Posted Monday 18th November:

Unseasonal extra rainfall for some cities from cyclones Mid October-Mid November

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Fresh, Early Snowfall Beautifies Morocco’s Winter Wonderland, Ifrane

MUMBAI SCZ (Vile Parle) .. year 2019 till now 

A) Monthly weather averages 2019

(Coolest month .. Jan @ 23.6 c,Warmest month .. Jun @ 30.2 c )

Average temp : 32.2 c / 23.1 c ( near normal )

Total rains : 3854 mms in 99 days 
(Nearby Powai / Tulshi has reported 5000 + mms)


B) Monthly weather extremes 2019

Highest Heat Index : 48 (9th June)
Highest temp : 40.3 c ( 25th March ) , 
Lowest temp : 11 c ( 9th Feb )

Highest Daily Range @ 19c  ..9th Feb (30 c / 11 c)

Highest rains in a day : 375 mms ( 2nd July )

C) Temperature spread 2019 (317 days)

Minimum temp :
Less than or equal to 20 c..74 days ,
out of which ..
less than or equal to 18 c ..41 days
less than or equal to 15 c ..16 days 

More than or equal to 26 c .. 59 days ,
out of which ..
more than or equal to 28 c .. 12 days 

Maximum temp :
Less than or equal to 30 c..59 days ,
out of which ..
less than or equal to 28 c ..14 days

More than or equal to 35 c .. 27 days ,
out of which ..
more than or equal to 38 c .. 2 days 
more than or equal to 40 c .. 1 day

D) IMD Scz (Vile Parle) area in pics 

HAPPY DIWALI ..

• Vagaries exclusive .. Festive weather series..Part 3..
  
  Past 20 years Diwali days (Narak Chaturdashi / Lakshmi Poojan / Balipratipada /Bhaubij )  weather averages of 16 cities..
  
  (period .. 17 Oct to 16 Nov )
  
  Part 3  ..Delhi , Dehradun , Kolkata , Bhubaneshwar , Guwahati..
  
  Diwali marks the transition season on the way to cooler weather over most parts of the country.

1. North India  :

North India temps decrease progressively during this period.

If Diwali is in November , North India is the driest and coolest part of the country during Diwali.

Dehradun is crisp,cool and dry during this season.

Diwali days weather averages (past 20 years .. Diwali 1999 to 2018)

As Diwali is a multi day festival , average of each city is for 3 days of 

Narak Chaturdashi / Laxmi poojan / Bali Pratipada /  Bhaubij

Average of each city is for 60 days .. (20 years x 3 days of Diwali per year = 60 days)

	DELHI SFD	DEHRADUN
IF DIWALI IS IN OCTOBER	32.2 / 17.6	28.3 / 14.8
IF DIWALI IS IN NOVEMBER	29.2 / 14.1	26.6 / 12.1
AVERAGE TEMP	30.5 / 15.7	27.3 / 13.3
AVERAGE RAIN PER DAY	trace	0.2 mms
RAINY DAYS OUT OF 60	0 days	2 days
HIGHEST MAX	36.3 c	34.5 c
LOWEST MAX	25.4 c	21.5 c
max below 30 c (out of 60 days)	22 days	57 days
max above 35 c (out of 60 days)	1 day	0 days
HIGHEST MIN	20.2 c	18 c
LOWEST MIN	10.5 c	10 c
min below 20 c (out of 60 days)	59 days	60 days
min above 25 c (out of 60 days)	0 days	0 days
HIGHEST RAINFALL ON  A DIWALI DAY	0.5 mms	9 mms

2. East India  :

Thunderstorms / Cyclones may occur during this period over Eastern India.

East/North-East India has milder and drier Diwali days in November as compared to October .

Diwali days weather averages (past 20 years .. Diwali 1999 to 2018)

As Diwali is a multi day festival , average of each city is for 3 days of 

Narak Chaturdashi / Laxmi poojan / Bali Pratipada /  Bhaubij

Average of each city is for 60 days .. (20 years x 3 days of Diwali per year = 60 days)

	KOLKATA AP	BHUBANESHWAR	GUWAHATI
IF DIWALI IS IN OCTOBER	30.8 / 23	31.7 / 22.3	30 / 21
IF DIWALI IS IN NOVEMBER	31 / 20.7	31.5 / 20.9	29.4 / 18.2
AVERAGE TEMP	30.9 / 21.7	31.6 / 21.5	29.7 / 19.5
AVERAGE RAIN PER DAY	2.4 mms	3.5 mms	2 mms
RAINY DAYS OUT OF 60	6 days	7 days	8 days
HIGHEST MAX	34.2 c	34.2 c	34.5 c
LOWEST MAX	24.3 c	26.4 c	21.3 c
max below 30 c (out of 60 days)	12 days	8 days	28 days
max above 35 c (out of 60 days)	0 days	0 days	0 days
HIGHEST MIN	27.2 c	25 c	24.6 c
LOWEST MIN	17.4 c	15.4 c	13.2 c
min below 20 c (out of 60 days)	16 days	11 days	30 days
min above 25 c (out of 60 days)	2 days	0 days	0 days
HIGHEST RAINFALL ON  A DIWALI DAY	70 mms	82 mms	55 mms

2019.. The year of records ..8 Nov 2019..

Mumbai (IMD Scz, Vile Parle) :

• First September monthly rain with 1116 mms and monsoon total with 3670 mms 
• Then annual with 3791 mms 
• Now, with heavy rains today morning .. Mumbai (IMD Scz) break it's all time November monthly rain record ..new record is 109 mms 

Clouds shine over IMD Scz today morning (8 Nov) as rain records tumble..

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After Cyclonic disturbances (Kyarr and Maha) .. 
I continue with the festive weather series part 2 

HAPPY DIWALI ..

Vagaries exclusive .. Festive weather series..Part 2..

Past 20 years Diwali days (Narak Chaturdashi / Lakshmi Poojan / Balipratipada /Bhaubij )  weather averages of 16 cities..

(period .. 17 Oct to 16 Nov )

Part 2  ..Kochi , Chennai , Bengaluru , Hyderabad..

stay tuned for..Part 3 ..Delhi , Dehradun , Kolkata , Bhubaneshwar, Guwahati

Diwali marks the transition season on the way to cooler weather over most parts of the country.

1. South India coastal plains  :

Kerala coast remains range bound (around 31 / 24) throughout October and November .

Tamilnadu coast alongwith Kerala coast is the rainiest part of India during this season.

Diwali days weather averages (past 20 years .. Diwali 1999 to 2018)
As Diwali is a multi day festival , average of each city is for 3 days of 
Narak Chaturdashi / Laxmi poojan / Bali Pratipada /  Bhaubij

Average of each city is for 60 days .. (20 years x 3 days of Diwali per year = 60 days)

	KOCHI	CHENNAI AP
IF DIWALI IS IN OCTOBER	31.3 / 24.1	33 / 23.7
IF DIWALI IS IN NOVEMBER	31.1 / 24.1	30.8 / 23.6
AVERAGE TEMP	31.2 / 24.1	31.8 / 23.6
AVERAGE RAIN PER DAY	5.6 mms	9.1 mms
RAINY DAYS OUT OF 60	18 days	24 days
HIGHEST MAX	34.2 c	35.5 c
LOWEST MAX	28.8 c	25 c
max below 30 c (out of 60 days)	6 days	8 days
max above 35 c (out of 60 days)	0 days	3 days
HIGHEST MIN	25.6 c	26.3 c
LOWEST MIN	21.6 c	19.5 c
min below 20 c (out of 60 days)	0 days	1 day
min above 25 c (out of 60 days)	10 days	4 days
HIGHEST RAINFALL ON  A DIWALI DAY	58 mms	86 mms

2. Deccan Plateau (South India) :

Bengaluru and Hyderabad have fine weather during this period.
Bengaluru can be cloudy ,cool and rainy during this time.
Hyderabad is drier.

Diwali days weather averages (past 20 years .. Diwali 1999 to 2018)
As Diwali is a multi day festival , average of each city is for 3 days of 
Narak Chaturdashi / Laxmi poojan / Bali Pratipada /  Bhaubij

Average of each city is for 60 days .. (20 years x 3 days of Diwali per year = 60 days)

	BENGALURU	HYDERABAD
IF DIWALI IS IN OCTOBER	29.3 / 18.9	32.2 / 19.8
IF DIWALI IS IN NOVEMBER	27.6 / 18.6	31 / 18.8
AVERAGE TEMP	28.3 / 18.7	31.5 / 19.2
AVERAGE RAIN PER DAY	3.4 mms	0.1 mms
RAINY DAYS OUT OF 60	11 days	2 days
HIGHEST MAX	32 c	35.1 c
LOWEST MAX	19.8 c	27.6 c
max below 30 c (out of 60 days)	47 days	11 days
max above 35 c (out of 60 days)	0 days	1 day
HIGHEST MIN	21 c	23 c
LOWEST MIN	13.4 c	14.3 c
min below 20 c (out of 60 days)	45 days	32 days
min above 25 c (out of 60 days)	0 days	0 days
HIGHEST RAINFALL ON  A DIWALI DAY	63 mms	3 mms

Credit Navdeep Dahiya 
Posted Thursday 7th Morning:

Western Disturbance has precipitated Snow in the higher and middle reaches of Kashmir. Gulmarg and Sonmarg got the first snowfall on Wednesday 6th.
Several parts of H.P. was receiving rains and snow in the higher reaches.

Delhi will see a drop in temperatures, as the day drops below 30c by Friday. Weekend will be windy and further fall in minimum temperatures by 3/4c. Air Quality should improve

{Vagaries estimate of 3rd November..just to compare}

Mumbai will be partly cloudy and windy on Thursday. Light passing rains expected in some parts.
Rains will finally stop from this weekend. 

Pune it seems has had more than its share this year..so now we may expect a final stop .

Most common mistake by layman..Maha effect in interior Western India ...corrected. Image of Wednesday eveining  5 pm IST

Posted 6th afternoon:
"Maha" moves Eastwards, and weaken as mentioned constantly. After crossing 69E, will weaken rapidly to a Depression...Heading as a Low towards North of Mumbai.
(Forecast valid as Below)
BB-20 now a Deep Depression at 13.4N and 89.3 E..moving as expected.

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Posted 5th November Afternoon;

"Maha" has re curved. Now entering drier air and resistance and weakening (Quite fast) as it tracks E/NE..finally a Low over South Gujarat.

Heavy rains in South and Coastal Saurashtra and Navsari, Surat and Bharuch Dist with windy conditions from 6th Evening to 8th Morning.

North Konkan to get windy and moderate rains with few patches of heavy rains on 7th .

BB-20 is now a depression and strengthening with favourable conditions...to be a cyclone in 24 hrs.."Bulbul"....Tracking NW and along coast then.

See Image Below

Veraval and Coastal Saurashtra: Heavy showers on Wednesday 6th/Thursday 7th.

Surat/Valsad/Bharuch: Moderate to a few heavy showers on Thursday 7th/Friday 8th.

Mumbai/Pune:  Wednesday 6th, Thursday 7th, Friday 8th. 

Some showers in parts of city, varying intensity ..Pune might get heavy on Wednesday.