Posted 24th April: ..And Mumbai Heat continues for the 4th day running....for those Interested, See explanation on Mumbai Page

What's in store now for the Sub Continent ?

Now, by the 25th, a weak WD would move into the Northern Parts of the Sub Continent, the Northern most parts.
Rains would be seen in the Extreme North of Pakistan and in the States of Kashmir, Hills of HP and some thunder squalls in the Plains of both the Punjabs. Rains would be precipitating on 24th and 25th.
Most Cities of Punjab ( including Malout) and Haryana will be around 37-39c till Friday.Thunder squalls likely on Thursday/Friday in Punjab.

By the 25th, Heat would have enveloped all of Regions as shown ( Red) in the Vagaries Map.

The LWD in the Southern peninsula, would bring Thunder Showers to S.I. Karnataka and Southern Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
On 24th and 25th, rainfall effected will be Karnataka regions of Hassan, Kodagu and Mysore. Mangalore could get the Thundershower. Adjoinig Kerala would see Thunder Showers.


City Forecast for Wednesday 23rd, Thursday 24th and Friday 25th:

Mumbai:Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will see a hazy sky and hot temperatures. With humidity increasing, the sweaty feeling is going to increase, with the day temperatures around 35c and nights around 26/27c.
Pune: With the rains staying away, the mercury is all prepared to shoot to the 40c mark. Next 3 days will see very hot days at 40/41c and nights warm around 23c.

Goa: Sunny, living up to its reputation. Days warm/hot and humid, at 35c.
Nagpur: Hot and dry, with day temperatures gradually shooting up , and reaching 42/43c by Thursday/friday.

Bangalore: With no rains in the next 4 days, would expect partly cloudy with hot days. Days around 36c, and nights also warm by Bangalore standards around 22c.

Delhi NCR: No rain, but an odd thunder squall on Thursday/Friday. Would say 40c would elude Delhi proper till Saturday. but we may see 40c in the vicinity by Thursday.

Kolkata: We have been reading in vagaries about the heat in the Bengal region. And sure its going to stay next few days..rather its about to be extreme. Would expect Kolkata to ready itself for 43c bu Thursday...but Humidity decreasing.

Pakistan:
Islamabad: Partly cloudy. Warm/hot day, temperatures gradually rising from 31c on Tiesday to touch 34/35c by Friday.

Karachi: Dry and mostly sunny. Gusty west winds on Thursday. Temperatures in the 36c and 26c range.
Larkana and Nawabshah can see a dust storm with light rains. Maximum around 41c.Interior Sindh going up to 42/43c from Thursday.

Now you can get complete All India Daily Rainfall details in Pradeep's Page in Vagaries

---------------------
No more worries about missing rainfall data, the one page information in Vagaries will contain Daily Rainfall, Rainfall Toppers, Norwestor, Cyclone Speeds, Top 24 hr Rainfall, Wettest Spells and Rainfall Records etc

http://www.vagaries.in/p/pradeeps-special-page.html

Monsoon Watch - 2   (20th April 2014) 

(Request see Article on Big Laptop screen as Maps and Charts will be better Understood and have been put up with lot of effort..Thanks)

Further Analysis of the parameters as discussed in MW-1. 

1. Seasonal Low: As the average day/night temperatures in the Central Sub-Continent areas have  not shown warming up recently, the -ve factor from the previous MW (last week) discussion shows some improvement (though still -ve). A-3 and A-4 have predominantly kept the days cooler. 

Northern India in fact was almost 12-15c below normal in the day.Bengal region still remains above normal.( See Saturday Article below)

Marginal Heat waves are seen in the North East and Eastern coast of India now.

Vagaries' Sunday Map of Anomaly Below

Comparison with previous years-. In 2010, the first 45c touched on 10th. April, and on the same day Nagpur was 44c, Delhi 42.8c. Soon on 15 th April 2010,  Nawabshah (Pakistan) soared to 47c, Simla to 28.2c on 16th, Ganganagar, Akola and Hissar to to 46c. 

But, 2011 ,2012 and 2013 were similar to 2014. This year also, we are yet to reach 45c anywhere in the Sub-Continent, as was in 2011, 2012 and 2013. 

Highest till date ( 2014) is 44c in Nawabshah on 12^th April 2014.

Into the 3rd. week of April now, and a prominent heat wave is missing.

The Line of Wind Discontinuity should stabilise around Central India perpendicular down into the Southern Peninsula by mid April. This enhances the speed of the Seasonal Low formation. Normally is required to start taking shape for the monsoon by the second week of April –As on date,  LWD from Central Maharashtra down to Interior Karnataka is forming. Rain/TS have lashed many parts of Central India last 2 days..

In reality, this LWD remains till June, in variable phases, and finally merges with the Monsoon trough (axis)/ITCZ  when the ICTZ moves towards the Sub Continent.

Not much thunderstorm activity in Southern Tibet (though expected to pick up).

Normal April synoptic features :

There is  a high pressure in central Arabian sea and central/north bay which are normal synoptic features seen in April.

But as the second half of summer progresses the high over the bay should collapse (at least by 15^th May)  and the formation of low pressures over the Southern Bay should be in situ..

As the second half of summer progresses (by 15^th May): Lows over MP, Central India, Chotanagpur plateau(Jharkhand) should become less conspicuous because of the strengthening of the seasonal low over NW india.

As on 20th. April 2014, the core pressure in the seasonal Low, in the Thar Desert region is at 1006 mb, though not prominently formed yet. Could hardly be called a “developing” Seasonal Low.

As on 20th. April 2013, the lowest pressure, in the Thar Desert region was at 1002 mb. (2011 was 1006 mb, 2010/2012 was at 1002 mb this time ).As mentioned, it normally should reach a low nadir of 994 mb in June, and with 1008mb in the South Arabian Sea, a perfect gradient is created to attract the south -west winds towards the coast.

Though the current heating is bleak, some time should be given for the heating to peak (till 1^st week of may) , before raising a red flag..

Indicator 1: -ve (last year was also -ve this time of the year)

2. The ENSO:

 Since January, a large volume of warmer-than-average water (known as a downwelling Kelvin wave) has progressed from the western Pacific sub-surface to the central Pacific sub-surface and warmed, eroding the cooler waters in the east.

The latest sea surface temperature anomaly across the NINO3.4 region, in the central Pacific, is +0.3 °C and has shown steady warming since February.

NINO 3.4 is the predominant Region to see for El Nino..For our region.

Nino regions in the Pacific Ocean:

Though currently neutral, all models suggest El Nino conditions through the Indian summer.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.

The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 6 April 2014 is −9.0.

Last year (2013) the 30 day SOI value was +5.1 (neutral).

Last year was neutral.

Indicator: Towards El Nino ( will interfere with the advance/onset of monsoon  ).

3. Last week, the Cross Equatorial winds, which originate from the Southern Indian Ocean as SE winds, and cross the equator to become South-West, were weak.

Normal wind flow in April: 

The winds on crossing the equator break into 2 branches. 1) gushing into the Arabian Sea, and 2) moving into the Bay of Bengal. 

1) Initial forming off the East African Coast, has started from below the equator and the weak SE flow towards Eastern Africa can be seen.They are becoming organized.

2) In the Bay Branch, Westerlies are forming in the south Indian ocean ,off the Sumatran coast.

We prefer  the Bay Branch to be better organised, as the S W Monsoon is expected there in 25-27 days….

They are better organized than last year on date.

Indicator:  Normal

Mascarene high pressures :

The high has strengthened from 1019 last week  to 1031  mb .

Main High reading now 1031 mb, and 2 more Highs (in the forming) have been observed, one at 1029 mb and another at 1025 mb. between Madagascar and Australia.

Last year (2013) on date the main high reading was 1029 mb and other highs were 1025 mb and 1018 mb.

Indicator: Normal (last year was –ve)   

4. ICTZ : To bring the existing SE winds above the equator, the ITCZ should move northwards. Around 1st. of May, this should cross the equator, and be near the South Andaman Seas around 10^th May.

Not much thundery activity in the western Indian ocean .The eastern end sees some Activity.

The ICTZ runs roughly along the 7S line, almost along the entire length from East Africa towards the Southern Indonesian Islands.

Indicator: -ve (last year was normal)         

 5. But the Pre Monsoon Low in the Bay is still elusive. As discussed, we should normally see a low sometime after the 15th. of April. The high pressure region in the Bay, at sea level, no longer prevails.

I do not see much happening soon, as the region does not have the support of a strong MJO. An strong MJO would hasten the favourable formations and lows, with enhanced precipitation. We do not see the MJO wave strengthening till 28^th April at least.

Another factor, which helps the winds gain strength, and bring more moisture into the Indian landmass, is the sea temperatures on both sides of the Peninsula. Optimum (warm) temperatures will hasten and create more clouds, and help in faster forming of the lows from the Bay. 
This parameter, is unfavourable compared to last year. See comparitive SST Maps with Last Year

The sea waters are cooler around the Maldives this year.

In the South Indian Ocean, the waters are a bit warmer than last year ,but the Mascarene highs are stronger than last year as already  mentioned above.See comparative Maps below.

Indicator: -ve (last year was normal)               

So, overall, we can summarize as:

Parameter:

1)  Seasonal low:-ve   

2) Enso:Towards El Nino

3)  Cross equatorial winds and Mascarene high : Normal

4) ICTZ : -ve   5) SST: -ve

[Note: the parameters can swing rapidly in short duration as seen in previous years].

Most parameters are Negative as of today.

But, situations can change fast, and by the time we discuss the next MW, some factors can suddenly become +ve or -ve. So, MW discusses and follows the developments as they emerge, and discuss the parameters as is where is.

No model can commit from today when the Monsoon can arrive. Quantum of rain forecasting in the month of  April,  for a period right through September is an impossible task.

Next MW up on 28th. April with Dates of Monsoon Arrival for 1st Phase of Monsoon upto Central India Region

(Last Year (2013), Vagaries had a written Examination cum Learning Curriculum for Forecasting the South West Monsoon. The 2nd Palce with 55% marks was achived by vagarian Rohit Aroskar. This time for MW-2, Rohit's contribution and observations were scrutinised and added to this article.)

These reports are my personal views, study and observations. Estimates and forecasts are also my own calculations and views, and may/may not tally with any other estimates. This may not be used for commercial purposes. The author is not responsible for any commercial loss from this article, or this series of articles.

----------------------End of Article--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Finally..MW-2 coming up tonite ...
Thunder storms in Rajkot and many parts of Saurashtra on Sunday ...Ahmedabad sees record high winds and Thunderstorm Sunday evening...
Picture of Thunder heads in Eastern Townships of Mumbai sent by Abhijit Modak on Inter Active Page...Talegaon and Shirdi had heavy rains.

TWO CONSECUTIVE WDs A-3 & A-4 PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN NORTH INDIA...
Western Disturbances with an induced low and a deeper trough brought widespread moderate to heavy rainfall in Northwest India. WDs namely A-3 & A-4 led to continuous five rainy days in northern parts. Parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal & Punjab got heavy rain with strong gusts. Delhi-NCR, Haryana, Rajasthan & West UP also recorded light to moderate rain on multiple occasions. 

This continuous rainfall activity gradually lowered the day temperatures in both the plains & the hilly regions. Few areas are even 15 notches below the normal range. Delhi-NCR got one spell from each WD. The second spell on 18 April morning was stronger than the previous spell along with strong gusty winds & widespread rainfall in the whole region. Safdarjung observatory in New Delhi saw a south westerly squall on 18th morning with a maximum wind speed of 78 km/hr.

Western Rajasthan also benefitted from both the systems with light to moderate rain with strong winds. Also the day temperatures were much lower in parts of west UP on 18th due to rain in the early morning period which continued till afternoon.

Here's the maximum temperature & precipitation during the past 24 hours ending at 8:30 am IST(19 April) over various parts of the region...

STATE	CITY	TEMPERATURE (°C)	DEPARTURE  (°C)	RAINFALL (mm)
JAMMU & KASHMIR	Banihal	9.1	(-13)	51.30
JAMMU & KASHMIR	Batote	9.7	(-13)	64.60
JAMMU & KASHMIR	Bhaderwah	9.5	(-15)	79.40
JAMMU & KASHMIR	Gulmarg	1.8	(-9)	20.00
JAMMU & KASHMIR	Jammu	22.3	(-10)	12.50
JAMMU & KASHMIR	Katra	18.9	(-11)	28.10
JAMMU & KASHMIR	Kukernag	8.9	(-10)	28.40
JAMMU & KASHMIR	Kupwara	9.6	(-12)	19.30
JAMMU & KASHMIR	Pahalgam	6.2	(-12)	29.30
JAMMU & KASHMIR	Qazigund	11.0	(-10)	20.20
JAMMU & KASHMIR	Srinagar	13.3	(-8)	12.00
HIMACHAL PRADESH	Bilaspur	25.5	(-8)	17.00
HIMACHAL PRADESH	Chamba	17.5	(-8)	62.00
HIMACHAL PRADESH	Dharamsala	20.2	(-6)	61.20
HIMACHAL PRADESH	Hamirpur	23.3	(-10)	33.20
HIMACHAL PRADESH	Kalpa	13.0	(-4)	14.00
HIMACHAL PRADESH	Sundernagar	23.7	(-6)	28.80
HIMACHAL PRADESH	Kullu	23.5	(-5)	12.50
HIMACHAL PRADESH	Una	27.8	(-8)	8.80
HIMACHAL PRADESH	Nahan	24.4	(-8)	29.30
HIMACHAL PRADESH	Solan	23.0	(-4)	19.40
UTTARAKHAND	Almora	16.1	(-6)	NIL
UTTARAKHAND	Champawat	14.3	(-7)	2.00
UTTARAKHAND	Dehradun	28.0	(-4)	5.50
UTTARAKHAND	Mukteshwar	16.0	(-6)	NIL
UTTARAKHAND	Mussorie	13.6	(-7)	6.00
UTTARAKHAND	Nainital	15.4	(-5)	6.00
UTTARAKHAND	Pantnagar	15.3	(-6)	NIL
UTTARAKHAND	Pithoragarh	15.3	(-8)	0.80
UTTARAKHAND	Tehri	16.0	(-6)	0.40
UTTARAKHAND	Uttarkashi	16.0	(-7)	8.00
PUNJAB	Amritsar	26.0	(-8)	39.80
PUNJAB	Ferozepore	29.9	(-6)	37.00
PUNJAB	Anandpur Sahib	29.0	(-5)	27.00
PUNJAB	Bhatinda	31.0	(-5)	4.00
PUNJAB	Kapurthala	28.4	(-6)	73.00
PUNJAB	Ludhiana	29.2	(-6)	24.00
PUNJAB	Pathankot	23.2	(-11)	NA
PUNJAB	Patiala	28.6	(-6)	11.50
CHANDIGARH	Chandigarh	29.0	(-5)	16.80
HARYANA	Ambala	27.4	(-6)	8.80
HARYANA	Bhiwani	29.4	(-7)	NIL
HARYANA	Gurgaon	29.3	(-7)	NIL
HARYANA	Hisar	30.0	(-7)	NIL
HARYANA	Karnal	27.6	(-7)	NIL
HARYANA	Kurukshetra	27.7	(-6)	NIL
HARYANA	Narnaul	27.5	(-10)	NIL
HARYANA	Rohtak	28.3	(-6)	1.00
NEW DELHI	Safdarjung	30.0	(-6)	TRACE
NEW DELHI	Palam	30.7	(-7)	NIL
RAJASTHAN	Ajmer	30.8	(-6)	11.40
RAJASTHAN	Churu	30.8	(-8)	NIL
RAJASTHAN	Jaipur	31.6	(-5)	NIL
RAJASTHAN	Jaisalmer	31.0	(-8)	0.40
RAJASTHAN	Jodhpur	33.6	(-5)	9.40
RAJASTHAN	Kota	36.9	(-2)	0.10
RAJASTHAN	Sriganganagar	32.3	(-5)	5.60
UTTAR PRADESH	Agra	29.3	(-10)	2.40
UTTAR PRADESH	Aligarh	29.0	(-8)	3.00
UTTAR PRADESH	Bahraich	31.6	(-5)	0.40
UTTAR PRADESH	Banda	37.4	(-3)	0.40
UTTAR PRADESH	Bareilly	24.8	(-12)	7.20
UTTAR PRADESH	Fursatganj	33.6	(-4)	0.60
UTTAR PRADESH	Hardoi	25.0	(-11)	8.00
UTTAR PRADESH	Jhansi	37.3	(-3)	7.90
UTTAR PRADESH	Kanpur	29.4	(-9)	4.40
UTTAR PRADESH	Lucknow	29.6	(-8)	TRACE
UTTAR PRADESH	Shahjahanpur	24.0	(-11)	7.40
UTTAR PRADESH	Moradabad	29.5	(-6)	4.40
UTTAR PRADESH	Meerut	28.5	(-8)	0.20
UTTAR PRADESH	Muzaffarnagar	26.9	(-8)	NIL

MW-2 is being made, draft ready and managing final touch with current position..will be on blog very late Saturday Night...
Publishing Defered till Sunday Evening due to compilation and fact searching delays...

Outlook for the coming Weekend, Friday,18th, Saturday19th and Sunday 20th April;

Friday: A-4 will be precipitating in the Northern Pakistan areas of Punjab and Upper Sindh and parts of South Sindh. Many Central Sindh cities like Nawabshah, Sukkur and Hyderabad are likely to get rains. 

In India also, the WD will precipitate in Kashmir, HP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana and some severe storms in Rajasthan and North MP.
The higher reaches of the Hill states are likely to get snow. Heavier showers in Western Nepal.
That means, continuing below normal day temperatures in the North.
A trough, and a semi formed LWD will get thunder showers to Southern Maharashtra and interior Karnataka. 
Belgaum can get the evening thunder shower.

Bangalore too can possibly get the long waited thunder shower on Friday.

Saturday:
A-4 moves east, and keeps the Sindh dry. Sporadic showers continue in Pak Punjab.
Northern India get another day of rains, which decrease by Saturday night. Rains in Punjab, Haryana and Northern Rajasthan plains will continue for another day.
Raipur can get another Thunder shower on Saturday/Sunday.
A-4 weakens and withdraws from the region. Rains almost cease in the North, bringing out the sun and heat from Monday.

Southwards, Thunder showers will lash Southern Maharashtra and Marathwada. The "line " of Thunde cells developing will be Southwards from Southern Maharashtra into adjoining N.I. Karataka, which too will get thunder showers. But rains decrease in S.I..Karnataka.

As the WD disintegrates , Kathmandu can get light showers on Saturday. Otherwise we see the days pleasant around 30c, heating up suddenly from Sunday.
Sunday:

But its Maharshtra special for Sunday,with the entire state barring Konkan poised to get thunder showers.Thunder showers cooling Nagpur and Aurangabad on Sunday.

City Forecast for next 3 days:
Mumbai will be partly cloudy, and getting cloudy and night.With the day temperature around 32c, expect the nights to get more warmer (26c) and humid (stuffy).
Parts of city can expect light drizzles on Sunday evening. Monday too will be cloudy with light rains in some parts.

Pune, will have to bear the heating as it increases from Friday to Saturday. Days could go to 39/40c.
Only to be possibly rewarded with a "good" thunderstorm on Sunday.

Bangalore, with the chance of a thunder shower in the vicinity on Friday, will be hot at 35c on Saturday and Sunday with no rain. 

Delhi NCR: Depending on A-4 on Friday and Saturday for the temperatures to remain around 33/34c, with clouds and light to moderate rains in many parts on Friday and Saturday.
But as mentioned, A-4 moves away on Sunday, which will become sunny and warmer.

Kolkata will remain dry and hot, as the rains in the west will not be effecting or reaching Bengal, blocked by a ridge. Hence, the heating will continue, and with sunny days, may take Kolkata beyond the 40c mark this weekend.

Raipur will possibly see more thunder showers this weekend, especially on Saturday/Sunday.

Pakistan:
Islamabad will be cloudy, with intermittent rain during Friday and Saturday. Day will be pleasant at 23/24c, rising on Sunday to cross 30c as clouds disappear.

Karachi will be partly cloudy on Friday and Saturday, around 34/35c. Sunday will be sunny and hot at 36c.

Sibbi, Turbat or Dadu could possibly heat up to 42c on Sunday.

Heat Wave in Oman..Hot for April !..See International Page

Posted Thursday Evening:
Prateek sends report of Thunder Storm in Raipur...as per vagaries' forcast...pics from Prateek on Inter active Page

Posted Wednesday Night:
Expected rainfall occurred in Udaipur region on Wednesday evening...parts  of the region had light rain showers, with Chittorgarh measuring 1 mm.
After Pune jumped to 39.1c, parts of Pune had light thunder shower in the evening ...Kolhapur received 1mm

Posted Wednesday Morning:
True to schedule (below), come Wednesday and parts of Delhi NCR got showers. Several reports have come in with Arpit mentioning heavy rains in Ghaziabad, and Noida getting 4/5 mms.
A-3 is showing its strength in the region as mentioned.

And, A-4 trough has formed and the induced UAC taking shape soon.
As mentioned, will keep day temperatures down. Diagram shows the oscillating averages between "red" and "blue", which has kept the overall average (for Delhi) almost on normal level, 0.01c below.

As per below estimate, Tuesday Night / Wednesday, Can expect light drizzles in Karachi. Hyderabad may get light showers, Nawabshah also light showers amidst cloudy weather. Around 5-7 mms in Nawabshah possible.

Posted Monday 14th April:
Estimate for next 3 days from 15th April 

Tuesday 15th April:
A-3, as a trough with an induced Low moves into Pakistan. Rain is expected in Northern regions of Pakistan and most parts of Central and Northern Sindh. Rainfall increases in Sindh towards night. Expect rainfall in Faisalabd, Sukkur, Dau and Nawabshah regions. Besides all regions of Pak Punjab. 
Rainfall also effective in Kashmir and HP on Tuesday. 
Fairly heavy rainfall in Kerala and S.I. Karnataka.

Wednesday 16th April:
Effect of A-3 moves into Northern India.Besides Kashmir and HP, we can see rainfall in Rajasthan and Punjab, Haryana and parts of 
Delhi NCR may get thunder showers in parts of the region. Delhi will not rise to above 35/36c next few days.
Udaipur region may get a thunder shower in the evening.
Rainfall from a UAC is expected in Chattisgarh and Jharkhand.

Thursday 17th April:
Though the WD moves eats from Pakistan, decreasing rainfall in Sindh, we see continuing rains in Northern Pakistan and Pak Punjab.Indian Punjab, Haryana and Kashmir and HP too gets continuing showers.. Rains will also be effective in parts of Northern MP. Odisha gets heavy thunder showers. Bhubaneshwar and Raipur will see thunder showers.

Friday 18th April:
A-4 moves in with a deeper trough, bringing rains to Himalayan Hill states and more thunder rains to the plains of Pak Punjab, Central and Upper Sindh and parts of Southern Sindh around Hyderabad and Karachi.
The Indian states of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, West UP and North MP get thunder showers. Pockets of Interior Maharashtra will get thunder showers.
Aurangabad and Marathwada can get thundershowers.

All this sounds good, but not so well for the MW-2 preparations. 
The average temperatures in the sub Continent for April are really not heating up, ( except the Bengal belt) and the weekly map and 1 day map of Monday 14th shows near normal with below normal pockets, and now the entire regions mentioned above will see below normal temperatures, with day temperatures dropping a couple of degrees, and remaining below normal....and, does this mean well for the formation of the seasonal low ? 

Only consolation is that Bengal may still heat up, and Kolkata may reach 40c in next 2 days..
Pune may hover around 40c on Tuesday and Wednesday, with night temperatures rising .
Bangalore too will be hot around 35c, but chance of thundershowers on Thursday /Friday.

1. A-3 should move into Northern Pakistan (Northern Sindh and Pak Punjab) by 16th April. A-3 in North India by 17th April.
2. Rainfall along East coast decreasing from 14th. Moving towards Bengal...Moving towards Kolkata , where Thunder shower possible on 15th/16th.
3. Rains increases in kerala next few days.Shower for Bangalore on 14th/15th April.

Madhya Maharastra was cool on Sunday morning...Ahmadnagar was 15.2c (6c below) ,  Pune saw a low of 14.7c (5c below), while Mahableshwar was 19.2c.