Saturday, December 10, 2016

10 DEC 2016 ( EVENING ):

Severe Cyclone Vardah ,"I am in the bay ,getting the power by guzzling moisture ."

Image result for cyclone moisture sucker cartoon
Image result for cactus cartoonPeninsular India ," You suck the moisture and be on cloud nine ,for the time being my weather will be dry,sunny and fine ."

1) With severe Cyclone Vardah in the bay guzzling the moisture , the Indian peninsula has been rendered sunny,dry and lower than normal min temps have been recorded in the peninsular states and parts of central India (MP).
  • Bijapur (Karnataka) has recorded min temp of 7.5 c today morning (10 degrees below normal).
  • Adilabad (Telangana) has recorded min temp of 6 c today morning .
  • Ahmadnagar (Maharashtra) has recorded min temp of 5.6 c today morning.
  • Betul / Umaria (MP) have recorded min temp of 6 c today morning .Yesterday, Damoh had recorded 4.4 c
  • Anantapur (AP) has recorded min temp of 12.7 c today morning .
Coastal regions :
  • Valpoi (Goa) has recorded min temp of 13 c today morning.
  • Chennai AP(Tamilnadu) has recorded min temp of 19.5 c today morning.
  • Palghar AWS (Mumbai region) has recorded min temp of 11.7 c today morning.

2) The dry weather has caused significant swings in day and night temps right upto the coast, with Vengurla (coastal Maharashtra) recording 20 c daily range .
  • Most places in the interior peninsula have recorded daily temp swings of over 20 c , with the semi-arid city of Ahmadnagar (Maharashtra) recording daily temp swing of over 25 c .
Refer the map below

3) As severe Cyclone Vardah will approach the east coast (for prediction refer the post of Rajesh sir below) , the associated cloudiness is expected to increase the min temps of peninsular India in the coming days.

 4) Refer the map below of Maharashtra and surrounding areas (click and enlarge for better viewed on smartphone)

 (Source for Badlapur : Abhijit Modak's private readings)


Thursday, December 08, 2016

Posted Friday 9th Night:

Cyclone "Vardah" latest position is 12.1N and 89.7 E, having moved NW. Estimated sustained winds speed is 45 kts and gusting to 55 kts. Deep convection (heavy rains ) is now seen West and North-West of the circulation centre. Will continued to be steered by the Sub Tropical Ridge, it will track NW.

Latest Expectations: As it enters favourable conditions, it will continue to intensify. But from 11th morning, it will encounter dry air and increasing shear....and hence will stop its intensification and decrease in strength. Winds speed will reduce, and may be around 35 kts on crossing land. Should be crossing land around 15N -16N by 12th December.

Posted Thursday 8th December Night:

#BB-18, let us now call it Cyclone "Vardah", is located at 11.6N and 91.8E. Having an estimated core wind speed of 45 knts, its core pressure is estimated at 995 mb. Very prominent convection ( very heavy precipitation) seen North of the Centre of the system. 

Expected to strengthen further and track NW.

Latest expectation: Expected to hasten a bit now and can hit A.P. coast at around 16N, South of Vizag as early as 11th December.
Will Chennai get the rains ?

Next report on 9th Friday Night.

Friday, December 02, 2016

Posted 6th December Night:

# BB-18 showing rapid movement and development. Convective bands have appeared to the North and East of a well formed Low level circulation. Thus developed into a Depression. Cloud banding steadily becoming prominent. Centre of circulation approximately at 9.2N and 91.5E. 
System will track NW. As per indications today, will track towards North A.P.( Vizag) Coast and may cross the coastline by around 10th evening. Cyclone strength possible. 
Seems it will by-pass Chennai ?

Rainfall in Andaman Islands till now from BB-18 as compiled by Pradeep John.

Dense fog likely in Parts of NCR, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar next 3 mornings.

Posted 5th December Monday:

# BB-18, a Well Marked Low, is currently at 5N and 98E. The system tracks W/NW initially, and soon has a potential to develop in favourable conditions.Currently it has an elongated low level circulation, which will concise as it strengthens.
Seems as of now, will track NW till it reached 87E-90E region. 

The strength and exact location of the WD coming in the North regions on the 10th will depend where and how the WD and its associated upper height tilt is located.
As of now, judging the BB-18 and upper level trough in the North West regions of the sub continent, the effect of WD may be possible in Kashmir and H.P. only and in extreme North Pakistan. 

BB-17 has moved into the East Central Arabian Sea area.

Posted 3rd December Saturday:

# BB-18 is still to form. Slow on the schedule mentioned yesterday, There is an UAC over the expected region (of BB-18 formation). UAC will descend to form a Low on 4th around the location 7N and 92E. 
Observing the parameters, and the steering Sub Tropical Ridge, we (today) see the track, as the system on formation, heading towards the A.P. coast. The conditions favour the formation of a Cyclone on approaching the East Coast of India.

BB-17 has emerged in the Arabian Sea. A Low is seen over the Lakshdweep region.An associated UAC also prevails.

Posted Friday Night (2nd December):

# BB-18 (Low) likely to form on 3rd around location 7N and 92E. Initial study of parameters show track as NW towards A.P. coast. Again, synoptic conditions indicate further strengthening and high possibility of Cyclone formation on reaching coast. At present it seems BB-18 will cross coast after about 5 days.
Follow BB-18 on Vagaries...Rare occasion when Vagaries has announced the possibility of Cyclone formation before system is formed.
Next update: Saturday Night (3rd) at 11 pm IST.

BB-17 is now stationed in interior T.N. as a Low. Upper air trough associated with it is tilting towards South West.

Thursday, December 01, 2016

Chennai got 39.5 mms and Chennai AP measured 35 mms in 24 hrs as on Friday morning.Vagaries estimate was around 50 mms.
Some Thursday Day temps and Friday morning Lows: Adirampatanma saw a high of 21.5c, and a Low of 18.9c.
Karaikal saw a high of 22.6c and a low of 22c.
Kodaikanal saw a high of 13.4c and low was 10.7c.
Many towns in TN saw a cool day at around 23c, with the range between day and night of around 2c.

Posted Thursday Night ...

True to its expectations, BB-17 is crossing into Tamil Nadu on Thursday night as a Depression.
Vagaries has never mentioned a Cyclone from the start of its tracking BB-17 8 days ago. And also clarified yesterday that IMD and International Models are mentioning a Cyclone. 

Chennai received 30 mms on Thursday in 12 hrs ended 5.30 pm. 50 mms were estimated here in 24 hrs.

BB-17 is a Low level Circulation ( Depression) crossing the TN coast tonite. The estimated winds around the circulation is 30 knts. Vertical shear is not favourable for the circulation.
It is not showing any associated deep convection.

Let us start the chase for BB-18 ...Likely to form around the same location as BB-17. 
BB-18 could be more effective for TN...

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Posted Wednesday Night:

BB-17 has been upgraded to Cyclone "Nada" status by IMD and International Weather Models.

As per IMD Bulletin .." The cyclonic storm “Nada” over southwest Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards during past six hours with a speed of about 27 kmph and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 30th November, 2016 near Latitude 9.8ºN and Longitude 84.0ºE over southwest Bay of Bengal, about 550 km southeast of Chennai,"

Moving along the Southern Edge of the Sub Tropical Ridge, this "Cyclone" will track towards the Tamil Nadu coast. 

Please not I have put "Cyclone" into inverted commas.Estimated central Pressure is 1000 mb and estimated core winds at 40 knts, 

Heavy showers expected in Chennai from 1st December, amounting to around 50 mms. Rains will decrease to half the amount on 2nd and substantially decrease thereafter.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Posted Tuesday 29th Night:

BB-17 is now a Depression, estimated location on Tuesday night is at 6.5N and 87.1E. No change in track forecast.
Chennai: Squally weather from 30th, with very windy conditions on 1st, winds gusts upto 45-50 kmph. Thunder showers on 1st December.Around 50 mms of precipitation expected.
Bangalore: Showers on 1st December, with cool day at around 24c, Can expect around 25 mms on 1st.

Mumbai: Mumbai skies will get partly cloudy the next 3 days, Wednesday 30th - Friday 2nd December. 
Days, which are quite hot currently at 34-35c, will see a fall to 31/32c levels. But, no appreciable fall seen in the night temperatures.Maybe a marginal rise in the minimum temperatures from Wednesday night.

Pune: Next 3 days will be partly cloudy to cloudy on Thursday. Substantial drop in day temperatures from the 34/35c levels. But rise in night temperatures, maybe by 5c...minimum rising to around 15c from Wednesday night.