26th April ...👇
Vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather since 55 years For Any Information taken from here, due credit must be given to Vagaries.
Friday, April 26, 2024
GLOBAL AURORAS ON MARS:
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Sunday, April 21, 2024
Monsoon Watch -2 ...2024....21st April.
1.Mascrene Highs...
This is a series of Very High Pressure areas. The power house of the S.W. Monsoon forming down South.
Formations below the Normal requirement.
2. Seasonal Pre Monsoon Heat...well, there is complaint of "Heat", but observe the real scene.
The squares show the "below normal" anomaly. The Monsoon parameters see this....reality
3. Seasonal Low
As discussed, we should normally see a low sometime after the 15th of April.
Saturday, April 20, 2024
- The ending of La Nina of 2022-2023 (which was actually a 3-year event, from 2020 onwards!)
- Formation and peaking of El Nino of 2023-2024
- Now the decline of the 2023-2024 El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific.
Friday, April 19, 2024
Weekend outlook; 20th/21st/22nd April
Mumbai:
Dry heat gone...warm stuffy discomfort coming !
After seeing blistering heat last week at 38/39°, the next three days will witness a drop in day temperatures to 34/35°. But, with the humidity going high to almost 80% the actual feel ( 38°c) will be more sweaty and uncomfortable.
Warm stuffy nights at 26°c.
Pune:
Possibility of patchy thundershowers in some areas.
Days around 39/40°c. But humidity around 55% may make it stuffy.
Above Normal nights at 23°c.
Mahabaleshwar:
At 33°c, Hot and warm by this hill station standards, resulting in a thundershower on Saturday/Sunday.
Thursday, April 18, 2024
- A high-pressure system (anticyclone) is present in the lower levels of the atmosphere over the Arabian Sea, usually from March to May-end, till Monsoon onset.
- The presence of this high pressure causes some southerly winds over the Oman coast, but does not give such extreme rainfall.
- This high pressure is seen every year, but we do not see such rain events every year.
- The variation in the location and intensity of this high pressure also affects the weather for the west coast of India, by sometimes delaying the sea breeze or even setting in the sea breeze early.
- There was no strong high pressure over western Maharashtra across the first few kilometers of the atmosphere, otherwise we wouldn't have witnessed thunderstorms developing over the Ghats and Madhya Maharashtra regions.
- Explained by Vagarian Shreyas
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
U.A.E. Oman and Dubai face severe W.D.
SEE WORLD WEATHER NEWS PAGE
UAE had surpassed all the paper records in 75 years since 1949
They recv more than enough.
Total rainfall of 3.5 years receives in just 1.5days
Highest places received rainfall between
14.04.2024 to 17.04.02024 morning
Khatam Al shaknah in Al ain (Abu Dhabi)
259.5 mm
Kalba in sharjah
239.5mm
Al Marmoom in Dubai Al ain road
219.4mm
Wadi Al tuwa in ras Al khaimah
205.6mm
Margham in dubai
200.6mm
Saih Al Salem in Dubai
198.6mm
Ras Al Ghanadah in Dubai
197.1mm
Al faqa in Al ain (Abu Dhabi)
189.1mm
Raknah and Al qattara in Al ain(Abu Dhabi)
186.1mm
Al jurf in Dubai
185.9mm
Umm Al Ghar in Al ain(Abu Dhabi)
178.1mm
Al rowdah in Al ain (Abu Dhabi)
176.2mm
Dubai IA
142mm
Al ain IA
127.2mm
Sharjah IA
123.8mm
Zayed IA(Abu Dhabi)
100.2mm
Ras al khaimah(IA)
48.5mm
Abu Dhabi city
91.1mm
Dubai Jumeirah
168mm
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Looking Down from Space !A Different angle of seeing the Total Solar Eclipse. Other than the one we see normally:
The Moon’s shadow swept over North America, from the Pacific coast of Mexico, through Texas, and over the Great Lakes before crossing the Atlantic coast of Newfoundland, Canada.
On April 8, 2024, millions of Americans saw day turn temporarily to night as the Moon passed between the Sun and Earth to create a total solar eclipse.
As people in the 115-mile-wide (185-kilometer-wide) path of totality looked up and saw the Moon conceal the bright orb of the Sun and obscure all but its wispy corona, Earth-observing satellites captured imagery of the Moon’s shadow as it raced eastward over North America.
About 1 million miles from Earth, NASA’s EPIC (Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera) imager on the DSCOVR (Deep Space Climate Observatory) satellite, captured the above views of Earth.
NASA Earth Observatory
Monday, April 15, 2024
Today..15th
Pune : 40.8°c..with thundershowers
Mahabaleshwar 33.0°c
Mumbai MMR👇
Mumbai and Interior in line with our weekly estimate.------------------------------
The topic of excited discussion encouraged by the "Warming" publicity...
"Wow..really hot this year..never seen this in April..etc"....But,
Public memory is very short..👇👇👇
15th April 2016...from Vagaries blog 👇
Sunday, April 14, 2024
First two weeks of April 2024 for Pune third warmest since 2013
Pune (Shivajinagar) recorded the highest temperature of the season on 14 April which is 39.9c.
The average maximum temperature of April so far (1-14 April) is 39.2c, this is the third highest average maximum temperature in this period since 2013.
The attached map shows the average maximum temperature for Pune Shivajinagar in the first 2 weeks of April since 2013. Data: IMD
Saturday, April 13, 2024
Thursday, April 11, 2024
11th April:
Vidharbh gets the thundershowers...
Continuing as mentioned in blog on 7th:
Vidarbha and Marathwada region: Unstable Atmospeheric conditions with wind discontinuity and wind convergence (winds from 2 different directions meet), along with good moisture availability caused thunderstorms to develop in these regions. Favourable wind patterns in the upper atmosphere also helped rain and thunderstorms to sustain for a longer duration, so daytime temperatures remained below normal.
11th Day temperatures see below normal figures 👇..
Nagpur today in the day was Colder than Abu and Ooty👇
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Monsoon Watch - 1..2024:
These reports are the views, study and observations of Vagaries. Estimates and forecasts are also the calculation of Vagaries, and may/may not tally with any other estimates. This may not be used for commercial purposes. Vagaries of Weather is not responsible for any commercial loss from this article, or these series of articles.
The Monsoon developments, as they unfold, will be analysed and discussed and explained in Vagaries.
The South West Monsoon is just about 35 days away from its normal date of arrival from the shores of India ! Yes ! its just 35 days from the First touch of shores...Southern most point of India on the South Andaman Islands, Indira Point, where the normal arrival date is 15th May.
And its about time we start the follow up of its progress and monitor its developments.
This annual series is a follow up and chasing of the South-West Monsoon.
Every article in this series explains the synoptic situation as it actually is, and based on the day's position, the date and quantum of rains as per THIS SITUATION.
It is very important to firstly estimate the date of arrival of the South West Monsoon, as year to year, variations in dates of onset of the monsoon can occur and there have been several occasions in the past when the monsoon arrived over certain parts of the country about a fortnight earlier or later than the normal dates. The SWM has the weatherman tearing😒at his hair for the exact date or time, extent and progress. This is never 100 per cent sure though various weather national / international models are used to calculate this event.
Initially, this series will be chasing and closely following up the actual developments of the monsoon parameters, and analysing its progress for calculating and estimating the arrival date.
We are not yet contemplating the quantum of rains or the monsoon strength as yet.
1. The Mascrene High, the power House of te S.W. Monsoon, still in the nascent stage.
2023 showed almost similar High at 1033
So, no question of the proper cross equatorial winds developing yet.
2.ENSO:
El Niño continues and is near its end. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to return to ENSO-neutral later in 2024.
Transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (62% chance).
Inference: Chances of a good Monsoon.
3.Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC
3. March Observations:
Inference: Too early to spot the Seasonal Lows...Awaiting the Heat Waves.
Monsoon Estimates: Seems to be Normal Monsoon....Arrival date cannot be estimated yet.
Next MW -2 on 21st April.
Posted 26th April 2024... Currently, no indications of any Severe Heat Waves or highly above normal temperatures this season... And currentl...
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Wettest Monsoon Day in 2013 for maharashtra...See pradeep's Page BB-4 lingers on, and on Tuesday, was located as a weak low over N...
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Pune recorded 87 mm ending 8.30am today. With this achieved 1000 mm mark! Seasonal Rainfall stands on 1018 mms now. Last night Widespread...