Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Posted Wednesday 13th Afternoon:

Western Disturbance F-2 is now almost over North India on Wednesday. Wednesday/Thursday will see the effect of an induced low forming over Rajasthan, and on Thursday/Friday the low attracts the Easterlies over North and Central India.
Resultant good rains/snow on Wednesday and Thursday in Kashmir, H.P, Uttarakahnad and rainfall in North Rajasthan, Haryana , Punjab and Delhi on Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday Friday sees rains in the North and Central India regions of M.P, Vidharbh.

Jabalpur gets showers on Friday 15th. Temperatures showing a fall after that on Sat/Sunday.
Nagpur gets light rains to showers on Friday.
Temperatures drop in North/NW and Central India on Saturday/Sunday.
West also sees a fall in temperatures on the weekend.
New Delhi will get showers or thunder showers on Thursday and Friday. Cooling the days. Around 15-30 mms expected in 2 days.

F-3 will be appearing around 18th over Pakistan, with rainfall possible in Sindh from it.
F-3 approaches India on 18th/19th with more rains in the North.

Mumbai: Wednesday Thursday will be warm at 34/35c with nights around 20c at Scruz. Gradual cooling from Friday 15th, with the days cooling down to below 29c and nights may register 15/16c at Scruz.

Pune: Warm on Wednesday and Thursday. Cooling from Friday with weekend touching 9/10c.

Sunday, February 10, 2019

If the Polar Vortex is due to Global Warming, Why are U.S. Cold Waves Decreasing?

January 31st, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

It’s much easier to devise and promote a climate change theory than it is to falsify it. Falsification requires a lot of data over a long period of time, something we don’t usually have in climate research.
The “polar vortex” is the deep cyclonic flow around a cold air mass generally covering the Arctic, Canada, and Northern Asia during winter. It is irregularly shaped, following the far-northern land masses, unlike it’s stratospheric cousin, which is often quite symmetric and centered on the North and South Poles.
For as long as we have had weather records (extending back into the 1800s), lobes of cold air rotating generally from west to east around the polar vortex sometimes extend down into the U.S. causing wild winter weather and general unpleasantness.
We used to call this process “weather”. Now it’s called “climate change”.

When these cold air outbreaks continued to menace the United States even as global warming has caused global average temperatures to creep upward, an explanation had to be found. After all, snow was supposed to be a thing of the past by now.

In other words, as the theory goes, global warming sometimes causes colder winters. This is what makes global warming theory so marvelously adaptable — it can explain anything.
In the wake of the current cold wave, John Christy skated into my office this morning with a plot of U.S. winter cold waves since the late 1800s. He grouped the results by region, and examined cold waves lasting a minimum of 2 days at a station, and 5 days at a station. The results were basically the same.
As can be seen in the plot below, there is no evidence in the data supporting the claim that decreasing Arctic sea ice in recent decades is causing more frequent displacement of cold winter air masses into the eastern U.S., at least through the winter of 2017-18:

The trend is markedly downward in the most recent 40 years (since 1979) which is the earliest we have reliable measurements of Arctic sea ice from satellite microwave radiometers (my specialty).
Now, I suppose that Arctic sea ice decline could have some influence. But weather is immensely complex. Cause and effect is often difficult to ascertain.
At a minimum we should demand good observational support for any specific claim. 
In this case I would say that the connection between Eastern U.S. cold waves and Arctic sea ice is speculative, at best.
Just like most theories of climate change.

Saturday, February 09, 2019

Today Mumbai sees coldest morning of this season and also witnesses 2nd lowest temp in last 6 yrs for Feb month.

Pune also witnessed coldest morning of this season & also sees 2nd lowest temp in last 6 yrs for Feb month.

Also was lowest temp of season in parts of North Kokan & Madhya MH region in Maharashtra.

Some temp info in map format:

Above map prepared by Tejas & Data input by Abhijit

Nashik district stations min temp for today (Below 5℃) (09-02-2019):

Khedgaon (Dindori) 1.6℃
Pimpri (Niphad) 2.3℃
Mokbhangi (Kalwan) 2.4℃
Deogaon (Niphad) 2.5℃
Dangsaudane (Baglan) 2.6℃
Niphad 3℃
Dangsaudane (Baglan) 4℃
Nashik 4℃ (Is 2nd lowest temp in last 10 yrs for Feb month)
Taked (Igatpuri) 4.1℃
Kalwan 4.2℃
Abhona (Kalwan) 4.3℃
Satana (Baglan) 4.4℃

Above info compiled by Vagarian Shivkumar

Data courtesy IMD & Mahavedh

Friday, February 08, 2019

Posted Friday 8th Morning:
Friday expected to be cool around 25/26c in the day. Saturday morning cold at around 12/13c. Day a couple of degrees higher at 28c. Sunday , again a bit warmer around 28/29c. 
Monday /Tuesday/Wednesday warm at around 33/34c, and nights rising to 19/20c.

Pune : Cool till Sunday, expected drop on Saturday to 8/9c. 
Next week warmer, with cloudy weather, and light rain in some parts on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Posted Wednesday 6th Morning:
Mumbai can expect cooler days and nights till Saturday. Pleasant weather from 7th-9th with temperature range between 27/28c and 13/14c at Scruz.
So, a pleasant period from Wednesday....
Pune too will get cold at 8/9c from Wednesday

Monday, February 04, 2019

Posted Monday 4th February Afternoon:

The February Western Disturbance, F-1, is approaching.Will bring precipitation rain/snow in Upper Pakistan on 4th/5th, with some rainfall in upper Sindh regions.

On 6th, F-1 moves into India via the Western Himalayan route. The intense W.D. will bring heavy amounts of rain/snow in Kashmir, H.P. and Uttarakhand on 6th and 7th, while actually commencing from 5th February. 
Induced Low and subsequent wind confluence will result in 
Rain, thunder  and hail  also in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and North Rajasthan and  U.P. on Wednesday 6th and Thursday 7th. With sharp drop in day temperatures.
Parts of Northern M.P. (Jabalpur- drop in day temperatures) will get light to medium rains on 7th.
Light rain expected in Vidharbh on 7th Thursday (Nagpur).

Warm and partly cloudy on Monday. Monday/Tuesday days likely to be around 32/33c, with lows at 19/20c.
From Wednesday 6th, Mumbai can expect cooler days and nights till Saturday. Pleasant weather from 7th-9th with temperature range between 27/28c and 13/14c at Scruz.
So, a  pleasant period from Wednesday....


Warm on Monday 4th and Tuesday 5th, with partly cloudy skies and a bit more humid. Days around 32c.
But, better from Wednesday thru Saturday, with days dropping to 26/27c and nights to 8/9c on Wednesday and Thursday.

Saturday, February 02, 2019

Mumbai Scruz Average January Temperatures comparing last 3 years:

2019 >>   Avg Max: 31.3c    Highest 35.5c and coolest day 27.2c
                 Avg Min: 15.9c    Coldest 13.2c and warmest Night 19.2c.

2018 >>   Avg Max:  31.6c    Highest 35.6c and coldest day  27.2c
                Avg Min:   17.1c    Coldest  13.6c and warmest Night  21.8c

2017 >>  Avg Max    31.9c       Highest 35.8c  and coldest day  27.8c

                Avg Min:   16.3c       Coldest 11.9c and warmest Night 19.4c.

Pune Average January Temperatures comparing last 3 years:

2019 >>    Avg Max: 30.2c       Highest 33.1c and coolest day  26.5c

                 Avg Min:  9.9c         Coldest 6.9c and warmest night  12.2c

2018 >>    Avg Max:  29.9c     Highest  33.4c and coldest day  27.5c

                 Avg Min:   12.2c      Coldest  9.9c adn warmest Night   16.2c

2017 >>    Avg Max: 29.8c       Highest 32.2c and  coldest day   27.5c

                 Avg Min:  11.2c        Coldest 7.4c  and warmest 15.2c

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Posted Tuesday Afternoon:  See Article Below

J-5 approaching from Tomorrow as mentioned...

Minimum Temperatures recorded on Tuesday 29th  Morning:
Churu -1.1c, Mt Abu 0.0c and Udaipur 2.8c, Pilani  2.5c.

Jammu and Kashmir:
Leh  -17c, Pahalgam  -14c, Gulamarg  -12c, Srinagar  -5.4c.

Keylong  -16c, Kalpa  -9c, Manali  -5.8c,   Kullu -1c,  Shimla  0.8c.

Punjab: Jalandhar & Kapurthala  1.0c, Amritsar 1.5c, 

Delhi Palam 5.1c, Sjung 5.4c.

Nagpur 6.5c, Nasik  7.0c, Ahmedngar 7.2c, Aurangabad 7.9c, 

Satna 0.8c, Umeria 2.3c , Panchmarhi 3.0c, Betul & Gwalior 3.8c, 


Inverse Hockey-Stick: climate related death risk for an individuals down 99% since 1920

Fewer and fewer people die from climate-related natural disasters.
This is clearly opposite of what you normally hear, but that is because we’re often just being told of one disaster after another – telling us how *many* events are happening. The number of reported events is increasing, but that is mainly due to better reporting, lower thresholds and better accessibility (the CNN effect). For instance, for Denmark, the database only shows events starting from 1976.
Instead, look at the number of dead per year, which is much harder to fudge. Given that these numbers fluctuate enormously from year to year (especially in the past, with huge droughts and floods in China), they are here presented as averages of each decade (1920-29, 1930-39 etc, with last decade as 2010-18). The data is from the most respected global database, the International Disaster Database. There is some uncertainty about complete reporting from early decades, which is why this graph starts in 1920, and if anything this uncertainty means the graph *underestimates* the reduction in deaths. 
Notice, this does *not* mean that there is no global warming or that possibly a climate signal could eventually lead to further deaths. Instead, it shows that our increased wealth and adaptive capacity has vastly outdone any negative impact from climate when it comes to human climate vulnerability.
Notice that the reduction in absolute deaths has happened while the global population has increased four-fold. The individual risk of dying from climate-related disasters has declined by 98.9%. Last year, fewer people died in climate disasters than at any point in the last three decades (1986 was a similarly fortunate year).
Somewhat surprisingly, while climate-related deaths have been declining strongly for 70 years, non-climate deaths have not seen a similar decline, and should probably get more of our attention.

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Posted Wednesday 13th Afternoon: Western Disturbance F-2 is now almost over North India on Wednesday. Wednesday/Thursday will see the eff...