Friday, December 31, 2021

31st December...




Continuing from yesterday's post, 

Year end bonus for Chennai... Mean total rainfall for Chennai in Dec is just 177.4 mm.. And

Massive Rainfall in Chennai & the suburbs. Rainfall ending 8:30 am on 31.12.2021

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------in mm (min 60 mm)

DGP office - 237

Avadi - 230

MRC Nagar - 215

Nungambakkam - 201

Poonamallee - 201

KK Nagar - 197

Ambattur - 196

Anna University - 190

Tondairpet - 190

Chembarabakkam - 189

ACS Medical College (Vanagaram) - 185

Nandanam - 184

Aynavaram - 177

Alwarpet - 173

Perambur - 155

Meenambakkam - 149

Kottivakkam - 145

Valsarawakkam - 143

Shollingnallur - 124

Adyar - 120

Korattur Anaicut - 118

Mogappair East - 110

Tirur (Sevvapet)- 109

Redhills - 103

Poondi - 97

Kelampakkam - 94

Anna Nagar West - 93

Pallikaranai - 90

Cholavaram - 90

Tamaraipakkam - 90

Anna Nagar - 87

Sriperumbedur - 86

Tamabaram - 69

Sathyabama University - 64

Hindustan University - 63

Katupakkam (near Vandalur) - 62

Tiruvallur - 56

Reasons Analysis by Vagarian T.Gokul (Pune) :

Leading edge of a moisture filled easterly surge approached Tamilnadu coast with winds decreasing around the edge.... probably leading to moisture convergence in the lower levels and at the same time the divergence associated with the upper level trough (east of trough axis ) probably aided in dynamic lifting by providing upper level ventilation to the column....and along with some frictional convergence as it neared the coast .... Broad understanding...


Large amounts of moisture flux over Southern bay of Bengal from south China sea
Easterly wind surge in the lower levels equatorward side of the Siberian high

Upper level divergence was seen to the east of trough axis

Information and post courtesy to Vagarian T.. Gokul.

Thursday, December 30, 2021

Posted 30th December

Chennai to receive good showers next 3 days...

5pm Thursday ⬇



After a poor performance in December, Tamil Nadu on 30th & 31st could Possibily see  the final NEM spell  over coastal regions bringing Moderate increase in rainfall.

Wednesday, December 29, 2021

FAQ.. Which is the Coldest time of the Day... 

See Weather Knowledge Page

35 &36.

Two new updates on Weather knowledge. 


Maintaining the goal (24th and 28th December post), several cities in Maharashtra recorded minimum temperatures as follows:


Mumbai Colaba 18.6°C 

Mumbai Santacruz 17.4°C 

Matheran 15.4°C 

Pune Shivajinagar 12.4°C 

Nashik 11.6°C 




Rainfall in the Regions mentioned in our Post of 24th, 

As on 29th Morning








Tuesday, December 28, 2021

Weather forecast posted 28th Tuesday, for next 4 days (29th Dec-1st Jan) - cooler now but warming up by New Year.


Mumbai: The typical Mumbai winter feel will persist today (28th) and tomorrow 29th December. Temperature will rise from 30th, with max temperature reaching 33°C or higher on 31st December and 1st January as easterly winds affect the west coast during most of the daytime (blocking the pleasant sea breeze). Min temperature may rise to around 20-21°C (Now 18/19c) by New Year. 


Interiors in Thane district may see slightly cooler nights than Mumbai. 


Pune: Not much change in the temperatures, single digit min still eludes the city. Slight increase in min temperature likely from 31st December. Max/min may remain around 29°C/14°C. 


Aurangabad region - After cooler weather tomorrow, night temperature likely to increase from 30th December. Max/min temperature may be in the range of 30°C/14°C.

Friday, December 24, 2021

Posted 24th December ..Afternoon

Wet spell over northwest and central India: 




26th Onwards: Rain/Snow in J&K, Ladakh, H.P, and Uttarakhand.

27th Onwards: Regions covered with Moderate rains  will be Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and Uttar Pradesh and  over Rajasthan.

27th-29th Onwards: Precipitation will cover Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh  &Vidarbha.

Scattered Rainfall/Thunder likely on 27th/28th/29th  in Vidharbh ( Nagpur/Akola) and parts of Marathwada (Aurangabad) on 28th..

Weekend 3 days Weather 24th/25th/26th:

Mumbai: Sunny pleasant/hazy weather with the temperatures around the 29-19c range.

Pune cool at around 30-13c range.

Mahabaleshwar will be cool around the 23-12c range.


Thursday, December 23, 2021

 What is UV Index...Explanation on Weather Knowledge-35 Page

Please read this Page often...Loads of Weather Details.

Monday, December 20, 2021

 Mumbai/Pune/Hill Station Weather forecast from 20th to 24th December:

Mumbai, Pune and all of konkan and western Maharashtra will see a gradual drop in temperature in the coming 3-4 days, and more specifically after 21st December. 

Mumbai minimum may be around 18°C and possibly drop till 17°C by Thursday. Maximum temperature in Mumbai and konkan coast likely to drop from Wednesday (will be ~30°C instead of 32-33°C seen at present) as daytime easterly winds weaken and sea breeze sets in early. 

Interiors in Thane district may see min dropping till 13-14°C and further drop till 12°C by Thursday. 

Pune min may approach 10°C and outskirts may dip in single digits.

Nashik district may see single digit min temperature of 7-9°C. 

Mahabaleshwar will see min temperature of around 8-10°C while Lonavala may be cool at around 13°C.

By Shreyas

Sunday, December 19, 2021

 Posted 19th December

Nichar and Kalpa in Kinnaur district experienced 10 cm and 8 cm snowfall, respectively. Kothi in Kullu got 7.5 cm snow, Sarahan and Narkanda 5 cm each and Keylong 1.5 cm snowfall.

Tourist town Manali, McLeodganj and Naddi village and Dalhousie also got mild snow to the delight of tourists.

















 

Thursday, December 16, 2021

 See Climatology Page on Vagaries..Super collection of Cyclone History Data by Vagarian Vineet Kumar (IITM)...Specially for Vagaries.




16th December





Wednesday, December 15, 2021

Posted 15th December...Afternoon: 

A cyclonic circulation is close to southern parts of Gulf of Thailand. 

It is likely to become more marked and may become a low pressure area over the same region in the next 24hr.  It may become a depression over the same area on 16th and 17th December. Around 19 th Dec, the weather system will be placed in the close proximity of South Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands.

Heavy rains in Andaman Islands.

The system is expected to recurve and fizzle out.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the second year in a row, the cooler sister to El Niño showed up  in the Eastern Pacific. 

Dec 1st Image

La Niña is expected to stick around until at least spring 2022 in the Northern Hemisphere.

This coupling of the atmosphere and ocean alters atmospheric circulation and jet streams in ways that intensify rainfall in some regions and bring drought to others.


Tuesday, December 14, 2021

Sunday, December 12, 2021

 Gujarat weather forecast for next 4 days (13-16 December):


Weather will gradually turn cooler in almost all of Gujarat from tomorrow onwards.


  • Max/min temperature for Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar and Vadodara regions likely to drop to around 27°C/14°C by Tuesday 14th December, and a further drop to 26°C/13°C possible from Wednesday. 
  • Bharuch region will see pleasant nights (around 15°C) and further drop from Thursday 16th. 

  • Places in Saurashtra may also see temperatures around 26°C/12°C. Nights in Kutch may be colder with min dropping to single digits (8-9°C).
  • Surat may see max dropping below 30°C from Tuesday while min may be around 16-17°C.

 Mumbai & Pune - Mid December, but Weather is still warm


Forecast for next 4 days (Monday 13th to Thursday 16th December):


Mumbai: Warm day temperature on Monday (32-33°C) due easterly winds. Both day and night temperature will drop from Tuesday as winds change to northerlies. 

Tuesday onwards, max temperature likely to be around 30°C and min may drop below 20°C. Slight increase in winds from Tuesday may reduce the haziness in the air. 

Interiors in Thane district and foothills of Western Ghats may see min temperature dropping to around 15-16°C from Tuesday.

Similar forecast for rest of the konkan belt. 

Pune: Pleasant weather will continue with max around 28-29°C and min around 13-14°C. Peak winter chill still eluding the city.

Friday, December 10, 2021

Kashmir valley has not received adequate rain and snow this season so far, from 01 st Nov - 09th Dec 2021.
No active western disturbance is expected in the next 10 days or maybe beyond.
December is likely to fall short of its average figure by a big margin. 
The entire Kashmir valley will witness ‘dry cold’ with temperatures recording below the normal. 








Thursday, December 09, 2021

Minimum Temperatures in NW India on 9th Morning;

Punjab: Adampur 5.2c, Faridkot 5.5cBhatinda 6.0c,  Amritsar 6.8c, Gurdaspur 7.7c

Rajasthan :   

Churu 4.5c, Sikar 5.0c,, Piani 6.4c, Bhilwara 7.7c, Jaisalmer 8.3c,

Haryana:

Hisar 6.0c,, Narnaul 6.5c, Sirsa 7.9c, Karnal 8.4c

New Delhi:

Lodhi Road 8.3c, S"Jung 8.4c.

Ladakh

Drass -15c, Leh & Thoise  -10c, 



Wednesday, December 08, 2021

 Cold Wave and Below normal Night temperatures likely in Rajasthan on 9th/10th/11th December...

Churu records 4.5c on 8th.

Tuesday, December 07, 2021

 Vagaries forecast

औरंगाबाद जिल्हा - पुढचे ४ दिवसाचा हवामानाचा अंदाज 

पुढचे ४ दिवस (8 dec- 12 dec) हवामान विशेषतः कोरडे राहील. किमान तापमान साधारण १४°-१६°C असेल. शुक्रवार १० डिसेंबर आणि शनिवार ११ डिसेंबरला आकाश थोड्या प्रमाणात ढगाळ राहील व किमान तापमानात आणि आद्रतेत थोडी वाढ अपेक्षित आहे.

Monday, December 06, 2021

Posted on 6th December Monday night 

Forecast for next 3 days (7th to 9th December):


Mumbai: Rise in day temperature due easterly winds. Max temperature likely to be around 34°C, dry afternoons. Sea breeze setting in by late afternoon/evening. Nights will be in the range of 20-21°C. 

Interiors in Thane district may see min temperature dropping to 16-17°C.

Pune: Winter chill will be felt, especially after sunset. Min temperature may drop to around 11-12°C. Outskirts may see slightly lower temperature.

Sunday, December 05, 2021

Friday, December 03, 2021

Outlook for the next 3 days (4th, 5th, 6th December): 

BB-20 intensified into cyclone Jawad. It will move north-northwest initially and then towards northeast and may strengthen slightly as it approaches the coast of Puri, Odisha by 5th December. It may travel along the Odisha and West Bengal coasts thereafter, bringing rain all along these regions and into northeast India. 

Rainy weather with some heavy spells likely along Odisha coast from tonight into tomorrow as the clouds associated with cyclone Jawad reach the coast prior to the storm center.



For north India, a western disturbance (D-2) is likely to affect the western Himalayan states on 5th and 6th December bringing rain at low elevations, foothills and snowfall in the mid-upper reaches. 

After the passage of this WD, cold northwesterlies will blow over northern plains, intensifying the winter chill.  


Weekend forecast for Mumbai, Pune and for all of konkan and Madhya Maharashtra: 

Mainly dry weather to return, however some patchy rain/showers likely in the vicinity of western Ghats, parts of Madhya Maharashtra and interior konkan region for another day or two because of the excess moisture push from Arabian Sea. 

Mumbai: Daytime temperature will hover around 30°C, nights will be around 22°C. Some fog may be observed during early morning hours.

Pune: Day temperature around 28-29°C, nights will be pleasant around 16°C. No major drop in temperature at nights. Early mornings maybe foggy. 

Mahabaleshwar and Lonavala to witness pleasant weather, with chance of some spotty showers and early morning fog. 

Thursday, December 02, 2021

Posted Thursday 2nd Night

Mumbai & Pune : The winter rain spell in Mumbai over after record rains. Cool weather and shallow fog will prevail on Friday & Saturday morning. 

Due to weak trough alignment with BB20, Small chance of light patchy rain in some parts only, not widespread. 

----------------

The system BB 20, forecasted last week is now Deep Depression in Central Bay.

A cyclone ( Jawad) will generate by 4th.Dec.

Strong system BB20 will by pass T. N. and skirt coast of North A. P. 

May strike coastal Odisha around 5th or 6th December. 

 Cool December rains in and around Pune region ending 8:30 am on 02/12/2021 in mm(Minimum temperatures in brackets):


1.WadgaonSheri:128(16.8°c)

2.LoniKalbhor:115(13.6°c)

3.Chinchwad:103(16.2°c)

4.Dimbhe:92

5.Yerwada:89

6.Khed(15°c) & Bibwewadi(14.7°c):87

7.Vir, Tathawade & Lohegaon(15.7°c):86

8.TalegaonDhamdhere(16.2°c) & Malin(15.3°c):85

9.Chaskaman:84

10.Pashan:83(14.7°c)

11.Dudulgaon:80(16.1°c)

12.Kalmodi:77

13.Lavale(15.4°c) & Pune IMD(15.4°c):75

14.Bhor:74(15.6°c)

15.Walhe:73(16.3°c)

16.Waki:72

17.Warasgaon:71

18.Junnar:68(15.5°c)

19.Morgaon:66

17.Rajgurunagar(15.2°c) & Magarpatta(16.7°c):65

18.Talegaon(14.7°c)& Indapur(16°c):64

19.Khadakwadi:55(15.2°c)

20.Daund:52(16.3°c)


Data compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte


December rains in and around Mumbai Metropolitan Region ending at 8:30am on 02/12/2021(in mm):


1.Badlapur(Vagarian Pvt Reading):118

2.Dahanu:114

3.Naupada:102

4.Vashi, Grant Road:100

5.Andheri:97

6.Dombivli, Mumbra, Goregaon & Dadar W(Vagarian Pvt Reading):95

7.Vile Parle, Vikhroli & Matunga:94

8.Airoli & Juhu:93

9.Sion:92

10.Santacruz IMD:91

11.Belapur & Colaba IMD:90

12.LowerParel & Dahisar:89

13.Nerul:88

14.KoparKhairane,Seawoods & Kalyan:87

15.Pawne & Marol:85

16.Mahalaxmi:84

17.Umerkhadi:83

18.Mulund:81

19.Kandivali:79

20.Borivali:78

21.Memonwada:76

22.Matheran:71


Data compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Posted Sunday 28th November

Heavy rains continue in Coastal T. N.... And will get heavy showers for two days more, thus completing a memorable 🌧 figure for Chennai for November. 

Below Stats of Chennai from PJ









Continuing from last post, 

BB-19 expected to reorganize at 925 hpa levels and above, as it enters the Arabian Sea tomorrow and becomes an Low Pressure, AS-5. 

This Low Pressure AS-5 will track north parallel to the West coast of India and can possibly intensify till well marked low (WML). Then will fizzle out around 3rd off the North Konkan Coast.




AS-5 will interact with an incoming westerly trough in jet stream at 200 hPa and will move in a northeast direction from December 1. 

W. D. rains effect in North & North West India from 3rd, for a couple of days. 


Mumbai:🌦Rains again next week, from Tuesday 30th evening, Wednesday and Thursday 2nd. ( It's not normal for Mumbai, but also not the first time we see December rains). 

 Expecting increasing cloudiness with light to moderate showers from Tuesday 30th November evening. Rain will increase further on December 1st and 2nd with moderate rain and occasional heavy shower for Mumbai. 

Cumulative rainfall from 30th November Tuesday t nuo 2nd December Thursday Night for Mumbai : Ranging from 20 mms - 45 mms. Cooler day temperatures below 30°C. 

Mahableshwar & Lonavala, going to be very pleasant on 30th Tuesday and 1st Wednesday with showers. 

Pune and Nashik:

End of November and again we see a cloudy ⛅ sky and warmer temperatures. Minimum temperature will rise again. 

Cloudy weather with light showers and cool daytime conditions ( 26c) expected for these regions on Wednesday 1st and Thursday 2nd December. 

Gujarat: South Gujarat🌦 (Surat/Bharuch) may see increasing cloudiness and light to moderate rain from 30th November till 2nd December. Cooler days. 

Parts of Saurashtra and East Gujarat (Ahmedabad - Vadodara - Bhavnagar region) may see some moderate-heavy rain on 1st and 2nd December. 

Compilation assisted by Vag. Shreyas. 

Friday, November 26, 2021

 Posted 26th November... 


BB 19 keeps NEM (over) Active

Rainfall as on 26th in cms

TAMILNADU: Kayalpattinam (dist Toothukudi) 31, Tuticorin (dist Toothukudi) 27, 

Tiruchendur (dist Toothukudi) 25, Nagapattinam (dist Nagapattinam) 19, Srivaikuntam (dist 

Toothukudi) 18, Kulasekarapattinam (dist Toothukudi) 16, Vaippar (dist Toothukudi) 15, 

Karaikal (dist Karaikal), Tiruvaiyaru (dist Thanjavur), Satankulam (dist Toothukudi), 

Ottapadiram (dist Toothukudi), Pelandurai (dist Cuddalore) 12 each, Tirupuvanam (dist 

Sivaganga), Srimushnam (dist Cuddalore), Sattur (dist Virudhunagar), Peravurani (dist 

Thanjavur), Labbaikudikadu (dist Perambalur), Palayamkottai (dist Tirunelveli) 11 each, 

Dindigul (dist Dindigul), Tiruvarur (dist Tiruvarur), Budalur (dist Thanjavur), Agaram Seegoor 

(dist Perambalur), Vembakottai (dist Virudhunagar), Sivaganga (dist Sivaganga) 10 each, 

Tambaram (dist Chengalpattu), Manimutharu (dist Tirunelveli), Nannilam (dist Tiruvarur),

Kvk Kattukuppam Arg (dist Kancheepuram), Satyabama University Arg (dist Chengalpattu), 

Chembarabakkam (dist Tiruvallur), Kadambur (dist Toothukudi), Maniyachi (dist Toothukudi), 

Cheranmahadevi (dist Tirunelveli) 9 each, 

KERALA & LAKSHADWEEP AREA: 

Thiruvananthapuram 7,

Neyyattinkara 

(Thiruvananthapuram district) 6, Thiruvananthapuram Airport, Myladumpara (Idukki district), 

Airport Chakka ARG & Perumkadavila ARG (both in Thiruvananthapuram district) 5 each, 

Nedumangad (Thiruvananthapuram district), Kumarakom (Kottayam district), Chittur 

(Palakkad district) & Vellayani AWS (Thiruvananthapuram district) 4 each, 

Thursday, November 25, 2021

Posted 24th Night:


BB 19 expected to bring increased rains to T.N & A.P. this weekend, 25th thru 28th. 

The weak system BB 19 is expected to move West and cross into the Arabian Sea. 

This can bring precipitation to  Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra  next week. More on this later.

Mumbai & Pune will get dry and warm weather this weekend..25th thru 28th. No chances  of getting a major shift to cooler temperatures. 

Rain expected  again next week . Will track the system and quantify  later.

Since 1970, a total of 239 cyclonic storms have formed in the Indian Seas (Bay of Bengal & Arabian Sea).  Out of this, 164 formed in Bay of Bengal and 75 over the Arabian Sea.

There are initial indicators for development of the first cyclone of this post monsoon season over Bay Of Bengal around end of November or start of December. 

A low pressure system BB -20, is expected to enter Andaman Sea from Gulf of Thailand around 29th November. This system B- 20, remains under observation for any significant development. 

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

23rd November

If no cyclone forms in next 7 days in north india ocean then for the first time after 1990 the north indian ocean will be cyclogenesis free in Oct-Nov months. 

Information study by Vagarian Vineet Kumar (IITM Researcher) 

Monday, November 22, 2021

22nd November:
Clear skies bring cold temperatures in J&K and Ladakh
Today's minimum
Drass -13c, Leh -8c, Numbra -9cKargil -5c. 



Mumbai: Outlook from today 22nd till Wednesday 24th November:

Light to moderate rain/Thundershowers expected in Mumbai region today. Some localized areas may get heavy shower for few minutes. 
Pune and neighborhood region to also get some rain with localized moderate intensity Thundershower today. Intensity reducing from tomorrow.

Rain intensity reducing over most of western Maharashtra from tomorrow. 

Dry weather from Thursday 25th onwards.

Sunday, November 21, 2021

 Thunder Showers covering Mumbai... @9.20 pm image


Posted Sunday 21st November

Goa Special  .... 

Massive Rains in Goa

This has become the wettest November ever for Panjim... With 9 days remaining. 
November ☔ rains till today total 223mms.Record was 212 mms in 1922.

Panji Goa received November Record Rains for 24hr period. 121 mms on 21st ,against old record of 109 mms in a day on 6th November 1922.



Cumulative rains forecasted for Goa ( Vagaries) was 75 mms ( 15th-19th) 

Saturday, November 20, 2021

 Posted Saturday Evening

As explained, BB 18 ( interior system) will fizzle out. 



In cms

Unusually Heavy rains in Udaipur.. As on 20th Morning


Friday, November 19, 2021

Some South Gujarat towns got good rainfall on Friday 18th specially between 4pm & 6pm..Valsad drenched 83 mn, Surat 40 mms.. Rains☔. ..2 Systems Managed the forecast of 14th ( vagaries). 


Posted Friday Afternoon:

Heavy Showers lash Bangaluru as BB-18 moves inland.

Bangaluru  A.P. 91 mms, City 74 mms as on Friday morning 24 hrs.

BB-18 is expected to fizzle out into an UAC  in the Interior Karnatak Region..


But, rains continue this weekend in the Interior Karnataka and southern Madhya Maharashtra and South Konkan.

Outlook for this weekend: 19th/20th/21st.

  • Goa: Light rains recorded on 18th. Moderate  type of thundershowers will continue till Monday 22nd.
  • South Konkan & South Madhya Maharashtra:  Moderate  type of thundershowers will continue till Monday 22nd.
  • Mumbai: Warm and humid conditions this weekend. Light to medium rains likely to continue in parts of Mumbai this weekend.
  • Pune: Moderate thundershowers likely in parts of Pune . Weather conditions will be warm and above normal winter temperatures.
  • Aurangabad: Some light showers on Sunday 21st.
Gujarat rains yesterday

The Mumbai lakes and dams level reported at 6 am on  07th July 2022  is  276129 ML (19%)  of the total  1447363 ML . Last year on  07th July...