Saturday, August 27, 2016

Posted Saturday Night: 
1. BB-10 persists off the AP coast. Rain effect seen in SW and South segment. Expected to cross North AP coast on Sunday as expected.
2. Machillipatnam received heavy rains on Saturday (5 cms).Chennai measured 14 mms till 8.30 pm Saturday.



Mumbai Lakes Position as on 27th August: (With % full )
Modak Sagar 97.7%, Tansa 99.5%,Vihar 97.6%, Tulsi 98.8%, Upper Vaitarna 93.2%, Bhatsa 87.1% and Middle Vaitarna 99.5%. Total Storage 13.35 Mcum...that is 348 days..upto 10th Auguat 2017.

Posted Friday Night:

Much is being talked about the South West Monsoon "failing' or letting us down with the current break Monsoon conditions. I do not apprehend much to this. This breaking conditions were expected, while the rains continued in M.P. and parts of UP and Himachal. Even though the current deficit of the Monsoon in India has become -3%, we have almost another 1 month of good rains to recover the deficit, and there is no need to change the original estimate of +4%. 
Though the normal rains in September are low, if we get heavy showers, amounting to good figures, the deficit can and may be wiped out. 
We see an early BB-10 taking shape and reviving the Monsoon in Northern Peninsula regions soon.

A surprise (and welcome) Low pressure , BB-10, has formed earlier than expected off the North A.P. coast. As the Low pressure tilts upwards towards the upper air (South East wards), a off shore trough from the system runs Southwards along the East Coast.

BB-10 is likely to track North initially and cross the A.P./Odisha coast by Sunday.

As a result, rainfall will occur in heavy falls along the North TN, AP coast, with fairly good rains in Odisha on Saturday.
Indications of BB-10 late tracking W/NW are strong.

An UAC forming over South Rajasthan and adjoining Gujarat region strengthens the core of the seasonal Low in Southern Pakistan/adjoining Rajasthan region, which in turn will increase rainfall along the West coast of India, Southern Rajasthan and North Gujarat, Saurashtra ( got good rains on Friday) and Southern Sindh in Pakistan. 

Mumbai: Frequent showers on Saturday and Sunday, some heavy.Chance of thunder also possible. Basically weekend will be frequented with regular showers, an increase in frequency over last week's performance.

Ahmadabad: Fairly good rainfall on Saturday and more frequent with heavy showers on Sunday. Saturday and Sunday may see accumulated 45-50 mms.

Surat: With the off shore trough strengthening, the Northern point of the trough will see good showers. Surat will get thunder showers on Saturday and Sunday, with cumulative 2 days amounting to around 30-40 mms.

Karachi: Chances of thunder showers on Saturday and Sunday. But, not very heavy, as only heavy showers in some parts are likely to be occurring.

Chennai: Thunder showers, some heavy, will occur this weekend, with around 30 mms of rain accumulating on Saturday and Sunday. 


Monday, August 22, 2016



Posted Monday 22nd August:
Mumbai seeing (almost) dry days. The city has seen only 34 mms and Scruz 23 mms in the last 10 days. That's a very Low figure for peak Monsoon 10 days !

The Monsoon axis having shifted North brought a "break Monsoon" condition to the city (and State). However, 2 systems from the Bay approached the Eastern coast, and the systems tacked through Central India. 
The Western end of the Monsoon Axis remained in the far North, almost over Punjab. Hence this prevented the West coast off shore trough from getting activated. As explained several times, the seasonal Low of the axis must slide South, almost over Kutch to create a proper strong off shore trough along the west coast.

I do not see any dramatic change in the situation. In fact the axis and upper level winds do not seems favourable for meaningful Monsoon revival along Maharashtra Coast next 8 days.
After Wednesday  24th, Axis is "cuddled" in the Himalayan Foothills ! 

Mumbai will be getting warmer, with stuffy nights. Tuesday may see some showers, but thereafter Partly cloudy skies with few passing showers ( 5-7 mms at the most per day). This may be the scene till 30th August.

Maharashtra interior will also see low rainfall till this month end.Days getting hotter.
Gujarat already in the deficit, may get scanty rains after Tuesday.

Sunday, August 21, 2016

Kolkata rain as on Monday morning (24 hrs): DumDum 79 mms and Alipore 64 mms. Within our estimated range.
Some other places in W.Bengal with heavy rains (Sent by Pradeep John):
Panagarh - 197 mm , Bankura - 173 mm , Burdwan - 169 mm , Sriniketan - 131 mm
Nagrakata - 123 mm , Basirhat - 115 mm , Neora - 114 mm , Diana - 112 mm
Sonamukhi - 105 mm , Canning - 102 mm , Malbazar - 95 mm , Purulia - 83 mm
Haldia - 81 mm , Kolkata AP - 79 mm , Darjeeling - 75 mm


Posted Sunday 21st Night:

The Low that has crept in from Myanmar via Bangladesh into West Bengal is now located NW of Kolkata, in Central areas of West Bengal.
System will track W/NW into Bihar and thence into Eastern U.P./adjoining North-East M.P. next 24 hrs.
Can we decipher it as BB-9 ? It has not come from the Bay ? 

Rainfall was reported from West Bengal on Sunday. Kolkata Dum Dum managed 36 mms till 8.30 pm in 12 hrs, Alipore received 29 mms in 12 hrs on Sunday. (We estimated around 70-90 mms in 24 hrs).

BB-8 will linger on in the South Rajasthan region for another 24 hrs. 

We had mentioned the effects of BB-8 in M.P. and Gujarat on Friday and Saturday in our Thursday post: The rainfall was extreme, with some amounts as on Sunday morning (24 hrs) in cms:
MADHYA PRADESH:(above 10 cms)
SAILANA 30,RATLAM-AWS 20, AGAR 18,UJJAIN-AWS 17, GAUTAMPURA 17, JAORA 16, NEEMUCH-AWS 16, VIDISHA-AWS 15
KHACHROD 15, JAWAD 15, TARANA 14, SUSNER 14, SARANGPUR 14, SUVASARA 13, BADNAGAR 13, KHILCHIPUR 13
DEPALPUR 13, BADNAWAR 12, TONKHURD 12, SHAJAPUR-AWS 12, BIAORA 12, NARSINGARH 11, GAROTH 11
SHUJALPUR 11, MANDSAUR-AWS 11, PETLAWAD 10, MAHIDPUR 10. Indore 6 .

Some Rain in East Gujarat region was also mentioned: The amounts in cms:
GUJARAT REGION:
JHALOD 6, FATEPURA 5, CHHOTA UDEPUR 5, LIMKHEDA 5, DAHOD 4, SANJELI 4,DEVGADH BARIA 3
GARBADA 3, MORVA HADAF 3, KAPRADA 3

And adjoining parts of East Rajasthan:(In cms above 10 cms)
EAST RAJASTHAN:
DANPUR 23, ARNOD SR 23, BADESAR SR 23, NIMBAHERA 23, PIPALKHUNT SR 22, BARI-SADRI 22, CHHOTISADRI 21
DHARIABAD 21, PRATAPGARH 18, PIRAWA 17, GANGRAR 16, DUNGLA SR 16, GHATOL 14, DUG 13
JAGPURA SR 13, CHITTORGARH 13, BHUNGRA SR 12, PACHPAHAR SR 11, BANSWARA SR 11, RAMGANJMANDI SR 11.

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Heavy Rains expected in Kolkata on Sunday 21st...between 70-90 mms possible. Windy conditions .

Mumbai:Seeing the Possibility of marginal rainfall increase this weekend, maybe Saturday and Sunday. This is possible as system may retain minimal strength.


Posted Thursday Night:

1. BB-8 located in the SE Uttar Pradesh and adjoining North MP region.This system has weakened, and will weaken further as it tracks West into M.P.
2. Friday and Saturday will see heavy rains, lashing Central M.P. and moving Westwards.BB-8 weakens to a Low pressure by Sunday. Showers in Eastern Gujarat ( Gujarat Region barring Saurashtra) on Sunday. 
3. It is expected to dissipate over the West MP region by Sunday evening.
4. As the system moves west, rains decreasing markedly from Friday evening in East M.P.Markedly subdued rainfall this weekend in entire interior Peninsula, and Eastern States of W Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar.

Bhopal will see rains increasing from Friday evening and raining into Saturday. Bhopal can expect windy conditions and rains > 100 mms from Friday evening - Saturday evening.
Indore sees increasing rains also from Friday Night into Saturday. But lesser intensity as the system weakens.

During the Saturday /Sunday period, the Monsoon axis will be tilted.Its Western end will be in Pak Punjab, and axis will run Southwards into M.P. and Odisha.

Mumbai: A marginal increase in rain showers on Friday. Rain amount about 15 mms. Saturday and Sunday will see around 7-10 mms of rains.
Slight increase in rains on Friday in Interior North Konkan also.

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Posted Tuesday 16th Aug Night:

1. BB-8 ( Depression) has shown very little movement since last report, and is located in North Bay, at 20.5N south of Kolkata. Expected to track W/NW into North Odisha.

2. Wednesday 17th, heavy rains likely in North Odisha, North Chattisgarh and East M.P.( Shahdol). Gangetic West Bengal can expect heavy showers in some regions.Inflow of moist West winds can bring scattered rains to parts of Saurashtra. Interior Peninsula continues to get subdued rains.

3. Thursday 18th, BB-8 strengthens and tracks NW into North Chattisgarh, with strong associated convection in SW and West segments. Heavy rains many regions of East M.P.

Kolkata: Next 2 days will see windy conditions. Sharp showers will be frequent on Wednesday.
Mumbai: Wednesday will be cloudy. Passing showers with chances of a few of them being heavy.

ENSO Status:

1.ENSO-neutral conditions are present.

2.Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are near or below average in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

3.La Niña is slightly favoured to develop during August-October 2016, with chances of stronger La Niña during winter 2016-17.

4.The latest weekly SST
departures are:
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 0.1ºC

5.The most recent ONI value (May-June-July 2016) is 0.2ºC. Down from 0.6 in April-May-June

(El Niño: characterised by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterised by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode,
these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping
3-month seasons).

Monday, August 15, 2016

Posted Monday Night (15th Aug):

1. BB-8 forms in North Bay South of Bangladesh.Tracking West initially to cross Odisha coast by Tuesday Night.

2. Meanwhile, Monsoon axis now in the Northern Parts Passing From Pak Punjab thru U.P. and into BB-8. 
Hence, very Low amounts of rainfall, except in U.P./M.P.region on Monday 15th (Due to an embedded UAC in the axis). 

3. Windy conditions in Delhi NCR on Tuesday (NW winds).

4. Rains persisting in East M.P. and Heavy rains in Odisha from Tuesday evening.

INDIA ..STATE CAPITALS /U.T s ..RAIN IN mms  ( 1 JUN -15 AUG 2016)

  • GOA STATE (HIGHEST : MORMUGAO ..2838 mms)
  • MUMBAI (HIGHEST : VIHAR .. 3300 mms)
  • PASSIGHAT (ARUNACHAL) ..1724 mms