Friday, October 31, 2014

Posted Friday Night: 31st November:

The WML off the Gujarat/Sindh coast shows a last flicker, and got re energised slightly, and was at estimated pressure of 1006 mb on Friday Night...precipitating in Kutch and Lower Sindh.

Western Disturbance N-1 seen approaching from the West. Should be over North Pakistan by the 3rd November, and Moving into India the next day.
Rain/Snow in the Hills of Northern Sub Continent. Precipitation also likely in the Punjabs and Upper plains of India and Pakistan. Drop in day temperatures and subsequently fall in night temperatures after 5th November.

Vagaries had put up of a Low forming off the TN coast on Friday 31st...It has formed, and we can expect the heavy rains in Chennai from night and occasional showers on Saturday, possibly increasing on Sunday to intermittent rains. Decrease thereafter.

A fresh Low will form in the Southern Bay, East of Sri Lanka near 90E, around the 3rd of November. Low likely to intensify, and seems initially it will concentrate into a Deep Depression or Cyclone. Movement as on current trend seems to be tracking towards the North TN coast.

Forecast for Saturday 1st November and Sunday 2nd:

Mumbai: Saturday Sunny and warm....and hot on Sunday.
Saturday day temp will be around 35c, increasing to 36c on Sunday. Piercing in the Sun, and not much further drop in night temperatures from 21/22c. East winds pre noon and turning West later.
Eastern Outer townships also getting hhot at 36c, and 20c at night.

Pune: Pune sunny and around 30/31c. Nights pleasant around 16/17c.

Delhi NCR: Partly cloudy on Saturday, clearing later. Days around 30c and nights getting a bit cooler to around 14/15c. 

Thursday, October 30, 2014

 Will mid level Westerlies notch up the system 1 level before landfall ?  WML now at 1006.9 mb (approx)...lets see tonight !
The expected Low has formed off the TN coast...


Friday Noon: Erstwhile "Nilofar" now just a Well Marked Low West of Gujarat...and weakening ...Image of 11.30 am IST Friday




Though the Centre is off the coast, we see clouding penetrating into Gujarat and Rajasthan.


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Report of Thursday Mid Night IST..

The Deep Depression is Situated now ( 11.30 pm IST) at 20.8N and 65.1E, approximately 450 kms from Dwarka. With a lop sided centre, the system sees clouds and precipitation has "buldged" to the NE, and moving into the North Saurashtra/Kutch regions and Parts of Lower Sindh.

At 997 mb with winds at 38-45 knts, it will  cross a Depression into the Land region between Porbandar and Kutch Coast.


Nilofar Positional Report as ay 10.30 pm IST:

By Advanced DVORAK Technique and Intensity Algorithm, Nilofar is current analysed at 20.4N and 64.5E...having moved very little, and still about 410 kms from Kutch Coast and 490 kms from Dwarka.




Having again weakened to a Deep Depression with estimated wind speeds at 45 knts  (3 minutes avg) and estimated pressure at 996 mb. Surprising is the rise in Central core temperatures to...+7.4c. Strong divergent convection brings mass clouding to the NW quadrant of the system.

Todays next follow up update at 12 mid night


Report Thursday 5.30 pm IST:

Cyclone Nilofar, now weakens to  an estimated Central pressure of 995 mb with estimated core winds at around 50  knts, 90 kmph. Core pressure is calculated  taking a 87 kms radii of 34 knots.
Moving NE, and Located at 20.18N and 64.2E. its centre is about 450 kms from the Indian Landmass (Western Kutch). Latest ( 4 pm IST) Imagery shows still heavy rains in due to divergent convection in NW quadrant of system  region. 




Weakening to Deep Depression in next 6 hrs.
The Central Cloud temperature is at -63c.

As indicated in earlier Forecasts, very heavy rains are likely to commence around the Dwarka and Okha regions by Thursday night.
Kutch and Lower Sindh will also get showers from Thursday night as forecasted.

East/NE winds have started blowing in Karachi, indicative of system being in the S/SE of the city. Rain showers likely tonite.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Wednesday Mid Night:

Nilofar has weakened to Cat 2 now...as on Wednesday night....form Cat 4 in 24 hrs.
Core winds drop to an estimated 90 knts, and estimated core pressure revised to  975 mb. Now, as expected, it has started its re curving, though still tracking N/NE, and is located at 19.9N and 63.5E.
#nilofar is tracking along the NW edge of the Sub Tropical Ridge, and will soon move along the Northern edge of the STR.
Tracking towards the targeted region, it will weaken more, and as mentioned by Vagaries, should make landfall near North Gujarat/Kutch on Friday 31st mid day as a depression.
En route, it is facing strong Vertical Wind Shear, 30-40 knts. But, we observe a strong Upper winds as Westerlies, which to an extent off sets the Vertical Wind Shear effect. Also, dry air has started encircling the system from the SE and East also. 

On Thursday Night thru Friday, Winds around Kutch region and adjoining Lower Sindh would be around 60 knts. 110 kmph along the coast. Heavy showers likely in Eastern regions of Sindh Coast and Kutch. Dwarka and many places in Kutch can get very heavy rains on Friday 31st. Expected rainfall in many cities around 50-60 mms in Kutch. 

Karachi: Almost constant in forecast as mentioned. Thunder showers with few heavy falls on Friday and into Saturday. Can expect around 20 mms in that period.
Heavy falls in South East Sindh from Thursday Night thru Friday. Expecting around 20-25 mms in the Thursday Night thru Friday night period.

A Low is expected to form off the North Tamil Nadu Coast on 31st October. Heavy rains are likely on Friday and Saturday (when Low crosses coast near Puducherry) in Chennai. We can expect around 40 mms in Chennai Friday evening thru 24 hrs. Heavy falls likely in Kanchipuram District.

Forecast for Thursday and Friday:
Mumbai: sunny and hot in the day...Day maximum around 34/35c..but nights cooler at 21c.
Surat: Cloudy with light rains in some parts on Friday/
Delhi NCR can expect cloudy weather with light rains in parts on 1st November


Monday, October 27, 2014

Next Update here at 11.30 pm IST Wednesday...stay tuned

Tuesday Night Report: #cyclone nilofar



Nilofar has geared upto Cat 4 !.Thats a bit surprising and beats all forecasts...Having moved North, sort of fast at 9 knots,  to 16.8N and 61.5E, its estimated core winds are a devastating 115 knts ( 213  kmph) and estimated pressure at 935-940  mb.

Time has come now for #cyclonenilofar to change track towards the NE. Currently at the Eastern Edge of the Sub Tropical Ridge, it will now crest the curve and turn direction. Tracking towards Saurashtra tip and Kutch region. 
But low shear will still strengthen it for next 12 hrs...maybe to 125 knts ( 230 kmph).
Falling back to Cat 3 after 30-36 hrs from this posting.
Repeat from Last Post: Hitting landfall maybe as a deep Depression..

Expecting rains in South East Sindh from Thursday Night thru Friday. Intensity decreases after Friday. Can expect rainfall amounting to 30-40 mms in some regions. Mithi and regions around get showers on Friday, amounting to about 25-35 mms. Showers for Hyderabad (Sindh) on Friday.
Karachi can get showers on Thursday night and Friday, but rains will be about 15-20 mms.

Mumbai: As mentioned yesterday, Mumbai's day temperature rose to 34c at Colaba and 34.5c at Scruz. Low was at 23.0c. Wednesday expect 34/35c.
Weather getting cloudy for Delhi NCR from Thursday.

See Beautiful Sunsets pics sent by Cmgr Potey (Karwar), Pavan (Pune) and Atul (Goa)..on Interactive Page
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Tuesday Afternoon: #Nilofar has strengthened further and now at Cat 2..with Estimated core pressure at 970 mb and estimated core winds at 90 knts. Completely estimated as eye is now fully covered with clouds.
Location is 15.7N and 61.7E, having moved NW.
Track remains as explained earlier.

Clouding expected to cover Coastal Saurashtra and West and Central Parts of Saurashtra and Southern Kutch in the next 12 hrs.

Monday Night 11.30 pm IST..

#Nilofar has tracked NW, albeit slow at 5 knts, from Last reporting.  Located at 15.2N and 62.2E, estimated core winds have gained speed to 75 knts, and estimated core pressure 980-984 mb..

As explained, the Seasonal Sub Tropical Ridge has taken charge of its track now. Movement to continue for 24 hrs towards NW, and becoming Cat 2..

The dry air factor was mentioned here as early as 25th October, and again repeated yesterday night. Well, the swath of dry air is covering , or encircling the system from West, South-West and now South...

Very Severe Cyclone will weaken after Wednesday, and in all probability head for our original target, (see Chart below),  Around Dwarka, on the Saurashtra tip. Landfall, it seems now, will be at Deep Depression strength...

Divergence is shrinking in the East of the system...hence, the clouds East of system will gradually reduce from Tuesday. (see CIMSS Image of Divergence)



Mumbai: Tuesday onwards, gone are the overcast days ! Getting sunny and ...warm again. Days could rise to 33c/34c from the current 29/30c. Consolation..Nights in Mumbai City would be around 22/23c. Further lower temps at night in outer townships.

Pune: Clearing and rising temps...Forget the days with maximum at 22/23c...rising to 30/31c and nights getting down to 14.15c by Wednesday morning.

Oman: Seems, as the Cyclone Nilofar is scheduled to recurve, Muscat may altogether miss the rains. Day temperatures around 29/30c. and cloudy.
Rains will be restricted to the Southern shores of Oman.

As #cycloneNilofar recurves, Karachi may get clouds on 30th, and rains on 31st. At the current forcast, we can estimate around 40 mms for Karachi between 30th night and 31st October..Rainfall with heavy falls on 31st expected in South Eastern Sindh..

Saturday Vagaries track chart reimposed with actual



5th day of heavy unseasonal rains in Karnataka, ending 8.30 am on 28.10.2014
The Severe Cyclonic Storm 'NILOFAR' further intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm and is about 1110 kms southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 1150 kms south-southwest of Karachi (Pakistan). It would move north-northwestwards during next 12 hours and then gradually recurve northeastwards.

in mm (min 40 mm)

Virupakshipura - 112
Kyasamballi - 111
Shivanasamudra - 106
Kuppagadde - 103
Bidarakere - 102
Mahadeshwarabetta - 99
Akkur Hosahalli - 96
Narasapura - 95
Kamasandra - 92
Shivani - 90
Kembiganhalli - 90
Amrutapur - 87
Ikkanur - 85
Bangarpet - 83
Bukkambudi - 83
HD Horakeredevarpur - 81
Jangamakote - 80
Bada - 78
Vemgal - 77
Tanigebylu - 77
Vijayapura - 76
Adagur - 72
Kappanahalli - 65
Kolar Gold Field - 64
Thopanahalli - 62
Markanja - 42
Koralikuppa - 60
Hirekerur - 58
GKVK - 58
Bangalore KIAL - 53
Channarayapatna - 52
Chickjala - 51
Dudda - 50
Kittur - 50
Madanbhavi - 50
Hanagoadu - 50
Halebeedu - 49
Midigeshi - 48
Hagare - 48
Heggadadevanakote - 47
Gogante - 47
Bettoli - 47
Sarjapura - 46
Holenarasipur - 45
Harle - 45
Shiggaon - 44
Vastare - 44
Salagame - 43
Halekote - 43
Attigundi - 42
Arakere - 42
Mysore - 41
Kuppelur - 40
Kundana - 40
Hosanagar - 40
Malandur - 40
Belaguthi - 40
Chintamani - 40
Ravandur - 40


As on Monday Afternoon, 

"Nilofar" is located at 15N and 62.5E..thus having tracked N/NW since last report. Winds estimated are now 70 knts, 130 kmph...Cat 1 and Severe Cyclonic Storm nomenclature and estimated core pressure 985 mb.

#Nilofar will Track NW till about 59E/60E, before recurving. Will strengthen to Cat 2 in next 36 hrs (from Monday noon), to about 90 knts , 155 kmph and deepen to estimated 970-975 mb...
Will weaken after 36 hrs and move NE towards the North Gujarat region...Further inland track is NE inland towards Rajasthan and Delhi...

Rains in Southern Oman on Tuesday evening with gusty winds. As cyclone may recurve from around 59E, iit seems the extreme force of cyclone is spared for Oman.
Muscat will be cloudy on Tuesday with light showers.


Next Report and Mumbai Forecast tonight by 11.30 pm IST


Sunday Night 12 am...

Nilofar located at 14.4N and 62.9E......but winds estimated at 45-50 knts...Estimated pressure at 994 mb..this 37 GHz sat image shows the eye formation.





Almost Stationary since last report on Vagaries.
Why ? Cyclone is sandwiched between 2 sub tropical ridges...one to the East and one to the West..The STR in the East will dominate by strengthening, and will guide the system NW towards Oman...Later by Tuesday, the all powerful Westerlies in the jet streams will track the cyclone towards the East again. and head towards the West Gujarat coast...

Rainfall along S.Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka continues for next 2 days. Very heavy falls expected in Interior Karnataka.


Heavy rains in Goa last 24 hrs...


Heaviest rains of NEM season in Karnataka, ending 8.30 am on 27.10.2014
The Cyclonic Storm (Nilofar) intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm and lay centred at about 1170 kms southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 1230 kms south-southwest of Karachi (Pakistan). It would move initially north-northwestwards and intensify further into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours.

in mm (min 60 mm)

Kanasavadi - 203
Pavagada - 190
Giriyapura - 150
Bettadakelaginahalli - 160
Y.N.Hoskote - 124
Hirenalluru - 124
Alagatta - 113
Hunsehalli - 106
Adankuppe - 105
Thimmalapura - 105
Settykere - 102
Rattihalli - 100
Shivapura - 95
Kamasandra - 92
Halkurke - 92
Bhadravathi - 92
Ajjampura - 92
Chakanahalli - 91
Yagati - 88
Baasuru - 87
Ikkanur - 85
Chitradurga - 85
Banavara - 83
Sirigere - 83
KR Pet - 82
Chickkanayakanahalli - 82
Banavara - 80
Ramasagar - 80
Huliyur - 76
Arasikere - 74
Seelunare - 74
Arasikere - 74
Kanakatte - 72
Panchanahalli - 72
Thippagondanahalli - 72
Nagaragere - 72
Bargur - 71
Bilichodu - 70
VatadaHosahalli - 65
Haunsabhavi - 63
Eswaragere- 63
Huliyurdurga - 63
Malebennur - 62
Kengeri - 62
Hura - 62
Nuggehalli - 61
Byramangala - 61
Hole Honnuru - 60
Honnavalli - 60
Hosadurga - 60
T.Hagalawadi - 60
Kagalavadi - 60

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Western Disturbance O-2 gave only light rain in North India !!!

WD O-2 gave only light rain in the western Himalayan region except isolated moderate to heavy bursts in Uttarakhand. It was expected that O-2 can give rainfall in Punjab but northern plains remained largely dry except light rain in Jaipur-Ajmer region on Saturday.

It rained at a few places in J&K whereas at isolated places in Himachal & Uttarakhand. However Uttarkashi in Uttarakhand got heavy rain measuring 64 mm on Saturday. Dehradun also received 14.2 & 9.2 mm on Friday & Saturday respectively. Also light snowfall in higher reaches of the western Himalayan region. So O-2 remained dull in providing any significant precipitation.

Places those received rainfall from O-2(minimum 5 mm)...
Uttarkashi: 64 mm

Dehradun: 23.4 mm
Joshimath: 12 mm
Pahalgam: 10 mm
Shopian: 7 mm
Jollygrant: 7 mm
Kukernag: 6.2 mm
Tral: 5 mm

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Sunday 2.30 pm IST: 
Cyclone now located at 14.4N and 62.6E...winds estimate 35 knts. Classified as Cyclone Nilofer..

Seeing dry air in the West (near Oman) and slowly covering towards South of System...Track will now follow the NW route for some time...firm banding seen as core winds start increasing...500 level trough narrowing, and Sub tropical ridge pushing system Northwards..

Rains start in Oman from Tuesday,specially in southern Oman. Wednesday rains increase. Muscat sees rains and windy conditions on Wednesday 29th. Cool day at 27c on Wednesday.
As Cyclone  curves to East, rains decrease in Oman from Thursday.


Next Update 12 midnight Sunday...


Super rains lash Andhra Pradesh for 2nd day, ending 8.30 am on 26.10.2014The depression intensified into a Deep Depression and lays about 1270 km west-southwest of Mumbai and 910 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It would move initially north-northwestwards during next 48 hours. It would intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours and into a severe cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours

in mm (min 90 mm)

Macharla - 293
Pondugula - 249
Udayagiri - 214
Varikuntapadu - 201
Koppunuru - 195
Jangameswaram - 185
Kolukula - 171
Panchalingala - 169
Pedagarlapadu - 161
Veldurthi - 158
Mutukuru - 156
Akumalla - 149
Rentachintala - 146
Vetapalem - 142
Kadavakuduru - 133
Devarampadu - 118
Sanikavaram - 118
Narmalapadu - 117
Perusomala - 117
Bapatla - 114
Pullalacheruvu - 111
Vijayapuri South - 109
Karedu - 107
Rentachintala - 106
Yerragondapalem - 104
G.Singavaram    103
Karamchedu - 97
Rachakonda - 95
Bandlamodu - 94
Salur - 92
Gummanampadu - 91
R.B.Puram - 90
Pakala - 90
Nandyal - 90



Latest Maharshtra Temperature Image on Rohit's Page

Posted Sunday Morning:

Sunday morning, AS-1, a Deep Depression,  is now in the complex situation we had estimated it to be 4 days ago !...Recalling, we had discussed that by 26th, the system would be in this situation, and its track would be determined depending on the upper streams wind flow (See chart given on 22nd October )...

Today, AS-1 is trapped between the High in the NW and another in the SE...

Sunday Morning: Located at 14.2N and 63.0E, having moved NE. On Sunday morning it is at the second red spot in the Vagaries forecast chart (See below, NE of Saturday position).Its estimated core winds are at 35 knts. System has started showing a clear centre now in finer imageries. The trough in the 500 levels is expected to persist on Sunday.

Vagaries expects it to follow the forecasted track in Vagaries. { Do we see dry air "trying to encircle it ? This is a real testing system ! }
Next Update @ 3.30 pm IST..Sunday

Mumbai: Sunday will be cloudy and cooler at around 28c..few light to medium rain showers in parts. 
Pune: Overcast and light showers in the day. Some heavier showers in ceratin parts. Day will be around 22/23c.
Mahableshwar will be overcast and foggy, with some showers. Cold day.

Goa will be overcast with persisting rain. Rainfall will be less than past few days, but can expect around 50 mms by Monday morning. Cool day at around 28c.
See Vagaries Goa for Latest Updates



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Posted Saturday at 10.30 pm IST:

AS-1 moving along the track given below...as of now...on Saturday night located at 13.3N and 62.5E, thus having moved NE from previous location...Strength constant.
Next update 9.30 am IST Sunday..

Due to a trough in the 700 mb and 500 levels over Maharashtra, a huge mass of cloud has been attracted towards the inland areas....

Light rains ( between 3-10 mms) was measured in a number of cities, highest being 14 mms at Kolhapur.and cooling occurred..Some Maximum day temperatures of Maharastra cities on Saturday:
Mahableshwar 15.6c, Pune AP 22.9c, Satara 22.8c, Pune and Buldana 23.0c, Kolhapur 23.2c, Aurangabad 24.0c, 
Mumbai Colaba saw 28.5c and Scruz 29.0c.
Vagaries had predicted around 29c and a cold day not exceeding 25c for Pune.

Posted 25th October @ pm IST..

AS-1 is currently located as a Depression at 12.5N and 61.3E. Estimated core pressure at 1000 mb and estimated core winds at 30 knts..soon will be upgraded to a Deep Depression. The Upper level trough with strong westerlies have pulled in moisture over the Central India region from the circulation, and hence moved in medium to high clouds over the West Coast, N.I.Karnataka , Maharashtra , MP, Gujarat and Chattisgarh. See Image of Mid upper trough



As we discussed a few days back, the situation would get better (for judging the track) from 25th. 
It seems now, that AS-1 will somewhat follow our Vagaries track "B". 
Deep Depression would initially track NW, after a brief NE track) and most probably would go as far West as around 59/60E, where it encounters drier air mass, and re curve first NE and then E/NE towards Gujarat. As per current scenario, would estimate it to head as a cyclone ( Nilofer) towards Saurashtra tip, Okha /Dwarka. Maybe around 30th October. Current state of weather shows winds increasing to 70 knts in next 48 hrs.

Southern Oman gets heavy rains from Monday night thru Wednesday, as the system "skirts " the coast. Muscat can get showers on Tuesday

Mumbai is overcast with medium/High clouds, and occasional drizzles. Currently at 28c, which should be the max for the day. Expect some showers Saturday evening and Sunday. Should be decreasing from Sunday evening.
Pune getting frequent light showers also. Showers Saturday thru Sunday till Evening.

Vagaries Goa reports of torrential rains in Goa. Margao saw 123 mms, Quepem 60 mms and Panji 20 mms. till Saturday morning. More on Vagaries Goa.
Goa sees showers continuing till Tuesday.
  This is Vagaries' view and estimate, not binding, and not to be used for commercial purposes. 

 
3rd day of heavy unseasonal rains in Karnataka, ending 8.30 am on 26.10.2014
The depression intensified into a Deep Depression and lays about 1270 km west-southwest of Mumbai and 910 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It would move initially north-northwestwards during next 48 hours. It would intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours and into a severe cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours

in mm (min 60 mm)

Shirur - 163
Bachigondanahalli - 135
Bevoor - 130
Hampi Nagar - 127
Baad - 124
Inamhanchinal - 121
Karwar - 116
Koppal PTO - 106
Koppal - 105
Hudali - 99
Kinhal - 98
Joida - 98
Melur - 91
Tigadi - 91
Kandagal - 91
Santebennur - 90
Hunnur - 90
Santibastwad - 88
Kushtagi - 87
Honavar - 82
Hidkal Dam - 82
Babbur - 82
Hagaribommanahalli - 80
Ilkal - 80
Idagur - 80
Dhanagere - 80
Aversa - 79
Akheti - 76
Sunkasal - 76
Shivanasamudra - 76
Kadra - 75
Sankeshwar - 74
Belgaum - 74
Gunji - 73
Londa - 73
Hosur - 72
Madhurakhandi - 73
Sosale - 71
Pethammapur - 71
Jamakhandi - 70
Gokarana - 70
Kundapur - 70
MugutkanHubli - 69
Desur - 69
Ankola - 69
Katageri - 68
Nesargi - 68
Basgod - 67
Jagalbet - 67
Vajrahalli - 66
Belgaum AP - 65
Mudabidri - 65
Mudgal - 65
Ajjampura - 65
Tattihalla - 65
Khanapur - 64
Balale - 63
Channarayapatna - 62
Gangavathi - 62
Pradhani - 61
Dibburahalli - 61
Sankeshwar - 60
Kota - 60
Londa - 60
Holuru - 60
Tambur - 60
Sulebhavi - 60
Hukkeri - 60
Nagargali - 60
Bagalkot - 60
BP Dam - 60