Thursday, July 30, 2015

Friday 30th July Post (Night)...We have crossed 9.00,000 Hits .Thanks to All Vagarians 

BB-3, now a depression at 992 mb, is positioned in SE Bangladesh. Likely to track W/NW and weaken. Should weaken to 1000 mb by Sunday. 


An new embedded Low in the axis is likely to form in Central India by around 3rd/4th August.


As the erstwhile system in Rajasthan merges with the Monsoon axis, the Western end of the axis rapidly moves Northwards. Due to BB-3, the slope Eastwards of the axis is steep, sloping SE.


Friday 31st and Saturday 1st August..Heavy showers are likely in Kashmir, H.P. and Uttarakhand, Western U.P. and in Western Nepal. 

Rains increasing in both Punjabs on 1st August and continue on Sunday 2nd. 
(Gujrat in Pak Punjab gets increasing precipitation from Saturday. Saturday and Sunday showers will measure around 20 mms per day).

Heavy showers in Chattisgarh. Jharkhand and West Bengal.


Rainfall increasing (due to sectoral strengthening of the off shore trough) in South Konkan and Goa and Coastal Karnataka from Friday and effective thru till Monday.


Mumbai City: Friday and Saturday will see occasional showers, almost at regular intervals, and maybe accompanied with thunder. Friday may see around 25 mms and Saturday 20-25 mms. Sunday will see some sunny spells, with lesser frequency of showers, maybe around 15 mms.

Pune: Light drizzles in some areas, otherwise partly cloudy. 

Southern Punjab Region (Malout) will see a chance of rain on Friday, maybe around the region. Saturday will see more showers, with thunder, around 15 mms in the area. Sunday will be cloudy like Saturday with showers increasing to round 25-30 mms.


Kolkata: Having seen BB-3 weaken, and spread out its rain bands, the rain estimate for Kolkata needs revision. Showers on Friday & Saturday would average around 40-50 mms accumulated for the 2 days, and decreasing on Sunday.


Delhi NCR: Starting Friday, rains would be increasing on Saturday and more on Sunday. Chance of thunder showers on Saturday evening and Sunday, with cloudy skies and regular showers in the NCR.


Nagpur sees welcome rains starting from Sunday. Regular showers, some heavy can commence on Sunday and lead to heavy rains (40-50 mms) on Monday.

While Bangalore sees good chances of a thunder shower on Friday, Saturday, Hyderabad sees not much of rains this weekend.

North Konkan towns (Pen, Roha etc) will get passing showers amounting to 20-25 mms per day on Friday and Saturday, with rain intensity decreasing on Sunday.


Sudden Spurt of Unusual rains in Gujarat ..Bhuj and Ahmedabad Diagrams...See Current weather Page


See BB-3 making Landfall in Post Below..
Posted Thursday Evening:
"Cyclone Komen" has crossed the Southern Coast of Bangladesh Thursday late afternoon.

Moving North currently, it has weakened  


will track N/NW  soon as it encounters the STR.

Kolkata has received 14 mms till 5.30 pm IST .
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Posted Thursday Noon:
IMD has announced BB-3 as a cyclone, due to "Intense low pressure system represented on a synoptic chart by more than four closed isobars at  2 hPa interval."
The cyclone Komen (BB-3), now formed lies 95 kms South West of Chittagong (Bangladesh), and around 300 kms East-South East from Kolkata.

And the Monsoon winds have helped in the formation of strong South quadrant convection and strong winds in the southern quadrant.Estimated core winds at 40 knts (International reading) and estimated core pressure at 989/990 mb.
 

Landfall would be on target, by Thursday (Today) afternoon at the Bangladesh Southern Coast. Heavy rains along Bangladesh and W.Bengal coast as well as Odisha coast, with winds around 40-50 kmph.
 

The initial track is North (briefly) and then track would then be W.NW , and weakening would start as explained last night.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Posted Wednesday Night:

BB-3 a deep depression, lay almost in the same position , South off the coast of Bangladesh. Estimated core winds are 35 knts, and estimated core pressure at 990 mb. Very strong convective bands seen in Souther Quadrant.

Initially now, BB-3 will move North, into Bangladesh. Subsequently, it will move NW, due to interaction with Sub Tropical Ridge. This will start pushing in (comparatively) dry air around the system, and due to land interface, BB-3 will weaken gradually over West Bengal.

Expecting increasing rains in Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha. 

Kolkata will get frequent showers, some prolonged and heavy with gusty winds from Thursday thru Saturday.
Would expect accumulated rainfall amounting to 130-150 mms Thursday -Saturday.

Bhubaneshwar too would get frequent intensity rains, amounting to 80-100 mms from Thursday night thru Saturday.

Last 3 days rain totals after the downpour in Gujarat (compiled by Gaurav Raninga).



See Mumbai Page for Mumbai Water Storage and availability.

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Position as on Wednesday Morning:
BB-3
has been classified as a deep depression, seeing the pressure deficient and estimated 3 minute winds.BB-3, stationary as mentioned, is now having estimated core pressure of 994 mb and estimated core winds of 30 knts. Positioned at 21N and 90.5E.Though International model has informed of formation of Tropical Cyclone, there is no clear cyclonic structure seen. Thick convective cloud bands are visible in South, South West and South East Quadrants (due to warm moist air from Bay SST of 31c).


 Mumbai received 32 mms at Scruz and 21 mms at Colaba in last 24 hrs ended Wednesday morning.

Badlapur, Dadar and Borivali are private readings from Abhijit, Salil and Tejas.

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Mumbai received 28 mms (Scruz ) and 23 mms (Colaba) on Monday and 27 mms (Scruz)  and 19 mms (Colaba) on Tuesday.Averaging around the 20-25 mms estimated. 
Wednesday and Thursday will be similar, partly sunny and with some passing showers, may bring around 20-25 mms  per day.

As on Tuesday Night, The depression in Rajasthan was at the International Border, near SE Rajasthan and at 995 mb strength. The isobar bands were spiralled closely, and hence created very strong gusty winds in South Rajasthan, Gujarat and North Konkan.
System will weaken in the next 12-18 hrs from this posting, and a decrease in rains in Rajasthan, Saurashtra and Gujarat from Wednesday. Rains decreasing considerably in Sindh. (As mentioned earlier).

Colossal Rain Amounts till Tuesday morning in cms:

WEST RAJASTHAN:In cms
SANCHORE 24,RANIWADA SR 19,JALORE 18,BAGODA SR 18, JASWANTPURA 16,

EAST RAJASTHAN: In cms
MOUNT ABU 33,ABU ROAD SR 13,REODAR SR 12,VEJA SR 10

GUJARAT In mms:
DHANERA 435,WAV 416
DEESA 303,  BHABHAR 350, ,DANTIWADA 327,RADHANPUR 324, DEODAR 250
PALANPUR 218, UMERPADA 207, PATAN 206,SANTALPUR 199, Morbi 192,Tankara 184, SIDDHPUR 180, UNJHA 180,
VADGAM 180, Bodeli 171, MAHESANA 159, BECHARAJI 157,VAPI 114.
AMIRGADH 150, ,DANGS (AHWA) 142,GANDHINAGAR 105,QUANT 140,VANSDA 136.

KUTCH:In mms
NAKHATRANA 314,BHUJ 252,ANJAR 23,RAPAR 233,
KANDLA AIRPORT 190, KANDLA NEW 170,BHACHAU 146,GANDHIDHAM 142, Lakhpat 123.

In Kutch, Bhuj saw another 127 mms and Mandvi received 59 mms, and Naliya 36 mms in 9 hrs from 8.30 am Tuesday...
and Ahmedabad saw another 54 mms on Tuesday.
Bhuj now has a seasonal total rainfall of 520 mms (All in last 2 days)...against a annual normal of 360 mms !Nakhatrana, with a total of 433 mms, has crossed its normal annual rainfall of 390 mms.

Bharuch total rain as of today is 353 mms.
In Saurashtra the leaders , Bagasra, with a total of 893 mms (134% of Normal annual) and Gondal with an initial lead, ahead in total with 880 mms (140% of the annual)...

The Bay System, BB-3, remains stationary, and shows clear cut bands in the South as it strengthens. As expected, it will start its track from Thursday30th. After an impatient wait, I do not see much scope from BB-3.

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Monday Evening: Depression in Rajasthan has moved West, and lies on the International Border west of Jaisalmer...
On Monday, (from 8.30 am - 5.30 pm), Gandhinagar got 68 mms.

Today's (Monday) Rain:Mumbai Colaba received 14 mms and Santa Cruz 26 mms in 12 hrs fro 8.30 am Monday.
Bhuj received 108 mms in the same 12 hrs, ( taking the 36 hrs total to 180 mms in this desert town)..Ahmedabad 39 mms, Surat 14 mms.

Huge amounts of rainfall recorded in Rajasthan and Gujarat from the system...in cms...last 24 hrs ended 8.30 am IST Monday:
MOUNT ABU 45 (445 mms)
ABU ROAD SR 24,REODAR SR 21,ARTHUNA 19,SIROHI 15
GALIAKOT SR 12,DANPUR 11,BIJOLIYA SR 11,NAYANAGAR/BEAWAR 11,VEJA SR 11,BHAINSROADGARH SR 11

WEST RAJASTHAN: In CMS
GUDAMALANI SR 33,RANIWADA SR 32,JASWANTPURA 29,BHINMAL 22,BAGODA SR 18,BALI 17,CHOTAN 17,SINDERI SR 15
SANCHORE 15,DORIMANNA SR 13,DESURI 13,SUMERPUR SR 12,ERINPURA/JAWAI DAM 12,SAYLA SR 11

GUJARAT REGION:in cms
DADIAPADA_ARG 19,DHANERA 19,VAPI 18
MANSA 17,DAHEGAM 16,VIJAPUR 16,KANKREJ 16,VALIA 15,SIDDHPUR 15,SILVASSA 15,DANTIWADA 14
MANGROL 14,DANTA 14,VADGAM 13,HIMATANAGAR 13,PATAN 13,UNJHA 13,DHARAMPUR 13
AMIRGADH 13,GODHRA 13,PALANPUR 13,KAPRADA 12,MAHESANA 12,DANGS (AHWA) 12,KAMREJ 12,DEODAR 12

SAURASHTRA:In cms

JUNAGADH 19,JODIA 17,DASADA 15,BHESAN 14,JUNAGARH_AWS 13,MORBI 12,VANTHALI 12,VISAVADAR 12

Pakistan:
Karachi rains: Gulshan-e-Hadid 52, University Road 15, Faisal Base 20, Airport 14, Landhi 08, North Karachi 04, Saddar 03, Masror Base 02

BB-3 remains "in waiting" and as explained may start getting active after the other system in Western India starts weakening...Till then, BB-3 may stregthen in place.

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Rainfall Prominent amounts as on 24 hrs ended Monday 27th Morning:
Gujarat:
Valsad 99.0 mms, Deesa 98 mms, Gandhinagar 85.0 mms, Amreli 77.6 mms, Ahmedabad 72.3 mms, Bhuj 69.7 mms, Idar 59.4 mms,Vadodra 56.2 mms, Porbandar 55.6 mms, Surat 49.7 mms, Bhavnagar 39.1 mms, Rajkot 29.5 mms,
Sindh:
Sukkur 64.0 mms,Thatta 56.0 mms, Chorr 47.0 mms, Padidan 43.1 mms, Rohri 38.0 mmsHyderabad 28.9 mms, Dadu 26 mms, Nawabshah  24.9 mms, Karachi AP 14.4 mms, Badin 13.0 mms,


Weather on Sunday Evening:

1.The Low in Central India has deepened, and now a Well marked Low in East Rajasthan near Tonk. Likely to become a Depression and move West.
Very heavy rains likely in North Gujarat, parts of Kutch and adjoining South East Sindh. Can persist for 2 days Monday to Tuesday Night. Intensity decreasing in these regions from Tuesday Night as system weakens and dissolves.
Monday and Tuesday: Moderate rains likely in Saurashtra Region and East Gujarat Coast.

Mumbai: Monday and Tuesday see occasional showers. Rain amount will be around 20-25 mms/day.
Ahmadabad: Rains very frequent on Monday, decreasing on Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday accumulated rains around 100 mms.
Surat: Intermittent rain on Monday and decrease on Tuesday. Cumulative amount for 2 days around 70 mms.

Good heavy thunder showers, some very heavy, are likely in the Sindh regions of  Karachi, Hyderabad, Mirpur Khas and Sanghar. Rains will continue till Tuesday Night at least.
Around 70-75 mms on Monday and around 100 mms on Tuesday in regions of  Hyderabad, Mirpur Khas and Sanghar.
Heavy thunder rains in Sanghar region of Sindh on Monday. Tuesday also rains will continue, but a bit less.
Sukkar and Larkana gets moderate rains on Monday and Tuesday.

Karachi: Expecting very good showers for Karachi on Monday and Tuesday. Frequent rains on Monday should measure around 20 mms (avg), and again another 12-15 mms on Tuesday.


2. BB-3 is also strengthening fast, and having become a depression, is currently South of the Bangladesh Delta Region.

BB-3 now "in waiting",  will take course of track and strength seeing and depending on the behaviour of the other system in Western Sub Continent.
So, for the time being, as it waits for the other system to "shuttle out" , it will remain in the current position, and may just "shuffle around a bit" around the shores off Bengal. And of course, being a Bay system, will go on deepening.
Seeing the Western Depression, if it weakens around 29th, BB-3  may then start moving from the 30th towards the coast.

So, next few days, heavy rains along the Bangladesh, West Bengal and Northern Odisha coast. 

Chances of the usual Thunder showers in Kolkata..with increasing intensity, slightly, on Tuesday. Can expect around 25-30 mms on Monday and more on Tuesday. Further rainfall intensity will depend on BB-3, which in all likelihood, gears up on 29th/30th.

Delhi and North...all set up for hot days and almost dry from Monday..

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(Posted Sunday 6.30 pm IST) Sunday 9 hrs rain from 8.30 am onwards:
Kota 55 mms, Barmer 44 mms, Ahmadabad 36 mms, Jaisalmer 23 mms, Kolkata DumDum 20 mms, Surat 18 mms, Rajkot 13 mms.


Heavy Rainfall in the "Yellow" Region marked. Rain amounts in cms as on Sunday Morning:

WEST MADHYA PRADESH: in cms
Sarangpur 21, Ratlam (AWS) 20, Sailana 19, Biaora 17, Khilchipur 16, Lateri 15
Nalkheda 13, Rajgarh 12, Shujalpur 11, Susner 10, Narsingarh 9, Shajapur (AWS) 9

EAST RAJASTHAN: in cms
Aklera 24, Manohar Thana 22, Ramganjmandi 15, Jhalarapatan 14, Chipabarod 13, Jhalawar 12, Dug 11, Chabra 11
Asnawar 11, Bakani 9, Khanpur 8, Pachpahar 8, Danpur 8

GUJARAT REGION: in cms
Dharampur 18, Dadiapada (ARG) 18, Umerpada 17, Vyara 16, Valod 15, Songadh 14, Mahudha 14, Mahuva 13, Dabhoi 13
Pardi 11, Anand 11, Petlad 11, Mandvi 10, Sagbara 10, Ukai 10, Uchchhal 10
Matar 9, Mangrol 9, Dangs (Ahwa) 9
Umreth 9, Quant 9, Vansda 9, Bhabhar 8
Navsari 8, Kathalal 8, Dediapada 7, Nizer 7, Kaprada 7, Ankleshwer 7, 

Other Rainfall Regions with Heavy Rains.
In Kutch, Anjar got 16 cms.

Goa in cms
Dabolim N.A.S.- Navy 20, Marmugao 19, Ponda 17, Panjim 17 (Check Vagaries Goa for more)



Saturday, July 25, 2015

Synopsis of Saturday Night Weather:

1. Since the Central India UAC has formed a day in advance, and the UAC has further developed into a Low, the "Yellow" regions marked for Sunday also got advanced. The region got heavy rains in cms:  Ratlam­ 17;  Ujjain & Dhar­ 8 each; Indore, Bhopal & Shajapur ­5 each; Guna 3.


Likely to deepen and move towards West. Sunday: Very heavy rains in excess of 100 mms likely in West M.P, adjoining East Rajasthan and North Gujarat. Heavy rains in Rest of Gujarat region. 


Sunday: Ahmdabad gets heavy rains on Sunday, around >50 mms, Ujjain 45-50 mms. Bharuch will be cloudy with intermittent rains.


and Moderate rains in rest of Gujarat and North Konkan.

Sunday Mumbai City: Cloudy with frequent showers..some heavy. Rains around 35-40 mms (Avg)

2. BB-3 has also formed in the North Bay. Likely to remain Stationary and concentrate more to next stage. Sunday: Heavy rains likely in Coastal West Bengal and Coastal Bangladesh. Sunday:Kolkata, getting the usual showers, with rain around 30-40 mms.


3.For Sindh: We are watching this Low , and to see how much it can deepen. Factors like South Winds and Seasonal Low play a part in it. Shall give my estimate for Sindh in the Sunday post.

Meanwhile, heavy rains in Sindh, and intensity will be clear by Sunday..and will occur after Tuesday, if it is going to come.

Sunday Night, another report will be put up.