Saturday, August 29, 2009

The discussed "low" behaved, and moved westwards across the central regions of India. Rainfall precipitated was good along its path thru M.P.and Gujarat. Amounts in Gujarat varied from 50 mms- 100 mms. All on course as yet, and on the dated schedule too.

But, it has to show its erratic erratic behaviour somewhere !So, somehow, the low, and its precipitatation areas just avoided the entire state of Maharashtra (except a days rain in Vidharbh).

Today, Saturday, the image of clouds shows the low over Gujarat. Cloudes proper over Gujarat, but neatly avoiding Maharashtra ! Good rainfall over Gujarat is being experainced. (This blog is written on Saturday 1 p.m.).
The avoidance of clouding and rainfall to Konkan and the Mumbai region is puzzling and confusing. All the known models had forecast good rain for Mumbai on Friday. A resultant vortex near Mumbai was anticipated by me on Friday, but today, the vortex has formed a bit north, in the Gulf of Cambay. As a result, today, there is rain north of Mumbai, from Dahanu northwards, to be precise.

A "wagging tail" effect of the low can still bring some meaningfull rain to Mumbai, on Saturday evening.

I anticipate the low to move west, and merge in the North Arabian Sea. Central and western India may see less rain for a few days thence.

With this system moving away from India, another low is approaching the A.P. coast around the 2nd. of September.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

So, everything as per schedule ! Dot on schedule, in fact, as per the "time table" of the last blog !

The current low pressure area now lies over coastal Orissand with the pressure core at 1000 mb .
And, the southward moved axis of monsoon trough today passes through Bikaner, Deesa, Jabalpur, Raipur, Center of low pressure area.

Now, rainfall activity is to start today (25th.) with heavy rainfall over Orissa, Chhattisgarh and north Andhra Pradesh during next 1/2 days and decrease thereafter as the system weakens and moves west.
Subsequently, the rainfall activity is likely to increase over Madhya Pradesh from tomorrow and over Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat state from 27th onwards.

As a result of the low merging with the upper air, and the monsoon trough over the Gujarat region, Konkan Goa and south Gujarat can expect extremely heavy rains of upto 250 mms/day around 28th. The resulting "new" low ,of around 996 mb, over Gujarat will re-emerge into the Arabian Sea around the 30th. of this month. Whether it moves west towards Oman or not, will be monitored as and when.

Mumbai, brace up for very heavy rains from Thursday/ Friday. Thursday night thru Friday will see more than 150 mms rain over the city. Friday rains may flood vulnerable areas of the city.
Depending on the movement of the system, and its "fast" merger with the axis, it is possible heavy rains may commence in Mumbai from Thursday afternoon.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Map of the day's high today in the sub-continent:

Some reasonable precipitation occured this week, and thankfully in deficit areas.
With good rains in Maharashtra and central India regions last few days, the result of an upper air low over Maharashtra, the deficit in the region will get a big boost, when the IMD figures are out this Thursday.

And now, another low is expected to cross the eastern coast of India around the 25th. Models show it crossing the east coast, and the precipitation moving, and increasing gradually westwards, culminating in very heavy rainfall over Gujarat by 28th./29th.
Monitoring this system from Monday onwards, we can expect rains to be moderate over coastal A.P./Orissa Monday/Tuesday (24th./25th.).
Wednessday/Thursday, we see the low shifting west, but with moderate rains over M.P. and Vidharbh. But, as the low approaches Gujarat, it may get a boost from a connecting upper low at 850 hpa, and thus, while re-emeging into the Arabian Sea, Gujarat regions may see very heavy rains 28th./29th.

Konkan , and Mumbai, may witness rains on Tuesday/Wednessday, as a result of the explained movement of the above system.

For Mumbai, Monday will be day of few heavy showers, not persisting too much. Rain around 20-25 mms. Cloudy weather will keep the temperature at 29c. Monsoonish atmosphere on Tuesday/Wednessday, with an increase in rains, and the city may get upto 35-40 mms per day.

On a lighter note: Btw, weather wise, its "peaceville" for the media now-a-days !! No topic for hyping now.Yes, it can be funny and make you chuckle when the weather gets all "hyped up". But that is media at it`s best....grabbing the viewers attention and getting them to stay tuned for the latest details.
And, if nothing threatening is going problem. Always, there is scope to put up and describe the terrible events that happened last year, or some years ago, and what will certainly happen to the unprepared

Friday, August 21, 2009

Yes Sir ! An active and vigorous monsoon in central India, especially the drought prone regions of Marathawada on Thursday/Friday! These regions got a very good inflow of moisture from the Upper Air Low" in the Arabian Sea, and good thunderstorms resulted in some very heavy rain. (Map of Monsoon activity of today).

Thunder Showers scheduled, bang on date as per our previous blogs, resulted in the estimated 75mms of rain in Mumbai (S'Cruz) on Thursday and 55 mms there again on Friday. 150 mms in Pune on Thursday and Friday. 50 mms in Aurangabad in 8 hrs. on Friday. And some more heavy rain figures from Maharashtra: Osmanabad, Kalam-9 each, Phaltan-8, Koregaon-7,Pune, Shirur, Karad, Vaduj-6 each, Santacruz, Vita, Miraj, Satara, Mantha, Mahur, Jintoor, Gankekhed, Sengaon, Kelvan, Sirpur, Dahiwadi, Sangola-5 each, Dharavi, Wai, Kagal, Hatkangle-4 each.

Ok. Now what ?

1.-The rainfall in the coastal regions of Konkan (Mumbai) and Karnataka to increase more after Monday .2.- Interior Maharashtra and Karnataka to continue with similar rains till Monday. 3.-Central India and west U.P./Delhi to get reduced rains from this weekend. North-west India, and regions across the international borders will be dry, and hot. 4.- Southwards, T.N. will be almost dry, and Karnataka rains will reduce from Monday. 5.-Gujarat, Almost dry till Tuesday, except south saurashtra.

I am trying to give a region wise forecast for the next few days, till around the 25th.- may not have explained it too clearly.

After the 25th, ECMRWF tells of a low coming from the bay. Will judge its course later. But if its coming, then surely my estimated of the rain spell continuing till the end of the month will materialise.

Mumbai, expect frequent showers, thunder in the evening, on Saturday/Sunday. Rains to the extent of 20 mms per day. Not really much to dislodge events. Evening showers can dampen outdoor activities/festivities on the weekend.
BTW, from Saturday, expecting a rise in temperatures in the regions of Oman, Dubai and neighbourhood, to reach 41c in Dubai, and 39-40c in Muscat.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

So things seem to be moving as per expectations ! Lets keep our fingers crossed, and rule out this monsoon as yet, but hope the time table mentioned in the last blog is adhered to by the various systems, now hovering around the Indian Sub-continent. Though some international models have pushed the date of revival of rains along western India to 24th. August, i estimate to the contrary, and would like to stick to my origianl scheduled forecast dates. (Being a bit too pessimistic :-)

"The upper air cyclonic circulation over interior Tamilnadu and adjoining Kerala now lies over Kerala and neighbourhood and extends upto mid-tropospheric levels. It is tilting southwestward with height."-IMD. The 925 streamline map demomstrates this.

Todays satellite image shows all the convective cloudings in the south-west segment.
The forecasted MJO wave has somewhat established itself over the equator region below the Indian Peneinsula. Now, this should be moving to the east towards the South China Sea, and as expected, push a low/pulse into the weak monsoon prevailing over the sub-continent presently.
And, the monsoon should be getting moisture from the current phase of the MJO, as normally, its impact of producing weather systems is known to last for upto 10 days.

The revival of monsoon over the peninsula regions is expected to become more established from this week, as the upper air circulation in the south, which did not sink to sea level, much as we would have liked it to, crosses the southern states.
With the off- shore trough getting moisture, the rain belt will start moving northwards along the west coast in a day.

As a sequel, interior peninsula and central India will benefit from the rains thus precipitated.

Mumbai, expect the rains from Wednessday, yes, i think we can stick to that forecast. A little change though! Seeing thunderclouds over the eastern horizon yesterday, and many thunder anvils along the west coast yesterday evening, i think Mumbai will get rain along with thunder/lightning during the evening.
These thunder clouds along the west coast, at various points could be due to local vortex forming as a result of the heat.

Monday, August 17, 2009

As an outcome of the upcoming MJO mentioned in the last blog, a circulation has now formed over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka, which is expected to bring meaningfull rainfall over south peninsular India during the next few days. This system is expected to come to sea level, and as a low, cross the land area of South India, and remerge into the Arabian Sea. As a result, i estimate, it will merge with the seasonal off shore trough, and will bring good rainfall along the coasts of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Konkan, gradually from Wednessday onwards.
On transversing the land, there will be very good rains in T.N. and Karnataka (all regions) in the next 2 days.
Also, all International models indicate the monsoon strengthening from the southwest coast after August 20. Hence, if we draw up a rain timetable, Southern states will get rains from 17th. -19th, and the rains should start penetrating northwards along the west coast from the 19th, and the rain spell should persist till the 24th. at least.
This will usher the monsoon current back into interior Maharashtra and M.P. bringing it under much needed rain cover .
The Eastern U.P and northeast India are currently receiving rains as a result of 2 upper air cyclonic circulations held together from Sunday. The 2 systems, stuck along the monsoon axis, have now merged, and are likely to become weak, as the southern system gains in strenght. The rains in the east will gradually reduce from today.
Before, going too much ahead, lets first acknowledge the fact, that the low, in the bay, has formed as per our estimate, from the MJO wave, and the monsoon has become "somewhat pedictable". So, hopefully, things can go as per the time table, and the drought prone regions can expect to get rains, good rains, from 19th.-25th.August.

Mumbai should see an increase in rainfall from Wednessday. If the progress is maintained, a vortex can form the Mumbai coast by Thursday, and the city can get upto 70 mms on Thursday. But i will give a fresh estimate again after seeing the developments.

Friday, August 14, 2009

As the monsoon continues playing truant, the media also continues with its Met-bashing. But much of the blames and criticisms received by the Met Dept is not just, and cannot be restricted to weather men in India, but all over the world. This year, most of the international weather models have been proved wrong, specially as regards our monsoon. And this, if one re-reads, i have mentioned time and again in many of my blogs previously.

Fact is, meteorology can never achieve the accurate kind of estimate. In fact, i think no other forecast in any other field, in any field, whether it is stocks or any futuristics, can be accurately estimated.
The blame for this lies not with our weathermen but the nature of the subject, they are dealing with.
"An open system, on the other hand, deals with realities that are large and complex, and typically involve a range of variables, none of which can be isolated or controlled, much less recreated, in laboratories. The subject-matter of meteorology - continental weather systems - is an instance of the latter. Denied the benefit of real-time experiments, meteorology depends on modelling and computer simulation for its research.
A model, by definition, is not reality but an abstracted, simplified version of it. But they would have to be gods to get it right each time. Those who compare the record of the Indian Met with the western world are wrong too. Forecasting in India, by virtue of its location at the intersection of several weather systems, is infinitely more hazardous than in the West. So next time, if it does not rain, don't blame the weatherman but the complexity of his world and the limits of human knowledge."-
Quoted from an article from the Times of India, some time ago.
Come on, we are meteorologists, not magicians!

As per the latest now, the monsoon is at -29%, and like i said before, anything over -10% is bad. The latest rain deviation map from IMD shows a big chunk of India in the "red".
Also,daily rain diagrams of Mumbai, Delhi and Sholapur, are shown at the end of this blog to indicate as to how little the "actual rainy days" are in the season.
Now, carrying on from the last blog, we await the formation of lows and systems from the next MJO wave. We have to keep our fingers crossed, and hope the next rain spell, from 19th. August to 1st. September, will be strong enough to at least cover up some of the deficit. It is obvious, that all the -29% will not be wiped out. As of now, there is no sign, and chances, of any low forming in the bay in the next 2/3 days.
What i personally see is the next rain spell, whether strong or moderate, will cover most of south, central, western, east and north India in its 10 day period. It may leave out a major part of north-west India.
After this spell is over, that is around the first week of September, we may see the monsoon withdrawing from the Rajasthan region.
Till end of this week, subdued monsoon all over, except along the monsoon axis, and that too,most of the rains will be near the eastern end of the line (Bengal, Jharkhund and north Orissa), and along the foothills of the Himalayas (Uttaranchal)
For Mah.Gujarat and Karnataka, monsoon revival will be only after 19th.
Mumbai, as expected, became hot at 33c yesterday, and was too stuffy for comfort. I expect high temperatures to continue next 2 days, with very little rain for the weekend. But, the humidity may be a bit less.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

The elusive low in the bay is increasing the monsoon deficit by the day. As on the 5th. it was -26%, and remember, anything over -10% is serious matter !
If we recall the last 2 drought like conditions in the previous years in this decade the monsoon was -19% in 2002 and -13% in 2004.

Lets analyse and see the prospects of happenings in the next 2/3 days.
Today, the low "aloft" mentioned in the previous blog, has moved westwards, and as we discussed, precipitatating some rain along the central regions of India.Not much to write about really !(map of todays actual rain is atttached).
International models indicate the fizzling out of this system "aloft" within a day. The expected arrival of MJO wave may once again start rains (after the 20th.), and precipitations will start from the origin of the MJO, that is Kerala/Karnataka coast. But previous instances show, that at the rate of the present pace of development, and the time lags in the initial time of development, the MJO will be fully operational on the South Indian coasts (and then onwards inland), not before 20th. August and could last as a wave for around 15 days, on an average. .

The current dry spell in northwest India is due to the replacement of the seasonal W.D, normally located at the western end of the monsoon axis, by a high. Resultantly, the days have become substantially hot, hotter than i anticipated a few days earliar ! On the 11th. in Pakistan it was 47c at Nokundi, and in India, Ganganagar was 42.9c, And 41.5 at Hissar.Much of Rajasthan was around 39-41c today (11th.)

Today the monsoon trough passes through Firozpur, Meerut, Kanpur, Daltengunj,Jamshedpur, Digha and thence southeastwards to eastcentral Bay of Bengal, slightsouthward compared to yesterday. According to the IMD, It is likely to shift further southwards during 48hrs.
Now, the dissapointing story !
The IMD has degraded the low expected in the bay to the expected formation of a circulation / weak low pressure l during next 1/2 days from the 11th.
Model predictions suggest that under the combined influence of southward shift of monsoon and the circulation, monsoon is likely to improve over the country. But a circulation is not a low, it is weaker, and 1 notch lower.
Hence, after the moving away/fizzling out of the on-going low "aloft" (the one discussed above), a sort of lull can be expected again, at least till the weak circulation forms in the bay. Though, i personally do not expect much from this formation in the bay. We may have to wait for another 8 days to see something "happening " from the MJO.
Rains will be subdued for this week mostly all over, except the eastern states.
Mumbai, scanty rains,in different parts, not more than 5 mms per day, and again hot (it is now 32c ), for the next 2 days. No real "monsoon" rains for another 2 days, at least.

Sunday, August 09, 2009

The Southern Oscillation Index [SOI] for August was +1. The official monthly SOI for July was +2, thus not much change, in the El-Nino position, which is linked to the SOI Index.

Most indicators suggest an El Nino event is developing across the Pacific Basin. SST conditions indicate that they should they persist at such levels through the next 2/3 months. This will be considered an El Nino year. El Nino indicators include central and eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperatures around 1C above average, and there has been a poor fallout to the southwest monsoon season .

According to the Australian Met Dept, the SOI is more positive than one would expect for a developing El Nino situation. El Nino events are often associated with drier than normal conditions over large parts of the Australian continent, and lesser developments of systems from the South China Sea towards the Bay of Bengal. Thus, poorer rainfall results in the Indian region.
The onset of the monsoon over Kerala took place on 23rd. May, about 7 days earlier than the long-term average date. Rains were then below average over most of the Indian sub continent during early June, consistent with an inactive phase of the MJO over that region.
Rainfall has generally been scanty over much of the sub-continent in July too, as the MJO signal has generally been weak. The MJO signal currently continues to be quite weak.
This technicality is mentioned in this blog by me to stress upon the prevailing very low rains in the sub-continent region.

An upper Air Circulation has developed in the northern bay on the 9th. The attached SSt map shows not much "above normal " temperatures in the bay waters. As a result, the low "aloft" is not expected to descend to lower levels yet, and will move west and precipitate fair amounts of rain , in a narrow corridor along N. Andhra towards Vidharbha on Tuesday, and M.P. on Wednessday. Future course, we will monitor, and predict later, but it should weaken and bring some rain to north-west india.
But, in the meanwhile, what should be actually awaited is a low at sea level.

Currently, the rains in all the region remains poor. The rainfall map for the 9th. shows the picture of actual rain.

With the monsoon axis stuck in the foothills of the Himalayas, the rains all over the region baring, the eastern end of the axis, will be subdued.

Not much rains for Mumbai on Monday/Tuesday. Some showers in parts of the city, with a rainfall of 5-7mms per day. Hot and stuffy conditions will make the "real feel '' uncomfortable.

Thursday, August 06, 2009

Last week's rain over India ! widely deficient and scanty ! -64%, thats the week's rain.
And overall, for the season, we come to -25%. Just see the map ! Self explanatory.

How long is this "break Monsoon" going to last now?

What I would always see in these circumstances is what has been happening off South China Sea. Often Relying on my "Pacific Typhoon" theory, and i have mentioned it quite often in many a previous blogs, that a westward tracking tropical cyclone here can propogate a depression over the Bay of Bengal roughly 10 days later. Acoording to international models, GFS, a system formation is on the anvil in the bay by early next week, around the 11th.

I too, feel the development of a system on the hinds of the last typhoon (Morakot) in the South China Sea, is possible around the 11th. Forecasts this season have been let downs several times, so i am very cautious this time again.
Rain fall will continue to be very less all over, with a few heavy falls on the eastern end of the monsoon axis.

And, temperatures are high, as predicted. On Thursday,48c in Pakistan and 41c in Rajasthan (Ganganagar) and Hissar.

Truant monsoon to continue in Mahrashtra and Mumbai till early next week. Mumbai lakes are not recieving much rain though, and in the last week, it has been negligible in the lake regions.

Mumbai rains will be around 5 mms on friday and 5-10 mms on weekend. Not much by any standards! And hot ! From the high of daily 31c, now we have seen 32/33c on Thursday.

Tuesday, August 04, 2009

This particular blog is to create an understanding and awareness, and avoid panic reactions, on the media excitments created over "doomsday" and "Global Warming".... by expressing my views and many feedbacks from the world over,

Well. consider, in recent past, the so called experts have warned of certain doom from, The Population bomb, Nuclear winter, the new Ice age, the ozone hole, Y2K, killer bees, Global Warming, and now Global Climate Change. More locally (Mumbai), high tides of devestating proportions, killer rains in July and the Mars effect, and of-course, the "once- in- a- life- time" solar eclipse !
The truth is that scaring people is a good way to get your papers published, and get some research money. People often buy material that scare them, they like to be frightened.

The news/media industry may have made a fortune out of scaring people.
Many people WANT to be scared, I think they seek it out, and this is just another thing they can latch on to. maybe it’s genetic. It’s almost a survival trait. So as a species we get some kind of perverse satisfaction out of thinking doom is right around the corner and for some reason we’re not happy if we think it’s not, so we run around finding things to be scared of (Dinosaur killing Asteroids! Super Novas, Super Earthquakes, Super Volcanoes, Super Hurricanes, Nuclear War, Swine Flu, High tides, Low Tides and what not. What more is to come ? I dont want to know !!
Like, any minute now the Lord is going show up and tell everyone to get out of the pool.

Global Warming isn’t a lot different. Carbon, well, we think we can DO something about that (we’re not sure what, but doing something is extremely important!)

Consider some weather facts of the past....
“The 1936 North American heat wave was the most severe heat wave in the modern history of North America. It took place in the middle of the Great Depression, and it contributed to it, and led to catastrophic human suffering and an enormous economic toll. The death toll exceeded 5,000. Agricultural losses were enormous as well, as crops were destroyed by the high heat and lack of moisture. Many of the state and city record high temperature set during the 1936 heat wave still stand to this day.
The year 1936 brought significant amounts of extreme weather. The winter was one of the coldest on record, and the summer was one of the hottest.The 1930s are remembered as the driest and warmest decade for the US (the Dust Bowl years). But help came in the 1940s with heavy rains.”--(from Wikipedia).

And then 40 years hence.....
The year? 1972. The problem?
Global cooling:
"In Africa, drought continues for the sixth consecutive year. During 1972 record rains in parts of the U.S., Pakistan and Japan caused some of the worst flooding in centuries. In Canada’s wheat belt, a particularly chilly and rainy spring has delayed planting and may well bring a disappointingly small harvest. Rainy Britain, on the other hand, has suffered from uncharacteristic dry spells the past few springs. A series of unusually cold winters has gripped the American Far West, while New England and northern Europe have recently experienced the mildest winters within anyone’s recollection.
As they review the bizarre and unpredictable weather pattern of the past several years, a growing number of scientists are beginning to suspect that many seemingly contradictory meteorological fluctuations are actually part of a global climatic upheaval. However widely the weather varies from place to place and time to time, when meteorologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find that the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades.
Telltale signs are everywhere —from the unexpected persistence and thickness of pack ice in the waters around Iceland to the southward migration of a warmth-loving creature like the armadillo from the Midwest.Since the 1940s the mean global temperature has dropped about 2.7° F. Although that figure is at best an estimate, it is supported by other convincing data. When Climatologist George J. Kukla of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and his wife Helena analyzed satellite weather data for the Northern Hemisphere, they found that the area of the ice and snow cover had suddenly increased by 12% in 1971 and the increase has persisted ever since. Areas of Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, for example, were once totally free of any snow in summer; now they are covered year round".--Quote from the Time Magazine.

The reason(s) for the contrast change in a reasonable time period ?? Man? Man was throwing up too much “dust and other particles”. And obviously, during this period there was hardly any industry and we had the most fuel efficient transportation possible.

The earth’s current climate is something of an anomaly; in the past 700,000 years, there have been at least seven major episodes of glaciers spreading over much of the planet. Temperatures have been as high as they are now only about 5% of the time. But there is a peril more immediate than the prospect of another ice age.

Weather changes come and go. Records are happening all the time. Many warmings and coolings can be quoted, and I can fill up pages and pages.... A 50 year high in day temperature means this temperature happened 50 years ago also !!

Lets not panic, and trust nature to take care of things. But lets not abuse nature.

Monday, August 03, 2009

The much feared upper air "low" has moved eastwards into the Pakistan region, expected to remain there for a couple of days.
With a subdued monsoon phase, the day temperatures in the entire sub-continent region has increased, and most of the Indian region shows an "above normal" tendency. The IMD map shows an above normal deviation of upto 4c, considered quite high for this time of the year.

The map from Cologne Univ. shows the overall distribution of the day temperatures on the 3rd.August. I expect a further rise in day temperatures ( due to factors mentioned below of the "status Quo" position), and can reach 40c, or above, in Haryan/Rajasthan and Gujarat regions.
Highest maximum temperature on 3rd. was recorded in Dalbandin (Pakistan) at 49c. and 41c in Ganganagar and Hissar in India.

Western part of the axis of monsoon trough runs close to the foot hills of Himalayas and eastern part of the axis passes through Forbesganj, Krishnanagar and thence southeastwards to eastcentral Bay of Bengal., resulting in the `weak phase’ with subdued rainfall, if any at all, for central and peninsular India. Map from NRL indcates the poor distribution of todays rain over the region.

The eastern end of the trough is what is sustaining the ongoing rainfall over east and northeast India.
W.Bengal including Kolkata, and Bihar,should get heavy showers in the next couple of days.

The Bay of Bengal has once again failed the forecasters this year, with an anticipated low-pressure area not materialising on Sunday. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the ECMWF had maintained their outlook for the ‘low’ until only two days ago but suddenly withdrew their projection.

On Sunday, the IMD indicated an upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay. This would have had to descend to lower levels to set up the ‘low,’ but that was not to be. Maybe due to the sea temperatures not being high enough, to make the upper air circulation descend at sea level.
At least two global models indicated that the upper air circulation may remain over the northwest Bay for another three to four days.
So, conditions not developing to bring the monsoon axis southwards, the rainfall pattern may yet remain the same and at :status Quo" for another 3 days, till Thursday at least.

Subdued rainfall to continue till Thursday/Friday in Maharshtra, Gujarat, Karnataka(including Bangalore). T.N.interior and coast will remain practically dry

And the offshore trough from Maharashtra coast to Lakshadweep area lay extended from the Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast.causing some rainfall along the west coast.

Forecast for Mumbai: Partly cloudy/sunny days with a few light rain showers on Tuesday and Wednessday. Days will be at 31c, and with rains only in parts of the city, not much inconvenience, except the humid heat, expected. Daily rain should be around 5-10 mms.