Thursday, June 09, 2011

AS-1 Update:

Latest status and Strength as on 11.00 am IST: Depression Position 18.3N and 69.3E, winds max 33 knts in the southern periphery and pressure at 998 mb. Has remained stationary for the last 6 hrs, but deepening.

Seeing one of the the main indicators today, the 200 jet streams, it can be presumed that the depression will track the NW direction, skirting the Saurashtra and Pakistan coast. Can move due West after that towards Oman Gulf.

But seeing the SST in its onward journey, Vagaries wonders as to how much the system can really gather strength ?

True, other models still differ between themselves on the track and strength even today.

Presuming this course is adhered to, we can expect its effect along the Saurashtra coastal towns, and then along the Sindh coastal regions.

Gusty winds along Saurashtra coast could commence by Friday night.Rainfall also could commence along the Saurashtra coast from Saturday, and heavy rains barging into the Karachi regions by Monday. The sequence of time and date will be difficult to monitor and follow up at this stage.

Taking into consideration the past history of "time keeping " of AS 1, things can change. But today, the situation of jet streams and pressure parameters show this track.

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