Friday, September 22, 2017

Posted Friday Noon IST:
Mumbai City: Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Partly cloudy and sunny spells. Light rain in some parts of city. Days will be warmer.

Nagothane and surrounding regions may get some showers on Saturday /Sunday evening.
Pune: Thunder shower likely on Sunday.

BB-12 now over Central M.P. is precipitating good rains. Likely to fizzle out as expected. 
South West Monsoon Withdrawing from West Rajasthan and Punjab and Kutch. Soon from Saurashtra and Rajasthan.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Posted Wednesday 20th Night:

Mumbai:
Though Wednesday had frequent showers, the intensity and quantum was much less than Tuesday. Colaba received 75 mms and Scruz 61 mms in 12 hrs till Wednesday evening. (Vagaries had estimated 35-40 mms till Wednesday evening). 
With a further decrease in rains on Thursday, we may see a brighter day on Thursday with a few showers.
This could be the penultimate spell of showers for Mumbai of this Monsoon. 
I would venture out (though not an expert) to give a longer forecast for Mumbai. Mumbai may get its last and final thunder showers around 27th/28th September.

BB-12 has moved into East M.P. on Wednesday and would track West and fizzle out over West M.P. Heavy rains likely in West M.P. and adjoining East Gujarat region.

South West Monsoon withdrawing from Kutch, West Rajasthan and Punjab. Next phase rest Rajasthan and Saurashtra.

Tulsi Lake received 248 mms and Vihar 2200 mms till Wednesday Morning...All Lakes total above 3000 mms...
Total Lake Storage 14.28 Mcum out of 14.47 Mcum full capacity, 98% full.
Lake info from Vagarian Jayesh Mehta.




Special Ghats data by Vagarian Abhijit Modak


Posted Tuesday Night:

Torrential Rains lashing Mumbai post Afternoon 19th Tuesday.
Some of the figures are crossing 300 mms in the suburbs as shown earlier.

The Current Low (Vortex) over Mumbai will gradually weaken and fizzle out inland East of Mumbai by Wednesday Morning.

Hence, we can expect the rainfall over Mumbai to decrease in intensity Wednesday morning. Moderate intensity till morning. But less rains on Wednesday , and we can expect ( after Scruz recorded 225 mms and Colaba 169 mms till 11.30 pm IST) around 35-40 mms on Wednesday till evening, meaning a heavy shower or two possible. However, it will remain windy with gusts till evening. Otherwise, situation will be much under control with no prolonged heavy showers. 

BB-12 has moved inland into Odisha. Will track towards M.P. and first strengthen on land, but fizzle out suddenly over West M.P. 
Monsoon Withdrawal has commenced from Extreme Western parts of Rajasthan. 

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Mumbai ( North Konkan rains) ..
Stay tuned for more..

11 pm update :- Mumbai rains approaching 400 mms at some locations..very windy along the coast..

Borivli 352 mms,Andheri 253 mms ,Panvel 240 mms, Ghatkopar 182 mms , Dadar 175 mms as of 11 pm from 2 pm today and continuing..
..Colaba 142 mms

Most Mumbai  suburbs reporting over 100 mms ..Accompanied by wind gusts reaching 60 kmph and lightning/thunder

(Borivli data by Abhishek Apte / Panvel data by Junaid / Dadar data by Salil) --------------------------

Central Konkan rains -

Rainfall ending at 8:30am(19/09/2017) in Central Konkan region:-

Harnai:-374mm 
Dapoli:-253mm
Chiplun:-220mm
(Amboli:-215mm)
Jaitapur:-197mm
Dabhol:-175mm
Shirgaon:-171mm
Rajapur:-118mm
Guhagar:-115mm
(Vengurla:-113mm)
Ratnagiri:-95mm
Khed:-82mm
Mahad:-89mm
Pawas:-75mm
Mangaon:-50mm

(info from Abhishek Apte)

Sunday, September 17, 2017

As on Monday Night, The UAC descended as a weak Low and moved N/NE, slightly inland ..
Anticipation of rains on Monday may be late and less, but may not totally disappoint...From Early Tuesday will see frequent interval ed showers with strong winds...maybe around 50-70 mms on Tuesday -Tuesday Night....
(I hope the vagaries of the weather does not let us down now)
--------------------------------------------------

Monday 11.30 am IST Position of Trough and embedded UAC


Monday Morning Position of trough 





Best day for Kerala in the entire monsoon. Almost every inch of the state has reported good rainfall. At last, this year monsoon did not fail in Kerala after three years of failure.
Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 17.09.2017 in Kerala is enclosed. Neyyar dam down south is reaching full level.


Credit for Report: Pradeep John (PJ)

Saturday, September 16, 2017

Posted 16th Friday Noon (IST): 

Mumbai:
Saturday 16th: Cloudy day with showers, more towards Southern areas. Thunder Showers likely in late evening /Night. Some areas will get heavy showers. Amount of average rainfall on Saturday-Saturday  night will be around 40-50 mms.
Sunday 17th: Cloudy/maybe sunny periods in the morning. Thunder Showers later in the day. Heavy local patches may bring 50-60 mms in some areas.
Monday 18th: Cloudy with increase in rainfall. Intermittent showers with thunder. 
Monday 18th: Heavy Thunder showers in suburbs may bring patchy flooding in some vulnerable areas. 70-80 mms expected.  Monday being working day , hopefully no commuting problem should arise.
Tuesday 19th: Decrease in rainfall intensity.

Pune : Heavy showers expected on Monday. Cool day.

Heavy Rainfall expected in this time period in South Konkan.

Conditions apt for Withdrawal of South West Monsoon From Extreme West Rajasthan and Kutch in next 48 hrs.