Tuesday, September 16, 2014

 Vagaries of the Weather now on Twitter...Please follow @VagariesWeather

Anticyclone indicates first indications of SWM Withdrwal Signs in Sindh.





MONSOON REPORT (01-9-2014 TO 15-9-2014)  
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 15-9-2014) 724 mm
SEASON +/- -11%
RAINFALL THIS FORTNIGHT (from 1-9-2014) 134.2 mm
TO ACHIEVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER          required per day------->    mm
MINIMUM                            700   mm ACHIEVED
AVERAGE                                890   mm 11.07
MAXIMUM                          1100   mm 25.07
CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY  6.77 mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL PER DAY THIS FORTNIGHT 8.95 mm
REQUIRED PER DAY TO ACHIEVE SEP AVERAGE (174 mm) 2.65 mm
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS FORTNIGHT    mm
KONKAN & GOA 374.5
JAMMU & KASHMIR 310.1
A & N ISLAND 266.6
GUJARAT REGION 264.8
COASTAL KARNATAKA 258.5
BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS FORTNIGHT     mm
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH 59.0
S. I. KARNATAKA 47.2
N. I. KARNATAKA 35.8
RAYALASEEMA 27.1
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERRY 26.0
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL (1-6-2014 to 15-9-2014)   
S. I. KARNATAKA 20%
JAMMU & KASHMIR 17%
ODISHA 12%
KERALA 9%
EAST RAJASTHAN 4%
BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL (1-6-2014 to 15-9-2014)  
MARATHWADA -36%
EAST U.P. -40%
PUNJAB -47%
WEST U.P. -53%
HAR. CHD & DELHI -54%
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2014 to 15-9-2014)    36 (34%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2014 to 15-9-2014)    71 (66%)
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS IN SEPTEMBER SO FAR       9 (60%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS IN SEPTEMBER SO FAR      6 (40%)
 
source -IMD

Monday, September 15, 2014

Vagaries of the Weather now on Twitter...Please follow @VagariesWeather

Anticyclone indicates first indications of SWM Withdrwal Signs in Sindh.

Friday, September 12, 2014

Chicago was only 2 F degrees away from breaking a 124-year old record low this morning. Temps. dropped to a chilly 41F!

Rapid City only hit 39 F on Thursday, 39 F degrees below normal. Highs on Friday were a little warmer, 

As the skies clear..Rare September Fog in Punjab...pics sent by Arpit on Interactive Page

Record Heat Wave Predicted this Weekend in Southern California..see Below

Sub Continent Outlook for Weekend Saturday 13th and Sunday 14th:

Heavy rainfall likely in Eastern UP and adjoining Bihar and Jharkhand. Heavy rainfall also likely in adjoining plains regions of Nepal.
Rains spreading to West Bengal.
South from this rain region, rains likely in Odisha.

As an anti cyclone is developing in the NW regions of the sub continent, we may see a change in the winds pattern and direction. 
A bout of some scatterd rainfall is possible on Saturday in Central Sindh and Pak punjab.

The SWM may commence its withdrawal fron Sindh and Western Rajasthan around the 16th of this month. Punjab and Haryana withdrawal follows soon.
Day temperatures rise in Sindh from Monday 15th .

Mumbai: Partly cloudy and sunny spells. Warm day around 31c. Passing showers in different parts of city may add up to around 7- 10 mms/day.
Towering cumulus clouds develop by evening.

Pune: Saturday will be part ly cloudy and warm. Sunday may see towering cumulus clouds , with some showers in the outer regions.

New Delhi: Showers in parts of NCR developing on Saturday evening and night. Sunday would be cloudy and expect showers in different parts.

Kolkata: Would expect a slight increase in rains as thunder showers develop in Kolkata on Saturday evening. Sunday may also see some showers.

Bangalore may get a shower or thunder shower in some parts or vicinity on Saturday or Sunday.

Aurangabad: Partly cloudy and warm. Shower possible in some parts of ouetr regions like Phulambri, Khultabad or Verul. Thundery developments likely in the Eastern regions.

Record Heat Wave Predicted this Weekend in Southern California..


Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Referring to Vagaries' forecast for Friday...This Friday ( 12th) evening Sat image: Friday Rains in NE Madhya Pradesh and adjoining UP ..Pockets of heavy rain in Odisha also seen
Posted Wednesday 10th Night:


Mumbai: Several parts of city get heavy passing showers in the day. Mumbai can get around 20-25 mms on Thursday 11th. Rains frequency less on Friday.
Pune will be partly cloudy with very light rains in parts .

Delhi NCR: Thursday 11th and Friday 12th will be partly cloudy with the odd showers in the vicinity. Showers more prominent in many parts on Saturday 13th.

An trough runs from the SW coast of Gujarat through SE Rajasthan and then North-Eastwards.Due to the trough in the upper air, I see more rains in West UP and plains Utterakhand.
Plains of HP will get some pockets of showers on Thursday and Friday. Saturday will see only the local clouding.

As a result of the upper air trough, rains continue in SE and East Rajasthan through MP. Heavy North-East MP and adjoining West UP on Thursday and Friday. Decreasing on Friday.
Light rains in madhya Maharashtra, Interior Karnatak and Konkan.
Light showers along coastal AP and Odisha. Interior Odisha gets the odd heavy shower.
Some showers popping up in extreme North Pakistan. 

In Maharashtra, the night temperatures fell in some pockets. Osmanabad in Marathwada saw a low of 17.1c and Amraoti in Vidharbh 17.2c on Wednesday morning.




Wednesday Evening:..Delhi NCR experienced rains as forecasted in Sunday's Post...or at least many Parts of it...Reports of heavy rain in Gurgaon from Sahil and Meerut from Vineet. Yesterday too Arpit mentions of Rain..
Pics of Udaipur and Baroda on Interactive Page..

Tuesday, September 09, 2014


All India SWM Toppers from 01.06.2014 to 31.08.2014 (90 days into the monsoon)

The Mawsynaram still leads but Hulikal has closed the gap in September. Only one station has made it to the list from Kerala (Kuttiyadi) and Tamil Nadu (Chinnakallar).

in mm (min 4000 mm)
  1. Mawsynaram, Meghalaya - 7620
  2. Cherrapunji, Meghalaya - 6594
  3. Hulikal, Karnataka - 6453
  4. Agumbe, Karnataka - 6166
  5. Yadur, Karnataka - 6098
  6. Talacauvery, Karnataka - 6090
  7. Tamini, Maharashtra - 6070
  8. Mastikatte, Karnataka - 5972
  9. Nilkund, Karnataka - 5770
  10. Mani Dam, Karnataka - 5682
  11. Amboli, Maharashtra - 5418
  12. Kerekatte, Karnataka - 5398
  13. Mulshi, Maharashtra - 5355
  14. Cogar, Karnataka - 5343
  15. Kollur, Karnataka - 5329
  16. Suralbhi, Karnataka - 5191 (Till 13th August)
  17. Dawdi, Maharashtra - 5100
  18. Amgaon, Karnataka - 5062
  19. Kundal, Karnataka - 5042
  20. Bandal, Karnataka - 4852
  21. Hongadahalla, Karnataka - 4756
  22. Castle Rock, Karnataka - 4745
  23. Mahabaleshwar, Maharashtra - 4696
  24. Kitwade, Maharashtra - 4673
  25. Naladi, Karnataka - 4641 (Till 13th August)
  26. Hosakere,  Karnataka - 4600
  27. Aralagod, Karnataka - 4317 (Till 13th August)
  28. Kanakumbi, Karnataka - 4556 
  29. Gersoppa, Karnataka - 4546
  30. Kuttiyadi, Kerala - 4520
  31. Bhagamandala, Karnataka - 4450
  32. Gavali, Karnataka - 4387
  33. Dajipur, Maharashtra - 4363
  34. Gokarna, Karnataka - 4323
  35. Halageri, Karnataka - 4232
  36. Kigga, Karnataka - 4223
  37. Navaja, Maharashtra - 4220
  38. Koyna, Maharashtra - 4214
  39. Arendur, Karnataka - 4209
  40. Dungerwadi, Maharashtra - 4150
  41. Chinnakallar, Tamil Nadu - 4143
  42. Byakody, Karnataka - 4072
  43. Bhira, Maharashtra - 4007
  44. Ardi, Karnataka - 4000
  45. Kerveshe, Karnataka - 4000 

Karnataka Top 10 Rainfall from 01.06.2014 to 31.08.2014
  1. Hulikal - 6453
  2. Agumbe - 6166
  3. Yadur - 6098
  4. Talacauvery - 6090
  5. Mastikatte - 5972
  6. Nilkund - 5770
  7. Mani Dam - 5682
  8. Kerekatte - 5398
  9. Cogar - 5343
  10. Kollur - 5329 
 Maharashtra Top 10 Rainfall from 01.06.2014 to 31.08.2014
  1. Tamini - 6070
  2. Amboli - 5418
  3. Mulshi - 5355
  4. Dawdi - 5100
  5. Mahabaleshwar - 4696
  6. Kitwade - 4673
  7. Dajipur - 4363
  8. Navaja - 4220
  9. Koyna - 4214
  10. Dungerwadi - 4150
 Kerala Top 10 Rainfall from 01.06.2014 to 31.08.2014
  1. Kuttiyadi - 4520
  2. Pambla  - 3370
  3. Vadakara - 3080
  4. Vythri - 3000
  5. Irukkur - 2950
  6. Piravom - 2750
  7. Idukki, Idukki - 2680
  8. Neeriyamangalam - 2670
  9. Cheruthazam, Kannur - 2600
  10. Taliparamba, Kannur - 2550
 Goa Top 10 Rainfall from 01.06.2014 to 31.08.2014
  1. Valpoi - 3528
  2. Sanguem - 3468
  3. Margao  - 3127
  4. Canacona - 2933
  5. Sanquelim - 2738
  6. Ponda  - 2727
  7. Quepem - 2597
  8. Pernem - 2510
  9. Ela - 2350
  10. Mapusa - 2304

Sunday, September 07, 2014

Cool Days in Maharashtra on Monday 8th September:

Maximum Day Temperatures on Monday: Buldana 22.5c, Nasik 22.6c, Washim and Yeotmal 23.0c, Aurangabad 23.6c, Malegaon 24.0c, Amraoti 24.4c, Nanded 24.5c.

Posted Sunday 7th, Night:

1. Another UAC forms in the North Bay off Odisha Coast around 10th September...
2. Another UAC, or, the Western end of the existing UAC trough, forms around Okha/Dwarka in Western Saurahtra on 11th September...Will see the effect of this UAC in SE Sindh...
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Mumbai: Monday will be cloudy with showers increasing by night. Day will see showers amounting to around 20 mms. But Tuesday the rains increase to almost intermittent showers. Heavy showers in the day. Amount gauged will be around 75 mms. Rains intensity decreases to fewer showers on Wednesday. But cloudy on Wednesday with around 20 mms.
Heavier and more rains for Northern Outer townships on Tuesday.
Pune: Heavy showers from Monday night through Tuesday..maybe around 50-60 mms.

Delhi NCR: Light thunder shower likely in some parts on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Surat: Monday will be cloudy with showers amounting to around 15-20 mms. But increase in rains from Tuesday night, very heavy rainfall, and by Wednesday morning Surat can get around 60-70 mms.
Bharuch and Baroda will see thunder showers from Monday Night through Wednesday.

Karachi: Waiting till Thursday to see if Karachi gets some light rains from the UAC which may form.
Do we see absolute rain break in Islamabad ? Possible with day temperature showing a rise to 35/36c again.

See Kashmir Rains Records Below (from PJ)..and vagaries rainman 

Saturday, September 06, 2014






Jammu and Kashmir September 2014 Historic Rains
Place / Date 4th 5th 6th 7th Total
Katra 67 280 210 210 767
Kawa 64 152 260 136 612
Udhampur 493
Banihal 107 189 86 54 436
Jammu 40 101 218 77 436
Batote 102 210 120 432
Govindapura 71 202 102 27 402
Chatha 43 94 228 365
Rajpura Mandi 161 138 55 6 360
Khudwani 92 136 76 48 352
Shopian 68 140 85 54 347
Khulgam 82 138 77 48 345
Baderwah 81 140 100 321
Gulmarg 110 128 40 278
Malangapura 61 102 66 45 274
Kukernag 119 149 268
Phalgam 68 54 50 31 203
Anatnag 180 180
Baramullah 65 84 28 177
Bakore 166 166
Quazigund  157 157
Srinagar 52 49 23 23 147
Bandipora 50 72 22 144
Rambagh 51 52 18 19 140
Kupwara 46 70 10 126
Shalimar 53 53
Konibal 52 52
Awantipur 51 51
Samba  50 50
Rajouri 40 40

More Details on Kashmir Deluge in Vagaries Rainman 

SWM 2014 thus far. An brief Review....6th September

From a threatening -47% down to -12% today. The country has received 655 mms against a normal of 765 mms till date. Thats the overall All India Monsoon Position. Thanks to massive rains in Jammu Kashmir and Punjab last few days, the overall deficit has come to almost reasonable and "civilised" levels.In fact, a few more % points reduction and the dubious label of "drought" will be wiped out. IMD considers a drought year if the deficit falls below -10%. Seems likely to be covered this year.
India normally receives 890 mms in the 4 months of SWM season as a long term average.
Situation is far better than the worst year 2009. That year, the deficit at the end of the season was -23%.
But, still there are a few areas of concern. Punjab, UP and Marathwada amongst them. I would put it like this: the situation in these few regions is still far from being "drought free".Marathwada may see very good rains next few days from BB-8.
However, thinking positively, the late surge of rains in Punjab and Rajasthan and NW India, will benefit the rabi season immensely. It will be saturating the soil with sufficient soil moisture.

But, the water position may not be as comfortable. The overall water reservoir stocks is below normal,except in Central India. North ndia, which has seen the maximum shortage of adequate rainfall, sees the stock of reservoirs at 79% ( 93% last year) of full capacity. Eastern India stocks show 68% (75% last year) of full capacity. Western India 70% (76%) of capacity and South India 68% (81% last year. Central India is the lone zone seeing better than last year levels at 74% (58% last year).
The Overall country average is 71% ( 87%) of capacity against full level.

See Mumbai Page for Mumbai Monsoon Review and next few days forecast for Mumbai
BB-8, centred over Coastal Odisha Saturday evening, will deepen and track West initially on Sunday and Monday. Precipitation over Odisha , Chattisgarh and then into Vidharbh and Madhya Maharastra on Sunday/Monday.

Vagaries SWM Contest 2014

Congrats Puneet for taking the lead. Abhijeet and Chaudhary are very close at 2nd spot.

For the Month of August Rohit has topped the points.

Please check your points, in case of any corrections please msg to my FB message box.

The finale is there. Please participate and win your deserving certificates from Vagaries for the season ending Contest. Post your entries in the below link

Vagaries Season Ending contest 2014