Vagaries will not be updated next few days as I will be travelling with very limited time and facility to write..next Update on Saturday 7th December...

NEM Page and Mumbai Page Updated on Monday Night...

India’s First Mars Probe ‘MOM’ Blasts Free of Earth Joining MAVEN in  Race to Red Planet

Race to Red Planet

Trans Mars Injection (TMI), carried out on Dec 01, 2013 at 00:49 hrs (IST) has moved the spacecraft in the Mars Transfer Trajectory (MTT). With TMI the Earth orbiting phase of the spacecraft ended and the spacecraft is now on a course to encounter Mars after a journey of about 10 months around the Sun. Credit: ISRO

India’s Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) swings around Earth on its final orbit and breaks free of the Home Planet following final engine burn on Dec. 1 placing her on Mars Transfer Trajectory.

The Trans Mars Insertion (TMI) firing propelled India’s Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) away from Earth forever and placed the spacecraft on course for a rendezvous with the Red Planet on September 24, 2014 – where it will study the atmosphere and sniff for signals of methane.


From CAPE CANAVERAL, FL – India’s first ever Mars probe ‘MOM’ successfully fired its main engine today (Dec. 1), blasting the craft free of the Earth’s sphere of influence forever to begin her nearly yearlong momentous voyage to the Red Planet.



MAVEN thunders to Space on Journey to Study Red Planet’s Watery History and Potential for Life
 
KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FL – NASA’s Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) space probe thundered to space today (Nov. 18) following a flawless blastoff from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station’s Space Launch Complex 41 at 1:28 p.m. EST atop a powerful Atlas V rocket.
It will take the spacecraft 10 months to reach the Red Planet, with arrival scheduled for Sept. 22, 2014.

MAVEN will answer key questions about the evolution of Mars, its geology and the potential for the evolution of life.


Similar Goals:

Both MAVEN and MOM’s goal is to study the Martian atmosphere, unlock the mysteries of its current atmosphere and determine how, why and when the atmosphere and liquid water was lost – and how this transformed Mars climate into its cold, desiccated state of today.

India’s MOM – ‘Mangalyaan’ mission is expected to continue gathering measurements at the Red Planet for at least six months and hopefully much longer.

MAVEN could operate for a decade or longer and is also crucial for relaying images and data collected by NASA’s current and upcoming surface rovers and landers.

Although they were developed independently and have different suites of scientific instruments, the MAVEN and MOM science teams will “work together” to unlock the secrets of Mars atmosphere and climate history, MAVEN’s top scientist told Universe Today.

“We have had some discussions with their science team, and there are some overlapping objectives,” Bruce Jakosky told me. Jakosky is MAVEN’s principal Investigator from the University of Colorado at Boulder.

“At the point where we [MAVEN and MOM] are both in orbit collecting data we do plan to collaborate and work together with the data jointly,” Jakosky said.

Posted on Friday 29th Night:

Overall: 
Rains increasing from the TN coast thru into the interior from Saturday onwards. Rain spells will continue thru the next week as an easterly trough sets in with a few embedded UACs. This will culminate as a depression forms in the Bay on the 4th, and approaches the TN coast around the 6/7th of December.

A upper air trough runs east -west along Central Mah. Winds from an off shore trough will inte act. Light rain in South Maharashtra on Saturday, and gradulally increasing as rain moves into Madhya Maharashtra from Goa and South Konkan from Sunday.Heavy rains in S.Konkan and Goa on Monday and Tuesday. 
So winter gone for a toss in Maharshtra next few days.

Temperatures do not see a fall in Gujarat also this coming week.

Weekend Forecast for Some Cities: Saturday 30th November and Sunday 1st December..
Mumbai: 
Saturday and Sunday: Warm with East winds blowing. Result will be dry feel with less "heat feel" in spite of day temperatures at 34c. Nights will be around 19/20c.
Monday will be partly cloudy and warm. But night temperatures will increase by 2/3c. Some thunder clouds development in the eastern sky.
Outer townships in the east will be cloudy by afternoon and evening on Monday. Thunder clouds (Cb clouds) showing up late Monday afternoon.

Pune: 
Saturday and Sunday will be partly cloudy, with nights around 18/19c, and days will be at 30/31c.
Monday will be partly cloudy, with thunder clouds showing up by late afternoon. Shower possible in some parts of city on Monday evening. (5-10 mms).

Chennai: The road is now open ! A series of rain spells will keep Chennai wet and rainy thru the next 8 days.
Saturday will be cloudy with a few spells of rain, around 10 mms.
Sunday and Monday see an increase in rain intensity and frequency of showers. Rain amounts would be an average of about 10-15 mms on Sunday increasing to 20-25 mms on Monday. A few heavy showers in some areas.

Bangalore will be cloudy on Saturday, with a shower on Sunday evening. Also chance of a thunder shower on Monday evening in some areas. The temperature range will be between 27-19c on Saturday and Sunday, with a cooler day on Monday.

Goa: Seems sunny Goa will be cloudy with light rain this weekend. A thunder shower expected in some regons on Monday.

Delhi NCR: Clear skies. Sunny days, but good NW winds in the day will keep the day below 26c. Nights will drop by a couple of degrees to 9c from Sunday night.

Cyclone Lehar Top 10 Maximum 24 hrs Rainfall in mm updated on Pradeep's Page...

Spectacular first ever image of Earth Taken by Mars Color Camera aboard India’s Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) spacecraft....See Space News Page.

As usual, we have got the life cycle video of "Lehar" from Santosh Subramanian....see here.

BB-20 : Estimated crossing time worked out by several international models was around 1600 hrs IST, on 28th Thursday...just South of Machillipatnum. Winds approx at 30 knts...

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Posted @ 11.30 pm IST


Lehar now a TS, located at 15.3N and 83.8E, has depleted in strength as forcasted here after crossing the 85E line. Winds at 55 knts, it is at T 3.8 and likely to weaken more . Likely to cross the North AP coast between Kakinada and Vizag, by Thursday evening.( Probably between 6pm -8 pm)....Rains expected in East Godavri District and Vizag.

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Wednesday @ 8.30 pm IST:

Lehar crosses 85E, and hence has started weakening..Back to 55 knts and out of Cat 1 stage...also now tracking NW and crossed the 15N latitude at 15N ,84.2E....dry air has crept into the centre, choking the cyclone.....

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Tuesday Night @11.30 pm IST:

Lehar tracks NW from last posting and is located at 13.3N and 87.8E. In spite of weaker shear and stable convergence, strength remains constant at T4.0, with core winds estimated at 65-70 knts and pressure 984 mbar. 

As mentioned earlier, it will  track WNW or NW, and encounter a dry flow on coming to the 85E position. After that, we would see the hampering of further strengthening, or even weakening to some extent. Even the waters get cooler nearer the coast.

Expected to cross North Andhra coast by 28th noon. So, Vagaries maintains the slight NNW turn on approaching coastline.

On reaching land, will track NW and weaken. A trough will guide the system in the NW, but weaken it rapidly. 
The "gateway" is then open for the much publicised Easterly Wave to take over. The shape of things to come for Chennai.

Post Lehar rainfall would be restricted to Southern most Odisha, South Chattisgarh and adjoining MP and Vidarbh. Nagpur may be cloudy and light showers in vicinity on 30th November.

Some regions of Western Maharashtra got the thunder showers popping up on Tuesday 26th. Outer township of Mumbai (Eastern) , Badlapur, had very heavy thunder storms on Tuesday night, and surrounding towns of Dombivali, Karjat and Kalyan had light rains.
Mahableshwar had showers in the evening, measuring 8 mms.

Interior townships around Mumbai in the East can see thunder clouds "poping up" in isolated pockets again on Wednesday 27th. Possibly, a thunder cloud can drift over Northern Mumbai townships.
On Wednesday, Pune or the ghat regions can also see the thunder storm in patches. 

Thursday onwards will be dry...forecast for the weekend ( Mumbai) will be put up on Thursday.

The temperatures in the Northern region of the sub continent have risen, and night temperatures are upto 4/5c above normal. I think the nights will drop back to normal levels from Friday night. Would remain around normal levels till 3rd/4th December.

Delhi NCR which has seen temperatures rise, would fall to normal levels from Friday. Days will remain warmer  (26/27c) for a few more days.

 Posted @ 6 pm IST: a Brief Note>>

Sub Tropical Ridge Western End shows a slight shifting towards the Indian Coast ( i.e.Shifting West). This would enable Lehar to maintain a NW track for the next 24/36 hrs.

The Very Severe Cyclone has maintained its strength at T4.0 since 07 PM IST till 17.30 pm IST..and winds estimated at 65 knts. Pressure estimate 985 mbar.

Currently the core centre, located at 12.9N and 89E, is moving along the Southern Periphery of the Ridge. 
A Sat Image showing the central core and upper winds has been shown here to gauge the Ridge as well as the fluctuating central core.

Lehar will now encounter drier air as it tracks towards the NW. The drier air is encircling the cyclone from the North-West and SW.

Next General Update on vagaries late tonite at 11.30 pm IST

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Posted Tuesday 12.30 pm IST..A Brief Report.Is Lehar getting choked ? We may have to forget Cat3, and even Cat 2 may be difficult if drier air and cooler SST invades !

Dry air, or air with low precipitable water content is surrounding Lehar from the West. Its wrapping around from the South tendency seems to be forming....may result in slackening  of strengthening, or even falling a notch lower. Shall observe the next 6 hrs...next brief report here @ 6 pm IST
www.vagaries.in

Posted Monday Night @ 9 pm IST:

Severe Cyclone Lehar...Wind speeds 65 knts, core pressure 986 mb and Cat 1. at 12.6N and 90.6E
The cloud mass noticed earlier has now merged with the central cloud mass, and an enlarged clouding is seen in the Eastern semi circle.

The cyclone will now track WNW, where the shear tendencies are showing decreasing trends. Alongwith the warm waters, we will see the cyclone strengthen to Cat 2. Later, on its track, the system encounters dry air. Hence, the strengthening faces resistance. 


The jet stream parameter and high pressure ridge will force the system to turn NW or even NNW later and cross North AP coast by the 28th. 

Rainfall was reported from Several cities of Maharshtra. Aurangabad received 87 mms till 8.30 am Monday. Rahuri measured 40 mms, Jalna 17 mms, Mumbai colaba saw 6.4 mms and many places in Mumbai had traces.Ratnagiri 6 mms and Alibag 3 mms.

Posted Monday @ 2.00 pm:
Severe Cyclone Lehar is now located at 12N and 91E. Moving at 15 knts/hour. It is now seen to have another distinct cloud mass north of the main cloud mass. The centre estimated at 989 mb is located in the main mass of cloud.Winds around the centre are estimated at 55 knts, Cat 1

Shear tendency is showing a decrease to the west, hence intensification to next stage possible.
May reach VSC or Cat 2.in the next 24 hrs. Can strengthen more to Cat 3 after 36/48hrs, but will weaken to Cat 2 on land fall.

The system may move NW and then turn NNW as it nears the AP coast...

Next Update on here at 9 pm IST

Posted Sunday 24th Nov Evening:

A hat-trick of Cyclones from the Bay! Phailin, Helen and Lehar..all three coming within almost a little more than a month. 

The Current cyclone ,Lehar, At 10.9N and far from the Indian mainland coast at 93.5E, it is about to cross the Andaman Islands as a cyclone. Crossing South, Port Blair has measured 24 mms in the 9 hrs till 5.30 pm Sunday.

As on Sunday 24th evening, the cyclone (BB-20) is located at 10.9N and 93.5E. Winds at 45 knts are formed round the centre due to the 996 mb pressure.
Now, as per the parameters and indication today, we see a initial NW movement. The decreasing shear tendency will ensure a further strengthening of the system in the next 24/36 hrs.

Presently in TS status as per the current strength, will jump to Cat1 by Monday. Estimated position by Monday, 12 hrs hence,  around 12N and 92E.

Vagaries estimates the track to take a NW trend now. Off the AP coast, when around East of Vizag, it is estimated that the cyclone will take a North turn and cross the Odisha coast. Judging from present track speed and resistance, it can cross the coast by the 28th evening, as, at the most, Cat 2.

On approaching the land, dry air will force and restrict the further strengthening of the system.
We shall track and monitor the movements for further tracking.

Suggestion and "hope" for Chennaites: An Easterly wave approaching is going to give very good bountiful precipitation to TN from 2nd December thru 4 days...rains from the systems (BB-19/20) have been very low, compared to what can come.. Just hold on, and forget the cyclones....

A sudden downpour on Saturday night poured 108 mms of rain for Bangalore City. The Winter total, tottering at 133 mms, suddenly jumped to 241 mms , now just short by 20 mms of the average. Yelahanka measured 12 cms..
A localsed downpour gave just 23 mms to the Air Port region.

Saturday, Southern Maharashtra got some isolated rains. Nanded measured 32 mms, Latur 10 mms, Parbhani 6 mms and Hingoli 1 mm.

No WDs for the North soon, but Northern Sub Continent region is in for a dry cold spell from early December, as a high pressure dominates the region...foggy days and nights will prevail..

Super Rainfall in many parts of South Tamil Nadu particularly Kanyakumari, Virudhunagar & Tirunelveli dt  as of 24th November>>....see Pradeep's Page

NEM Page Updated

Video of Cyclone Helen compiled by santosh..see here

Fresh Update of Lehar (BB-20) by 7 pm IST Sunday

Next Week (Tuesday 26th), rain expected in Pune and Ghats regions. Mahableshwar will get Showers.

Mumbai:
Sunday 24th: Partly cloudy with warm NE winds. Day temperature around 32c. Evenings NW winds.
Monday 25th: Partly cloudy with ENE winds. Days warmer at 32/33c.
Tuesday 26th/Wednesday 27th: Cloudy and getting mostly cloudy. Rise in night temperatures to 23/24c. 
Thundery developments over the Eastern skies. Eastern outer townships get thunder clouds with light rains.

Pune: Sunday 24 th and Monday 25th will partly clouded with light to medium clouds. Rise in night temperatures to 15/16c.

Tuesday 26th evening can see a thunder shower with cool breeze during rains. 

Mahableshwar holidayers can expect coudy Monday, and cool foggy Tuesday with thunder showers. 

Lonavala can get the evening shower on Tuesday.


BB-20, steaming ahead ! A depression and expected to move NW....track estimation will be put up here on Sunday evening ( 7 pm)...also, 
Chennai will get major rains from an effective Easterly wave from the 2nd of December, more than what it would have got from the systems...more tomorrow.

Posted Friday Morning @11.30 am IST:

As per Vagaries, Severe Cyclone Helen Crosses Land :
As per detailed Sat Imagery and estimate of system centre, as on 05Z/22,  it could be put to conclusion that the centre of the severe cyclone Helen, has crossed the coast of Andhra Pradesh (India) near 16.2N and 81.4E, near the town of Narsapur 16.2N and 81.4E). As the system weakened slightly prior to touching coast, prevailing winds are strong at 55 knts ,and pressure maintained at 990 mb. Absence of high rising clouds prevalent, as cloud top temperatures are lower at centre is -16c.

Very heavy rains now likely on Friday in Central and Northern coastal AP..upto 150-175 mms next 24 hrs. As clouds will spread, Andhra Pradesh will get good precipitation in the interiors ranging from 30-100 mms. Hyderabad will get heavy showers from Friday.

Rains spread to Southern Maharashtra and N.I.Karnataka on Saturday.
Cloud bands will stretch to the NE and cover Odisha and Kolkata.

Another Low forms in the Southern Bay on Friday evening, around the 10N 95E region. Initially, parameters show the system (BB-20) heading WNW towards Southern Andaman Islands.
If the system remains South of 12/13N till the 86E region, there is a chance of it turning WSW (towards Chennai). If it moves above 12/13N, and comes west of 86E, it  would move NW then.

Meanwhile, the WD over UAE/Oman is moving East into Pakistan. Northern and Central Pakistan can get rain from Friday thru Sunday. Heavy rains expected in the North.
Cities in Sindh like Hyderabad, Nawabshah and Sukkar can also expect showers. Karachi will be partly cloudy with light showers expected on Saturday.
WD in India will be restricted to the Northern hilly states.

Dubai received 22 mms last night