Friday, May 24, 2024

 23rd May

Twin LPAs present since morning, AS-1 and BB-1

AS-1 seems to be weakened.

BB-1 is well-marked and will intensify. More details on Bengal Coast cyclone chances soon. 

On forming, this will be the first cyclone of the year for entire northern hemisphere (Atlanic, WNP, EP, NIO)

Thursday, May 23, 2024

23rd Posting:

Rainfall in Kerala  from UAC ...Creating only " Pseudo Monsoon Effect"

Last 24 hrs:

Kozhikode AP 193mm

Kochi 137mm

Kochi AP 101mm

Alappuzha 122mm

Kozhikode 83mm

Thrissur 71mm

Kerala seeing heavy rains due to the UAC over south peninsula and Tamil Nadu region and wind convergence along the coast. 

Vagaries had mentioned this in our earlier forecast. 

While south tip of Kerala is seeing rain bands from West/Southwest, Central and North Kerala seeing thunderstorm-type rains with steering winds from the east.

Vagaries' thoughts regarding the present weather dynamics:

  • Although probably the IMD parameters for SWM onset may have been satisfied objectively (for Thiruvananthapuram region)...this westerly surge for south tip Kerala feels more like a pseudo onset type ...flared up due to the UAC.

  • Monsoon Vortex also absent, as Vortex should have "Depression" type wind isobars and Depth.

  • Note: The onset criteria do not consider this pull effect westerly surge...this is where the human element for analysis and large scale weather dynamics interpretation comes into picture
  • Winds at mid levels (600-700 hPa) are forecasted to reverse to North/Northeasterly for entire Kerala from tomorrow night. 
  • Usually after SWM onset, westerlies extend till a depth of 600 hPa and do not reverse in direction within 48 hours (mid-level winds can change in break phase, but not just after onset). 

  • So a more subjective analysis suggests the SW Monsoon to be at the doorstep of Indian mainland, having advanced to Maldives and most of Sri Lanka. 

.Kerala onset could happen around 29th May to 1st June time frame - may not be accompanied by heavy rains like what is observed now.

. Monsoon established over Sri Lanka.

Weekend Outlook 24th-27th:

Mumbai will see partly cloudy, muggy weather with humid days at 35c and warm stuffy nights at 28c. Few localized passing showers possible in MMR region and near Ghats due to strengthening westerly winds and increased clouding in evening/early morning hours.

Heavier Pre monsoon showers (which may add to the humidity) can start from early June. Proper Monsoon onset around 10th June.

Pune: Hot days at 38/39c, with cloudiness increasing by afternoon. Pre Monsoon showers in 1st week of June.

Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Wednesday 6.30 pm IST

22nd May..

Mumbai sees 29.6c minimum. Same as on 25-5-2015....not a record Mumbai record highest minimum is 30.2c in 31-5-2015

On 18th/19th/20th/21st/22nd, Mumbai Santacruz saw 5 continuous minimum temperatures, (or nights), of 29°c. and 29.6c on 22nd....Which This, according to Vagaries' archives, would be a record. 

29.6c Minimum was also seen in 25-5-2015... Incidentally it s not the record but the 7th Highest minimum as per records. 

Pune saw a minimum of 27.3c...Highest after 1985....Pune Record minimum is 29.4c in 1979.


South West Monsoon 2024:

Sri Lanka Meteorological  Dept. Report 👇


Issued at 12.00 noon on 22 May 2024

The Southwest monsoon conditions are gradually establishing over the island; hence, the prevailing showery and windy conditions will continue further.

Showers or thundershowers will occur at times in Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, North-western, Southern and Northern provinces.

Very heavy showers about 150 mm are likely at some places in Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and in Kandy and Nuwara-Eliya districts. Heavy showers above 100 mm are likely at some places in North-western province and in Mannar, Galle and Matara districts.

Showers or thundershowers will occur at several places elsewhere of the island.

Strong winds of about (50-60) kmph can be expected at times over Western slopes of the central hills and in Northern, North-central, Western, Southern and North western provinces. Fairly strong winds about (30-40) kmph can be expected at times elsewhere of the island."

2. South West Monsoon set to advance further into Andamans.

3. Kerala Monsoon expected by 31st May.

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

21st May 

*Seasonal Low Pressure forming in South Bay of Bengal on 22nd.

*Will pull up the South West Monsoon into the Andamans. 

*System will strengthen into a depression. 

*Will track towards Bangladesh.

*No Cyclone formation expected.

*No Alert on Indian Coasts.


Rains in Kerala right now are not associated with monsoon onset. The low pressure circ. that is hovering around the south west bay is having its influence over southern peninsular India including Kerala and adjoining Arabian sea. Kerala monsoon onset is more than a week away.
From Vagarian Gokul

Monday, May 20, 2024

Post 20th May...Pune

Pashan, Pune ..20th May

Picture courtesy Prof.R.Kelkar ( Retd DGM ,IMD).

Since 10th of May, everyday, Pune has been experiencing pre-monsoon thunder showers. Providing much-needed relief from the scorching summer heat. Seeing a prolonged continuity of a weather pattern. 

Seasonal total rain in Pune till 20th is 107 mms ( normal 38 mms).

Pune 24 Hrs Rainfall in mm, Dt. 20.05.2024                                                                                       






DAUND 10.5


NDA 9.0