Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Monsoon Watch- 2 (Abridged)...20th April 2021

1. Cross Equatorial Flow:


Indicator: Normal.

2. Seasonal Low

Core between 1006/1008 mb...Bit slow..but no problem..As mentioned, by end May/early June it normally should reach a low nadir of 994 mb in June in the Thar Desert, and with 1008mb in the South Arabian Sea, a perfect gradient is created to attract the south -west winds towards the coast.
The Line of Wind Discontinuity should normally stabilise around Central India perpendicular down into the Southern Peninsula by mid April. 
Weak now today.

Indicator: Normal.

3. ENSO;
he El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral, and with no sign of El Niño or La Niña developing, the ENSO Outlook is INACTIVE.
As explained before..La Nada.

Indicator: Neutral.

4. Bay Low:
4. The Bay has yet to host a pre monsoon low during  April. 
As discussed, we should normally see a low sometime after the 15th of April. 
Another factor, which helps the winds gain strength, and bring more moisture into the Indian landmass, is the sea temperatures on both sides of the Peninsula. 

No Low seen till Month End.
Indicator: _ve

Overall Summery: 3parametres Normal/Ok...1 Negative.

But, situations can change fast, and by the time we discuss the next MW, some factors can suddenly become +ve or -ve. So, MW discusses and follows the developments as they emerge, and discuss the parameters as is where is. 

No model can commit  today when the Monsoon can arrive. 
Quantum of rain forecasting in April for June right through September is an impossible task. Things get clearer by last week of April. Vagaries' (in MW) normally remains true to estimates around early May. 


Thursday, April 15, 2021

Posted 15th Morning:

Low Minimum temperatures  (Below Normal) recorded in Maharshtra,  on 15th Morning...To achieve good Monsoon April parameters, this Trend should not persist for more than 2 days.

Pune 17.1c, Mahableshwar  & Nasik  17.3c, , Satara 18.3c, Jalgaon & Jeur 19.0c, Malegaon 19.6c.

Aurangabad 18.7c ,  Parbhani 20.5c.

Vidharbh Temperatures, ver low by regional standards, as this region is normally the hottest....Wasim 18.2c, Amravati 18.5c, Buldana 20.2c, Wardha 20.6c, Nahpur 22.0c. 

(M.P.): Seoni 17.6c, Betul 18.7c, Indore 20.8c, 

(Gujarat) :Valsad 18.0c, Keshod 19.3c

(Telengana): Medak 16.8c (-6c), Mahabub nagar 18.4c (-7c)

Monday, April 12, 2021

 Posted 12th night

The Line of Wind Discontinuity continues to bring rains to Madhya Mah., coffee showers to Coorg and heavy showers to Goa & Kerala. 

Vagaries, had mentioned earlier of pre monsoon showers to commence from mid April. 

Forecast 13th -14th April ( contribution input by Vagarian Shreyas Dhavale.) 

Pre monsoon Thundershowers across Madhya Maharashtra (#Pune, #Satara, #Kolhapur, #Ahmednagar, #Solapur, #Sangli)

Marathwada (#Aurangabad, #Jalna, #Beed)

Vidarbha (#Nagpur & bordering districts) 

south konkan (#Ratnagiri, #Sindhudurg).

 Forecast for 13-14 April -  

#Goa, coastal & plateau regions of #Karnataka and most of #Kerala likely to get Thundershowers.

#Bangalore and interior #TamilNadu may witness a rainy second half of the week.

Mumbai: Stuffy, humid and sweaty. 

Cloudy with light drizzle in some parts by evenings. 

Posted on Monday evening 12th April, 2021

Pune district thunderstorm rainfall data from 8:30am-8:30pm on 12/04/2021:-






6.Wadgaon Sheri:16.5mm

7.Nira Deoghar:14mm







Saturday, April 10, 2021

 Monsoon Watch - 1... 2021...10th April 2021 (Abridged)

These reports are my personal views, study and observations. Estimates and forecasts are also my own calculations and views, and may/may not tally with any other estimates. This may not be used for commercial purposes. The author is not responsible for any commercial loss from this article, or this series of articles.

The Monsoon developments, as they unfold, will be analysed and discussed and explained in Vagaries. 

The South West Monsoon is just about 35 days away from its normal date of arrival from the shores of India ! Yes ! its just 35 days from the First touch of shores...Southern most point of India on the South Andaman Islands, Indira Point, where the normal arrival date is 15th May.

And its about time we start the follow up of its progress and monitor its developments. 

The Sub-Continent is eagerly awaiting its share of 2021 monsoon rains !

This annual series is a follow up and chasing of the South-West Monsoon.

 Every article in this series explains the synoptic situation as it actually is, and based on the day's position, the date and quantum of rains as on THIS SITUATION.

It is very important to firstly estimate the date of arrival of the South West Monsoon, as year to year, variations in dates of onset of the monsoon can occur and there have been several occasions in the past when the monsoon arrived over certain parts of the country about a fortnight earlier or later than the normal dates. The SWM has the  weatherman tearing at his hair for the exact date or time, extent and progress. This is never 100 per cent sure though various weather models are used to calculate this event.

Initially, in the first few parts, of this series will be chasing and closely following up the actual developments of the monsoon parameters, and analysing its progress regionally for calculating and estimating the arrival date. 

We are not yet contemplating the quantum of rains or the monsoon strength as yet. 

There are 2 parts to this article:

A)-This is the Ideal Conditions  During SWM Onset in Early June. 


B)below indicates the actual situation of the parameters situation today ( 10th April).


Very very briefly, let  us first understand, that the "power house" of our SWM is actually based far away in the southern Hemisphere. The main "generating factory" is the Mascarene Highs, between SE of the Madagascar coast and Australia. The SWM is born down South, 4000 kms from the Indian Mainland !
The proper formation of these "High" regions,(1032/1034 mb at least) will boost and create proper South East winds to lash the East African Coast near the Equator, and then turn perpendicular to South West in the Northern Hemisphere. 
And the formation of the "Tibetan High" is another factor. An anti-cyclone in the upper atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau. During the formation stages, there will be thunderstorm activity in the SE parts of Tibet during the months of April and May.

To generate a powerful SW wind, the cross equatorial flow must be strong and gusty. SW winds (ultimately upto 600 mb levels) then are capable of riding on the warmer Arabian Sea waters (Arabian Sea Branch of SWM) and bring cloud masses towards the West Coast of India. In the Bay, similar SW winds are generated (Bay branch of SWM), but from SE winds below the equator, just below Sri Lanka.

And to attract the SW winds, again, we need a good proper "seasonal low" to develop in the Sub-Continent. This seasonal low, normally should start forming around Barmer, Rajasthan, by mid April, and at its peak stretch upto Arabia. Seasonal low at its peak, in early June, should normally be around 994 mb, and the ridge around Kerala should be 1008/1010 mb. This enables a good gradient to pull the SWM Northwards along the coast and inland.

B)-In this initial stage, we will observe the basic root and foundation, the initial 4 parameters only, and the initial seed of the monsoon. From these parameters, later a few more develop.

1. Cross Equatorial Winds from Southern Hemisphere. -ve

2. Seasonal Low over India/Pakistan. :Indicator: Normal for this time.

1006/1008 mb

March weather (Guiding the Low)

The current Line of Wind Discontinuity from Vidharbh to Interior T.N. should stabilise from around Central India perpendicular down into the Southern Peninsula. This enhances the speed of the Seasonal Low formation. Normally is required to start taking shape for the monsoon by the second week of April. 

3. ENSO Status.: Weakening La Nina and in La Nada state Now.

Indicator: Normal Monsoon Expected ,except West Coast could  be above normal.

4. Pre Monsoon Low in the Bay.

Not expected till 20th April.

Summary: Tilted towards the normal, as of 10th April. Parameters analysed as of now show normal progress for Monsoon Advance on time.

New Readers, please note, These initial Parameters are normally (every year) considered in MW Series to gauge and estimate the arrival date of SWM, not strength. Time of arrival normally indicated in MW-3, and strength after 29th April. There are more parameters are to be considered, as and when they are developed and to be taken into consideration.

MW-2 on 22nd.April.

Monsoon Watch- 2 (Abridged)...20th April 2021 1. Cross Equatorial Flow:   Indicator: Normal. 2. Seasonal Low Core between 1006/1008 mb...Bit...