Sunday, September 30, 2012




Short Narration:
Monday 1st/Tuesday 2nd: The heaviest rains are in Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, North Interior Karnataka and North AP. 
South Konkan/Goa and coastal Karnataka gets moderate rains as shown.
Pune is expected to get heavy thunderstorms in the evenings. Hyderabad may get the thundershower too.

Wednesday: SWM withdraws from North Maharashtra, North Chattisgarh and Nepal. 
Good rainfall in south Maharashtra, South Konkan/Goa, and adjoining AP.

Mumbai City:
Monday/Tuesday: Partly cloudy in the day. Thundery conditions in the evening, with thunderclouds drifting in from the East. possible heavy spell in some areas.

Outer towns inland can also expect thundershowers in the afternoon/evening. Heavy spells in some regions. 

Wednesday: Clear day with thundery developments in the evening. Thunderheads over the Eastern inland towns  regions, where some thundershowers possible.

SWM withdraw from Mumbai and Pune, rest of Maharashtra and North Karnataka on Friday 5th October.


x--------------------------------x-------------------------------x--------------------------x----------x-x


89 comments:

Abhijit Modak said...

@ GSB.Very strong on statistics.. Very awesome work.. And thank you very much for presenting SWM behavior in easy understandable manner.

Abhijit Modak said...

I measured 2909mm Rain for Badlapur from 1st June 2012 till 30 September 2012 for this Monsoon 2012 season.

Anonymous said...

@GSB: What a superb presentation. Makes it all so easy now.
Hope you continue with such presentations on vagaries...all the best. Chetan

Anonymous said...

oh yeah.

Pavan said...

good job! hope the vagaries continues

GSB said...

Thanks everybody , but the real credit goes to Rajesh sir of course . I had promised the report by 7 pm and managed to beat it by just 3 minutes !!!!

Thanks also to the good people at IMD who do a wonderful job everyday updating data diligently online ...one of the better met departments in the world....

Anonymous said...

How much matheran got for the year

Anonymous said...

grt work GSB , also i would like to highlight on this weeks thunderstorm activity,considering all the points what Rajesh sir has already explained in his unique way .such as the humidity levels that have gone up, and also the movement of UAC likely to track upwards along the konkan coast closer to mumbai because of change in wind direction SSW and movement of bb7 inland ,definitely the situation in mumbai is going to change for these 5 days , & for all of us, who have been waiting to experience , these farewell thunderstorms from 1st oct to 5th oct. the wait is over, but even after the monsoon is withdrawn there might be an odd shower in mumbai on 6th october.well that is nothing unusual to happen for this time of the year.i myself i m travelling to lonavala with my friends, on thursday to enjoy the weather out there.


thanks preeti sawant

Neeraj said...

Nepal: Monsoon all but withdrawn, but still active in the extreme east of the country (in areas adjoining Sikkim- India). There has been a landslide there in the past 24 hrs, and the Eastern town of Taplezong recorded 45 mms of rain.
Having said that, the temperature here at Kathmandu is still very hot. its in 18.5~19 C to 30~31 C range.Which, by Kathmandu standard, is quite hot. What does the next few days hold ? any rain possible? and any drop in temperature??

Anonymous said...

grt work GSB , also i would like to highlight on this weeks thunderstorm activity,considering all the points what Rajesh sir has already explained in his unique way .looking at the humidity levels that have gone up, and also the movement of UAC likely to track upwards along the konkan coast closer to mumbai because of change in wind direction SSW and movement of bb7 inland ,definitely the situation in mumbai is going to change for these 5 days , & for all of us, who have been waiting to experience , these farewell thunderstorms from 1st oct to 5th oct. the wait is over, but even after the monsoon is withdrawn there might be an odd shower in mumbai on 6th october.well that is nothing unusual to happen for this time of the year.i myself i m travelling to lonavala with my friends, on thursday to enjoy the weather out there. and i also believe Rajesh sir and all those who have been waiting for these storms will enjoy a grt farewell in mumbai too.


thanks preeti sawant

Anonymous said...

will there be any rains in delhi , again this week, we are waiting for rains here , its getting hot here.


Akash sharma

Anonymous said...

Mumbai will experience heavy thunderstorms from today onwards, for 5 to 6 days.conditions are favourable for these storms in mumbai at the moment.


thanks bipin

Abhijit Modak said...

@ preeti sawant. Yes. very correctly said totally agree with you.
I was also going to comment same what you have mentioned !! Current whole week (1st to 5/6th Oct)would be of activity !!

@ Rajesh Sir. We had discussed 3days back only that I doubt that UAC may move North towards Konkan is more instead of Entering Interior Karnataka!!

Anonymous said...

@ anonymous ,Sorry to say there will be no rains in delhi as the monsoon has withdrawn long time back. need to bear with october heat till winter sets in.and by the way u r the first person asking for rains in october, that too in a monsoon withdrawal period.

Anonymous said...

@ Abhijit all thanks to the UAC travelling a litte closer to mumbai , and bb7 travelling inland, all this prove beneficial for the storms to take place in mumbai. and one more thing is the humidity level is going to help these storms to pop up in the evenings.


preeti sawant

Pradeep said...

AWESOME WORK GSB


Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur measured 693mm for September month..

Abhijit Modak said...

After getting calm after 1am. Thick drops drizzles noted around 2am in Badlapur. So 0.7mm recorded here ending 8.30am today. Due to blanket of clouds min temp was raised
.so 27 C min temp was noted here. Now sky is totally clear with bit foggy around. Its very sweaty & muggy here.

rajesh said...

preeti:yes, if the Arabian Sea UAC gets stronger, your estimate will be abs in line...

Abhijit Modak said...

Shivaji Nagar, Pune IMD observatory records 27.4mm rain for last night Thunderstorm. Now waiting for Pune AP(Lohagaon) & Pashan suburb rain data..

Anonymous said...

@ Rajesh sir & Abhijit, MY POINT IS THAT UAC WILL MOVE NORTHWARDS INSTEAD OF MOVING INLAND IS BECAUSE THE WINDS NEAR RATNAGIRI ARE GOING TO CHANGE THE DIRECTION, SE TO SSW, AND THIS WILL PUSH THE UAC NORTHWARDS,bringing the moisture bearing winds from the Arabian SEA CAUSING HEAVY RAINS IN MUMBAI, IN THESE 5 DAYS.ALONG WITH THUNDER ACTIVITY.


PREETI SAWANT

Anonymous said...

SO LETS KEEP FINGERS CROSSED FOR THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM IN AND AROUND MADHYA MAHARASHTRA AND ENTIRE
KONKAN BELT (MUMBAI ) INCLUDING GOA.



PREETI SAWANT

Anonymous said...

RAJESH SIR, ARE THESE THUNDERSTORMS GOJNG TO OCCUR IN SURAT ALSO, OR ONLY IN MUMBAI.

Anonymous said...

Rajesh sirji, slightly confused on reading the current blog and comments. You have suggested that Mumbai will recieve around 10mms of rains today and tomorrow and then dry on 3rd Oct, however some readers are suggesting the UAC moving upwards towards Mumbai and resultant heavy storms. You too have suggested in reply to a reader that if the UAC strengthens off the West Coast than Mumbai will recieve heavy showers. So what is your view on the situation? Is the UAC going to move towards Mumbai? Or your forecast mentions what you believe?

Anonymous said...

@ ANONYMOUS,
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SURAT WILL RECEIVE ANY THUNDERSTORM , AS THE MONSOON HAS WITHDRAWN FROM THERE BUT THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ODD THUNDER ACTIVITY TOMMOROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN MAHARASHTRA AND MUMBAI BECAUSE OF THE UAC.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Anonymous. At moment for Surat no chances ! Even Dahanu is doubtful ! Hoping till Palghar only.. But again weather is very unpredictable so if any rapid changes and UAC behaviour & track route will decide..

Anonymous said...

@ ANONYMOUS THERE IS NO NEED TO GET CONFUSED AS RAJESH SIR HAS MADE IT ALREADY CLEAR HIS VIEW THAT IF THE UAC STRENGTHS IN THE ARABIAN SEA , AND AS I SAID THE WINDS NEAR KONKAN COAST WILL CHANGE IT DIRECTION SSW THEN THINGS WILL CHANGE IN MUMBAI, AS IF NOW WE NEED TO WAIT AND SEE BY EVENING WHAT WILL BE THE SITUATION IN MUMBAI AND KONKAN AREA.

THANKS PREETI SAWANT

NT said...

Hey GSB, fantastic analysis. Appreciate your effort for the benefit of all Vagaries readers.

Have been a Vagaries reader since the last many years, the comments now are becoming more and more interesting, one major change is the multiple forecasts in the comments section. Well, as they say more the merrier as long as it does not 'confuse' the readers :-)

emkay said...

Agree with GSB. specifically on the confusion created by diametrically opposite predictions being made in comments which run counter to the main blog. Wish Rajeshbhai gives specific replies to "predictions" made in comments.

Anonymous said...

CURRENT TEMPERATURE IN MUMBAI IS 30 DEGREE BUT THE REAL FEEL IS ABOUT 38 DEGREE ALSO HUMIDITY IS 79% at the moment ,


preeti

Anonymous said...

rajesh sir has already given clear predictions, u need to understand it, if its ur capacity to understand

rajesh said...

Vagaries is open to everybody's views.Be it in line with vagaries, or diametrically opposite, it does not matter.The opinions and suggestions of all are welcome, as all vagaries readers, are considered as one "family". the vagaries family.
This is what keeps vagaries healthy and alive...and after all, the weather keeps all guessing.

Clarification for certain readers:
Vagaries feels the UAC in the Arabian Sea will move inland and fade away. Mumbai forecast is as put up...but these differ slightly with certain readers, who feel the UAC will move North...that's ok..things can happen either way...international models change every 4 hrs..sometimes diametrically opposite in consecutive forecasts, at least we dont waiver so much -:)

Anonymous said...

THATS RIGHT RAJESH SIR A VERY SIMPLE AND CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE ANSWER.TO ALL THOSE WHO OPPOSE OTHERS OPINIONS.WE AS A FAMILY NEED TO CONTTRIBUTE TO THIS BLOG AND NOT TO BE CRITICS OF EACH OTHER. EVERYONE IS FREE TO HIGHLIGHT HIS VIEWS , BECAUSE EVERYTIME THERE IS SOMETHING NEW TO LEARN.


THANKS PREETI SAWANT

emkay said...

Thanks Rajesh for the clarification, one suggestion, can we shift heavily graphics intensive reports (wonderful job by GSB) to an Analysis section. It hurts on mobile data plans when home page is this intensive...emkay

Anonymous said...

some dummmm need to be explained several times then they understand.

GSB said...

Thanks Pradeep,NT,Emkay and Preeti. Again I think this is all possible due to the support and initial encouragement of Rajesh sir.

Pradeep, your work on the rainfall toppers all India is much harder to collate and present in the final form. I have a long way to go and learn..

Emkay: I agree that graphic heavy reports can have a seperate section. That is for Rajesh sir to decide.. maybe he can have a new "Statistics/Reports" section...but I think anyway by today evening when everyone has seen and read the report he can move it to one of the other sections to lighten the load on the home page...

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Thanks for the clarifications. If Global Forecasting Models views can differ then we readers views can also differ.. And as everybody knows Weather is very unpredicatable as nobody can control it. So angles of predications can change !

emkay said...

@GSB - Humility of few like yourself, Pradeep while preparing such extensive reports is what which adds glory to the blog

Anonymous said...

absolutely right abhijit , only we need to know that weather keeps changing every hour, specially when we have two systems on either side of the peninsula, this can bring grt change every hour , specially when thunderstorms are concerned they can differ from place to place as far as its intensity is concerned.sometimes the weather is very challenging, it goes right opposite of the weather predictors.


thanks preeti sawant

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Preeti. Totally agreed on all your points mentioned.. Here now in Badlapur-Karjat belt sky becoming cloudy from East same like yesterday. Only differnce is yesterday turned overcast after 3pm & today turning cloudy from 12.30pm onwards First it was alto clouds now stable whitish- black layer.

Anonymous said...

@ rajesh sir and abhijit looks like things gettting favourable for an evening thunderstorm. clouds are popping up from the east.



preeti sawant


Abhijit Modak said...

@ preeti. Still fingers are crossed !! As no thunder heads seen yet ! Present clouding can just produce an drizzles here ! Strictly valid for nxt few hrs only ! As some sudden formation may change evening clouding !

Anonymous said...

rajesh sir..your prediction on rainfall for coastal and interior karnataka has gone all wrong..

Anonymous said...

@ ANONYMOUS JUST WAIT DONT JUMP TO CONCLUSIONS, Rajesh sir has done predictions as per his knowledge which has been most of the time accurate.some changes here and there is always possible.weather is never on anybodys side,it can change any moment.

thanks preeti sawant

Anonymous said...

blanket of white cloud is spreading from the east , at the moment no signs of thundery development

Anonymous said...

Whoa!! looks like my comment on being confused raised a storm in Vagaries. I did not intend to say anything to other weather forcasters in any way, all I was pointing to is that Rajesh sir's blog gave the view for the next few days and his comment to a particular reader appeared to be in the other direction. Was merely pointing to that. I personally (just my peronsal view) don't care about who is making what forecast, I come to this blog to read what Rajesh sir has to say. So wannabe forecasters take a chill pill and continue with your forecasts.

Arpit Sharma said...

@anonymous
Chances of rain are NIL in delhi,though dehradun is getting light rain,yesterday again 1.3mm of rain recorded there.

emkay said...

Seems COLA sites are down today, both wxmaps.org and monsoondata.org

Anonymous said...

preeti you are not a weather expert rajesh sir has a years experience so plz dnt try to put your head every where.seen your many comments contradicting to sir's comment.are u a big weather expert no na than dnt try to compare yourself with sir by giveing some diffrent predictions of yours own better do your own work n let sir only guide us .dnt cut sir's every words.you are miss guideing othrs

emkay said...

Thanks for endorsing my stand Anonymous @ 2.55 PM !!

Pradeep said...

anonymous(Vagaries' Karnataka Predictions): The rainfall was widespread. These are the rainfall figures for Karnataka for 30th sept (upto 40 mms only):
Koratagere 86.1
Thumbadi 85.1
Dabbaedka 72.1
Bandal 67.4
Madhugiri 59
Birur 57.2
Holavanahallli 55.2
Urdigere 53.6
Bukkapatna 52.3
Irksandra 52
Sugur 51.1
Kalasa 49.8
Ramgiri 47
Gajarahal 46.4
Hallibailu 45.8
Nelahal 45.3
Chandrabanda 45
Thayalur 43.6
Hethur 43.6
Maranahalli 42.8
Bidrahalli 42.4
Ravihal 42.2
Thambrhalli 40.9
Sakaleshpur 40.8
Somwarpet 40.6
Ajekar 40.4
and 1st October:
Duddamagge 104
Almel 97.8
Yagati 96.6
Ramanahalli 86.4
Kannur 79
Yelandur 76.6
Devar Hipparagi 74
Balale 73.3
Karkala 72.2
Managuli 72
Byadgi 69.4
Bhutnal 68.2
Andola 66.8
Ijari 66
Kaladagi 65
Yergatti 65
Afzalpur 64.7
Gogi 64.6
Ayanur 62.4
Nad 62.2
Rampur 61.4
Bagur 59.1
Almatti 59
Basgod 58.6
Arasalu 58.6
Devarahalli 58.4
Katkol 58
Mangalore 57.6
Jewargi 56.6
Ankola 56.4
Bhadravathi 56.2
Ramgiri 55.2
Nagathan 55.1
Kuppe 54.8
Kumatagi 54.2
Bijapur 53.6
Bannur 53.6
Rabakavi 52
Chickjala 51.4
Areshankar 51.4
Hattimattur 50.6
Malemahadeshwara Hills 50.4
Amingad 50.4
Galagali 49.8
Allahalli 49.4
Udugani 49.4
Panchanahalli 49.2
Dharmasthala 49.2
Karadi 49
Sulkeri 48.6
Sutagatti 48.6
Nalwar 48.2
Hosakere 47.6
Hubli 47.4
Tegur 47.2
Yellapur 46.6
Horti 46
Savanur 45.3
Kalgi 45.2
Dhavalgi 45
Madabhavi 45
Savalagi 44
Hethur 43.6
Karjagi 43.5
Shahapur 43
Guledgudd 43
Vajrahalli 42.6
Nagnur-Byaraj 42.2
Bevur 41.8
Aversa 41.8
Baindur 41.6
Telsang 41.2
Murgod 41
Pradhani 41
Kerebilachi 40.2
Kalmala 40
Haveri 40
Sunkasal 40
and its almost off season. Need more rains ?

Anonymous said...

if my words hurts anybody than sorry dnt mean to hurt anybody.i jst want the blog to be as simple as sir runs ok .we dnt need diffrent forecasts of different peoples plz for god sake let it be simple n sweet what sir does.we dnt need different types of forecasters every day.sir has his experience on this
so let sir handle it in a better way plz



Anonymous said...

@anonymous thanks for ur reply at least u read my comment that is more then enough for me, i keep giving my opinion as per my standards, to read it or not is ur wish to follow or not is upto u, and as per mis- guiding ,my predictions are not put rajesh sir's predictions aside. dont speak like a coward , speak openly like man, with ur name in ur comment.


thanks preeti sawant

Anonymous said...

i m sorry too for passing remark. because of one person who speaks out of his senses.



thanks preeti sawant

Abhijit Modak said...

Cloud blanket faded here.. Now again bright sunshine and bit foggy too.. Hoping for thunderheads to form by evening/night period.

Anonymous said...

very well said preeti u should not bother because of one person , who got no sense. u keep going ,even rajesh sir appreciates ur views. and also abhijit , just ignore such comments.


thanks bipin

Anonymous said...

Seeing a lot more heated arguments these days on vagaries. Looks like heat is gtting us all.

- R Raut

Anonymous said...

Yes Abhijit , here too the blanket of clouds have faded away, and as u said thunderclouds should develop , well let me tell you, it has already started to form here i can clearly see it towards the northeastern side of the sky.we have to wait and see its further development.by evening.

Anonymous said...

Hi Rajesh,

I have been following this blog since last 4 years. Of late, i find the readers are mis-using the comment section with unparlimentary language. Thankfully i still find Pavan, Pradeep, NT , Emkay , GSB, Abhijit , Tyrone and Neeraj adding value through their comments.

Rajesh do you think this is the price one pays for being popular blog :)

Regards, Ananth

Anonymous said...

yes Abhijit the thundercloud has already started to form here at virar it is a thundercloud with an envil shape .


preeti sawant

emkay said...

Thanks Ananth for those compliments, dearly needed it after being literally knocked down as a dimwit !!

Anonymous said...

one word from you that has made some people fall on track , from offtrack, people who were not mentioning their names have started mentioning their names,well its understood that people dont understand good language. very good , i appreciate ur reply preeti.

neelam

Anonymous said...

very dissappointing to see somehow people like to ignite fire thru their comments , speak out openly with ur name , appreciate others views nobody is an expert, everyone learns thru someone . keep patience if u dont like someones view dont read it , but plz dont speak behind the cutains like a lady.its very shameful for a man speakin like anonymous.commenting harsh on a women, learn to respect a women's point of view.


Anita kulkarni

Abhijit Modak said...

Yes.. Here in Badlapur also thunderclouds formation seen at N/NE/E directions.. Was busy bit so not watched the sky for last 1hr.. Hoping for building it now !

Anonymous said...

yes abhijit here too the thunderclouds have formed fully and r now advancing towards the western side. it has fully formed thundercloud .at last. here at virar.

thanks preeti

Abhijit Modak said...

Here all mix up.. Very foggy & sun getting hazy.. Some patches left out so blue sky also.. And in all this rain drops also falling.. Sun snap on Vagaries FB.

Anonymous said...

A loud thunder was heard just now at 5:25 PM FROM THE THUNDERCLOUDS WHICH STARTED MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN SIDE HERE AT VIRAR. ANOTHER 30- 45 MINS MINS WE SHOULD GET THUNDERSHOWERS HERE AT VIRAR.

PREETI SAWANT

Abhijit Modak said...

Here in Badlapur now more foggy can't see beyond of 3kms ! Very sweaty and uncomfortable weather and turning dark around but no thundering yet !

Anonymous said...

continous thundering can be heard here at vasai at the moment its turning dark.


bipin

Anonymous said...

well atlast abhijit we have a thunderstorm at our door step.may be another 30 mins away.

preeti sawant

Anonymous said...

everything has become so still and calm here at vasai , just how it happens before a storm strikes its also very humid at the moment and thundering is continuing.

bipin

Abhijit Modak said...

Ya.. Preeti.Still waiting.. No Thunder sound in Badlapur yet. But drops falling now & getting more dark now.

Abhijit Modak said...

First thundering heard here in Badlapur & now thick rains drops started to fall here.

Anonymous said...

That anonymous is such an idiot, who spoke abt preeti that she is trying to interfere everywhere .i have seen that preeti never overruled rajesh sirs opinion, but instead expresses her views.keeping rajesh sirs predictions at the top.



Anita kulkarni

Anonymous said...

thundering has increased here at vasai.also it has become very sweaty and very dark.


bipin

Abhijit Modak said...

Heavy rain with huge thundering & lightening striking and also strong gusty winds blowing from NE here in Badlapur at moment

GSB said...

Thick black clouds have formed here in Thane(Godhbundar road). Heard first thunder a few minutes back. Looks good for a strong spell.

NT said...

The doppler radar reveals a band of very heavy rain approaching Mumbai and surrounding areas. Rain intensity is 50mms/hr and upwards. The clouds are now moving quickly in the SW direction and should most likely be over mainland Mumbai in another 30 minutes or so

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Enjoying farewell very much.. Very strong gusty winds blowing. Very dark so cannot take snap & cannot shoot also.. And lightening are grounding in near by area so severe thundersound can be heard so cannot go in terrace as it is dangerous at moment and rain intensity too very high.

GSB said...

Very strong lightening and thunder here at the moment. Rainfall moderate to heavy in the past 10 minutes.

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur records 50mm rain in 50mins. Medium rain continuing here . Temp drop to 24 C at moment from 31 C which was at 6pm. So feeling very comfortable now.

rajesh said...

torrential rains and heavy lightning here (mahalaxmi)..just started @ 7.15 pm...

GSB said...

28mm recorded here in 20 minutes. Temprature is 24°C .

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur had 70kmph winds from NE at initial. Then very torrential rains for 45mins. Then medium rains for 15mins and at moment light drizzles now. While torrential rains were on that time temp got reduced to 22 C.. Now at moment 24 C. But at 6pm it was 31 C. No electricity here from past 1hr !

Anonymous said...

heavy rains have started again at vasai, thundering is at its peak, also windy.


bipin

Anonymous said...

RAJESH SIR AND ABHIJIT MODAK AT LAST THE FAREWELL RAINS ARE HERE, WITH A BIG BANG.VERY GLAD .

dixy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Puneet Bangera said...

Very severe thunderstorms at dombivli started at 6:15 pm continued with heavy raining till 6:45pm.And here at 8:50, again thundering had come.
So enjoy the farewell party.

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur records 60mm till 8.30pm today. In that 50mms from 6.10pm to 7pm. Then from 7pm to 8.30pm added 10mm.