Monday, March 30, 2015

M-5 has precipitated widespread rains in North Pakistan and Northern India. Kashmir has received heavy rains as shown in the post below ( Remember: M-5 was predicted to reach sub continent on 29th March in Vagaries in the post dated 18th March.) 

Rainfall details of Pakistan are given in our Vagaries Pakistan Section

Now, what ? Are the WDs ending with the change of the Month ? No way...M-5 finishes by Month end....And on April 2nd, A-1 moves into the Sub Continent menacingly !!

1st April.: rains in Northern Pakistan, 
But A-1 tightens its grip as on 2nd and 3rd April, almost all of Pakistan from Sindh to Northern regions get rains. In India, Kashmir, HP, plains of Punjab. Haryana and Northern Rajasthan are to receive rains. 
Rains continue in above regions and MP on 4th April.

Parts of Saurashtra get thunder showers on 5th April. Many regions in Sindh get showers on 5th April.

A rainy and wet 1st week for North, NW and Central India. Pakistan too will be wet and raining, initially from Sindh to Northern regions, and then Central and North Pakistan on 3rd April.

Thunder Storms (Nor'westers) continue for another day in Kolkata...then seeing rise in day temperatures to touch 40c by Friday, before violent storms set in again from Saturday.
Vagaries' forecasted thunderstorm on Sunday. A storm hit the city on Monday...some pics from vagarian Santosh..





Rains occurring in Kerala and adjoining hilly region of TN throughout this week from Tuesday 31st to 4th April.

Except for some isolated showers on 31st in Satara and adjoining districts  the weather will be dry in Mahartashtra this week.

Historic March Rains in Kashmir, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 30.03.2015

The W.D. lies over North Pakistan & neighbourhood with a trough aloft in upper & mid tropospheric westerlies, roughly along Longitude 73.0°E and north of Latitude 25.0°N.

in mm (min 40 mm)

Katra - 139
Batote - 124
Govindpura - 121
Jammu - 98
Kukernag - 85
Banihal - 72
Qazigund - 70
Chatha - 69
Bhaderwah - 66
Anantnag - 64
Khudwani - 56
Pahalgam - 58
Baramullah - 53
Srinagar - 51
Malangpura - 50
Rambagh - 47
Zainapora - 42
Gulmarg - 40

Maharashtra gets heavy rainfall, ending 8.30 am on 30.03.2015

The Trough from Arunachal Pradesh to Odisha across Gangetic West Bengal now extends from Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim to odisha with an embedded upper air cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand and Neighbourhood and extends upto 0.9 kms above mean sea level.

in mm (min 15 mm)

Thergaon - 80
Tathwade - 69
Amboli (Junnar) - 44
Amadapur - 35
Chikhli - 32
Joiti - 30
Akole - 30
Otur - 30
Dimbe - 29
Bhosari - 28
Chinchwad - 26
Patan - 25
Dimbhe - 22
Ambegaon - 22
Kasbevani - 21
Anewadi - 20
Pune Lavale - 19
Pune NDA - 18
Varthi - 18
Bela - 18
Bhandara - 18
Khadakwasla - 17
Morshi - 17
Pune Pashan - 16
Akodi - 16
Aaptale - 15
Aamgaon - 15
Khamari - 15
Kondha - 15
Manchar - 15
Bagh Shirpur - 15

 

Himachal gets rains from WD, ending 8.30 am on 30.03.2015

The W.D. lies over North Pakistan & neighbourhood with a trough aloft in upper & mid tropospheric westerlies, roughly along Longitude 73.0°E and north of Latitude 25.0°N.

in mm (min 15 mm)

Manali - 52
Gohar - 41
Seobagh - 38
Bhandal - 36
Kalpa - 35
Sangla - 31
Kumarsain - 30
Kukumsheri - 28
Reckon - 27
Joginder Nagar - 26
Bhuntar - 22
Sundernagar - 21
Bijahi - 21
Hamirpur - 20
Bangana - 20
Bajaura - 19
Tissa - 18
Mehre - 18
Rohru - 17
Kothipura - 16
Kalatop - 16
Manikaran - 16
Dalhousie - 15
Leo - 15

Rain in Kanyakumari for 3rd day, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 30.03.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l lies over Comorin -Maldives area.

in mm (min 5 mm)

Anaikadangu, Kanyakumari - 40
Nagercoil, Kanyakumari - 38
Mambazhathuraiyaru, Kanyakumari - 32
Koliporvilai, Kanyakumari - 32
Thuckalay, Kanyakumari - 27
Kulasekharam, Kanyakumari - 27
Shencottah, Tirunelveli - 26
Tiruchendur, Toothukudi - 17
Srivaikuntam, Toothukudi - 16
Eraniel, Kanyakumari - 14
Adayamadai, Kanyakumari - 13
Killiyoor, Kanyakumari - 13
Suralode, Kanyakumari - 12
Neyoor, Kanyakumari - 8
Mullankivilai, Kanyakumari - 7
Colachel, Kanyakumari - 5
Kurunthancode, Kanyakuamari -  5
Radhapuram, Tirunelveli - 5
Illayangudi, Sivaganga - 5

Sunday, March 29, 2015


Its time for Live update of Maharashtra Rainfall till 10.00 pm on 29.03.2015 from Vagaries Rainman
in mm
Tathwade - 69  Amboli (Junnar) - 43  Dimbe - 29  Chinchwad - 26
Pune Lavale - 19  Pune NDA - 18  Pune Pashan - 18
Ambegaon - 14  Bhimashankar - 10  Sakoli - 9  Nigade - 9  Chilewadi - 8 Bhamaaskedha - 7
Manikodh - 6  Chaskaman - 6  Golegaon - 6  Malewadi - 5  Morshi - 5


The forecasted WD arrives, pouring 37 mms in Srinagar from 08.30 am - 8.30 pm IST on Sunday. The Sunday morning low was 6.2c, while in the day, mercury did not cross 7.6c...Max was 10c below normal

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Sunday's Rain forecasted in Vagaries come on Saturday....
From Pradeep (Vagaries Rainman)...LIVE Rainfall Update - Maharashtra getting good rains
===================
Its time for Live update of Maharashtra Rainfall till 10.00 pm on 28.03.2015 from Vagaries Rainman
in
Nagewadi - 46  Kumbhi - 34  Padsali - 34  Patherpunj - 23  Andhra - 22  Ranjani - 20  Dawadi - 19
Moleshwari - 19  Khamgaon - 18  Temghar - 16  Khumberi - 12  Poladapur - 8
Pratapgad - 7  Chinchwad - 7  Khandala - 6  Bhalwadi - 6  Waki - 6  Walvan - 6  Bhimashankar - 6  Bamnoli - 5  Vaibhavadi - 5  Tathwade - 5  Navaja - 5  Dhombhalkavadi - 5  Alandi - 5  Nasik - 5

Saturday Rains in Western Maharashtra...Matheran and Mahableshwar receive rains Saturday evening..
Pic of Rainfall over Matheran on Saturday evening sent by Abhijit...



and rain in Badlapur 



Waqas from Pakistan reports of Currently strong gale at Gujrat (Pakistan) with huge thunder lightning and moderate rains...
Raining in much of upper pak ...
These pics from Waqas' friend Hassan from Rawalpindi...



Answer to shridhar's Comment

Shridhar.: Initially, let us see that the ToI report on the hailstorms refers to last years events. they are referring to 2014, and say that might be the same for 2015.

But, analysing we see that this year, the ElNino event is not yet established. the parameters for the event have yet to form and may take another 30-45 days to establish an El Nino, if at all.
The map above provides NASA’s view of the conditions. It shows the ten-day average of sea surface height (centered on March 13, 2015) in the Pacific Ocean. It is based on data collected by the Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2satellite and analyzed by scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

An again, why have previous El Nino years not produced such violent hailstorms ?
I do not see any positive or definite link.....

A recent paper from National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, clarifies this to some extent. An excerpt....
Paper by
Tropical cyclones over north Indian Ocean during  El‐Niño  Modoki years
K.G. Sumesh and M.R. Ramesh Kumar
Physical Oceanography Division
National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa 403004


"The Air‐Sea interaction processes such as El‐Niño and El‐Niño modoki events have significant impacts on the
tropical cyclones over NIO. We have observed that the frequency of tropical cyclones are more (less) over
Arabian Sea (Bay of Bengal) during the El‐Niño Modoki years compared to the  El‐Niño years.  Our present
study suggests that concurrent occurring PIOD with ElNino Modoki events can significantly alter
cyclogenesis  parameters over the Arabian Sea as compared to a pure ElNino Modoki year .The convective
phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation also plays a significant role in the cyclogenesis over the north
Indian Ocean. Our present study suggests that the cyclogenesis formation over the north Indian Ocean is a
complex phenomena, as it influenced  by several coupled ocean atmospheric phenomena such as ElNino,
ElNino Modki, Indian Ocean Dipole and Madden Julian Oscillation."


Rains are back in Kashmir, ending 8.30 am on 29.03.2014

Western Disturbance (W.D) as a trough aloft in upper & mid tropospheric westerlies, runs roughly along Longitude 66.0°E and north of Latitude 23.0°N. Under the influence of WD, an induced low pressure area has formed over central parts of Pakistan & adjoining West Rajasthan with associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 0.9 km above mean sea level.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Kupwara 58
Gulmarg - 52
Baramullah - 51
Pahalgam - 47
Srinagar IAF - 45
Srinagar - 44
Rambagh - 44
Katra - 35
MAlangapura - 32
Zainapora - 27
Banihal - 25
Quazigund - 22
Anatnag - 21
Kulgam - 21
Kukernag - 21
Batote - 14
Jammu - 13
Govindapura - 11

Bordoichila pounds Assam for 2nd day, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 28.03.2015

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand & adjoining Bihar now seen as a trough from East Bihar to South Chattisgarh and extends up to 1.5 km above mean sea level.

in mm

Dhubri - 65
Kajalgaon - 39
Chamata - 38
Goalpara - 36
Guwahati AP - 30
Dudhnoi - 26
Baihata Chariali - 24
Nalbari - 19
Rangia - 19
Gossaigaon - 18 
Mushalpuar - 16
Jorhat - 16
Borkhetri - 16
Srijangram - 16
Raha - 14
Patharughat - 12
Dibrugarh AP - 11
Barepta - 11
Naharkatia
Kokrajhar - 9 
Golghat - 8
Laharighat - 7
Marghertia - 7
Dibrugarh - 7
Kakopather - 5
Udalguri - 5
Tamalpur - 5
Nazira - 5
Bakojan - 5
 

Thursday, March 26, 2015

Posted Thursday evening for the Weekend 27th - 29th March..

Mild wet spell again for North Interior Konkan on Sunday......Showers in Interiors of Konkan and Goa on Sunday. Interior regions in North Konkan like Pen, Roha and Kalyan can get showers on Sunday evening. 
Showers likely in Nasik, Aurangabad and Akola Districts on Sunday evening.

Saurashtra regions get some scattered showers on Sunday.
Surat will be around 39/40c this weekend. Cloudy Sunday.

WD announces arrival over Northern Sub Continent on Sunday 29th March...Thunderstorms  with hail would occur at some places over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh &
Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and North Rajasthan.

Mithi, Turbat and Chorre in Pakistan are likely to be around 42/43c next 2 days (Friday/Saturday). Karachi will be hot on frday at 40c, only to be lower on Saturday and Sunday by a couple of degrees.

Mumbai: Enough of the "loo" and "inland type heat"...Friday and Saturday: Partly cloudy with day temperatures around 34c. South to SW winds dominate in the evening. Warm nights.
Sunday. Partly cloudy getting cloudy in the day. Light drizzles in parts of city by evening. Warm and stuffy at night.
Eastern Outer Townships of Panvel and Badlapur too can experience light rains on Sunday evening. Warm in the weekend at 35/36c.

Pune: Friday and Saturday will be partly cloudy, mostly high clouds. Thundery developments possible on Friday. Days will be warm/hot at 38/39c.
Sunday will get cloudy by evening. Some showers in may parts of Pune by Sunady evening. Around 3-5 mms in regions where it  rains. Cooler Sunday at 33/34c.
Weekend holiday in Lonavala and Mahableshwar will be pleasant with showers on Sunday evening.

New Delhi: Getting very hot, with the mercury touching 36c this weekend. The NCR will have to wait till Sunday Night/Monday for some releif showers.Next week surely gets better for Delhi, as the days will hover around 32/33c.

Bangalore: Friday and Saturday will be warm/hot at 33/34c. Some thundery developments around vicinity possible on Sunday evening. Sunday may be hot at 35/36c.

Kolkata: After a hot Friday, ( 35c) chances of a thndershwer in some parts on Saturday evening. Sunday will see athundershower cooling down the city to 33c.


Rains are back in South Tamil Nadu, ending 8.30 am on 28.03.2015

An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over south Tamilnadu & adjoining Comorin area and extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level. A trough from this system extend upto south Madhya Maharashtra across Interior Karnataka.

in mm (min  5 mm)

Satankulam, Thoothukudi - 40
Kalakad, Tirunelveli - 30
Kodumudiyar, Tirunelveli - 29
Killiyoor, Kanyakumari - 21
Neyoor, Kanyakumari - 18
Eraniel, Kanyakumari - 13
Nanguneri, Tirunelveli - 13
Tiruchendur, Thoothukudi - 13
Colachel, Kanyakumari  - 11
Thuckalay, Kanykumari - 9
Sri Vaikundam, Thoothukudi - 8
Kurunthancode, Kanyakumari - 7
Radhapuram, Tirunelveli  - 6
Thoothukudi, Thoothukudi - 5
Ambasamudram, Tirunelveli  - 5
Upper Kodayar, Kanaykumari - 5
Thoothukudi Port, Thoothukudi - 5

Kalbaishakhi Season starts in West Bengal and Bordoichila Season starts in Assam, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 27.03.2015

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand & neighbourhood now lies over Jharkhand & adjoining Bihar and extending up to 0.9 km above mean sea level.

in mm

Assam

Golaghat CWC - 70
Golaghat - 60
Dhubri - 53
Miao(ARG) &
Barpeta - 40
Dhollabazar - 24
Kokrajhar - 23
Nalbari - 11
Borkhetri - 10
Baihata Chariali - 6
Kajalgaon - 5
Rangia - 5
Margherita - 5

West Bengal

Pedong ­ - 62
CoochBehar - 49
Toofanganj - 34
Alipurduar ­ 34
Chopra - 26
Jalpaiguri - 16
Malbazar - 11
Kalimpong Agro - 5

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Mumbai Santa Cruz records 40.8c on Wednesday, 25th March 2015. Not the hottest ever for March though, the Hottest March was on 28th in 1956, when the Suburbs saw 41.7c.

The highest ever for Santacruz was 42.2c in April 1952 (See Records for Colaba and other records here) .

Abhijit sends this:
Some max temp below from the region for today dated 25-03-2015 :
Thane IMD AWS 42.8°C so had 2nd consecutive day with 40+ temp !!
Palghar 42.5°C
Karjat 42.4°C so had 5th consecutive day with 40+ temp !!
Thane(अमेय स्वार measured) 41.9°C
Badlapur 41.8°C so had 2nd consecutive day with 40+ temp !!
Kanjurmarg(Mumbai) 41.5°C
BKC(Mumbai) 41.3°C
Santacruz IMD official (Mumbai) 40.8°C
Borivali(Mumbai) 40.0°C
Mahape(Navi Mumbai) 39.7°C
Vagaries(Mumbai) 38.0°C
Murud 37.9°C

Updates on Weather and Details wil be published on Thursday..Author was away.
With vagarian Atul Naik at IMD Panaji...


Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Day of the 40s in Gujarat...21st March 2015:
Maximum Temperature today 21st March 2015
Surendranagar 40.3 C 
Bhuj 40.2 C 
Mahuva 40.2 C
Vadodara & Gandhinagar 40.0 C.

Maharashtra:
Pune touched 37.1c as expected, and Mumbai was 35.3c, while Aurangabad recorded 36.4c.
Hottest in Maharashtra was Solapur recording a scorching 39.8c.

Bangalore was 34.4c, while Hyderabad was the forecasted 37.6c.

Chorr in Pakistan reached 40.2c on Saturday 21st, and Karachi was 34.5c.

Cuddapah touches 40c on 19th March...!

Special Information.. Some city temp anomalies of previous 30 days (Mid Feb - Mid Mar)....See Below
Outlook till Weekend ( For India & Pakistan)...with City forecasts  ...

Posted Wednesday 18th Night 11 pm IST:

Next few days we see dry weather prevailing in the Indian Sub Continent. Day temperatures start heating up, and will tend to range between 37-39c in the pink shaded regions.. 



The heating trend will start from Thursday 19th in Eastern Vidarbh and adjoining regions of Telengana. Initila heating also starts in Parts of North Gujarat and Saurashtra. 

The rains start in Balochistan and parts of Central Sindh (West) on 21st March. Instability is created on the region as lower level Easterlies cause a wind shear due to upper level 
Westerlies.(First mentioned in posting of 12th March on this blog).
On 23rd, we see M-4 moving into North Pakistan. 24th, and it gathers over North Pakistan and moves into Kashmir. And 25th/26th....gathers enough strength to precipitate good 
amounts in North and NW India...and Central Sindh and Rajasthan... more of that later.
M-5 on 29th ...!!

Forecast till Sunday 22nd March.

Mumbai: Almost clear, with some high clouds next few days. Days will be around 36/37c till Sunday. Evening North winds will result in pleasant minimum temperatures till Friday. 

Subsequently, we see the humidity and night temperatures rising marginally. 

Pune: Slight clouds. The days will be around 35c till Friday, and weekend we see days getting hotter to 37/38c.

Aurangabad: Almost clear skies and warm. Days around 35c, but getting to 36c by Sunday.

Delhi NCR: Almost clear, and warming  trend. Maximum days temperatures to cross 30c from Friday 20th. Next spell of rains around 24th/25th. 

Kolkata: Warm, getting hot by the weekend. Currently around 33c, but gets hotter by weekend. Would expect the day to touch 36 or 37c by Sunday.

Goa: Will be sunny and warm. This weekend, the day may touch 35/36c, which would be normally high for Goa.

Bangalore: Warm and clear. Days around 35c, maybe rising to 36c on Sunday.

Karachi: Getting steadily warm. Risng from 33c on Friday to reach 37c by Sunday.

Hyderabad (Sindh): Also getting warmer. Rising from 36c on Friday to reach 39c by sunday.

Gujrat (Pakistan): Partly cloudy skies. Days pleasant at 25c, but rising by the weekend. Likely to touch 30c by Sunday.

Some Cities...how the temps were last 1 month (from mid Feb - mid Mar)