Friday, September 20, 2019

Posted Friday Morning:
Rainfall till 8.30 am Friday 20th: Colaba 81 mms, Malabar Hill 57 mms, Nariman Point 50 mms, Vagaries 46 mms, CSMT 40 mms, Worli 35 mms, Santa Cruz 3 mms. 
Compiled by Vagarian Abhijit.
So, Thursday Day/Night rainfall more concentrated in South and Central Mumbai  (40-80 mms).

Localised flooding in Sion, Kurla and Mahalaxmi.

Arabian Sea Low forms as AS-2..expected to track W/NW.

Mumbai: Low will bring strong gusty winds to Mumbai on Friday and Saturday. As the AS-2 moves away, Rainfall quantum decreasing for Mumbai from Saturday afternoon. (Friday fore cast given below & in snippets. (As showers Frequency increased).

Pune rains decreasing from Saturday. Can increase again by Tuesday as UAC expected in Marathwada/South Madhya Maharastra by 25th.

High pressure domination at 850 seen over West Rajasthan/Sindh. other criteria except 200 hp Jet streams fulfilled for withdrawal. Expect to fall in line in 2 days.

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Posted Thursday Morning:

The expected overnight Thunder showers on Wednesday Night brought 69 mms in Santa Cruz and 17 mms to Colaba. Vagaries gauge recorded 32 mms.

Rainfall intensity increasing to more frequent showers with heavy falls in some areas on Thursday 19th and Friday 20th. ( 40-80 mms). Localised flooding possible.

No major large scale disruptions...

Low expected in Arabian Sea on 20th:...Good weekend rains for Saurashtra

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

                  COSMIC RAYS AND CLOUDS
            On the 17th of August this year, a few of us from Vagaries had the privilege of visiting the Cloud Physics Laboratory in Mahabaleshwar, on the invitation of IITM, under guidance from Rajesh sir. It was interesting to see the various instruments used to study the formation of clouds and their various attributes using physical and chemical methods.
One of the instruments we saw was a cloud chamber. This is used to analyse the formation of water droplets when a charged particle passes by. One of the reasons for formation of water droplets that eventually collectively form a cloud which produces rain, is cosmic rays.
Cosmic rays are atomic fragments that rain down on Earth from outside the solar system. Their origins are mysterious and some scientists claim supernovas as the point of origin. Recently the Pierre Auger Observatory ( Argentina) studied the trajectory of 30,000 particles.  "It concluded that there is a difference in how frequently these cosmic rays arrive, depending on where you look. While their origins are still nebulous, knowing where to look is the first step in learning where they came from, the researchers said. ("
The Solar activity/cosmic ray link climate modulation system can be summarized by the following chart:

So essentially cosmic rays help in the formation of 1-2nm sized Ions. These coalesce to form 20nm sized and then 50nm sized Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN). These lead to further 15micrometer sized cloud droplets.
But what is the actual link between cosmic rays and clouds? Mr. Henrik Svensmark, Danish scientist, recently made a presentation at the 12th International Climate Conference in Munich, where he showed the link between solar activity via cosmic rays and cloud cover and how this cloud cover influences climate.

"Observations and proxy data show that “when you have high cosmic rays, you have a cold climate” because of greater cloud cover. According Svensmark, the net effect of clouds is to cool the Earth by up to 30 W/m2.
Clouds are extremely important for the Earth’s energy budget. The net effect is about 20 to 30 watts per square meter.”
That figure is great in terms of impact on climate change, and it is grossly neglected by CO2-fixated climate scientists.("
See the following chart:
His experiments confirm that solar cycles cause energy changes of 1.5W/m2 on the oceans of the world. It has an 11 year cycle that is consistent with climate changes over the Holocene and even going upto a 100 million years.
Another aspect is the link between cosmic rays and solar sunspots. Solar minimum ( when there are zero sunspots on the surface of the sun) causes lower radiation which in turn allows more cosmic rays to penetrate the solar system and reach Earth. This link is visible in the cosmic ray count chart shown below:

Below is the chart of the solar cycle:
You can clearly see a 11 year cycle in the cosmic ray counts, consistent with the sunspot solar cycle of the sun.
As the debate over global warming continues it is important to look at evidence that is emerging in different fields too. The link between cosmic rays and clouds is one such link that needs more study. 

Monday, September 16, 2019

Posted Monday 16th September:

Anti Cyclone High at 850 hp establishing over West Rajasthan by 19th, and BB 11 steering N/NE from North M.P.

Low likely by 19th in North Bay.

Mumbai Santa Cruz has set a new Record for Monsoon Season Rains, after 65 years.:

The Current total rainfall for the Monsoon this year is 3462.8 mms, till 8.30 am 16th September, ...and counting.

The previous highest for Monsoon season was 3452 mms in 1954.
The Annual rainfall record is however at 3784.9 mms.

New September Record also coming:

The wettest September for Santa Cruz station is 920  mms of 1954. 
Currently till 16th Sept 8.30 am..909 mms....

Mumbai: Monday and Tuesday will get occasional heavy showers in parts of city. Wednesday a thunder shower in some parts by evening. Monsoon is here to stay till this month end at least.
Pune : To be ready for soome increase from Wednesday. 
Good rains in Rayalseema;
Massive rains in Kurnool - Kadapa belt. Pennar should see some flow and Somasilla should see increase in inflow.
in mm

Gospadu, Kurnool - 290
Deebaguntla, Kurnool - 199
Mahanandi, Kurnool - 163
MPP Elementry School, Kurnool - 160
Ururi Chintala, Anantapur - 158
Dhodium, Kadapa - 151
Nandyal, Kurnool - 126
Panchayat Office, Kurnool - 123
Gundlakunta, Kadapa - 119
Chagalamarri, Kurnool - 114
Old Bustand Complex, Kurnool - 112
Talamanchi Patnam, Kadapa - 110
MPP School, Kurnool - 110
Raju Palem, Kadapa - 108
YPPM College, Kurnool - 104
Market Yard, Kurnool - 104
Mangapatnam, Kadapa - 103
Nandyala Agro, Kurnool - 103
Alla Gadda, Kurnool - 101
Z.P Boys High School, Kurnool - 101
Muthyalapadu, Kurnool - 100
Water Tank, Kurnool - 100
MPDO Office, Kurnool - 97
Gandlur, Kadapa - 100

Kalukogta, Kurnool - 100

From PJ.

Sunday, September 15, 2019

Lamaj, a station in Satara District of Maharashtra reaches 
10426 mms of rain this monsoon season 
Highest in India 

Saturday, September 14, 2019

Posted Saturday 14th Sept Night:

Recent heavy rains (from a steady BB-11) have boosted the rain amounts and total of Gujarat:

Totals till 14th : Umerpada (till 12th) 3611 mms, Mangrol (till 12th) 2644 mms, Valsad crossing 100": 2587 mms, Baroda 1712, Surat 1396 mms,  Bharuch (till 12th) 1339 mms, Rajkot 1164 mms, Porbundar 923 mms, Naliya (Kutch) 771 mms, Ahmadabad 731 mms,

Rains will reduce, except in Valsad and south Gujarat coast willl precipitate till Monday.

Mumbai: Sunday 15th : Partly cloudy and sunny periods. Few passing showers. 
                Monday 16th : Cloudy with occasional showers.

Pune: Usual cloudy with light rains, but increase from Wednesday.

A very Interesting Article by GSB  on Cosmic Rays and Clouds will be Published on Vagaries on Monday Evening. Not to be missed !

Thursday, September 12, 2019

A) Will Mumbai create September Month new record ..

Mumbai (IMD Scz) has experienced it's 4th wettest September rains (803 mms) within first 12 days of the month , 
1st : 920 mms (1954) , 2nd : 904 mms(1993) , 
3rd: 821 mms(1981) , 4th : 803 mms (2019) and continuing..

With good rains expected during the next 3 days and thundershowers expected during 3rd week of September, it remains to be seen whether Mumbai (IMD Scz) will set a new September monthly rain record..
This July, IMD Scz missed all time July monthly rain record by a mere 4 mms .. (July 2019.. 1465 mms against all time July 2014 record of 1469 mms )
So ,once again this season it has a chance to make the records straight.. 

September 2019 rains in Mumbai region :
South Mumbai - Vagaries (Mahalaxmi): 859 mms 

IMD Scz (Vile Parle) : 803 

Tulshi : 1073
Vihar :941
Thane city : 900 
Vasai: 752
Badlapur: 654

B) INDIA Seasonal Rains 

  • Reports to be confirmed say Lamaj (Mahabaleshwar Taluka) in the Sahyadri range of Maharashtra has received 10,000 mms rains this season topping India ( unconfirmed yet) 
  • Tamhini ghat (100 kms from Mumbai)seasonal is at 8980 mms
  • Matheran seasonal is at 6657 mms

  • Cherrapunji seasonal is 6529 mms (from 1st Jan is 8501 mms)
  • Mawsynram seasonal is 6570 mms

  • Some other regions : 
  • Nepal : Pokhara seasonal ..1797 mms (from 1 Jan is 2560 mms)
  • Sub Himalayan Bengal .. Alipurduar seasonal 3206 mms (from 1 Jan is 4169 mms)
  • South Gujarat .. Umerpada seasonal 3611
  • North Gujarat .. Quant 2100
  • Rajasthan (East) .. Dug 2256
  • Aravalli Range..Mount Abu 1520
  • Satpura Range .. Toranmal 2336
  • Eastern Ghats .. Munchingiputtu 2392
  • Odisha .. Deogaon 2432
  • Madhya Pradesh..Khandwa 1830
  • Himachal (Kangra) .. Dharmsala 1550 
  • Terai .. Kishanganj 1404

C) Seasonal 2019 rains in Mumbai region :
South Mumbai - Vagaries (Mahalaxmi): 3070mms 

IMD Scz (Vile Parle) : 3357 (all time record 3785 mms in 1958)

Tulshi : 4929
Vihar :4050
Thane city : 4260
Panvel : 4407
Vasai: 3192
Badlapur : 5328

IMD SCZ (Vile Parle) -

Vihar and Tulshi (behind the marked hills on the left of the photo)- 

Posted Friday Morning: Mumbai: Rainfall till 8.30 am Friday 20th: Colaba 81 mms, Malabar Hill 57 mms, Nariman Point 50 mms, Vagaries 46 m...