Friday, July 31, 2015

Article on Marathwada to be Printed in Lokmat Times of Monday 3rd August..See Mumbai Page

Rajasthan Drenched by Heavy rains last week from System..see daily rainfall of last week of July in Vagaries North...and Goa Update in Vagaries Goa


July 2015  has turned out to be the 3rd driest July on record for Mumbai Santa Cruz...

This July (2015) saw 360 mms of rain, 286 mms in 1986 and the previous lowest was in 2002 at 103 mms.
Mumbai Colaba measured only 281 mms in July 2015. Though it is not a record...Lowest was a meagre 103 mms in 2002

Marathwada too is suffering from extreme scarcity...Aurangabad has seen only 14 mms this July. But this is not far, or negligible from the record low which was 11 mms in 1971.

Parbhani measured only 21 mms this year, but this not far, the lowest driest July on record was 15 mms in 1971.

Maharashtra Monsoon: 1st June - 31st July 2015

Tabulation by Vagarian Puneet 



Thursday, July 30, 2015

Friday 30th July Post (Night)...We have crossed 9.00,000 Hits .Thanks to All Vagarians 

BB-3, now a depression at 992 mb, is positioned in SE Bangladesh. Likely to track W/NW and weaken. Should weaken to 1000 mb by Sunday. 


An new embedded Low in the axis is likely to form in Central India by around 3rd/4th August.


As the erstwhile system in Rajasthan merges with the Monsoon axis, the Western end of the axis rapidly moves Northwards. Due to BB-3, the slope Eastwards of the axis is steep, sloping SE.


Friday 31st and Saturday 1st August..Heavy showers are likely in Kashmir, H.P. and Uttarakhand, Western U.P. and in Western Nepal. 

Rains increasing in both Punjabs on 1st August and continue on Sunday 2nd. 
(Gujrat in Pak Punjab gets increasing precipitation from Saturday. Saturday and Sunday showers will measure around 20 mms per day).

Heavy showers in Chattisgarh. Jharkhand and West Bengal.


Rainfall increasing (due to sectoral strengthening of the off shore trough) in South Konkan and Goa and Coastal Karnataka from Friday and effective thru till Monday.


Mumbai City: Friday and Saturday will see occasional showers, almost at regular intervals, and maybe accompanied with thunder. Friday may see around 25 mms and Saturday 20-25 mms. Sunday will see some sunny spells, with lesser frequency of showers, maybe around 15 mms.

Pune: Light drizzles in some areas, otherwise partly cloudy. 

Southern Punjab Region (Malout) will see a chance of rain on Friday, maybe around the region. Saturday will see more showers, with thunder, around 15 mms in the area. Sunday will be cloudy like Saturday with showers increasing to round 25-30 mms.


Kolkata: Having seen BB-3 weaken, and spread out its rain bands, the rain estimate for Kolkata needs revision. Showers on Friday & Saturday would average around 40-50 mms accumulated for the 2 days, and decreasing on Sunday.


Delhi NCR: Starting Friday, rains would be increasing on Saturday and more on Sunday. Chance of thunder showers on Saturday evening and Sunday, with cloudy skies and regular showers in the NCR.


Nagpur sees welcome rains starting from Sunday. Regular showers, some heavy can commence on Sunday and lead to heavy rains (40-50 mms) on Monday.

While Bangalore sees good chances of a thunder shower on Friday, Saturday, Hyderabad sees not much of rains this weekend.

North Konkan towns (Pen, Roha etc) will get passing showers amounting to 20-25 mms per day on Friday and Saturday, with rain intensity decreasing on Sunday.


Sudden Spurt of Unusual rains in Gujarat ..Bhuj and Ahmedabad Diagrams...See Current weather Page


See BB-3 making Landfall in Post Below..
Posted Thursday Evening:
"Cyclone Komen" has crossed the Southern Coast of Bangladesh Thursday late afternoon.

Moving North currently, it has weakened  


will track N/NW  soon as it encounters the STR.

Kolkata has received 14 mms till 5.30 pm IST .
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Posted Thursday Noon:
IMD has announced BB-3 as a cyclone, due to "Intense low pressure system represented on a synoptic chart by more than four closed isobars at  2 hPa interval."
The cyclone Komen (BB-3), now formed lies 95 kms South West of Chittagong (Bangladesh), and around 300 kms East-South East from Kolkata.

And the Monsoon winds have helped in the formation of strong South quadrant convection and strong winds in the southern quadrant.Estimated core winds at 40 knts (International reading) and estimated core pressure at 989/990 mb.
 

Landfall would be on target, by Thursday (Today) afternoon at the Bangladesh Southern Coast. Heavy rains along Bangladesh and W.Bengal coast as well as Odisha coast, with winds around 40-50 kmph.
 

The initial track is North (briefly) and then track would then be W.NW , and weakening would start as explained last night.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Posted Wednesday Night:

BB-3 a deep depression, lay almost in the same position , South off the coast of Bangladesh. Estimated core winds are 35 knts, and estimated core pressure at 990 mb. Very strong convective bands seen in Souther Quadrant.

Initially now, BB-3 will move North, into Bangladesh. Subsequently, it will move NW, due to interaction with Sub Tropical Ridge. This will start pushing in (comparatively) dry air around the system, and due to land interface, BB-3 will weaken gradually over West Bengal.

Expecting increasing rains in Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha. 

Kolkata will get frequent showers, some prolonged and heavy with gusty winds from Thursday thru Saturday.
Would expect accumulated rainfall amounting to 130-150 mms Thursday -Saturday.

Bhubaneshwar too would get frequent intensity rains, amounting to 80-100 mms from Thursday night thru Saturday.

Last 3 days rain totals after the downpour in Gujarat (compiled by Gaurav Raninga).



See Mumbai Page for Mumbai Water Storage and availability.

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Position as on Wednesday Morning:
BB-3
has been classified as a deep depression, seeing the pressure deficient and estimated 3 minute winds.BB-3, stationary as mentioned, is now having estimated core pressure of 994 mb and estimated core winds of 30 knts. Positioned at 21N and 90.5E.Though International model has informed of formation of Tropical Cyclone, there is no clear cyclonic structure seen. Thick convective cloud bands are visible in South, South West and South East Quadrants (due to warm moist air from Bay SST of 31c).


 Mumbai received 32 mms at Scruz and 21 mms at Colaba in last 24 hrs ended Wednesday morning.

Badlapur, Dadar and Borivali are private readings from Abhijit, Salil and Tejas.

 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mumbai received 28 mms (Scruz ) and 23 mms (Colaba) on Monday and 27 mms (Scruz)  and 19 mms (Colaba) on Tuesday.Averaging around the 20-25 mms estimated. 
Wednesday and Thursday will be similar, partly sunny and with some passing showers, may bring around 20-25 mms  per day.

As on Tuesday Night, The depression in Rajasthan was at the International Border, near SE Rajasthan and at 995 mb strength. The isobar bands were spiralled closely, and hence created very strong gusty winds in South Rajasthan, Gujarat and North Konkan.
System will weaken in the next 12-18 hrs from this posting, and a decrease in rains in Rajasthan, Saurashtra and Gujarat from Wednesday. Rains decreasing considerably in Sindh. (As mentioned earlier).

Colossal Rain Amounts till Tuesday morning in cms:

WEST RAJASTHAN:In cms
SANCHORE 24,RANIWADA SR 19,JALORE 18,BAGODA SR 18, JASWANTPURA 16,

EAST RAJASTHAN: In cms
MOUNT ABU 33,ABU ROAD SR 13,REODAR SR 12,VEJA SR 10

GUJARAT In mms:
DHANERA 435,WAV 416
DEESA 303,  BHABHAR 350, ,DANTIWADA 327,RADHANPUR 324, DEODAR 250
PALANPUR 218, UMERPADA 207, PATAN 206,SANTALPUR 199, Morbi 192,Tankara 184, SIDDHPUR 180, UNJHA 180,
VADGAM 180, Bodeli 171, MAHESANA 159, BECHARAJI 157,VAPI 114.
AMIRGADH 150, ,DANGS (AHWA) 142,GANDHINAGAR 105,QUANT 140,VANSDA 136.

KUTCH:In mms
NAKHATRANA 314,BHUJ 252,ANJAR 23,RAPAR 233,
KANDLA AIRPORT 190, KANDLA NEW 170,BHACHAU 146,GANDHIDHAM 142, Lakhpat 123.

In Kutch, Bhuj saw another 127 mms and Mandvi received 59 mms, and Naliya 36 mms in 9 hrs from 8.30 am Tuesday...
and Ahmedabad saw another 54 mms on Tuesday.
Bhuj now has a seasonal total rainfall of 520 mms (All in last 2 days)...against a annual normal of 360 mms !Nakhatrana, with a total of 433 mms, has crossed its normal annual rainfall of 390 mms.

Bharuch total rain as of today is 353 mms.
In Saurashtra the leaders , Bagasra, with a total of 893 mms (134% of Normal annual) and Gondal with an initial lead, ahead in total with 880 mms (140% of the annual)...

The Bay System, BB-3, remains stationary, and shows clear cut bands in the South as it strengthens. As expected, it will start its track from Thursday30th. After an impatient wait, I do not see much scope from BB-3.

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Monday Evening: Depression in Rajasthan has moved West, and lies on the International Border west of Jaisalmer...
On Monday, (from 8.30 am - 5.30 pm), Gandhinagar got 68 mms.

Today's (Monday) Rain:Mumbai Colaba received 14 mms and Santa Cruz 26 mms in 12 hrs fro 8.30 am Monday.
Bhuj received 108 mms in the same 12 hrs, ( taking the 36 hrs total to 180 mms in this desert town)..Ahmedabad 39 mms, Surat 14 mms.

Huge amounts of rainfall recorded in Rajasthan and Gujarat from the system...in cms...last 24 hrs ended 8.30 am IST Monday:
MOUNT ABU 45 (445 mms)
ABU ROAD SR 24,REODAR SR 21,ARTHUNA 19,SIROHI 15
GALIAKOT SR 12,DANPUR 11,BIJOLIYA SR 11,NAYANAGAR/BEAWAR 11,VEJA SR 11,BHAINSROADGARH SR 11

WEST RAJASTHAN: In CMS
GUDAMALANI SR 33,RANIWADA SR 32,JASWANTPURA 29,BHINMAL 22,BAGODA SR 18,BALI 17,CHOTAN 17,SINDERI SR 15
SANCHORE 15,DORIMANNA SR 13,DESURI 13,SUMERPUR SR 12,ERINPURA/JAWAI DAM 12,SAYLA SR 11

GUJARAT REGION:in cms
DADIAPADA_ARG 19,DHANERA 19,VAPI 18
MANSA 17,DAHEGAM 16,VIJAPUR 16,KANKREJ 16,VALIA 15,SIDDHPUR 15,SILVASSA 15,DANTIWADA 14
MANGROL 14,DANTA 14,VADGAM 13,HIMATANAGAR 13,PATAN 13,UNJHA 13,DHARAMPUR 13
AMIRGADH 13,GODHRA 13,PALANPUR 13,KAPRADA 12,MAHESANA 12,DANGS (AHWA) 12,KAMREJ 12,DEODAR 12

SAURASHTRA:In cms

JUNAGADH 19,JODIA 17,DASADA 15,BHESAN 14,JUNAGARH_AWS 13,MORBI 12,VANTHALI 12,VISAVADAR 12

Pakistan:
Karachi rains: Gulshan-e-Hadid 52, University Road 15, Faisal Base 20, Airport 14, Landhi 08, North Karachi 04, Saddar 03, Masror Base 02

BB-3 remains "in waiting" and as explained may start getting active after the other system in Western India starts weakening...Till then, BB-3 may stregthen in place.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rainfall Prominent amounts as on 24 hrs ended Monday 27th Morning:
Gujarat:
Valsad 99.0 mms, Deesa 98 mms, Gandhinagar 85.0 mms, Amreli 77.6 mms, Ahmedabad 72.3 mms, Bhuj 69.7 mms, Idar 59.4 mms,Vadodra 56.2 mms, Porbandar 55.6 mms, Surat 49.7 mms, Bhavnagar 39.1 mms, Rajkot 29.5 mms,
Sindh:
Sukkur 64.0 mms,Thatta 56.0 mms, Chorr 47.0 mms, Padidan 43.1 mms, Rohri 38.0 mmsHyderabad 28.9 mms, Dadu 26 mms, Nawabshah  24.9 mms, Karachi AP 14.4 mms, Badin 13.0 mms,


Weather on Sunday Evening:

1.The Low in Central India has deepened, and now a Well marked Low in East Rajasthan near Tonk. Likely to become a Depression and move West.
Very heavy rains likely in North Gujarat, parts of Kutch and adjoining South East Sindh. Can persist for 2 days Monday to Tuesday Night. Intensity decreasing in these regions from Tuesday Night as system weakens and dissolves.
Monday and Tuesday: Moderate rains likely in Saurashtra Region and East Gujarat Coast.

Mumbai: Monday and Tuesday see occasional showers. Rain amount will be around 20-25 mms/day.
Ahmadabad: Rains very frequent on Monday, decreasing on Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday accumulated rains around 100 mms.
Surat: Intermittent rain on Monday and decrease on Tuesday. Cumulative amount for 2 days around 70 mms.

Good heavy thunder showers, some very heavy, are likely in the Sindh regions of  Karachi, Hyderabad, Mirpur Khas and Sanghar. Rains will continue till Tuesday Night at least.
Around 70-75 mms on Monday and around 100 mms on Tuesday in regions of  Hyderabad, Mirpur Khas and Sanghar.
Heavy thunder rains in Sanghar region of Sindh on Monday. Tuesday also rains will continue, but a bit less.
Sukkar and Larkana gets moderate rains on Monday and Tuesday.

Karachi: Expecting very good showers for Karachi on Monday and Tuesday. Frequent rains on Monday should measure around 20 mms (avg), and again another 12-15 mms on Tuesday.


2. BB-3 is also strengthening fast, and having become a depression, is currently South of the Bangladesh Delta Region.

BB-3 now "in waiting",  will take course of track and strength seeing and depending on the behaviour of the other system in Western Sub Continent.
So, for the time being, as it waits for the other system to "shuttle out" , it will remain in the current position, and may just "shuffle around a bit" around the shores off Bengal. And of course, being a Bay system, will go on deepening.
Seeing the Western Depression, if it weakens around 29th, BB-3  may then start moving from the 30th towards the coast.

So, next few days, heavy rains along the Bangladesh, West Bengal and Northern Odisha coast. 

Chances of the usual Thunder showers in Kolkata..with increasing intensity, slightly, on Tuesday. Can expect around 25-30 mms on Monday and more on Tuesday. Further rainfall intensity will depend on BB-3, which in all likelihood, gears up on 29th/30th.

Delhi and North...all set up for hot days and almost dry from Monday..

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(Posted Sunday 6.30 pm IST) Sunday 9 hrs rain from 8.30 am onwards:
Kota 55 mms, Barmer 44 mms, Ahmadabad 36 mms, Jaisalmer 23 mms, Kolkata DumDum 20 mms, Surat 18 mms, Rajkot 13 mms.


Heavy Rainfall in the "Yellow" Region marked. Rain amounts in cms as on Sunday Morning:

WEST MADHYA PRADESH: in cms
Sarangpur 21, Ratlam (AWS) 20, Sailana 19, Biaora 17, Khilchipur 16, Lateri 15
Nalkheda 13, Rajgarh 12, Shujalpur 11, Susner 10, Narsingarh 9, Shajapur (AWS) 9

EAST RAJASTHAN: in cms
Aklera 24, Manohar Thana 22, Ramganjmandi 15, Jhalarapatan 14, Chipabarod 13, Jhalawar 12, Dug 11, Chabra 11
Asnawar 11, Bakani 9, Khanpur 8, Pachpahar 8, Danpur 8

GUJARAT REGION: in cms
Dharampur 18, Dadiapada (ARG) 18, Umerpada 17, Vyara 16, Valod 15, Songadh 14, Mahudha 14, Mahuva 13, Dabhoi 13
Pardi 11, Anand 11, Petlad 11, Mandvi 10, Sagbara 10, Ukai 10, Uchchhal 10
Matar 9, Mangrol 9, Dangs (Ahwa) 9
Umreth 9, Quant 9, Vansda 9, Bhabhar 8
Navsari 8, Kathalal 8, Dediapada 7, Nizer 7, Kaprada 7, Ankleshwer 7, 

Other Rainfall Regions with Heavy Rains.
In Kutch, Anjar got 16 cms.

Goa in cms
Dabolim N.A.S.- Navy 20, Marmugao 19, Ponda 17, Panjim 17 (Check Vagaries Goa for more)



Saturday, July 25, 2015

Synopsis of Saturday Night Weather:

1. Since the Central India UAC has formed a day in advance, and the UAC has further developed into a Low, the "Yellow" regions marked for Sunday also got advanced. The region got heavy rains in cms:  Ratlam­ 17;  Ujjain & Dhar­ 8 each; Indore, Bhopal & Shajapur ­5 each; Guna 3.


Likely to deepen and move towards West. Sunday: Very heavy rains in excess of 100 mms likely in West M.P, adjoining East Rajasthan and North Gujarat. Heavy rains in Rest of Gujarat region. 


Sunday: Ahmdabad gets heavy rains on Sunday, around >50 mms, Ujjain 45-50 mms. Bharuch will be cloudy with intermittent rains.


and Moderate rains in rest of Gujarat and North Konkan.

Sunday Mumbai City: Cloudy with frequent showers..some heavy. Rains around 35-40 mms (Avg)

2. BB-3 has also formed in the North Bay. Likely to remain Stationary and concentrate more to next stage. Sunday: Heavy rains likely in Coastal West Bengal and Coastal Bangladesh. Sunday:Kolkata, getting the usual showers, with rain around 30-40 mms.


3.For Sindh: We are watching this Low , and to see how much it can deepen. Factors like South Winds and Seasonal Low play a part in it. Shall give my estimate for Sindh in the Sunday post.

Meanwhile, heavy rains in Sindh, and intensity will be clear by Sunday..and will occur after Tuesday, if it is going to come.

Sunday Night, another report will be put up.


Thursday, July 23, 2015

Rainfall recorded as on Saturday 25th Morning  (Last 24 hrs...Friday day and Night).

Mumbai Santacruz 29 mms and Colaba 34 mms (Avg 32 mms).
Panjim Goa 166 mms.


Kolkata Alipore 28 mms and DumDum 37 mms...Rains on Friday as the Low formation takes shape.


Posted Friday Night:

Goa lashed by heavy rains as 126 mms get accumulated in 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm IST....
Mumbai Colaba measures 32 mms and Santa Cruz 26 mms in the same 12 hrs on Friday.
Alibag a bit South of Mumbai recorded 8 mms.

Some cities in Kutch got between 10-20 mms of rain on Friday. Ahmadabad after receiving around 10 mms of rain last 2 days, see no rain on Friday. The city has received 50% of its seasonal rains till today...160 mms received .

A UAC forms from 850 hpa level upto 500 hpa level in the region of North M.P. on Friday. ..Estimated in the Sunday Forecast Chart. 
The Monsoon axis runs from West Rajasthan thru North M.P. and into North Bengal thru Northern Bangladesh and Eastwards into Northern Myanmar. 
As the UAC has formed, the Axis runs in the same line upto the 700 hpa level, a parallel upper level axis.

BB-3 will also form as shown..in the North Bay.
Rainfall shown in Sunday Chart around the UAC can get preponed to Saturday (around the UAC.).

Good rainfall in Sindh as on Friday Morning...Karachi Areas: Landhi 49, Faisal Base 33, Saddar 30, MOS 28, Jinnah Terminal 24, Model Observatory 18, Gulshan-E-Hadid 15, North Karachi 12, Masroor Base, Nazimabad 11.

Diplo 46, Shaheed Benzirbad 25, Paddidan, Sanghar 23, Mithi 18, Chacro 7 and Larkana 6 mms.

Rainfall reduces in the Sindh region on Saturday and Sunday. Some parts of South Eastern Sindh regions will get light rains.

Sindh Rainfall can increase from Monday...for which a fresh forecast will be put up on Sunday.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted Thursday Night:
At last ! Karachi drenched with a strong Thunder shower on Thursday 23rd evening...Lightning and Thunder report Vagarians from there...28 mms between 5 pm and 8 pm Local time..Another spell possible again late night. Friday may see light rainfall in the day, and decrease in intensity thereafter
Nawabshah also gets 21 mms in the same period on Friday.
.
Friday will again see some thunder showers in South coastal and mostly all towns of SE Sindh. 

Overall Outlook:
Friday 24th & Saturday 25th...Along the axis, Regions of Northern parts of M.P, Northern Rajasthan and NW India get moderate showers. 



Spurt in rainfall in Delhi NCR from Friday.
The Kolkata wet spell is on Friday and Saturday...Good rains on Saturday.

Sunday 26th.. A low can form in the Northern Bay, BB-3. This, and a UAC in Central India can bring the Monsoon axis a it more Southwards. Ver heavy Rains in around the 2 systems.



Mumbai sees a slight let up in rains on Friday and Saturday...with bright periods. There will of course be some showers amounting to around 20 mms.
Slight increase in rains again possible on Sunday with intermittent rain showers.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

 Posted Thursday Morning:
In Mah. Akola notched 55 mms.
Mumbai Scruz 46 mms. and Colaba 49 mms. (Avg: 48 mms.)

Mumbai:
Thursday will be partly cloudy with showers post noon. A few heavy in some parts.Decrease from Friday.


Some cities in Gujarat received very heavy rains in 24 hrs ended Thursday Morning:
Veraval 112 mms, Dwarka (Vagaries' projected city for heavy rains) 98 mms, Rajkot 74 mms, Valsad 72 mms, Naliya (Kutch ) 18 mms,Kandla 16 mms, Surat and Ahmadabad 10 mms.

Thursday: Rains decrease in Gujarat. Continue at moderate rate in most parts of coastal Sindh and South-East Sindh.
Moderate rains all over in M.P. and few places heavy.
 


---------------------------------------------------------------------


Posted Wednesday Night:
Wednesday Rains




Gujarat Rainfall from 8.30 am-5.30 pm Wednesday:

Ahmadabad 9.8 mms, Valsad 22 mms, Surat 11 mms, Veraval 84 mms, Rajkot 71 mms (Between 5.30 pm -8.30 pm )

Rainfall decreasing in Gujarat on Thursday (See forecast in Tuesday Evening Post)

Mumbai Details:

Season's Rainfall:
Mumbai Colaba 946 mms  Santacruz 1251mms

Wednesday Rains till 8.30 pm :Colaba 48 mms, Santacruz 40 mms.


Mumbai City: Wednesday 22nd and Thursday 23rd will see frequent ( on/off) showers  at regular intervals, a few of them heavy. Around 35-40 mms/day. Friday 24th will see a decrease in intensity, with bright intervals.


Mumbai Lakes:

Total rainfall from 1st June in Lakes till 22nd July: 
Bhatsa 943 mms, Vaitarna 888 mms, Modaksagar 849 mms, Tansa 838 mms, Vihar 1261 mms, Tulsi  1441 mms, middle Vaitarna  867 mms.

Total storage available 739 Mcum..out of full capacity of 1778  Mcum... Lakes filled at 
42%....Leaving 33% for leakages, Evaporation, etc, we have 492 Mcum left. And considering supply at 3.75 Mcum /day, Mumbai has 131 days of water storage on 22nd July.

Good overnight rains ( mms) in Sindh on Tuesday night: Diplo 72 Chhor 47, Mithi 42, Chahro 32, Islamkot, Nagarparkar 29, Thiali 15, Badin 08, Karachi A/P 02,

Mirpurkhas 01.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

As on Wednesday 8.30 am IST (24 hrs), Mumbai SantaCruz recorded 49 mms and Colaba 46 mms. Average 47.5 mms. 
Frequent on /off showers continue in Mumbai City on Wednesday, with SantaCruz getting 12 mms in 3 hrs after 8.30 am Wednesday.
 

Surat got 22 mms and Ahmadabad 12 mms in the same period of 24 hrs ended 8.30 am IST. Surat received 10 mms in 3 hrs on Wednesday after 8.30 am.
In Gujarat, Idar records 71 mms, Mahuva 32 mms,Veraval 26 mms, Bhuj and Vadodra 17 mms .

Meanwhile, as expected, the rains shifted to Sindh, and Karachi got the much needed relief and cloudy weather, with rain recorded as 2 mms.Several places in South and SE Sindh got showers.

Forecast for Wed and next 2 days is mentioned below..(Tuesday evening Post).


Posted Tuesday Evening:
Mumbai City: Wednesday 22nd and Thursday 23rd will see frequent showers at regular intervals, a few of them heavy. Around 35-40 mms/day. Friday 24th will see a decrease in intensity, with bright intervals.

Parts of Eastern and Northern Gujarat got the much needed relief as some showers arrived...Daytime rain on Tuesday was highest at Mahuva with 31 mms. Vadodra received 17 mms. Ahmadabad, which has been dry and waiting , got the predicted showers, with 5.7 mms on Tuesday.
Over night, Valsad district got heavy rains...some figures in cms from Valsad and Dadra Haveli: Kaprada (dist Valsad) 17, Madhbun (dist Dadara & Nagar Haveli) 13, Dharampur (dist Valsad) 12, Nanipalson (dist Valsad) 11, Silvassa (dist Dadara & Nagar Haveli) 9, Pardi (dist Valsad) 6, Vapi (dist Valsad) 4.

Mumbai Scruz saw 39 mms, Colaba 13 mms.
Pune had frequent showers on tuesday, recording 13 mms till 5.30 pm IST.
(See more rainfall amounts of Maharashtra in post below)

Wednesday will see moderate rains in Saurashtra,with Western Saurashtra region (Dwarka) getting heavy rains.  Heavy to moderate in Eastern Gujarat. Rains decrease from Thursday in Gujarat.
Next 3 days till Friday (Decreasing from Friday), Surat and Valsad can get frequent showers, some heavy. Rain amounts will be around 30-35 mms for Valsad and 20-25 mms in Surat.

Rains in Coastal and SE Sindh on Wednesday and Thursday. Karachi possibly getting light to medium rains these 2 days with strong west winds.
Thunder showers also likely in Sukkur (Sindh) on Wednesday and Thursday.

Almost no meaningful rains (Less than 5-7 mms) in 
1). Marathwada and Vidharbha till Forecast period (Friday 24th) and 
2). Interior Karnataka, TN and Telengana.

Mumbai City: Wednesday 22nd and Thursday 23rd will see frequent showers at regular intervals, a few of them heavy. Around 35-40 mms/day. Friday 24th will see a decrease in intensity, with bright intervals.
Goa rains increase again from Thursday.

The Monsoon axis starts shifting North again from Wednesday. This will increase rainfall in the Northern plains of U.P, Haryana and Delhi from Thursday 23rd. But, as the axis moves North, very heavy rains expected in Uttarakhand on Thursday and Friday.

Delhi NCR will see rainfall increasing from Thursday for another couple of days.
Even Kolkata, can see an increase in rain amounts after Thursday for a couple of days.

Sudden surge of Rain lashes N.Konkan

Massive Rains in Maharashtra ending 8.30 am on 21.07.2015

Mumbai City:
Santacruz 61mm

Vagaries 38 mms
Colaba 16mm ......(So, Mumbai City Average 38 mms. Predicted for Mumbai City in Vagaries 30-40 mms)
Other (in mms)..
Palghar - 476, Boisar - 347, Tarapur - 323, Titwala - 266, Kharbav - 231
Kone - 231, Safala - 230, Agarwadi - 227, Kudus - 226, Wada - 219
Chinchani - 213, Bhimashankar - 198, Kalyan - 195, Bhiwandi - 195
Angaon - 191, Kanchad - 189, Nadgaon - 187, Padagha - 185
Dehari - 178, Tansa - 176, Manor - 172, Dighashi - 172
Bhavli - 171, Kalamb - 170, Dolkhamb - 167, Sakhar - 167
Goregaon - 164, Igatpuri - 161, Saralgaon - 160, Ghoti - 155
Rajur - 155, Ulhasnagar - 150
Kasa - 150, Saiwan - 149, Mokhada - 148, Ambernath - 143
Balkum - 140, Shahapur - 138, Wasind - 138, Dhamni - 127
Kawdas - 127, Dawadi - 124, Talasari - 124
Jawhar - 123, Virar - 122, Badalapur - 120
Lonawala - 117
MVaitarna - 116, Welunje - 116, Shahpur - 115
Tryambakeshwar - 115, Bhatsa - 115
Walwand - 113, Mulshi - 112, Modaksagar -110
Mumbra - 110, Khodala - 110, Dhasai - 110
Kashele - 110, Khardi - 110, Vaitarna - 108
Dhargaon - 108, Kinhawali - 106, Lonawala - 106, Dahisar - 105
Vikramgad - 105, Harsul - 105, Dingore - 102
Vadivale - 101, Peth - 100, Kude - 100, Murbad - 100




As offshore strengthens in Northern part of west coast, much awaited Heavy Rain are back after 25 days of lull !! Heavy overnight rain lashes Thane & Palghar dist :

Some rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today (21-07-2015) :

Outer Townships of Mumbai (Eastern) Kalyan & Bhiwandi 195
Ulhasnagar 150
Ambernath 143
Shahapur 138
Murbad 99 
Thane 85

North of Mumbai:
Palghar 476 
Virar 122
Dahanu 34
Wada 219
Javhar 123
Vikramgadh 105
Talasari 124
Mokhada 148

Mumbai lakes rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today:

Tansa 176
Middle Vaitarna 116
Bhatsa 115
Modak sagar 110
Vaitarna 108
Tulsi 75
Vihar 53



Boisar in Palghar taluka was 0mm in last 20 days of July !! might be record of continues 20 days remaining zero !!
And today Boisar recorded massive 347mm in 24hrs ending 8.30am today !!

Palghar recorded massive 476mm rainfall ending 8:30am today. And all 450mm+ in just 12hrs that is from 8.30pm to 8.30am period. As was just hardly 10mm till yesterday 8.30pm.

Palghar July total was just 9.3mm in last 20 day & now sudden 476mm in 1 day !




Update from Twitter : Western Railways all Local trains Cancelled Beyond Virar No Sign of mail leaving as well cause of water logging in PALGHAR @TrafflineMUM
Waterlogging in tracks affected @WesternRly train services beyond Virar at Palghar and Boisar stations. #MumbaiRains @TrafflineMUM


Sunday, July 19, 2015

Remember Last Week's Typhoon " Nangka"  ?.some Facts and Superb 3D Satellite Image see International Page

Posted Monday Night:
Low remains Stationary ..was expected to be so for 12 hrs since last posting..but merged in Axis

Rainfall on Monday (Daytime)..




Posted Sunday Evening:

A cold Sunday for Indore, with 98 mms from 8.30 am -5.30 pm IST, and the day's max at 23c....Bhopal saw 29 mms in the same time period.
Some heavy rainfall amounts in cms as on 8.30 am Sunday for West M.P.>.
NARSINGARH 39, UJJAIN-AWS 32, SARANGPUR 31, BADNAGAR 25, DEPALPUR 23, BADNAWAR 19, SHAJAPUR-AWS 17
VIDISHA-AWS 16, BHOPAL-AWS-ARG 15, RAISEN-AWS 14, GAUTAMPURA 13, INDORE-AWS 13, SARDARPUR 12, SEHORE-AWS 12
KUKSHI 11, SHUJALPUR 11, DHAR-AWS 11, BIAORA 11, DEWAS-AWS 10, KHACHROD 9, SONKATCH 9, THANDLA 9,
BUDHNI 9, TARANA 9, ALIRAJPUR-AWS 9, NUSRULGUNJ-ARG 8.

The UAC has now descended as a Low over North M.P. and adjoining U.P. (Not numbering it as BB-3, as it has originated on Land). System is likely to persist in same position for another 12 hrs, before merging with the Axis , somewhere near Guna.

Next 2 days Outlook:
Monday 20th:Heavy rainfall will persist in West M.P. for another 12 hrs. Rains will also occur in South Rajasthan and Eastern Gujarat. North Maharashtra region gets good rainfall. 
Expecting increased activity for Akola and Aurangabad district.

West coast from Surat to Kerala will see enhanced rain actvity. Subdued rains in Odisha. Gangetic Bengal, TN and interior Karnataka.

Tuesday 21st: Rainfall more likely in East Rajasthan and adjioing M.P. and Northern Gujarat.
Subdued in East M.P, Int Karnataka and TN.

Moderate rains spread to Coastal Sindh (Karachi) on 21st/22nd.

Mumbai: Having missed a good chance to see enhanced rains (due to certain adverse factors), I see no reason why Mumbai cannot get increased rainfall from Monday...city should get at least 30-40 mms on Monday and Tuesday, with thunder.

Pune: Monday and Tuesday has chances of moderate showers in parts of city. Around 7-10 mms possible in some areas.

Goa will continue to get Showers and monsoon weather with around 30 mms/day.
Surat:Rainfall increasing form Monday (maybe evening)...and good rains thru Tuesday. Would expect around 50-55 mms cumulative Monday and Tuesday.

Ahmadabad: Breaking a dry spell, Chances of thunder showers on Monday and Tuesday. Expecting around 20 mms/day.

Not much chances of rains increasing in Hyderabad (India) and Bangalore next 2/3 days.

Karachi and Hyderabad (Sindh) will get dry weather till Tuesday, but can expect a shower in the vicinity or around on Tuesday night or Wednesday. Around 5 mms.



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Posted Sunday Morning:
The UAC over Jhansi has moved West as shown in Super Imposed Image...and the Green Line shows the Upper Air Axis...
UAC will Track West/South West, and push the Cloud Quadrant likewise.


Ujjain received a massive 319 mms,  Bhopal 149 mms..Indore saw 129 mms,..More amounts as they come in

Friday, July 17, 2015

Posted Saturday Night
In the last 6-9 hrs, the UAC ( At 850 hpa) in the axis has moved West..and was near Jhansi as on 8.30 pm IST Saturday...yes, Westwards !
Heavy rainfall is seen in the West, SW and south quadrants of the system.  System may move South/West and push the rain patch along with.

Several stations in M.P, Punjab, Delhi and parts of Eastern Vidharbh received very heavy to moderate rains on Saturday..
Major Rainfall in the 9 hrs ended 5.30 pm IST Saturday in cms... 
M.P: Shajapur­14, Bhopal­6 ( 75 mms till 8.30 pm), Ujjain­4,Shivpuri 3, Pachmari 3, Guna 3, Nowgong 2, Indore 2, Ajmer 1 Ratlam 1
Delhi (PLM) 3
Rajasthan: Jaipur5, Chittorgarh 4
Punjab:Ludhiana 3, Amritsar, Patiala,  

Maharashtra: Bhramhapuri 2, Mahabaleshwar­2 each ,


As on Saturday Afternoon, the UAC mentioned below in point 1(b)..has descended to 850 hpa level, and is near Chutrakoot (U.P). Will descend to sea level as a Low by Sunday morning.


To All Vagarians....



Posted on Friday 17th Night:

City Rain Estimate for Saturday and Sunday:
Mumbai: Saturday  will be cloudy, with passing showers (around 15 mms). Some showers can be heavy. Rainfall and windy conditions increasing by Sunday, around 30 mms or more.
Pune: Light drizzles in some parts or vicinity...days around 29c.

Kolkata: Rain and Thunder showers in many parts. 

Surat: Saturday /Sunday:Light rains upto 2-4 mms in the vicinity of Surat. Rains increasing from Monday.

Rain Estimate for Saturday and Sunday:

Very heavy rains likely in North Punjab ( > 50-70 mms/day in some places), and H.P. Heavy rains will occur in Delhi NCR (Average 20-25 mms/day), North and East M.P. and adjoining North Chattisgarh, 
Many parts of Odisha will get heavy rains. and moderate rains in adjoining Vidharb (Nagpur)
Scattered light rains in some pockets of North Gujarat and Saurashtra. Light showers also likely in many places of Interior Maharashtra.
Very heavy rains in Pak Punjab ( Eastern regions) and rest of Punjab get heavy showers. Light to moderate rains in Upper Sindh also possible.

Precipitation increases along the West coast. Heavy rains in South Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka.Strong winds of around 30-35 kmph along coast.

Weather Situation for the weekend, 18th and 19th July:
1. Monsoon axis runs along Pak Punjab  (west) and through Haryana, Southern U.P. and then the Eastern end forks into 2 parts...
a),. Running through the Northern Bengal/Sikkim thru into the NE States...and 
b). Another trough sloping SE from Eastern U.P. and into NE Madhya Pradesh/ North Chattisgarh and into Bay thru Odisha. An UAC lies embedded in this trough...and will descend to sea level as a Low in the same place  around the East M.P./Chattisgarh region. 
Low will track along the axis NW nearing Delhi by around 21st. 

2. As West winds rush in, the Off shore trough strengthens, and strong winds of up to 30-35 kmph expected along the West coast. 


Wednesday, July 15, 2015

 A few heavy Welcome showers lashed Central Mumbai in the early hours of Friday. A good "restart" to the faded Monsoon...But, not upto Mumbai expectations and norms..as SantaCruz measured a measly 4.6 mms while Vagaries measured 9 mms. Moderate showers in Navi Mumbai also.
 

Nearby Alibag ( 45 kms South of Mumbai) saw 20 mms. 

Mahableshwar recorded 52 mms. Kolhapur recorded 5 mms ...All till 8.30 am IST Friday.
 

Would expect Mumbai to get around 15 -20 mms on Friday and Saturday. Sunday may get around 30 mms.
Expecting increasing intensity in South Konkan and Goa ...to around 35-45 mms per day from Friday evening.


Another good showery day for Kolkata on Saturday. A brief respite on Saturday, but more rains Sunday.
More in write up tonite...


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Mumbai's long dry wait may be over...Rainfall may "pick up" strength in Mumbai from Thursday Night...gradually increasing in intensity on Friday, with a wet week end...

1 July to 15 July 2015:
North Konkan has received just 6% of normal rainfall in first half of July . A whopping 94% deficit !!
South Konkan has received just 23% of normal rainfall in first half of July ... 73% deficit !!

Overall Konkan division is in 86% deficit for first half of July.. 
Compiled by Abhijit Modak

Mumbai daily rainfall from 15th June -15th July..

Rainfall expected to increase in Konkan after 18th July....Write up coming on this

Monday, July 13, 2015

 Point Nos 2,3 and 4 ( Below) "Implemented"

 See Literal Withdrawal of rains as mentioned in Point 1.
 http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/sector-ir.jpg

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Posted Monday 13th July Night: See Monsoon Performance and City forecast Below the Article

1.The Monsoon Axis currently in the North at the Himalayan foothills, remains in the Northern most position till Saturday 18th (at least).
Precipitation literally withdraws from NW India and Central and Western India next 2 days.
From 16th July, Due to interaction of a Eastward moving upper air WD with the axis, enhanced rainfall is expected in the  Hill states of Kashmir and H.P. and Utterakhand, Punjab regions of India and Pakistan, Haryana , Delhi and West U.P.Rains will last for a couple of days in the North.

2. West coast off shore trough becomes active from 15th for 2 days South of Goa.( Coastal Karnataka and Kerala).
Rainfall remains subdued in Konkan, Interior Maharashtra, Interior Karnataka , Telengana and Southern Peninsula till Saturday.

3. The Eastern States of Odisha, W.Bengal and A.P. get some showers as the off shore trough harbours embedded UAC during 15th/16th.No significant numbered system .

4. Very Heavy rains in Nepal and Sikkim Tuesday 14th and Wednesday 15th.

After all this rain in the North, thanks to BB-2, where do we stand now and what is the All India Rainafll Position ?

Seasonal Rainfall (in mm) from 1 June to 13 July, 2015
Region                                     Actual                    Normal                      % Departure from Long Period Average
All India                                    270.9                     280.0                                         -3%

East & Northeast India              503.4                     543.2                                        -7%
Northwest India                        186.3                     148.2                                         26%
Central India                             268.9                     293.7                                         -8%
South Peninsula                       218.1                     248.9                                        -12%


Rainfall Performance Map Sub Division Wise


 and now District Wise for those Interested


Central India:

Mumbai will get partly sunny weather with few passing showers on Tuesday, Wednesday and more cloudy on Thursday.But the dry wait may end to some extent as Possibility of rainfall increasing on Friday. Friday and weekend forecast will be up onThursday.
Pune, the dry wait continues...will be seeing almost dry and warm conditions. will be partly sunny with light drizzles in some areas.

Kolkata: After 59 mms (DumDum) on Monday (12 hrs till 8.30 pm IST), Light rains on Tuesday. Taking full advantage of the UAC in the Eastern trough, Gets the rainy spell again, as Slight increase to around 10-15 mms on Wednesday and more on Thursday to around 30 mms.

Delhi NCR: Capital needs time to recover from recent rains. So, almost dry and again hot to 36c on Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday. Umbrellas out again on Friday !

Bhubaneshwar: The wait extends for some more days, till Thursday. But wait will be hot Tuesday, Wednesday as day rises to 38c. Thursday thru Saturday sees increased rainfall.



Posted Monday 15th January: Very Unusual Weather for January in the Sub Continent.... North-East Monsoon has Ceased and is withdrawn fro...