Monday, June 06, 2011

System remains close to Mumbai Coast:

AS-1 moves N/NE, and remains very close to the Konkan coast.. The system, when last reported, was off the Mah. coast, but as on 11.30 pm IST, it lies at 18.4N and 72.1E, just around 55 Kms West/South-West off Mumbai. At 12.30 am (Monday) it moved to 71.1E.

Against expectations, it has remained close to the coast for the last 3 days. With the help of an off shore trough from Mah. to Kerala, pulling up the SWM up the Konkan coast upto Mumbai. OLR maps, winds and other parameters turned favourable to monsoon advance suddenly in the last 48 hrs. In fact, OLR values have turned to less than 200 (highly favourable) up to the Gujarat coast and into S.Gujarat.

SWM has advanced up to Mumbai and the northern limit runs thru S.Mah and covers Karnataka.

Precipitated moderate thunderstorms all along the Konkan coast and Goa. Highest rainfall at Mapsa of 15 cms.
In Kerala, Chengannur received 20 cms, and Ammathy in Karnataka recorded 13cms.

It was a wet Sunday afternoon and evening in Mumbai. receiving thundershowers with S'Cruz measuring 33 mms and Colaba 17 mms till 8.30 pm Sunday night.

Monday with be cloudy with a shower or two in the fore noon. Increasing Thundershowers with gusty winds in the post noon/evening period. Rainfall amounting to around 25-30 mms could be expected.

Expecting SWM advance by Tuesday.

In Gujarat, though North Gujarat was hot with Deesa recording 46.5c on Sunday, and some the effect of precipitation was felt Vadodara.
But Saurashtra and Kutch are reeling under a severe heat spell. 10 year highs in Rajkot and Bhuj. Perfect report here on Askokbhai’s site

Bay sector remains very weak. With no significant development in the next 5 days, it seems there is no momentum to push the SWM into the NE states. The Bay has remined devoid of any system now for a very long time. We may just about see a weak low end of this week in the central Bay. May be on land by the week end but may not be of significant strength on hitting land.

1 comment:

NT said...

Rajesh, couple of points - all housekeeping. The Poll is no longer relevant, you need to put up a new poll. The links on the right seem to not have updated info. e.g. I clicked on 'Colour Image' link and it showed me an image dated 16th May 2011.

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