Thursday, November 14, 2024

 14th November:

NEM consistency as of now...and overall conditions..

Analysis from Vagarian Gokul


Daily values of Nino 3.4 index have been exhibiting an overall increasing trend since the beginning of November with high frequency sub-weekly fluctuations. Current value is close to -0.5 . 



The observed trend may be partially related to the MJO activity over the western hemisphere during the same time period. 

Extended range forecasts of MJO from various global models indicate an eastward propagating signal of the large scale tropical wave with large uncertainty in the intensity estimates though.

The north east monsoon rains of south east India remained subdued during the past 2 weeks with negative rainfall anomalies growing across the region. Forecasts for the immediate week to come do not indicate any large scale rainfall that could compensate for these negative anomalies. 


On monthly timescales, a large region of intense suppressed convective anomalies have been observed over the equatorial Indian Ocean.
Images sourced from @TropicalTidbits @ECMWF 


 14th November 

Mumbai # 1 hottest in Maharashtra 

                #3 in India 


         Clouds from South moving into South Maharashtra 


Wednesday, November 13, 2024

 13th November...India hotspots

Mumbai 

# 1 in Maharashtra 

# 6 in India 


Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Posted Tuesday 12th Night (IST)

Now, the Low, BB 16 has formed off the Southern Coast of T.N. 

Not very distinct at 1008 hpa...likely to move west, and not deepen more.

However, with the system pushing West, the moisture and high/medium clouds already Persisting in the South, we can predict some cloudiness to push North into North Karnataka, Goa , South Madhya Maharashtra and South Konkan ( See images below) around 14th - 16th November 

Pune, Kolhapur, Satara, Mahabaleshwar: 14th - 16th November : Cloudy weather with nights getting warmer. Pune could see cloudy skies with lows around 19/20°. Light rains/drizzles possible.

Kolhapur may get light to moderate rains.

Mumbai: 14th - 16th: Weather getting cloudy. Nights will be stuffy and around 25/26°

South Konkan/Goa: 14th - 16th: cloudy and light to moderate rains or thundershowers possible.

Dharwad, Hubli, Belgaum: 14th -16th can also get light to moderate rains .


OLR IMAGE👇

Saturday, November 09, 2024

Review for next week's weather..Posted on Saturday 9th Night:

With the NE Monsoon awaiting the next Low from the Bay on around 12th, the Monsoon rains in T.N, may increase from 12th .

Meanwhile dry and unseasonably hot weather in North Peninsula and NW and Northern plains. The weather as is prevailing last few days in these regions may continue next week.


For Maharashtra and Gujarat, dry hot East winds will dominate to bring hot unseasonal temperatures.

Temperature Outlook for some cities next week:

Maharashtra :

Sambhajinagar : 32° - 15°

Pune: 31° - 15°

Mumbai: 35°-21°

Mahabaleshwar: 27° - 14°

Jalgaon: 33° - 15°

Gujarat:

Ahemadabad : 35° - 20°

Vadodra:  35° - 19°

Rajkot: 37° - 20°

Surat: 35° - 22°

Bharuch: 36° - 21°



Wednesday, November 06, 2024

 Full fledged La Nina unlikely during 2024-25 Indian Winter...

See Ashok Patel’s Article on Climatology Data page.

---------------------------

Smoky Skies Over the Indo-Gangetic Plain

November 3, 2024
Article on Author's page

  14th November: NEM consistency as of now...and overall conditions.. Analysis from Vagarian Gokul Daily values of Nino 3.4 index have been ...