Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Additional Part of MW-3 will be put up with Monsoon arrival estimates Today , Friday, late night IST

Heat Wave continues on Thursday and Friday in Sindh, Rajasthan, UP, MP , Vidharbh, Odisha and Northern AP.
Hot conditions abate, with a drop in day temperatures from Saturday in the above regions. Temperatures could fall by 2/3c in the daytime.

Thursday, 1st May:

May begins in Northern Pakistan and North India Hill States with the Western Disturbance, M-1. Precipitation expected in Northern Pakistan regions of Pak Punjab, Islamabad, Balochistan. Sukkur region can get the dust/Thunderstorm.

In India, precipitation expected in Kashmir and HP hills. Punjab can get the isolated thunder shower.
Thunder showers possible in Western Maharastra region, that is Pune, Satara, Sangli. Mahableshwar can get the afternoon thunder shower.  Southwards into adjoining Karnataka. Belgaum will get the afternoon thunder shower.
Heavy showers in Northern Coastal APand adjoining Odisha.

Friday 2nd May:

Rains likely in Extreme North Pakistan, covering Islamabad, Pak Punjab and Upper Sindh.
Rains likely in Northern India and Punjab and parts of Rajasthan.

A vertical LWD is visible in the form of Thunder showers from Northern Maharashtra (Nasik) thru Pune, Stara, Sangli and Marathwada regions into Interior Karnataka. Belgaum and Interior Karnataka will get the thunder showers.Thunder showers in Kerala will be heavy in some regions.
Rains or thunder showers in coastal Odisha and North coastal AP.

Satursday 3rd May:

Rains continue in places of Northern Pak Punjab and Indian states of Kashmir and HP. Plains on NW India too will get the dust/ Thunder storms . Punjab and Haryana and Western UP can get the dust storm or thunder storm.
Thunder storms will pop up in Western Maharashtra and Marathwada. Aurangabad may receive a thunder shower with squally winds.
Interior Karnataka will continue its rainy spell till on Saturday.


Thursday 1st May, Friday 2nd May and Saturday 3rd May: 

Next 3 days, Pune will see thundery developments from afternoon. Light rain in some areas. More rains likely on Friday night. Thunder showers in Mahableswar on friday/Saturday.

Eastern sky of Mumbai will see thunder clouds developing. Otherwise partly cloudy skies, with humid days.Friday evening, thunder clouds may bring light rains in the Eastern Outer townships of Kalyan, Badlapur, Panvel and Navi Mumbai. 
Lonavala and ghats region can get the showers .

New Delhi, getting very hot on Thursday and Friday, with the thermometer touching 44c. Thunder shower possible on Saturday.

After a hot and sultry Thursday, at long last, relief for Bangalore as thunder showers expected on Friday and Saturday.

Kolkata: Though may not cross 40c, hot days at 38/39c continues till friday. Friday some storms form in the vicnity. Saturday, the storm may target parts of Kolkata.

Sunday, April 27, 2014


Monsoon Watch - 3.. 2014 ....Part 1....27th April 2014

1. ENSO:
Subsequent to writing the MW-2, we are keeping a careful watch on the El-Nino developments. the Sub Surface Sea temperatures in the Nino 3.4 and other regions have been constantly warming up since end February. The next logical sequence is the warm waters rising to surface, heat up the Sea surface temperatures, and then effect the trade winds. But, against much over reaction on the El Nino, we see the warming taking its own time. Does not seem to be happening at a faster rate or in a hurried manner. 
The last 2 weeks heating ( Nino 3.4) shows a very nominal warming up, of 0.3c. The meteorological  point to be noted here: The anomaly in February was below normal, while now with a rise, the anomaly is near average. Nino 1+2 has actually declined by 0.7c ! 
The most recent ONI value is -0.7c...(El Nino is characterised by ONI values of 0.5 or above, La Nina is characterised by -0.5 or below).
So the ENSO conditions are still Neutral. 

May happen that an eventual El Nino, though unavoidable, may actually form full fledged ( around August) after the main months of our South West Monsoon have been done with. South West Monsoon may get sluggish ( In Peninsula) after July, around August and September.

Indicator: -ve, as El Nino chances possible in Latter Months of Monsoon.

2. Sub-Continent Seasonal Low: 
 With every passing WD, (A-5 just moved away), the seasonal Low gets a set back. But, things are taking shape slowly.

Seasonal Low has shown signs of forming, core pressure at 1004/1006 mb...
The sesonal low in the Thar region is now weak.The pressure around the Thar desert region is now 1004mb (994mb required by June begining). Proper central core is forming now. And ,as per the required scheduled development, a proper gradient should be in the making.

Days temperatures have "performed miserably" in the MW-1/MW-2 inter period ! Below normal temperatures by as much as 13c had been recorded. 
The highest on date in the Sindh areas is 45c. In India, it has reached 44c in AP.
Again, snow and rains in the Northern hills. 
As a result, and expectedly, the day temperatures fell, and the seasonal low was almost wiped out. 


An exception this year is the Vidharbha region. Even without the normally exceptionally heavy rains, the temperatures are just about managing 42/43c (till 27th April), and in some cities just hovering around the low 40s. Normally Vidarbha is a hotbed ! 45-47c is a "kid's playground" for the region.

In 2011, the minimum temperatures in the region  were higher comparitively at this time. Minimum temperature touched 30c for the first time in 2011on 29th April at Kota (Rajasthan). 
In 2010, 30c as minimum was recorded on 17th April.
And contrast this with the night temperatures today.

The max and min temperatures have to rise now in Sindh, Balochistan and North India. Trends of rising temperatures will be seen again  in Vidharbh, Gujarat and adjoining regions of Sindh across the border.The entire plains of the Sub Continent and Interior Peninsula is set for a heat wave in the week beginning 28th April.

True, the entire sub-continent region has to suffer a heat wave, but the gains are much more.  

The line of dis-continuity, currently "mis behaving" due to WDs and upper troughs, should shift back to its normal postion, in the centre of the Southern Peninsula region. 
Out breaks of pre- monsoon thunder showers are expected normally in the southern states and South Maharashtra.  Though the showers in the South are heavy. We need the thundershowers to commence and precipitate in Maharashtra and Interior Karnataka, indicating a proper flow of moisture into the peninsula region. 
A LWD in the central peninsula region "looks after" the moisture content in the interior areas, and prepares the atmosphere with the humidity required fro a proper and good rainfall in the Lee ward regions.

Indicator: +ve.

3.  Bay Low:
Continuing from MW-2, "Bay of Bengal" low pressure parameter is a worrying factor. Normally, the Bay should host a pre-Monsoon low anytime after 15th.April. Like I mentioned in the previous MW, in 2011 we had a cyclone in the Bay by the third week, and in 2009 a cyclone crossed the Bay on 12th April.2012 hosted a low around 25th April (BB-1).

As on today, this region still maintains a luke warm response to the formation of a quick low. The pressure is anything but low, and the winds indicate a weak "high" trying to stabilise itself. 

What is needed now is a pulse from the Far East, to start with, and break up the existing high pressure area. 

MJO has entered a weak phase in the Bay region. Fortunately, the MJO turns "Neutral" to slightly positive in the Maldives and Comorin areas after 30th April. This will bring a short spell of heavy rains in the region, giving a "false alarm" of the SW Monsoon, as, with the MJO, the rain patch will move East wards, and this will send  favourable indications for the Bay. MJO can then get positive in Bay around 10th May...seems suitable for the Monsoon there !
The shading indicates outgoing longwave radiation (OLR; W/m²).




Only +ve sign of a quick formation is that the SST is conducive. Map shows around 31c near the Andaman Islands. Good temperature for quick low formation.


Indicator: -ve

4. Cross Equatorial Winds :

The Southern  high pressure region, the Power House of our Summer Monsoon, is strengthening  down in the Southern Hemisphere, stretching off the Madagascar Island to the  mid South Indian ocean. 
The Mascrene Highs have, i would say gained to some extent... at 1033mb and 1022 mb.


The cross equatorial wind flow, has just about picked up in the Western sector Southern Hemisphere. Winds, have not yet achieved the required speeds, but just  hitting the East African coast. 

To get a defined Somali Current, we need a proper e-curving Northwards of the winds, on the Kenyan coast.

However, The region below the equator in the Bay sector is almost in the same situation as MW-2.  In the Bay Branch, due to the prevailing High, West winds from the cross flow  are tending to push  Eastwards into the South of the Bay in the 95E-100E region. With no Low in the Southern Hemisphere region, the ICTZ has good scope for normal movement. 
Remember, the normal date for SWM to hit the South Andaman Sea is 15th. May.

Amidst this, no cyclones are likely to form off Australia this season.  If no further low pressure forms there till end of April, the ITCZ can start moving North. Currently it is at 7S. It needs to cross the Equator by 10 th May.As the ITCZ tracks north, associated MJO waves can "ride" alongwith. Meaning, after the shift, more MJO waves in the Northern Hemosphere (read Bay regions).

And with low pressure and ITCZ moving North, the High in the Southern Indian Ocean has a fair chance of getting stronger and anchoring well.

Indicator: Neutral.

The 200 hpa Jet Streams: 
The 200 Jet Streams too, show some awkward anomaly, in the last week. But seems to be getting rectified this week.
During the week, its core was located around Lat. 27°N with the wind speed varying between 84-103 kts around 200 hPa. The highest wind speed of 103 kts was recorded over Patna at 204 hPa. The Easterly core development is still weak.




Conclusion: 
Indicators:  1) ENSO -ve     2) Seasonal Low +ve     3)  Bay Low -ve  4)  Cross equatrial Winds Neutral. 5) UTH trough favourably forming around the Equator in the 80E -100E area.



Normally I would put up the estimated Dates of Monsoon arrival in this MW, but, seeing the changing scenario, would like to wait for a few days. Will put up an additional (brief) MW -4 on 1st May, with the Dates of expected arrival of Monsoon. 

Then, next MW onwards, we go into analysing the quantum of rainfall expected, in the subsequent MW-5 (which as usual will be in 2 parts), and will be ready for publication on 2nd May.

These reports are my personal views, study and observations. Estimates and forecasts are also my own calculations and views, and may/may not tally with any other estimates. This may not be used for commercial purposes. The authour is not responsible for any commercial loss from this article, or this series of articles.

Saturday, April 26, 2014

Monsoon Watch -3 will be on Vagaries on Sunday 27th Night  (IST)

FINALLY HEATING STARTS IN NORTH INDIA, TEMPERATURE REACHES NORMAL LEVEL...

After a long time, temperature reached normal level at most places in North India. The successive WDs this month kept the day temperature below normal for major part of the month. Due to the absence of any significant WD, temperature is expected to push up in the whole region. Few places in plains are already above 40°C.

Palam in Delhi touched 40°C mark yesterday with maximum of 40.5°C. Gurgaon also recorded a maximum of 40°C. Areas of east UP & west Rajasthan are the hottest in the region. Punjab & Haryana are also nearing 40°C mark with few areas of west Haryana already hitting 40°C mark.

Western Himalayan Region is also warming up day by day. Light rain in J&K kept the day temperature low on Thursday. Hill stations like Shimla, Mussorie, Nainital are already registering above normal temperature. Hamirpur in the hilly state of Himachal recorded a high of 35.2°C.
Una in the lower region recorded a high of 37.4°C.
  Here's the maximum temperature  & departure during the past 24 hours ending at 8:30 am IST(26 April) over various parts of the region...
STATE CITY TEMPERATURE (°C) DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL  (°C)
JAMMU & KASHMIR       Banihal         24.9        (0)
JAMMU & KASHMIR       Batote         24.6        (0)
JAMMU & KASHMIR     Bhaderwah         26.2        (0)
JAMMU & KASHMIR      Gulmarg         11.2       (-3)
JAMMU & KASHMIR       Jammu         34.2       (-1)
JAMMU & KASHMIR        Katra         31.2       (-1)
JAMMU & KASHMIR      Kukernag         20.7        (0)
JAMMU & KASHMIR      Kupwara         22.6        (0)
JAMMU & KASHMIR     Pahalgam         18.3       (-2)
JAMMU & KASHMIR     Qazigund         22.4       (-1)
JAMMU & KASHMIR      Srinagar         23.5        (0)
HIMACHAL PRADESH      Bilaspur         34.0       (-1)
HIMACHAL PRADESH     Keylong         14.6        (-1)
HIMACHAL PRADESH    Dharamsala         26.4       (-2)
HIMACHAL PRADESH      Hamirpur         35.2        (0)
HIMACHAL PRADESH      Shimla         23.9        (3)
HIMACHAL PRADESH        Kalpa         19.8        (1)
HIMACHAL PRADESH   Sundernagar         31.9        (0)
HIMACHAL PRADESH        Kullu         28.8        (0)
HIMACHAL PRADESH        Una         37.4        (0)
HIMACHAL PRADESH      Manali         23.6        (6)
HIMACHAL PRADESH       Solan         29.7        (1)
UTTARAKHAND       Almora        31.9        (2)
UTTARAKHAND     Dehradun        35.2        (1)
UTTARAKHAND    Mukteshwar        26.0        (2)
UTTARAKHAND      Mussorie        24.4        (2)
UTTARAKHAND      Nainital        23.5        (2)
UTTARAKHAND     Pantnagar        37.3        (1)
UTTARAKHAND    Pithoragarh        29.2        (1)
UTTARAKHAND       Tehri        24.8       (-1)
UTTARAKHAND     Uttarkashi        32.7        (2)
PUNJAB      Amritsar        35.4       (-1)
PUNJAB     Ludhiana        37.0        (0)
PUNJAB     Patiala        38.1        (1)
CHANDIGARH    Chandigarh        37.3        (1)
HARYANA     Ambala        37.8        (1)
HARYANA     Bhiwani        39.2        (0)
HARYANA      Karnal        39.0        (2)
HARYANA       Hisar        40.0        (1)
HARYANA     Narnaul        37.5       (-1)
NEW DELHI    Safdarjung        38.8        (0)
NEW DELHI      Palam        40.5        (1)
RAJASTHAN      Ajmer        39.5       (0)
RAJASTHAN      Churu        40.8       (0)
RAJASTHAN      Barmer        42.5       (2)
RAJASTHAN     Bikaner        39.6      (-1)
RAJASTHAN     Udaipur        39.4       (0)
RAJASTHAN      Jaipur        40.5       (2)
RAJASTHAN    Jaisalmer        39.0      (-2)
RAJASTHAN     Jodhpur        40.6       (0)
RAJASTHAN      Kota        41.8       (1)
RAJASTHAN   Sriganganagar        39.4      (-1)
UTTAR PRADESH      Agra        40.6       (1)
UTTAR PRADESH     Aligarh        38.4      (-1)
UTTAR PRADESH     Allahabad        42.8       (2)
UTTAR PRADESH     Bahraich        40.0       (2)
UTTAR PRADESH      Banda        41.6       (1)
UTTAR PRADESH     Bareilly        39.2       (0)
UTTAR PRADESH    Fursatganj        41.0       (1)
UTTAR PRADESH      Hardoi        38.2      (-1)
UTTAR PRADESH     Jhansi        41.1       (0)
UTTAR PRADESH     Kanpur        40.2       (1)
UTTAR PRADESH    Lucknow        40.5       (2)
UTTAR PRADESH   Shahjahanpur        38.6       (2)
UTTAR PRADESH    Moradabad        38.5       (2)
UTTAR PRADESH      Meerut        38.9       (1)
UTTAR PRADESH  Muzaffarnagar        36.5       (1)

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

 Mumbai Forecast for Saturday, Sunday and Monday..Updated on Mumbai Page on  Saturday Morning

Monsoon Watch -3 will be on Vagaries on Sunday 27th Night  (IST)
Posted 25th Night:

Friday sees Pune cross 40c...Air Port at 40.6c ansd City 39.6c...Minimum at Airport Friday was 23c and City 19.6c...Our Tuesday Night Forecast was ;" Pune: With the rains staying away, the mercury is all prepared to shoot to the 40c mark. Next 3 days will see very hot days at 40/41c and nights warm around 23c."

Mumbai breathes easy, as the Day's high on Friday fell to 33.8c at Scuz and 32.6c at Colaba....The humidity increase was mentioned also, so has made the sweaty feel more uncomfortable..


Vidharbha is hot, and as shown in Map, has crossed the 40c mark, with Wardha at 43.5c, Brahmapuri 42.7c, Akola 42.6c,  Nagpur 42.2c and Yeotmal 41c.

Good News for Kolkata....Kolkata will have to bear the heat for one more day, Saturday 26th. Saturday will see isolated Thunder Showers popping up in Central Bengal. Sunday and Monday, South/South-West winds will dominate, and gust at 35 kmph. Sunday onwards, Kolakata sees a fall in day temperature to below 40c....


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted 24th April: ..And Mumbai Heat continues for the 4th day running....for those Interested, See explanation on Mumbai Page

Hot on Thursday  in AP, Vidharbh, and Odisha...Hottest in India on Thursday was Rentachintala-43.4c, Bhubaneshwar 
Bankura-42.8c, Bhawanipatna, Bramhapuri and Angul-42.7c, Barmer-42.6c, Titlagarh-42.5c, Jalgaon-42.3c, Akola and Anantapur-42.1c and Baroda-42.0c.

But, as expected, the heat in Konkan is easing, with the day temperatures on Thursday showing a moderate fall..some Thursday readings from Konkan......Panji and Dahanu 34.9c, Ratnagiri 33.4c, Alibag 32.2c..Mumbai Scruz 36.5c, Vagaries 36.5c and Colaba 33.4c...See Mumbai Page for Latest Update and forecast 

As expected, Nawabshah touched 44c on Thursday, and Islamabad reached 33c, on its way to the 34c "sceduled " for Friday.

A-5, projected for Thursday is also on schedule, and has started precipitating in Pak Punjab and Kashmir. Will move East into India on friday. As mentioned in previous article (below), will precipitatae in Kashmir, HP, parts of Punjab and Haryana getting isolated thunder squalls.

LWD in the Peninsula is getting into shape. We can expect good rains in Interior Karnataka and Kerala.







What's in store now for the Sub Continent ?

Now, by the 25th, a weak WD would move into the Northern Parts of the Sub Continent, the Northern most parts.
Rains would be seen in the Extreme North of Pakistan and in the States of Kashmir, Hills of HP and some thunder squalls in the Plains of both the Punjabs. Rains would be precipitating on 24th and 25th.
Most Cities of Punjab ( including Malout) and Haryana will be around 37-39c till Friday.Thunder squalls likely on Thursday/Friday in Punjab.

By the 25th, Heat would have enveloped all of Regions as shown ( Red) in the Vagaries Map.



The LWD in the Southern peninsula, would bring Thunder Showers to S.I. Karnataka and Southern Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
On 24th and 25th, rainfall effected will be Karnataka regions of Hassan, Kodagu and Mysore. Mangalore could get the Thundershower. Adjoinig Kerala would see Thunder Showers.


City Forecast for Wednesday 23rd, Thursday 24th and Friday 25th:

Mumbai:Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will see a hazy sky and hot temperatures. With humidity increasing, the sweaty feeling is going to increase, with the day temperatures around 35c and nights around 26/27c.
Pune: With the rains staying away, the mercury is all prepared to shoot to the 40c mark. Next 3 days will see very hot days at 40/41c and nights warm around 23c.

Goa: Sunny, living up to its reputation. Days warm/hot and humid, at 35c.
Nagpur: Hot and dry, with day temperatures gradually shooting up , and reaching 42/43c by Thursday/friday.

Bangalore: With no rains in the next 4 days, would expect partly cloudy with hot days. Days around 36c, and nights also warm by Bangalore standards around 22c.

Delhi NCR: No rain, but an odd thunder squall on Thursday/Friday. Would say 40c would elude Delhi proper till Saturday. but we may see 40c in the vicinity by Thursday.

Kolkata: We have been reading in vagaries about the heat in the Bengal region. And sure its going to stay next few days..rather its about to be extreme. Would expect Kolkata to ready itself for 43c bu Thursday...but Humidity decreasing.

Pakistan:
Islamabad: Partly cloudy. Warm/hot day, temperatures gradually rising from 31c on Tuesday to touch 34/35c by Friday.

Karachi: Dry and mostly sunny. Gusty west winds on Thursday. Temperatures in the 36c and 26c range.
Larkana and Nawabshah can see a dust storm with light rains. Maximum around 41c.Interior Sindh going up to 42/43c from Thursday.

Now you can get complete All India Daily Rainfall details in Pradeep's Page in Vagaries
---------------------
No more worries about missing rainfall data, the one page information in Vagaries will contain Daily Rainfall, Rainfall Toppers, Norwestor, Cyclone Speeds, Top 24 hr Rainfall, Wettest Spells and Rainfall Records etc

Sunday, April 20, 2014


Monsoon Watch - 2   (20th April 2014) 
(Request see Article on Big Laptop screen as Maps and Charts will be better Understood and have been put up with lot of effort..Thanks)

Further Analysis of the parameters as discussed in MW-1. 


1. Seasonal Low: As the average day/night temperatures in the Central Sub-Continent areas have  not shown warming up recently, the -ve factor from the previous MW (last week) discussion shows some improvement (though still -ve). A-3 and A-4 have predominantly kept the days cooler. 
Northern India in fact was almost 12-15c below normal in the day.Bengal region still remains above normal.( See Saturday Article below)
Marginal Heat waves are seen in the North East and Eastern coast of India now.
Vagaries' Sunday Map of Anomaly Below





Comparison with previous years-. In 2010, the first 45c touched on 10th. April, and on the same day Nagpur was 44c, Delhi 42.8c. Soon on 15 th April 2010,  Nawabshah (Pakistan) soared to 47c, Simla to 28.2c on 16th, Ganganagar, Akola and Hissar to to 46c. 
But, 2011 ,2012 and 2013 were similar to 2014. This year also, we are yet to reach 45c anywhere in the Sub-Continent, as was in 2011, 2012 and 2013. 
Highest till date ( 2014) is 44c in Nawabshah on 12th April 2014.
Into the 3rd. week of April now, and a prominent heat wave is missing.
The Line of Wind Discontinuity should stabilise around Central India perpendicular down into the Southern Peninsula by mid April. This enhances the speed of the Seasonal Low formation. Normally is required to start taking shape for the monsoon by the second week of April –As on date,  LWD from Central Maharashtra down to Interior Karnataka is forming. Rain/TS have lashed many parts of Central India last 2 days..
In reality, this LWD remains till June, in variable phases, and finally merges with the Monsoon trough (axis)/ITCZ  when the ICTZ moves towards the Sub Continent.
Not much thunderstorm activity in Southern Tibet (though expected to pick up).
Normal April synoptic features :

There is  a high pressure in central Arabian sea and central/north bay which are normal synoptic features seen in April.
But as the second half of summer progresses the high over the bay should collapse (at least by 15th May)  and the formation of low pressures over the Southern Bay should be in situ..
As the second half of summer progresses (by 15th May): Lows over MP, Central India, Chotanagpur plateau(Jharkhand) should become less conspicuous because of the strengthening of the seasonal low over NW india.

As on 20th. April 2014, the core pressure in the seasonal Low, in the Thar Desert region is at 1006 mb, though not prominently formed yet. Could hardly be called a “developing” Seasonal Low.

As on 20th. April 2013, the lowest pressure, in the Thar Desert region was at 1002 mb. (2011 was 1006 mb, 2010/2012 was at 1002 mb this time ).As mentioned, it normally should reach a low nadir of 994 mb in June, and with 1008mb in the South Arabian Sea, a perfect gradient is created to attract the south -west winds towards the coast.



Though the current heating is bleak, some time should be given for the heating to peak (till 1st week of may) , before raising a red flag..
Indicator 1: -ve (last year was also -ve this time of the year)


2. The ENSO:

 Since January, a large volume of warmer-than-average water (known as a downwelling Kelvin wave) has progressed from the western Pacific sub-surface to the central Pacific sub-surface and warmed, eroding the cooler waters in the east.
The latest sea surface temperature anomaly across the NINO3.4 region, in the central Pacific, is +0.3 °C and has shown steady warming since February.
NINO 3.4 is the predominant Region to see for El Nino..For our region.

Nino regions in the Pacific Ocean:




Though currently neutral, all models suggest El Nino conditions through the Indian summer.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 6 April 2014 is −9.0.
Last year (2013) the 30 day SOI value was +5.1 (neutral).



Last year was neutral.

Indicator: Towards El Nino ( will interfere with the advance/onset of monsoon  ).

3. Last week, the Cross Equatorial winds, which originate from the Southern Indian Ocean as SE winds, and cross the equator to become South-West, were weak.

Normal wind flow in April: 


The winds on crossing the equator break into 2 branches. 1) gushing into the Arabian Sea, and 2) moving into the Bay of Bengal. 

1) Initial forming off the East African Coast, has started from below the equator and the weak SE flow towards Eastern Africa can be seen.They are becoming organized.
2) In the Bay Branch, Westerlies are forming in the south Indian ocean ,off the Sumatran coast.
We prefer  the Bay Branch to be better organised, as the S W Monsoon is expected there in 25-27 days….


They are better organized than last year on date.
Indicator:  Normal

Mascarene high pressures :

The high has strengthened from 1019 last week  to 1031  mb .
Main High reading now 1031 mb, and 2 more Highs (in the forming) have been observed, one at 1029 mb and another at 1025 mb. between Madagascar and Australia.
Last year (2013) on date the main high reading was 1029 mb and other highs were 1025 mb and 1018 mb.
Indicator: Normal (last year was –ve)   
4. ICTZ : To bring the existing SE winds above the equator, the ITCZ should move northwards. Around 1st. of May, this should cross the equator, and be near the South Andaman Seas around 10th May.
Not much thundery activity in the western Indian ocean .The eastern end sees some Activity.
The ICTZ runs roughly along the 7S line, almost along the entire length from East Africa towards the Southern Indonesian Islands.

Indicator: -ve (last year was normal)         
 5. But the Pre Monsoon Low in the Bay is still elusive. As discussed, we should normally see a low sometime after the 15th. of April. The high pressure region in the Bay, at sea level, no longer prevails.
I do not see much happening soon, as the region does not have the support of a strong MJO. An strong MJO would hasten the favourable formations and lows, with enhanced precipitation. We do not see the MJO wave strengthening till 28th April at least.
Another factor, which helps the winds gain strength, and bring more moisture into the Indian landmass, is the sea temperatures on both sides of the Peninsula. Optimum (warm) temperatures will hasten and create more clouds, and help in faster forming of the lows from the Bay. 
This parameter, is unfavourable compared to last year. See comparitive SST Maps with Last Year


The sea waters are cooler around the Maldives this year.
In the South Indian Ocean, the waters are a bit warmer than last year ,but the Mascarene highs are stronger than last year as already  mentioned above.See comparative Maps below.
Indicator: -ve (last year was normal)               
So, overall, we can summarize as:
Parameter:
1)  Seasonal low:-ve   
2) Enso:Towards El Nino
3)  Cross equatorial winds and Mascarene high : Normal
4) ICTZ : -ve   5) SST: -ve
[Note: the parameters can swing rapidly in short duration as seen in previous years].
Most parameters are Negative as of today.
But, situations can change fast, and by the time we discuss the next MW, some factors can suddenly become +ve or -ve. So, MW discusses and follows the developments as they emerge, and discuss the parameters as is where is.
No model can commit from today when the Monsoon can arrive. Quantum of rain forecasting in the month of  April,  for a period right through September is an impossible task.
Next MW up on 28th. April with Dates of Monsoon Arrival for 1st Phase of Monsoon upto Central India Region
(Last Year (2013), Vagaries had a written Examination cum Learning Curriculum for Forecasting the South West Monsoon. The 2nd Palce with 55% marks was achived by vagarian Rohit Aroskar. This time for MW-2, Rohit's contribution and observations were scrutinised and added to this article.)
These reports are my personal views, study and observations. Estimates and forecasts are also my own calculations and views, and may/may not tally with any other estimates. This may not be used for commercial purposes. The author is not responsible for any commercial loss from this article, or this series of articles.
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