Posted Friday 6th March Noon (IST):

The expected Western Disturbance M-2 Moves into Pakistan from the West on Saturday 7th. A deep trough at 200 hpa level, and an induced Low over Punjab at Sea level brings Rainfall spreading from Balochistan into Pak Punjab by evening.

Sunday sees the WD continue to bring good precipitations to North Pakistan (Punjab) and move into Northern and NW India. Islamabad will see a wet weekend, thunder showers pouring around 50-55 mms this weekend. Saturday and Sunday.
Gujrat City in Pak Punjab can expect 20-25 mms. Cool Saturday at 18c Max. . 
Karachi: Cloudy on Saturday with light drizzles in parts of City. North winds dominate.

Rains possible on Sunday 8th  in Kashmir, HP, Punjab and Haryana and Northern Rajasthan. 
Sunday evening showers possible in N.I. Karnatak (Belgaum) and adjoining Southern regions of Maharastra.

Late Sunday Night and early Monday 9th morning we see heavy rains in some parts of Pak Punjab (Gujrat City) and adjoining Western parts of Indian Punjab.
Due to the LWD of North Winds from the WD and South/South East winds over Maharshtra,  rains increase in Maharashtra from Sunday night to move into Marathwada (Aurangabad) and  Vidharbha(Akola and Nagpur).

Heavy spells in parts of both Punjabs on Monday 9th. 
Showers on 9th Monday pop up  in Marathwada and Vidharbha. Some regions of Madhya Maharashtra, specially north get heavy showers. Possible to see some showers drift into Interior Central Konkan areas ( Roha, Panvel).

Cities Estimate till Monday 9th:
Mumbai: May not see much clouding or rainfall till Wednesday. Weekend and into Monday, the day temperatures will rise to reach 32c, and nights may go up to 21c (from current range of 30c_ 16c at Santa Cruz).

New Delhi: Weekend till Monday, partly cloudy, with stray shower in some parts of NCR on Saturday/Sunday. Gusty S/SE winds. Otherwise, day will be at 28c.

Pune: As the day becomes warm this Sat/Sund at 33c, thunder showers in some parts will cool the city on Monday 9th evening. Rains on Tuesday also. 

Belgaum: Showers from Sunday night into Monday.

Akola: The region will see a warm weekend with days possibly rising to 33/34c. But light showers on Sunday evening, and light rains on Monday will cool the atmosphere on Monday. Would expect around 5-7 mms rains from sunday night to Monday night. More rains  and cloudy next week.

Nagpur: Aftre a warm partly cloudy weekend, a thundershower possible on Sunday night. Maybe around 10 mms till Monday morning.

Surat and Bharuch will be warm or hot. Possible showers by mid next week.

Coonoor gets a battering, Tamil Nadu rainfall ending 8.30 am on 06.03.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. over Lakshadweep-Maldives areas now lies over Maldives-Lakshdweep areas. Whenever, a system goes into Arabian Sea from Comrin Sea the steering winds lock the moisture over Coonoor valley and they get very heavy rains. Yesterday was no different.

in mm (min 5 mm)

Kalrayanhills - 120
Coonoor - 118
Coonoor Pto - 113
Kothagiri - 90
Kundha Bridge - 65
Mettur - 50
Ammapet - 35
Ketti - 30
Lower Kodayar - 30
Kodaikanal - 20
Valparai taluk office - 20
Sultanpet - 18
Pegumbahallah - 16
Panamarathupatti - 15
Tiruvallur - 13
Kadamparai - 12
Sankarankoil - 12
Thellar - 11
Mecheri - 11
Yercaud - 10
Upper Aliyar - 8
Periyar - 8
Vaniyambadi - 7
Kadayam - 7
Thunnakkadavu - 6
Mukurthy - 5
Sandayanallah - 5
Vembakottai - 5
Ammapettai - 5

Tamil Nadu continues to get Intense Thunderstorms, rainfall ending 8.30 am 05.03.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km  a.s.l. over Comorin area and adjoining south Tamil Nadu now lies over Lakshadweep-Maldives areas.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Edappadi - 113
Ammapet - 88
Chennimalai - 83
Sankaridurg - 59
Palacode - 58
Nambiyur - 56
Vaigai Dam - 52
Erode - 49
Kangeyam - 48
Karur Paramathi - 47
Kadamalaigundu - 45
Orthapalayam - 44
Jawadhu Hills - 43
Erode Pto - 43
Periyakulam - 42
Omalur - 42 
Bodinaickanur - 40
Alangayam - 40 
Pochampalli - 40
Thoockanaickenpalayam - 37
Puthen Dam - 36
Perunchani - 36
Mecheri - 33
Elathakuttaimedu - 33
Thammampatty - 30 
Valparai Pto - 29 
Kulasekharam - 28
Dharmapuri Pto - 28
Penucondapuram - 26
Shoolagiri - 26
Olathapalayam - 25
Kaudampadi - 24
Sathyamangalam - 24 
Hosur - 22 
Koliporvilai - 20
Periyar - 20
Kumarapalayam - 19 
Pechiparai - 18
Sothupparai - 18
Mulanur - 18
Muthur - 18
Denkanikottai - 17
Barur - 17 
Kadayanallur - 17
Porthimind - 16
Watrap - 16
Avinasi - 16 
Ayikudi - 15
Bhavani - 15
Macdonaldschoultry - 15
Vellakoil - 15 
Anthiyur - 14
Rajapalayam - 14
Srivilliputhur - 13
Chittar II - 13
Konganapuram - 13
Chinnakalar - 12
Mettupalayam - 12
Suralode - 12
Thondamuthur - 12
Balmore - 11
Aranmanaipudur - 11
Perundurai - 11
Arasulur - 11 
Tirupathur Pto - 10
Kodaikanal - 10
Kalrayanhills - 10
Madhanur - 10
Uttukkuli - 10
Koodiveri - 10 
Gobi - 10

 
Not Global Warming....Unusual excessive formation of ice in the Arctic Region is the sole reason for the heavy snowfall in America.

Heavy Rains or Cold Wave or Heat Wave...the trend is to Blame it on "Global Warming"....The universally ecepted "Scape Goat".....

The heavy snowfalls during the months of December 2013 and January 2014 were caused by the excessive snow and ice deposits formed in the Arctic region during August 2013.

Last year, fifty states in the U.S. experienced heavy snowfalls during the months of December 2013 and January 2014. Based on the information released on the internet, I found out that the snowfall was the aftermath of the unusual formation of extensive ice deposits in the Arctic region. However, it is explained on the basis of the “Global Warming” conception.

We are told that the ice deposits on the surface of the sea in the North Polar Region melted and the resultant sea water on the surface evaporated with the heat and rose up. This affected the polar vortex, which usually circles the middle and upper troposphere and extends into stratosphere. This further altered the path of the polar vortex, which widely spread over the entire North American continent causing heavy snowfall. http://www.dailymail.co.uk

But the British Meteorological Department has found out from the records of 30,000 stations which recorded weather that during the past seventeen years, i.e. from 1997 to 2014, the world’s temperature had not risen at all. 

Hence the explanation given for the widespread snowfall in America last year, during the months of December 2013 and January 2014 on the basis of the “Global Warming” conception is totally wrong.

In the year 2007, BBC released a news item stating that a study conducted by Prof. Dr. Wieslaw Maslowski and researchers of NASA has predicted that particularly in the month of September 2013, the North Polar Region might be ice-free. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm

But contrary to the predictions of those “Global Warming” scientists, the Arctic Region was not only not sea ice-free, but that ice had unusually formed in an area of around 5,33,000 square miles amounting to 29 percent of additional ice formation in the Arctic Region, and this was captured in the satellite images of NASA.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk

It proves that the unusual excessive formation of ice in the Arctic Region is the sole reason for the heavy snowfall in America.

There is also a possibility that this incident would recur if excessive ice is again formed in the Arctic Region. So, America, Canada and European nations may be alerted on these grounds.

...by Ganapathy Ponmudi is an independent scientist from Chennai, India.

========================================

Arunachal gets 1st spell of the pre-monsoon season, ending 8.30 am on 05.03.2015

An upper air trough from Bangladesh to coastal Odisha now runs from Western parts of Assam to North Bay of Bengal across Bangladesh and extends up to 0.9 km asl.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Anini - 99
Tuting - 93
Arzoo - 77
Etalin - 65
Tezu - 36
Passighat - 19
Khupa - 15
Geku - 12
Basar - 12

South AP continues to get much needed rains, ending 8.30 am 05.03.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km  a.s.l. over Comorin area and adjoining south Tamil Nadu now lies over Lakshadweep-Maldives areas.

in mm (min 15 mm)

Kuppam - 62
Santhipuram - 52
Botlagudur - 50
Vaddadi - 49
Rapur - 45
Gaadhirai - 39
Gudipalle - 38
Irala - 29
Kangundi - 29
Penumuru - 29
Lakkanapalle - 27
Cheedikada - 26
Chodavaram - 26
Kolamasanapalle - 23
Sydapuram - 22
Madugula - 20
Pakala - 19
Chandragiri - 16
Pathikonda - 15
Puthalapattu - 15
Torragudipadu - 15
Thota Kanuma - 15
Agarala - 15
Perumalpalle - 15
Dharmavaram - 15
Dubagunta - 15

Kanyakumari district gets heavy rains, ending 8.30 am on 04.03.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. over Comorin area and adjoining Srilanka now lies over Comorin area and adjoining south Tamil Nadu. Kulasekaram and Thirvattur have reported hail storms.

in mm (min 5 mm)

Chittar I - 64
Palacode - 44
Kulasekaharam - 41
Thoppampatti - 39
Thackalai - 39
Sankarankoil - 37
Pechiparai Agro - 35
Madhanur - 33
Anaikadangu - 32
Hogenekal - 30
Chittar II - 27
Kurunthancode - 26
Munchirai - 23
Kodaikanal Boat club - 21
Mettupalayam - 20
Omalur - 20
Kaveripakkam - 20
Wallajah - 20
Marandahalli - 20
Melalathur - 20
Kodaikanal - 19
Valparai - 18
Kannimar - 17
Pechiparai Dam - 16
Gudiyatham - 16
Macdonaldschoultry - 15
Nemili - 15
Dharmapuro - 14
Dindugul - 14
Timiri - 14
Eraniel - 13
Karumandurai - 13
Yercaud - 13
Periyar - 12
Marudhanadi - 12
Valparai Taluk office - 12
Dindigul - 12
Arani - 11
Udumalaipettai - 10
Neyoor - 9
Boothapandy - 9
Yelagiri - 9
Pochampalli - 9
Tondi - 8
Tiruttani - 8
Peranai - 8
Karamadai - 7
Paiyur - 7
Uthokottai - 7
Dharapuram - 6
Kodumudiyar - 6
Aralvoimozhi - 6
Pegumbahallah - 6
K.V.Kuppam - 5
Reddiyarchatiram - 5
Adyamadai - 5
Thunnakkadavu - 5
Virinijipuram - 5

1st spell of Pre-monsoon rains in Kerala, ending 8.30 am on 04.03.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. over Comorin area and adjoining Srilanka now lies over Comorin area and adjoining south Tamil Nadu.

in mm (min 5 mm)

Mavelikkara - 90
Thodupuzha - 76
Kozha - 46
Anchal - 31
Idamalayar - 28
Nedumangad - 18
Konni  - 17
Kanjirappally - 14
Poringal - 13
Punalur - 12
Peermade - 9
Lower Sholayar - 8
Neyyattinkara - 8
Pamba - 8
Kayamkulam - 6
Piravom - 6
Ponmudi - 6
Munnar - 6
Parambikulam - 5
Cherathla - 5
Thenmala - 5
Meenkara - 5

Dry regions of South AP gets good rains, ending 8.30 am on 04.03.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. over Comorin area and adjoining Srilanka now lies over Comorin area and adjoining south Tamil Nadu.

in mm (min 20 mm)

Kanduru - 63
Maavaturu - 58
Tallampadu - 56
Agarala - 54
Govindapuram - 49
Tirupati - 48
Gangudupalle - 45
Nimmanapalle - 44
Madakasira - 42
Chandragiri - 34
Penukonda - 34
Pedda Bodhanam    34
Dharmavaram - 33
Sri Bommaraju Puram - 31
Arogayavaram - 28
Peddamanthur - 28
Vempalle Juvupalli Road - 26
Cheedikada - 24
Chatlamitta - 23
Karani - 23
Koppunuru - 23
Lingala  - 23
Nandayal - 23
Puttaparthi - 20
Valasapalle - 20
Settigunta - 20
Yerrabalem - 20
Anantpur - 20

Maharashtra Day temps on 3rd March below...

Uttrakhand continues to get heavy rains, ending 8.30 am 03.03.2015

Western Disturbance (W.D) M-1 as an upper air cyclonic circulation now lies over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir and extends upto 4.5 km above mean sea level with a trough aloft roughly along Longitude 70.0°E and north of Latitude 20.0°N.

in mm (min 30 mm)

Nainital - 82
Champawat - 81
Dehradun - 71
Haridwar - 70
Mukteshwar - 62
Banbasa - 60
Haripur - 57
Jollygrant - 54
Deoprayag - 54
Pithoragarh - 51
Joshimath - 51
Naugaon - 48
Pantnagar - 47
Nandkeshri - 47
Koteshwar - 47
Rishikesh - 46
Ranichawari - 44
Tuini  - 44
Tehri - 41
Bharsar - 40
Marora - 39
Kalagarh - 38
Almora - 36
Roorkee - 36
Matela - 36
Srinagar - 33
Hathiari - 32

Day Temps in Maharashtra on Tuesday 3rd March 2015:

MADHYA MAHARASHTRA*

 POONA                    26.2(-7.9)     10.9(-2.9)

 LOHGAON               26.5(-8.5)     12.6(-3.4) 

 AHMEDNAGAR         27.5(-7.1)     10.1(-5.7) 

 JALGAON                27.4(-8.3)     14.2(-2.4) 

 KOLHAPUR             28.1(-6.5)     16.6(-1.7) 

 MAHABLESHWAR    21.5(-8.0)     08.8(-7.2) 

 MALEGAON            28.0(-6.8)     11.0(-3.7) 

 NASIK                    25.7(-7.9)     08.1(-5.8) 

 SANGLI                 28.8(-6.7)     15.3(-1.7) 

 SATARA                 27.6(-6.4)     12.0(-5.0) 

 SOLAPUR               30.1(-5.9)    16.0(-3.9) 

KONKAN AND GOA*

 BOMBAY                     27.9(-3.3)         19.6(-2.0) 

 SCZ                           28.0(-4.8)         15.0(-4.8) 

 ALIBAG                      26.3(-4.1)         16.9(-2.7)

 RATNAGIRI                 27.7(-4.0)         17.6(-3.2) 

 PANJIM                      30.8(-1.3)         19.3(-2.8) 

 MARATHWADA*

 OSMANABAD              29.0(-5         13.4(-5.7)

 AURANGABAD            26.4(-7.5)     14.2(-1.9)

 PARBANI                    29.4(-6.1)     17.4(-1.2)

 NANDED                    29.0(-6.7)     15.0(-2.4) 

Mumbai SCZ 2015 averages :

Jan - > 30.4 c / 16.3 c ( 0 mms )

Feb - > 32.2c / 17.8 c ( 0 mms )

Himachal Pradesh gets extended spell of heavy rains,  ending 8.30 am on 03.03.2015

in mm (min 30 mm)

Arki - 111
Naina Devi - 63
Jateon Barrage - 62
Kandaghat - 62
Dharmpur - 57
Paonta Sahib - 56
Kotkhai - 55
Sarahan - 54
Nahan - 52
Kheri - 52
Solan - 51 
Gohar - 49
Nauni - 47
Renuka - 46
Una - 45
Shimla CPRI - 45
Amb - 44
Jubbarhatti - 40
Bharwara - 39
Shimla - 38
Tinder - 38
Dharamshala - 36
Seobagh- 36
Bhandal - 36
Palampur - 30
Shahpur - 30
Yaswant Nagar - 30

2nd day of rains in Uttra Pradesh, ending 8.30 am 03.03.2015

Western Disturbance (W.D) as an upper air cyclonic circulation now lies over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir and extends upto 4.5 km above mean sea level with a trough aloft roughly along Longitude 70.0°E and north of Latitude 20.0°N.

in mm (min 20 mm)

Baheri - 70
Puranpur - 67
Bareilly - 49
Muhammadi - 43
Nighasan - 43
Nighasan - 40
Hindon - 35
Hasanpur - 33
Chayal - 31
Allahabad - 30
Bara - 30
Narora - 28
Nareni - 26
Aligarh - 24
Muzaffarnagar - 24
Tundla - 21
Sambhal - 21
Agra - 20
Shahbad - 20
Lalganj - 20
Kanpur - 20
Moradabad - 20

A quick Observation:
As on 2 nd March (Monday ) Morning :
New Delhi:  Max 19.0c   Min 14.8c  and  Rain 56.8 mms
Pune:           Max 18.9c   Min 14.8c  and  Rain 10.5 mms

Maharashtra 's Phenomenal Day temperatures for 1st March...Shown as  Max (1st March), Dep from Normal, Min , Dep from normal and day's rainfall.

MADHYA MAHARASHTRA*

 POONA                            18.9(-14.4)                 14.1( 0.9)                   08.0  (44 mms overnight)
 LOHGAON                       19.6(-14.4)                 15.0( 0.0)                  12.0

 JALGAON                         25.8(-8.8)                  14.8(-0.5)                    13.0
 KOLHAPUR                      24.0(-10.0)                 16.6(-1.0)                   11.0
 MAHABLESHWAR         15.9(-13.0)                 12.2(-3.0)                   019.0  (36 mms overnight)
 MALEGAON                     21.0(-13.2)                 16.0( 2.2)                   nil nil
 NASIK                               20.5(-12.2)                 15.0( 1.9)                   00.2
 SANGLI                             22.8(-12.1)                 17.0( 0.9)                   06.0
 SATARA                           20.6(-12.3)                 15.0(-0.7)                   06.0
 SOLAPUR                        27.8(-7.6)                    15.9(-3.3)                   00.5

KONKAN AND GOA*
 BOMBAY                         26.5(-4.0)               19.4(-1.7)         nil nil
 SCZ                                 28.3(-3.8)              18.6(-0.5)           nil nil
 ALIBAG                            27.2(-2.7)               18.2(-0.9)          00.3
 RATNAGIRI                     28.5(-3.3)              18.0(-2.3)           32.0
 PANJIM                           30.6(-1.5)               21.5( 0.0)          12.0
 DHANU                           27.0(-2.3)               19.8( 0.7)           08.0

MARATHWADA*

OSMANABAD                  23.0(-10.8)               13.0(-5.0)               02.0
AURANGABAD               17.6(-15.6)               13.0(-2.0)              10.0
PARBANI                         22.3(-12.4)               16.2(-1.4)               06.0

BEED                              19.5(-14.5)                15.1(-1.2)

VIDARBHA*

AKOLA                      20.1(-13.8)         16.1(-1.3)                  08.0 
AMRAOTI                 18.0(-15.9)          15.0(-3.2)                 17.0
BULDHANA              16.7(-14.7)          13.8(-3.9)                13.0
BRAMHAPURI          28.1(-5.3)            19.3( 2.2)                 01.0
CHANDRAPUR         32.0(-2.8)            20.0( 2.0)                nil nil
NAGPUR                    22.0(-11.1)          17.9( 1.5)                06.0
Washim                      19.0                    15.4                         nil nil
WARDHA                   20.7(-12.8)           16.5(-0.8)               12.0
YEOTMAL                 17.0(-16.3)          14.0(-4.7)                18.0

Author's Note:
Day's high in New Delhi was lower than Vagaries' estimate of 21c...it was 19c on Sunday..17 mms rains was measured..Safdarjung total: 25.2 mm from this WD till 5:30 pm..and will continue as given in previous post.Vagaries' target ..45 mms till Monday evening
,
we had predicted a high of 21c, against which we saw 19c in Delhi on Sunday. And as far as rains are concerned, it almost matches with the map put up for Sunday,,Waqas just confirmed the heavy rains in Lahore and sialkot (as per the green colour shown)..." downpours in Gujrat,sialkot and Lahore ... Lahore reported 25 mm in 50 minutes...still continue"

2nd day of very heavy rains in Maharashtra, ending 8.30 am on 02.03.2015

Western Disturbance (W.D) as an upper air cyclonic circulation now lies over north Pakistan and extends upto 3.6 km above msl with a trough aloft roughly along Longitude 68.0°E and north of Latitude 15.0°N. Due to deepening of the westerly trough into central Arabian sea, wind confluence is continuing over central India and neighbourhood.

in mm (60 mm)

Ratnara - 130
Mundikota - 130
Paraswada - 117
Kardi - 110
Tiroda - 110
Rajoli - 110
Bhandara - 100
Ravanwadi - 98
Bela - 98
Thanegaon - 95
Gangazari - 94
Kargaon - 93
Kamtha - 92
Wadegaon - 90
Mahagaon - 90
Pachkhedi - 89
Mohadi - 86
Malewada - 85
Mandhal - 84
Varthi - 83
Akodi - 78
Weltur - 75
Tulasani - 74
Pahela - 74
Sakoli - 72
Davva - 72
Bhiwapur - 71
Mauda - 69
Dasgaon - 68
Nand - 68
Dhanla - 65
Nimkheda - 65
Mohadi - 65
Makardhokda - 64
Devrukh - 63
Khamari - 62
Kuhi - 62
Salwan - 62
Turkewadi - 62
Shivani - 62
Kodamendi - 61
Lamaj - 60
Kanhalgaon - 60
Khat - 60
Dhargaon - 60
Kondha - 60
Pavani - 60
Aamgaon - 60
Satephala - 60
Khapari - 60
Kandri - 60

Uttar Pradesh's Rainest day, ending 8.30 am on 02.03.2015

Western Disturbance (W.D) as an upper air cyclonic circulation now lies over north Pakistan and extends upto 3.6 km above msl with a trough aloft roughly along Longitude 68.0°E and north of Latitude 15.0°N. Due to deepening of the westerly trough into central Arabian sea, wind confluence is continuing over central India and neighbourhood.

in mm (20 mm)

Tilhar - 84
Khekra - 74
Shamli - 71
Chitrakoot - 53
Muzaffarnagar - 52
Kanpur - 49
Baraut -43
Banda - 41
Meerut - 38
Nareni - 37
Hardoi - 30
Charkari - 29
Lucknow - 27
Hapur - 24
Sikandra - 24
Hasanpur - 23
Lalganj - 22
Allahabad - 21
Nighasan - 20

Haryana's heaviest spell of rain this year, ending 8.30 am on 02.03.2015

Western Disturbance (W.D) as an upper air cyclonic circulation now lies over north Pakistan and extends upto 3.6 km above msl with a trough aloft roughly along Longitude 68.0°E and north of Latitude 15.0°N. Due to deepening of the westerly trough into central Arabian sea, wind confluence is continuing over central India and neighbourhood.

in mm (30 mm)

Jhahhar - 146
Naraingarh - 122
Karnal - 97
Narvana - 91
Uchani - 87
Ganaur - 82
Chacchrauli - 78
Narayangarh -75
Ambala - 73
Sonipat - 70
Chandigarh - 64
Kurukshetra - 63
Barara - 62
Panchkula - 61
Beri - 47
Kaul - 46
Faridabad - 45
Kaithal - 42
Hissar - 35
Balsamand - 35
Kalanur - 30
Hansi - 30
Palwal - 30
Sadalpur - 30

3rd day of Heavy rains in Kashmir, ending 8.30 am on 02.03.2015

Western Disturbance (W.D) as an upper air cyclonic circulation now lies over north Pakistan and extends upto 3.6 km above msl with a trough aloft roughly along Longitude 68.0°E and north of Latitude 15.0°N. Due to deepening of the westerly trough into central Arabian sea, wind confluence is continuing over central India and neighbourhood.

in mm (30 mm)

Katra - 129
Udhampur IAF - 100
Banihal - 79
Jammu - 72
Batote - 68
Chatha - 67
Govindapura - 66
Bhaderwah - 63
Qazigund - 59
Kukernag - 43
Kawa - 41
Pahalgam - 35
Srinagar - 35
Gulmarg - 34
Khudwani - 30
Kupwara - 30

Uttrakhand gets widespread rains, ending 8.30 am on 02.03.2015

Western Disturbance (W.D) as an upper air cyclonic circulation now lies over north Pakistan and extends upto 3.6 km above msl with a trough aloft roughly along Longitude 68.0°E and north of Latitude 15.0°N. Due to deepening of the westerly trough into central Arabian sea, wind confluence is continuing over central India and neighbourhood.

in mm (20 mm)

Dehradun - 72
Deoprayag - 72
Ranichwari - 71
Jollygrant - 63
Mussorie - 60
Nainital - 60
Kasya - 60
Koteshwar - 53
Mukteshwar - 50
Srinagar - 47
Pantnagar - 46
Champawat - 46
Marora - 45
Haridwar - 44
Uttarkashi - 42
Bharsar - 41
Roorke - 38
Tehri - 37
Rishikesh - 35
Kalagarh - 31
Nandkeshri - 30
Jakholi - 28
Pithoragarh - 24  
Joshimath - 23
Karnaprayag - 23
Rudraprayag - 20

Heaviest Rains in Himachal this year, ending 8.30 am on 02.03.2015

Western Disturbance (W.D) as an upper air cyclonic circulation now lies over north Pakistan and extends upto 3.6 km above msl with a trough aloft roughly along Longitude 68.0°E and north of Latitude 15.0°N. Due to deepening of the westerly trough into central Arabian sea, wind confluence is continuing over central India and neighbourhood.

in mm (40 mm)

Renuka - 149
Sirmaur - 122
Kandaghat - 122
Dharmpur - 120
Kasauli - 119
Nahan - 116
Sangraha - 115
Solan - 89
Amb - 85
Rajgarh - 84
Nauni - 83
Palampur - 81 
Una - 81
Kahu - 80
Mehre - 79
Chail - 78
Annu - 70
Bangana - 70
Gohar - 69
Bhandal - 68
Jubbarhatti - 68
Jhandutta - 67
Berthin - 66
Sarahan - 66
Paonta Sahib - 66
Kothipura - 65
Bilaspur - 60
Bharwara - 59
Dharamashala - 58
Hamripur - 57
Manali - 54
Rohru - 52
Chelsea - 51
Kasol - 47
Shimla CPRI - 45
Shimla - 44
Sundernagar - 43
Hipa - 42
Shahpur - 41
Kangra - 40

All India Highest 24hr rainfall of 2015 in Maharashtra, ending 8.30 am on 01.03.2015

The Western Disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation over Afghanistan & adjoining Pakistan extending upto 3.1 km above mean sea level persists with a trough aloft roughly along Latitude 15.0°N. Due to deepening of the westerly trough into central Arabian sea, a wind confluence is continuing over central India and neighbourhood.

in mm (min 40 mm)

Murtajapur - 169
Akot - 105
Telhara - 90
Barshitakli - 90
Mangaon - 70
Asegaon - 55
Yeotmal - 54
Mahuli - 54
Yedgaon - 53
Pune Pashan - 53
Pirangut - 53
Dawargaon - 53
Patur - 50
Ghuikhed - 50
Akola - 50
Tala - 50
Tiwasa - 49
Kude - 49
Shendurjan - 49
Rajgurunagar - 48
Wada - 48
Pune Chinchwad - 47
Warha - 47
Kadus - 47
Mozari - 47
Vayphad - 46
Chandur - 45
Pune City - 44
Pune Cagmo - 44
Talegaon - 44
Pune City - 44
Chincholi - 44
Pune AP - 43
Nandgaon - 43
Rajgurunagar - 43
Khed - 43
Parasapur - 43
Wadali - 42
Aambawade- 42
Pabal - 42
Pune Magarapatta - 41
Warkhed - 40
Mulshi - 40
Pawana - 40
Sangamner - 40
Gunjawani - 40
Chikhaldara - 40
Dhamangaon - 40
Golegoan - 40
Kurha - 40
Paud - 40
Kale - 40
Arvi - 40
Babulgaon - 40
Alandi - 40
Badanera - 40
Shivani - 40
Palaskhed - 40
Talegaon - 40
Bhatkuli - 40
Dattapur - 40
Giroli - 40
Pune Lavale - 40
Loni - 40
Pune NDA - 40
Otur - 40
Papal - 40
Benoda - 40
Dhamangaon - 40
Dhamangaon - 40
Male - 40
Ghodegaon - 40
Sawalikheda - 40
Mahuli - 40
Shirkhed - 40

2nd day of rains in Tamil Nadu as Dindugul gets battered, ending 8.30 am on 01.03.2015

The cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and adjoining Sri Lanka has also become less marked.

in mm (min 5 mm)

Manjalparapu - 91
Thadiyankudisai - 72
Marudhanadi Dam - 50
Idappadi - 36
Kulesekharam - 31
Pongalur - 32
Avinasi - 31
Thandikudi - 27
Kangayam - 25
Pegumbahallah - 24
Vellakoil - 23
Konganapuram - 21
Pechiparai - 20
Sivagiri - 18
Periyanayakkanpalayam - 17
Morappur - 17
Kundha Bridge - 16
Nambiyur - 15
Karur - 14
Srivilliputhur - 12
Kadamaparai - 13
Sarcarsamakulam - 11
Tiruppur - 10
Pappireddipatti - 10
Sankarankoil - 10
Kovilpatti - 10
Chennimalai - 9
Harur - 9
Manamadurai - 8
Sattur - 8
Pykara - 8
Macdonaldschoultry - 6
Glenmorgan - 6
Perundurai - 5
Gobi - 5
Uttukkuli - 5
Manur - 5
Periyar - 5
Pillur - 5
Annur - 5
Manalar - 5
Upper Kodayar - 5


Vagaries Rainman

Posted Saturday Night...

Come March and Mumbai will have a cool day, with occasional rains in the daytime. Cloudy will keep the day temperature cold at about 21c till the afternoon. We may expect around 15-20 mms in the day on Sunday.
Pune will be rainy and cold on Sunday, with most of the day staying below 20c, at least till late afternoon. Showers in the day will total almost 35-40 mms. A wet day indeed !

After a hot Saturday, Akola region will be cold, with some fairly showers on Sunday. Showers will be only amounting to about 10-15 mms, but well distributed in the day. Mango raw fruits may be damaged, and the mango flowers will be severely affected. Harvested crops need to be covered and protected right away.

Vagaries Weather at 11 p.m IST Saturday: Current temp: 19.9c...rain till 11.pm ...9.1 mms

Goa gets rains from the westerly trough, ending 8.30 am on 01.03.2015

The Western Disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation over Afghanistan & adjoining Pakistan extending upto 3.1 km above mean sea level persists with a trough aloft roughly along Latitude 15.0°N. Due to deepening of the westerly trough into central Arabian sea, a wind confluence is continuing over central India and neighbourhood.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Ponda - 54
Pernem - 47
Sanguem - 44
Margao - 36
Valpoi - 36
Canacona - 35
Dabolim - 31
Ela -  32
Panaji - 30
Quepem - 28
Sanquelim - 18
Mormugao - 17
Mapusa - 11

Telangana's 1st spell of Pre-monsoon rains, ending 8.30 am on 01.03.2015

The  upper air cyclonic circulation lies over north Chhattisgarh & adjoining East Madhya Pradesh extending upto  1.5 km above mean sea level persists.

in mm (min 20 mm)

Mudhole - 49
Madnoor - 41
Momnipet - 39
Ranjal - 38
Kodangal - 35
Peddemul - 35
Dongli - 35
Boath - 34
Sarangapur - 34
Saloora - 32
Tandur - 32
Kotgri -30
Kopparga - 29
Wanalpahad - 28
Damaragidda - 28
Madanpalle - 27
Abdullapur - 27
YedaPalle - 26
Doulatabad - 25
Nagareddipet - 25
Jukkal - 25
Somoor - 25
Rudrur - 23
Boadhan - 22
Birkoor - 21
Nizamabad - 20
Navipet - 20
Bansawada -20
Chitkul - 20
Narayankhed - 20
Algole - 20
Beervelli - 20
Fathepur - 20
Malchelma - 20
Bhoraj - 20
Manoor - 20
Bujarampet - 20
Minipur - 20
Kalher - 20

Andhra Pradesh gets 1st spell of Pre-monsoon rains, ending 8.30 am on 01.03.2015

The  upper air cyclonic circulation lies over north Chhattisgarh & adjoining East Madhya Pradesh extending upto  1.5 km above mean sea level persists.

in mm (min 20 mm)

Yerrakotapalle - 59
Devapatla - 51
Rajampet - 47
Kalkada - 45
Valasapalle - 39
Satyavedu - 37
Kandukuru - 35
Chilamathur - 31
Gandlur - 31
Motakatla - 29
Amadagur - 26
Simhadripuram - 24
Nallamada - 23
Kondakamarla - 22
Nimmanapalle - 20
Nambulipulikunta - 20
Kadiri - 20
Lakkiredripuram - 20
Ganjivaripalle - 20
Puttaparthi - 20
Nooliveedu - 20
Kadiri - 20

LWD gives 1st 100 mm rainfall in Karnataka, ending 8.30 am on 01.03.2015

The Western Disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation over Afghanistan & adjoining Pakistan extending upto 3.1 km above mean sea level persists with a trough aloft roughly along Latitude 15.0°N. Due to deepening of the westerly trough into central Arabian sea, a wind confluence is continuing over central India and neighbourhood.

in mm (min 20 mm)

Chamundibetta - 102
Kadadalamari - 96
Batahalli - 59
Chelur - 57
Hura - 53
Gowribidanur - 44
Ronuru - 42
Chillargi - 35
Yeragamballi - 34
Kudremani - 33
Gokarana - 31
Bidar - 30
Ghadasaya - 30 
Hankon - 30
Kumta - 28
Jagalbet - 28
Sadali - 28
Beladhara - 28
Hattargi - 27
Sutagatti - 27
Dongeragaon - 27
Kadra - 26
Londa - 26
Pathapalya - 26
Yelawala - 26
Rayalpad - 26
Bhalki - 26
Shirahatti - 26
Belguam - 25
Bugate Allur - 25
Thondebhavi - 24
Hunsehalli - 23
Nesargi - 23
Chandriki - 23
Gurmatkal - 23
Nittur - 22
Sulebhavi - 22
Mugutkan Hubli - 22
Hidkal Dam - 22
Santibastwad - 22
Chakkere - 21
Belgaum AP - 21
Bilekhalli - 21
BTM Layout - 21
Kadwad - 20
Bidi - 20
Mandikal - 20
Kanbargi - 0
Manhally - 20
Nirna - 20
Balale - 20
Kanva - 20
Vijaypura - 20
Palahalli - 20
Dharawad - 20
Biligere - 20
Jigani - 20
Hukkeri - 20

Tamil Nadu records 1st 100 mm rainfall of peninsular India of the year, ending 8.30 am on 28.02.2015

The cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and adjoining Srilanka persists and extends upto 0.9 kms a.s.l. Tamil Nadu gets 1st spell of rainfall after 2nd January this year. Its been a long gap since the last spell fell in Tamil Nadu. Theni, Tirunelveli, Pudukottai and Kanyakumari got most of the rains.

in mm (min 5 mm)

Sankarankoil - 108
Mylaudy - 79
Aranmanaipudur - 70
Theni - 46
Kalugumalai - 45
Kadamalaigundu - 45
Thucklay - 42
Manalar- 40
Radhapuram - 40
Thirumayam - 39
Kuruvikulam 39
Vazhapadi - 36
Vembakottai - 34
Thiruchuzhi - 30
Watrap - 30 
Ervangalar - 25
Narikudi - 25
Ponnamaravathi - 23
Jolarpet - 21
Thathiengrpet - 20
Penucondapuram - 19
Pechiparai - 18
Anthiyur - 18
Kulasekharam - 16
Uthamapalayam - 16
Pudupalayam - 16
Veerapandi - 15
Kallupatti - 13
Lower Kodayar - 12
Satankulam - 10
Yelagiri - 10
Mangalapuram - 10
Manamadurai - 9
Rajapalayam - 8
Barur - 8
Bodi - 8
Periyar - 7
Chinnakallar - 7
Sothuparai - 6
Lalgudi - 6
Sivakasi - 6
Sanmuganadhi - 5
Ramnathapuram Nicra - 5
Upper Kodayar - 5
Kodumudiyar Dam - 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted Friday Night:

Mumbai, with the temperatures dropping on Friday ( 27.2c at Colaba and 28.7c at Santa Cruz), we see the "tempo" for rains building up.

The SW winds we estimated are gearing up. With gaining momentum, we can expect about 20-25 mms rain from Saturday night - Sunday night in Mumbai, about 30 mms in Aurangabad, around 35 mms in Pune and a cool day at Roha (konkan) with about 40-45 mms from Saturday Night to Sunday Night.

Posted Thursday Night (26th):

As mentioned earlier, we see rains approaching Maharashtra and Gujarat this weekend.

As an upper air trough forms, with an embedded Low over central India, precipitation will commence over South Madhya Maharashtra (Pune, Sangli, Kolhapur)  and parts of Marathwada (Beed, Aurangabad)  and Vidharbha (Akola) from Saturday 28th night.
Light showers along Coast of Sindh, more in the East. Karachi can expect showers on Saturday, upto 10 mms.

Rains increasing on Sunday 1st March in Central Konkan. Some stations in Central Konkan and central interior Konkan regions like Roha can get around 15-20 mms.
Rains also medium in Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada. Hails likely in these regions.Heavy falls likely in Mahableshwar and parts of Pune district.
Could damage the mango in the raw fruit condition. 
Showers also expected in Saurashtra on Saturday evening and Sunday. Rajkot could expect around 5-7 mms. I would also estimate light rains  (around 3-5 mms) in Junagadh.

Mumbai: getting cloudy on Saturday. With SW winds, the chances of rains increase. Saturday will be cloudy, with some rain by evening. Night will see showers or thunder showers.
Sunday will be cloudy, cool and rain in parts of city. Some showers could be light to medium. Day's high around 26c. Crisp cool night. Amount of precipitation could be upto 20 mms.

Pune can also expect showers, from Saturday night. Some heavy on Sunday, amounting to total rains of around 15 mms. Sunday will be cool at around 23c as maximum.
Heavy thunder showers for Nagpur on Sunday afternoon/evening. Maybe around 20-25 mms. Gusty South winds.
Similarly, rains also expected in Akola region from Sunday thru Monday morning. Around 10 mms.
Goa can also get some showers on sunday. Most likely by late afternoon and night. Would expect around 5-10 mms in Goa.


New Delhi: Thunder showers, from Saturday night. Cloudy with gusty Sout-Easterly winds, and some showers on Sunday, Monday also seeing thundershowers. Accumulated rainfall from Saturday night thru Monday evening could be as high as 45-50 mms. Day will drop to 21c on Sunday.

For Aurangabad Friends...Appearing in  Lokmat Times of Friday 27th February

Rains expected this weekend:

As we see the end of February, Auragabad will witness a wet end of the Month. Saturday, 28th night, Aurangabad can get some showers with thunder. Normally, we can get some rains in March, and on 1st March, Sunday, again Aurangabad will have a cloudy and wet day with rains.
Currently, the city is warm showing temperatures around 35c in the day.The first day of March will be cold and cloudy, with the day temperatures not rising over 23/24c, against a normal of 32c. Around 15-20 mms rainfall expected.

Now, this is not going to be good news for the farmers and mango growers. The mango trees are already in the flowering stage and in many cases small fruits are already on the blooms. A little rain even can cause damage. But with the predicted rains, damage cannot be ruled. Even in the fields, ready and harvested cotton and wheat crops will be subject to unseasonale rains. This may result in rotting and spoiling the harvests.
Normally March does get a few rainy days, with the temperatures generally getting warmer.

More updates tonite by 11.30 pm IST

Rains lash Himachal for 2nd day, ending 8.30 am on 26.02.2015

The Western Disturbance (W.D.) as an upper air cyclonic circulation lies over North Pakistan & adjoining Jammu & Kashmir and extends upto mid- tropospheric levels. The Western Depression over central Pakistan and adjoining Punjab & north Rajasthan is now seen as an induced upper air cyclonic circulation over Punjab & neighbourhood and extends upto 0.9 km above mean sea level.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Bhandal - 66
Kheri - 49
Manali - 48
Saloni - 43
Chamba - 43
Reckon - 37
Palampur - 36
Jogindernagar - 35
Udaipur - 30
Bharmaur - 29
Rohru - 29
Kalatop - 28
Baijnath - 28
Bhoranj - 26
Jubbal - 26
Kasol - 25
Annu - 23
Dharamshala - 23
Kangra - 21
Hamirpur - 20
Seobagh - 20
Una - 17
Bajura - 14
Kalpa - 13
Majhouli - 13
Manikaran - 12
Kullu - 12
Bhuntar - 12
Kothipura - 10
Sarahan - 10
Sundernagar - 10
Mandi - 10
Bangana - 10

Kashmir gets moderate rains for 2nd day, ending 8.30 am on 26.02.2015

in mm (min 10 mm)

Bhanderwah - 43
Pahalagam - 37
Baramullah - 29
Quazigund - 28
Banhial - 28
Govindapura - 26
Katra - 24
Malangapura - 22
Srinagar - 21
Kukernag - 20
Kupawara - 20
Rambagh -20
Batote - 17
Gulmarg - 16
Zainapura - 15
Kawa - 10

Uttrakahand and Uttar Pradesh gets 1st spell of rains this year, ending 8.30 am on 26.02.2015

in mm (min 5 mm)

Uttarakhand

Joshimat - 37
Uttarkashi - 29
Mukteshwar - 25
Pithogarh - 22
Tehri - 21
Jakholi - 19
Ranichawari - 16
Champawat - 15
Nanital - 15
Pantnagar - 9
Almora - 6
Dehradun - 5


Uttar Pradesh

Kheri - 49
Meerut - 41
Hapur - 16
Hasanpur - 13
Philbit - 11
Sambhal - 10
Bareilley - 8
Nautanwa - 6
Baharich - 5

Vagaries Rainman

Posted Wednesday 25th Night....

Mumbai:As we see the day temperatures gradually falling since the last 2 days, we get surer of rains coming this weekend to Mumbai.
The maximum in the Day on Wednesday further fell to 30.2c at Colaba and 31.8c at SantaCruz, now in the "below normal" segment.
After recording 30/31c on Thursday, we see a further fall to 29/30c on Friday and Saturday.

As SW winds set in, this ensures clouds gathering by Saturday 28th evening, humidity increasing, and a possible shower on Saturday evening/night.

For Mumbai, Sunday 1st March will be cloudy with showers in the day, possible thunder in the evening. Today's estimate, I would put rain amount for Sunday at around 15 mms.

Saturday we will see rains covering most of Vidharbha. Sunday, Maharashtra will be covered . Interiors ( North Madhya Mah and Marathwada) will get rains, with hails. Details will be put up for Maharashtra on Thursday night.


Induced LPA strengthens as Western Depression gives Himachal rains, ending 8.30 am on 25.02.2015The Western Disturbance over North Pakistan and neighbourhood persists and the associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto mid­ tropospheric levels. The induced low pressure area is now seen as a Western Depression over central Pakistan and adjoining Punjab & north Rajasthan.

in mm (10 mm)

Kalatop - 62
Dalhousie - 62
Bhandal - 60
Chamba - 45
Udaipur - 45
Saloni - 44
Kheri - 35
Kasol - 31
Seobagh - 30
Manali - 25
Karsog - 25
Banjar - 24
Bijahi - 24
Dehra Gopipur - 23
Bhuntar - 19
Jubbarhatti - 19
Mashobra - 19
Bajura - 18
Shimla - 16
Chail - 16
Chelsea - 15
Manikaran - 14
Dharmashala - 13
Solan - 13
Hipa - 13
Nauni - 12
Kausali - 11
Kangra - 11
Sarhan - 11
Kandaghat - 11
Rohru - 11
Annu - 10
Reckon - 10
Nahan - 10
Palampur - 10
Mandi - 10

Induced Western Depression lashes Kashmir, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 25.02.2015

in mm (10 mm)

Banihal - 81
Kupwara - 69
Govindapura - 58
Baramulla - 55
Pahalgam - 52
Bhaderwah - 50
Kukernag - 49
Batote - 48
Srinagar - 45
Malangapura - 43
Khudwani - 41
Quazigund - 40
Gulmarg - 38
Zainapura - 29
Katra - 20
Jammu - 18
Chatha - 11

Rainfall - Vagaries Rainman

As per our estimate, Srinagar has measured 50 mms of rains from 24th upto 2.30 pm IST 25th, and Islamabad 28 mms in the same period....Heavy falls are also reported from other Stations in Pakistan including Murree. Isolated storms are reported from Punjab and Parts of Haryana.


Posted Monday 23rd Night:

As westerly winds set in, Mumbai day temperatures start receding...and show 35.5c at Santa Cruz on 23rd Monday...a major relief from the 38.8c on Sunday.....Gradual decrease day by day..till
Possible thunder  showers on Sunday 1st March.....Sunday could be as low as 26c in the Day ( tentative estimate)

Pune will hover around 35c till the weekend..expect some clouding and drizzles on Sunday 1st March.

Western disturbance F-4 moving eastwards into the Indian Sub Continent on schedule..
Heavy Falls expected in Northern Pakistan and Pak Punjab on 24th and 25th. 
Islamabad can get as much as 35 mms rains in 2 days. 
Gujarat (Pak Punjab) can expect  30 mms in 2 days from 24th evening.

On 25th Kashmir can expect heavy rains and snow . Srinagar may measure upto 45 mms. on 24th Night and 25th , 
Indian Punjab, Utterakhand , Western UP  and Haryana may get hailstorms. HP hills get another round of snow and rains in the plains.
Light rains in parts of Delhi on 25th...but much more coming from M-1

Southern Tamil Nadu and Kerala likely to get showers on 25th.

26th rains decrease in North, but isolated heavy falls in Idukki district and Ghats of Kerala.Rains continue in Kerala till 28th.

Bangalore gets warmer to reach 33c by Wednesday, before clouds and light rains come on 28th...

The buzz continues into March...and the first week is really active in North and Central India...M-1 (Another WD) moves in the North on 1st March.

Projected 250 hpa level Jet streams as on 27th February

An extended trough into the Arabian Sea and West Coast of India can bring rains and Thunder showers to parts of Central India, Saurashtra and North and Interior Maharashtra ,North Konkan (Including Mumbai) on 1st March.

More activity and sensation from 4th March as M-2 moves in...!!