Saturday, October 25, 2014

Posted Sunday Morning:

Sunday morning, AS-1, a Deep Depression,  is now in the complex situation we had estimated it to be 4 days ago !...Recalling, we had discussed that by 26th, the system would be in this situation, and its track would be determined depending on the upper streams wind flow (See chart given on 22nd October )...

Today, AS-1 is trapped between the High in the NW and another in the SE...

Sunday Morning: Located at 14.2N and 63.0E, having moved NE. On Sunday morning it is at the second red spot in the Vagaries forecast chart (See below, NE of Saturday position).Its estimated core winds are at 35 knts. System has started showing a clear centre now in finer imageries. The trough in the 500 levels is expected to persist on Sunday.

Vagaries expects it to follow the forecasted track in Vagaries. { Do we see dry air "trying to encircle it ? This is a real testing system ! }
Next Update @ 3.30 pm IST..Sunday

Mumbai: Sunday will be cloudy and cooler at around 28c..few light to medium rain showers in parts. 
Pune: Overcast and light showers in the day. Some heavier showers in ceratin parts. Day will be around 22/23c.
Mahableshwar will be overcast and foggy, with some showers. Cold day.

Goa will be overcast with persisting rain. Rainfall will be less than past few days, but can expect around 50 mms by Monday morning. Cool day at around 28c.



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Posted Saturday at 10.30 pm IST:

AS-1 moving along the track given below...as of now...on Saturday night located at 13.3N and 62.5E, thus having moved NE from previous location...Strength constant.
Next update 9.30 am IST Sunday..

Due to a trough in the 700 mb and 500 levels over Maharashtra, a huge mass of cloud has been attracted towards the inland areas....

Light rains ( between 3-10 mms) was measured in a number of cities, highest being 14 mms at Kolhapur.and cooling occurred..Some Maximum day temperatures of Maharastra cities on Saturday:
Mahableshwar 15.6c, Pune AP 22.9c, Satara 22.8c, Pune and Buldana 23.0c, Kolhapur 23.2c, Aurangabad 24.0c, 
Mumbai Colaba saw 28.5c and Scruz 29.0c.
Vagaries had predicted around 29c and a cold day not exceeding 25c for Pune.

Posted 25th October @ pm IST..

AS-1 is currently located as a Depression at 12.5N and 61.3E. Estimated core pressure at 1000 mb and estimated core winds at 30 knts..soon will be upgraded to a Deep Depression. The Upper level trough with strong westerlies have pulled in moisture over the Central India region from the circulation, and hence moved in medium to high clouds over the West Coast, N.I.Karnataka , Maharashtra , MP, Gujarat and Chattisgarh. See Image of Mid upper trough



As we discussed a few days back, the situation would get better (for judging the track) from 25th. 
It seems now, that AS-1 will somewhat follow our Vagaries track "B". 
Deep Depression would initially track NW, after a brief NE track) and most probably would go as far West as around 59/60E, where it encounters drier air mass, and re curve first NE and then E/NE towards Gujarat. As per current scenario, would estimate it to head as a cyclone ( Nilofer) towards Saurashtra tip, Okha /Dwarka. Maybe around 30th October. Current state of weather shows winds increasing to 70 knts in next 48 hrs.

Southern Oman gets heavy rains from Monday night thru Wednesday, as the system "skirts " the coast. Muscat can get showers on Tuesday

Mumbai is overcast with medium/High clouds, and occasional drizzles. Currently at 28c, which should be the max for the day. Expect some showers Saturday evening and Sunday. Should be decreasing from Sunday evening.
Pune getting frequent light showers also. Showers Saturday thru Sunday till Evening.

Vagaries Goa reports of torrential rains in Goa. Margao saw 123 mms, Quepem 60 mms and Panji 20 mms. till Saturday morning. More on Vagaries Goa.
Goa sees showers continuing till Tuesday.

This is Vagaries' view and estimate, not binding, and not to be used for commercial purposes. 

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Posted 23rd October:

A recap on yesterday's Post...tracking AS-1...

Same rule applies , wait till 25th/26th, and see the position and strength to determine the track.
Wind flow as predicted with AS-1 position as on 26th October...Suspected tracks.."A" "B" and "C"...

will be clear as per the AS-1 positon by 25th/26th...

some models have started showing a South bound track...why ? Heres why...and for this track its presumed to be influenced by the 500 winds. But, almost at 997 mb by 26th, it will will be "obeying" the 200 streams...


Mumbai: Should get relief showers from Friday night thru Saturday. Cooler day with rain on Saturday. Saturday Maximum should drop to 25/26c.

Pune: Cloudy with showers from Friday night thru Saturday. Cool day on Saturday, not exceeding 25c.


Mumbai Scruz records 37.2c on Diwali day..Dahanu 37.8c !!

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Posted Wednesday Night: Report on System in Arabian Sea....

A Low pressure has formed in the Arabian Sea , West of lakshdweep Islands, at 71 E and 11 N, as on Wednesday Night. Currently around 1008 mb.

The progress of the system is now divided in 2 phases:
1) Next 2 days, AS-1 is likely to deepen and move NW. This is possible as AS-1 is now at upper levels till 700 hp, but son reaches the higher levels at 250 hp...and would be guided by the jet streams and Wind shears between 850 p-200 hp.
AS-1 would move NW, or maybe N/NW till it raeches around the 15N Latitude. That means on about 25th evening, would be West off Goa, around 14N and 63E, at 1000 mb.

2) After 26th, we see a possible change. Since AS-1 has acheived greater heights, the track would be influenced by the jet straems. By then, possibly due to the circular effect, and greater wind shears, an anticyclone can form in the 200/150 hp levels. Result would be wind shears upto 40-60 knts. 

That would complicate matters....Now,  readers understand why 2 different tracks are estimated..understand this to avoid getting confused

Explaining in a very simple format:
depending on the exact location and strength, the system at that stage, 26th/27th  October, could be steered in either the NE from that location, or if "trapped" in the winds in the North, which are N/NW...See,Map of 200 level winds as estimated for 26th October... If Located at "A", or "B", the track would be as shown in "Red"...




AS-1 track at this stage is very difficult to estimate, and would be clear around the 25th, when the exact Location and 200 winds formations picture get very clear and defined.

Mumbai: The Maximum on Wednesday was 36.7c at Colaba and 37c at Scruz..27c as the minimum. The hot weather continues till Friday. Friday sees cloudy weather, and, in any case of AS-1 moving either way, Mumbai has some showers in store on 25th , with a welcome drop in day temperatures to 29/30c on Saturday...

Pune too has showers in store after Friday..Rains on Saturday and Sunday. Cold day on Saturday...

With the off shore trough along Eastern coast remaining intact, Chennai will continue to get frequent and occasional showers till Sunday.
Dear Vagarians, 

Happy Diwali and a Prosperous New Year...



Happy Weathering thru Vagaries...


Updating weather tonite (late) on Current weather page..

Monday, October 20, 2014

Mumbai Colaba sees a Hot Monday Night...On Tuesday Morning (21st), the Minimum recorded was 28.4c..In all likelihood the highest minimum EVER in October....Vagaries also saw 28.4c as minimum...

Posted Monday Night: Estimate for next few days

1. North East Monsoon continues to bring good rains to Tamil Nadu on Monday. Good rains likely to continue in TN and heavy rains in Kerala on Tuesday.
We see a decrease in rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday in TN. As mentioned in Vagaries earlier, NEM may remain sluggish till October end.

Chennai: Tuesday 21st and Wednesday 22nd (Deepavali) sees intermittent  showers in city. Rainfall decreases, leading to partly sunny days from Thursday 23rd/ Friday 24th.
Bangalore will be partly cloudy, with a range of 26c - 19/20c. Thunder showers possible in parts .

2. The current UAC in the Arabian Sea off SW Kerala coast, can descend to sea level and form a Low in the region by Tuesday evening. Though weak at 1008 mb, it may deepen slightly to 1006 mb by Wednesday or Thursday. Likely to precipitate moderate rains in Lakshdweep Islands and Kerala. Lot of resistance in the track of system.

Next few days will see heavy falls in coastal Karnataka also. Goa can expect a few patchy showers on around Divali days.

Mumbai: Tuesday 21st/Wednesday 22nd will be hot and stuffy. 35/36c.  No major cooling seen. Thundery developments in East, with very patchy rainfall possible in the East inland regions. 
Thursday 23rd: Divali day, will see thundery developments in the Eastern region. Possible of a thunder cell drifting over the city by evening. 
More rains expected on Friday 24th.

Pune: Tuesday 21st/Wednesday 22nd: Partly cloudy afternoon. Thunder shower in parts of city on Divali Day, 23rd. Thunder showers on 24th also possible.

3. Western Disturbance O-3 moves across from 24th thru 26th along Northern regions of Sub Continent. Precipitation in North Pakistan starting on 24th and moving into Kashmir and HP on 25th and 26th. Rains likely in North Punjab also.

Delhi NCR will be partly cloudy on 25th, with rise in night temperatures. Night temperatures otherwise around 17c.

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Chennai's wettest day in last 4 years, TN rainfall ending 8.30 am on 18.10.2014

 Trough along Extreme South Coast off TN and Sri Lanka with embedded UAC brings in the NEM...

The trough of low over southwest Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka coast now runs from Sri Lanka coast to Tamil Nadu coast with a cyclonic circulation alo ft over south Tamil Nadu coast and extends upto 3.1 kms a.s.l.

in mm (min 30 mm)

Chennai Marina DGP office - 181
Chennai City - 162
Lower Papanasam - 140
Papanasam Dam - 133
Pondicherry - 133
Anna University (Guindy) - 128
Sirkali - 128
Parangipettai - 127
Tuticorin - 122
Vedaranyam - 120
Ramnad  - 120 
Chennai AP - 115
Tharamani - 109
Kolapakkam - 108
Thoothukudi Port - 108
Nanguneri - 104
Tambaram - 100 
Ramanathapuram - 100 
Sethiathope - 100 
Chembarabakkam - 95
Alangulam -94
Sathyabama University (Sholinganallur) - 93
Manur - 86
Muthupet - 84 
Manalmedu - 81
Manimuthar - 75
Cuddalore - 74
Tirunelveli - 74
Krishnarayapuram - 73
Pamban - 72
Thiruvidaimaruthur - 72
Thiruparappu - 71
Vedasanadur TRS - 70
K.m.koil - 69
Kolli Dam - 68
Ambasamudram - 68
Chittar I - 68
Hindustan University (Kelambakkam) - 68
Palayamkottai - 67
Mayanur - 66
Puzhal - 66
Thiruvalangadu - 66
Chidambaram - 65
Servalar - 65
Radhapuram - 65
Srivaikuntam - 65
Adyamadai - 64
Kuzhithurai - 63 
Tirupuvanam - 61
Madukkur - 60
Meemisal - 60
Lower Anicut - 59
Needamangalam - 59
Vedasandur - 59
Panchapatti - 58
Dharapuram - 58
Mahabalipuram - 58
Chittar I - 58
Eachanviduthi - 58
Cheranmahadevi - 57
Poondi - 56
Red Hills - 54
Madavaram -  54
Dindigul - 54
Kallakudi - 54
Manjalar - 53 
Pechiparai - 52
Adirampatnam - 52
Marakkanam - 52
Mamelkudi - 51
Ponneri - 51
Surangudi - 51
Kelambakkam - 50 
Kodavasal - 50
Satankulam - 50
Kodimudiyar - 50
Tindivanam  - 50

Vadakku Pachchaiyar - 48
Tirunelveli - 48
Tiruvallur - 48
Ottapadiram - 48 
Lalgudi - 47
Kattukuppam - 46
Aduthurai - 46
Upper Bhavani - 45
Nagapattinam - 45
Rameswaram - 45
Kottapattu - 45
Tiruchirappalli AP - 45
Pattukottai - 44
Mayiladuthurai - 43
Thenkasi - 43 
Tondi - 42
Kayathar - 42 
Tirumayam - 41
Deviamanagalam - 41
Ennore - 41
Karuthancode - 40
Upper Kodayar - 40
Tiruchendur - 40
Thuckalay - 40
Trangambadi - 39
Kottaram - 38
Lower Kodayar - 38
Mannargudi - 37
Vettaikadu - 37
Sirukudi - 37
Korratur Anicut - 36
Poonamallee - 36 
Ayikudi - 36
Mylaudy - 35
Thalaignairu - 35
Anaikadangu - 35
Sholingur - 34
Ayyampettai - 34
Nagercoil - 33
Kurungulam - 33
Thammampatty - 33 
Pandavaiyar - 33
Mylam - 32
Neyveli - 32
Gundar - 32 
Manamadurai - 32
Coonoor - 31
Tiruvadanai - 31
K bridge - 30
Vathalai Anicut - 30
Vazhapadi - 30 
Mukurthy - 30
Cholavaram - 30
Tirukoilur - 30
Virudachalam - 30
Kodaikanal - 30
Karur - 30
Shencottah - 30
Musiri - 30
Kannimar - 30
Vanur - 30 
Ramanadhi- 30
Thirukuvalai -30
Karaikal - 30
Mazhaiyur - 30
Kulasekaharam - 30

Thunder Cells "seen" East of Mumbai and "patchy rains in Eastern outer townships as expected...Sunday...light rains in Northern Suburbs on Sunday...see pics on Mumbai Page

UAC off Kerala coast embedded in Western trough forms on Sunday...trough showing weak signs

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Another Edition of Vagaries...

In keeping up with the practice of encouraging young and enthusiastic meteorologists, Vagaries introduces another Edition to its growing list. "Vagaries Pakistan."

And the authorship is entrusted to Muhammad Waqas. He has shown great zeal in learning more about the intricacies  of the weather, and his method of writing and presentation has our approval. Based in Gujrat, Punjab, Pakistan, he will be in charge of the edition and will comply with our norms and perfect standards.

"Vagaries Pakistan" will keep us updated with the latest there, as well as give us useful and interesting past data through a separate page...

We hope to spread the awareness and basic knowledge of weather as much as possible...and this and other Vagaries' Editions are doing a very good job...
The Page is on the Vagaries Blog along with the other Editions..

LIFE CYCLE VIDEO OF TROPICAL CYCLONE "HUDHUD"..By Vagarian Santosh

Thunder Squall and Rains in Mahableshwar on Saturday Afternoon...26 mms as per AWS and tempdrops to 16c from 26c....