Monday, February 01, 2016

Posted Thursday Night

Weekend forecast for Friday 5th/Saturday 6th and Sunday 7th:

Mumbai Santacruz which was at 14c and Colaba at 19c on Thursday, will see the same temperature range on Friday, with the day at around 29/30c. Slight rise on Saturday and Sunday.
Pune , on the weekend, will be in the range of 33c in the day and 11/12c at night.
Maharashtra night temperatures rising from current trend this weekend...

A Western Disturbance (F-1) will cover the extreme North of Pakistan with rains and snow on Saturday 6th. On 6th, cloudy weather will also cover the Indian hill states of Kashmir and HP. Light precipitation will start from Saturday, increasing on Sunday. 
Srinagar will be cloudy on the weekend with light precipitation on Sunday, day's high dropping to 10c on Suday after about 14/15c on Saturday. 
Sunday 7th, precipitation will also be covering Uttarkhand and West UP.

Delhi NCR and Punjab and Haryana will be partly cloudy on Saturday and Sunday. Night temperatures rising this weekend.
F-2 will approach the North India and Pakistan region from 9th February.

This time a different contest...Surely testing your skills...Your Meteorology Skill !!

You have to give the name of the City or Town , in India, which you think will be the first in the country to touch the 40c mark this year. Meaning it should be over 40.0c....
And the answer will be taken ONLY from IMD Stations and/or the Daily IMD Reports. (No other Source eg: AWS, ARG PWD etc will be considered)( Bhira (Mah) readings WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED).  

Answer will be brief: Name of City (State): only ONE CITY (With the State) permitted. 
Please give your name and your home town with your answer. 
Answer to the following E mail : vagariesoftheweather@gmail.com

Contest closes on 12th February Mid Night. If, by chance, the 40c is reached before 12th February, the Contest stands cancelled.
If in doubt, ask only in Blog comments..( So as not to repeat the similar query by another).
Participation by all Vagarians is Compulsory.

Saturday, January 30, 2016

We Saw record colds and "New Regions" Snow in our previous Article ...Now more news...First Time Snow ever in Kuwait ...and more freezing news on International Page.


Read more Articles on the Author's Page


WEST COAST OF INDIA .. 30 JAN 2016 

Refer Map 1 below- 
Afternoon (max) temperatures along the west coast show an increasing gradient from northern to southern part of the coast ..
Dwarka (Gujarat) .. 26 c ,  Mangalore ..37.8 c   

Refer Map 2 (Mumbai region micro-climate) below- 
Afternoon(max) temperatures in the Mumbai region show an increasing trend from the coast towards the interior.. from 27.7 c  to 37 c
Night (min) temperatures in the Mumbai region show a decreasing trend from the coast towards the interior.. from 20 c  to 15 c

Mumbai Coast (Colaba) records lowest afternoon(max) temp in the state (Maharashtra) @ 27.7 c ..
Lower than Mahabaleshwar in the ghats (1350 mtrs above mean sea level) @ 31.2 c 

Map 1 -



Map 2 (Mumbai region micro-climate) -

We Saw record colds and "New Regions" Snow in our previous Article ...Now more news...First Time Snow ever in Kuwait ...and more freezing news on International Page.

Read more Articles on the Author's Page




Friday, January 29, 2016

On Friday, 29th, Days were warmer in Maharashtra as expected. Mumbai Scruz & Pune were 33c, while Ratnagiri was hottest in the State at 36.6c.
Temperatures should drop again in State from 1st February. ( Mumbai included).

Western Disturbance J-4 active over North India on 29th..date expected...with 16 mms of rain in Amritsar on Friday (till 8.30 pm IST) and day's high at 14.9c. Several places in Punjab, Kashmir and HP had precipitation.
Yesterday, J-4 was active in Pakistan, with Quetta recording 47 mms and many places in Balochistan and Punjab and Northern regions recording between 2 - 20 mms.

Thursday, January 28, 2016

We have probably reached the peak of the 2015–2016 El Niño.

Currently, strong El Niño persists
According to researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, water temperatures in the Niño3.4 region of the tropical Pacific—an area that is usually the focal point of such events—broke a record in December 2015. Sea surface temperatures averaged 2.38° Celsius above the norm, surpassing December 1997, which was 2.24°C above normal.For October through December 2015, the three-month temperature average for the Niño3.4 region was equal to the record high from the same months in 1997.


Climate models suggest El Niño will decay over the coming months, with a likely return to neutral conditions in the second quarter of 2016.Warmer-than-average waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean should start to cool off and shift westward.
Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral year, and 40% have been followed by La Niña. Models also suggest neutral and La Niña states are about equally likely for the second half of 2016, with a repeat El Niño the least likely outcome. 
But will the ocean respond in 2016 the way it did in 1998 and 1983? There are no guarantees.

However, recent tropical cyclone activity in the central tropical Pacific has produced strong westerly winds along the equator which may temporarily slow the decline of El Niño. Such short-term re-intensification of El Niño has happened before. For example, 1997–98 saw a re-strengthening of El Niño conditions in early 1998, before the event eventually decayed. 

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped over the past two weeks. The 30-day SOI value to 17 January was −16.3. 
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña, while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values of between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

Vagaries' very early estimates see a ENSO neutral condition in the April/May/June  period. On this schedule, We may see a sluggish start to our South West Monsoon in June. As La Nina could develop, Monsoon can recover after mid July and possible extend into October 2016. These are very early presumed estimates, depending on the developments.

The maps below show conditions in the middle of each of the past 13 months as El Niño has developed. 



Image of Sea Surface Heights: 

The measurements come from the altimeter on the Jason-2 satellite and show averaged sea surface height anomalies. Shades of red indicate where the ocean stood higher than the normal sea level; warmer water expands to fill more volume. Shades of blue show where sea level and temperatures were lower than average (water contraction). Normal sea-level conditions appear in white.

 “It has been another ‘event of the century’ much like the one we just had in 97–98. The question is: how quickly will we flip into La Niña?”

Excerpts from NASA Earth Observatory and Australian Bur of Met.