Bumper rain in India in September despite of El Nino

Despite fear of El Nino, it is raining a lot in September in India. El Nino certainly on a vacation mode.

All India September rain is a whopping 15% above normal now (1-23 September)

Region-wise percentage distribution of rainfall this September till date:

Northwest India: -4% 

South India: +24%

Central India: +51%

East-Northeast India: -25% 

Nagpur Downpour....Cloudburst on 23rd between 2.30 am -3.30 am...98.5 mms at city AWS Railway station

24 hr Rainfall till 8.30am of 23-9-23

Nagpur city 176 mm, Sonegaon AP 117, Khapri 65

Upper Trough Southwards from BB-9 ( also seen in adjoining image put up yesterday) created heavy rainfall patches 

Mumbai Colaba 77 mms till 8.30. Saturday 23rd

Scruz 1.5 mm.

Uneven distribution is likely was mentioned on blog...as no proper streamlined westerly flow rains

Posted 22nd Afternoon:

* Low Pressure BB -9 now over Jharkhand.

* Monsoon Axis in Normal Position 

* Water Vapour showing significant reduction from extreme NW India, and the Jet Streams reversing to anti Monsoon seasonal directions estimated for 24th...

Indicative of  Monsoon Withdrawal commencing from West Rajasthan from 26th September..Normal Date 17th September

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*Mumbai: 

Fairly frequent rain showers with thunder this weekend, 23rd/24th.,some persistent rains in some areas, with thunder. Expect mist and reduced visibilities at times.

As on 22nd, the season's rainfall total is 2855 mms: {+632 mms} (Scruz), & 2163 mms{+162 mms}(Colaba).

With 8 days till month end, Mumbai Scruz has a chance of crossing the 3000 mms (120") mark this season. (IMD counts seasonal rains upto 30th September.)

This has been achieved 9 times since records began:

1) 1954: 3451.6 mms

2) 1958: 3759.7 mms

3) 1983: 3025 mms

4) 2005: 3289.2 mms

5) 2010:  3327.9 mms

6) 2011: 3154.8 mms

7) 2019: 3669.6 mms 

8) 2020: 3686.8 mms

9) 2021: 3163.5 mms

Figures Compiled by Vag. Abhijit Modak.

The Mumbai lakes and dams level reported at 6 am on 21st September 2023 is 1422269 ML (98 %).

Last year on 21st September 2022 was 1424647 ML (98 %).

In the year 2021 on 21st September 2021 was 1438850 ML (99 %).

Normally Monsoon withdrawal date for Mumbai is 8th October..As always maintained repeatedly, this year Mumbai  Monsoon will persist till at least 10th October.

Current El Nino..2023.

Many queries are cropping up on the "El Nino" topic ...Firstly, what is El Nino?

Simply put..An over heating of a tongue of water off the South American Coast.

Caution: All El Nino years may not necessarily mean a weak Monsoon, as seen in the chart below 👇

ONI & El Nino: Characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.

 La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. 

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

El Niño Advisory ...How is it shaping up ?

*El Niño conditions are observed.

* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Niño. 

*El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than a 95% chance through December 2023-February 2024).*

The Indian Summer Monsoon 2023 was partially affected by the current developing El Nino. 

The monsoon started off weak, with  June being -9%  July, impressed with +13% . August saw erratic activity, with -36% for the month.

So far this September, surplus is +9%,

All India Monsoon is at -7%.  Maybe a better picture will emerge by this month end...for the overall Monsoon Season. 

Region wise Monsoon Report till today 20th September:

The monsoon started off weak, with  June being -9%  July, impressed with +13% . August saw erratic activity, with -36% for the month.

So far this September, surplus is +9%,

All India Monsoon is at -7%.  Maybe a better picture will emerge by this month end...for the overall Monsoon Season. 

Now,  with multiple weather systems , BB-8, BB-9, UAC over Rajasthan, more showers across the country are expected this month.

The ongoing rainfall this month, is a blessing for the Summer crops, following the driest August in over a century. 

This year, the withdrawal date is delayed....Normally the Monsoon starts its reversal from Rajasthan on 17th September.

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Maharastra Monsoon upto 20th...👇

Mumbai: Next few days the current pattern will continue with occasional showers, some with thunder. Weekend forecast on Friday...

Interior Maharashtra   Many areas in Vidarbha, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra regions likely to get moderate rain/thundershowers over next 3 days. 

Rainfall may not be uniformly distributed

 Ch. Sambhajinagar can see moderate rain/thundershowers tomorrow 21st and Friday 22nd. 

25-45 mm total rainfall possible in these 2 days.

 19th September..evening 

*Low pressure BB 9, forms over NW Bay of Bengal.

*Rains to increase gradually over Odisha, Chattisgarh in the next 48-72 hrs. 

*BB 8, Cyclonic circulation continues to prevail over SW Rajasthan. Heavy rains to continue over parts of Kutch and Rajasthan. 

*Monsoon Trough remains active

Compiled by Vagarian Gokul

 Today's [ 18th] rain in ,Gujarat 

BB 8 continues in Gujarat...

Visavadar (junagadh) reported 185mm during last 4 hours ending 10am

And Kutch...😳

Posted 17th Night:

BB-8 continues its Westward track pouring extremely heavy rains in Rajasthan, M.P. and Gujarat.👇

Ahmedabad,Bharuch and Vadodara heavy rains were pre warned in Vagaries "Latest Snippet " yesterday. 

However, the "pull effect" Westerly winds towards the system from the Arabian Sea was weak (not enough gradient).Closely spaced isobars mean strong winds; widely spaced isobars mean lighter wind.

The Westerlies can strengthen a little bit as the location of the Low shifts towards Kutch

 

Hence the rainfall over North Konkan (Mumbai) was not as per our expectations.

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Mumbai did not receive the expected amount of rains due to poor Westerlies. We expected around 40 mms cumulative this weekend, but averaged around 30 mms between North and South Suburbs.

Monday 18th, will get some regional heavy showers. From 19th -22nd ( Rest of the week), we can expect showers in irregular intervals, not steady, in parts of city. Sunny  periods in between.

This pattern of rains will continue through the week.

Pune: The coming week will be partly cloudy with light rains in parts of Pune.

Sambhajinagar: Light to moderate rains will continue for the next 4 days. There will be no danger of fields getting waterlogged. Slight increase from 22nd.

Rainfall this season till today : Phulambri 384 mms ( 78%), Waddod Bazar 358 mms ( 73%)

संभाजीनगर : पुढील 4 दिवस हलका ते मध्यम पाऊस सुरू राहणार आहे. शेतात पाणी साचण्याचा धोका राहणार नाही. 22 पासून वाढ होण्याची शक्यता. या हंगामात आजपर्यंतचा पाऊस : फुलंब्री 384 मिमी (78%), वडोद बाजार 358 मिमी (73%)

Bharuch: After getting good rains ,( Netrang 52 mms, Bharuch 35 mms), the rainfall intensity will decrease from the coming week...18th onwards.

ભરૂચ: સારા વરસાદ પછી, (નેત્રંગ 52 મીમી, ભરૂચ 35 મીમી), વરસાદની તીવ્રતા આગામી સપ્તાહ...18મીથી ઘટશે.

Magnificent site..Sardar Sarovar  Overflowing...see here