Overall Maharashtra outlook till 1st June - Summer to continue, hot weather at most places!

With the recent strong WD trough disturbing the monsoon's northward progress and MJO entering unfavourable phases for Indian Ocean, it now seems that the monsoon ( In Maharashtra) may arrive at its normal average dates (and not before time).Monsoon onset seems to be significantly delayed from the forecast, no good rain are seen in Kerala at least till 4 June

Monsoon Dates Given below are likely dates.

Konkan: Warm and humid weather, with localized light shower at some places. No heavy rains anytime soon. 

Monsoon expected (as of now)..south Konkan/Goa 9th/10th June. North Konkan  (Mumbai ) 12th-13th June.

Madhya Maharashtra: Hot weather to continue. Patchy localised  thunderstorm development possible towards month end. These will be pre-monsoon/summer thundershowers, not providing much relief. Monsoon South Madhya Mah: around 9th-10th June. North Madhya Mah 13th- 15th June.

Marathwada: Very hot and mainly dry weather expected. Advised to avoid sowing till around 15th June. Monsoon around 16th June.

Vidarbha: Very hot weather to continue. Some localized thundershowers likely in eastern parts of Vidarbha in next 2 days, but days will heat up after that. Avoid sowing till around 15th June. Monsoon around 15th-17th June.

With negative iod likely to dominate the indian ocean this season

I have a feeling that models forecast can go wrong.

As weather models are heavily skewed with ENSO conditions and currently with La-Nina models just painting India with blue shades (above normal rain).

By Vag.Shreyas & Vag. VineetKumar

25th May..2022

Mumbai/Pune: Partly cloudy with high humidity..stray passing showers in some scattered parts of city will continue to tease. Proper Monsoon set around 11 th June..

Gujarat Monsoon approach tentative around 16th/18th June, Delhi 29th June.

 24th May.

For NW India & Delhi...Heat Relief....But few days delay for SWM ?

22nd May...Night Posting:

 FAQ: What about the South West Monsoon? 

The meteorological " Disturbances" In the aftermath of  Cyclone "Asani" In the West Coast of India, has stalled the progress to some extent. The UAC disturbed the set up. 

ITCZ is still around the Equator. 

Now, re-forming is happening, and the Somali winds are cooling the Sea around ( 20°) as of now. 

Upper SW winds will organise, and dump Monsoon rains over Kerala around 27th May. 

Expecting a little slow progress Northwards after the Kerala advance. ( For a week). 

Point wise for next 4 days... From Monday 23-26th

*Mumbai A mild drizzle on Saturday in few areas ..Does not mean Monsoon. Coming  week will be Hot/humid around 34- 35c...Actually feeling 38c..maybe light drizzle in some parts on Wed, Thursday.

For Mumbai, these are Pre Monsoon rains..Proper Monsoon still 15 days away.

* Pune will be getting cloudy after noon...around 35c, but the UV-Index climbs up to 10, 

*Konkan light to moderate passing showers this week.

* Vidharbh will see heat around 40- 43c

* Marathwada will be hot and dry. No rushing into sowing still.* मराठवाडा उष्ण आणि कोरडा राहील. पेरणीसाठी अद्याप घाई नाही.मान्सूनचे आगमन अजून १५ दिवस..जूनच्या पहिल्या आठवड्यात थोडा पाऊस

North India forecast: Temporary relief from the summer heat!! A moderate intensity Western Disturbance is expected to impact North India from tomorrow 23rd May. (Induced cyclonic circulation over Punjab and moisture from Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal) to cause moderate to strong dust storms and Thundershowers (with chance of some hail) across Punjab, Haryana, North Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and north Madhya Pradesh regions on 23-24th May. Hill Sataes could witness moderate rain/thunderstorms with heavy in some parts, while upper reaches could see snow.

Delhi NCR: Thunder Squalls expected on 23rd/24th..with a slight fall in day temperature to 37/38c. Later, Thunderstorm activity to expand Eastward towards Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh by 24th. Strong kalbaisakhis likely along northern east coast states.

Compilation by Shreyas & Rajesh.

.

 Weekend  Outlook: 20th/21st/22nd  May

Mumbai: Partly cloudy and Humid. Sweat and High UV levels at 9..So take care in extreme sun. Days at 34c, will actually feel as hot as 38c.

Mumbai Lakes/Water Position: 15 May 2022... 22.99% Storage of Total Capacity.

Combined live storage across all lakes compared to 18.87% same time last year.

Pune: Getting cloudy by afternoon, bringing (only) hopes of rain. Days around 37/38c.High UV levels at 9, so take care in extreme sun.

Posted on 20th May morning

As per the image posted yesterday evening under the snippets section, we saw some UAC induced thundershowers in Maharashtra! Here are some figures ending at 8:30am on 20/05/2022(in mm):

Sangli district:

1.Umadi:73

2.Sangli:61

3.Kirloskarwadi:57

4.Shigaon:50

5.Siddhewadi:45

Kolhapur district:

1.Kagal:50

2.Kolhapur:46

3.Tandulwadi:40

4.Nitawade:39

5.Gaganbawda:35

6.Mandukali:33

7.Dajipur:27

Satara district:

1.Urmodi:45

2.Sandavali:35

3.Nagthane:32

4.Apshinge:28

5.Shirdhon:25

6.Nawaja:19

Pune district:

1.Daund:27

2.Saswad & Velhe:16

3.Gunjavane:12

4.Sansar:9

5.LoniKalbhor:6

6.Katraj:5

Ahmednagar district:

1.Shrigonda:38

2.Kolgaon:6

Solapur district:

1.Solapur:36

2.Diksal:6

Data Credits: RTSFROS & IMD

Complied By: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

 19th May

As on 19th, Monsoon not been established in Kerala, and therefore there is no official declaration of the Monsoon ( By IMD or Vagaries)....Explained below, it will be another 4/5 days before the Monsoon sets in over Kerala in strength.

A brief note on Southwest Monsoon - When Onset happens over Kerala, an offshore trough forms off the coast. Cyclonic circulations embedded in the UAC are common features, which help in northward advance of the Monsoon. 

At present, at 850  levels, the west/northwest wind convergence is seen near Kerala due to the UAC located near Kerala/TN border. There is no offshore trough. 

Tropical easterly jet at 200 hpa hasn't set in either. Additionally, the westerlies are not seen extending well into Tamil Nadu due to the UAC. 

With heavy falls over Kerala, the notion of Monsoon rains seems practical, but not as a set system...Such pseudo onset like conditions have happened  in the past, and mentioned in Vagaries a few times earlier. The rain with low clouds feels like Monsoon. But technically, considering the various above factors, proper atmospheric conditions of the Southwest Monsoon have not been established..