Saturday, September 20, 2014

The UAC from the Low (Low now fizzling out) remains over North Odisha, and expected to move North into the axis.

Very Heavy rain likely in North Bengal and Sikkim on Sunday and Monday. 
Chances of Local flooding and downstream flooding from Sikkim.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Follow up Posted Friday Night:
Low remains off the Odisha coast..almost same strength at 1000 mb..expected to merge with the UAC in the same region...

The jet streams are now almost fully Westerly up to almost 25N...currently 100 hPa , has its core is along Lat. 13°N with wind speed higher than 60 knots. During the week, the highest wind speed of 75 kts was recorded over Thiruvananthpuram at 150 & 146 hPa on 16th September.

Today, we also see a trough in the Westerlies in the North Pakistan region. That is why I mentioned yesterday a speedy withdrawal in NW India expected soon.
The Low in the Bay remains off the Odisha coast.

I would not like to comment now, but unofficially can say the Myanmar anti cyclone at 500 hpa ( Necessary for NEM advance winds).can be expected around the 10th of October...it needs certain parameters to form over the Bay to get started.


A 1 hour rainfall recorded 31 mms from 9 pm IST at Vagaries on Friday Night..
x--------------------------------x---------------------------------x-----------------------------x
Posted Thursday Night ( 18th September):

South West Monsoon is in the withdrawal process, and has withdrawn from West Rajasthan. A ridge formation, an anticyclone in the 200 hpa level, and surface winds from the NW bringing a sharp reduction in humidity ensures speedy withdrawal from Rajasthan, Kutch, Punjab, HP and Kashmir by  Saturday 20th September. 

Delhi NCR would see gusty NW winds from Saturday through Sunday. Warming up the day and sliding the night temperatures to around 23/24c.

Weekend will see hot days with day temperatures peaking at 43/44c in the Sindh region of Pakistan.
Days get hotter in Rajasthan and Kutch.

Friday/Saturday and Sunday
Contrary to this, rainfall may increase in West Bengal, with heavy falls. Odisha and AP continue to get the regular thunder showers. Increasing rains in Central and South interior Peninsula.

Mumbai City get  a cloudy morning. clouds forming in the day. Shower expected by evening in parts of city.
Rains low till 23rd,after which we may see some increase.
Similarly with Pune, low rainfall this weekend, increasing to heavy thunder showers after 23rd.

Kolkata may get thunder showers in the afternoon/evening this weekend.
Hyderabad , may benefit from a low coming after the 22nd. Thunder showers on 22nd and 23rd.
Possible of a heavy thunder shower in Bangalore on Friday/Saturday.


Glance into Vagaries' Long Term Forecast (probable):

A Low forms off the AP coast around 23rd/24th September. Seeing the scenario today, it seems due to the anticyclone in the North (by then), this system may cross into AP/TN coast, and cross into Karnataka. 
Thunder showers increase in the States of Maharashtra and Karnataka from 24th.
A slight chance, that this system may re emerge in the Arabian Sea around the 27th. Thunder showers continue in Maharashtra in that case.

A "strong" WD can be expected (seeing the trough possible in the North) around 26th/27th. If things work out well, the trough, and WD rains, can dip South till Central Sindh.

What do we wait ansd see ? What do we study in this case ? We have to monitor if a) the WD "pushes off" the Arabian Sea Low, or b) the system "pushes of" the WD.
In case of b), the system can move towards Gujarat.
These are Long Term probables, and I do not have definite answers to the outcome 

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Posted Wednesday Night:

Ridge over Extreme West Rajasthan and adjoining Pak indicates Withdrawal of Monsoon over Pakistan and Extreme West Rajasthan

Low persists in bay off Odisha/AP coast

Rains to increase in Southern Interior peninsula on Friday and Saturday.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Low Pressure forms in Bay off Odisha Coast. Not expected to track much. But associated UACs tilting SW will form an Upper air trough next 2 days, along Odisha and AP coast....Posted Tuesday Night.

SWM Winds changing fast in Sindh..Within a day N/NW winds will bring an end to Monsoon in Sindh and West Rajasthan..Posted 16th September Evening.

See Mumbai Page...for Mumbai Outlook See Rohit's Page for Mumbai and Maharashtra Analysis

Vagaries of the Weather now on Twitter...Please follow @VagariesWeather


MONSOON REPORT (01-9-2014 TO 15-9-2014)
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 15-9-2014) 724 mm
SEASON +/- -11%
RAINFALL THIS FORTNIGHT (from 1-9-2014) 134.2 mm
TO ACHIEVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER          required per day------->    mm
MINIMUM                            700   mm ACHIEVED
AVERAGE                                890   mm 11.07
MAXIMUM                          1100   mm 25.07
CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY  6.77 mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL PER DAY THIS FORTNIGHT 8.95 mm
REQUIRED PER DAY TO ACHIEVE SEP AVERAGE (174 mm) 2.65 mm
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS FORTNIGHT    mm
KONKAN & GOA 374.5
JAMMU & KASHMIR 310.1
A & N ISLAND 266.6
GUJARAT REGION 264.8
COASTAL KARNATAKA 258.5
BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS FORTNIGHT     mm
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH 59.0
S. I. KARNATAKA 47.2
N. I. KARNATAKA 35.8
RAYALASEEMA 27.1
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERRY 26.0
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL (1-6-2014 to 15-9-2014)   
S. I. KARNATAKA 20%
JAMMU & KASHMIR 17%
ODISHA 12%
KERALA 9%
EAST RAJASTHAN 4%
BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL (1-6-2014 to 15-9-2014)
MARATHWADA -36%
EAST U.P. -40%
PUNJAB -47%
WEST U.P. -53%
HAR. CHD & DELHI -54%
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2014 to 15-9-2014)    36 (34%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2014 to 15-9-2014)    71 (66%)
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS IN SEPTEMBER SO FAR       9 (60%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS IN SEPTEMBER SO FAR      6 (40%)
source -IMD

Monday, September 15, 2014

Vagaries of the Weather now on Twitter...Please follow @VagariesWeather

Anticyclone indicates first indications of SWM Withdrwal Signs in Sindh.

Friday, September 12, 2014

Chicago was only 2 F degrees away from breaking a 124-year old record low this morning. Temps. dropped to a chilly 41F!

Rapid City only hit 39 F on Thursday, 39 F degrees below normal. Highs on Friday were a little warmer, 

As the skies clear..Rare September Fog in Punjab...pics sent by Arpit on Interactive Page

Record Heat Wave Predicted this Weekend in Southern California..see Below

Sub Continent Outlook for Weekend Saturday 13th and Sunday 14th:

Heavy rainfall likely in Eastern UP and adjoining Bihar and Jharkhand. Heavy rainfall also likely in adjoining plains regions of Nepal.
Rains spreading to West Bengal.
South from this rain region, rains likely in Odisha.

As an anti cyclone is developing in the NW regions of the sub continent, we may see a change in the winds pattern and direction. 
A bout of some scatterd rainfall is possible on Saturday in Central Sindh and Pak punjab.

The SWM may commence its withdrawal fron Sindh and Western Rajasthan around the 16th of this month. Punjab and Haryana withdrawal follows soon.
Day temperatures rise in Sindh from Monday 15th .

Mumbai: Partly cloudy and sunny spells. Warm day around 31c. Passing showers in different parts of city may add up to around 7- 10 mms/day.
Towering cumulus clouds develop by evening.

Pune: Saturday will be part ly cloudy and warm. Sunday may see towering cumulus clouds , with some showers in the outer regions.

New Delhi: Showers in parts of NCR developing on Saturday evening and night. Sunday would be cloudy and expect showers in different parts.

Kolkata: Would expect a slight increase in rains as thunder showers develop in Kolkata on Saturday evening. Sunday may also see some showers.

Bangalore may get a shower or thunder shower in some parts or vicinity on Saturday or Sunday.

Aurangabad: Partly cloudy and warm. Shower possible in some parts of ouetr regions like Phulambri, Khultabad or Verul. Thundery developments likely in the Eastern regions.

Record Heat Wave Predicted this Weekend in Southern California..


Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Referring to Vagaries' forecast for Friday...This Friday ( 12th) evening Sat image: Friday Rains in NE Madhya Pradesh and adjoining UP ..Pockets of heavy rain in Odisha also seen
Posted Wednesday 10th Night:


Mumbai: Several parts of city get heavy passing showers in the day. Mumbai can get around 20-25 mms on Thursday 11th. Rains frequency less on Friday.
Pune will be partly cloudy with very light rains in parts .

Delhi NCR: Thursday 11th and Friday 12th will be partly cloudy with the odd showers in the vicinity. Showers more prominent in many parts on Saturday 13th.

An trough runs from the SW coast of Gujarat through SE Rajasthan and then North-Eastwards.Due to the trough in the upper air, I see more rains in West UP and plains Utterakhand.
Plains of HP will get some pockets of showers on Thursday and Friday. Saturday will see only the local clouding.

As a result of the upper air trough, rains continue in SE and East Rajasthan through MP. Heavy North-East MP and adjoining West UP on Thursday and Friday. Decreasing on Friday.
Light rains in madhya Maharashtra, Interior Karnatak and Konkan.
Light showers along coastal AP and Odisha. Interior Odisha gets the odd heavy shower.
Some showers popping up in extreme North Pakistan. 

In Maharashtra, the night temperatures fell in some pockets. Osmanabad in Marathwada saw a low of 17.1c and Amraoti in Vidharbh 17.2c on Wednesday morning.




Wednesday Evening:..Delhi NCR experienced rains as forecasted in Sunday's Post...or at least many Parts of it...Reports of heavy rain in Gurgaon from Sahil and Meerut from Vineet. Yesterday too Arpit mentions of Rain..
Pics of Udaipur and Baroda on Interactive Page..