Wednesday, October 30, 2013

As Arpit points out in the Comments, there has been fairly good rain and snow in the North as on Thursday morning.. This is as per the WD forecast put up on Monday for the next 2 days...the first snowfall has occurred in the higher reaches of Kashmir and HP.

Giant Mirrors Bring Winter Sun to Norwegian Village
The centre of the Norwagian town of Rjukan is basking in winter sunshine for the first time ever, thanks to three giant mirrors erected on a mountain top. The town lies in a deep valley and during the six winter months, the surrounding mountain casts a shadow over it, even at noon....more and pics here.

Posted Wednesday Evening: 

A weak Low ( i term it as a "loop Low") forms in the Bay at approximately 14N and 86E. As mentioned, it is expected that it remain weak and centre will cross the AP coast. Clouding from the Low is expected in the Western quadrant....more on this later.


Mumbai Morning Pressure (Vagaries) rises to 1015 today (Wednesday).. This pressure was last recorded on 2nd March 2013..  (see Vagaries Reading Page if interested)

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Posted on Tuesday Night @ 12 Midnight: 
A Low pressure may form off the AP coast by Wednesday evening/night. Short lived, it will move west into AP coast and bring rains there on 31st October and 1st November.


A WD (could be numbered if required) will cross into North Pakistan hills and plains on 4th November. WD -1 will move into India, i.e. Kashmir, HP, Utterakhand and North Punjab on 5th and 6th November.

An Exhaustive and Informative Report on " North Indian Ocean Cyclone Season" prepared by Vagarian Santosh Subramanian deserves a place in Vagaries. 
Placed in the Links on the right side of this Page >>>>>>    >>>>>>

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On Monday 28th October, Hottest in Asia: Nawabshah (Pakistan) 38c.Hottest in India: Bhuj at 36.4c. Surat was 35.6c.
Lowest temperature in Northern plains: Nazibabad ( UP) 12.5c. In the Southern Mountains, Ooty was 8.2c.

Developed on Sunday,a weak east-west upper air trough, hardly sustainable and off the South Konkan coast, is perpetuating rains in South Konakan and pushing some moisture up into Central Konkan and interior North Konkan. 

Tuesday 29th, would expect the precipitation to gradually recede Southwards. 
An additional day of evening clouds and maybe some light rains in Pune on Tuesday. Clouds accumulating on Tuesday in Mahableshwar with some showers.
Mumbai region will be dry and hot.

We have heard of damage to crops and harvested crops in Ratnagiri region from the recent rains. 
Would expect the last of the rains on Tuesday. some pockets in Kolhapur and Belgaum regions maystill get the odd shower on Tuesday.

Wednesday 30th, rains will be restricted to S.I.Karnataka. Mysore, Kodagu and Chamrajnagar region can expect good showers. Intrior TN can expect precipitation. A LWD seems to concentrate around Thanjavur - Madurai region.

Thursday 31st: Belgaum or nearby vicinty can expect a thunder shower by afternoon. Hubli Dhawar belt too can get the odd shower. Thundershower for Bangalore in the night.
More rainfall in Kerala and Nilgiri regions of TN.

An Easterly wave may show up around the 2nd November, to strengthen the NEM for Chennai...to be closely followed.

A WD will move thru Upper regions of Pakistan and Kashmir next 2 days. Upper and middle reaches in Kashmir  (Gulmarg/Pahalgam) and HP (Kalpa/Keylong) will get their first snowfall of the season.

Mumbai, New Delhi and Kolkata will be clear and sunny. 
New Delhi next 3 nights will be pleasant at around 16c.
Kolkata wll see a slight nip at 18/19c. But Mumbai will not drop below 22/23c. Though Mumbai will be warm (33/34c), with N/NE winds will get less humid.
With a clear sky, we see Pune dipping to 16c by Wednesday morning.


Sindh (Pakistan) nights will remain above normal till Wednesday night. 
Karachi will be lightly cloudy on Tuesday. Days will be 33c and nights 23c. Night temperatures will dip from Thursday morning.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted Sunday Night:
Severe Storm Approaches London:..see International Page
With Live Updates available

Yesterday's ...Heavy Saturday Rains.. Kolkata Rains..a Video from Santosh

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Posted on Saturday Night: Now,  weakened to a Low pressure, the system moved North, and is located at 20N and 81E..at the conjunction of the Mah/Chattisgarh/AP borders.
The trough still runs from Assam to TN thru the coastal States. The system is detached from it.

Posted Saturday Morning: Heavy rains in Kolkata from Friday evening.Heavy Rain amounts sent by Santosh from Kolkata:

And as Abhijit  puts it
"NEM is obeying as per it's name. Producing more rain in NE and E India than actual SE India"
Some amounts from NE States from Arpit: 
Sechu- 314 mm
Shyamakhunta-Agro- 193 mm
Nalgonda- 186 mm
Bhongir- 135 mm
Jangaon- 122 mm
Kadamdeuli- 118 mm
Tamluk- 111 mm
Outer townships (Eastern) of Mumbai got light rains on Friday evening...Mahableshwar and Lonaval also received showers...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WML lies at 77E and 15N, neat the N.I. Karnataka/AP border..and moving W/NW..the eastern trough is dragged westwards and tends to weaken now.

Mumbai:
Friday 25th: Partly cloudy, becoming cloudy by evening. Light rain expected at night. Rain amount will be up to 5 mms by Saturday morning. Day will be warm at 33c.
Winds from NE, but becoming East by night.
Outer townships getting light to moderate rains from evening, Eastern townships specially.

Saturday 26th: S winds in the day. Cloudy and  surprise showers possible. Some sharp evening showers in parts of city. Light rains on Saturday night.( 10-12 mms)
Outer townships, specially the Eastern townships, will get some heavy showers.(10-15 mms).


 Sunday 27th: Cloudy to overcast. Cooler winds blowing. Morning Showers in parts of city. 


Pune:
Friday: Cloudy with light to moderate rain showers by evening. Cooler night.


Saturday 26th/Sunday 27th will be cloudy with showers in several parts of the city.

Surat and Bharuch get light to medium showers on Saturday evening and Sunday, most likely after the noon time.

Medium to heavy rainfall expected in Aurangabad on Saturday/Sunday.

Heavy showers expected in Kolkata on Friday 25th evening and night...maybe into Saturday morning...around 25-30 mms.
Rains decreasing from Sunday.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

3 Day Mumbai Forecast tonite by 11 pm IST....

Posted Wednesday day Night @ 1030 pm IST:
WML now partially inland around 14N. Tracking NW, expected to re emerge in Arabian Sea from the Central Konkan region, South of Mumbai.
In effect, the Thursday and Friday forecast mentioned for all regions in blog holds good.

In addition, as the system now may come to Central Konkan, some rains also expected on Friday thru Sunday in Surat and Bharuch.

6 Apollo Lunar Landings Multiscreen..very interesting...see video on Space News Page

For those Interested see Space News Page ...Wet Asteroid’s Remains Found In Old Star That Could Have Hosted Habitable Planets

Posted Tuesday Night @ 1030 pm IST:

1. -The Well marked Low, at 1004 mb, has moved North, and as on Tuesday evening , is located W/NW of Chennai at 13N and 82E. Convective clouding is seen in the North and NW of the system, and minimum shear.
Will cross land by Wednesday at around 15N. Chennai will witness absolute west winds, when the system crosses land, and will be an indicator.
System will move Westwards along 15N line, and cross into the Arabian Sea at Goa.....

Chennai will get sporadic showers till Friday, when the system crosses into the Arabian sea..around 20-30 mms /day.....

2. -This system is expected to track Westwards along the 15N line from Wednesday thru Thursday. It will cross into the Arabian Sea as a  Low thru Goa. 
The WML will then move North along the coast, and as per the indications today, will fizzle out South of Saurashtra by 28th of October...but it  will keep the west coast trough "alive " till 30th October.

3. -A new Low ( BB-16)  forms in the Bay about the 12N line around 2nd November. Embedded in an Easterly trough, it will strengthen into a WML/Depression and move West. Should strike the TN coast by the 4th of November, bringing heavy rains....more follow up later.

What to Expect:-
Wednesday 23rd:  Heavy rains in Davengere and Chitradurg ( Kar) regions, heavy rains in Anantapur (AP) region, and moderate rains in Gadag, Belgaum and Raichur region on Wednesday. In Maharashtra, South Madhya Mah regions get some showers. (Pandharpur and Solapur). Some parts of Marathwada also see showers. 
Rains again for Belgaum.

Thursday 24th, as the system moves North, heavy rains expected in N.I. Karnataka. Rainfall moves into Goa and South Konkan. Madhya Mah regions of Kolhapur, Sangli and 

Pune get showers. Mahableshwar will get heavy showers with thick fog.
Vengurla can expect heavy showers. Interior North Konkan gets thunder showers.

Friday 25th: Low/WLM comes off the Mah coast. All region of Maharashtra gets moderate to heavy showers. Mumbai and North Konkan can get thunder showers. Aurangabad region can expect thunder showers. Heavy rains and thunder showers in Goa. 

Saturday 26th: Rains throughout Maharashtra and Southern Saurashtra Peninsula. 

Mumbai:
Wednesday 23rd: Partly cloudy towards afternoon and evening. Warm stuffy at night with night temperatures around 26c.

Thursday 24th: Partly cloudy, and thundery developments seen in the Eastern skies. Thundery developments with showers in some Eastern outer townships.

Friday 25th: cloudy and windy. Thunder showers expected in evening. Around 5 -10 mms expected.
Outer townships get thunder showers. Northern townships can get some heavy showers. 

Saturday 26th: Overcast and cloudy skies with showers. Cooler day. Evening thunder shower possible, with some regions getting 25 mms of rain.

Pune can get showers on Thursday 24th evening, with thunder. Friday 25th will also be cool and cloudy, with heavy showers in many parts.


Correction "Chennai will get West Winds" typo error ...Thanks for pointing out Viravanalluran



Saturday, October 19, 2013

First 70 SWM Toppers for the entire Season...2013...Winner  Patgaon !...See Pradeep's Page for complete List...


After 120 days of gruelling battle, the winner is Patgaon from
Maharashtra. it manages to beat Hulikal from Karnataka by just 100 mm.
The notable records in this season are Patgaon has got 5881 mm
rainfall in July alone. A data which has to be noted in your record
books. Similarly, Amgaon in Karnataka has got 5097 mm in July. 


But it was a bad year for both Cherrapunji and Mawsynaram. They finished very
lowly in the toppers list this SWM.



Vagaries withdrew the SWM up to Maharashtra on the18th (Map put up on Thursday), and IMD has also withdrawn on similar lines on the 19th of October.

Now, actually, the Monsoon axis has slid down South fast. 
A low has formed off TN coast, at 11N and 85E. Embedded in the East coast trough. This is expected to become well marked on Sunday and track towards North TN coast, and strike by Tuesday, 22nd or 23rd.
With an UAC off the South Karnataka coast, the axis now joins the 2 systems.

The Monsoon axis runs from Goa SE to Chennai and into the SE Bay.
Seeing the East winds along the axis, I would expect the SWM to withdraw from the country on Monday, and with the change of winds, simultanious commencement of NEM on 21st October. Vagaries first announcement ( in NEM Watch -2 dt. 3rd October) of NEM date of 20th October proves correct.
 .
Chennai, as forecasted yesterday, will get a thunderstorm on Sunday Night, heralding the NEM. Rains expected to continue next couple of days.

Heavy thunderstorm expected in Kolkata on Sunday night/Monday. Day will be humid at 32c.

A low is expected to form off the South Karnatak coast in the Arabian Sea around the 23rd/24th of October. Expected to track N/NW, and become well marked...and move along the Goa/Mah. coastline...Mumbai can expect some showers on Friday 25th and Saturday 26th October. Showers also expected in Goa. 
This Low may turn out to be counter productive for the NEM till the low exists. But, in any case, we are expecting the NEM to under perform till October end.....further up date for Mumbai and NEM on Monday, 21st.

And , this is the result of the SWM rushing South, heat wise...
On Saturday 19th October: 
Hottest in Asia: Makkah  41.2c
Hottest in Pakistan: Turbat  41c, Karachi 37.0c
Hottest in India : Bhuj 37.0c, Mumbai 36.5c.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Posted on Friday @ 10 pm IST:

With the SWM withdrawan, Mumbai turns hot and dry on Friday . The Maximum temperature at Scruz was 35.3c, and the minimum humidity was at 33%..Colaba too was drier, but at 60%. Pune was drier at 26%.

Parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan were hot today, and regions covered were as The "Pink Shaded" regions shown in the Vagaries' Map. Bikaner was 38.3c, Bhuj saw 36.6c, Surat  36.4c, Veraval  36.1c, Ahemdabad  36.0c, Rajkot 36.0c and Akola 36.1c.

Across the border, in Pakistan, Friday was hotter with Turabt being the hottest at 41c. Sibbi saw 39c, Nawabshah and Hyderbad were 38c and Karachi was 36c.

Meanwhile, the UAC shown in the Vagaries'map off TN coast will form on Saturday. 

Chennai will see an increase in precipitation from Sunday night.

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Posted on Friday @ 1 pm IST: The East West trough mentioned in the 16th Oct 10.30 pm post is active today...in Eastern Lanka


UAC forming in Off Shore trough off TN on Sunday ..

Posted on 17th Thursday @ 11 pm IST:

A anti-cyclone in the upper atmosphere sits firmly over Central India.



Getting a 1 day extension, as per Vagaries, the SWM will withdraw from North Konkan (including Mumbai), North Maharashtra, Vidharbha, Rest of MP and UP, and Chattisgarh on Friday 18th. 
IMD norms would require 3 days of no rain, but we see the parameters get suited for withdrawal, and hence would announce the withdrawal. 

An UAC has formed off the Sri Lanka and South TN coast, embedded in the East West trough along the line. 

Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Thunder showers will be active in interior Kerala and adjoining TN districts.

Chennai could see some Thunder showers in some parts on Friday and Saturday. Heavy thunder showers in Chennai on Sunday night...and maintain the NEM date at 22nd October

Mumbai Gets warm to 35c as SWM withdraws. Outer townships see a dip in night temperatures from Saturday. 
Pune will see cooler nights at 17c on the weekend.


Delhi will remain between 33c and 20c with hazy sunshine.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted on 16th October @ 10.30 pm
See International Page for Details on Typhoon Wipha, Heavy snow in Austria and Switzerland.

North:
Post SWM, we see the night temperatures falling in the Northern plains and Delhi. In the plains, Hissar and Lucknow were 18c, while the lowse in the plains was at Fatehgarh 17.7c.  New Delhi saw a low of 20c, while nearby Hindon fell to 19.6c.


But the hills are still awaiting a real cold WD. The hills are very much warmer than usual, and there has been no significant snowfall even in the upper reaches of Kashmir, HP or Uttarakhand. We have seen snowfall in the upper reaches as early as end August !

Keylong in HP recorded a minimum of 10c..that is 8c above normal. Kalpa was 6c , 4c above normal and Manali was 8c, 2c above.

Srinagar saw a low of 9c, which is 3c more than normal, and Gulmarg was 5c, above normal by 2c and Pahalgam was 4c, above normal by 2c.

The IMD is set withdraw the SWM from Delhi on 17th October. SWM is likely to withdraw from Delhi-NCR on 17th October as per IMD norms. This is going to be the longest monsoon season ever in the history of Delhi-NCR with a total of 123 days against a normal of 85 days. 17th October will be the most delayed withdrawal of monsoon ever. Previous last withdrawal date was 13 Oct 1956 and 1959. The Longest duration was in 1956, when it lasted for 111 days.

South:
The mighty "Phailin" has now fizzled out into a meek UAC over Bihar. A trough runs South from this UAC, and off the East coast till AP.

Another East-West trough has formed East off Sri Lanka. It is expected to strengthen in the next few days, but rainfall will be restricted to Sri Lanka. 

Interior TN will continue to get thunder showers. While,as explained in NEM Watch 3, the Chennai region will need to wait till 22nd for the NEM. 
We are depending on the off shore trough to strengthen and herald in the NEM. The expected UAC should form in the East Bay along the 15N line by Thursday.

Mumbai:
As expected, outer townships of Mumbai got some thunder showers on Wednesday evening. 

Now, the SWM can be expected to withdraw from the Mumbai region from Thursday. Nights expected to drop 2c from Thursday night in Mumbai suburbs and outer townships. 
Pune got some showers on Tuesday, and should reach 17c by weekend.

Animation of Super Cyclone "Phailin"...Sent and compiled by Santosh Subramanian...see here

Monday, October 14, 2013

Posted on Tuesday 15th: SWM Withdrawal Map (as per Vagaries)  showing regions where SWM has withdrawn: 


Posted Monday, 14th Night:
Super Cyclone "Phailin" now hangs around Bihar/Nepal border as a well marked low pressure area.Expected to fizzle out over Eastern Nepal.

All attention towards the Monsoon axis now....

The axis is expected to slid Southwards fast, and will pull the SWM southwards with it.
The SWM is expected to withdraw from West MP, Gujarat  and West Nepal by Tuesday 15th and in North Konkan ( including Mumbai), North Maharashtra, Rest of MP and Chattisgarh from Thursday 17th .
Shall put up withdrawal map on Tuesday Night and another on Wednesday showing the 2 days withdrawal..

Mumbai: 
SWM expected to withdraw from Mumbai region from Thursday 17th. 
The off shore trough currently in a east-west position off Mumbai, weakens considerably in next 2 days, and almost becomes non effective after Wednesday.
As the axis shifts Southwards, We will see Easterlies taking over Mumbai in the day...meaning high day temperatures.

Tuesday 15th : Partly cloudy, with a shower possible in some parts of city..Winds turn NE on Tuesday, hearlding a rise in day temperature to 33/34c.
Wednesday 16th/Thursday 17th:  SWM Withdraws from Thursday
A thunder shower may be possible in outer townships on Wednesday. As the SWM withdraws, we see east winds taking over, and a fall in humidity levels are seen. Warm and sunny, the day will rise to 36c by Thursday.Night temperatures drop by a couple of degrees in Suburbs and outer townships.

Pune may get a shower in some parts on Tuesday. SWM withdraws from Thursday 17th, and we see the nights getting distinctly cooler, with the low reaching 17c by the weekend.

NEM Watch -3
The current ENSO trend, which is neutral and the MJO, which shows  a weak phase till the 21st, and a "neutral phase from the 22nd till end of October. 

A rapid movement of the ITCZ towards the South, we see Easterlies picking up along the TN coast from Wednesday.
NE winds start their domination from Tuesday 15th.

However, it can be assumed, seeing the November MJO and Easterly wave flow, with a couple of strong systems from the Bay, the NEM will be near normal in Chennai (Normal = 822 mms .Expected 800 mms). 
Overall we see the NEM can be above normal by 10% in TN (All TN average = 440 mms. Expected 500 mms) and about 10% above Normal in Vellore (Normal 414 mms. Expected 450 mms).
Bangalore may get its normal share of 225 mms for the season.

From the current trends, it seems the NEM will set in around the 22nd of October.We can assume the NEM to remain weak to moderate till the end of October. We see the Monsoon strengthening only in November.

On Wednesday, a low form in the Southern parts of the Bay, around the 10N/12N line.
The Low moves westwards, and gets embedded in an Easterly trough East off Sri Lanka along the 10/11N line. But due to lack of favourable parameters, it is apparent the easterly wave lacks strength, and may precipitate only around Sri Lanka region (East coast)...

Chennai will get brisk East winds from Wednesday as a result.
As a line of wind discontinuity forms in the Southern Peninsula Interiors, we get thunder showers in interior TN and Karnataka from Tuesday thru the week. But, Thunder Showers in Chennai city on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Bangalore gets good thunder showers from Tuesday thru this week, due to the LWD.






Sunday, October 13, 2013

 Blog update tonite on Mumbai outlook and NEM...by 10.30 pm IST..

Super Cyclone Phailin was at it. Aiming at the East Coast and hurtling towards it at 210 kmph..enough to cause major destruction and loss of lives.
Excellent preparedness by authorities and timely warnings from IMD saved major damage and saved loss of lives...IMD did a very good job in accurate predictions and tracking estimates..Kudos !

Neeraj gives some details from Nepal in "comments"....Raining and overcast.
Kathmandu airport received 6 mms rainfall till 8 pm and the day's high was 19.8c. Current temperature at 5 pm 17.0c.
Sunday, as the system mived North into Jharkhand and Bihar, Jamshedpur got 99 mms and Ranchi 43 mms till 5.30 pm (9 hrs).

As on 8.30 am IST Sunday:  Banki ARG 381 mms, Balimundali 305 mms, Ranpur 296 mms, Chaibasa 199 mms.
Bhubaneshwar has recieved 169 mms, Keonjhargarh 150 mms,  Chandbali 123 mms,Puri 119 mms,  Balasore 110 mms, Paradip 76 mms and Sambhalpur 30 mms.
More from Arpit: G.UDAYAGIRI-AGRO- 243 mm 
KHURDAH- 169 mm ,SHYAMAKHUNTA-AGRO- 167 mm 
MAHISAPAT- 145 mm, KENDRAPARA- 97 mm

Rain in Odisha diagram from Rohit:


Posted on Sunday Morning at 8.30 am IST

As Cyclone "Phailin" moves Northwards, 
Heavy rainfall Warnings for Bihar, Sikkim, North W.Bengal and Central and Eastern Nepal.
Very heavy rains in these regions may precipitate around 100-200 mms in 24 hrs, causing local flooding of regional rivers in Jharkhand and Bihar.

Saturday, October 12, 2013

Posted @ 8.40 pm IST Saturday

"Phailin" located at 19N and 85E, has stalled in this position since 5 pm IST to 7.30 pm IST. In that period, it has weakened considerably, and at 8 pm IST, is located at 19N and 86E, just 20 kms South of Gopalpur. Core pressure is 938 mb and winds at 215 kmph. Still just within the official Cat 4 stage.

Presuming the resumed rate of 20 kmph tracking, it would have crossed the coast between 8.30 pm IST and 9 pm IST pm IST.
It is very very difficult to be precise and absolutely accurate for landfall without a proper defined centre. 

In effect, it could be said to have now crossed into land South of Gopalpur between 8.30 pm IST and 9.00pm IST Saturday !!. 

Link of Landfall sent by Akshay Deoras

vagaries would like to reiterate, that this blog had first mentioned the formation of this storm, and predicted its crossing North AP/Odisha coast as early as 3 rd October. This was mentioned in the NEM Watch -2, published on the Current weather page.
susequently, since 8th October, as soon as it attained strength, it can be seen on blog articles that vagaries was consistent in warning named districts in AP and Odisha like Srikakulam, Vizag and Ganjam, Bhubaneshwar and Gajapat.A map of possible path was put up on 9th.
Readers have inquired directly and thru several SMS messages and have taken this warning, and sent warnings and alerted their friends in Odisha and AP..Feels good to have been of help  :-)
Super Cyclone "Phailin" to make Landfall between 6 pm and 6.30 pm IST..now located about 25 kms Southof Ganjam (approximate on Sat imagery)..as on 5.30 pm..
Currently at 931 mb and 230 kmph winds 
Image below is of 5 pm IST...


Super Cyclone "Phailin" Update @ 1.30 pm IST

Rains overnight till Saturday Morning: Gopalpur 56 mms, Cuttack 33 mms, Bhubaneshwar 60 mms, 

Located at 18.2N and 85.5E, it has maintained same strength at 920 mb and 260 kmph. 
Now, approximately 110 kms from Land , it can cross the coast ( Just South of Gopalpur) at around 7 pm IST, seeing the current speed of tracking. Before hitting land, clouds will get concised, and system will weaken rapidly on Land. 
The movement after landfall will be almost Northwards. 



This is due to the active WD now in the North. Last 24 hrs ended Saturday morning, there was good rainfall in Punjab  with Amritsar getting 67 mms, And in HP Dharamsala got 56 mms, Manali 14 mms, Delhi SJung got 39 mms, Palam 22 mms and in West UP, heavy rainfall in Hindon of 54 mms, and Meerut getting 13 mms..Jammu got 9 mms. Many places in the region recorded upto 10 mms of rain.

Next Update at 5.30 pm IST
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Super Cyclone "Phailin" to strike North AP/Odisha Coast on Saturday:  (Update @ 10.30 am IST):  



"Phailin" at 918 mb and winds at 260 kph, is Categorised at 5. 
The eye is stable no doubt, but very strong convection in the eye walls are again producing violent thunder storms around the eye, and has formed a broken ring around it. 
If, (doubtful), a second eye replacement takes place, the system will weaken 10 notches by landfall.
If not, it will remain at current strength, and strike North AP/Odisha coast at 920 mb and 260 kmph wind force.That is itself devastating !


Wind shear in the SW and South quadrant has increased to 40 kts, so translating to more vigorous thunder storms in that quadrant.(See IR BD Image).

Next Update @ 1.30 pm IST

Friday, October 11, 2013

Latest Update on Cyclone at 10.30 am IST

Posted on Friday @ 11.40 pm IST:

Super Cyclone "Phailin" Core Pressure drops further to  915 mb with core winds at 270 kmph !!
Located at 16.8N and 87E.....

Expected intensification which spurted after recycling of eye, would "stabilise" now onwards. This is also justified by the fact that the difference between cloud tops in the eye  (-21c) and outer clouds (-80c) has narrowed from the previous 80c difference. 

The rainfall rate map shows the coastal regions have started receiving rains at at least over 25 mms/hour. 




Expected to reach the Odisha coast by Saturday afternoon/evening. On reaching land, the cyclone will be around current strength. 
The likely strike area is likely to be near Gopalpur . Gopalpur, Bhubaneshwar and Cuttack are in the heavy rainfall and winds zone. Besides this, Srikakulam district should be alerted for heavy rans and winds.
Rainfall will be extremely heavy in the strike regions, where the precipitation may be around 250-300 mms in the first 24 hrs.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted on Friday @ 8.30 pm IST:

Super Cyclone "Phailin":...Its Cat 5 !!

As mentioned, "Phailin" original eye was absorbed by the outer ring, and subsequently we saw a decrease in intensity from 930 mb earlier to 935mb. Winds also reduced marginally during this time.
However, the replacement cycle is now almost completed, and a new eye is consolidating itself.
This would encourage the re-intensification of Phailin in the next 12 hrs. Very rapid intensification has resumed, and current core pressure is estimated at 920 mb...and winds at 260 kmph...satellite image visuals and calculations depict a slightly stronger system.
Location: 16.7N and 87.3E...



Tracking NW, and expected to centre on AP/Odisha coast with a greater intensity. Centre will cross land around Saturday evening, BUT, storms and winds will commence by morning !

Tracking NW, "Phailin" will move towards the AP/Odisha border. Srikakulam, Vizianagram and Vizag District (AP) should be seriously alerted. And Gajapati and Ganjam Districts of Orissa should be alerted...and all regions along North AP and Odisha coast. Damage will be maximum.
Please consult and adhere to Local authorities warnings !
Note, the cyclone will weaken very rapidly on crossing land, and move in a N/NW

I personally feel that this storm has been underestimated by IMD...

Quoting from ToI: 
"The weather office may be underestimating the severity of a cyclone which is hurtling towards the east coast, a meteorologist warned on Friday."
Cyclone Phailin is forecast to hit the coast between Kalingapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and Paradip in Odisha late on Saturday with a maximum wind speed of 220kmph (135mph), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its latest bulletin.

And this: "Phailin is already worse than what the IMD is forecasting. A recent satellite estimate put Phailin's current intensity on par with 2005's Hurricane Katrina in the United States," said Eric Holthaus, meteorologist for Quartz, a US-based online magazine which covers global economy-related issues.

"Everything I know as a meteorologist tells me this is the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane — among the strongest on earth in 2013. That would mean Phailin could be the strongest cyclone ever measured in the Indian Ocean."...??

Friday's Rains in Delhi. West UP and HP..were WD Rains...Why?..See Current Weather Page 

Severe Cyclone "Phailin" Update as on 10.30 am IST:

"Phailin"is something to be carefull of !. The storm is rapidly intensifying, and now at Cat 4, is having core pressure of 930 mb and estimated sustained core winds of 250 kmph !!
Location: 16N and 88.5E.

The current eye is warm, and almost 80c warmer than the outer bands. Current central clouds are at -6c, compared to -86c in the outer bands. The outer wall, has shrunk, and is seen almost consuming the original eye. So, temporarily, the intensification may halt for the next 6hrs..and may even weaken a bit. But, if a perfect new eye forms, the intensification can resume again.

Tracking at 15 kms/hour, in a NW direction, and seeing it is 530 kms from Paradip (SSE), Kalingapatnam (ESE) and Gopalpur (SE), we can calculate its landfall in another 36 hrs from 005hrs IST (Friday). This calculated to Saturday evening. 
That means, the outer storms will take effect on the coast from Saturday morning .

Alert warnings to North AP and Odisha coastline of strongest winds at 135-250 kmph, which are destructive. Please adhere to local warnings issued by govt. authorities.

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Severe Cyclone "Phailin"  Cat 3: (10.30 pm IST)

"Phailin", getting stronger by the hour, has reached a stage of Rapid Intensification. The Intensity which was 4.0 at 0000Z has rsen to 6.0 by 1200Z. 
And that is tremendous !
With an well formed eye, 15 kms in diameter, it is but obvious that the central uprising warm air is turbulent, and at the "warm eye" the cloud temperatures in the centre of the system has risen to 0c, while the outer cloud top temperatures are imaged at -80c.

Wind speeds and core pressure indicate a Cat 3 status...Winds around the eye are estimated  at 185 kmph (though DVORAK calculates at 212 kmph). Core pressure is sliding down at astounding speed, is currently estimated at 949 mb.

Now, with core winds of 185 kmph, if the upward warm current mentioned is strong, an outer eye , a circle of severe thunder storms, can form, and "choke " the original eye. In this phase, the cyclone weakens. But, generally, an outer ring can form if the original eye is less than 10 kms in diameter.
Can only re -strengthen if the inner wall is completely wiped out by the stronger outer eye.
But all this can be superbly observed  by a reconnaissance aircraft. 

Located now at 15.5N and 89.5E...
Tracking NW, "Phailin" will move towards the AP/Odisha border. Srikakulam, Vizianagram and Vizag District (AP) should be seriously alerted. And Gajapati and Ganjam Districts of Orissa should be alerted.

Next Report Friday 10 am IST
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Severe Cyclone "Phailin": Cat 1: As on 1 pm IST Thursday.

Location: 15N and 90.5E..Track NW towards North AP coast.
Central core estimated pressure :  980 mb..Eye clearly Formed !
Core Winds..120 kmph !!. Cat 1  .... Cloud Temperature falls to -80c. Vertical shear mild "brushing" seen. But immediate intensification to Cat 2 seen within 12 hrs with winds expected to cross 150 kmph.

A possibility of intensity decreasing slightly before landfall...But still could be severe. Just a possibility.

Wednesday, October 09, 2013

Conditions and parameters have become favourable to exit the SW Monsoon from further regions in North and NW India. 
What we see are parameters like the OLR and UTH going the "non monsoon" way. The water vapour image also points out to reduced seasonal moisture from the region. This is due to the high pressure in the 850 hp zone moving in rapidly from the west.
Monsoon Axis has shifted down south. If the East wind blowing in the Notrthern plain is shown as the only parameter showing "pro monsoon" condition, let me clarify that the East winds are not from Bay but from far east (Myanmar).

So, according to Vagaries, the SWM has withdrawn from Haryana, Delhi and West UP regions. See Map.


This is the longest SWM tenure in Delhi, beating the previous IMD record of 111 days in 1956. But, to compare, we wait for the IMD withdrawal date.In 1956, the SWM withdrew from Delhi on 13th October.
The post Monsoon type of clouding was reported from Delhi on Wednesday 9th..Stratocumulus not resulting from the spreading out of Cumulus
Altocumulus, the greater part of which is semitransparent; the various elements of the cloud change only slowly and are all at a single level
No Cirrus, Cirrocumulus or Cirrostratus

A WD is moving in from the West, so we can expect South winds in NCR by Thursday or Friday. Light rains expected in some parts on Thursday or Friday.

BB-15, 02B  latest Below in previous Post v
                                                                              v
                                                                              v

Monday, October 07, 2013

BB-15, 02B, as on 9PM IST Wednesday: Deep Depression heading to Cyclonic Storm...

Location: 13.9N and 92E. Winds :  90 kmph    Core Pressure:  997 mb  Cloud top Temperature at Centre:  -65c  Outer cloud temperature:  :-61c
Track Expected to continue NW towards the AP/Odisha coast. Very favourable Equatorial flow will produce extreme rains in SW and S quadrant. Wind shear minimal now.

Warning: As the  system moves, it will intensify into a cyclone by Wednesday Night/Thursday morning. Very heavy rains likely to commence on the Odisha and North AP coast from Friday. very squally and damaging gusty winds that could go up to 150 kmph along the coast at time of landfall. Landfall as of now expected around Saturday,12th October. 


Heavy rains expected along W.Bengal coast on Thursday evening onwards.

Another Posting of SWM withdrawal from Delhi tonite by 11 pm IST..

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1. BB-15 Report at 1 pm IST Wednesday:

BB-15,(02B), a deep Depression, is located at 13N and 93.5 E, thus having tracked NW. Current location is 170 kms N/NE of Port Blair.
Core pressure is estimated at 1000 mb, and is of T2.0 intense. Core central winds are estimated at 60 -65 kmph, but gusting to 80 kmph.
Cloud heights have increased due to force convection, and cloud tops are at -80c.
Favoured conditions show NW track to continue and head towards Odisha..

Next Report at 9 pm IST with map of track and estimated areas of possible effected regions and heavy rains.

2. Axis runs from Gujarat thru Chattisgarh and into BB-15. Embedded UAC over Gujarat and Chattisgarh, almost forming an upper trough parallele to sea level trough.


All parameters (barring 1) favour a SWM Withdrawal from Haryana and Delhi regions, West UP.....more in Note tonite..

x--------------------------------------x---------------------------------------------x----------------------------------x

Conditions favourable for SWM withdrawal from Delhi region by Wednesday or Thursday..shall put up note here on Wednesday....

BB-15 report at 10 pm IST:
Since last Vagaries' report at 1.30 pm IST, Depression BB-15 has moved to location 12N 94.5E, that is due westwards. In  hrs system has moved 100 kms , and is T 1.5 strength, 1003 mb..Core winds at 35-45 kmph and clouds higher in height having top temperatures of -80c.
The vertical wind shear (resistence) has decreased even more, and is between 5-15 knts.
BB-15 will graduate to Deep Depresion tomorrow (Wednesday).

Track will be NW, and cross the Andaman Island chain North of Port Blair. Though, the S and SW quadrant are showing very intense clouding and heavy rains over the Islands.
Port Blair recorded 91 mms till 830 am IST on Tuesday and 43 mms on Tuesda till 5.30 pm.
Karthik Narayan informs of massive rains from Andaman Islands: Mayabandar -25cm... Long Island-24 cm from 8 30 AM to 5 30PM today...

Chennai can get some showers form the "outer bands" when the system is en- route to the coast. That calculates to some gusty showers on Thursday/Friday. (All calculations on Current situation and position).


BB-15 Report at 1.30 pm IST:
BB-15 ( Depression): slight deeper, at 1002 mb, than our 10pm IST report. Having moved to 12N and 96E, it has shown a W/NW directional movement by about 90 kms. Now, having to encounter 20 kts vertical wind shear, which is less than its previous position, it can show tendency to get deeper soon. Current cloud top Temperatures are -70c.  Core winds at 35-45 kmph, it is showing convective band formation at SW of core. Band convergence in SE is taking shape.
Track expected NW. 


Next report on BB-15 at 9 pm IST. 

Posted on Monday @ 10 pm IST

BB-15. As a low pressure area at 1006 mb, has entered the Bay waters. On latest evaluation  it is located at 11.5N and 97.5E. Winds at core are 15 knts. 


Clouds convergence seen building around centre. Though organised bands are still not prominent.
However, some wind shear is seen near the system, and prominent shear is seen in the mid levels.



Seeing the other factors, the system would move N/NW initially, and maintain strength at 1002/1004 mb. Later, it can curve NW around 14N, and track towards Odisha/Bengal coast.

In the previous article, we had mentioned about the Monsoon axis slidig towards Central India. The axis has placed itself in the central India region. 

Now, we wait for the next development: the UAC formation in the axis ! I estimate the formation of a UAC around MP, and head....west !


Rohit's Page just Uploaded with very interesting Details of Mumbai-Pune region rainfall for this Monsoon...Very Imaginative Diagrams...See Rohit's Page..

Posted Monday 15th January: Very Unusual Weather for January in the Sub Continent.... North-East Monsoon has Ceased and is withdrawn fro...