CycloneMichaung has moved very close to Nellore, Andhra Pradesh. Heavy to extremely heavy rains expected over coastal areas of south AP. 

Chennai rains will gradually decrease from early morning tomorrow and the situation will get better.

 

Very Heavy rains and water-logging reported across Chennai as western sector of Severe Cyclone Michaung batters north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts!

Chennai city 229.2 mm till 8:30 pm

Chennai Airport 180.2 mm till 8:30 pm

Rainfall will decrease significantly from tomorrow. 

Chennai, north TN flooded as cyclone inches closer to coast

Very heavy rain going on in Chennai since last night due to cyclone outer bands. The cyclone has now intensified to 45knots.

Due to very slow movement of cyclone Chennai is likely to keep getting heavy rain at least till 3-4pm. More flooding is expected.

Shriharikota very heavy rain is expected till night hrs of 4 Dec.

Nellore very heavy rain is expected to continue till early morning hrs of 5 December.

 

Cyclone Michanung will steadily intensify till 4 December, landfall on 5 December

Cyclone Michaung currently maintaining an intensity of 35 knots as per IMD.

Currently, low wind shear and robust poleward outflow supported by high SSTs and moderate ocean heat content will favor the cyclone to steadily intensify till the evening/night of 4 December. It is likely to reach a peak intensity of 90-100kmph by the night of 4 December. As of now, rapid intensification chances are low.

This is the 4th cyclone of the post-monsoon season in the north Indian Ocean. This is the highest number of cyclones in the north Indian Ocean post-monsoon season after 2019.

Figure: Ocean heat content (kJ/cm2) along with the forecasted path of the cyclone. Source: CIRA

Figure: Vertical wind shear as on 3 December 1130IST (Green lines indicate low shear which is favourable for cyclone intensification). Source: CIMSS

From 4 December night, due to land interaction and increased vertical wind shear, the cyclone is likely to stop intensifying. Latest model guidance suggests that coastal Andhra Pradesh is likely to get rain in excess of 200-250mm on 4-5 December.

Figure: Rainfall (mm) forecast by IMD-GFS model

3rd December......

Cyclone Michaung...!

Latest Synopsis :DVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       

                    ADT-Version 9.1                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  03 DEC 2023    Time :   033000 UTC
      Lat :   11:42:18 N     Lon :   82:20:00 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                2.6 /1005.5mb/ 37.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                2.6     2.7     2.8

 Center Temp : -34.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -63.1C

 Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY 
              Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.96 ARC in LT GRAY 
               at Lat:  12:18:00 N  Lon:  82:31:47 E 

Third cyclone of the season in Bay of Bengal

 A cyclone will form in the Bay of Bengal by the night of 2 Dec/morning of 3 dec.

This will be the third cyclone of the post-monsoon season in the Bay of Bengal.

For the 1st time after 2018, all the three months (Oct, Nov and Dec) of the post-monsoon season will have a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal.

Multi-model ensemble indicates that due to close proximity with land, this system can maximum intensify up to 90-95kmph. 

Due to weak steering the system is currently moving at a very low speed.

This system likley to hit central Andhra coast on 5 December with winds close to 90kmph.

SST in the south Bay of Bengal continue to remain 1-2C above normal.

Currently, the system is in a low wind-shear environment. However, from 4 December onwards high wind shear is likely to affect the system which will restrict the intensification of this system.

Weekend ( 2nd - 4th) Outlook:

Mumbai: Days warm around 31°c and nights around 21°c.

Partly cloudy skies possible with smoggy conditions ( due to atmospheric inversion trap). AQI average exp around 150.

 November Average 👇

--------------------------------------------------

Gujarat: Localized showers or a thunderstorm possible in parts of Saurashtra and around Ahmedabad, Bharuch, Vadodara, Surat regions during Saturday 2nd and Sunday 3rd December. Rainfall will be unevenly spread

 30th November 

Possibility of a potential cyclone in the South Bay  remains. Various models are indicating its possible formation around December  2/3 rd 2023.

A well-marked low-pressure (BB 14) area persists over the southeast Bay of Bengal, expected to strengthen in the next 24 hours with a northwest track.

Easterly winds have resulted in a trough extending from Indonesia to Sri Lanka. The embedded Well Marked Low will get enriched moisture.

This could mark the fourth tropical storm in the Bay this year. 

As different models differ on the final track which is uncertain,Despite differing model predictions, Vagaries estimate a possible track to North T.N. / South A.P. Coast. 

 Hence heavy to very heavy rains could be  expected over Tamil Nadu and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.