Monday, September 01, 2014

Low forms SW off Saurashtra Coast on Tuesday Evening...Likely to merge with Seasonal Axis.
UAC can form off the Odisha Coast around 5th..

MONSOON REPORT (16-8-2014 TO 31-8-2014)
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 31-8-2014) 589.8 mm
SEASON +/- -17%
RAINFALL THIS FORTNIGHT (from 16-8-2014) 99.4 mm
TO ACHIEVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER          required per day------->    mm
MINIMUM                             700   mm 3.67
AVERAGE                                890   mm 10.01
MAXIMUM                          1100   mm 17.01
CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY  6.41 mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL PER DAY THIS FORTNIGHT 6.21 mm
REQUIRED PER DAY TO ACHIEVE SEP AVERAGE (174 mm) 5.8 mm
AUGUST RAINFALL 236.6 mm
AVERAGE AUGUST RAINFALL (113 YEARS) 262 mm
DIFF +/- -25.4 mm
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS FORTNIGHT    mm
COASTAL KARNATAKA 407.7
ARUNACHAL PRADESH 351.3
SHWB & SIKKIM 342.6
LAKSHADWEEP 318.7
KONKAN & GOA 311.4
BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS FORTNIGHT     mm
EAST U.P. 27.7
WEST RAJASTHAN 12.6
WEST U.P. 9.6
PUNJAB 6.9
HAR. CHD & DELHI 6.7
TOP FOUR SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL (1-6-2014 to 31-8-2014)   
S. I. KARNATAKA 22%
N. I. KARNATAKA 9%
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERRY 7%
ODISHA 6%
ARUNACHAL PRADESH 4%
BOTTOM SIX SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL (1-6-2014 to 31-8-2014)
MARATHWADA -39%
EAST U.P. -41%
WEST U.P. -59%
PUNJAB -65%
HAR. CHD & DELHI -66%
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2014 to 31-8-2014)    27 (29%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2014 to 31-8-2014)    65 (71%)
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS IN AUGUST       10 (32%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS IN AUGUST      21 (68%)
source -IMD

Sunday, August 31, 2014

Posted Sunday Night:
Come September ! 
(Only significant rain events elaborated).
Monday 1st September, the current UAC moves West/ North-Westwards and brings Heavy Rain to West MP, Eastern Gujarat region, South Gujarat Coast and parts of North Central Maharashtra (Aurangabad, Jalgaon, Akola, Nasik). 
Rains reduce in Konkan.

Monday Night into Tuesday 2nd, Showers increase in Coastal Saurashtra.

Monday and Tuesday due to moisture inflow, patches of rain are possible in North Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, and Delhi NCR.

Tuesday Night/Wednesday 3rd, rains move into rest of Gujarat including Kutch. Increase in rains in NW India States. 

On 2nd September, from the pulse from the erstwhile UAC, AS-1 forms as a Low near the West Gujrat/Pakistan border. Kutch and adjoining Sindh may get heavy showers in patches.

Pakistan:
2nd September, Rains also move into South and SE Sindh, Upper Sindh, adjoining Pak Punjab, almost covering roughly the Eastern half of Pakistan. ( Sukkur, Hydreabad, Nawabshah included).
Punjab cities ( Lahore, Gujrat, Multan ) can get thunder showers.

Thunder Showers in Karachi Tuesday Night through Wednesday. There is a possibility of heavy rains on Saturday next, but we wait before confirming.
Heavy Falls in MP on all days.

Delhi NCR: The odd shower on Monday in some patches. Rains increase on Wednesday and regions may get around 20-25 mms.

Mumbai: Reduced rain intensity on Monday, with some evening showers could be heavy. Rains around 35 mms.
Lessening intensity on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Pune: another Thunder shower on Monday, and some decrease in rains from Tuesday.


No significant rains developing around Hyderabad.
Seems that the axis shifting South has forced the Bay winds to push eastwards into North India plains. This may delay the earlier announced formation of BB-8.

Monday Stats and Analysis coming up on this Page from GSB ...this article moves to Current Weather Page
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Situation as on Sunday Evening: BB-7 remains as a UAC over Central India...Monsoon Axis has shifted across into Central India...Outlook next few days and AS-1 forming chances coming here by tonite

Maharashtra Rains as on 31st August Morning: Harnai 194 mms, Ratnagiri 172 mms, Dapoli 168 mms Shriwardhan 153 mms, Matheran 83 mms, Lonaval 47 mms and Mahableshwar 42 mms.

Some of the Heavy Rainfall amounts in cms from Saurashtra as on 31st Morning: Kalavad (dist Jamnagar) 14, Upleta (dist Rajkot) 14, Ranavav (dist Porbandar) 14, Jetpur (dist Rajkot) 13, Kutiana (dist Porbandar) 11, Rajula (dist Amreli) 11, Gandhidham (dist Kutch) 9, Dhoraji (dist Rajkot) 9, Savarkundala_arg (dist Amreli) 8, Una (dist Junagarh) 8, Umrala (dist Bhavnagar) 8.

Mumbai Rains for last 24 hrs ended 5.30 pm IST 31st August: CST Terminal 122 mms, Dadar 135 mms, Worli 115 mms, Grant Road 140 mms, Colaba 130 mms and Vagaries 140 mms.

Colaba Rainfall from 8.30 - 5.30 pm IST: Colaba 49 mms,  Scruz 37 mms. Vagaries 62 mms

Comparison of Forecast and Actual for Sunday 31st: (Just Comparing)


Friday, August 29, 2014

Sunday Afternoon: BB-7 as a Low has almost fizzled out...UAC remains intact..
As expected, a rainy Sunday in Mumbai with frequent showers and occasional thunder...Vagaries reading from 08.30 am -2.30 pm : 61 mms.

Posted Friday 29th Evening:

BB-7 !...Thats the Low now of the AP/Odisha coast. The system has an upper air circulation also, upto the 500 level. 
Seeing the current situation, system would expect a weak low at sea level to track West/North-West and weaken, along the track as the sea level trough comes Southwards. The UAC associated with it remains strong and effective..all along a Southern Path.
The vagaries Map shows the two fold Track


The pulse from the system, gives rise to another UAC, West of Gujarat by Monday, 1st September. 
AS-1 ( at sea level) may form by 2nd and travel West, and bring rains to Sindh Coast and South Pakistan from Tuesday 2nd ....will update on Sunday. 



Another UAC/Low starts forming in the North Bay on 2nd September.... 

Only light isolated rain showers likely in Punjab till Monday. The rainfall remains scanty and isolated. No meaningful system or change seen. 

Mumbai:
Saturday 30th: Day starts as cloudy and rains ( Thunder showers) increase from late afternoon into night. By Sunday morning, City would record around 30 mms.
Sunday 31st: An overcast and rainy day with intermittent heavy showers. Heavy spells with thunder in ceratin parts may cause some regional flooding . Rains on Sunday may be around 75 mms.
Monday 1st Sept: Occasional showers continue, though less than Sunday. Maybe around 25-30 mms.

Pune: Saturday and Sunday: Heavy rains and thunder showers from Late Saturday into Sunday. Saturday will measure around 30 mms and Saturday night into Sunday may see around 25-30 mms.

Surat:
Rainfall increasing from Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday sees heavy and intermittent rains and thunder showers.
Same for Bharuch.

Nagpur : Chance of heavy thunder storm on Saturday evening/night.
Hyderabad: Chance of a thunderstorm on Saturday Night and possible showers on Sunday morning.
Rain showers and occasional showers continue  for the next 3 days in Raipur and Bhubaneshwar.

Delhi NCR remains almost dry, except for an odd regional spotty shower on Monday 1st September. Good increase in rains seen from 3rd.

Pakistan gets the benefit of the AS-1 system from Tuesday. Coastal Sindh, and regions in Southern Sindh may start getting the rains from Tuesday 2nd September.
Karachi can get clouds and showers on Tuesday. Dust or thunderstorm possible in Sindh Hyderabad, Mirpur and Nawabshah regions on Tuesday.
An isolated localised storm likely in Islamabad and near by vicinity. 

Only Moderate and Heavy Rains Shown here

Article in Lokmat Times on Aurangabad of Saturday 31st August...on Current Weather Page

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Showers in NCR on 27th and 28th as forecasted in Sunday Post....


Posted Thursday Morning: A Low has formed off the AP/South Odisha coast at 17N in the Bay..

UAC has formed in the Central Bay, off the North AP/South Odisha Coast. Fairly strong at Upper Levels, it will descend as a Low in the same region by 28th. Numbering i will be decided tomorrow. Vagaries does not expect it to remaina s Low, but as a Strong UAC and track Westwards..

Orissa monsoon rains (1 Jun - 26 Aug 2014) 

Top 3 rainy subdivisions ( 1 Jun to 26 Aug 2014):

1) Coastal Karnataka : 257 cms (-5%)
2) Konkan and Goa : 211 cms (-15 %)
3) Kerala : 173 cms (-1 %)

Orissa has received 92 cms (+7 %)

    (please click to enlarge)

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Posted Tuesday Night: On Wednesday 27th, an UAC will most likely form in the Central Bay, around 15N and 85E. Around the 700 level, it could descend to form a sea level low in the same region and then track Westwards...more on this when the forecast for Thursday onwards is put up..


Posted Sunday 24th Night..

Initial Indication of Season Change is seen at 200 mb levels. Jet streams have become Westerly above the 25N line. Monsoon can see a change in the next 10 days...

A trough off the West Coast of India remains active.
A UAC could form in the trough somewhere around South Konkan.

On Tuesday, we can expect an interaction of North winds and West winds around N.I.Karnataka regions.

Monday 25th August: 
Heavy Rainfall Regions: South Konkan. 
Later in the day, Complete interior regions East of Mumbai covering Eastern Townships. Central and Eastern Saurahtra covering Rajkot, Ahemadabad, North Junagadh and Amreli and Bhavnagar districts.
Moderate Rainfall: N.I. Karnataka (Belgaum) and adjoining Telengana (Hyderabad). Marathwada and rest of Maharashtra State. South Rajasthan (Udaipur).
Coastal Odisha South of Bhubaneshwar and adjoining interior regions.



Tuesday 26th August: 
Heavy Rainfall: South Konkan, Eastern Telengana and adjoining AP,Aurangabad, Ahmednagar, N.I.Karnataka (Belgaum), 
Moderate Rains in South Gujarat (more interior), Rest of Madhya Mah and Marathwada and Karnataka.



Wednesday 27th August:
Heavy Rainfall continues in Madhya Maharashtra.
Rains in Karnataka and interior Maharashtra continue in Marathwada, though reduced. South Konkan continues to get thunder showers.
Light showers in North rajasthan, West UP and Delhi/Haryana.
Light showers in Delhi on Wednesday 27th and 28th August.
Rains reducing in Eastern India.

Mumbai City: 
Monday and Tuesday: Partly cloudy with sunny periods. Showers in parts of city indicating different intensities in pockets. Evening showers in South Mumbai.
Overall rain average will be around 25-30 mms /day. 
Eastern Townships get heavy thunder showers. Northern township regions it seems may get showers late Monday night.
Wednesday: Mainly cloudy, with rain showers in most parts of city. Rain amount will be around 35 mms average.

Pune: Monday and Tuesday: An afternoon/evening thunder shower. But variable in intensity in different parts. Waiting for Wednesday and Thursday, as we see major increase in rains. Rains in excess of 45 mms. ( Could change if the LWD fails to develop).

Bangalore: Light showers in vicinity continues into next week.

Hyderabad: Showers or thundershowers on Monday. On Wednesday, heavy showers may reoccur. 

Pakistan : Moderate rainfall in Northern divisions.Islamabad gets the shower. Parts of Upper Sindh may get the dust or thunder storm.
Karachi partly cloudy and hot. 


Article appearing in Lokmat Times on Monday 25th August...Current Weather Page

Saturday, August 23, 2014

DROUGHT LIKE CONDITIONS IN NORTHWEST PLAINS !!!

North India especially the northern plains are experiencing one of the disastrous monsoon this year. There's hardly any rain in the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi & West UP from the beginning of the monsoon season. Most of the districts are under deficient category while many are under scanty category.

Punjab & Haryana(including Chandigarh & Delhi) are the only two subdivisions which are under scanty category as per the data available till 22nd August. Punjab subdivision is bearing a deficit of -62% whereas Haryana division tops the table with -63% rain deficit since June 1. Also West UP is having rain deficit of -54%.
Now let's have a look at the district wise rainfall figures of the northern states...
ACCORDING TO IMD NORMS, RAINFALL IS CATEGORISED AS
 EXCESS [+20% or More]
NORMAL [+19% to -19%]  
 DEFICIENT [ -20% to -59%] 
 SCANTY [-60% to -99%]  
NO RAIN [-100%]
Data is available upto 20 August...





  PICS COURTESY: IMD

Days are getting terribly hot. Hissar has touched 40c, and as expected in vagaries, Delhi AirPort touched 39.6c.....

Friday, August 22, 2014

 Posted Friday Night: Western Mah heavy rains today . till 8.30 pm IST, 33 mms in Pune, 36 mms in Aurangabad and 41 mms in Nasik. 17 mms in Scruz and 6 mms at Colaba

Outlook for Friday 22nd and Saturday 23rd August:

Friday 22nd and Saturday 23rd: Thunder showers with heavy falls likely on both days along the North-South stretch from North Madhya Maharastra ( Nasik region) down Southwards into Nagar, Pune , Kolhapur, Solapur and Interior Karnataka regions (Bangalore included).
Thunder showers also will be heavy in "interior" Konkan and coastal Karnataka.
Heavy falls in patches will be around 75-100 mms.

Saturday evening will see thunder showers in Marathwada also and Showers possible in Saurashtra and Surat region.

In Pakistan, Karachi area gets light rain on late Friday night/Saturday morning.Islamabad can get a few showers.

Sunday 24th: Rains decrease in the above region. Increase in rainfall in Goa.
Rains increasing in Odisha from Monday.

Mumbai: Thundery conditions and cloudy with some parts getting rain. Saturday night, Mumbai City can get heavy showers, spilling into Sunday morning. With thunder/lightning, guage can measure 35-45 mms by Sunday morning.
Very heavy rain likely in Eastern outer townships on Saturday evening.
Pune: Thunder showers on Friday, and heavier on Saturday. Possibily >35 mms on Saturday.

Kolkata: Showers likely upto 15 mms on Friday, decreasing in the weekend with sunny spells.

Delhi NCR: Only what i can write is days might touch 40c and nights 30c ! 
Parts of Delhi NCR showed the maximum at Palam was 39.3 c on Thursday. Nights could be warm at 29-30c.

Nagpur may get heavy thunder showers in the region on Friday and Saturday.