10th July Post
Medium term Outlook (Not frequent in Vagaries)
The South Asian Monsoon circulation to weaken gradually towards the end of July and beginning of August 2025
The monsoon rainfall over major parts of India and South Asia in general have been above normal since the middle of June and gradually the large scale Monsoon Trough got established towards the end of June.
In the coming weeks, as per the latest available extended range NWP model forecasts, the monsoon rains will be moderately active until the end of July with large regional variability in rainfall pattern over India.
Note Excerpts from Vag. Gokul.
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Mumbai:
Friday 11th/Saturday 12th/Sunday13th: Some passing showers in parts of city intercepted with some sunshine. 7- 10 mms per day.
Monday 14th & Tuesday 15th : Marginal increase in rainfall frequency = 20-30 mms per day.
16th onwards decrease in rains.
Pune: Weekend >Partly Cloudy and no meaningful rains..hardly upto 7 mms per day in parts of city.
Almost a semi dry spell till 16th at least.
Goa: Moderate rains on Friday/Saturday/Sunday ..but substantial increase on Monday 13th and Tuesday 14th with 150 cumulative in these 2 days.
Sambhajinagar : Very negligible Rainfall till 16th at least.
Bharuch: Very little rain this weekend..Some increased rainfall on Monday for a day.
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Medikeri , Bengaluru and Hassan in South Interior Karnataka are facing a very dry and acute Monsoon, as seen from the table below.
