Tuesday, June 30, 2015

June 2015: One Month of Monsoon from Starting date, and its covered India and parts of Eastern and South East Pakistan (see map >>>>>)

SWM enters Rajasthan ( See post Below) with heavy rains in cms as on Tuesday Morning: 
Bundi 11, Dug 9, Chothkabarwara Sr 8, Pipalda Sr 7, Nawa7, Hindoli 7, Talera Sr 7, Sanganer Tehsil Sr 7, Uniara / Aligarh 6, Jaipur Tehsil Sr 6, Bijoliya Sr 6, Ladnoo5, Didwana 3, Sujangarh 3, 


Overall Monsoon performance in India:
Seasonal Rainfall (in mm) from 1 June to 30 June, 2015
Region             Actual                   Normal                        % Departure from Long Period Average
All India             189.5                    163.6                                              16%

East & NE          352.7                    349.9                                               1%
Northwest           90.6                      69.1                                              31%
Central India      202.8                    164.3                                             23%
South Peninsula 189.2                    158.9                                             19%


North India Details for June available in Vagaries North.   

Vagaries Goa gives us Goa June details  

Konkan Details of June prepared by Vagarian Puneet Bangera


Mumbai Water supply Lakes Position on 30th June 2015:
In Mcum...Bhatsa  332, Vaitarna 89, Modak 68, Tansa 30, Vihar 8, Tulsi 5 and Middle Vairatna 122.

Total Storage 654..Presuming 33% for wastage, leakeges, Loss etc, we have 436 Mcum as storage usable. Source WRD Mah Govt..compiled by Jayesh Mehta
And taking a daily supply of 3.7 Mcum to Mumbai, Mumbai has 118 days supply available as on 30th June.

Monday, June 29, 2015

very well explained...and good information on Goa rains...histograms and charts depict well for easy understanding...See Vagaries Goa

SUNSET SKY SHOW:...30th June....See Space News Page

 South West Monsoon into Rajasthan and adjoining bordering Pakistan...Covers entire India
Favourable parameters like OLR, Surface and 850 winds and moisture


Posted Tuesday 29th Night:

Some Very heavy rain amounts from East U.P. as on Monday morning in cms

Mirzapur Tehsil 17
Ghorawal 13, Varanasi 12, Mirzapur Cwc 12, Varanasi AP 10, Deogaon Lalganj 10, Rajghat ( Cwc )9,
Gyanpur 9, Churk 8, Meja 7, Handia7, Chunar7,


Hottest place in India on 29th June was Ganganagar (Rajasthan) at 43.8c.

Hottest in Pakistan was Sibbi and Turbat at 47c.

An upper air WD brought some rains to Islamabad on Tuesday ( 4 mms).Pak Punjab region will get some showers on Wednesday, after which the WD moves eastwards.


For a couple of days from Tuesday 30th, the Axis tends to shift slightly South from Punjab thru North M.P. thru Jharkhand.

Spotty thunder showers will pop up along the axis and North of it next 2 days.

To get a Low forming in the Bay, we have the trough off the East coast getting formed by the 4th of July, and as a result we may see a Low at the Northern end of the trough off or along the Odisha coast around 5th July.


Heavy rain can occur in some places in West M.P. on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Showers will be seen in Ujjain and Indore on Tuesday and Wednesday.


Mumbai will be hot, but may get the localised thunder shower in some parts on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Saturday, June 27, 2015

Nothing much to change from the post below.....Break Monsoon conditions continue. The axis remains in the foothills of the Himalayas, and the rains continue now in Nepal, Sikkim and North Bengal.

Hotter days have started in Delhi NCR, with Palam touching 41.6c, Ayanagar 40.7c and Safdarjung 39.0c on Sunday. Amritsar was hot at  41.4c and Jaipur was 40.6c.
In Pakistan Nokkundi saw 47c, while Turbat and Sibbi were 45c, Nawabshah was 44c.  Islamabad soared to 39c.

Posted the article in Lokmat Times Monday Edtion for Marathwada and Akola regions...see Current Weather Page or
 Vagaries' article In Lokmat Times for Aurngabad and West Vidharbh Readers...Page 2
http://www.epaper.lokmat.com/lokmattimes/epapermain.aspx?queryed=78
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Posted Saturday Night:

-The Monsoon axis has shifted North to the Himalayan Foothills, thus creating a "break monsoon" Scenario.
-According to vagaries, the Winds and OLR show the Monsoon is yet to move into Rajasthan.
-Vagaries feels that with the Seasonal Low pressure now (Saturday) on a high at 998 mb, it is difficult for the Monsoon to move into Rajasthan not at least in the next 7 days. The seasonal core may drop to 994 mb by mid next week.

We see days getting hotter in the Sindh Pakistan region along with Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana and Delhi in the next 5 days.
Ahmadabad, with almost no rains, seeing days rise to almost 39c. Delhi may also see hotter days at 41/42c next week.

The West coast off shore trough remains weakish, bringing little rains in the next week (Next 5 days) to the West coast and almost dry for Gujarat.

The UAC in W.Bengal soon merges and dissolves in the Axis ...Rains likely in Bihar and East U.P. next 2 days. As rains will be effective in Nepal, we may see some downstream flooding in Bihar.

No organised system in Bay till 4th July at least.

Mumbai will be hot and parly cloudy, with sunny spells, and days rising to 33/34c on Sunday.Though next week, is hot and not much rains, Mumbai may see a localised convective thunder shower on Monday or Tuesday in some parts.

Kolkata, will be hot also around 36/37c, but may get a thunder shower by Wednesday or Thursday ( An embedded UAC in the eastern trough: temporary).

Pakistan remains hot and dry..(except for extreme North)....Days hot in Sindh , with peak temperatures touching 48c in Sindh and Balochistan.
Karachi will be sunny and dry, with Sunday /Monday touching 39/40c again. But sea breeze setting in next week will lower the days to around 36/37c.

Islamabad will be partly cloudy, and hotter next week. Mid week may see around 41c. Gujrat (Pakistan) will be very hot next week, touching 44c and warm nights at 33c !...before thunder showers cool down the city by Thursday..


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Posted Saturday Morning:

The Monsoon Axis has shifted North, running from Punjab thru U.P. and then into a Low pressure in Bangla Desh.
In view of this, the Westerlies are blowing South of the axis, and Easterlies in the North.
As a result, South West Monsoon has now covered all the regions , except Rajasthan (according to Vagaries) , as the Seasonal Low prevails over Pakistan.

The weak off shore trough of the West Coast hold good for next 2 days.
The west coast will get weak medium rains (weak as per the normal at this time) next 2 days.
Spotty rains likely in Odisha and adjoining W.Bengal, and adjoining East M.P.
Rains expected in Utterakhand, H.P, Northern U.P. adjoining Nepal and in Nepal.

Mumbai will have partly cloudy skies with sunny spells and few passing showers. Similarly, very little rains for Delhi and Kolkata.

Will put up more details tonite by 10.30 pm IST. (There was a break in my posting also :-)

Friday, June 26, 2015

Deep Depression Leaves trail of Destruction in Gujarat with Historic Rainfall


The Deep Depression made landfall over south Gujarat coast near Diu on 23rd June 2015 and dumped historic rainfal. Amreli district was the worst hit. Bagasra got its annual rainfall in one day. 

in mm

24.06.2015

Una - 324
Gir Gadhada - 288
Malia  - 269
Kodinar  - 225
Talala - 219
Rajula - 192
Diu  - 189
Rajkot  - 167


25.06.2015

Bagasra - 636
Dhari - 511
Variyav - 400
Vadia - 393
Gondal - 257
Lodhika  - 252
Palitana - 251
Wanakbori - 245
Kotdasangani  - 237
Malpur - 216
Vadali - 200
Shahera - 194
Bhiloda - 190
Khedbrahma - 189
Godhra - 184
Lathi  - 182
Amreli - 182
Bhavnagar - 182
Savarkundla - 180
Jessar - 180
Idar - 177
Surat - 177
Vallabhipur - 177
Umrala  - 164
Meghraj - 161


























Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Mumbai Lake Storage on Mumbai Page

Massive numbers in Maharashtra. While tracking DD, we forgot Maharashtra. Some preliminary figures of rainfall ending 8.30 am on 24.06.2015

Lamaj
- 475 mm
Tapola - 472 mm
Kitwade - 369 mm
Lonawala - 363 mm
Gavase - 337 mm
Shiragaon - 310 mm

Shiragaon now has got 1816 mm rainfall from June 1st. Apart from Cherrapunji and Mawsysnaram. Only Parsons valley has got better rainfall. Lamaj comes third at  1684 mm.
Posted Tuesday Night:

AS-2, after crossing Land, is now located as a depression at 21N and 71.5E, just SE of Amreli Town.
Expected to track NE towards Bhavnagar district and weaken into a WML by tomorrow.



Heavy rains and squally weather likely on Tuesday night in Saurashtra , South Gujarat Coast and N.Konkan.Very Heavy rains also likely in Saurashtra and commencing in parts of Kutch.
Rains likely on Tuesday night in Southern and SE Sindh.


Mumbai: Squally winds and periods of heavy rains likely on Tuesday night. Some downpours will be very heavy.

Some Gujarat high rain amounts ( Starters)from Pradeep John..Till 8.30 am (23.06.15)
Choryasi - 172 mm Olpad - 157 mm Kamrej - 141 mm Diu - 118 mm Ghogha - 110 mm Valod - 104 mm Surat - 103 mm


Posted Tuesday Evening..
AS-2 crosses Gujarat coast, near Diu, late afternoon.

In Gujarat, Veraval 37 mms, Vadodra saw 14 mms, Surat, Bhavnagar  and Valsad 9 mms till 5.30 pm.
Mumbai SCruz measured 45 mms and Colaba & Vagaries  19 mms. 
Next Post 10.30 pm IST

Posted Tuesday Afternoon 2 pm IST

Medium, heavy and very heavy rainfall expected over different parts of Saurashtra, Kutch, South Gujarat and North Konkan. Squally winds expected .


Posted Tuesday Morning

As a sudden change of directional track, AS-2, A depression in the Arabian Sea, has moved Eastwards in the previous 6 hrs. Post mid night (Monday), the system suddenly took course towards East ( tracking along with an upper air trough), and moved from 67.7E ( Last Night) to 70.1E by Tuesday morning....Vagaries of the Weather !!



System can now take a NE or E/NE course, and most likely strike the south Saurashtra coast within next 12-15hrs. Due to land proximity, it may not deepen very much now.
On crossing land, it will weaken.Strong winds and thunder showers likely along south Gujarat coastline and Saurashtra coastline. Dwarka, Porbandar, Veraval will have major impact.

In a sudden change of weather, Mumbai got strong gusty winds and thunder showers from 4.30 am  Tuesday, gusting to 54 kmph and periods of intermittent heavy rains. By 8.30 am, Santa Cruz had recorded 89 mms , creating a new all time high for June by touching a total 1039 mms. Colaba manged 70 mms.

Monday, June 22, 2015

Posted Monday Night:

AS-2 is (almost) stationary since our last posting at 19.9N and 68E. Core pressure estimated at 990 mb. Completely surrounded by moist and saturated air, and with favourable shear, system can deepen to 988 mb and now move Northwards next 12-18 hrs. Likely to cross the coast near the India/Pakistan border on 24th and move NE thereafter.

Moderate (Medium to heavy) rainfall is likely in all regions of Gujarat next 2 days. Heaviest falls in Western Saurashtra and Kutch on Wednesday 24th. 
Heavy falls  likely in Southern coastal Sindh and Karachi from Tuesday night. Central and Upper Sindh get thunder showers on Tuesday and Wednesday in many places. 

Interaction with WD and Moist East Monsoon winds will increase rainfall in Northern India and Pak Punjab after Wednesday 24th.

Ahmadabad will see rainfall increasing from Tuesday night, with Wednesday 24th and Thursday 25th  getting good showers, some heavy in the region and district. Very windy from Tuesday night or Wednesday, with winds around 40 kmph. Thundershowers may be heavy on Wednesday night or Thursday.

BB-1 has weakened, and now lies over North Chattisgarh as a Low. Since it is in the axis , embedded, we can consider it has merged now.

The Eastern Vidharbh region got good rainfall today, with Nagpur getting 53 mms and Washim 30 mms in the 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm IST Monday. 
Heavy rains were also recorded from East M.P. and Chattisgarh. Raipur saw 111 mms as on 8.30 am IST Monday.

As per Monday's showers forecast for Surat, the city received 40 mms till 8.30 pm Monday. Seeing Tuesday and Wednesday with regular showers with increasing frequency.  Estimating around 25 mms per day. Would also estimate increasing showers next 2 days in Bharuch.

South West Monsoon Moving into Gujarat, U.P. (See Map alongside for current Monsoon Updated Limit).
Monsoon expected in Delhi on 26th June (including H.P, Haryana and Punjab).

Mumbai Santa Cruz has reached a total of 954 mms as on Monday evening. The highest ever June total for Scruz is 1037 mms in 1971. 
Colaba has totaled 763  in the same period. The highest ever June total for Colaba is 1208 mms in 1985. 
Next 2 days, Tuesday and Wednesday, I would expect showers in Mumbai, shorter duration, but heavy at times. Not prolonged. Next 2 days, would expect around 75-90 mms cumulative.

Rainfall gradually increasing in Kolkata from Wednesday..
Monsoonal Precipitation in Delhi NCR from 25th, as Monsoon advances around 26th....and first day may see phenomenal heavy rain.