Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Last burst of the South West Monsoon in South Konkan, south Madhya Maharashtra, Goa and costal Karnataka. Thunder showers on Tuesday /Wednesday and Thursday. 

Friday, October 12, 2018

Posted Friday Night:

Cyclone "Titli" went along its predicted path faithfully following  the models and our forecast.
Will move into West Bengal as a depression...

Some huge amounts (rainfall) from Titli assent by  Vagarian Mitan Batu from Bhubeneshwar

More than 110 places got more than 100 mm under the Influence of Cyclone Titli in Odisha. Extremely heavy rain lashed Odisha for the third consecutive day.Rainfall Ending today at 8.30am..
Min 100mm:-
Phulbani-201mm, Daspalla-197mm
Satyabadi-191mm, Tigidia-190mm
Niali-186mm, Kabisuryanagar-186mm
Bolgarh-183mm, R.Guda-180mm
Gottabarrage-175mm, Jaipur-172mm
Gosani-170mm, Banapur-169mm
Gania-169mm, Tikarpada-165mm
Bahapur-164mm, Athagarh-163mm
Jatani-155mm, Narsingpur-154mm
Odogaon-154mm,R udayagiri-152mm
Bhanjanagar-152mm, Baramul-152mm
Nayagarh-151mm, Raygada-149mm
Jaipur,-148mm, Delanga-147mm
Kotagarh-142mm, Nuagaon-142mm
Baramba-141mm, Krusnaprasad-141mm
Garadhapur-140mm, Padmavati-138mm
Kanas-135mm, Sherganda-130mm
Nimapara-130mm, Alaping-129mm
Odapada-126mm, Armpur-126mm
Mahanga-125mm. Begunia-125mm.
South West  Monsoon will withdraw as mentioned earlier...

Interior Maharashtra specially Marathwada  remains deficient...Kutch remains deficient. 
Mumbai will be warm and day temperature will be around 34/35c...hazy day.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Posted Wednesday 10th Evening:
                                                Current Storms all over the World !(JTWC)

The very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘TITLI’ moved northwestwards with a speed of about 18 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 10th October 2018 near Lat.17.2°N and Long. 85.5°E, about 230 km south­/southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha) and 190 km southeast of Kalingapatnam (Andhra Pradesh). 

The estimated core pressure is 975 mb and centre temperature -35c. Cloud region temperature is -74c. and estimated wind speed is 130-140 kmph Gusts 165 kmph.It is very likely to increase gradually becoming 140-150 kmph gusting to 165 kmph from
today, the 10th October 2018 night on wards along & off south Odisha & adjoining districts of north Andhra Pradesh coasts.Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting 70 kmph is very likely to commence along & off West Bengal coast from today afternoon and gradually increase to 60-70 kmph gusting 80 kmph from today night onwards.
The system will be moving NW now due to the STR in the NW of it. Drier air is also pushing the System Northwards at a faster pace.
Titli is expected to cross the coast of Odisha by 11th October. It will then curve NE along the coast.

South West Monsoon Likely to withdraw from the country by 15th October.

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm " Luban" over westcentral Arabian Sea moved northwestwards with a speed of 07
kmph during past six hours and lay centered at 1430 hrs IST 10th October 2018 over westcentral Arabian Sea,
near latitude 14.4°N and longitude 58.7°E. Estimated core pressure 968 mb and core temperature is +11c ...Estimated wind speed at 135-145 kmph.

Mumbai will be bearing up with the "October Heat"...Next 2/3 days will be around 35/36c and no meaning full cooling at night.
"October Heat" is not a new phenomena for Mumbai..In fact in October 2015 Scruz saw an all time high of 38.6c and in 1968, Colaba saw 39.4c in October. 
2018 October has seen 37.6c at Scruz, 2008 saw 37c. So, there is nothing like a specific "rising trend" to say so.

Saturday, October 06, 2018

Posted Monday Night:
AS-3, lets call it as Cyclone "Luban"is located at 12.5N and 61E, and with estimated core pressure at . Core is wrapped with a defined circulation,and estimated winds at 45 knts-55 knts. Two prominent STRs exist,one North east of the System over NW India, and another North West of the system over Saudi Arabia. The second STR becomes dominant and prevents the cyclone from going Northwards (which we said could happen) and will track towards South Oman/Yemen.
Will strengthen more.
Due to the above track changes, chances of some rain over Mumbai diminishes.
1/2 degrees drop in day temperatures expected.

BB-12, now a depression,is located at 14.3N and 88.2E. Tracking NW towards Odisha/W.Bengal coast. Favorable conditions for further strengthening. NW and N/NW movement will pull moisture away from coastal TN. 

As mentioned, Monsoon has not yet withdrawn from Karnataka Southwards. Vagaries has not announced any date for NEM commencement.

-A  WD is moving in,bringing rain and snow to Kashmir and HP, ushering in early October "heavy snowfall"
Posted Sunday Night:
AS-3,Deep Depression latest at 12.3n and 64.3E. Estimated winds 30 knts and estimate pressure 1000 mb.

Mid High pressure ridge along 16N can prevent the Northwards track,
and AS-3 could track W/NW towards South Oman.

Rain Swath as estimated by HWRF
Mumbai: Chances rain from Outer bands still possible for Tuesday/Wednesday.

Bay Low has formed, and is steering towards Odisha Coast. STR sems may prevent Southward track.

SouthWest Monsoon withdrawal will be stagnant for another 24 hrs.
Posted Saturday Night:

Depression formed in Arabian Sea, AS-3, located at 11.3N and 66.9E. Estimated core pressure at 1000 mb and estimated winds at 25-30 knts. 
System will track NW and intensify into Cyclone "Luban" by Monday. Will head towards Oman.Likely to reach Oman coast Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong winds and rains likely in South Oman from Tuesday.

6th October, South West Monsoon has withdrawn from Mumbai and withdrawal line shown below.
Withdrawal likely to be halted South of Goa for 2 days at this point .
As expected, Mumbai Scruz recorded 37.2c and Colaba 36.6c on Saturday...
Mumbai will be hot and dry (37c) on Sunday 7th and Monday 8th. 
On Tuesday 9th and Wednesday 10th, the outer bands of Cyclone Luban may bring some medium showers to Mumbai.
And along the Konkan coast.

A Low likely to form in East Central Bay around 8th. But this may not effect the Eastern Coast of India.

Thursday, October 04, 2018

South West Monsoon 2018 .. Toppers 

West India 

South India

North-East India

North Himalayan states 

East India

Central India 

North Indian plains

Thailand .. Trat 3503 mms 

few inputs from Abhijit Modak 

Sunday, September 30, 2018

    India’s State Capitals / UT Seasonal SWM Rainfall list from 01-06-2018 to 30-09-2018

Mumbai tops the list! Below is top to bottom State Capitals seasonal performance.
in mms

     1.  Mumbai, MH - 2240
     2.  Gangtok, SK - 2199                                    
     3.  Panaji, GA - 2133
     4.  Dehradun, UK - 2113
     5.  Silvassa, DN - 2057
     6.  Itanagar, AR - 1989
     7.  Port Blair, AN - 1800
     8.  Daman, DD - 1709
     9.  Bhubaneshwar, OD - 1567
     10. Aizawl, MZ - 1394
     11. Diu, DD - 1368
     12. Kohima, NL - 1317
     13. Shimla, HP - 1303
     14. Lucknow, UP - 1294
     15. Kolkata, WB - 1223
     16. Thiruvananthapuram, KL - 1168
     17. Shillong, ML - 1096
     18. Ranchi, JH - 1089
     19. Raipur, CG - 1077
     20. Chandigarh, HR -993
     21. Vijayawada, AP - 993
     22. Agartala, TR - 959
  23. Bhopal, MP - 807
  24. Guwahati, AS - 804
  25. New Delhi, DL - 757
  26. Ludhiana, PB - 686
  27. Imphal, MN - 686
  28. Jaipur, RJ - 625
  29. Patna, BR - 578
  30. Bengaluru, KA - 565
  31. Aminidivi, LD - 495
  32. Chennai, TN - 441
  33. Hyderabad, TS - 419
  34. Puducherry, PY - 369
  35. Gandhinagar, GJ - 346
  36. Srinagar, JK - 220

Few inputs helped by Vagarian Rohit

Data courtesy IMD

Last burst of the South West Monsoon in South Konkan, south Madhya Maharashtra, Goa and costal Karnataka. Thunder showers on Tuesday /Wedne...