SWM Update and Vagaries' Estimate:
1. The off shore trough off the west coast of India now runs from Konkan to Kerala.
2. The low, AS-1, , off the Goa coast, which was noticed yesterday, is now embedded in the trough, off the S.Konkan/Goa coast,as an UAC.
3.. By Sunday, AS-1, can descend to MSLP, and as a low detach itself to move West.The in built strength of the off shore trough is diminished.In such a scenario, AS-1 could move west and dissipitate in the Arabian Sea.
4. OLR maps show favourable improvements since yesterday off the Goa coast, and 200 jet streams are in perfect Easterly position up to 17N.
5. Goa was partly sunny, and devoid of rains till Friday evening, Showing favourable parameters today, with the off shore trough strengthening, Vagaries today advances the SWM into Goa, and Karnataka. Goa region can expect heavy thundershowers and increasing rains on Sunday.The off shore trough will strengthen on the weekend with greater cloud inflow from strong Westerlies.
6. Mumbai: If, the scenario permits, Mumbai could well have the SWM thrust on it by Tuesday, 7th June. On AS-1 escaping, the off shore trough may not hold on for long..but can sustain as a seasonal trough for a week.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with thundershower by evening. Rain amounts expected around 20 mms.
Sunday/Monday: SW winds increasing, and frequency of rains also increasing, with gusty winds. Seas will be choppy, and "Precautionary Signal No.3*"could well be put up on Monday. Rain amounts expected around 30 mms.
*Its a warning signal to fishermen. Its generally put up at Chowpatty and at Colaba. Grade is 1-10, with danger ascending.