Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Posted 23rd October Night:
After hesitation, finally South West Monsoon withdraws from the country and allows North East Monsoon winds to set in ...

The Satellite image below shows and indicates the South West Monsoon withdrawal winds over India. And also indications of NE upper winds along TN coast and Southern Peninsula indicating advance of North East Monsoon.



-The SWM onset is well defined, and follows a well coursed out Northward progress. And can be discerned with reasonable accuracy on charts.
For the NEM, it is not so.
In fact, on many occasions, there is no clear indication between the withdrawing SWM and setting NEM. Often one tends to merge into another.
So, setting a date for the commencement of NEM is difficult, and sometimes not possible.

-During the NEM, an occasional burst of cold air from the Siberian High develops a low pressure systems over the Equatorial regions of the South China Seas. These systems move slowly westwards thru Sarawak/Eastern Malaysia coast, and remnants of these cross over into the Bay and form depressions.

Also browse thru the article analysing the NEM over the years in Vagaries blog of 23rd September 2016 here   

Reproduced Image from Vagaries blog of 15th October 2015.


Saturday, October 21, 2017

Cooling Starts in North India Plains:
TOP 10 LOWEST MIN TEMP IN CITIES OF PLAINS TODAY(23/10/17).
-----------------------------------
(1) Una: 13°c
(2) Jalandhar: 13.9°c
(3) Kapurthala: 14.3°c
(4) Bhatinda: 14.5°c
(5) Ferozpur: 14.5°c
(6) Muzzafarnagar: 15°c
(7) Hisar: 15.2°c
(8) Chandigarh: 15.2°c
(9) Bhiwani: 15.4°c
(10) DelhiPusa(IARI): 15.7°c....

from Navdeep Dahiya

It rained 19.2 mms in Pune on Sunday 22nd October, and 0.3 mms in Hyderabad.


Posted Saturday 21st Night:

BB-13 crossed into Odisha and moved N/NE and then East into Bangladesh on Saturday. Will move East and fizzle out.

While crossing southern Bengal some 2 day rainfall amounts courtesy "Weather of Kolkata"



Mumbai will be partly cloudy on Sunday 22nd. Warm. 
Monday clearing and sunny...warmer.

Light rains likely in South Madhya Maharahtra and parts of North Telengana. Light rains in some parts of Pune and Hyderabad on Sunday.

Monsoon will withdraw further southwards from the line shown in post below...

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Posted Tuesday 17th October Night:
As per Vagaries, Monsoon has withdrawn from Mumbai and  Maharashtra, Monsoon line shown in attached image as Red Line.
Blue Line is Axis Line.
Hot Divali days....Days will get hot in Mumbai on Wednesday and Divali day.

BB-13, now located at 13.7N and 87.5E, remains of strength as of morning report, at 1002 mb.. Likely to strengthen  and track towards  South Odisha coast. At current status, likely to cross Odisha coast on around 19th as a depression. Heavy rains in coastal Odisha on 19th October. Bhubaneshwar will see increase in rainfall on 19th.
BB-13 can track NE after crossing land .


See Massive October rains in Maharashtra put up by Rohit  (Below) 

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

17 OCT 2017

An extended Thunderstorm (TS) season at Maharashtra results in October toppers..

Keep tapping the blog for 'Vagaries exclusive' statewise seasonal toppers, to be published soon.. 

24 hrs Highest October 2017 rains ..222 mms (Kitwade)

1 to 17 OCTOBER 2017 TOPPERS :

  • KITWADE (Sahyadri Ghats,Maharashtra) .. 543 mms
  • VILVADE  (Konkan , Maharashtra) .. 534 mms
  • PHONDA   (Konkan , Maharashtra) .. 508 mms
Posted Tuesday Morning:
BB-13 now positioned and located at 14.4N and 87.3E. as a low at 1000 mb. As mentioned, likely to strengthen and move NW initially. Will be headed towards Andhra Coast initially.Western segment likely to see precipitation from 18th. 

Mumbai: Monsoon winds likely to change in the next 24 hrs, and humidity levels will fall. Monsoon withdrawal signs clear now. No rains expected Tuesday.

Sunday, October 15, 2017

Posted 15th October Night:
Bengaluru City:
South West Monsoon started poorly in Bangalore City...The first 75 days from 1st June to 15th August brought only 129 mms of rain...The next 60 days till 15th October saw 44 wet days.Incessant rains over the past 2 months has totalled up 1660 mms ( till date) of rain in Bangalore City in 2017. 
Bangalore AP shows a total of 1330 mms this year till date...
Graph of Airport of last 90 days: 


This ( 1660 mms) is the Highest ever for Bangalore City in a calendar year. Normal annual is 980 mms.....October this year to date has recorded 386 mms (281 mms above normal).
This is due to the extended period of the SWM in Bangalore...and we have two and a half months of NEM still to come !

The earlier record was 1608 mms set in 2005 mms. Before that it as 1349 mms in 1916 . Lowest annual total ever is 544 mms in 1913. However the wettest ever October was in 1956 with 522 mms.

However, we find rainfall decreasing to almost no rain after Monday 16th for a week at least.

Mumbai:
Mumbai Santa Cruz touches 3000 mms ...Jan-May 4 mms, June-September 2946 mms Octber tilll date 52 mms...Total 3002 mms.( For records see Vagaries Extreme).

Sunday 15th  saw some sharp showers in the Northern Suburbs of Mumbai, with Mulund recording 44 mms and Kandivali 33 mms. 

This could possibly be the end of the seasonal rains for Mumbai City. Expecting Monsoon current and strength to end from Monday 16th October (Mumbai City and surroundings). From Tuesday/Wednesday, winds will change to N/NE.

SWM likely to withdraw from North Konkan, Vidharbh and North Madhya Mah.and Eastwards.