Thursday, July 31, 2014

Thursday Afternoon
BB-5 weakens, but the associated UAC is staioned west of BB-5 , currently over Gujarat/Rajasthan. The westwards trough is tilting west with height.
UAC is expected to persist over Saurashtra and then shift SW by Friday morning.

Mumbai City:
Thursday..Pic

Heavy rains to continue in sporadic "on-off" regularity till late Thursday night in Mumbai city and outer townships. Very gusty winds along the Mumbai sea coast. Decrease in rains on Friday. But still could get some occasional showers on Friday.  
Very heavy falls in the Northern regions. 
Heavy precipitation till Thursday night along North Konkan and South Gujarat coast...and increasing into Saurashtra. Overnight showers in Saurashtra.


Thursday Morning Rains last 24 hrs: The Heavy weights: Lamaj  and Mahableshwar 432 mms, Amboli 300 mms...more from our Vagaries Rainman Section.







Posted Thursday Morning:
Heavy Rains in North Mumbai on Thursday. Scruz records 77 mms in 3 hrs from 08.30 am while Colaba manages 2 mms. Vagaries sees 16 mms.
Heavy rains will commence in South Mumbai post noon and continue with very frequent showers in Mumbai City till Night. 12 hrs reading can cross 150 mms at Scruz and 75 mms at Colaba.

Meanwhile Scruz has recorded the Wettest July ever by gauging up 1469 mms in the month Previously highest was 1456  mms (1965).

Heavy rains likely to commence in South Gujarat coast and pars of Saurashtra on Thursday..

More updates coming..

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Posted Wednesday Evening: 
UAC 2 is over Kutch at 700 hp . Upper air axis trough runs from SE Sindh thru Gujarat to North Odhisha.
MP, Kutch getting heavy rains as on Wednesday Evening. In Pakistan, SE Sindh getting thunder showers.

Gujarat Rains as on Wednesday Morning:
Main Gujarat Region: Kadi 317 mms, Ahamdabad 288 mms ,Sanand 235 mms, Kalol 220 mms, Khambhat 197 mms, Mansa 140 mms, Nadiad 118 mms, Dholera 116 mms, Anklav 109 mms, Gandhinagar 102 mms.
Saurashtra: Barvala 246 mms, Bhavnagar 125 mms, 

South Gujarat: Waghai 290 mms, Kaprada 289 mms ( Season's total in Kaprada 1272 mms: Highest in Gujarat State this Season)., Dharampur 280 mms, Ahwa 237 mms, Valsad 222 mms, Pardi 213 mms, Vapi 181 mms, Vansda 173 mms, Olpad 162 mms, Khergam 149 mms, Jalalpor 140 mms, Navsari 127 mms, Surat City 92 mms, Hansot 90 mms, Ankleshwar 74 mms, Jambuser 77 mms, Bharuch 50 mms, Surat IMD 48 mms.

From Abhijit Modak ..
Mumbai..Scruz 131 mms, Colaba 23 mms and Vagaries 45 mms. Average for Colaba and Scruz 77 mms.vagaries estimate 60-80 mms for Mumbai City.

Heavy Rain lashes around Mumbai region. Water supplying lake got much needed rain :

Some rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today (30-07-2014):
 

Modak Sagar Overflows..!!
Mumbai water supplying lake rainfall for today in mms :




Bhatsa 210
Tulshi lake(Mumbai) 208
Modak sagar 205 (100% full it is overflowing from morning)
Vaitarna 179
Vihar lake(Mumbai) 177
Middle Vaitarna 170
Tansa 139

Ghat rainfall ending 8.30am today:

Mulshi 378
Lonavala 318
Walvan,Lonavala 247
Mahabaleshwar 155
Koyna 138 



Heavy rain lashes Thane District.. Rain massive in Thane Dist..
Some rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today (30-07-2014):

Barvi Dam(Badlapur) 293
Badlapur mine(private) 290
Badlapur Agri 250
Vikramgadh 235
Murbad 234
Surya dam 233
Ambernath 224
Kalyan 214
Jawhar 185
Bhivandi 165
Ulhasnagar 149
Thane 145
Shahapur 141
Wada 137
Talasari 105
Dahanu 103
Vasai 102
Palghar 46


Monday, July 28, 2014

BB-5 now at sea level over Odisha and pressure at 996 mb. Gradually merging in axis as UAC.
UAC 2 forms over West MP...and moving West as shown in vagaries' map.

Mumbai received 50 ms at Scruz and 18 mms at colaba in the day on Tuesday (against 60-80 mms forecasted for Tuesday day and night). Heavy rains in excess of 100 mms  as forecasted for Wednesday.

Surat got 48 mms in 12 hrs on Tuesday...more is forecasted from Wednesday .> 110 mms.

Nagpur can get heavy showers Tuesday night and earlty Wednesday.

Regions of Pakistan Central areas as shown in vagaries' map get showers on Tuesday.

Valsad had received 260 mms in 24 hrs ended 8.30 am Tuesday and another 153 mms till 5.30 pm Tuesday.
Kaprada in Valsad region got a massive 307 mms in 24 hrs ended Tuesday morning.

Navi Mumbai 67 mms till 8.30 am Tuesday.


See Mumbai Page for Rohit's Updates on Regional Rains...

Posted Monday 28th Night: Latest Mumbai Lake Levels on Mumbai Page

BB-5 currently as a low, will deepen slightly to around 994/996 mb by Tuesday 29th /Wednesday 30th, and track inland as shown in chart. System will survive as a UAC at 700 hpa levels till Thursday.
Another Low forms over the Gujarat/Rajasthan region. This forms mainly as the axis slip southwards. Associated with a strong UAC, the other seasonal low will be capable of precipitating heavy rains in the areas shown. 
Very Heavy rains expected in Kutch.
Very heavy rains amounting to > 110 mms expected in Surat and Bharuch from Tuesday evening.

UAC 2 will move West and effect the Sindh coast on Thursday. 

Mumbai City: Tuesday 29th  and Wednesday 30th  city will see intermittent rains, occasional showers. Heavy showers with prolonged duration, can lead to flooding in some areas.
Rains would amount to about 60-80 mms on Tuesday and 70-90 mms Wednesday.
Summary: Mumbai City:130-170 mms expected next 2 days (Tuesday/Wednesday).
All Northern and Eastern Outer townships can expect very heavy rains in excess of 100 mms next 2 days.
Thursday 31st: After a wet morning, rains decrease in intensity on Thursday. 




Intermittent rains and few heavy showers on Monday in Mumbai...

Sunday, July 27, 2014



Mumbai: With rainfall 24 hrs ended Monday morning at 143 mms for Scruz, 81 mms at Colaba and 86 mms at Vagaries... and intermittent rain on Monday bringing another 70 mms or more, local flooding precaution to be taken

Posted Sunday Night:
BB-5 Persists, and possibly will strengthen at the 700 hp level. Weakening above this level. 
As BB-5 tracks W/NW, it will tilt W/SW with height, and the entire upper trough will attract moisture into the Northern Maharashtra and South Gujarat coast.

Heavy precipitation on Monday along the Northern parts Konkan and upto Anand coast in Gujarat. Morning showers in Surat and North Konkan. Surat can get showers on Monday , and accumulate rains upto 50 mms.
Heavy showers in Vidharbh, Odisha, Telengana and AP.

Regions North of Mumbai likely to get more rains. Intermittent thunder showers in Mumbai with rains getting very heavy at times. Another 50-70 mms possible on Monday 28th, and Mumbai may be within reach of the wettest July ever...!

If Tulsi Lake (supplying to Mumbai) gets over 50 mms on Sunday night, good chances of it overflowing !                                         

click on Picture        

Posted Sunday afternoon: BB-5 Descends to sea level. A surprise surge (its called "sympathy wave or sympathy formation) occurs across the latitude on west coast. This normally occurs when the system crosses land and tracks inwards.
This one is quick....!!


Flash News: A "strip" of Cloud heads for Mumbai. As on 1.30 pm IST, Northern areas have got more rains than South Mumbai. Northern suburbs till 1.30 pm have receieved average 35-40 mms , while South Mumabi has measured 15 mms average.

Friday, July 25, 2014

Keeping watch on Western Pacific Region for tropical development....

Article on Marathwada Weather and Water Facts will appear in Lokmat Times on Monday 28th July...on Current Weather Page

Posted Friday Night:

Saturday 26th :

A UAC formed in the North Bay off the Odisha/Bengal coast at 20N, is expected to persist, and slope SW with height.

Effectively, Gangatic W.Bengal may see heavy showers on Saturday. heavy falls may exceed 70 mms. 
Kolkata can expect cloudy weather and heavy falls on Saturday.

The Monsoon axis runs from Pakistan Punjab thru North Rajasthan thru North MP thru Jharkhand into the UAC.
So, we have isolated showers  along the axis. Nothing unusual or system type. NW and North India and Pakistan may see some showers. But we see nothing meaningful from any system. Showers will be in isolated pockets in Punjab and Haryana regions.
Showers of same type in Pak Punjab also.

West coast trough remains weak. All along West coast rains remain below normal and passing showers bring 20-30 mms.

Rainfall remains subdued in Southern Peninsula and Kerala.
The UAC in the Arabian Sea gets very weak and almost fizzles out by Saturday night. Some showers along the Sindh coast on Satursday.

Sunday 27th.

The UAC in the Bay persists. Rainfall continues in Gangatic West Bengal with possible spill over in adjoining Odisha.
West coast: Same as Saturday.

Sindh Pakistan: Rainfall decreases. North India/Pakistan and NW India: same as Saturday. Isolated showers, medium in some patches.

Saurashtra and Gujarat gets a break from heavy rains...nothing meaningful. Just 1-5 mms in places.

Mumbai: Saturday and Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with sunny periods. Passing showers. Rainfall around 20 mms/day.
Eastern Outer townships get sunny periods with passing showers, some heavy. showers will not be persistent and expected rainfall around 30 mms/day.
Pune: Partly cloudy with light rains in parts of city. Rains increasing from Wednesday next.

Re Published in Detail as required by readers:
Delhi NCR: Thunder shower expected on Sunday evening. Could precipitate 20-30 mms in parts.Thunder showers may spill into Monday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday NCR region, being in the axis path, will get the passing shower in patches . Meaning no system rains.
Punjab may get the slight increase in rains on Tuesday IF the impending WD effect slides down from North Pakistan to Indian Punjab.

Next week..28th - 1st August:

The current UAC in the North Bay will strengthen, and possibly descend to sea level by 29th July. This would effectively number it as BB-5. 
This would form by 29th July off the Odisha coast and track W/NW.
West coast rains pick up after Wednesday. Particularly heavy will be along the Karnataka coast.
Upper sindh and Punjab regions of Pakistan can get precipitation. Rainfall expected in many parts of Sindh and adjoining Punjab on Tuesday and Wednesday. Coastal and Southern Sindh will be almost dry.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As forecast last week, Parts of SE Sindh get showers on Thursday and Friday. Karachi sees mild rains on Friday and Hyderabad 20 mms.Light rains like 3 mms in Nagarparkar and 2.4 mms in Mirpurkhas was measured.

Upper Punjab received very good showers. Islamabad measured 71 mms and Rawalpindi 54 mms in the day today (Friday).
Gujarat (Pakistan) received 14 mms till Friday morning.Temperatures are in the 29-24c range.

The UAC, remant of BB-4, tracked West as expected. Thursday Rains in MP were good, and measured 36 mms at Datia, 19 mms at Deobhog.
As forcasted on Sunday 20th, , Kutch region received heavy showers. On Thursday, Anjar got 81 mms, Gandhdham 65 mms, Bachau 62 mms. 
Also in North and central Gujarat, Kheda 122 mms Bavla got 116 mms, Sanand 90 mms, Danta 88 mms,  Dascroi 63 mms 
Saurashtra lso got some showers: Muli 166 mms, Lakhtar 120 mms, Malia Miana 117 mms, Chuda 112 mms,
In South coastal Gujarat, Bardoli 106 mms and Chorasiya and Palsana 68 mms.
All along expected lines...now what ?

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

As mentioned, rains are decreasing East of the system.
System will fade away around the North Gujarat area on Thursday. Rains for a day in North Gujarat and South Saurastra/ Gujarat.
 As the easterly upper winds from the fading system dominate and rush into the North Arabian Sea, another UAC forms on Thursday night in North Central Arabian Sea.
This was mentioned last week.

Mumbai will see a few retreating  showers from the system on Thursday before showing decreasing rains by evening on Friday.

Monday, July 21, 2014

Mawsynaram leads the All India SWM Rainfall Toppers from 01.06.2014 to 15.07.2014

This year SWM Toppers are giving a bleak picture compared to last 4 years race. The stand out performer is Mawsynaram which is leading the 2nd place Cherrapunji by 1000 mm, which is still in deficit. But the rains in Karnataka and Maharashtra have picked up after 15th July. Hence, watchout for the month end toppers. There would be drastic change in the toppers.

min 1500 mm

1. Mawsynaram, Meghayala  - 4450
2. Cherrapunji, Meghalaya - 3514
3. Talacauvery, Karnataka - 2311
4. Panbari, Assam, - 1950
5. Kuttiyadi, Kerala - 1928
6. Hulikal, Karnataka - 1909
7. Pookot, Kerala  - 1825
8. Gokarna, Karnataka - 1817
9. Suralbhi, Karnataka - 1770
10. Yadur, Karnataka - 1746
11. Agumbe, Karnataka - 1724
12. Mastikatte, Karnataka - 1723
13. Nilkund, Karnataka - 1708
14. Kogar, Karnataka - 1704
15. Mani Dam, Karnataka - 1652
16. Kollur, Karnataka - 1650
17. Bhagamandala, Karnataka - 1620
18. Pambla, Kerala - 1582
19. Malvan, Maharashtra - 1530
20. Margao, Goa - 1517
21. William Nagar, Meghlaya - 1502
22. Uloor II, Karnataka ~ 1500
23. Gersoppa, Karnataka ~ 1500
24. Amboli, Maharashtra ~ 1500
25. Rongo, West Bengal ~ 1500
26. Amagaon, Karnataka - 1445 (till 14th)

Sunday, July 20, 2014

Posted Sunday Night:

Major Developments:

Monday 21st: The current UAC over Odisha (on Sunday) is expected to track Westwards . The upper air trough subsequently formed, will guide the UAC westwards, and as it tracks west, it may form a Line of Wind discontinuity within the trough on Monday 21st. IF this materialises, then very heavy rains can be expected in Eastern/Central MP...roughly covering the regions around Jabalpur and Bhopal. 
Anyway, good precipitation is expected on Monday in Central MP and parts of adjoining Vidharbh.

Tuesday 22nd: The system tracks westwards towards West MP/Gujarat and SE Rajasthan.
Would expect heavy rains in Central MP and Bhopal and Ujjain regions. North Maharshtra sees an increase in rains.

Wednesday 23rd, we can most likely get rains in Northern Gujarat region and parts of Kutch. Saurashtra gets some showers along with Coastal South Gujarat.
Increase in rains along Konkan and Goa from Tuesday night.
Adjoining parts of SE Sindh becomes cloudy with some patches getting thunder showers.

The  areas East of the system gradually reducing in precipitation.

Mumbai gets some on/off showers on Monday. Tuesday evening rains increasing and Wednesday getting intermittent heavy showers. again, 30-40 mms on Tuesday night/Wednesday.75 mms in 2 days
Pune: Showers on Tuesday accumulating 12-15 mms in the day.

Delhi NCR will have to wait till Thursday for major meaningful rains to restart. Days may rise to 35c...next 2 days.

Couple of showers for Kolkata and rain generally decreasing.

Rains increasing again in Surat from Tuesday night.

Southern Peninsula (Bangalore) sees no major change next 3 days...maybe getting drier.

Pakistan: Sibbi was 44c on Sunday...so Balochstan and parts of Sindh still hot. 
After Monday 21st, till Wednesay, Parts of SE Sindh will be cloudy and in some patches thunder showers can be expected on Tuesday Night and Wednesday. 
Upper Punjab region of Pakistan adjoining Kashmir region may get isolated rains in some pockets .

Saturday, July 19, 2014

Updating Late Sunday Night..

All India Monsoon deficit as on 19th July: -32%

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Mumbai Lake Meter: 19th July: Total Storage 2.01 lmlt
Last year 9.33 lmlt and 2012 2.66 lmlt...Full Capacity 14.5 lmlt

Click on Picture


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Posted Friday 18th Night:

Saturday 19th
1. An UAC forms on Saturday in Saurashtra at 500 hp level. Due to adverse factors, will not last beyond evening hours on Saturday. 
Heavy rains likely in Central Saurashtra in the day. Heavy falls likely along the trough line, from North Gujarat thru SE Rajasthan and North MP upto West UP.
As the UAC forms, rains increase from Saturday night in Coastal and North Odisha. Some showers in Kolkata.

Sunday 20th
2.BB-4 as a surface Low may not materialise. In conjunction, a UAC takes form by Sunday morning off the Odisha coast. UAC will deepen and track westwards.
3. During Sunday, an upper air trough forms east west along the South Bengal/North Odisha/ Chattisgarh line.
Rains with heavy falls in East MP, North Odisha and Chattisgarh. Some medium rains in Haryana/Punjab (Thunder showers) and Northern regions of Vidharbh.
Southern W.Bengal and Kolkata can get showers in the day.

4. Sunday, again, dry air pushes from North into Pakistan and West Rajasthan and Kutch...bringing the UTH down.But SW surface winds continue in Gujarat, and taper off in Sindh coastline.
For Pakistan, Sunday, barring some rains in Upper Punjab and extreme North, rest regions almost dry. Dry and partly cloudy for Karachi. Temperatures rising again in Pak Punjab and Sindh ...with regions touching 45c in Sindh/Balochistan and 40c in some Punjab cities.

Surat: Saturday: Occasional showers, with a few spots getting heavy rain showers. Rain amounting to around 25-30 mms till Sunday morning.
Sunday will also see few showers in the day, some instant and brief in some areas. Rains decrease by night.
Rains increase next week from Tuesday or Wednesday. Can expect 100 mms next week.

Mumbai
Saturday will see few showers. Some will be heavy and with gusty winds. some areas will get brief spells. Rains amounting to aroud 25 mms. till Sunday morning.
Sunday will see occasional showers with sunny periods. Lesser rain than Saturday. 
Rains increasing next week from Tuesday or Wednesday. About 125-150 mms next week.
Goa also sees rain intensity increasing from Tuesday/Wednesday. May amount to 150 mms next week.

Pune : Saturday and Sunday will be partly cloudy with light rains amounting to upto 5 mms. Monday evening sees some moderate showers. Rains between Monday and Tuesday may amount to 15-20 mms. Decreasing from Wednesday.

Nagpur: Showers of heavy intensity from Sunday thru Monday. 2 days may accumulate 50-55 mms of rain.

Next Week 21st - 26th:

1. The UAC ( Result of BB-4), will track Westwards . Bringing as a result good rains in MP, North Maharshtra and Gujarat. 
2. But, almost no rainfall in Sindh, and Pak Punjab. We see a counter productive upper winds from the North.
These strong winds may force the UAC to fizzle out just before reaching Gujarat.
3. The West coast remains active till Sunday.
4. As the system moves West, the Northern part, Maharasthra Coast remains active till Wednesday. After Thursday, off shore trough goes weak.
South Interior Peninsula sees no meaningfull rains next week.

Heavy rains in Delhi NCR and North India on 25th Friday and 26th Saturday. 26th also sees rains covering Eastern India.
BB-4 will go as a UAC, but BB-5, next Low from Bay around 28th July...

Thursday, July 17, 2014



Weekend Forecast for Sub Continent and Mumbai...and long term next week summary ..coming up late tonite on Current weather page

Forecasted Rains in Delhi..See Current Weather Page

Mumbai Lakes levels as on 17th July ...Prepared by Jayesh Mehta
The lakes are 90% empty as per the final total ...1.45 lmltrs storage today against full capacity of 14.5  lmltrs...See Chart of each lake on Mumbai Page

MONSOON REPORT (1-7-2014 TO 15-7-2014)
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 15-7-2014) 180.5
SEASON +/- -40%
RAINFALL THIS FORTNIGHT (from 1-7-2014) 88.1 mm
TO ACHIEVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER          required per day------->    mm
MINIMUM                             700   mm 6.75
AVERAGE                            890   mm 9.21
MAXIMUM                          1100   mm 11.94
CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY  4.01 mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL PER DAY THIS FORTNIGHT 5.87 mm
REQUIRED PER DAY TO ACHIEVE JULY NORMAL (295 mm) 12.93 mm
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS FORTNIGHT    mm
KONKAN & GOA 542.1
COASTAL KARNATAKA 475.9
KERALA 313.8
A & N ISLAND 272.1
SHWB & SIKKIM 220.5
BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS FORTNIGHT     mm
PUNJAB 22.6
HAR. CHD & DELHI 20.8
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH 20.2
GUJARAT REGION 19.0
WEST RAJASTHAN 6.8
TOP THREE SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL (as on 15th July)    mm
RAYALASEEMA 10%
A & N ISLAND 10%
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERRY 10%
(ONLY THREE SUBDIVISIONS ARE ABOVE NORMAL TILL DATE
that is why I have given ten subdivisions that are below normal)
BOTTOM TEN SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL (as on 15th July)    mm
VIDARBHA -59%
WEST MADHYA PRADESH -59%
HAR. CHD & DELHI -62%
MADHYA MAHARASHTRA -64%
PUNJAB -66%
EAST RAJASTHAN -68%
WEST RAJASTHAN -72%
WEST U.P. -73%
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH -75%
GUJARAT REGION -89%
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS TILL 15TH JULY 5  (11%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS TILL 15TH JULY 40 (89%)
source -IMD



Outlook for Thursday 17th for Sub Continent posted on Wednesday 16th Night on Current Weather Page...

Monday, July 14, 2014

Posted 11.00 pm IST Wednesday: 
In a few hours, Statistical Analysis of SWMonsoon performance till 15th July  by GSB on this Page
Next few days weather outlook on Current Weather Page

Welcome Showers in parts of Saurashtra:
Shihor 91 mms, Manavadar 75 mms, Vanthali 72 mms, Muli 58 mms, Gondal 56 mms, Chuda 55 mms, Jesar 50 mms, Vichhiya 36 mms,
In North Gujarat, Vadali 67 mms, Idar and Khedbrahma got 50 mms, Posina 41 mms. 
South Gujarat got major share, being along coast: Gandevi 150 mms, Umergam 149 mms, Jalapor 120 mms, Valsad 112 mms, Navsari 101 mms,  Vapi 95 mms, Surat 47 mms. Ankleshwar 34 mms.Bharuch 30 mms

Mumbai Rains Last 24 hrs ended 8.30 am IST Wednesday: Colaba 228 mms, vagaries 225 mms, Byculla 221 mms, Scruz 174 mms, Chembur 159 mms, Dadar 206 mms, Goregaon 210 mms and Kandivali 162 mms...will put up Lake details later in the day on Mumbai Page
Quiz: This year saw the direst June ever for Colaba...55 mms...Will this year see the wettest July ever ? 

Posted Tuesday Night:
Basically, the overall map for Wednesday remains the same, except a few changes

1. Eastern parts of Gujarat gets heavy rains as the UAC moves NW. 
Surat : Wednesday will see clouded skies and frequent showers. Cool day, will see rainfall getting heavy by evening. Between Wednesday morning and Thursday morning, showers can accumulate up to 50-60 mms in Surat.

2. North Konkan will get heavier rains than the "purple" colour, maybe in the next   shade "Light Green".
Mumbai will get fairly frequent showers and heavy showers on Wednesday. Rains intensity decreasing afternoon/ evening. Showers will bring about 40 mms average rains in Mumbai.
Pune will see a nominal increase in showers on Wednesday. Afternoon Rain in parts of city will be a relief, and could measure around 10 mms on Wednesday. (3 mms on Tuesday)
Nagpur sees a reduction and decrease in rans on Wednesday.

3. Afternoon/evening showers in MP and Odisha on Wednesday from the residual moisture.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rainfall In Mumbai from 8.30 am to 8.30 pm IST Tuesday: Colaba 127 mms and Scruz 78 mms
Colaba season's total crosses the 1000 mm mark and is 1037 mms...NOW ABOVE NORMAL

Nagpur Lashed with 109 mms in 9 hrs from 8.30 am !! Wardha gets 85 mms and Amraoti 48 mms in the same period.
Konkan ranged between 119 mms at Colaba and 76 mms at Vagaries with Ratnagiri recording 74 mms and Alibag 57 mms. Rest were between 23 mm s(Scruz ) and 45 mms (Panjim). 

Reasoning and Answer to a query: Except for an unusual 119 mms at Colaba, we have seen between 20 mms and 50 mms at a majority of stations in Konkan and coastal Karnataka on Tuesday. 

The UAC from BB-3 has formed a UAC  in the gulf of Cambay. This was mentioned in Vagaries' Sunday blog. However, the  500 upper air level also sees a horizontal trough along the 20 N line (approximately)..





Mumbai Close Up Satellite..Monday Evening..Surrounded by Medium heavy rains...
BB-3 has weakened. The associated UAC at 500 hp is prominent over Central India and would run as a trough westwards next 12-18 hrs. UAC descends to 700 hp over Eastern MP/Chattisgarh...
More in post tonite

Friday, July 11, 2014

 BB-3 lies as a Low over Odisha and adjoining W.Bengal on Saturday evening. Upper air circulation extends upto 500 hp and tilts SW.The Low at sea level will rise to upper levels. Seems now that an upper air trough will form at 500/700 hp levels, instead of a UAC.
Upper air trough will run across from Odisha through MP till Gujarat.

Mumbai Monsoon Status with Lakes As on 12th July 2014...on Mumbai Page

Polar Vortex Returns to U.S. Mid West....from the Ohio Valley to the upper Mid-Atlantic..see International Page

Vagaries had kept the Monsoon hopes alive...and now sees things improving from this weekend...

Weekend Forecast and Current Position.....Posted 11th July.

BB-3 has formed, and is located off Odisha Coast. tilting SE with height and going into the 500 hp level. Major effect of precipitation in the Western segment of the Low.
System likely to move West, and remain as a UAC after Saturday Evening. The UAC will track Westwards across MP and move into the Gulf of Cambay on Monday 14th.

Saturday 12th: Very Heavy Precipitation in Telengana (Including Hyderabad), heavy rains in adjoining South Chattisgarh and Vidharbha. Good rains in Eastern Vidharbah and Nagpur and parts of N.I. Karnataka.
Heavy rains (> 80 mms) along Maharashtra Coastline and moderate rains ( 40-80 mms) along Karnataka and Kerala coast. Idukki region and mountains around can get heavy showers.
Light rains in Saurashtra.

Sunday 13th: Very Heavy rains in South MP, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada (including Aurangabad). Moderate rains along West Coast. Rains decreasing East of the UAC. Heavy showers in several parts of Odisha.
Gusty S/SE winds along the East Coast and strong SW winds off Maharashtra Coast.
Dry air which mved into North India and lay stable for the last 4 days, may see a shift now. The UAC ( BB-3) pressure creeps in the Central Indian region, and brings some moisture into the Gujarat, East rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana and West UP regions. as Upper air Easterly winds.


Monday 14th:  The UAC will possibly cross into the Gulf of Cambay. and merge into the off shore trough. It could soon remain as an UAC in the North Arabian Sea , off South Gujarat coast or North Konkan /South Gujarat coast.
Heavy rains in Gujarat region, South Gujarat ( Surat and Bharuch) and Saurashtra. Rains getting heavy in North Konkan.
Chances of rains increasing again in MP.
Rain again in Delhi NCR after Monday 14th.

Pakistan remains mainly dry and hot. Strong Northerly upper winds will keep the moistue away, and form a high pressure area over North Punjab and adjoining Extreme NW Pakistan.
No system or trough approaching Karachi to bring rains. Cloudy weather from the UAC may bring very light drizzles in the vicinity of the city this weekend. Nothing meaningful.

Mumbai: The current spell of rain shows a decrease in intensity from Saturday. The present trend of 100 mms per day will reduce to about 30 mms on Saturday and maybe 30-35 mms on Sunday.
If the UAC forms off the North Konkan coast on Monday, we could see an increase in rains again on Monday 14th.
Pune: Light to medium showers expected on the weekend with around 5-10 mms/day. Next week will also see showers in Pune.

Heavy rains in Hyderabad ( India) on Saturday.
Heavy Thunder showers in Nagpur this weekend.
Bangalore will see convective showers in the afternoon/evening this weekend.

No meaningfull rains inTN this weekend.

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See Mumbai Page for Lake Levels and Rainfall

Wednesday, July 09, 2014




Monsoon 2014: Progress and Prospects...9th July 





Review of the South West Monsoon in India till 9th July 2014: The overall performance till 9th July is bad. At -43%, it is considered as a threshhold of a drought. Normally, at the end of the season, anything below -20% is considered very bad, and drought parameters would be met with .
As on date, the worst affected region is Gujarat Region at -92% and Saurashtra at -83%...And that is bad, very bad !
But, overall, North West India is worst off as a region showing an average deficit of -48%, while the Central India is at -63%. 
Southern Peninsula is in bad condition at -38%. Map shows it all.



What happens now ? Will we face a full fledged drought ?

Before getting into a negative mood, let us analyse what will possibly happen in July.
Typhoon Neoguri has moved into Japan as a powerful category Typhoon. It has pulled off a lot of clouding from our region, but , it can also send in pulses into the Bay which will bring Low pressure systems into the Bay. As early as 12th July (BB-3). We can have a Low in the Bay, which can bring rains to much needed Central India.

A weak MJO will be prevailing in our seas for the next 2 weeks. A strong wave travels Eastwards, and enhances precipitation in Far SE Asia. But this also has a positive angle for the Indian Sub Continent ! A strong MJO in the Far East region in the South China Seas will enhance the chances of 1 or 2 more typhoons in the Pacific, West Pacific. And that would mean more pulses, and more systems in the Bay in July. 2/3 more Lows or depressions in July could be good for Central and NW India. And hopefully, better for the Sindh region of Pakistan if the systems survive the track through India.

ENSO is still in neutral phase. Not sufficiently gaining to make the El Nino mark yet. Sub Surface SST have cooled, and the SOI is getting into the negative mode. Currently at -3.3. But, all wind and atmospheric patterns remain neutral. So, persistent changes are required to go into the full El Nino phase, and for an El Nino to form, it can go into September.


BB-3 may form off AP/Odhisha around 12th July and track W/NW. 
BB-4 forming off Odisha coast around 21st July can track North-Westwards, as axis may come South wards. Soon after BB-4, axis shifts towards Himalayas again.

Vagaries gives a long term forecast for July (which can vary). 
All the above parameters may entice 
a) sufficient rains in Central India and Southern Peninsula for a normal July. These events can also trigger UACs in the Southern Bay.

b)North India (Delhi included) can get deficient rains in July. 

c) Saurashtra gets rains as off shore trough Northern end strengthens from 11th. Again, as BB-4 moves west, Saurashtra may get some showers. Gujarat Region may recover from BB-4 for sure. Kutch may see scarcity of rains.

d) NW India and Sindh can get slightly below normal rains, as we do not know if the systems from the Bay reach the region. BB-3 may not reach Rajasthan and Sindh. BB-4 is the hope for some rains and Monsoon in Sindh region.

e) Encouraged by the absence of regular systems from the Bay (that would mean 4/5 Lows), WDs would rule over Pak Punjab and the North Indian Himalayan States. 

f)West coast rainfall could be normal for July. West Coast off shore trough strengthens with BB-3 and BB-4 .

g)Pulses from the Bay straying as UACs will keep the Bengal and NE States wet with just about average rains.

June saw an All India rainfall of 92.4 mms ( 167 mms avg)  that was -43%. Thinking in a possibly favourable scenario, rather than creating alarms, 

July,if normal can get 295 mms.. so, we would get (92+ 295) 387 mms by July end.and that would reduce the deficit to  -16%.