Friday, July 25, 2014

Posted Friday Night:

Saturday 26th :

A UAC formed in the North Bay off the Odisha/Bengal coast at 20N, is expected to persist, and slope SW with height.

Effectively, Gangatic W.Bengal may see heavy showers on Saturday. heavy falls may exceed 70 mms. 
Kolkata can expect cloudy weather and heavy falls on Saturday.

The Monsoon axis runs from Pakistan Punjab thru North Rajasthan thru North MP thru Jharkhand into the UAC.
So, we have isolated showers  along the axis. Nothing unusual or system type. NW and North India and Pakistan may see some showers. But we see nothing meaningful from any system. Showers will be in isolated pockets in Punjab and Haryana regions.
Showers of same type in Pak Punjab also.

West coast trough remains weak. All along West coast rains remain below normal and passing showers bring 20-30 mms.

Rainfall remains subdued in Southern Peninsula and Kerala.
The UAC in the Arabian Sea gets very weak and almost fizzles out by Saturday night. Some showers along the Sindh coast on Satursday.

Sunday 27th.

The UAC in the Bay persists. Rainfall continues in Gangatic West Bengal with possible spill over in adjoining Odisha.
West coast: Same as Saturday.

Sindh Pakistan: Rainfall decreases. North India/Pakistan and NW India: same as Saturday. Isolated showers, medium in some patches.

Saurashtra and Gujarat gets a break from heavy rains...nothing meaningful. Just 1-5 mms in places.

Mumbai: Saturday and Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with sunny periods. Passing showers. Rainfall around 20 mms/day.
Eastern Outer townships get sunny periods with passing showers, some heavy. showers will not be persistent and expected rainfall around 30 mms/day.
Pune: Partly cloudy with light rains in parts of city. Rains increasing from Wednesday next.

Re Published in Detail as required by readers:
Delhi NCR: Thunder shower expected on Sunday evening. Could precipitate 20-30 mms in parts.Thunder showers may spill into Monday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday NCR region, being in the axis path, will get the passing shower in patches . Meaning no system rains.
Punjab may get the slight increase in rains on Tuesday IF the impending WD effect slides down from North Pakistan to Indian Punjab.

Next week..28th - 1st August:

The current UAC in the North Bay will strengthen, and possibly descend to sea level by 29th July. This would effectively number it as BB-5. 
This would form by 29th July off the Odisha coast and track W/NW.
West coast rains pick up after Wednesday. Particularly heavy will be along the Karnataka coast.
Upper sindh and Punjab regions of Pakistan can get precipitation. Rainfall expected in many parts of Sindh and adjoining Punjab on Tuesday and Wednesday. Coastal and Southern Sindh will be almost dry.

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As forecast last week, Parts of SE Sindh get showers on Thursday and Friday. Karachi sees mild rains on Friday and Hyderabad 20 mms.Light rains like 3 mms in Nagarparkar and 2.4 mms in Mirpurkhas was measured.

Upper Punjab received very good showers. Islamabad measured 71 mms and Rawalpindi 54 mms in the day today (Friday).
Gujarat (Pakistan) received 14 mms till Friday morning.Temperatures are in the 29-24c range.

The UAC, remant of BB-4, tracked West as expected. Thursday Rains in MP were good, and measured 36 mms at Datia, 19 mms at Deobhog.
As forcasted on Sunday 20th, , Kutch region received heavy showers. On Thursday, Anjar got 81 mms, Gandhdham 65 mms, Bachau 62 mms. 
Also in North and central Gujarat, Kheda 122 mms Bavla got 116 mms, Sanand 90 mms, Danta 88 mms,  Dascroi 63 mms 
Saurashtra lso got some showers: Muli 166 mms, Lakhtar 120 mms, Malia Miana 117 mms, Chuda 112 mms,
In South coastal Gujarat, Bardoli 106 mms and Chorasiya and Palsana 68 mms.
All along expected lines...now what ?

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

As mentioned, rains are decreasing East of the system.
System will fade away around the North Gujarat area on Thursday. Rains for a day in North Gujarat and South Saurastra/ Gujarat.
 As the easterly upper winds from the fading system dominate and rush into the North Arabian Sea, another UAC forms on Thursday night in North Central Arabian Sea.
This was mentioned last week.

Mumbai will see a few retreating  showers from the system on Thursday before showing decreasing rains by evening on Friday.

Monday, July 21, 2014

Mawsynaram leads the All India SWM Rainfall Toppers from 01.06.2014 to 15.07.2014

This year SWM Toppers are giving a bleak picture compared to last 4 years race. The stand out performer is Mawsynaram which is leading the 2nd place Cherrapunji by 1000 mm, which is still in deficit. But the rains in Karnataka and Maharashtra have picked up after 15th July. Hence, watchout for the month end toppers. There would be drastic change in the toppers.

min 1500 mm

1. Mawsynaram, Meghayala  - 4450
2. Cherrapunji, Meghalaya - 3514
3. Talacauvery, Karnataka - 2311
4. Panbari, Assam, - 1950
5. Kuttiyadi, Kerala - 1928
6. Hulikal, Karnataka - 1909
7. Pookot, Kerala  - 1825
8. Gokarna, Karnataka - 1817
9. Suralbhi, Karnataka - 1770
10. Yadur, Karnataka - 1746
11. Agumbe, Karnataka - 1724
12. Mastikatte, Karnataka - 1723
13. Nilkund, Karnataka - 1708
14. Kogar, Karnataka - 1704
15. Mani Dam, Karnataka - 1652
16. Kollur, Karnataka - 1650
17. Bhagamandala, Karnataka - 1620
18. Pambla, Kerala - 1582
19. Malvan, Maharashtra - 1530
20. Margao, Goa - 1517
21. William Nagar, Meghlaya - 1502
22. Uloor II, Karnataka ~ 1500
23. Gersoppa, Karnataka ~ 1500
24. Amboli, Maharashtra ~ 1500
25. Rongo, West Bengal ~ 1500
26. Amagaon, Karnataka - 1445 (till 14th)

Sunday, July 20, 2014

Posted Sunday Night:

Major Developments:

Monday 21st: The current UAC over Odisha (on Sunday) is expected to track Westwards . The upper air trough subsequently formed, will guide the UAC westwards, and as it tracks west, it may form a Line of Wind discontinuity within the trough on Monday 21st. IF this materialises, then very heavy rains can be expected in Eastern/Central MP...roughly covering the regions around Jabalpur and Bhopal. 
Anyway, good precipitation is expected on Monday in Central MP and parts of adjoining Vidharbh.

Tuesday 22nd: The system tracks westwards towards West MP/Gujarat and SE Rajasthan.
Would expect heavy rains in Central MP and Bhopal and Ujjain regions. North Maharshtra sees an increase in rains.

Wednesday 23rd, we can most likely get rains in Northern Gujarat region and parts of Kutch. Saurashtra gets some showers along with Coastal South Gujarat.
Increase in rains along Konkan and Goa from Tuesday night.
Adjoining parts of SE Sindh becomes cloudy with some patches getting thunder showers.

The  areas East of the system gradually reducing in precipitation.

Mumbai gets some on/off showers on Monday. Tuesday evening rains increasing and Wednesday getting intermittent heavy showers. again, 30-40 mms on Tuesday night/Wednesday.75 mms in 2 days
Pune: Showers on Tuesday accumulating 12-15 mms in the day.

Delhi NCR will have to wait till Thursday for major meaningful rains to restart. Days may rise to 35c...next 2 days.

Couple of showers for Kolkata and rain generally decreasing.

Rains increasing again in Surat from Tuesday night.

Southern Peninsula (Bangalore) sees no major change next 3 days...maybe getting drier.

Pakistan: Sibbi was 44c on Sunday...so Balochstan and parts of Sindh still hot. 
After Monday 21st, till Wednesay, Parts of SE Sindh will be cloudy and in some patches thunder showers can be expected on Tuesday Night and Wednesday. 
Upper Punjab region of Pakistan adjoining Kashmir region may get isolated rains in some pockets .

Saturday, July 19, 2014

Updating Late Sunday Night..

All India Monsoon deficit as on 19th July: -32%

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Mumbai Lake Meter: 19th July: Total Storage 2.01 lmlt
Last year 9.33 lmlt and 2012 2.66 lmlt...Full Capacity 14.5 lmlt

Click on Picture


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Posted Friday 18th Night:

Saturday 19th
1. An UAC forms on Saturday in Saurashtra at 500 hp level. Due to adverse factors, will not last beyond evening hours on Saturday. 
Heavy rains likely in Central Saurashtra in the day. Heavy falls likely along the trough line, from North Gujarat thru SE Rajasthan and North MP upto West UP.
As the UAC forms, rains increase from Saturday night in Coastal and North Odisha. Some showers in Kolkata.

Sunday 20th
2.BB-4 as a surface Low may not materialise. In conjunction, a UAC takes form by Sunday morning off the Odisha coast. UAC will deepen and track westwards.
3. During Sunday, an upper air trough forms east west along the South Bengal/North Odisha/ Chattisgarh line.
Rains with heavy falls in East MP, North Odisha and Chattisgarh. Some medium rains in Haryana/Punjab (Thunder showers) and Northern regions of Vidharbh.
Southern W.Bengal and Kolkata can get showers in the day.

4. Sunday, again, dry air pushes from North into Pakistan and West Rajasthan and Kutch...bringing the UTH down.But SW surface winds continue in Gujarat, and taper off in Sindh coastline.
For Pakistan, Sunday, barring some rains in Upper Punjab and extreme North, rest regions almost dry. Dry and partly cloudy for Karachi. Temperatures rising again in Pak Punjab and Sindh ...with regions touching 45c in Sindh/Balochistan and 40c in some Punjab cities.

Surat: Saturday: Occasional showers, with a few spots getting heavy rain showers. Rain amounting to around 25-30 mms till Sunday morning.
Sunday will also see few showers in the day, some instant and brief in some areas. Rains decrease by night.
Rains increase next week from Tuesday or Wednesday. Can expect 100 mms next week.

Mumbai
Saturday will see few showers. Some will be heavy and with gusty winds. some areas will get brief spells. Rains amounting to aroud 25 mms. till Sunday morning.
Sunday will see occasional showers with sunny periods. Lesser rain than Saturday. 
Rains increasing next week from Tuesday or Wednesday. About 125-150 mms next week.
Goa also sees rain intensity increasing from Tuesday/Wednesday. May amount to 150 mms next week.

Pune : Saturday and Sunday will be partly cloudy with light rains amounting to upto 5 mms. Monday evening sees some moderate showers. Rains between Monday and Tuesday may amount to 15-20 mms. Decreasing from Wednesday.

Nagpur: Showers of heavy intensity from Sunday thru Monday. 2 days may accumulate 50-55 mms of rain.

Next Week 21st - 26th:

1. The UAC ( Result of BB-4), will track Westwards . Bringing as a result good rains in MP, North Maharshtra and Gujarat. 
2. But, almost no rainfall in Sindh, and Pak Punjab. We see a counter productive upper winds from the North.
These strong winds may force the UAC to fizzle out just before reaching Gujarat.
3. The West coast remains active till Sunday.
4. As the system moves West, the Northern part, Maharasthra Coast remains active till Wednesday. After Thursday, off shore trough goes weak.
South Interior Peninsula sees no meaningfull rains next week.

Heavy rains in Delhi NCR and North India on 25th Friday and 26th Saturday. 26th also sees rains covering Eastern India.
BB-4 will go as a UAC, but BB-5, next Low from Bay around 28th July...

Thursday, July 17, 2014



Weekend Forecast for Sub Continent and Mumbai...and long term next week summary ..coming up late tonite on Current weather page

Forecasted Rains in Delhi..See Current Weather Page

Mumbai Lakes levels as on 17th July ...Prepared by Jayesh Mehta
The lakes are 90% empty as per the final total ...1.45 lmltrs storage today against full capacity of 14.5  lmltrs...See Chart of each lake on Mumbai Page

MONSOON REPORT (1-7-2014 TO 15-7-2014)
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 15-7-2014) 180.5
SEASON +/- -40%
RAINFALL THIS FORTNIGHT (from 1-7-2014) 88.1 mm
TO ACHIEVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER          required per day------->    mm
MINIMUM                             700   mm 6.75
AVERAGE                            890   mm 9.21
MAXIMUM                          1100   mm 11.94
CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY  4.01 mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL PER DAY THIS FORTNIGHT 5.87 mm
REQUIRED PER DAY TO ACHIEVE JULY NORMAL (295 mm) 12.93 mm
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS FORTNIGHT    mm
KONKAN & GOA 542.1
COASTAL KARNATAKA 475.9
KERALA 313.8
A & N ISLAND 272.1
SHWB & SIKKIM 220.5
BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS FORTNIGHT     mm
PUNJAB 22.6
HAR. CHD & DELHI 20.8
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH 20.2
GUJARAT REGION 19.0
WEST RAJASTHAN 6.8
TOP THREE SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL (as on 15th July)    mm
RAYALASEEMA 10%
A & N ISLAND 10%
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERRY 10%
(ONLY THREE SUBDIVISIONS ARE ABOVE NORMAL TILL DATE
that is why I have given ten subdivisions that are below normal)
BOTTOM TEN SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL (as on 15th July)    mm
VIDARBHA -59%
WEST MADHYA PRADESH -59%
HAR. CHD & DELHI -62%
MADHYA MAHARASHTRA -64%
PUNJAB -66%
EAST RAJASTHAN -68%
WEST RAJASTHAN -72%
WEST U.P. -73%
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH -75%
GUJARAT REGION -89%
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS TILL 15TH JULY 5  (11%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS TILL 15TH JULY 40 (89%)
source -IMD



Outlook for Thursday 17th for Sub Continent posted on Wednesday 16th Night on Current Weather Page...