Vagaries of the Weather ©

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Posted Wednesday 19th September Night:

The system, BB-11, now a well marked low, estimated at 17.5N and 87.9E, East of Vizag. Estimated core pressure is 998 mb and estimated winds at 25-30 knts in the Southern segment of the system BB-11.

Due low resistance, it will develop into a Depression and proceed to a Deep Depression stage by 21st. Around 21st morning, BB-11 will cross the Odisha Coast.

Heavy rains likely in Odisha and Northern A.P. next two days.

The system will be short lived and will fizzle out into a Low within 24 hrs. Low will travel W/NW into Chattisgarh and East M.P.
An UAC will ultimately fizzle out over North M.P.

Heavy rains likely in M.P. on Friday and Saturday.

Delhi :Heavy and occasional showers on Saturday/Sunday.Increase in weekend rain intensity.
Jabalpur; Showers and windy Friday.

Mumbai: Occasional Showers in the city on Thursday (10-20 mms) and Friday (15-25 mms). Rainfall increasing on Saturday and Sunday.
Thunder Showers will be prevalent in interior Maharashtra's Madhya Mah.regions from Friday thru next 8 days.

Satellite images of OLR and UTH and upper winds indicate the withdrawal of the South West Monsoon from West Rajasthan and Kutch and Southern/Central Sindh.

Saturday, September 15, 2018

One more wonderful analysis on cyclone activity for us written by Vineet Kumar Singh (Vagarian)

An overview of cyclone activity in northern hemisphere from 1 January 2018 to 15 September 2018.

Click here for Doc

Monday, September 10, 2018

A well compiled and exhaustive article on the subject
written by Vineet Kumar Singh (Vagarian)

Vineet has worked very hard for this analysis...A must read for all Meteorologists.

Causes and Analysis of the Below Normal Hurricane Activity in North Atlantic during June -August 2018.

Click here for Doc

Click here for Pdf

Saturday, September 08, 2018

8 September ..100 days of Monsoon 2018

Mumbai SCZ 2194 mms with 63 rainy days

( The far eastern townships of MMR have received upto 3500 mms with 80 rainy days and the surrounding ghats more than 7000 )

A) THE FIRST v/s NEXT 50 ..

Mumbai SCZ had a contrasting monsoon season so far (like 2013)..

The first 50 days had 1885 mms of rains..

The next 50 had just 309 ..

Vihar(8 kms straight line distance from Mumbai SCZ) had 2788 mms during first 50 days , 570 mms during next 50 days ..(Vihar 3360 mms)

The temps have been normal to slightly below normal though throughout the season at Mumbai..Lowest min 21.2 c , Lowest max 26.2 c

Past few days have been breezy with partly cloudy skies and temps of 31 c / 24 c at SCZ(afternoon hum around 65% ) .

Brilliant September skies over North Mumbai today

The deccan plateau is cooler with Pune at 26.5 c /18.6 c during past 24 hrs .

Aurangabad was 30 c / 18.6 c with pretty low afternoon humidity around 40 % .

The western ghats(Sahyadri) are generally cloudy with pretty cool temps of 21 c / 18 c.

Around beautiful Sahyadri today morning (pic courtesy : Abhishek Apte)

Cold , foggy Mahabaleshwar @18 c today afternoon (pic courtesy : Abhishek Apte)

B) SEPTEMBER RAIN

In contrast to the last 2 Septembers recording good rains , this September has been dry at Mumbai with the odd showers till now .

It needs to be seen how much the thunderstorms towards month end will add to the monthly total ,currently at mere 28 mms..

Lowest rainfall Sep at Mumbai SCZ during past 60 years ..

1987 .. 35 mms , 1986 .. 39 mms , 1991 .. 59 mms , 2000..79 mms , 1968 ..88 mms

Highest rainfall Sep at Mumbai SCZ during past 60 years ..

1993 .. 905 mms , 1981 .. 821 mms , 2005 .. 744 mms , 2016..712 mms , 2017 ..603 mms

(All time record 1954.. 920 mms )

C) THE LATEST UPDATED MONSOON AVERAGES

Mumbai SCZ during the last 19 years (21st century)..

more than 3000 mms of annual rains : 5 times
less than 2000 mms of annual rains : 2 times

Mumbai SCZ(western suburbs) latest monsoon averages of the 21st century

..(Eastern suburbs average 10-30 % higher rains)

D) THE TOPPERS

Because of it's scintillating performance at the top of the order , Mumbai SCZ still tops the highest rain capital list.

The top improvers during the second half of the season have been Dehradun with 1400 mms and Gangtok 1150 mms during past 50 days ..

Highest rain state capitals

1) Mumbai 2194 .. 2) Panji 2096 .. 3) Gangtok 2014.. 4) Dehradun 1895 .. 5) Port Blair 1567

India .. Top 10 most populated cities (rain in mms)

Thursday, September 06, 2018

Posted Thursday Night...6th September:

1. The winds, anti cyclone , at 850 levels, changing directions and indications at 200 level. OLR & UTH scene and poor cross equtorial winds, indicate the start of the withdrawal of the current South West Monsoon season from Western half of Pakistan.

We await the fizzling out ofthe BB-10 (depression as on Thursday) , and then announce the withdrawal from Pakistan and Western Rajasthan and Kutch, around 10th/12th September. Gujarat region can estimate withdrawal after 20th.

2. BB-10 being extremely active on Odisha on Wednesday and Thursday. Some really heavy rains in Odisha in last 24 hrs:Bhubaneswar city-104mm
Earsama-435mm
Paradip-412mm,Kujanga-375mm, Kendrapada-340mm
Marsaighai-336mm, Mohakaalapada-320mm
Pattamundei-311mm, Derabis-298mm
Bari-271mm, Tirtol-260mm
Salipur-245mm, Bingarpur-242mm
Gardapur-240mm, Aul-226mm
Ragunathpur-211mm, Alipingal-209mm
Jagatsingpur-195mm, Jajpur-190mm.
System will weaken and track W/NW and fizzle out over West M.P. by 9th.But good rainfall expected in M.P. next 2 days.
Some places in East Vidharbh will get sharp showers.

Forecast for 7th Friday/ 7th Saturday and 9th Sunday

Jabalpur: Generally cloudy skies with moderate showers. Decreasing rains from 9th .
New Delhi: Cloudy skies, with some showers in some parts of the Capital.Rains decreasing from 10th . We see Monsoon withdrawal from extreme West Rajasthan around 10th. Depending on the axis, the anticyclone and OLR positions , we may estimate the withdrawal from Delhi around 20th September.

Mumbai: Friday/Saturday and Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with warm sunshine. Few showers in some parts of the city

Kolkata: Cloudy with showers on Friday. Few showers in parts of city on Saturday/Sunday.

Saturday, September 01, 2018

MONSOON REPORT (1-6-2018 to 31-8-2018)

TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 31-8-2018)					668.7 mm
SEASON +/-					-6.40%

TO ACHIEVE BY 30th SEPTEMBER					required in mm
*MINIMUM*	*700*	mm			*1.04*
AVERAGE	890	mm			7.38
MAXIMUM	1100	mm			14.38

*CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY*					*7.27 mm*

ALL INDIA SUBDIVISIONAL RAINFALL FIGURES
SUBDIVISION			ACTUAL	NORMAL	DEP+/-
			mm	mm	%
KERALA			2428.9	1795.4	35%
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH			486.6	422.0	15%
S. I. KARNATAKA			576.4	519.0	11%
TELANGANA			660.5	597.8	10%
ODISHA			1004.1	913.2	10%
JAMMU & KASHMIR			477.8	442.5	8%
KONKAN & GOA			2762.6	2569.3	8%
COASTAL KARNATAKA			2969.9	2782.9	7%
MADHYA MAHARASHTRA			613.4	576.9	6%
CHHATTISGARH			957.8	937.8	2%
VIDARBHA			791.4	785.6	1%
WEST UTTAR PRADESH			617.4	620.9	-1%
MARATHWADA			503.1	518.7	-3%
UTTARAKHAND			991.2	1022.2	-3%
HIMACHAL PRADESH			656.0	685.3	-4%
WEST MADHYA PRADESH			674.3	705.7	-4%
EAST RAJASTHAN			492.6	516.1	-5%
A & N ISLAND			1173.3	1250.1	-6%
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY			185.0	201.4	-8%
EAST UTTAR PRADESH			641.6	700.3	-8%
EAST MADHYA PRADESH			768.2	851.2	-10%
PUNJAB			344.4	400.8	-14%
GUJARAT REGION			649.2	754.7	-14%
GANGETIC WEST BENGAL			756.0	888.4	-15%
N M M T			1004.7	1207.2	-17%
WEST RAJASTHAN			182.2	221.9	-18%
BIHAR			658.0	803.6	-18%
SHWB & SIKKIM			1287.7	1596.2	-19%
N. I. KARNATAKA			286.6	360.0	-20%
HAR. CHD & DELHI			293.7	385.3	-24%
JHARKHAND			642.8	847.9	-24%
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH			301.7	401.5	-25%
ASSAM & MEGHALAYA			1024.1	1466.5	-30%
ARUNACHAL PRADESH			909.7	1396.4	-35%
RAYALASEEMA			150.1	265.2	-43%
LAKSHADWEEP			478.8	835.4	-43%

TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2018 to 31-8-2018)					*49 (53%)*
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2018 to 31-8-2018)					*43 (47%)*


				SOURCE	IMD