Picture courtesy Prof.R.Kelkar ( Retd DGM ,IMD).
Since 10th of May, everyday, Pune has been experiencing pre-monsoon thunder showers. Providing much-needed relief from the scorching summer heat. Seeing a prolonged continuity of a weather pattern.
Seasonal total rain in Pune till 20th is 107 mms ( normal 38 mms).
Pune 24 Hrs Rainfall in mm, Dt. 20.05.2024
HAVELI 16.5
WADGAONSHERI 16.0
HADAPSAR 15.0
MAGARAPATTA 14.0
CHINCHWAD 11.5
DAUND 10.5
BARAMATI 9.4
NDA 9.0
SHIVAJINAGAR 6.4
DHAMDHERE 4.0
RAJGURUNAGAR 2.5
KOREGAON PARK 1.0
19th May ..
South West Monsoon season has commenced for India..👇
Monsoon moves into South Andaman Islands...
Kerala Expected to get heavy Pre Monsoon rains in the coming week..20th onwards.
On 19th May:
Hottest in Maharashtra was Jalgaon at 44.2c.
Hottest 10 in India
| May Minimum analysis for Mumbai: Mumbai Santa Cruz: May...Avg Normal ➡26.3 °C...Highest Normal 28.9c in 2002 |
Lowest Minimum ➡ 20.2°C ..12-5-1985
Highest Minimum ➡30.2 °C... 31-5-2015
Monsoon Watch 4...17th May 2024
Monsoon2024 onset conditions for Andaman and Sri Lanka are seen in the vicinity over the next 4 days...21st May.
Mascarene High and cross equatorial flows in the Arabian Sea branch are disrupted by the Cyclone ( Ialy) off East Africa.
The Arabian Sea branch South West wind flow will stabilise rapidly after the Cyclone Ialy fizzles out.
Still the core Seasonal Low is not ready due to " Weak heat " situation in Central
South West Monsoon expected in Kerala by 31st May/1st/2nd June.
South Maharashtra/Goa will see entry of SWM around 8th June.
Mumbai will enter Pre-monsoon showers phase by 1st week of June.
Proper Monsoon can enter Mumbai around 10th/12th June.
Posted 15th May...
The "Climate Change" Theory...As Prophesized..👇
Seen Below, the temperature anomaly for the whole Month of April 2024 (In India) was in the " Green/Light Green/White Shade. That is upto 2c below Normal. The SE Coast is " Yellow" , around 2c above normal...NO Heat wave !
Was it really the worst Heat in April/May 2024 ? 2022 was Hotter !
Lets compare with last few Aprils: 2023
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Mumbai grumbles as seeing the "Hottest April" in 2024...Really ?👇See the "Average Red Line "
Posted 13th Evening....:
Thunder clouds developed and formed in the Eastern townships like Kalyan, Badlapur and Navi Mumbai on Monday afternoon.
In a sudden development, the thundery clouds drifted towards Mumbai, and due to the fierce intensity of the cloud, a strong "downdraft" roared downwards into the city and suburbs. The winds in gusts touched 60-70 kmph, like cyclonic winds.
Many parts of city were covered with dust due to the gales.
Few places in North, Eastern and Central Mumbai got the pre monsoon showers as expected.
Prominent rains till 5 pm : Badlapur 40 mms, Airoli 30 mms, Kopri IITM 28 mms, Marol 11 mms, Virle Parle 7 mms, Vagaries club 6 mms
Badlapur witnessed cyclonic winds at 106 kmph due thundery clouds at a height of 18kms..( 55000 feet)!
Mumbai rains in colour code as on 8.30 pm
Posted 12th Night;
Maharashtra:
On 11th & 12th May, Pre Monsoon Thundershowers in the State keep the Day & Night temperatures in the "Normal" levels.. Preventing any "Heat Wave" conditions👇
Sprcial IMD Bulletin 👇
Monsoon Watch - 3...10th May 2024...Arrival Date & Quantum Estimate
This year, I have observed a varying and fluctuating mode in the basic parameters. A little unusual (from my last 56 years of basic Monsoon development studies).
1. The Seasonal low is still steady at 1002/1004 hpa at the core. Should be getting lower gradually, but variations and cooler (than normal) climes in North and NW India in April/First half of May and persisting WDs (with snow in Kashmir) kept this from occurring.
Showing the fluctuating trends, Will suddenly drop to 998 hpa around 23rd/24th May.
2. Heat wave...Except in the Southern Regions, no real effect of Heat Wave in North and North West.
3. Equatorial Cross Winds...Bay region & Arabian Sea
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6.ONI:
The most recent ONI value (February – April 2024) is 1.1ºC.
{El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months}
Understanding the the above criteria, we estimate:
Note:
Arrival Date*:
With a moderate summer (initially) in heartland India due to a series of WDs also preventing the "uppermost winds" from seasonal setting, no Low Pressure formations in Bay,( for the Bay branch) and a late season fading El Nino, we estimate
The arrival Date of the Indian South West Monsoon over the Bay Islands will be delayed by a few days to 18th/20th May ( normal date 15th May).
However, the West Coast Branch of the Monsoon, could be arriving at Kerala around normal date of 1st June.
Quantum*:
India being a big Country, the Spatial distribution of the rains will be varying a lot.
Southern Peninsula & West Coast may be Normal,
Gujarat & Central India slightly above Normal,
NW India and North normal.
Slightly below Normal in the East.
The much talked about La Nina factor is expected, but only in the later stages of the Monsoon, approximately in August/September. Hence, what we may see is initially normal or slightly lagging rains, but better precipitation in the second half of the season.
Data from 1951 to 2023 shows India experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall on 9 occasions when La Nina followed El Nino event
IMD has estimated this years Monsoon quantum at around +106%+- 5% of the normal.
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Posted 8th Night
Special outlook for Mumbai and Western Maharashtra..
Outlook for 9th - 12th
Mumbai, with westerly winds, is likely to see
*Temperatures in the range of 33-35°C.
* Expect partly cloudy skies in the evenings and mornings. There's a possibility of cumulonimbus cloud development in the eastern sky over the weekend ( 11th/12th).
*Isolated thunderstorms from the ghats may drift into the eastern parts of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), including Karjat, Panvel, and Badlapur.
Outlook for 9th - 12th
Temperatures in Pune may remain between 37-39°C. However, depending on the expected thunderstorms by Saturday & Sunday, there might be a slight drop.
Cooler nights around 19°C on 11th & 12th.
Due to the formation of a LWD on lower levels and aided by easterly moisture support in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, thunderstorms are expected to develop over the interior of Maharashtra, including the ghat sections, between May 9th and 12th.
The activity is expected to be more widespread over the weekend,on 11th/12th.
Areas like Igatpuri, Lonavala, and Mahabaleshwar in the ghats can also expect thunderstorms towards the weekend, with an isolated possibility of hail.
Nashik, Pune, Satara, Kolhapur, and Sangli are also well-positioned for scattered thunderstorm activity.
Outlook compiled by Vagarian Abhijit.
More later for 13th onwards...
Posted 5th Evening
7th-9th May forecasted scenario
Large parts of Eastern India to get pre-monsoon thunderstorms for the next one week. Large scale synoptic scale features to bring in rainfall along most of east coast from West Bengal to Kerala/ Karnataka. Bengal and Odisha should see a huge relief from the recent heat wave.
Regions that will receive these thunderstorms include parts of West Bengal, Odisha, Chattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, south Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala
Compiled by Vagarian Gokul
Weekend weather forecast from Friday 3rd to Monday 6th May:
Mumbai: "Normal" humid May summer returns to Mumbai region. Friday 3rd May will see max temperature of 33-34C. Nights will be around 24-25C. Slight temperature rise is expected over the weekend, with a max around 34-36C. Nights can warm up to 26C.
Thane district interiors could see 36-38C max on Friday 3rd May and 38-41C max over the weekend.
Pune: Friday will see a max around 38C, but rising upto 39-40C over the weekend and into Monday. Nights/early mornings will be pleasant till Saturday with min around 21C, but rising to around 22-23C on Sunday 5th and Monday 6th.
Gujarat: Normal summer weather expected across the state. Days will be hot and dry with max temperature around 41C for most of Saurashtra, Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar, Vadodara, Bharuch areas. Parts of Saurashtra and Kutch may see some clouding on Friday/Saturday due to approaching Western Disturbance.
Coastal regions will see lower max around 34-36C due to sea breeze, but more humidity. Surat region will see max around 36C.
Bangalore region, south interior Karnataka and interior Tamil Nadu will get thunderstorms during next 3-4 days.
Heatwave conditions to persist in Kolkata and Gangetic West Bengal till Saturday, but chances of thunderstorms is increasing. So relief from the heat is likely.
Himalayas to get rain/thunderstorms and snow (in high elevations) due to approaching Western Disturbance (WD).
