possibly descending to the surface over the Bay of Bengal. It may intensify into a depression/cyclone - needs to be monitored.

HEAT ALERT for northern plains🔥

Meanwhile, the northern plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi NCR, Uttar Pradesh and north Madhya Pradesh will see daytime temperatures rising to mid 40s (42C-46C). 
"Loo" like conditions also possible in some areas due to very hot and dry breeze.

Nights can also remain hot and dry with minimum temperatures around 27C-31C. 

Parts of Thar desert will see max temperatures peaking around 46C-49C and min around 30C-32C.  

Friday, May 17, 2024

Monsoon Watch  4...17th May 2024

Monsoon2024 onset conditions for Andaman and Sri Lanka are seen in the vicinity over the next  4 days...21st May.

Mascarene High and cross equatorial flows in the Arabian Sea branch are disrupted by the Cyclone ( Ialy) off East Africa. 

But the Bay branch will pick up by 21st. and Bay onset vortex along the surge expected.

The Arabian Sea branch South West wind flow will stabilise rapidly after the Cyclone Ialy  fizzles out.

Still the core Seasonal Low is not ready due to " Weak heat " situation in Central


The Jet streams are turning Favorably Easterlies around 10N, with tendency to become Easterlies upto 15N.

South West Monsoon expected in Kerala by 31st May/1st/2nd June.

South Maharashtra/Goa will see entry of SWM around 8th June.

Mumbai will enter Pre-monsoon showers phase by 1st week of June.

Proper Monsoon can enter Mumbai around 10th/12th June. 

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

 Posted 15th May...

The "Climate Change" Theory...As Prophesized..👇

Actual happening..👇

Seen Below, the temperature anomaly for the whole Month of April 2024  (In India) was in the " Green/Light Green/White Shade. That is upto 2c below Normal. The SE Coast is " Yellow" , around 2c above normal...NO Heat wave  !

The Overall 2024 till 15th May is shown below...Similar Shade applies to this Image below..👇

Was it really the worst Heat in April/May 2024 ? 2022 was Hotter !

Lets compare with last few Aprils: 2023


Mumbai grumbles as seeing the "Hottest April" in 2024...Really ?👇See the "Average Red Line "

Mumbai has witnessed Dusty winds and "Downdrafts" from towering Thunder Heads in the past also...Lets not put too many " Unusual" theories on this ..



Monday, May 13, 2024

 Posted 13th Evening....:

Thunder clouds developed and formed in the Eastern townships like Kalyan, Badlapur and Navi Mumbai on Monday afternoon.

In a sudden development, the thundery clouds drifted towards Mumbai, and due to the fierce intensity of the cloud, a strong "downdraft" roared downwards into the city and suburbs. The winds in gusts touched 60-70 kmph, like cyclonic winds.

Mumbai MMR Rainfall from Thunderstorm on 13-5-24

Vikhroli 60 mm
Kalwa 51
Powai 48
Aarey 45
Mulund 44
Badlapur 40
Mumbra 38
Andheri & Ghatkopar 36
Airoli 33
Karjat & Palava 32
Juhu & Diva 31
SCZ IMD & RamMandir 21
Kharghar 20
Thane 19
Shiv 15, Dombivli 12
Rainfall Compiled by Vag. Abhijit

Many parts of city were covered with dust due to the gales.

Few places in North, Eastern and Central Mumbai  got the pre monsoon showers as expected.

Prominent rains till 5 pm : Badlapur 40 mms, Airoli 30 mms, Kopri IITM 28 mms, Marol 11 mms, Virle Parle 7 mms, Vagaries club 6 mms

Badlapur witnessed cyclonic winds at 106 kmph due thundery clouds at a height of 18kms..( 55000 feet)!

Mumbai rains in colour code as on 8.30 pm

 19th Night Hottest Weather in North India Persisting relentlessly.... New Delhi witnessed on 19th morning, the worst Night temperature ( mi...