Sunday, October 04, 2015

Mumbai had violent Thunder showers, on Saturday night 3rd October...some rain amounts around Mumbai...
by Vagarian Tejas)

Lakes supplying water to Mumbai also had good rains...Upper Vaitarna received 70 mms, Bhatsa 65 mms, Middle Vaitarna 45 mms, Tansa 37 mms, Tulshi 27 mms, Vihar 27 mms..
Mumbai Lake levels are now 80% full. Storage at 1152 Mcum.
At the rate of supply today, with 20% cut effective, we have 360 days water stock...or till about 30th September 2016.  
If full supply is resumed, we have about supply of about 300 days, or till end July 2016.
(Info from Vagarian Jayesh Mehta)

Barvi Dam supplying Thane and Eastern Townships, received 27 mms, and is 88% full .

Friday, October 02, 2015

Saturday Evening: Thunder Storms lashed many parts of Mumbai City and surrounding Townships...Some rain amounts till 8.30 pm IST Saturday:
Mumbai Central 81 mms (AWS), Sea Link 71 mms (AWS),
Dadar 69 mms (Pvt gauge of Vagarian Salil), Vagaries 55 mms, Deonar 62 mms. Borivali 17.5 mms (Pvt guage of Vagarian Tejas), 

Thane 44 mms (AWS), Panvel (Pvt gauge of Vagarian Junaid) 26 mms, Badlapur (Pvt gauge of Vagarian Abhijit) 71 mms.

Posted Friday Night:
Maharashtra :
Weekend (Saturday /Sunday 3rd/4th October) Estimate for:

Mumbai: Saturday and Sunday will see Thunder showers in many parts of the city and surrounding areas.
Rains reducing from Monday. Monsoon probably withdraws from Mumbai and Pune by around Thursday 8th October.
Pune: Thunder showers in the Late afternoon/evening,heavy in some parts of Pune. Rainfall around 20-25 mms per day.

Aurangabad and Akola Region will get a thunder shower in many areas on Saturday. Thunder shower restricted to a few places on Sunday. Rains reduce and decrease from Monday 5th October. Next week, day temperatures rise and hot days will be experienced.
Soil moisture reduces from Monday as drier winds take over with high temperatures (around 37c).

Heavy showers this weekend in Madhya Maharashtra.

Monsoon may withdraw from complete Maharashtra by 10th October.

Actual Monsoon Performance was 86% ( -14%).

Vagaries estimate on 2nd June (see here post of 2nd June) was 91% +_ 2%...amounting to 89%.
Slightly overestimated (By 3%).
After heavy overnight rains amounting to 64 mms, Belgaum again gets another 18 mms till 5.30 pm Friday..

Kolhapur 30 mms, Pune 20 mms (Pune AP 11 mms) and Mshwar 19 mms  till 5.30 pm Friday.

Posted Friday Morning:
Thunder showers expected on Friday evening in and around Mumbai.
Finally, Light thunder showers in Parts of Mumbai on Thursday evening...Vagaries measured 1.5 mms.
Along the Coast, Alibag saw 5 mms, Harnai 14 mms, Ratnagiri 19 mms and Vengurla 38 mms.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Monsoon (2015) and Monthly Update  Compiled by Vagarians for Mumbai and Surrounding Townships very well Depicted on Mumbai Page.

Vagaries Goa has Updated Goa Monsoon 2015 in Superb Format

Below Map from Rohit...More Maps of 2015 Monsoon Rains of Coastal Maharashtra and Coastal Karnataka on Rohit's Page..

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

FINAL MONSOON REPORT (01-6-2015 TO 30-9-2015)

TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 30-9-2015) 760.6 mm
SEASON +/- -14%

RAINFALL PER DAY from 01-06-2015 to 30-9-2015  6.23 mm

                     CATEGORY WISE SUBDIVISIONAL (%)



               2015 RAINFALL IN PERSPECTIVE


Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Mumbai Santa Cruz Sees the Hottest Day Ever in September.. on 30th September 2015 ..recording 37.4c...Previous Highest was also on 30th september last year (2014) when the record broken was 37.0c..

An Upper Air Circulation has formed in the South-East Arabian Sea off the Kerala Coast.This will bring rains to Kerala on Wednesday.
This system  may be nudged towards the West.

The other Low in the Bay (mentioned in Tuesday Night Post below) will be "pushing " West into the Peninsula, and can enter the A.P./North T.N. coast as mentioned and track thru the Interior Peninsula..more of this later...

Posted Tuesday Night ( 29th):
Mumbai: While Vagaries had forecasted hot days from October 1st, the mercury impatiently has already risen to 36c at Santa Cruz on Tuesday 29th. A hot Wednesday again expected.
But, the expected thunder showers  seem to be in no hurry to arrive....Mumbai City and surrounding regions can expected Thunder showers in the current week itself, within a day or two. 
Then after the (last) spell of thunder showers, we can  consider the Monsoon withdrawal from Mumbai.

Apropos to our post of Friday 25th, The South West Monsoon has further withdrawn ( on 29th) from all regions North of the retreat line, which runs through from  Gujarat, West M.P. and into Uttarakhand covering West U.P.

Further withdrawal from M.P, North Chattisgarh, U.P. and Bihar will be in the next 2 days.

We wait for the Maharashtra withdrawal till end of the current week.

Also, as forecasted, an East West trough has fromed in the Bay, along the 12N line from the East coast of India into the Bay. A Low (1006 mb) has formed in the Andaman Sea, embedded in the trough. ( Not yet numbered).
We can expect the Low to track West along the trough, and bring rains along the North T.N. coast (including Chennai ) in the next 4 days.( Increase in rains on Thursday for Chennai)

Rain and thunder showers expected this week in South Konkan and Goa also. Next few days this week, thunder showers expected in South Madhya Maharashtra also.

Bangalore will get thunder showers next 2/3 days. Wednesday may see heavy showers, amounting to around 30 mms.

Besides Mumbai, Ratnagiri, Surat, Ahmadabad and Veraval aslo saw 36c on Tuesday 29th September.