Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Mumbai Water Supplying Lakes Position as on 6th on Mumbai Page

Posted Tuesday 6th Afternoon:
Mumbai: Getting warmer from Tuesday, and the day temperature can touch 36c on Wednesday.
Tuesday may just get thundery developments in the Eastern sky (weak), but chances of rains diminishing from Thursday.
Pune may get a Shower in some parts till Wednesday. 

The UAC in the South East Arabian Sea will descend as a Low by Tuesday night. Initially around 1006/1008 mb.
This will deepen by Wednesday 7th and Thursday 8th, and after tracking along the West coast of India till about 15N, may move towards NW.
Heavy Rainfall in Kerala, Coastal Karnatak and some regions of Goa on Tuesday 6th /Wednesday7th /Thursday8th.
Thunder showers a plenty for Bangalore all through this week.

The SWM has withdrawn in all regions North from Gujarat, M.P. North Chattisgarh and Bihar.

Alongwith this Arabian Sea Low, the Monsoon axis, both ends, will slip South of Maharastra. As the axis moves Southwards, the SWM starts retreating, and The NEM conditions start strengthening. See 200 stream chart.(Shall put up a note soon on NEM).

Chennai too will be seeing almost daily thunder showers this week.

The UAC over North Bay off Odisha coast has formed, but, due to un favourable land winds, may not intensify. System as an UAC will track North into Bangladesh by Thursday or Friday.
Kolkata may get the last thunder showers on Wednesday and Thursday.Monsoon could be withdrawn after the system dissolves.

New Delhi remains hot this week, around 36/37c. But we may see the nights getting cooler to around 20c by the weekend.

Monday, October 05, 2015

See Latest Storms and other Storms by Vagarian Salil on vagaries You Tube

Moderate Thunder Showers in Mumbai on Sunday night...and in some parts of Madhya Mah.

Mahableshwar 57 mms, Ahmadnagar 27 mms, Satara 14 mms, Kolhapur 11 mms, Mumbai (Vagaries) 8 mms, Colaba 4 mms, Mumbai Scruz 0.2 mms.

More Rain figures from Pradeep:
Rain continues for 3rd day in Maharashtra, ending 8.30 am on 05.10.2015 
Andhra - 115 
Sawargaon - 92 ,Belwandi - 85 ,Deshing - 84 
Dhom Balkawadi - 81 ,Wada - 79 ,Suratgaon - 77 ,Wadgaon Maval - 76 
Wadgaon - 76 ,,Amboli - 70 ,Lanja - 67 
Dahiwadi - 66 ,Hotagi - 65 ,Korti - 65 ,Panhala - 65 ,Adarki - 64 ,Nazara - 63 
Pangari - 62 ,Radhanagari - 62 ,Bhama Askhed - 61 ,Kodoli - 61 
Khadkala - 60 ,Wathar Station - 60 
Khatav - 60 ,Malwadi - 60 ,Wai - 60 ,Vita - 60 ,Andhali- 60 ,Khand - 60

AN UAC is prevailing in Bay off the Odisha coast, in fact, a bit to the Central Region of the Bay.
Another UAC has formed off the Karnataka. This is a result of the Easterly wave pushing a pulse westwards( which was explained few days back).The easterly wave still prevails to dominate the UAC.

This ( UAC) is to be observed, as it can descend to a Low. Tracking the Low, (when it forms) will be done. Now it seems it will track West..but will observe...will update tonite.
In lieu of this Karnatak coast will get heavy rains, with heavy falls in Goa.

The Monsoon axis runs from Southern Sindh (West end) towards the 20N line over Maharashtra. From Maharashtra, the axis runs due East along the 20N line and its Eastern end is over Myanmaar (again along the 20N line.)

Sunday, October 04, 2015

Mumbai had violent Thunder showers, on Saturday night 3rd October...some rain amounts around Mumbai...
by Vagarian Tejas)

Lakes supplying water to Mumbai also had good rains...Upper Vaitarna received 70 mms, Bhatsa 65 mms, Middle Vaitarna 45 mms, Tansa 37 mms, Tulshi 27 mms, Vihar 27 mms..
Mumbai Lake levels are now 80% full. Storage at 1152 Mcum.
At the rate of supply today, with 20% cut effective, we have 360 days water stock...or till about 30th September 2016.  
If full supply is resumed, we have about supply of about 300 days, or till end July 2016.
(Info from Vagarian Jayesh Mehta)

Barvi Dam supplying Thane and Eastern Townships, received 27 mms, and is 88% full .

Friday, October 02, 2015

Saturday Evening: Thunder Storms lashed many parts of Mumbai City and surrounding Townships...Some rain amounts till 8.30 pm IST Saturday:
Mumbai Central 81 mms (AWS), Sea Link 71 mms (AWS),
Dadar 69 mms (Pvt gauge of Vagarian Salil), Vagaries 55 mms, Deonar 62 mms. Borivali 17.5 mms (Pvt guage of Vagarian Tejas), 

Thane 44 mms (AWS), Panvel (Pvt gauge of Vagarian Junaid) 26 mms, Badlapur (Pvt gauge of Vagarian Abhijit) 71 mms.

Posted Friday Night:
Maharashtra :
Weekend (Saturday /Sunday 3rd/4th October) Estimate for:

Mumbai: Saturday and Sunday will see Thunder showers in many parts of the city and surrounding areas.
Rains reducing from Monday. Monsoon probably withdraws from Mumbai and Pune by around Thursday 8th October.
Pune: Thunder showers in the Late afternoon/evening,heavy in some parts of Pune. Rainfall around 20-25 mms per day.

Aurangabad and Akola Region will get a thunder shower in many areas on Saturday. Thunder shower restricted to a few places on Sunday. Rains reduce and decrease from Monday 5th October. Next week, day temperatures rise and hot days will be experienced.
Soil moisture reduces from Monday as drier winds take over with high temperatures (around 37c).

Heavy showers this weekend in Madhya Maharashtra.

Monsoon may withdraw from complete Maharashtra by 10th October.

Actual Monsoon Performance was 86% ( -14%).

Vagaries estimate on 2nd June (see here post of 2nd June) was 91% +_ 2%...amounting to 89%.
Slightly overestimated (By 3%).
After heavy overnight rains amounting to 64 mms, Belgaum again gets another 18 mms till 5.30 pm Friday..

Kolhapur 30 mms, Pune 20 mms (Pune AP 11 mms) and Mshwar 19 mms  till 5.30 pm Friday.

Posted Friday Morning:
Thunder showers expected on Friday evening in and around Mumbai.
Finally, Light thunder showers in Parts of Mumbai on Thursday evening...Vagaries measured 1.5 mms.
Along the Coast, Alibag saw 5 mms, Harnai 14 mms, Ratnagiri 19 mms and Vengurla 38 mms.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Monsoon (2015) and Monthly Update  Compiled by Vagarians for Mumbai and Surrounding Townships very well Depicted on Mumbai Page.

Vagaries Goa has Updated Goa Monsoon 2015 in Superb Format

Below Map from Rohit...More Maps of 2015 Monsoon Rains of Coastal Maharashtra and Coastal Karnataka on Rohit's Page..