Saturday, May 23, 2015

Posted Sunday 24th:

Arabian Sea Branch: South West Monsoon Moves Eastwards into Maldives...under the influence of a trough.


Bay Branch: Monsoon active in Andamans. UAC active in North Andaman.
Monsoon current now pushing North towards Eastern Bangladesh and NE States for early arrival there.

Rains as on 23rd May: Mayabunder 93 mms, Long Islands 33 mms. and on 24th May, Port Blair 119 mms, Long Islands 65 mms.

Massive Rains in Assam, Arunachal and Meghalaya, ending 8.30 am on 24.05.2015

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and neighbourhood now lies over Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and adjoining Eastern parts of Bihar and extends up to 1.5 km asl.

Meghalaya

(min 10 mm)

Cherrapunji RKM - 151
Cherrapunji - 106
Baghmara - 38
Basar -  24
Rongara - 13
Nongostin - 13
Williamnagar - 12

Assam

(min 25 mm)

Panbari - 150
Haflong - 60
Amarpur - 60
Harinagar - 57
Badarpurghat - 51
Mushalpur - 51
Matunga - 50
Dibrugarh AP - 46
Tezpur - 45
Dholai - 44
Silchar - 42
Chenimari - 41
Dhollabazar - 40
Dhemaji - 40
Mathanguri - 40
Moran - 40
Beki-Mathanguri - 40
Tinsukia - 39
Morang - 39
Annapurnaghat - 39
Karimganj - 38
AP Ghat - 38
Rangia - 36
Amraghat - 36
Maranhat - 36
Bahalpur - 32
Dillighat - 32
Naharkatia - 30
Kakopather -29
Naharkatia - 28
Kajigoan - 27
Dhekiajuli - 27
Goalpara - 26
Mazbat - 25
Chouldhowaghat - 25

Arunachal

(min 10 mm)

Arzoo - 126
Passighat - 89
Etalin - 85
Passighat - 82
Khupa - 82
Tezu - 48
Yupia - 42
Wakro - 41
Itanagar - 39
Tuting - 38
Bordmusa - 21
Geku - 19
Bhalukpong - 12
Kibithu - 10
Seppa - 10


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Posted Saturday 23rd May (Night)...

Moen jo Daro, Pakistan reaches 50c, Nawabshah saw 49.2c....and Sibbi (Pakistan) records a max of 48c and  a minimum of 35.0c on Saturday Morning...!! That's Hot ! Very Hot and sizzling !!

Hottest in India On Saturday was Vijaywada which measured 47.3c...Machillipatnam 46.9c, Ramagundum 46.8c, Jaisalmer & Nizamabad 46.5c, Varanasi 45.8c....New Delhi Palam 46.2c and S'Jung 44.5c. 
Kota saw a minimum of 32.6c Saturday morning.


Hottest Place in Nepal too crosses high limits on Saturday 23rd, with Dipayal recording 43.2c and Nepalgunj AP 42.2c.

Heat expected on Sunday 24th map below:



Friday, Kolkata Maximum temperature 37.7c, and Humidity  during Max temp was 60%..thus showing a Heat and Discomfort Index of 55c  !!This could lead to Heat stroke if exposed outside..
Sunday or Monday, Kolkata may see the temp touching 39/40c ...with Heat index possibly going upto 59c...Due care MUST be taken.

Friday, May 22, 2015

Monsoon Watch 6...22nd May 2015:

What we see here are the cloud formation in Mid Arabian Seas...This formation is explained in the last few Monsoon Watch Series articles.


(Refresh from MW-5: "Now, this difference with the Central Arabian Sea plays a key role in cloud formations off the Western Coastline of India in the Central Arabian Seas. The SST along the Somali coast should rapidly fall to around 18/20c in the next 10 days.")

Now, as we see the cloud mass forming, and precipitating rains, we see the west winds picking up. Off the Maldives coast, the winds are gaining strength. 

The main Gan Island in the Maldives has recorded 40 mms rains yesterday, Hanimadu saw 39 mms today.
Monsoon is expected to hit the Maldives in the next 24-36 hrs (by 24th May)....Rest of Monsoon  progress could also be as estimated, by vagaries.. 26th in Sri Lanka, 3rd June in Kerala...
Monsoon progress map ( Right side of Blog) is updated regularly.

The winds remain W/SW South of Sri Lanka and are SW at around 30 knts in the Andaman region.

Remember, we mentioned that the Somali Current forces the Seas on the Somali Coast waters to cool down , and the SW winds rushing into the warmer Arabian Seas form thick clouds in the mid seas...This is precisely what we need.

Also on stream as per last MW 5, we see the core pressure of the seasonal Low dropping to 998 mb today...a significant step which was anticipated in the last MW 5.

Nawabshah and Sibbi in Pakistan recorded 49.0c on Friday. Highest in India was 47.6c at Chandrapur (Vidharbh).

-------------------------End of Article----------------------------

Thursday, May 21, 2015

 Posted Friday Morning:
Minimum Temperatures rose in Mumbai , and are nearing the rare 30c mark...Friday morning saw a low of 29.6c in Colaba and 28.7c in Santa Cruz. The highest ever minimum (As per Vagaries records, though officially no records kept by IMD) was 30.1c at Colaba on 9th May 1991, and 30.2c at Sanatacruz on 10th June 2014 ( http://vagariesmum.blogspot.in/).

Atul informs us from Goa: "
May 22, 2015 - Panaji Goa records 28.7C minimum temperature (2C above normal), which is a recent record for many months. In 2014 the highest minimum recorded in May was 27.9C.

As mentioned,Heat Wave spreads to Telengana, with Hyderabad recording a high of 44.3c...Just a whisker away from the all time May record of 44.5c recorded on 12th May 2010. Highest for any month is 45.5c recorded on 2nd June 1966.
 

Hotspot Ramagundam saw a sizzling high of 46.8c on Thursday 21st, again, missing the all time high record ( For any month) of 47.3c recorded on 24th May 1984.

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Posted 21st May Thursday:
Larkana in Pakistan touches Max of 49.5c and minimum of 30.5c !! 

Moenjo daro saw 48c and Nawabshah 47.5c...the Hottest places !
On 19th May, Sibbi recorded a minimum of 34.5c..the highest minimum this year.
Heat continues in Vidharbh with Wardha again touching 47.5c. Nagpur was 47.0c.Chandrapur 46.2c. 
In MP, Khajuraho saw 45.4c.
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Posted on Wednesday 20th May:
As mentioned yesterday, heat Wave prevailed in Vidharbha, with the highest temperature in India on Wednesday 20th May, being 47.4c at Chandrapur (Vidarbha). Wardha was 47.2c and nagpur 47.0c
Now, 21st and 22nd , Heat Wave is likely to spread to Telangana, and will prevail in Vidharbha and West MP.
Hottest in Pakistan on Wednesday 20th: Dadu, Turbat, Sibbi 47°C.

Mumbai estimate till Sunday 24th: Partly cloudy,Hot and sultry. Days in Mumbai will be around 35c, with humid conditions making the real feel temperatures around 41c in the afternoon ! 
A light drizzle in the weekend may add to sultry conditions..Nights will be very warm at 29c, maybe touching the rare 30c mark this weekend.
Hot and humid for Outer Townships also, no major change.

Goa will be sultry and partly cloudy. Light drizzles may occur during the weekend, bringing more humid conditions.osted on Wednesday 21st May..

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

MW-5...2015.....20th May 2015

South West Monsoon has advanced further into North Andaman...

1. Cross Equatorial Flow has picked up considerably in the Bay, and is touching 35 knts. In fact it is showing an independent trend, disassociating itself from the Arabia Sea branch. Winds around 35-40 knts (30 last year) are seen gushing Northwards off the Somali Coast.




But the Arabian Sea branch is dis organised and shows no definite formations from the Somali coast to the West Indian coastline. 
The Eastern branch of the Arabian Sea winds will gain speed, and SW winds will touch 30-35 knts near Maldives and Sri Lanka by the 23rd of May....Heralding the South West Monsoon in the region of Maldives by the 24th. Sri Lanka at this rate should get SWM by 26th May....and Kerala by 3rd June.

2.SST reproduced here to show the Sea temperature falling  along the Somali coast. It is presently around 23c (23)c. { Brackets indicate last year's readings}.




Now, this difference with the Central Arabian Sea plays a key role in cloud formations off the Western Coastline of India in the Central Arabian Seas. The SST along the Somali coast should rapidly fall to around 18/20c in the next 10 days.

But the present fall is not sufficient to help form Monsoon clouds around the Central Arabian Sea. 
A slight rise is seen in the Bay water's SST to 31c.

3.Seasonal Low...Currently dropping to core pressure 0f 1000 mb....But the strengthening flow from the Somali region will bring very strong gusty winds at 35-40 kmph along the Sindh Coast...windy in Karachi from 22nd/23rd. 
This will enhance the drop in the Seasonal Low, which can go down to fall to 996 mb in 3/4 days by 24th May !

Current Weather:


As mentioned yesterday, heat Wave prevailed in Vidharbha, with the highest temperature in India on Wednesday 20th May, being 47.4c at Chandrapur (Vidarbha). Wardha was 47.2c and nagpur 47.0c
Now, 21st and 22nd , Heat Wave is likely to spread to Telangana, and will prevail in Vidharbha and West MP.
Hottest in Pakistan on Wednesday 20th: Dadu, Turbat, Sibbi 47°C.

Mumbai estimate till Sunday 24th: Partly cloudy,Hot and sultry. Days in Mumbai will be around 35c, with humid conditions making the real feel temperatures around 41c in the afternoon ! 
A light drizzle in the weekend may add to sultry conditions..Nights will be very warm at 29c, maybe touching the rare 30c mark this weekend.
Hot and humid for Outer Townships also, no major change.

Goa will be sultry and partly cloudy. Light drizzles may occur during the weekend, bringing more humid conditions.

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Our Vagaries in Lokmat Daily, Goa..20th May 2015...See Mumbai Page

Marathwada and Vidharbha (Maharashtra) Sizzles on Tuesday 19th May...Heat Wave with temperatures around 46-48c expected in West MP and Vidharbha on 20th and 21st May

Readings of Tuesday 19th :
MARATHWADA 
OSMANABAD       43.1( 3.8)  
AURANGABAD    43.8( 4.3)         29.0( 4.9) 
PARBANI             45.5( 3.7)         28.6( 2.0) 
NANDED              43.2( 1.7) 

VIDARBHA
AKOLA               46.4( 4.3)           30.5
AMRAOTI          45.6( 3.2)            29.2( 1.9) 
BULDHANA       42.0( 3.6)            28.8 
BRAMHAPURI   45.8( 3.7)           28.9( 1.3)
CHANDRAPUR  46.8( 3.8)           26.0(-2.4) 
NAGPUR            46.9( 4.2)           25.9(-2.0)
Washim               44.0                   28.2 
WARDHA            47.5( 4.8)          28.5( 1.1)...Hottest in India and Asia
YEOTMAL           45.6( 3.9)           27.8( 0.4) 

In MP, Khajuraho saw 46.4c, Sagar 46.2c, Guna 45.7c and Bhopal 45.0c.

Hottest in Pakistan on 19th May...Dadu and Turbat and Sibbi...47c.

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Non Stop Rains in Karnataka, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 20.05.2015

An east west shear zone between 1.5 & 3.6 kms a.s.l. extends roughly along Lat 10° N across south Peninsula.

in mm (min 25 mm)

Madikehalli - 80
Kallahalli - 79
Kuduru - 68
Shreenivasapura - 66
Shettihalli - 62
Doddaganjur - 58
Manchanbele - 55
Ramohalli - 54
Jerabandi - 53
Pulgurkote - 50
Bindiganavole - 46
Guddehosuru - 43
Guddehosuru - 43
K.M.Doddi - 40
Yelawala - 39
Bengaluru City - 39
Hulukunte - 38
Ramasagar - 38
Bilikere - 37
Doddakadanur - 34
Tatanahalli - 34
Malavally - 33
Masti - 32
Roonour - 32
Kyasamballi - 32
Nelamangala - 31
Tavarekere - 30
Mudabalu - 30
Magadi - 28
Srinivaspura - 28
Hallimysore - 27
Narasapura - 26
Kikkeri - 26
Maddur - 26
Chikkayalur - 25
Kaiwara - 25
Pandavapura - 25

Its Kanyakumari again to top the charts, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 20.05.2015

The shear zone now runs along Lat.11.0°N between 3.6 & 5.8 km above mean sea level. Many places in Kanykumari have got around 400 mm rainfall in last 4 days.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Kannimar, Kanyakumari - 146
Thiruvattar, Kanyakumari - 144
Suralode, Kanyakumari - 109
Bhoothapandy, Kanyakumari - 84
Thuckalay, Kanyakumari - 77
Mullankivilai, Kanyakumari - 73
Colachel, Kanyakumari - 72
Killiyoor, Kanyakumari - 65
Perunchani, Kanyakumari - 63
Neyoor, Kanyakumari - 59
Upper Kodayar, Kanykumari - 52
Pechiparai, Kanyakumari - 52
Kulasekharam, Kanyakumari - 50
Munchirai, Kanyakumari - 48
Kuzhithurai, Kanyakumari - 45
Eraniel, Kanyakumari - 44
Anaikadangu, Kanyakumari - 40
Lower Kodayar, Kanyakumari - 36
Kodimudiyar, Tirunelveli - 25
Rayakottah, Krishnagiri - 17
Shoolagiri, Krishnagiri - 16
Kamudhi, Ramanathapuram  - 15
Mylaudy, Kanyakumari - 15
Thali, Krishnagiri - 15
Tirupuvanam, Sivaganga - 14
Kanyakumari, Kanyakumari  - 13
Nagercoil, Kanyakumari - 10
Tirunelveli, Tirunelveli - 10
Ramanadhi, Tirunelveli - 10

Kerala continues to get very heavy rains before monsoon, ending 8.30 am on 20.05.2015

The shear zone now runs along Lat.11.0°N between 3.6 & 5.8 km above mean sea level

in mm (min 15 mm)

Kayamkulam Agri - 106
Thenmala - 87
Punalur - 75
Cherthala - 62
Aryankavu - 56
Trivandrum AP - 47
Kollam - 47
Vaikom - 46
Thodupuzha - 46
Varkala - 44
Alappuzha - 44
Peringamala - 42
Nedumangad - 41
Trivandrum - 41
Kayamkulam - 35
Mancompu - 34
Angadippuram - 34
Kozha - 26
Neyyattinkara - 22
Piravom - 19
Neeriyamangalam - 17
Mankara - 17
Haripad - 15

Theni and Virudhunagar get heavy rains, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 19.05.2015

An east west shear zone between 1.5 & 3.6 kms a.s.l. extends roughly along Lat 10° N across south Peninsula.

in mm (min 15 mm)

Veerapandi, Theni - 76
Thiruchuzhi, Virudhunagar - 66
Alangudi, Pudukkottai - 57
Uttamapalayam, Theni - 46
Kallal, Sivaganga - 42
Kanyakumari, Kanyakumari  - 39
Chinnakalar, Coimbatore - 35
Anaikadangu, Kanyakumari - 34
Arimalam, Pudukkottai - 33
Nagercoil, Kanyakumari - 30
Coonoor, Nilgiris - 29
Mambazhathriyaru, Kanyakumari - 28
Chellampatti, Madurai - 27
Karamadai, Coimbatore - 26
Tirupathur, Sivaganga - 25
Kovilankulam, Virudhunagar - 23
Munchirai, Kanyakumari - 23
Mettupalayam, Coimbatore - 22
Coonoor PTO, Nilgiris - 22
Kottar, Kanyakumari - 22
Sedapatti, Madurai - 21
Killiyoor, Kanyakumari - 21
Thanjavur, Thanjavur - 20
Gudalur, Theni - 20
Thuckalay, Kanyakumari - 19
Keeranur, Pudukkottai - 18
Peraiyur, Madurai - 18
Mettupatti, Madurai - 18
Aranmanaipudur, Theni - 18
Sanmuganadhi, Theni - 17
Karaikudi, Sivaganga - 16
Colachel, Kanyakumari - 15
Bhoothapandy, Kanyakumari - 15
Annur, Coimbatore - 15
Illuppur, Pudukkottai - 15
Mylaudy, Kanyakumari - 15
Illayangudi, Sivaganga - 15
Ottapadiram, Toothukudi - 15
Narikudi, Virudhunagar - 15
Sothuparai, Theni - 15
Kannimar, Kanyakumari - 15


Kerala's surplus season conitnues, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 19.05.2015
An east west shear zone between 1.5 & 3.6 kms a.s.l. extends roughly along Lat 10° N across south Peninsula.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Pambla - 98
Neeriyamangalam - 63
Thodupuzha - 46
Myladumpara - 30
Mancompu - 26
Chengannur - 26
Kottayam - 25
Munnar - 25
Mannarkad - 23
Peermade - 22
Ponmudi - 17
Mattanur - 17
Perumbavur - 16
Konni - 15
Idukki - 15
Kannur - 13
Kuppady- 12
Madupattey - 11
Hosdurg - 10
Kayamkulam - 10
Varkala - 10

Karnataka continues to get its quota without UAC in Lakshadweep, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 19.05.2015
An east west shear zone between 1.5 & 3.6 kms a.s.l. extends roughly along Lat 10° N across south Peninsula.

in mm (min 30 mm)

Kaliaya - 85
Mundwad - 73
Aldur - 68
Belagatta - 60
Sullia - 59
Undiganaalu - 54
Belve - 54
Doddur - 52
Barakanalu - 43
Kokkanur - 43
Bukkambudi - 42
Javagal - 42
Hiremaralihallii - 40
Kottigehara - 40
Venoor - 39
Kandegala - 38
Nonaburu - 37
Puttur - 37
Mudigere - 36
Sakaleshpur - 36
Mudabidri - 36
Huliyur - 35
Ikkanur - 35
Arasikere - 33
Baasuru - 32
Kolaganhalli - 32
Kalasa - 31
Barur - 31
Arehalli - 31
Hirebylu - 30
Harle - 30
Aralasurali - 30
Kalasapura - 30
Eswaragere - 30
Banavara - 30
Hariharapura - 30
Ardi - 30
Dabbaedka - 30
Arkalgud - 30


Sunday, May 17, 2015

MW-4 (Part-2) 2015...Seasonal Quantum Performance of SWM.

Synoptic Situation: 
(1) South West Monsoon advances into South Andamans
(2) Season's first  low pressure area in Arabian Sea Branch formed off Kerala Coast and neighbourhood on 15th  
(3) Rajasthan and Gujarat in India and Sindh and Balochistan in  Pakistan start heating up ..and reach 49c (Pakistan)
(4) Pre-monsoon convective activity increased over central and peninsular India due to presence of wind discontinuity. 

Very Briefly, explaining the Factors considered for Seasonal Forecast:

To take and assess the SWM performance, we refer back to the MW-4 (Part-1). We have to take into consideration most of the 15 parameters (Gowarikar Method) before making an assessment, and these have to be analysed one by one. The prominent among the 15 are , ENSO, March temperatures of North India and East Coast, Himalayan Snow cover till March and SOI to name a few.
Of-course, I am not going to take each and every one of the 15 here, but, derive at an estimate on these basis and on the new model developed. I hope readers of vagaries trust that I have tried my best to estimate as accurately as possible.

Most of the studies on LRF of Indian monsoon rainfall were based on empirical or statistical techniques till 2010. IITM, Pune has recently implemented the state-of-the-art coupled climate model, the Coupled Forecasting System (CFS) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA. These statistical techniques range from simple correlation analysis to advanced procedures.

Vagaries' View Point:

The performance of Vagaries' Monsoon Watch Quantum analysis is evaluated for the amount of summer monsoon rainfall over Indian monsoon region during June to SWM withdrawal in 2 phases. (June/July and August/September). 
Why in 2 phases ? Because, I believe it is impossible to give actual Quantum forecast now (In May) for sometime in September...that is 120 days ahead !). I am not competent to give a forecast 90 - 120 days in advance, so Monsoon forecast will be  1)...For June and July and 2) then August and September ..this phase 2) will be published in 1st week of July.

Repeat: The 500 hpa parameter is of importance in April. The mean latitudinal location of the 500 hpa ridge along 75°E in April over India, first identified by Banerjee (1978), is considered to be one of the most important predictors. The mid-tropospheric anticyclone over southern India migrates from 11.5°N in January to its northernmost position of 28.5°N during July. 
From October, the ridge starts shifting back southward. A more Northward location indicates better performance of the monsoon and vice versa. It also showed that the negative correlation of the March ridge was more dominant with the monsoon rainfall of the peninsular India, while the positive correlation of the April ridge was more dominant with the monsoon rainfall of Northern India.

ENSO factor in arriving at the rainfall amount is also of importance. The interface is the sea surface: that is where the transfers of water (evaporation/precipitation) 
and momentum occur. An accurate coupling of the fast atmosphere to the slow ocean is essential to simulate the ENSO, which in turn can simulate the interannual 
variability of Indian monsoon. Unfortunately, getting an accurate, or near to accurate forecast of the ENSO for the next 2 months is difficult, with no guarantee of accuracy or performance surety.

We see El Nino conditions now. But, there is a possibility of a full El-Nino event occurring as early as July. Now, this would result in "severe" break Monsoon condition in late July or August. That is the last thing we want. But I would not endorse the event as yet. I would give it a 50-50 chance.

Normally, Pulses from the Eastern Pacific area, that is S.China sea, would mean depressions and systems originating from the Bay. 'In Situ" systems and systems from the Far east would contribute to the rainfall to the east Coast thru Central India and into Gujarat and even into Sindh (Pakistan). El-Nino, even a mild one, would sort of restrict these pulses, and in fact encourage WDs into coming down south, more South than normal. 

If we take into account, that the ENSO is today is El Nino and "leaning" towards a stronger El-Nino phase by,say,July, then:

a) Till July, we can see slightly below normal rainfall and progress of the SWM in parts of  Sub-Continent regions. Nino conditions in the Pacific Oceans will send a few "pulses" to create "in situ" systems in the Bay, and the first 2 months will see around 3/4 noteworthy systems traversing the Sub continent. WDs will be few, hence, we can expect a few systems to track towards Central and Northern India, resulting in good rains in the plains of N.India and Northern Pakistan regions..and fairly good above normal rains in Nepal.

During the Northern track of the system, the monsoon trough could be pulled far North into the Himalayas, and possibility of "short "break Monsoon in 3rd week of July or near around that time period.
Break monsoon situations, and winds bringing in moisture from the Bay (diverted to the NW directions) will result in excessive rainfall this season in Nepal, more so the Eastern regions. NE states of India will get continuous feeding from the Bay. (Cherrapunji/Mawsynram seems the likely candidate for the highest SWM rains).


b) June sees heat wave in Northern India, and Pakistan..Temperatures upto 50c, which can touch places in Balochistan and Sindh by late May, will be prevalent in first 15 days of June. Monsoon advances into Central India and North India between 20th - 30th June onwards. Monsoon moves into Pakistan in 2nd week of July.
  
Monsoon Arrival dates Estimate: 


This estimate is based absolutely on the situation as it shows and stands today.  
Things, if and when they change (drastically) will be posted and Vagaries readers will be kept well informed, of any variation in the forecast.  
These are my personal views, and should not be depended upon commercially or otherwise. They may differ from other models.

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