Thursday, March 30, 2017

We at Vagaries have been complaining, explaining and even informing the Met Dept about faulty readings at Bhira (Mah) since the last 2/3 years. Yes, the readings are doubtful since then ! We have informed the Dept in February this year, and requested them to immediately depute someone there to check the authenticity of the Bhira readings.
I think, finally, some action is being taken .




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EYE OPENING NUMBERS ON SPACE DEBRIS

Orbital debris, otherwise known as “space junk”, is a major concern. This massive cloud that orbits the Earth is the result of the many satellites, platforms and spent launchers that have been sent into space over the years. And as time went on, collisions between these objects (as well as disintegrations and erosion) has created even more in the way of debris.

According to ESOC, about 5250 launches have taken place since the beginning of the space age, which officially kicked off on October 4th, 1957, with the launch of the the Soviet Sputnik 1 satellite. Of the many missions that have been launched since then, some 23,000 are still in orbit, while only 1200 are still operational.

According to various statistical models, there is an estimated 166 million objects in orbit that range in size from 1 mm to 1 cm in diameter. There is also another 750,000 objects that range from being 1cm to 10 cm in diameter, and about 29,000 objects that exceed 10 cm in diameter. The ESA and other space agencies around the world are responsible for tracking about 42,000 of the larger ones.
All told, the total mass of all the objects orbiting the Earth is estimated at 7500 metric tons (~8267 US tons). And between all this debris, a little over 290 break-ups, explosions and collisions events have taken place, resulting in the fragmentation of objects and the creation of many smaller pieces of debris. Each and every one of these is considered a serious threat due to the relative orbital velocities they have.

Monday, March 27, 2017

Heatwave Conditions Grips in West & Central India



On this auspicious occasion of Gudi Padwa, May you be endowed with happiness, prosperity and success. Happy Gudi Padwa & Best wishes for the New Year to all Vagarians  !


With widespread High pressure area sitting stationery over Saurashtra on 500 hPa wind level chart as we can see in above image so under it's influence hot N/NW breeze prevailing on surface level over West & Central India and thus witnessing first heat wave spell of year 2017 !


Today's top 20 hottest centers of India below dated (27-03-2017) :

1.Barmer (Raj) 44.4 °C
2.Deesa (GJ) 43.4 °C
3.Surendranagar (GJ) 43.3 °C
4.Gandhinagar (Guj) 43.2 °C
5.Akola (MH) 43.0 °C
6.Amreli (GJ) 43.0 °C
7.Chandrapur (MH) 43.0 °C
8.Ahmadabad (GJ) 42.8 °C
9.Baroda Aerodrome (GJ) 42.7 °C
10.Khargone (MP) 42.6 °C
11.Jaisalmer (RJ) 42.3 °C
12.Malegaon (MH) 42.2 °C
13.Bhuj (GJ) 42.0 °C
14.Jalgaon (MH) 42.0 °C
15.Nanded (MH) 42.0 °C
16.Anantapur (AP) 42.0 °C
17.Rajkot (GJ) 41.9 °C
18.Parbhani (MH) 41.8 °C
19.Adilabad (Tel) 41.6 °C
20.Ratlam (MP) 41.6 °C

Overall 71 places have recorded above 40°C temp today.



Aurangabad 40.5°C
Nashik 40.3°C
(Both missed all time highest max temp record of March month by 0.2°C but hottest in last 10 years !)

Pune (AP) 41°C 
Pune 39.7°C (which is hottest temp for March month in last 10 years).



As HPA is near of N.Konkan so Interior Konkan is also witnessing heat wave conditions from past 3 days !!

Official IMD Mumbai max temp reading was Santacruz 38.4°C & Colaba 33.4°C for today on 27 March 2017.


We Vagarains are monitoring temperature privately(so +-1c error may be applicable)  

Thane to Badlapur/Karjat belt is recording 40C or above mark temp for 3rd consecutive day today !! And today recorded highest max temp in Thane-Karjat belt since we are tracking temp privately as part of self recording as an weather enthusiast !!

Vagarian Puneet reports from Dombivli that never seen such severe and intense long lasting heat in my entire life. Today is one of the remarkable day for Interior Konkan , Dombivli recorded max temp of 43.3°C with 27% humidity. #ExtremeWeather




Vagarian Ameya Swar reported Thane max as 43.1°C today.



Myself from Badlapur reporting that for the first time my device has clocked 42+ since I tracking temps from 2012 🔥😱 Record breaking Heatwave. #Summer2017 #sunburning#heatwave


Badlapur max temp 42.8°C with 11% humidity today. 

Vagarian Tejas Baxi reported Borivali max 38.8°C today.

Vagarian Salil Kawli reported Dadar max 34.1°C today.


Sunday, March 19, 2017

Posted Sunday Night (19th):

> Western Disturbance will precipitate rains and snow (in the upper reaches) of Kashmir and H.P. on 21st Tuesday and 22nd Wednesday. 
Rains will also effect Northern and Western Pakistan these days.

> Gujarat expected to get hotter from Monday into the week:
Cities in Saurashtra will reach 38c by Tuesday.
 Ahmadabad: Sunday was at 35c. Days are expected to get hotter, with maximum touching 40c by Tuesday and  Wednesday
 Surat and Bharuch expected to heat up next week reaching 38/39c by Tuesday/Wednesday.

> Mumbai: Max temperature on Sunday was at 34c ( Scruz). Days expected to get slightly hotter by 2/3c on Monday,Tuesday and Wednesday.
 Pune which was 35c on Sunday, expected to rise to 37c by Tuesday and 38c on Thursday.

> Cities in Vidharbh expected to be around 38/39c from Monday thru Wednesday.

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

 POLAR STRATOSPHERIC CLOUDS: Best Ever ?

Around the Arctic Circle, observers are reporting an outbreak of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). "The sky was filled with their brilliant colors from sunrise to sunset," says Mia Stålnacke, who sends this picture from Kiruna, Sweden:

These clouds are newsworthy because normally the stratosphere has no clouds at all. Home to the ozone layer, the stratosphere is arid and almost always transparent. Yet, Stålnacke says, "we've been seeing stratospheric clouds very often this winter and last." 

According to multiple longtime residents of the area, the Feb 13th display was exceptional. 
"I've been living here all my life (33 years)," says Stålnacke. "I definitely feel that these clouds are appearing more often then they used to. I remember seeing them a few times/year since I was a kid, but these last couple of years we've had them much more often--sometimes for almost a week straight. Others seem to feel the same way; I see local groups on Facebook flooded with photos of PSCs and comments on how often they're appearing now."

"The clouds were all over Finland, too," says Matti Helin who took this picture on Feb. 13th:


What's going on up there?
PSCs are a sign of very cold temperatures in the stratosphere.  The clouds are made of ice. Indeed, that is the source of their remarkable color: High-altitude sunlight shining through tiny ice particles ~10µm across produce a bright iridescent glow.  For ice crystals to form in the very dry stratosphere, temperatures must drop to around -85º C.
Courtesy Spaceweather.com

See Space News Page for the Latest Sun Spot Situation/Count

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Posted Sunday 12th Night:
Rising Summer temps pushed back by a week in Vidharbh:

1. On Wednesday 15th and Thursday 16th showers expected in all regions of Vidharbh (Akola/Nagpur), parts of adjoining Marathwada (Light rain in Aurangabad), Northern Telengana (Hyderabad) and adjoining Chattisgarh (Light rain in Raipur). Rain from confluence of air from South and stronger NE winds.

2. Mumbai: Temperature on Sunday was 31c and 17c. From Monday, Mumbai will see a rise in temperatures by 2/3c to 33/34c in the day and around 20c at night.
Pune, which saw 31c and 10c on Sunday, sees a rise of 2/3c from Monday.

New Delhi: Dry weather next week. The week will begin with temps around 27/28c in the day. Rising after a couple of days.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER NORTH AND WEST INDIA .. 12 MAR 2017

Below normal temps by 5 to 10 c over North and west India on Holi Day .
South India(TN /Kerala) is very warm .

Gulmarg (JK) @ -12 c , Keylong (HP)@ -9 c , Udaipur /Mount Abu (Raj) @ 6 c ,Ujjain (MP) @ 8 c

 1 .(Click and enlarge the map below)

2.Weather over Mumbai was dry and fine today .Humidity over the suburbs ranged between 10% to 25 % during noon.
The clear skies overlooking the Arabian sea (near Mumbai SCZ)

3.Frost was reported from Mahabaleshwar (Maharashtra) today morning
Frost on the windshield of a car near Venna lake (Pic courtesy :Shiraz Satarawalla)


Happy Holi to all Vagarians
Image result for  holi cartoons

Friday, March 10, 2017

FINE WEATHER OVER MUMBAI .. 10 MAR 2017..

As we expected,Mumbai was partly cloudy today..Fine conditions prevailed with the maximum temps at 30 c , cool breeze , comfortable humidity (50 to 55 % ) .
  • The clouds overlooking the Arabian sea ( near Mumbai SCZ )

  • The puffy cumulus clouds on the canvas of blue sky over the metropolis ( near Mumbai SCZ )

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Max temp in celcius at some cities..

Chennai @ 35.5 (humid), Bengaluru @ 33.5 , Hyderabad @ 36 , Rajkot @ 33 , Kolkata@ 32 , Delhi @ 26  , Pune @ 29 , Goa (Pedne) @ 36


Tuesday, March 07, 2017

Posted 9th March Night:
H.P.: Biting cold wave conditions returned to Himachal Pradesh Wednesday as hilly areas received fresh snowfall and lower reaches saw rainfall. 

The tourist resorts of Manali, Kufri, Narkanda and Sangla received snowfall while hilly areas of Chamba district including Bharmaur and Pangi experienced intermittent rains. 

The Rohtang Pass and its adjoining areas are experiencing intermittent snowfall. 

Kothi recorded 60 cm of snow, Udaipur 17 cm, Keylong and Kalpa 14 cm, Manali 6 cm and Khadrala, Kufri and Fagu 4 cm each. 

Manali received 50 mm rainfall, the highest in the region. Bhuntar recorded 24 mm rainfall, Seobagh 23 mm, Dalhousie 19 mm, Bajaura 18 mm, Tissa and Pachhad 15 m each, Udaipur 11 mm and Jubbal 10 mm, it said. 

Minimum temperatures dropped marginally with Keylong and Kalpa recording -5.6c and -1.2c respectively, the MeT said. 

Manali recorded Max 4.8c and Min -0.6c, Shimla 4.4c and Bhuntar 6.5c. 


Pic from Manali Sent by Vagarian Shitij

Kashmir: The high altitude areas of the Valley including the famous ski resort of Gulmarg, Pahalgam and Sonarmag experienced fresh snowfall, while Srinagar and other plains were lashed by intermittent rains under the influence of Western Disturbance. 
Gulmarg (Max -1c and min -4c) and Sonamarg hill resorts experienced over one feet of fresh snowfall, while Pahalgam hill resort recorded seven cm of snowfall till 8.30 am.

Most places in Punjab and Haryana had overnight rains and rains on Thursday. Day temperatures remained below normal.

Navdeep Informs:Pathankot: 33.2mm, Amritsar: 22.1mm,Ludhiana: 17.6mm, Jalandhar: 5.2mm, Kapurthala: 5mm, Fatehabad(tohana): 25mm, Sonipat: 10mm, Rohtak: 6.5mm. Delhi AP (Palam ) recorded 9.6 mms till Thursday morning.

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Posted 7th Tuesday Night:

2 cms of snow was recorded in Manali (H.P.) on Tuesday. There was a day long snow event in Manali with the day's max at 7.6c. Max in Shimla on 7th was 13.4c.
Wednesday 8th: Heavy rain/snow expected in H.P. Moderate rainfall in Kashmir, Uttarkhand, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi.
Heavy showers in Central Kerala and adjoning TN. Moderate thunder showers in Odisha and TN.
Thursday 9th: Heavy rain/snow in HP and Uttarkahand. Moderate rains in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and North Rajasthan.
Heavy showers in Nilgiri and Central TN. Moderate rains in East Vidharbh.

Rains in all Metros except Mumbai Expected:
New Delhi: Rain/Thundershowers likely next 3 days.Getting cooler after Thursday. 
Kolkata: Daily rain showers from Wednesday for 3 days.
Chennai: Rain on Wednesday, and probably thunder showers in many parts of city on Thursday and Friday.
Bangalore: Light rains next 3 days.

Mumbai:Cooler Weather expected: Partly cloudy skies on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures dropping, getting cooler, from Thursday. Day around 28c and nights around 16c.
Pune: Partly cloudy next 2 days. Weather overall getting cooler from Thursday by 2/3c.

Sunday, March 05, 2017


The Human History of El Niño

El Niño was identified and named long before science caught up with the phenomenon. For centuries, Peruvian fishermen reaped a bounty off the Pacific coast of South America, where north- and west-flowing currents pulled cool, nutrient-rich water from the deep. But every so often, the currents would stop or turn around; warm water from the tropics would drive the fish away and leave the nets empty. These periodic warm spells were most noticeable around December or January—around the time of Christmas, the birth of "the boy child."
Some of the first scientific descriptions of El Niño came during exchanges between the Lima Geographical Society and the International Geographic Congress in the 1890s. But the roots of El Niño stretch far back into history, long before the birth of Jesus of Nazareth or the arrival of Peruvian fisherman. The chemical signatures of warmer seas and increased rainfall have been detected in coral samples and in other paleoclimate indicators since the last Ice Age. This pattern of water and wind changes has been going on for tens of thousands of years.
Earth scientists, historians, and archaeologists have theorized that El Niño had a role in the demise or disruption of several ancient civilizations, including the Moche, the Inca, and other cultures in the Americas. But the recorded history of El Niño really starts in the 1500s, when European cultures reached the New World and met indigenous American cultures.

16th Century

Historical research has suggested that the Spanish conquest of the Incas and Peru may have been aided by El Niño conditions. When Francisco Pizarro first sailed from Panama along the west coast of South America in 1524, his progress was slowed and ultimately stopped by persistent south and southeasterly winds—which follow the pattern of the north-flowing coastal currents. In 1525-26, however, Pizarro got much farther down the coast, riding on favorable northeasterly winds, according to geographer Cesar Caviedes, author of El Niño in History.
Map showing the approximate routes of the conquests of Francisco Pizzaro.
The expeditions of Francisco Pizarro provide hints that his conquest may have been aided by the winds of El Niño. The advance of Pizarro and his conquistadors was most successful during the El Niño of 1532. (NASA Earth Observatory map by Joshua Stevens.)
When Pizarro returned in 1531-32, his ships made haste down the coast, pushed along again by strong northeasterlies—the kind that blow in El Niño years. Once Spanish troops moved inland, they found blooming deserts, swollen rivers, and rainfall in the usually arid regions of Peru and Ecuador. The humid air and moist land allowed the conquistadors to sustain their long march and to avoid Incan settlements on the way to establishing a foothold in the country.

18th Century

Between 1789 and 1792, the monsoon in South Asia failed multiple times, according to historical and scientific records. There is evidence that several other climate patterns—some of them affected by or coinciding with Asian monsoon patterns and El Niño—influenced storm tracks and westerly winds near Europe. According to some researchers, the combination of climate anomalies and unusual weather led to crop failures in Europe and set the stage for some of the unrest that exploded in the French Revolution of 1789.

19th Century

In the book Late Victorian Holocausts, historian Mike Davis suggests that at least three great famines in the late 19th century were connected to El Niño. Extreme weather and the collapse of monsoon circulation—patterns documented by British and Indian officials, among others—led to great droughts and a few floods in 1876-78, 1896-97, and 1899-1900. Between 30 to 60 million people perished in India, China, and Brazil, among other countries; hundreds of millions suffered through hunger and social and political strife. Though European colonialism and the spread of laissez faire capitalism played important roles in these calamities, the global reach (teleconnections) of El Niño and La Niña likely spurred the great droughts, crop failures, and malaria outbreaks.

20th Century

In the 1920s, a transplanted statistician and physicist from Britain began to piece together the big picture of this global weather-maker. While working as Director of Observatories in India and studying the monsoon, Gilbert Walker noted that "when pressure is high in the Pacific Ocean it tends to be low in the Indian Ocean from Africa to Australia; these conditions are associated with low temperatures in both these areas, and rainfall varies in the opposite direction to pressure." He dubbed the alternating atmospheric weather pattern the "Southern Oscillation," noting how highs over the tropical Pacific coincided with lows over the Indian Ocean, and vice versa.
It would be another four decades before Jacob Bjerknes—a Norwegian-born scientist who helped found the meteorology department at the University of California, Los Angeles—made the final connection between the alternating warm and cool patterns in Pacific waters and the atmospheric circulation described by Walker. The entire pattern came to be known as ENSO, or El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and it includes the sister phenomenon known as La Niña.
At least 26 El Niños were recorded in the 20th century, and each brought its own wrinkles that piqued the interest of scientists and sent ripples through economies. The El Niño of 1957-58, for instance, caused serious damage to the kelp forests off California. Another event in 1965-66 crashed the market for guano (fertilizer) in Peru and also spurred the use of soybeans for animal feed (instead of fish meal). In 1972-73, the anchovy population crashed, leading to the death of millions of sea birds and to destabilizing effects on the Peruvian economy and government.
In 1982-83, the first major El Niño to get significant real-time study, sea birds on Christmas Island abandoned their young and flew out over the Pacific in a desperate search for food. Nearly 25 percent of the fur seal and sea lion populations o"To ask why El Niño occurs is like asking why a bell rings or a pendulum swings," atmospheric scientist George Philander wrote in a 1999 paper. "It is a natural mode of oscillation. A bell, of course, needs to be struck in order to ring." After nearly 100 years of investigation, scientists are still not sure what rings the bell; they just know that it rings.
By Mike Carlowicz 
(Excerpts from NASA Earth Observatory.

See Current Weather Page for Delhi/Mumbai/Kolkata Forecast for Next week.

Wednesday, March 01, 2017

ENSO-
neutral conditions are present.

 > Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-average across the central
and east-central Pacific. They are above-average in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
> ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are favoured to continue through at
least the months of March/April/May.

During the last four weeks, negative SST anomalies weakened in the central Pacific.
Meanwhile, above-average SSTs increased and expanded westward from the eastern Pacific.

During the last two months, negative subsurface temperature anomalies have dissipated across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Positive subsurface anomalies have increased along the thermocline across the tropical Pacific Ocean. 

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.

(Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. 
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST
departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.)

The most recent ONI value (November 2016 – January 2017) is -0.7ºC.