Friday, May 26, 2017

Posted 26th May morning:

Our expected BB 2 has formed in the Bay. Due to this formation the South West Monsoon has advanced into Sri Lanka ( vagaries' expected date was 27th).
Ratnapura in Sri Lanka received 349 mms.

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Posted 24th Night:

> Monsoon Likely to advance into Kerala on 31st May...

> UAC prevails in SE Bay and West Arabian Sea....

> Mumbai likely to get light rains on Sunday 28th and Monday 29th May (Pre Monsoon)....


Nice encouraging message to me for our Vagaries received from Maximiliano Herrera (Thailand) ....the first part is ref to my correspondence with him for recent  Bilaspur reading...second part is what i refer to as encouraging...

Quote:-" Thanks. It seems it was dismissed , but I will be waiting for more information (also in the case it is dismissed if it was a temporaly problem or the station needs to be fixed or moved).

I see that thanks to your project Vagaries of the weather, many new Indian amateaurs are getting very skilled and they are a useful "tool" in overwatching Indian weather statistics and filling the gaps in the cases IMD might make a mistake or something.
Since you are the pioneer of the Vagaries, I think your contribution has been fundamental.
Now I am receiving many messages from Vagaries members exchanging information and ideas.
A big thank from the Meteorological Community for your relentless work.


My Reply to Him:-

"Thanks a lot for the kind words Max. Weather is a passion, and after starting Vagaries, we have around 400 members from India, Pakistan, Nepal and US. 
I am so happy that youngsters have taken a very keen interest in weather and studying the daily readings. The younger people are very alert, and immediately point out if something is different or out of Normal.
The younger members have become smarter than their teacher :-)
I also thank you Max for your constant support and help in correcting and updating our records. Your contribution to weather record keeping is amazing ! I still remember when, around 7/8 years back we both were tallying city by city records for many Indian Cities. We had our differences in figures, but that was for the good and proper checking.
Thanks for supporting vagaries and its young members (Vagarians as they are called).Wishing a long relationship between Max and Vagaries !

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Posted Tuesday 23rd Night:
A UAC has formed in the South East Bay...
Places above 44c on Tuesday (India):
1Titlagarh 46.5 °C
2Chandrapur 45.2 °C
3Bhawanipatna 45.0 °C
4Nalgonda 45.0 °C
5Ramgundam 45.0 °C
6Bilaspur 44.9 °C
7Bramhapuri 44.9 °C
8Wardha 44.8 °C
9Nagpur Sonegaon 44.7 °C
10Vijayawada / Gannavaram 44.7 °C
11Nizamabad 44.5 °C
12Daltonganj 44.4 °C
13Rentachintala 44.4 °C
14Mahabubnagar 44.2 °C
15Adilabad 44.1 °C
16Angul 44.1 °C
17Kurnool 44.1 °C
18Pbo Raipur 44.1 °C
19Rajnandgaon 44.0 °C

Posted Saturday 20th May Night:

A Low pressure (BB-2) is likely to form in the South East Bay of Bengal ( 10N, 90E) by the 23rd of May. As per the ensuing sea and pressure conditions, BB-2 is likely to strengthen in the next few days. Chances of cyclone development is 25% ( Low). But system as a strengthened force will track NW towards Odisha/North Andhra.

In the meantime, the off shore trough off the Southern region of West Coast of India will get more prominent from the 24th on wards, thereby increasing coastal rains in Kerala and Coastal Karnataka.

Friday, May 19, 2017

East Coast under heat / humid wave ..makes Rajasthan heat feel pale in comparison ( 19 May 2017 )

It's that time of the year again.. Heat/humid wave has gripped east coast (specially Andhra / Tamilnadu) during past 4 days.
It's either extremely hot and drier winds from the west (temps of 47 c)  or supressingly humid breeze from the bay ( heat index over 55 c) .
Nights are also hot and humid with temps above 30 c ( Ongole min 34 .1 c ) .

Machilipatnam was 47 c / 31 c yesterday and 40 c / 32 c today (heat index 54 , even at night heat index was above 40 c )

Bhubaneswar/Visakhapatnam AP ..39 c /29 c yesterday with heat index of 55 c

Gopalpur(by the sea) was 36 c / 28 c yesterday with suppressing humidity ( heat index approaching 55 c )

Chennai AP was 44 c / 30 c yesterday with heat index of over 50 c

Kolkata AP was 39 c / 27 c today with heat index of 47 c

>>Vagarians / readers ..please share more information on the subject 

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Monsoon Watch --4 ...Quantum Analysis

Quantum Analysis is evaluated for the amount of summer monsoon rainfall over Indian monsoon region during June- July....

Forecasting Methods adopted for the Indian Monsoons:

Gowarikar(1989) developed parametric and multiple power regression (MPR) models with 15 predictors for LRF of AISMR, which were later modified in 1991 to include 16 predictor parameters. The parametric model is qualitative and indicates the likelihood of the monsoon rainfall to be excess or deficient.
Thapliyal (1990) evaluated the relative performance of multiple regression, and Navone and Ceccatto (1994) have used 'feed-forward' neural network technique for the prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall with two predictors (500 hPa ridge location and Darwin SLP tendency from January to April).
The results of a recent work by Krishna Kumar (1997) indicate that a single component accounts for about half of the total variance in the predictors

Most of the studies on LRF of Indian monsoon rainfall were based on empirical or statistical techniques till 2010. IITM, Pune has recently implemented the state-of-the-art coupled climate model, the Coupled Forecasting System (CFS) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA. These statistical techniques range from simple correlation analysis to advanced procedures.

Vagaries' View Point:

Vagaries leans on, and believes in the "Gowarikar Method" with 16 parameters. The results of this old but proven method has been successful. For Vagaries' forecast and analysis made in the "Arrival and quantum Monsoon Watch" series, I combine a few of them along with Dynamical models for a personal analysis and estimate.
15 initial parameters from the months March, April and May are used to analysis and forecast the simulation of Indian monsoon rainfall during June to October. These initial conditions were carefully selected  to span the evolution of both the atmosphere and ocean.

We have to take into consideration most of the 15 parameters (Gowarikar Method) before making an assessment, and these have to be analysed one by one. The prominent among the 15 are , ENSO, March temperatures of North India and East Coast, Himalayan Snow cover till March and SOI to name a few.
Of-course, I am not going to take each and every one of the 15 here, but, derive at an estimate on these basis and on the new model developed. I hope readers of vagaries trust that I have tried my best to estimate as accurately as possible.

Calculating the amount of rainfall, region wise, is of utmost importance, as SWM contributes to almost 80% of the annual total rainfall over India.
In this article, Quantum Analysis is evaluated for the amount of summer monsoon rainfall over Indian monsoon region during June and July.

The 500 hpa parameter is of importance in April. The mean latitudinal location of the 500 hPa ridge along 75°E in April over India, first identified by Banerjee (1978), is considered to be one of the most important predictors. The mid-tropospheric anticyclone over southern India migrates from 11.5°N in January to its northern most position of 28.5°N during July.
From October, the ridge starts shifting back southward. A more Northward location indicates better performance of the monsoon and vice versa. It also showed that the negative correlation of the March ridge was more dominant with the monsoon rainfall of the peninsular India, while the positive correlation of the April ridge was more dominant with the monsoon rainfall of Northern India.

ENSO factor in arriving at the rainfall amount is also of importance. The interface is the sea surface: that is where the transfers of water (evaporation/precipitation)
and momentum occur. An accurate coupling of the fast atmosphere to the slow ocean is essential to simulate the ENSO, which in turn can simulate the interannual
variability of Indian monsoon. Unfortunately, getting an accurate, or near to accurate forecast of the ENSO for the next 2 months is difficult, with no guarantee of accuracy or performance surety.

We see neutral ENSO conditions persisting. But, there is a possibility of  Neutral event persisting till August. Now, this would result in normal Monsoon condition from June thru  August.( If no "Break Monsoon" occurs).
After August, a 50-50 chance of a weak El Nino.

We depend also on other parameters.
Normally, Pulses from the Eastern Pacific area, that is S.China sea, would mean depressions and systems originating from the Bay. 'In Situ" systems and systems from the Far east would contribute to the rainfall to the east Coast thru Central India and into Gujarat and even into Sindh (Pakistan). No El-Nino, would mean no stopping  these pulses, and in fact not encourage WDs into coming down south, (more South than normal).
This may persist till  June, and then rapidly the flow of systems should increase from Bay in July.

The performance of Vagaries' Monsoon Watch Quantum Analysis is evaluated for the amount of summer monsoon rainfall over Indian monsoon region during June to SWM withdrawal in 2 phases. (June/July and August/September).

Why in 2 phases ? Because, I believe it is impossible to give actual Quantum forecast now (In May) for sometime in September...that is 120 days ahead !). I am not competent to give a forecast 90 - 120 days in advance, 
so Monsoon forecast will be
1)...For June and July and
2)... August and September ..this is tentative and will be published in 2nd week July.

A) First 15 days of June sees 
i) Monsoon advancing from Kerala thru upto Central India, and into NE States and West Bengal.
ii) Heat ( Normal to above Normal) in Northern India, and Pakistan.
Monsoon advances into Central India and North India between 20th - 30th June.
iii) Monsoon moves into Pakistan around 1st - 12th of July.

B) Mid June to July end, we can see normal rainfall and progress of the SWM in all of  Sub-Continent regions. Neutral conditions in the Pacific Oceans will send a few "pulses" to create "in situ" systems in the Bay, and the first 2 months could see around 3/4 noteworthy systems traversing the Sub continent. WDs will be few, hence, we can expect a few systems from Bay to track towards Central and Northern India, resulting in good rains in the plains of N.India and Northern Pakistan regions..and fairly good above normal rains in Nepal.

Thus, June and July rains should be normal for these months.

This estimate is based absolutely on the situation as it shows and stands today.
Things, if and when they change (drastically) will be posted and Vagaries readers will be kept well informed, of any variation in the forecast.
These are my personal views, and should not be depended upon commercially or otherwise.  They may differ from other models.

Monday, May 15, 2017

South West Monsoon Advances into the Nicobar islands and South Andaman Seas on 14th May 2017... 3 days ahead of the Vagaries' forecast.
Car Nicobar recorded 6.7 cms of rain till 8.30 am Sunday and another 2 cms in the day on Sunday 14th.

Kota Rajasthan recorded a minimum of 33.2c, the warmest night in India this season.

Mumbai will be partly cloudy with very humid conditions....

Delhi will see very hot days on Monday and Tuesday with the mercury touching 43/44c.
Hot days in U.P. with the highest touching 46/48c next 2 days.