Saturday, April 19, 2014

TWO CONSECUTIVE WDs A-3 & A-4 PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN NORTH INDIA...
Western Disturbances with an induced low and a deeper trough brought widespread moderate to heavy rainfall in Northwest India. WDs namely A-3 & A-4 led to continuous five rainy days in northern parts. Parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal & Punjab got heavy rain with strong gusts. Delhi-NCR, Haryana, Rajasthan & West UP also recorded light to moderate rain on multiple occasions. 

This continuous rainfall activity gradually lowered the day temperatures in both the plains & the hilly regions. Few areas are even 15 notches below the normal range. Delhi-NCR got one spell from each WD. The second spell on 18 April morning was stronger than the previous spell along with strong gusty winds & widespread rainfall in the whole region. Safdarjung observatory in New Delhi saw a south westerly squall on 18th morning with a maximum wind speed of 78 km/hr.

Western Rajasthan also benefitted from both the systems with light to moderate rain with strong winds. Also the day temperatures were much lower in parts of west UP on 18th due to rain in the early morning period which continued till afternoon.

Here's the maximum temperature & precipitation during the past 24 hours ending at 8:30 am IST(19 April) over various parts of the region...
STATE CITY TEMPERATURE (°C) DEPARTURE  (°C) RAINFALL (mm)
JAMMU & KASHMIR       Banihal          9.1       (-13)   51.30
JAMMU & KASHMIR       Batote          9.7       (-13)   64.60
JAMMU & KASHMIR     Bhaderwah          9.5       (-15)   79.40
JAMMU & KASHMIR      Gulmarg          1.8       (-9)   20.00
JAMMU & KASHMIR       Jammu         22.3       (-10)   12.50
JAMMU & KASHMIR        Katra         18.9       (-11)   28.10
JAMMU & KASHMIR      Kukernag          8.9       (-10)   28.40
JAMMU & KASHMIR      Kupwara          9.6       (-12)   19.30
JAMMU & KASHMIR     Pahalgam          6.2       (-12)   29.30
JAMMU & KASHMIR     Qazigund         11.0       (-10)   20.20
JAMMU & KASHMIR      Srinagar         13.3       (-8)   12.00
HIMACHAL PRADESH      Bilaspur         25.5       (-8)   17.00
HIMACHAL PRADESH      Chamba         17.5       (-8)   62.00
HIMACHAL PRADESH    Dharamsala         20.2       (-6)   61.20
HIMACHAL PRADESH      Hamirpur         23.3      (-10)   33.20
HIMACHAL PRADESH        Kalpa         13.0       (-4)   14.00
HIMACHAL PRADESH   Sundernagar         23.7       (-6)   28.80
HIMACHAL PRADESH        Kullu         23.5       (-5)   12.50
HIMACHAL PRADESH        Una         27.8       (-8)     8.80
HIMACHAL PRADESH       Nahan        24.4       (-8)   29.30
HIMACHAL PRADESH       Solan        23.0       (-4)   19.40
UTTARAKHAND       Almora        16.1       (-6)     NIL
UTTARAKHAND     Champawat        14.3       (-7)     2.00
UTTARAKHAND     Dehradun        28.0       (-4)     5.50
UTTARAKHAND    Mukteshwar        16.0       (-6)     NIL
UTTARAKHAND      Mussorie        13.6       (-7)     6.00
UTTARAKHAND      Nainital        15.4       (-5)     6.00
UTTARAKHAND     Pantnagar        15.3       (-6)     NIL
UTTARAKHAND    Pithoragarh        15.3       (-8)     0.80
UTTARAKHAND       Tehri        16.0       (-6)     0.40
UTTARAKHAND     Uttarkashi        16.0       (-7)     8.00
PUNJAB      Amritsar        26.0       (-8)    39.80
PUNJAB    Ferozepore        29.9       (-6)    37.00
PUNJAB Anandpur Sahib        29.0       (-5)    27.00
PUNJAB    Bhatinda        31.0       (-5)     4.00
PUNJAB    Kapurthala        28.4       (-6)    73.00
PUNJAB     Ludhiana        29.2      (-6)    24.00
PUNJAB     Pathankot        23.2      (-11)     NA
PUNJAB     Patiala        28.6       (-6)    11.50
CHANDIGARH    Chandigarh        29.0       (-5)    16.80
HARYANA     Ambala        27.4       (-6)     8.80
HARYANA     Bhiwani        29.4       (-7)     NIL
HARYANA     Gurgaon        29.3       (-7)     NIL
HARYANA       Hisar        30.0       (-7)    NIL
HARYANA      Karnal        27.6       (-7)    NIL
HARYANA  Kurukshetra        27.7       (-6)    NIL
HARYANA     Narnaul        27.5       (-10)    NIL
HARYANA      Rohtak        28.3       (-6)    1.00
NEW DELHI    Safdarjung        30.0       (-6)    TRACE
NEW DELHI      Palam        30.7       (-7)     NIL
RAJASTHAN      Ajmer        30.8      (-6)    11.40
RAJASTHAN      Churu        30.8      (-8)    NIL
RAJASTHAN      Jaipur        31.6      (-5)    NIL
RAJASTHAN    Jaisalmer        31.0      (-8)    0.40
RAJASTHAN     Jodhpur        33.6      (-5)    9.40
RAJASTHAN      Kota        36.9      (-2)    0.10
RAJASTHAN   Sriganganagar        32.3      (-5)    5.60
UTTAR PRADESH      Agra        29.3      (-10)    2.40
UTTAR PRADESH     Aligarh        29.0      (-8)    3.00
UTTAR PRADESH     Bahraich        31.6      (-5)    0.40
UTTAR PRADESH      Banda        37.4      (-3)    0.40
UTTAR PRADESH     Bareilly        24.8      (-12)    7.20
UTTAR PRADESH    Fursatganj        33.6      (-4)    0.60
UTTAR PRADESH      Hardoi        25.0      (-11)    8.00
UTTAR PRADESH     Jhansi        37.3      (-3)    7.90
UTTAR PRADESH     Kanpur        29.4      (-9)    4.40
UTTAR PRADESH    Lucknow        29.6      (-8)   TRACE
UTTAR PRADESH   Shahjahanpur        24.0      (-11)    7.40
UTTAR PRADESH    Moradabad        29.5      (-6)    4.40
UTTAR PRADESH      Meerut        28.5      (-8)    0.20
UTTAR PRADESH  Muzaffarnagar        26.9      (-8)    NIL
MW-2 is being made, draft ready and managing final touch with current position..will be on blog very late Saturday Night...
Publishing Defered till Sunday Evening due to compilation and fact searching delays...

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Outlook for the coming Weekend, Friday,18th, Saturday19th and Sunday 20th April;

Friday: A-4 will be precipitating in the Northern Pakistan areas of Punjab and Upper Sindh and parts of South Sindh. Many Central Sindh cities like Nawabshah, Sukkur and Hyderabad are likely to get rains. 

In India also, the WD will precipitate in Kashmir, HP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana and some severe storms in Rajasthan and North MP.
The higher reaches of the Hill states are likely to get snow. Heavier showers in Western Nepal.
That means, continuing below normal day temperatures in the North.
A trough, and a semi formed LWD will get thunder showers to Southern Maharashtra and interior Karnataka. 
Belgaum can get the evening thunder shower.

Bangalore too can possibly get the long waited thunder shower on Friday.

Saturday:
A-4 moves east, and keeps the Sindh dry. Sporadic showers continue in Pak Punjab.
Northern India get another day of rains, which decrease by Saturday night. Rains in Punjab, Haryana and Northern Rajasthan plains will continue for another day.
Raipur can get another Thunder shower on Saturday/Sunday.
A-4 weakens and withdraws from the region. Rains almost cease in the North, bringing out the sun and heat from Monday.

Southwards, Thunder showers will lash Southern Maharashtra and Marathwada. The "line " of Thunde cells developing will be Southwards from Southern Maharashtra into adjoining N.I. Karataka, which too will get thunder showers. But rains decrease in S.I..Karnataka.

As the WD disintegrates , Kathmandu can get light showers on Saturday. Otherwise we see the days pleasant around 30c, heating up suddenly from Sunday.
Sunday:

But its Maharshtra special for Sunday,with the entire state barring Konkan poised to get thunder showers.Thunder showers cooling Nagpur and Aurangabad on Sunday.

City Forecast for next 3 days:
Mumbai will be partly cloudy, and getting cloudy and night.With the day temperature around 32c, expect the nights to get more warmer (26c) and humid (stuffy).
Parts of city can expect light drizzles on Sunday evening. Monday too will be cloudy with light rains in some parts.

Pune, will have to bear the heating as it increases from Friday to Saturday. Days could go to 39/40c.
Only to be possibly rewarded with a "good" thunderstorm on Sunday.

Bangalore, with the chance of a thunder shower in the vicinity on Friday, will be hot at 35c on Saturday and Sunday with no rain. 

Delhi NCR: Depending on A-4 on Friday and Saturday for the temperatures to remain around 33/34c, with clouds and light to moderate rains in many parts on Friday and Saturday.
But as mentioned, A-4 moves away on Sunday, which will become sunny and warmer.

Kolkata will remain dry and hot, as the rains in the west will not be effecting or reaching Bengal, blocked by a ridge. Hence, the heating will continue, and with sunny days, may take Kolkata beyond the 40c mark this weekend.

Raipur will possibly see more thunder showers this weekend, especially on Saturday/Sunday.

Pakistan:
Islamabad will be cloudy, with intermittent rain during Friday and Saturday. Day will be pleasant at 23/24c, rising on Sunday to cross 30c as clouds disappear.

Karachi will be partly cloudy on Friday and Saturday, around 34/35c. Sunday will be sunny and hot at 36c.

Sibbi, Turbat or Dadu could possibly heat up to 42c on Sunday.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Heat Wave in Oman..Hot for April !..See International Page

Posted Thursday Evening:
Prateek sends report of Thunder Storm in Raipur...as per vagaries' forcast...pics from Prateek on Inter active Page

Posted Wednesday Night:
Expected rainfall occurred in Udaipur region on Wednesday evening...parts  of the region had light rain showers, with Chittorgarh measuring 1 mm.
After Pune jumped to 39.1c, parts of Pune had light thunder shower in the evening ...Kolhapur received 1mm

Posted Wednesday Morning:
True to schedule (below), come Wednesday and parts of Delhi NCR got showers. Several reports have come in with Arpit mentioning heavy rains in Ghaziabad, and Noida getting 4/5 mms.
A-3 is showing its strength in the region as mentioned.
And, A-4 trough has formed and the induced UAC taking shape soon.
As mentioned, will keep day temperatures down. Diagram shows the oscillating averages between "red" and "blue", which has kept the overall average (for Delhi) almost on normal level, 0.01c below.

As per below estimate, Tuesday Night / Wednesday, Can expect light drizzles in Karachi. Hyderabad may get light showers, Nawabshah also light showers amidst cloudy weather. Around 5-7 mms in Nawabshah possible.

Posted Monday 14th April:
Estimate for next 3 days from 15th April 

Tuesday 15th April:
A-3, as a trough with an induced Low moves into Pakistan. Rain is expected in Northern regions of Pakistan and most parts of Central and Northern Sindh. Rainfall increases in Sindh towards night. Expect rainfall in Faisalabd, Sukkur, Dau and Nawabshah regions. Besides all regions of Pak Punjab. 
Rainfall also effective in Kashmir and HP on Tuesday. 
Fairly heavy rainfall in Kerala and S.I. Karnataka.

Wednesday 16th April:
Effect of A-3 moves into Northern India.Besides Kashmir and HP, we can see rainfall in Rajasthan and Punjab, Haryana and parts of 
Delhi NCR may get thunder showers in parts of the region. Delhi will not rise to above 35/36c next few days.
Udaipur region may get a thunder shower in the evening.
Rainfall from a UAC is expected in Chattisgarh and Jharkhand.

Thursday 17th April:
Though the WD moves eats from Pakistan, decreasing rainfall in Sindh, we see continuing rains in Northern Pakistan and Pak Punjab.Indian Punjab, Haryana and Kashmir and HP too gets continuing showers.. Rains will also be effective in parts of Northern MP. Odisha gets heavy thunder showers. Bhubaneshwar and Raipur will see thunder showers.

Friday 18th April:
A-4 moves in with a deeper trough, bringing rains to Himalayan Hill states and more thunder rains to the plains of Pak Punjab, Central and Upper Sindh and parts of Southern Sindh around Hyderabad and Karachi.
The Indian states of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, West UP and North MP get thunder showers. Pockets of Interior Maharashtra will get thunder showers.
Aurangabad and Marathwada can get thundershowers.

All this sounds good, but not so well for the MW-2 preparations. 
The average temperatures in the sub Continent for April are really not heating up, ( except the Bengal belt) and the weekly map and 1 day map of Monday 14th shows near normal with below normal pockets, and now the entire regions mentioned above will see below normal temperatures, with day temperatures dropping a couple of degrees, and remaining below normal....and, does this mean well for the formation of the seasonal low ? 


Only consolation is that Bengal may still heat up, and Kolkata may reach 40c in next 2 days..
Pune may hover around 40c on Tuesday and Wednesday, with night temperatures rising .
Bangalore too will be hot around 35c, but chance of thundershowers on Thursday /Friday.

Sunday, April 13, 2014

1. A-3 should move into Northern Pakistan (Northern Sindh and Pak Punjab) by 16th April. A-3 in North India by 17th April.
2. Rainfall along East coast decreasing from 14th. Moving towards Bengal...Moving towards Kolkata , where Thunder shower possible on 15th/16th.
3. Rains increases in kerala next few days.Shower for Bangalore on 14th/15th April.

Madhya Maharastra was cool on Sunday morning...Ahmadnagar was 15.2c (6c below) ,  Pune saw a low of 14.7c (5c below), while Mahableshwar was 19.2c.

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Monsoon Watch - 1... 2014...10th April 

These reports are my personal views, study and observations. Estimates and forecasts are also my own calculations and views, and may/may not tally with any other estimates. This may not be used for commercial purposes. The authour is not responsible for any commercial loss from this article, or this series of articles.

Monsoon Watch - 1.. 2014
The Monsoon developments, as they unfold, will be analysed and discussed and explained in Vagaries. 

Well well, time flies, and its Monsoon time again ! The South West Monsoon is just about 35 days away from its normal date of arrival from the shores of India ? Yes ! its just 35 days from the Southern most point of India on the South Andaman Islands, Indira Point, where the normal arrival date is 15th May.
And its about time we start the follow up of its progress and monitor its developments. This would be the correct time and jidgment of the Monsoon progress would be simplified at this stage as the ultimate 2 branches are still not formed, and the overall Monsoon "birth" is just taking formation shape.

The Sub-Continent is eagerly awaiting  its share of 2014 monsoon rains !

This annual series is a follow up and chasing of the South-West Monsoon. Every article in this series explains the synoptic situation as it actually is, and based on the day's position, the date and quantum of rains as on THIS SITUATION.

It is very important to firstly estimate the date of arrival of the S W Monsoon, as year to year, variations in dates of onset of the monsoon can occur and there have been several occasions in the past when the monsoon arrived over certain parts of the country about a fortnight earlier or later than the normal dates. The SWM has the  weatherman tearing at his hair for the exact date or time, extent and progress. This is never 100 per cent sure though various weather models are used to calculate this event.
Weather forecasters are meteorologists, not magicians !

Initially, in the firsr few articles, this series will be chasing and closely following up the actual developments of the monsoon parameters, and analysing its progress regionally for calculating and estimating the arrival date. 
We are not yet contemplating the quantum of rains or the monsoon strength as yet. 

There are 2 parts to this article:
A)-This is the Ideal Conditions (Map) During SWM Onset in Early June. and 
B)below indiactes the actual situation of the parameters situation today (10th April).

A)Very very briefly, let  us first understand, that the "power house" of our SWM is actually based far away in the southern Hemisphere. The main "generating factory" is the Mascrene Highs, between SE of the Madagascar coast and Australia. The SWM is born down South, 4000 kms from the Indian Mainland !

The proper formation of these high regions,(1032/1034 mb at least) will boost and create proper SE winds to lash the East African Coast near the Equator, and then turn perpendicular towards SW in the Northern Hemisphere. 
And the formation of the "Tibetan High" is another factor. An anti-cyclone in the upper atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau. During the formation stages, there will be thunderstorm activity in the SE parts of Tibet during the months of April and May.




To generate a powerful SW wind, the cross equatorial flow must be strong and gusty. SW winds (ultimately upto 600 mb levels) then are capable of riding on the warmer Arabian Sea waters (Arabian Sea Branch of SWM) and bring cloud masses towards the West Coast of India. In the Bay, similar SW winds are generated (Bay branch of SWM), but from SE winds below the equator, just below Sri Lanka.

And to attract the SW winds, again, we need a good proper "seasonal low" to develop in the Sub-Continent. This seasonal low, normally should start forming around Barmer, Rajasthan, by mid April, and at its peak stretch upto Arabia. Seasonal low at its peak, in June, should normally be around 994 mb, and the ridge around Kerala should be 1008 mb. This enables a good gradient to pull the SWM Northwards and inland.

B)- In this initial stage, we will observe the basic root and foundation, the initial 4 parameters only, and the initial seed of the monsoon. From these parameters, later a few more develop.

1. Cross Equatorial Winds from Southern Hemisphere.
2. Seasonal Low over India/Pakistan.
3. ENSO Status.
4. Pre Monsoon Low in the Bay.

Position today:

1. Cross Equtorial Winds should start forming, and taking shape from mid -April, especially in the South Indian ocean region. 
The Mascarene Highs are the main "Power House" of the South -West Monsoons. This generates the South -East winds, which after gaining strength, cross the equator and become south west. For a proper High to form in the South Indian Ocean, the cyclone season (Low pressures) should completely die down from that region.

Today, 10th April, we have a strong Cyclone "Ita" to the NE of Australia. (Cat 4). Our concern for the Monsoon formation is to the West...and we have a Low to the West of Australia. Now, we need stronger formations of Highs in the region, and the SSTs in the Southern Indian ocean need to drop further for that.

As on date today, the Mascarene Highs is lacking formation. We see a high of 1019 mb in the map below.., while last year on date  1 segment, of 1034 mb is seen.




But things are clearer below the Equator.

Currently the MJO has stalled in the Eastern Indian Ocean region, with the cyclone embedded in it.
For the Bay branch, we have an interaction of a Low off the Western Australian Coast and the MJO, which are "differing" the formation of the SE winds from the South.
Tropical cyclone/ Lows forming in the S.Indian Ocean off the Australian Coast, means a marginal delay in the Mascrene highs strengthening. ITCZ today is around 7S.

Initial forming off the East African Coast, has started from below the equator. and the weak SE flow towards Eastern Africa can be see, though a bit dis-organised.
As the Monsoon strikes the Andaman Sea by mid May, developing wind currents ( Westerly) are required to be observed initially near the Eastern side of the Southern Indian Ocean, and this is weakly forming as of today,




Indicator: -ve

2. Seasonal Low: Now, this year, the heating in the sub continent has just about started in the Eastern/Central and parts of Gujarat regions. The above normal heating in the NW is yet to start, as March was relatively cooler I would say. The anomaly map for March shows a cooler  Central regions and cooler South. This is not much of a plus point in the formation, or a quicker formation of one of the important pre monsoon weather requirement, the seasonal low.


 In fact, the minimum night temperatures are still below normal in central and NW India. The current one week into April is also pretty much the same.


The seasonal low, stretch over Arabia thru India, normally starts forming in the Barmer and adjoining regions in the second week of April. 
Today, the MSL is around 1010 mb in the Sindh/Rajasthan region. There is a isobar of 1008 mb covering almost the entire Indian region.In the "core seed" area, it 1008 mb. (The ultimate low in the core, in June when ready, should be 994mb.). 
This progress is not upto schedule. 

The Line of Wind Discontinuity should stabilise around Central India perpendicular down into the Southern Peninsula by mid April. This enhances the speed of the Seasonal Low formation. Normally is required to start taking shape for the monsoon by the second week of April. 

Indicator: -ve

3. ENSO is now Neutral. Last SOI reading observed was -9.0.  (It was +9 last year this date !)
 Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably, upto 4c above normal (See diagram below ),  in recent weeks, consistent with a state of rapid transition. 


El Nino conditions may start as early as June 2014 as the SST in the NINO 3.4 has increased by 0.3c in the last 2 weeks.

The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. The reading for March is -0.71. Thus Neutral conditions prevail for a month . Neutral conditions expected to decrease from June at least. This parameter may disturb the advance and interfere with the date.

Indicator: Towards El Nino.

4. Bay Low: Another pre monsoon seasonal normal requirement is the creation of a low in the Bay by the second week of April. This is necessary to trigger off the flow and formation of lows from the bay.
Progress this year is bad, as the Bay shows no signs today. No forecast of any low as of now. (in 2009,a low formed by the 12th. of April, and later it intensified into cyclone "Bijli", 2010 had no low till 3rd week of april).
Today, we have a high sitting in the Southern  Bay. The required SW winds may not yet form as yet, as the active trough still around 10S is interacting with the MJO.
But we will see the pulse coming in from The storm Peipah....some hope of a low !

Indicator: Neutral

Summary for arrival Date: Parameter 1). -ve.  Parameter 2). -ve,  Parameter 3) -ve.   Parameter 4). Neutral
Tilted towards the negative, as of 10th April.

New Readers, please note, These initial Parameters are normally (every year) considered in MW Series to gauge and estimate the arrival date of SWM, not strength. Time of arrival normally indicated in MW-3, and strength after 26th April. 
There are more parameters are to be considered, as and when they are developed and to be taken into consideration.
Next MW -2 update  on 20th. April.

While IMD still defers its forecast, IMD should have taken up this job in right earnest much earlier. Vagaries had mentioned this earlier here in 2012.. 

Sunday, April 06, 2014

High temperature readings in Karnataka...Review till 3rd April 2014...

Panambur : 37.4c   17th March 2014   highest in March in 5 years
Bellary:       41.0c   30th March 2014   Highest for March in 7 years
Belgaum:    37.8c   30th March 2014   Highest in March in 9 years
Chitradurga:38.0c   31st March 2014   Highest in March in 9 years


Posted Tuesday Night:

Bangalore daytime temperatures has been hovering around the 35/36c mark since mid March.




Last 1 Month,5th March-5th April,  the temperatures in Bangalore are 0.8c above normal (average between day and night).

The record highest ever for March is 37.3c recorded on 29th March 1996. The highest ever for Bangalore is 38.9c, recorded on 22nd May 1933.
The airport highest in March is however is 36.6c recorded in 1959.

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Posted on Monday , 7th April Night:
* We continue this article from the paragraph marked * in green in yesterday's post below (in this slot):

The LWD forecasted for Monday has formed, and runs from Vidharbh thru Marathwada and South Madhya Maharashtra into N.I. Karnataka. 


Mumbai was cloudy on Monday. Light drizzles were experienced in the Eastern Outer townships. Colaba saw a high of 29c, Scruz 31.3c and vagaries 29.4c on Monday.

Cloudy weather also prevailed in North Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra and North Karnataka.

Belgaum, Panchgani and parts of Satara ( 0.9 mm) and Kolhapur ( .1 mm)regions received sporadic showers, as expected on Monday.
Now, let us see if the embedded UAC forms in the Western Vidharbh/Marathwada region.

Karachi high was 36c on Monday...and lowest humidity was 4% !!  so, the heat index was at 32c.....but , very hot indeed !
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Posted Sunday Night 6 th April:Current Weather and expected Weather for 7th, 8th and 9th April:

Western Distrubance A-2 is active over Upper Sindh and Northern Pakistan regions on Sunday 6th April. Good precipitation is witnessed in Pakistan Punjab
(Pic sent by Waqas from Gujarat City in Pak Punjab. 10 mms were recorded there). 
Amongst the heavy falls: Chirat 46 mms, Joharabad 45 mms, Bannu 41 mms, Dir 35 mms,

As A-2 has an induced Low over the plains , we can expect the precipitation to move into India , the North west , on Sunday night and into Monday.
Pic from Malout Punjab sent by Sukhwinder
Thunder showers can be expected in Kashmir, HP, Punjab and Haryana, North Rajasthan and Delhi on Monday.

Delh NCR will be cloudy at times and showers expected on Monday.

Rainfall decreases in Pakistan Northern regions on Monday, with skies clearing in Islamabad on Monday.Though Islamabad was cloudy at 27c today and had light drizzles, it can expect around 10-15 mms on Sunday night. Monday will be around 28/29c, with sky clearing by evening.
Nawabshah was hot at 39c, hottest in Pakistan, and will remain around 39c, touching 40/41c in a few days.

On Sunday 6th, Southern Maharashtra was cloudy, with light rainfall in some parts. Kolhapur measured 4 mms till Sunday evening.
South Konkan and adjoining Southern Maharashtra wil be cloudy on Monday and Tuesday, with an odd thunder cell popping up around the Satara/Kolhapur or Solapur regions. 
Monday/ Tuesday, Belgaum amd Goa will be cloudy with rains in the vicinity.

*A LWD will run through the Maharastra and Interior Karnataka region on Monday 7th through Wednesday 9th. Am embedded UAC could form over the Eastern Vidharbh/Marathwada region on Monday/Tuesday.The Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Western Vidharbh will be cloudy with sparse rainfall in some pockets next 2 days. N.I. Karnataka will be cloudy with the odd shower in some parts.
The UAC may descend to form a weak Low , and move Eastwards. We can see some cooling showers in the baking hot coastal AP and Coastal Odisha regions on Wednesday. Windy along East coast.

Monday 7th, Tuesday 8th and Wednesday 9th:
Delhi NCR, with chance of a shower on Monday,will not still go full steam, and hovers around 35/36c next 3 days. 
Kolkata, hot at 39c, and 27c at night. Could be lucky if a thunder cell developing around the vicinity moves over the city.
Surat will be sunny and warm at 36/37c.
Bangalore, the long wait for relief from heat continues. City will be warm around 35/36c, with few passing clouds. Humid.
Hyderabad sunny and touching 40c. And Raipur rising to 42/43c.

Mumbai..From an Upper air trough, Sunday was a cloudy day in Mumbai, of couse high medium clouds, trough will move inland and merge with the LWD.

 Resultantly, it lowered the day temperature to  32c. Clouds giving way to clear skies from Monday afternoon. So, Next 3 days till Thursday will be sunny and humid. Days, will be around 33/34c, but with humidity the real feel will be around  36/37 c. Nights start getting warmer from the current 24c levels.
Pune stays cloudy on Monday, but clears from Tuesday. Days will hover around 37/38c. Pleasant nights at 19/20c.

Keep a Watch on TS "Peipah"..Pushing to be Cat 1 ...!

MW Series starts this year as Usual on 10th April....highlight on TS Ivanoe and Fast warming of Sub surface sea temperatures (read up the El Nino article on blog last week),
  
The Opposition of Mars...Mars is Getting Closer to us...Earth and Mars are converging for a close encounter on the 14th of April....see article and Video..on Space News Page