Saturday, September 25, 2021

25th Night Post

Not predicted by any model, the defiant Cyclone "Gulab" has formed in the Bay. 


West ward movement of Gulab, and on crossing Odisha/North AP coast on 26th, very heavy rains expected on crossing. 

TPW


TPW shows Cyclone will weaken  and will move into Chhattisgarh as a Depression, again bringing heavy rains. 

Moving West into M. P, Gujarat and interior Maharashtra, it will pull moisture and precipitation into these States by Monday 27th & Tuesday 28th.

Gujarat will also benefit with increase in the rains. 

Good rainfall in Maharashtra on 27 & 28. Konkan including Mumbai can expect increase in the rains early next week. 

Fresh report tomorrow. 

 25th : Noon IST

BB-13: Deep Depression strength and Locations as per various Members:

CURRENT ESTIMATE

Date (mmddhhmm): 09250323

SATCON: MSLP = 992 hPa    MSW = 51 knots

SATCON Member Consensus: 50.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 54 knots

ADT: 990 hPa    53 knots    Scene: CDO    Date: SEP250515

CIMSS AMSU: 996 hPa    42 knots ( 77 Kmph)      Date: 09250323

ATMS: 995.1 hPa    37.9 knots ( 68 Kmph)   Date: 09241925

IMD :The estimated winds are at 55-65 kmph ( 1 minute & 3 minutes sustained wind speeds will differ)

Strengthening and heading towards Odisha /North A.P. as a Cyclone (Gulab) @ ( 65-75 kmph)








Friday, September 24, 2021

Posted 24th Night. 

Just yesterday we discussed the forming of BB 13 in the Bay. 

Unpredictable Favourable conditions like 80-100 Kj/cm² TCHP, wind shears, and MJO, has catapulted the system into the Bay as a Depression, on 24th evening. 40-50 kmph estimated winds. 


Will strengthen further and seeing good conditions, BB 13 will soon be Deep Depression by 25th morning. ( 50-60 kmph estimated winds) 

Due to the prevailing Sub Tropical Ridge at 20.5N  in the bay, and the Easterly winds South of it,


the System will track West or W/SW towards Odisha/North AP. 

Now, will it become a rare September Cyclone ( Gulab) in the bay? 

It at all, this will be the first cyclone after 2005 to hit AP coast in September month. And only the second cyclone in satellite era (1980 onwards). 

Another update tomorrow noon. 

24th/25th/26th September Weekend: 

Mumbai

Partly cloudy with sunny intervals. An occasional passing shower in different parts of Mumbai. Rainfall to increase on Sunday night. Monday 27th will get more rans. Temperature range between 32c and 25c. Real Feel 37c.

Monsoon not over. Water Storage in Mumbai lakes is 99-100%.

Pune: Partly cloudy and slightly warmer on the weekend. Few passing light showers in different parts of Pune. Temperature range between 28c and 21c. Real feel 32c.

Good rainfall increase expected in Gujarat State from Sunday 26th. Starting fron North Gujarat Region and subsequently into Saurashtra and Kutch.


Monsoon still active in Karachi (Sindh). 40 mms of rain on Thursday.

More rains expected on 28th/29th.

Thursday, September 23, 2021

 23rd September:

Satisfactory position. Video sent by farmer ( Sonne Shyam) from Phulambari Taluka, Aurangabad, Marathwada. 


After two low pressure systems from the bay, BB 11 & BB 12 another coming  BB 13, to Odisha around 25th.

Will move across central india and northern Maharashtra next week. 

Monsoon withdrawal from West Rajasthan delayed by about 10 - 15 days, around first week of October. Maharashtra monsoon rains till at least 10-13th October.

बंगालच्या उपसागरात निर्माण झालेले २ कमी दाबाचे क्षेत्र ओदिशा किनारपट्टीवर धडकले, मात्र आता पुन्हा एक कमी दाबाचे क्षेत्र साधारण २५ सप्टेंबर रोजी ओदिशा किनारपट्टीवर धडकण्याची शक्यता आहे. त्यानंतर हे कमी दाबाचे क्षेत्र भारताच्या मध्य भागा जवळ तसेच महाराष्ट्राच्या उत्तर भागातून सरकेल. त्यामुळे अरबी समुद्रातून देखील बाष्प खेचले जाईल व महाराष्ट्रात पुन्हा एकदा पावसाचे प्रमाण वाढू शकते. 

मान्सूनचा परतीचा प्रवास पश्र्चिम राजस्थानातून साधारण १०-१५ दिवस लांबला असून साधारण ऑक्टोबरच्या पहिल्या आठवड्यात पश्र्चिम राजस्थानातून मान्सूनचा परतीचा प्रवास सुरू होण्याची शक्यता आहे. महाराष्ट्रात मात्र जवळपास १०-१३ ऑक्टोबर पर्यंत मान्सूनचा पाऊस राहण्याची शक्यता आहे.

Marathi compilation by Vagarian Shreyas. 


Wednesday, September 22, 2021




BB-12 effect rainfall in West Bengal as on 21st 
Sagar Island 21 cms, Dum Dum 13 cms, Salt Lake 12 cms, Canning, DH 11 cms, Barrackpur IAF 10 cms, Durgachak, Sinril 9 cms, Midnapore 7cms & Kolkata (A) 6 cms.


Season's Total in Kolkata on 22nd: DumDum 1881 mms ( +729 mms)
Alipore 1615 mms(+454 mms)
Diamond Harbour: 2176 mms (+ 1055 mms)

(Weather of Kolkata /Santosh is a keen Vagarian follower also)
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Gujarat Heavy Rainfall amounts in mms 24 hrs ended 22 Morning

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Monday, September 20, 2021

 

20th September Afternoon Scene..Thunder Showers  in Vidharbh, Chattisgarh, West/East  M.P. and Gujarat Region.

Heavy thundershowers lashed Mumbai Metropolitan Region and nearby areas overnight. Some rainfall figures ending 8:30am on 20/09/2021(in mm) are as follows:

1.Mulund:173

2.Borivali West:144

3.Dahisar:143

4.Kandivali West:136

5.Dindoshi:134

6.Vikhroli:126

7.Naupada:115

8.Kurla:83

9.Andheri West:80

10.Vile Parle:79

11.Malad:76

12.Jogeshwari:75

13.Santacruz IMD:71,   14.Cooper Hospital:68

15.Colaba IMD:57        16.Nerul:52

17.Airoli:51                   18.Dombivli:49


Data Credits:MCGM & IITM

Compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

Sunday, September 19, 2021

Weather Scenario for the week from  Monday 20th - Thursday 23rd.   ...(Posted on 19th Night).

Rajasthan Monsoon withdrawal Delayed to some extent.

The lingering BB-11 is over East Rajasthan and West M P....Precipitating good rainfall in that region

Some High Amounts in last 24 hrs.: 

East Rajasthan : Pipalkhunt 12cms, Talera 11 cms, Bundi, Arnod & Ladhpura  9 cms, Chikali and Danpur 8 cms.

West M.P.: Nalkheda 14 cms, Sunser 12 cms, Ratlam 7 cms.

Next Week, Moderate showers expected in Delhi on Wednesday & Thursday 22nd/23rd.

Now, This sytem  will further enhance rainfall into Saurashtra, Kutch and North Gujarat Region on Tuesday 21st & Wednesday 22ndsouth Gujarat 

Surat & Bharuch will get intermittent rain on Tuesday 21st and Wednesday 22nd.

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, કચ્છ અને ઉત્તર ગુજરાત પ્રદેશમાં મંગળવારે 21 અને બુધવારે 22 મા દક્ષિણ ગુજરાતમાં વરસાદ વધારે છે
સુરત અને ભરૂચમાં 21 મી મંગળવાર અને 22 મી બુધવારે વારંવાર વરસાદ થશે.

Another LPA, BB-12, is off the North Odisha Coast, clouding in the S/SW segment. 

Likely to bring rainfall from Odisha thru Chattisgarh into East M.P. and Vidharbha from Monday 20th thru Wednesday 22nd.



Maharashtra:

Rainfall expected to increase in Konkan, Goa, Vidharbh and Marathwada from Monday 20th to Wednesday 22nd. Thunder Showers expected. Lesser effect in Madhya Maharastra.

North Madhya Maharashtra region (Dhule, Jalgaon, Nandurbar) can get some Thundershowers

Konkan rain not required for Rice, but ok for other crops.

Maharshtra State Monsoon continues this Month.

Jayakwadi Dam - Aurangabad. At 70.08% of its full capacity  compared to 98.00% at the same time last year.((Mah. Water Resources Dept)

सोमवार 20 ते बुधवार 22 तारखेपर्यंत कोकण, गोवा, विदर्भ आणि मराठवाड्यात पाऊस वाढण्याची शक्यता आहे. गडगडाटी पावसाची अपेक्षामध्य महाराष्ट्रात कमी परिणाम.

तांदळासाठी कोकण पाऊस आवश्यक नाही, परंतु इतर पिकांसाठी ठीक आहे.
महाराष्ट्र राज्य मान्सून या महिन्यात चालू राहतो.

जायकवाडी धरण - औरंगाबाद. 70.08% त्याच्या पूर्ण क्षमतेच्या ..98.00% मागील वर्षी त्याच वेळी. (Mah. Water Resources Dept)

Mumbai: Outlook for next 4 days..

After the few almost dry days, Rainfall expected to increase in Mumbai from Monday 20th thru Wednesday 22nd. Tuesday 21st and Wednesday 22nd will be rainy days with intermittent showers or thundershowers. Monsoon rains not over.

98%
Combined live storage across all lakes compared to 96.06% same time last year. 

Pune: Light rains or scattered showers in some parts of city.



Thursday, September 16, 2021

Posted Thursday 16th evening:

Heavy Rains in U.P....See below this article

This weekend, next 3 days, heavy rainfall possible (BB-11) in West M.P. and East Rajasthan.

BB-10 has merged in the trough axis.

A Low pressure BB-12 is likely to form in the Bay around 19th/20th.

Rainfall increase in Odisha and G.West Bengal from 19th.


Mumbai 17th/18th/19th: Weekend will be partly cloudy with periods of sunshine. A few passing showers. 

Water Storage at 98%.

Temperatures around 31c-26c range. Real feel 37c.

Pune: Sunny periodical intervals, light rain in parts. Temperature range 29c-20c...Real feel 26c.

Lonavala/Mahableshwar: Partly cloudy with some showers. Foggy at times.

Maharashtra Outlook for the Weekend 17th/18th/19th:

State will have scattered rainfall. Rainfall scattered in patches, with no meaningful rains.

However, Konkan and Ghats regions can get moderate showers at times.

Rainfall intensity to increase starting from Monday in Vidharbha.

Standing crops in Aurangabad region are healthy and will benefit with a bit of sunshine. Jayakwadi , the major source , is 58% full.


Pictures from Aurangabad Region Farms.

सप्टेंबर महिन्याच्या पहिल्या २ आठवड्यात राज्यात सर्वत्र चांगला पाऊस झाला व त्यामुळे मुंबई आणि पुणे शहरांना पाणीपुरवठा करणाऱ्या धरणांमध्ये पुरेसा पाणी साठा आहे. 

पुढचे ३-४ दिवस राज्यातील अंतर्गत भागात पावसाचे प्रमाण कमी राहील, पिकांसाठी ही पावसाची विश्रांती उपयोगी ठरेल. 
कोकण आणि पश्चिम घाट परिसरात पावसाच्या हलक्या ते मध्यम सरी अपेक्षित आहेत.
साधारण सोमवार २० सप्टेंबर पासून राज्यात पावसाचे प्रमाण पुन्हा वाढण्याची शक्यता आहे, विशेषतः विदर्भ प्रदेशात. याचे कारण म्हणजे बंगालच्या उपसागरात ओदिशा/पश्र्चिम बंगालच्या किनारपट्टी जवळ आणखी एक कमी दाबाचे क्षेत्र (BB-12) १८/१९ सप्टेंबर रोजी निर्माण होण्याची शक्यता आहे व ते साधारण पश्चिम/वायव्य दिशेस सरकुन पुन्हा एकदा देशाच्या पूर्व व मध्य भागात सोमवार २० तारखेपासून पासून पावसाचे प्रमाण वाढू शकते.

The Gujarat Region,specially South (Surat/Bharuch), will see increase in rainfall from Monday 20th.and moving in Saurashtra from 21st.
ગુજરાત પ્રદેશ, ખાસ કરીને દક્ષિણ (સુરત/ભરૂચ), 20 મી સોમવારથી વરસાદમાં વધારો જોવા મળશે.21 મીએ સૌરાષ્ટ્રમાં

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U.P. Rainfall last 24 hrs ended  16th Thursday Morning in cms:

Pratapgarh (t) (dist Pratapgarh), Ayodhya (dist Ayodhya)-20 each 

Fursatganj (dist Amethi)-19; 

Kunda (dist Pratapgarh) , Mau Tehsil (dist Chitrakoot) , Patti (dist Pratapgarh) , Basti Cwc (dist Basti) , Lalganj Aara (dist Pratapgarh), Rae Bareli Cwc (dist Rae Bareilly)-17 each; 

Mirzapur Cwc (dist Mirzapur)-15; 

Gauriganj (dist Amethi) , Bindki (dist Fatehpur), Prayagraj Sadar (dist Prayagraj), Phaphamau(fm) (dist Prayagraj)-13 each; 

Raniganj (dist Pratapgarh), Lucknow ( Cr ) (dist Lucknow), Sultanpur Obsy (dist Sultanpur)-12 each; 

Gyanpur (dist Sant Ravidas Nagar), Musafir Khana (dist Amethi), Lucknow (hs) (dist Lucknow), Bansgaon (dist Gorakhpur), Sultanpur Cwc (dist Sultanpur), Ghanghata (dist Sant Kabir Nagar), Lucknow ( Ap) (dist Lucknow), Sambhal (dist Sambhal) , Ayodhya (ag) (dist Ayodhya) 11 each; 

Chhatnag (dist Prayagraj), Amethi (dist Amethi), Karchhana (dist Prayagraj), Varanasi/bab Aero (dist Varanasi) , Gorakhpur (dist Gorakhpur)10 each; 

Bara Banki (dist Barabanki) , Mirzapur Tehsil (dist Mirzapur) , Bansi Tehsil (dist Siddharth Nagar) , Tarabganj (dist Gonda), Varanasi-b.h.u. (dist Varanasi), Chilaghat (dist Jhansi)- 9 each






Wednesday, September 15, 2021

 On World Weather Page:

Unusual Snowfall in Greenland 

The remnants of Hurricane Larry dropped abundant snowfall on Greenland just as the summer melt season was coming to an end.

Tuesday, September 14, 2021

Posted 14th September Night

BB 11 Deep Depression after crossing Odisha coast has tracked northwestward. The  system, is now over Chhattisgarh.

For 2 days, the deep depression left  drenched most parts of Odisha. The depression will move further northwest and weaken  in the next 24 hours.

The nearing and interaction of this system with BB 10 over Gujarat and has already enhanced rainfall over the rain deficit state.

The system as a low pressure will track in to Rajasthan and lash the border areas also with rainfall. While centred over Rajasthan, this system will give moderate rains over Haryana and Punjab

This will delay withdrawal of the monsoon from the westernmost parts of Rajasthan.

 The All India rainfall deficiency now at -5% will improve towards the end of the season.

Monday, September 13, 2021

Torrential Rainfall in Gujarat on 13th..see below

Pune Dams Full.. 13th September

Credit for information Vagarian Karan (Pune) 

BB 10

Torrential rain lashing Gujarat today 13th.

Rainfall from 6am - 8 pm on Monday 13th...




Gujarat rainfall




BB 11 in action 

Some massive rainfall figures from Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha ending 8:30am on 13/09/2021(in mm):

1.Astaranga:530

2.Kakatapur:525

3.Balikuda:440

4.Naugaon:380

5.Puri IMD:343

6.Gop:331

7.Satyabadi:328

8.Raghunathpur:323

9.Nimapara:302

10.Erasama:273

11.Kujanga:265

12.Jagatsinghpur:264

13.Pipli:263

14.Biridi:258

15.Tirtol:245


data compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

Sunday, September 12, 2021

Posted Sunday 12th Night

BB-11, much needed ( 2nd) Depression of this Monsoon... 


Will September be a Game Changer  ? 

Will the deficiency improve? 

-----------------     -------

Mumbai had moderate showers on Sunday.. See color code for amounts



Snow on September 11th:

Himachal Dhauladhars Range get first snowfall of season... September 11th.

The upper reaches of Dhauladhar ranges and the Bara Bhanghal valley experienced the first spell of snowfall of the season. 
Meanwhile, the state received rain as on 11th morning as given, and Jogindernagar was the wettest with 94 mm of rain followed by Ghamroor (Kangra) 73 mm, Nahan 49 mm, Kufri 45 mm, Jubbarhatti 41 mm, Dalhousie 37 mm, Shimla 35 mm, Ghumarwin and Gohar 32 mm each, Kumarsain 31 mm, Sujanpur Tihra and Bhunter 25 mm each, Kasauli 24 mm, Jawali 21 mm, Shahpur 20.5 mm, Dharamsala, Bilaspur, Rampur, Kheri, Seobagh and Bajura 19.
Excerpts from The Tribune

For 12th -13th Mumbai and Pune forecast update: 

Strengthening westerlies due to BB-10 remnants and BB-11 and active offshore trough will continue the current status in rainfall along the west coast.

850 winds

Mumbai MMR: A couple of days more of passing showers, some heavy. Average 40-80 mm /day.

Thane district and Northern Suburbs can get heavier rain (above 70 mm/day possible). 

Yellow Alert (mild) 

Yesterday's (Saturday) in Mumbai :

Some rainfall figures from Mumbai Metropolitan Region and nearby regions ending 8:30am on 12/09/2021(in mm):

1.Matheran:136

2.Chembur:84

3.Wadala:80

4.Byculla:78

5.Nerul:75

6.Belapur:73

7.Dadar West(Vag Pvt Reading):70

8.Vashi:61

9.Naupada:58

10.CSMT:57

11.Mulund:56

12.Goregaon:46

13.Dombivali:44

14.Vikhroli:43

15.Ram Mandir:42

16.Airoli:36

17.Kandivali:33

18.Dahisar:31

19.Malad, #Mira Road:30

20.Bandra, #Colaba IMD:29

21.Santacruz IMD:21

22.Bhayandar:17

Data compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

Pune: Light to moderate showers, pleasant weather. 

Moderate rain for Konkan coast, Ghats can get a few heavy showers.

Rain/Thundershowers in patches likely in Delhi NCR region, localised heavy thundershower possible

Forcast compilation assisted by Vagarian Shreyas

Saturday, September 11, 2021

Mumbai on 11th in 12 hrs ended 8,30pm

Colaba 7.8 mms, Scruz 11.4 mms. 

September 11th .. Rains in Delhi


Gujarat today.. 11th



Friday, September 10, 2021

Mumbai forecast for Friday 10th  and weekend: 

Weak to moderate intensity offshore trough along the coast will result in passing showers, with sharp sunny intervals and may be a little windy at times. Around 10-30 mm/day average.

 Thane district and eastern townships may receive slightly more rain. 

No Alerts. 

Pune Weekend: Intermittent light rain with occasional moderate shower, pleasant weather.

Weekend: North & South Gujarat region likely to get good rainfall this weekend. 

Occasional showers in Surat, Valsad & Bharuch.Moderate occasionally raining in Ahmedabad & Vadodara

Forecast compilation assisted by Vag. Shreyas. 

See note in below post. 

Posted 9th August Late Night

Formations of circular winds are developing in Northeast Bay.                        (850 hpa) 


Another low pressure area, BB 11, second in September, is likely to form over Bay by 10th/11th.  It is likely to become well marked in next 24 hours.

The low pressure area is expected to track west of northwest over states of , Chhattisgarh and M.P

The system will bring precipitation  across , Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra and Gujarat. 

Under the influence of this low pressure, rainfall activity will increase between 14th and 20th September, over the central parts of the country. 

The remnant of previous BB10 is now lying as a Circulation over West Madhya Pradesh East Rajasthan This is going to stagnate over the same region for the next 2 days, 11th & 12th. Rainfall continues for 2 days in this region. 

Thursday, September 09, 2021

Daily Rainfall from 2 September - 9 September...column starts from 2nd September

DISTRICT: PUNE         
AMBEGAON GHODEGAON0.00.00.04.03.018.017.00.043.0
BARAMATI0.00.00.0 9.125.80.20.035.3
BHOR1.01.01.07.00.09.00.019.040.0
CHINCHWAD - ARG0.00.00.09.5 30.50.08.548.5
DAUND0.00.00.020.01.00.00.00.021.0
INDAPUR15.03.00.013.64.019.01.00.055.6
JUNNAR2.00.00.010.00.027.012.00.051.0
KHED RAJGURUNAGAR0.00.01.02.00.09.015.00.027.0
LONAVALA_AGRI12.08.48.141.223.113.214.451.2246.8
NDA PUNE -  ARG0.01.00.012.56.514.53.53.544.0
PAUD MULSHI0.02.00.035.03.04.05.032.089.0
PUNE AP LOHEGAON IMD PT         
PUNE CITY - IMD OBSY0.20.00.015.61.819.81.91.842.8
PURANDAR SASVAD0.00.03.011.05.068.01.00.088.0
SHIRUR GHODNADI0.00.00.025.05.00.018.00.048.0
TALEGAON AWS0.00.00.05.01.514.510.023.755.2
VADGAON MAVAL2.00.05.87.02.018.213.26.255.4
VELHE3.014.06.022.02.02.05.041.0105.0




DISTRICT: AURANGABAD
         
AURANGABAD AP-IMD OBSY7.60.00.046.60.62.4127.50.2201.9
GANGAPUR0.00.00.015.024.00.044.00.099.0
KANNAD0.00.00.030.016.039.0116.08.0227.0
KHULTABAD0.00.00.052.02.03.0120.022.0224.0
PAITHAN1.00.00.057.05.06.047.01.0159.0
PHULAMBRI5.00.00.029.00.05.077.00.0149.0
SILLOD0.00.00.025.00.019.045.027.0166.0
SOEGAON6.00.010.0110.018.011.044.04.0248.0
VAIJAPUR0.00.00.02.02.00.0107.02.0116.0
         

25th Night Post Not predicted by any model, the defiant Cyclone "Gulab" has formed in the Bay.  West ward movement of Gulab, and o...