Posted 25th June Tuesday:

The queer Monsoonal  behavior continues...
The Monsoon continues to progress teasingly and in jerks,having entered Southern parts of Interior Maharashtra but not Mumbai yet !
Vagaries is observing the UAC off the Maharashtra coast, which will form as an small east- west upper trough off North Konkan coast by Wednesday...And hopefully we advance the Monsoon into North Konkan on Wednesday (Including Mumbai & Pune).
Vagaries may advance Monsoon upto South Gujarat coast and South Saurashtra Coast along with..

The off shore trough will activate from Wednesday evening, bringing good rains to Konkan on Thursday /Friday.

Mumbai: After a disappointing Wednesday, Mumbai will see, with the arrival of the Monsoon, good and steady rains on Thursday ( Avg  25-35 mms) and Friday ( 45-55 mms). Some places in North Konkan may get 80-100 mms.
Gusty Monsoon winds on Thursday and Friday.
Much needed relief and rains for Thursday in Mumbai.

Much needed...as the Water situation is getting to be serious and worrisome..Mumbai lakes have now only 0.77 lmltrs ( 14.47 full capacity) of water storage..enough for 25 days. 

Pune too will see its famous "Pune rains" on Thursday thru Saturday.

Saurashtra region will get showers in some patches, and on Thursday, a few places may get heavy showers.

Officially as per IMD, Southwest Monsoon advances in most parts of Marathwada & Vidarbha region in Maharashtra

Under influence of UAC, Heavy Thunderstorm rain lashed  Madhya Maha, Marathwada & Vidarbha region!

Some rainfall in cm ending 8.30am today:

MADHYA MAHARASHTRA

06/23/2019: Kopargaon (dist Ahmednagar) 13, Nevasa (dist Ahmednagar) 7, Kagal (dist Kolhapur) 6, Pathardi (dist Ahmednagar) 6, Rahuri (dist Ahmednagar) 5, Shrigonda (dist Ahmednagar) 5, Bhusawal (dist Jalgaon) 3, Gaganbawada (dist Kolhapur) 3, Shirur Ghodnadi (dist Pune) 3, Gargoti /

Bhudargad (dist Kolhapur) 2, Daund (dist Pune) 2, Jamkhed (dist Ahmednagar) 2, Madha (dist Sholapur) 2, Kavathe Mahakal (dist Sangli) 2, Rahata (dist Ahmednagar) 2, Jamner (dist Jalgaon) 2, Shevgaon (dist Ahmednagar) 2, Ambegaon Ghodegaon (dist Pune) 2, Atpadi (dist Sangli) 2, Kolhapur/karvir Imd (dist Kolhapur) 2

MARATHWADA

06/23/2019: Phulambri (dist Aurangabad) 11, Gangapur (dist Aurangabad) 5, Bhokardan (dist Jalna) 5, Bhum (dist Osmanabad) 5, Vaijapur (dist Aurangabad) 4, Aurangabad Ap-imd Obsy (dist Aurangabad) 4, Badnapur (dist Jalna) 3, Khultabad (dist

Aurangabad) 3, Sillod (dist Aurangabad) 2, Soegaon (dist Aurangabad) 2, Patoda (dist Beed) 2

VIDARBHA

Armori (dist Gadchiroli) 4, Chikhli (dist

Buldhana) 3, Arni (dist Yeotmal) 3, SindkhedRaja (dist Buldhana) 3,

Malegaon (dist Washim) 3, Narkheda (dist Nagpur) 3, Mehkar (distBuldhana) 3, Jalgaon Jamod (dist Buldhana) 3, Shegaon (dist Buldhana) 3, Ner (dist Yeotmal) 3,Joiti (dist Chandrapur) 3, Morsi (dist Amraoti) 2, Buldana (dist Buldhana) 3, Shegaon (dist Buldhana) 3, Ner (dist Yeotmal) 3,Joiti (dist Chandrapur) 3, Morsi (dist Amraoti) 2, Buldana (dist Buldhana) 2, Amraoti (dist Amraoti)2, Sindewahi (dist Chandrapur) 2, Washim (dist Washim) 2, Ghatanji (dist Yeotmal) 2, Mangrulpir(dist Washim) 2, Bramhapuri (dist Chandrapur) 2, Balapur (dist Akola) 2, Wani (dist Yeotmal) 2,Sangrampur (dist Buldhana) 2, Chandrapur (dist Chandrapur) 2, Darwha (dist Yeotmal) 2,Nandgaonkazi (dist Amraoti) 2, Deolgaon Raja (dist Buldhana) 2

Data courtesy IMD

Udupi and Uttara Kannada continues to get heavy rains, Karnataka rainfall ending 8.30 am on 22.06.2019

Posted 21st June Evening:

The puzzle of the Monsoon continues ! After assurances, the Climate system is  not keeping up to its word ! :-)

Now, an UAC has formed on the West Bengal coast..it is not a Low Pressure area, and not descended.

The UAC, tilting South West with height, is expected to rapidly move West As a result:

Saturday 22nd: Rains in North Chattisgarh, Marathwada and parts of Madhya Maharashtra (Specially South).
Sunday 23rd: Heavy thunder showers activity in North Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and North Konkan.
Enhanced rain activity in Coastal and adjoining Karnatak.
Monday 24th: Rainfall and Thunder activity in Marathwada and North Madhya Maharastra. North Konkan will get thunder showers with possible Monsoon advance.

Mumbai: 
Saturday partly cloudy, warm and humid. High humidity levels will bring discomfort. Few passing showers in some parts.
Sunday: Chances of thunder activity developing evening/ night. Otherwise hot.

Monday: Chances of thunder clouds drifting from the East very likely...Thunder showers in evening , with strong gusty wind...more chances for Eastern Outer townships and Northern parts.
Vagaries estimates the monsoon likely to move into Mumbai and North Konkan on Monday.

Panvel and Roha will have a weak chance of thunder showers on Sunday and Monday. Chances of clouds building up and drifting from East over the region on Monday 

Pune: Chances of a thunder shower on late Saturday night..with strong winds, temperature likely to fall during the rains.
Sunday & Monday  will see good scope of a thunder shower in the afternoon/evening in Pune. 


Seems to be anther 3/4 days lull in the peninsula and Gujarat regions after Monday.

Aurangabad: Good scope of rains all over Marathwada on Saturday and Sunday. Aurangabad will get thunder showers on Both these days. Monsoon advance by Monday (Hopefully).

1st active monsoon spell in Maharashtra with Sindhudurg and Ratnagiri rocking with heavy rains

Posted ThursdayMorning:

South West Monsoon advances into South Konkan as  per Vagaries...Off shore trough and depth of SW winds established with good rain amounts
Jaitapur 200 mms, Rajapur 161 mms, Karwar 131 mms,  Pavas 128 mms, Lanja & Devgad 120 mms. , Gaganbavda 106 mms Ratnagiri 92 mms, Vengurla 96 mms, Patharpunj 79 mms. (Figs from Abhijit Modak)

Maharashtra under large deficient of -71% as of today

Normally South-West Monsoon covers Maharashtra by 12 June.. But this year officially, we yet to see onset over the state so this has lead to deficit climb till negative 71% 

Above map depicts Maharashtra conditions (district wise) till date.. Most are under large deficit

Maharashtra as whole map above

This maps depicts overall country situation which is on negative 43%

So due to non advance of SWM in Maharashtra and very less pre monsoon rains, Kharif sowing over large parts of state mainly in Marathwada & Vidarbha has been halted as yet!

Total Maharashtra State (All Dams) has just 6.29% live storage as on today !! Same day last year till today we had 18.98% storage ! So it shows how less water we have for current year due to bad monsoon in last Aug-Sep 2018.

Division wise storage as on today in % (in bracket for last yr):

Aurangabad 0.5% (15.66%)

Nashik 4.85% (14.43%)

Nagpur 5.66% (11.26%)

Pune 5.85% (18.87%)

Amravati 6.08% (11.8%)

Kokan 24.53% (33.68%)

From above we can get to know how Aurangabad division is worst hit with hardly any storage available in dams !

Jayakwadi dam (Paithan) is on 0% (last year same date had whopping 34.95% storage)

Also Manjara, Majalgaon,Yeldari, Siddeshwar, Lower Terna, Sina Kolegaon , Lower Dudhana are on 0%

Rainfall from Marathwada region till date for June 2019:

Aurangabad 13.8mm (deficit by -62mm)

Nanded 6mm (deficit by -73mm)  

Osmanabad 16mm (deficit by -78mm)

Kannad 1mm, Phulambri, Jalna, Khultabad,Sillod & Soegaon on 0 till date !

Data courtesy IMD & Water Dept, MH