
US Latest
ONE FOR THE AGES
Northeastern US brought to standstill as tree limbs crash onto powerlines cutting power to millions.
Latest Count of Those Currently In the Dark: 2,765,883
Vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather since 55 years For Any Information taken from here, due credit must be given to Vagaries.
US Latest
ONE FOR THE AGES
Northeastern US brought to standstill as tree limbs crash onto powerlines cutting power to millions.
Latest Count of Those Currently In the Dark: 2,765,883
AS-2 has moved North in the last 6 hrs, and is positioned at 13.0N and 63.7E at 11.30 am IST. Still maintaining pressure at 1004 mb, the maximum winds are at 25 knts.
Its spiral is growing, and is now spread over a diameter of almost 1200 kms across the Arabian Sea, while the outer spiral is now covering a distance of almost 1800 kms !
Expected to move NW and then North. Due to the SST at 29c, and other factors, it now may deepen marginally, maybe up to 1000 mb at the most.
Coastal karnataka, Goa and Konkan should get rain on Saturday and Sunday as mentioned yesterday.
The UAC in the Gulf of Mannar has deepened. Expect very heavy rains in the regions mentioned last night. Keep a watch on this too !
Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy, with light rains possible. Light showers could be expected in some parts. Temperature range: 33c-25c.
Mumbai recorded a hight of 34.6c at Colaba and 36.3c on Thursday. Being partly cloudy, as predicted, the humidity was higher on Thursday at 60% (compared to 40% yesterday).
Pune was in the range of 31.7 - and 16.8c. The night temperatures for the next 2 nights will also be in the predicted range.
The forecast put for Mumbai and Pune on Wednesday remains valid (See Mumbai Page).
Mumbai/Pune Forecast for next 3 days on Mumbai Page.
Greetings From Vagaries to All the Readers:
MAY THIS Diwali BRING LIGHT AND HAPPINESS IN YOUR LIFE !
WISHING YOU AND YOUR FAMILY A VERY HAPPY DiwalI and Prosperous New Year.
Regards,
Rajesh.
Hottest in
Hottest in
Deesa, Idar and Surendranagar (
Mumbai Colaba: 36.6c
Mumbai S'Cruz: 36.2c.
Ratnagiri:36.4c
N.Delhi (SFD): 33c
Hottest in
Pune and
A weak W.D.is expected to cross the Northern states of
Shower or two expected in Central Nepal and
Tuesday, 18th October:Max Temperatures today:
Hottest in
October average normal rainfall is 180 mms. Bangalore Rain fall from 1st October to 18th October 2011: 102 mms (16 mms)
The heaviest rainfall recorded in a 24-hour period is 179 millimetres recorded on 1 October 1997.
Vagaries Estimate October weather forecaste Reproduced v/s actual (in green)
Black Print is original Forecast, and Green is actual performance.
Vagaries Estimate for October for the Sub-Continent:
-As we see the SWM still prevailing in the Indian peninsula and Eastern regions, we shall first discuss its possible retreat.
The current signs and parameters suggest a withdrawal of the SWM from
SWM withdrew from A.P.and Orissa, still prevailing in S.Maharashtra.
-Further withdrawal from the Southern states of Karnataka, T.N. and Kerala will be between 7th and 12th October.
Not yet thru.
-Formations of UACs or a low pressure in the
UAC formed in
-ENSOconditions remain within neutral conditions, but both atmospheric and oceanic indicators show a trend toward La Niña. More importantly, for a La Niña event to occur, these indicators must remain above the threshold and persist for at least a few months.
Hence, NEM could be moderate to avarage after setting thru October.
No major W.D. is seen crossing the Northern regions in the first half of October. However, as the westerly upper winds gain strength and stabilise, a W.D. is possible in the second half of the month. The middle hills (Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Kalpa, Keylong) could get the first snowfall during the 2nd half of this month, and here will see the temperature touch 0c by the 15th of October. Leh, in Ladhak will freeze a week before.
A weak W.D. moved across Northern sub-Continent in the 1st week, and brought snow to the higher reaches. Middle hills snow possible as forecasted.
-Northern plains of
Days will be around 33-35c in interior
Northern Plains are currently in the 33-37c day range, with 38c as the highest.
-There could be a possibility of a depression forming, and strengthening, in the East Arabian Sea off the west coast of
Waiting. Date not arrived !
-For
Local weather phenomena always holds the key over the Mountainous areas, which in turn effects the nearby plains. Thunder cells could form in the mountains, and drift over the nearest plains areas. Specially in the next few days, as the region is predominantly saturated with moisture.
In general, we can expect the nights in
The average rain for October is around 57 mms, and most of it could be from local phenomena, meaning no W.D.systems etc.
Do not expect any W.D. to have any great effect in October.
SWM withdraws, and
-Sindh regions of
Northern regions will experience the normal cooling, with a couple of W.D.s in the Northern most regions preicipitating rains, after 20th of this month.
Days in Sindh are around 35-38c range, with the highest showing 39c. Nights are still warmer than expected in Sindh in the 22-24c range.
Monday was hot as exepected in the non-monsoon regions of Mahrashtra, with Nandurbar rising to 37.5c. The temple town of
Mumbai Forecast:
Tuesday: Hot day, and uncomfortable, as the humidity range will be between a max of 80% in the morning to 40% in the afternoon. Tuesday will see the day at 35c, but Wednesday and Thursday the thermometer might try to scale 36c.
Thane reached 35c.on Monday. Expecting Thane and Panvel to manage 37c by Thursday..
What is Airglow?....if interested, read it on Space News Page….see also Interaction Page
Mumbai is done with this year's SWM.....Hot on Saturday, with Colaba at 32.8c and Santacruz at 34.3c. The nights are warm at 26c at both ends. Suburbs touched a low humidity 0f 46% in the afternoon on Saturday.
Mumbai: As mentioned yesterday, the Arabian Sea UAC has fizzled out today. I would personally feel the removal of SWM from Mumbai and North Konkan could be done with from Saturday, 8th October.
However, with residual moisture lingering in the ghats, there is a 30% chance of a "hit or miss" thunder rain in some areas of the city for Saturday.
As we see the SWM still prevailing in the Indian peninsula and Eastern regions, we shall first discuss its possible retreat.
The current signs and parameters suggest a withdrawal of the SWM from
Further withdrawal from the Southern states of Karnataka, T.N. and Kerala will be between 7th and 12th October.
Formations of UACs or a low pressure in the
ENSO conditions remain within neutral conditions, but both atmospheric and oceanic indicators show a trend toward La Niña. More importantly, for a La Niña event to occur, these indicators must remain above the threshold and persist for at least a few months.
Hence, NEM could be moderate to average after setting thru October.
No major W.D. is seen crossing the Northern regions in the first half of October. However, as the westerly upper winds gain strength and stabilise, a W.D. is possible in the second half of the month. The middle hills (Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Kalpa, Keylong) could get the first snowfall during the 2nd half of this month, and here will see the temperature touch 0c by the 15th of October. Leh, in Ladhak will freeze a week before.
Northern plains of
Days will be around 33-35c in interior
There could be a possibility of a depression forming, and strengthening, in the East Arabian Sea off the west coast of
For
Local weather phenomena always holds the key over the Mountainous areas, which in turn effects the nearby plains. Thunder cells could form in the mountains, and drift over the nearest plains areas. Specially in the next few days, as the region is predominantly saturated with moisture.
In general, we can expect the nights in
The average rain for for
Sindh regions of
Northern regions will experience the normal cooling, with a couple of W.D.s in the Northern most regions preicipitating rains, after 20th of this month.
Reader's views and suggestions most welcome.
These estimates are my personal views, and should not be depended upon for commercial uses.
x-------------------------------x---------------------------------x----------------------x----See Mumbai Page also…
The avg max temp of Pune Shivajinagar in first half of feb (1-14feb) this year is highest at least since 2014...in last 10 years Avg. Max t...