http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-irc.htm.....image of 1400Z 1st November
Thursday @ 5.30 am IST:
BB-10, a depression now, is centred at 13.8N and 77.5E. According to my estimate and imagery study, the centre is about 100 kms North of Bangalore, between Bangalore and Anantpur.
At 998 mb, with core winds at 35 knts, the confusion amongst readers of vagaries is the mass clouding in the East.
The spiral circulation has "stretched" to the east due to "fixation" in the East-West trough. The trough seems to be tilted to the East, as of today morning...
Posted @ 11.45 pm Wednesday:
Cyclone Nilam is gone and its a Deep Depression now. So, we'll come back to BB-10.
Current Position at 11.00 pm shows it at 13.3N and 78.2E , near Kolar in Karnataka, and movement W/NW thru Tumkur.
Chennai rainfall decreases by Friday (15-20 mms), and will be down to between 7-10 mms/day Saturday/Sunday.
**BB-10 tracks W/NW, and soon gets embedded in an East-West trough along the Maharashtra-Northern AP-Northern Karnataka line. This trough will extend into the upper levels at least till 850 hpa.
Forecast Thursday 1st November- Friday 2nd November:
Rainfall can be expected all along this trough line, with the heavier falls in the region the BB-10 system is embedded. Hence precipitation spreading into interior Karnataka, Northern AP and Southern Maharashtra, Western Vidharbha and Marathwada.
Light/medium rains drifting into Konkan and coastal Karnataka.
Saturday 3rd November: If the trough and BB-10 remain intact and sustainable (which is questionable as it is not the season), we may see some enhanced rainfall along the Konkan belt. If they have faded, then decrease in rainfall in the above mentioned regions.
(Indications for Mumbai observers in next 2 days if the trough is sustaining. Easterly winds in Mumbai will change to SE or S if its sustains).
We may even chance a guess of the system leaving the rough and sliding into the Arabian Sea on Saturday (50% chance)..hence we wait and observe...
Thursday 1st: Partly cloudy and hazy. Medium clouds from evening..
Friday 2nd: Partly cloudy. Light drizzles expected in some parts...rains upto 5 mms
Saturday 3rd: Cloudy, and cooler. Light rains, with medium heavy showers in some areas. Rains 5-10 mms. (tentative)
Pune: Thursday/Friday/Saturday: Cloudy with light rains upto 5 mms/day in different areas.Chance of a bit more on Saturday.
Kolkata remains stuffy on Thursday and Friday, finally getting showers on Saturday.
North of the trough line, the winds will be Easterly, and South of the system winds will be S/SE.
The trough, as it gets strengthened by the system, will see stronger N/NE winds. Result: Goodbye to O-3. It will never allow O-3, which was precipitating rains even in Dubai few days ago, will just dissolve in the far North.
But, a resulting high pressure in its place will bring clear weather and low temperatures in Northern India.
In fact, even Pakistan's central and Northern regions see a fall in night temperatures.
Maharashtra Rainfall figures, Cumulative till End October..compiled (as usual) by GSB..on Stats Page