Thursday, July 31, 2014

Posted Thursday Afternoon

BB-5 weakens, but the associated UAC is staioned west of BB-5 , currently over Gujarat/Rajasthan. The westwards trough is tilting west with height.
UAC is expected to persist over Saurashtra and then shift SW by Friday morning.

Mumbai City:

Heavy rains to continue in sporadic "on-off" regularity till late Thursday night in Mumbai city and outer townships. Very gusty winds along the Mumbai sea coast. Decrease in rains on Friday. But still could get some occasional showers on Friday.  
Very heavy falls in the Northern regions. 
Heavy precipitation till Thursday night along North Konkan and South Gujarat coast...and increasing into Saurashtra. Overnight showers in Saurashtra.

Thursday Morning Rains last 24 hrs: The Heavy weights: Lamaj  and Mahableshwar 432 mms, Amboli 300 mms...more from our Vagaries Rainman Section.

Posted Thursday Morning:
Heavy Rains in North Mumbai on Thursday. Scruz records 77 mms in 3 hrs from 08.30 am while Colaba manages 2 mms. Vagaries sees 16 mms.
Heavy rains will commence in South Mumbai post noon and continue with very frequent showers in Mumbai City till Night. 12 hrs reading can cross 150 mms at Scruz and 75 mms at Colaba.

Meanwhile Scruz has recorded the Wettest July ever by gauging up 1469 mms in the month Previously highest was 1456  mms (1965).

Heavy rains likely to commence in South Gujarat coast and pars of Saurashtra on Thursday..

More updates coming..

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Posted Wednesday Evening: 
UAC 2 is over Kutch at 700 hp . Upper air axis trough runs from SE Sindh thru Gujarat to North Odhisha.
MP, Kutch getting heavy rains as on Wednesday Evening. In Pakistan, SE Sindh getting thunder showers.

Gujarat Rains as on Wednesday Morning:
Main Gujarat Region: Kadi 317 mms, Ahamdabad 288 mms ,Sanand 235 mms, Kalol 220 mms, Khambhat 197 mms, Mansa 140 mms, Nadiad 118 mms, Dholera 116 mms, Anklav 109 mms, Gandhinagar 102 mms.
Saurashtra: Barvala 246 mms, Bhavnagar 125 mms, 

South Gujarat: Waghai 290 mms, Kaprada 289 mms ( Season's total in Kaprada 1272 mms: Highest in Gujarat State this Season)., Dharampur 280 mms, Ahwa 237 mms, Valsad 222 mms, Pardi 213 mms, Vapi 181 mms, Vansda 173 mms, Olpad 162 mms, Khergam 149 mms, Jalalpor 140 mms, Navsari 127 mms, Surat City 92 mms, Hansot 90 mms, Ankleshwar 74 mms, Jambuser 77 mms, Bharuch 50 mms, Surat IMD 48 mms.

From Abhijit Modak ..
Mumbai..Scruz 131 mms, Colaba 23 mms and Vagaries 45 mms. Average for Colaba and Scruz 77 mms.vagaries estimate 60-80 mms for Mumbai City.

Heavy Rain lashes around Mumbai region. Water supplying lake got much needed rain :

Some rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today (30-07-2014):

Modak Sagar Overflows..!!
Mumbai water supplying lake rainfall for today in mms :

Bhatsa 210
Tulshi lake(Mumbai) 208
Modak sagar 205 (100% full it is overflowing from morning)
Vaitarna 179
Vihar lake(Mumbai) 177
Middle Vaitarna 170
Tansa 139

Ghat rainfall ending 8.30am today:

Mulshi 378
Lonavala 318
Walvan,Lonavala 247
Mahabaleshwar 155
Koyna 138 

Heavy rain lashes Thane District.. Rain massive in Thane Dist..
Some rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today (30-07-2014):

Barvi Dam(Badlapur) 293
Badlapur mine(private) 290
Badlapur Agri 250
Vikramgadh 235
Murbad 234
Surya dam 233
Ambernath 224
Kalyan 214
Jawhar 185
Bhivandi 165
Ulhasnagar 149
Thane 145
Shahapur 141
Wada 137
Talasari 105
Dahanu 103
Vasai 102
Palghar 46

Monday, July 28, 2014

BB-5 now at sea level over Odisha and pressure at 996 mb. Gradually merging in axis as UAC.
UAC 2 forms over West MP...and moving West as shown in vagaries' map.

Mumbai received 50 ms at Scruz and 18 mms at colaba in the day on Tuesday (against 60-80 mms forecasted for Tuesday day and night). Heavy rains in excess of 100 mms  as forecasted for Wednesday.

Surat got 48 mms in 12 hrs on Tuesday...more is forecasted from Wednesday .> 110 mms.

Nagpur can get heavy showers Tuesday night and earlty Wednesday.

Regions of Pakistan Central areas as shown in vagaries' map get showers on Tuesday.

Valsad had received 260 mms in 24 hrs ended 8.30 am Tuesday and another 153 mms till 5.30 pm Tuesday.
Kaprada in Valsad region got a massive 307 mms in 24 hrs ended Tuesday morning.

Navi Mumbai 67 mms till 8.30 am Tuesday.

See Mumbai Page for Rohit's Updates on Regional Rains...

Posted Monday 28th Night: Latest Mumbai Lake Levels on Mumbai Page

BB-5 currently as a low, will deepen slightly to around 994/996 mb by Tuesday 29th /Wednesday 30th, and track inland as shown in chart. System will survive as a UAC at 700 hpa levels till Thursday.
Another Low forms over the Gujarat/Rajasthan region. This forms mainly as the axis slip southwards. Associated with a strong UAC, the other seasonal low will be capable of precipitating heavy rains in the areas shown. 
Very Heavy rains expected in Kutch.
Very heavy rains amounting to > 110 mms expected in Surat and Bharuch from Tuesday evening.

UAC 2 will move West and effect the Sindh coast on Thursday. 

Mumbai City: Tuesday 29th  and Wednesday 30th  city will see intermittent rains, occasional showers. Heavy showers with prolonged duration, can lead to flooding in some areas.
Rains would amount to about 60-80 mms on Tuesday and 70-90 mms Wednesday.
Summary: Mumbai City:130-170 mms expected next 2 days (Tuesday/Wednesday).
All Northern and Eastern Outer townships can expect very heavy rains in excess of 100 mms next 2 days.
Thursday 31st: After a wet morning, rains decrease in intensity on Thursday. 

Intermittent rains and few heavy showers on Monday in Mumbai...

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Mumbai: With rainfall 24 hrs ended Monday morning at 143 mms for Scruz, 81 mms at Colaba and 86 mms at Vagaries... and intermittent rain on Monday bringing another 70 mms or more, local flooding precaution to be taken

Posted Sunday Night:
BB-5 Persists, and possibly will strengthen at the 700 hp level. Weakening above this level. 
As BB-5 tracks W/NW, it will tilt W/SW with height, and the entire upper trough will attract moisture into the Northern Maharashtra and South Gujarat coast.

Heavy precipitation on Monday along the Northern parts Konkan and upto Anand coast in Gujarat. Morning showers in Surat and North Konkan. Surat can get showers on Monday , and accumulate rains upto 50 mms.
Heavy showers in Vidharbh, Odisha, Telengana and AP.

Regions North of Mumbai likely to get more rains. Intermittent thunder showers in Mumbai with rains getting very heavy at times. Another 50-70 mms possible on Monday 28th, and Mumbai may be within reach of the wettest July ever...!

If Tulsi Lake (supplying to Mumbai) gets over 50 mms on Sunday night, good chances of it overflowing !                                         

click on Picture        

Posted Sunday afternoon: BB-5 Descends to sea level. A surprise surge (its called "sympathy wave or sympathy formation) occurs across the latitude on west coast. This normally occurs when the system crosses land and tracks inwards.
This one is quick....!!

Flash News: A "strip" of Cloud heads for Mumbai. As on 1.30 pm IST, Northern areas have got more rains than South Mumbai. Northern suburbs till 1.30 pm have receieved average 35-40 mms , while South Mumabi has measured 15 mms average.

Friday, July 25, 2014

Keeping watch on Western Pacific Region for tropical development....

Article on Marathwada Weather and Water Facts will appear in Lokmat Times on Monday 28th July...on Current Weather Page

Posted Friday Night:

Saturday 26th :

A UAC formed in the North Bay off the Odisha/Bengal coast at 20N, is expected to persist, and slope SW with height.

Effectively, Gangatic W.Bengal may see heavy showers on Saturday. heavy falls may exceed 70 mms. 
Kolkata can expect cloudy weather and heavy falls on Saturday.

The Monsoon axis runs from Pakistan Punjab thru North Rajasthan thru North MP thru Jharkhand into the UAC.
So, we have isolated showers  along the axis. Nothing unusual or system type. NW and North India and Pakistan may see some showers. But we see nothing meaningful from any system. Showers will be in isolated pockets in Punjab and Haryana regions.
Showers of same type in Pak Punjab also.

West coast trough remains weak. All along West coast rains remain below normal and passing showers bring 20-30 mms.

Rainfall remains subdued in Southern Peninsula and Kerala.
The UAC in the Arabian Sea gets very weak and almost fizzles out by Saturday night. Some showers along the Sindh coast on Satursday.

Sunday 27th.

The UAC in the Bay persists. Rainfall continues in Gangatic West Bengal with possible spill over in adjoining Odisha.
West coast: Same as Saturday.

Sindh Pakistan: Rainfall decreases. North India/Pakistan and NW India: same as Saturday. Isolated showers, medium in some patches.

Saurashtra and Gujarat gets a break from heavy rains...nothing meaningful. Just 1-5 mms in places.

Mumbai: Saturday and Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with sunny periods. Passing showers. Rainfall around 20 mms/day.
Eastern Outer townships get sunny periods with passing showers, some heavy. showers will not be persistent and expected rainfall around 30 mms/day.
Pune: Partly cloudy with light rains in parts of city. Rains increasing from Wednesday next.

Re Published in Detail as required by readers:
Delhi NCR: Thunder shower expected on Sunday evening. Could precipitate 20-30 mms in parts.Thunder showers may spill into Monday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday NCR region, being in the axis path, will get the passing shower in patches . Meaning no system rains.
Punjab may get the slight increase in rains on Tuesday IF the impending WD effect slides down from North Pakistan to Indian Punjab.

Next week..28th - 1st August:

The current UAC in the North Bay will strengthen, and possibly descend to sea level by 29th July. This would effectively number it as BB-5. 
This would form by 29th July off the Odisha coast and track W/NW.
West coast rains pick up after Wednesday. Particularly heavy will be along the Karnataka coast.
Upper sindh and Punjab regions of Pakistan can get precipitation. Rainfall expected in many parts of Sindh and adjoining Punjab on Tuesday and Wednesday. Coastal and Southern Sindh will be almost dry.

As forecast last week, Parts of SE Sindh get showers on Thursday and Friday. Karachi sees mild rains on Friday and Hyderabad 20 mms.Light rains like 3 mms in Nagarparkar and 2.4 mms in Mirpurkhas was measured.

Upper Punjab received very good showers. Islamabad measured 71 mms and Rawalpindi 54 mms in the day today (Friday).
Gujarat (Pakistan) received 14 mms till Friday morning.Temperatures are in the 29-24c range.

The UAC, remant of BB-4, tracked West as expected. Thursday Rains in MP were good, and measured 36 mms at Datia, 19 mms at Deobhog.
As forcasted on Sunday 20th, , Kutch region received heavy showers. On Thursday, Anjar got 81 mms, Gandhdham 65 mms, Bachau 62 mms. 
Also in North and central Gujarat, Kheda 122 mms Bavla got 116 mms, Sanand 90 mms, Danta 88 mms,  Dascroi 63 mms 
Saurashtra lso got some showers: Muli 166 mms, Lakhtar 120 mms, Malia Miana 117 mms, Chuda 112 mms,
In South coastal Gujarat, Bardoli 106 mms and Chorasiya and Palsana 68 mms.
All along expected what ?

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

As mentioned, rains are decreasing East of the system.
System will fade away around the North Gujarat area on Thursday. Rains for a day in North Gujarat and South Saurastra/ Gujarat.
 As the easterly upper winds from the fading system dominate and rush into the North Arabian Sea, another UAC forms on Thursday night in North Central Arabian Sea.
This was mentioned last week.

Mumbai will see a few retreating  showers from the system on Thursday before showing decreasing rains by evening on Friday.

Monday, July 21, 2014

Mawsynaram leads the All India SWM Rainfall Toppers from 01.06.2014 to 15.07.2014

This year SWM Toppers are giving a bleak picture compared to last 4 years race. The stand out performer is Mawsynaram which is leading the 2nd place Cherrapunji by 1000 mm, which is still in deficit. But the rains in Karnataka and Maharashtra have picked up after 15th July. Hence, watchout for the month end toppers. There would be drastic change in the toppers.

min 1500 mm

1. Mawsynaram, Meghayala  - 4450
2. Cherrapunji, Meghalaya - 3514
3. Talacauvery, Karnataka - 2311
4. Panbari, Assam, - 1950
5. Kuttiyadi, Kerala - 1928
6. Hulikal, Karnataka - 1909
7. Pookot, Kerala  - 1825
8. Gokarna, Karnataka - 1817
9. Suralbhi, Karnataka - 1770
10. Yadur, Karnataka - 1746
11. Agumbe, Karnataka - 1724
12. Mastikatte, Karnataka - 1723
13. Nilkund, Karnataka - 1708
14. Kogar, Karnataka - 1704
15. Mani Dam, Karnataka - 1652
16. Kollur, Karnataka - 1650
17. Bhagamandala, Karnataka - 1620
18. Pambla, Kerala - 1582
19. Malvan, Maharashtra - 1530
20. Margao, Goa - 1517
21. William Nagar, Meghlaya - 1502
22. Uloor II, Karnataka ~ 1500
23. Gersoppa, Karnataka ~ 1500
24. Amboli, Maharashtra ~ 1500
25. Rongo, West Bengal ~ 1500
26. Amagaon, Karnataka - 1445 (till 14th)