Global Warming is Only A Modest Problem

Global Warming is Only A Modest Problem

Human-forced global warming (also called "Climate Change" by some) is only a modest problem.   

The scientific facts are clear:

It is NOT an existential threat to humanity.   It is NOT a crisis.

*Extreme Weather, Enhanced by Climate Change, Is Causing Increasing Numbers of Deaths

You have heard the claim multiple times:   increasing extreme weather resulting from climate change is resulting in many more extreme weather-related deaths.

This is simply untrue.   Deaths from extreme weather (extreme heat/cold, hurricanes, extreme windstorms, flooding, etc.) are down...a LOT (see proof below).

Such deaths are down even though there are a lot more people on the planet.  

Why?   Much better forecasts allow people to get out of the way or prepare.  Many nations have invested in making themselves less vulnerable to severe weather--including some of the poorest.

Want an example?  In 1970, Cyclone (Hurricane) Bhola hit Bangladish and nearly 500,000 people died.

In 2020, a more powerful storm (Super Cyclone Amphan) hit virtually the same location, with only 133 deaths.

Severe storm deaths are profoundly down.....is this a "crisis"?

*Extreme Temperature Deaths Will Decline

There is a deep literature showing that cold waves kill far more people than heat waves.   For example, a 2015 article in The Lancet found 17 times more deaths from cold than heat (see figure from that article below).

Thus, global warming will REDUCE deaths from extreme temperatures. 

From Cliff Masters Blog

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13000 flights Cancelled, Power Outage as Winter grips U.S.

Cold Snap expected in U.S.

See World Weather News Page 

 Ice cover of Artic (Jan 2016) shown in a Satellite image..Though this winter was "Above Normal"..This Image and Recent Events speak in differently.. 
With the exception of the yellow line, the map was compiled from observations by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR-2) sensor on the Global Change Observation Mission 1st–Water (“Shizuku”) satellite, which is operated by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA).

The map above shows Arctic sea ice extent for January 2016. 
The yellow outline shows the median sea ice extent observed in 
January from 1981 through 2010, as determined from a sequence of NASA and U.S. Department of Defence satellites. 
The Ice , no doubt, a bit less than the "normal' Average Yellow line...about 7.5% below normal.
A preliminary analysis released by the National Snow & Ice Data Centre found that Arctic sea ice extent averaged 13.53 million square kilometers  during January 2016—1.04 million square kilometers (7.5%) below the 1981 to 2010 average.

The cap of sea ice over the Arctic Ocean is always changing. Each winter it grows dramatically, usually reaching its maximum in March. It melts just as dramatically each summer, reaching its minimum in September.

Other Recent Winter Extremes:
--Near the Artic Circle....Iceland...
3rd year in a row The city of Akureyri in North Iceland is seeing great snow accumulation for the third year in a row. This morning, residents woke up to 110 cm (3.6 ft) of fresh snow.Snow depth has not been greater since the winter of 1995-1996

--March 1st: Japan...Hokkaido faces worst blizzard in years.
Japan’s Meteorological Agency warned Hokkaido on Tuesday to brace for its worst blizzard in years.The agency forecast 40 cm (16 inches) of snowfall in the 24 hours until 6 a.m. Wednesday in the region.

--February 27th: U.S...Blizzard conditions force Chicago drivers to abandon cars

--February 25th:U.S....Record snowfall in Grand Rapids, Michigan

Wednesday’s 24th Feb.. 7.2″ snowfall set a record for the date in Grand Rapids. The city received a total of 11.2″ over two days.The heavy, wet snow caused power outages and problems throughout West Michigan.Here are a few of the more notable snow totals:
Comstock Park ………….. 12 inches
Marshall ……………………….11.8 inches
Greenville …………………… 11.5 inches
Kentwood …………………….11.3 inches
Grandville …………………… 11.2 inches
East Grand Rapids …….. 11 inches
Cannonsburg ……………….11 inches
Barry ……………………………..10.2 inche

Karnataka gets rains after a long break, ending 8.30 am on 03.03.2016

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Gujarat & adjoining south Rajasthan has become less marked

in mm (min 5 mm)

Kumsi - 90
Joladabka - 52
Tidagundi - 41
Hidkal Dam - 39
Kakhandaki - 35
Bidar - 34 
Pachapur - 27
Kannolli - 24
Gulbarga - 23
Rabkavi  - 20
Kamalapur - 20
Sulepet - 20 
Kalaburgi - 20 
Billur - 14
Singasandra - 12
Mahalingapur - 10
Humnabad - 9
Sedam - 9
Kalaburgi - 8 .
Bommanhalli - 7
Athani - 6
Bellandur - 5
Varthur - 5

3rd day of Rains in Maharashtra ending 8.30 am on 03.03.2016

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Gujarat & adjoining south Rajasthan has become less marked

in mm (min 15 mm)

Doodhganga - 47
Bhandane - 43
Asane - 37
Kusumba - 35
Pusegaon - 34
Chakur    - 34
Sawargaon    - 32
Mangrul    - 32
Fulwal    - 30
Nesari - 29
Waki - 29
Ahemadpur - 28
Murum - 26
Gategaon - 26
Solapur - 22
Kingaon - 23
Shi. - 23
Belkund - 21
Udgir - 21
Dewani - 21
Mukati - 20
Peint - 20
Chandgad - 20
Andhori - 20
Itkal - 20
Ambulaga - 19
Govindpur - 19
Shelagi - 19
Kudashi - 19
Ambeghar - 19
Tirhe - 18
Wadval - 18
Makni - 18
Deshing - 17
Kumbhi - 16
Savarde - 16
Ausa - 16
Salgara - 16
Renapur - 15
Walandi    - 15
Jalkot  - 15
Tuljapur - 15
Naldurg    - 15
Dajipur - 15
Pune (Pashan) - 15
Ner - 15
Raymoh - 15

2nd day of Rains and Hailstorms in Maharashtra, ending 8.30 am on 02.03.2016

The trough in the lower level easterlies from Konkan & Goa to East Rajasthan now seen as an upper air cyclonic circulation over Gujarat & adjoining south Rajasthan and extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Jambhali - 74
Parali - 54
Urmodi - 54
Kanher - 50
Pachgani - 47
Shendurjana - 47
Manora - 42
Yelgaon - 39
Ranjani - 39
Risod - 35
Medha - 35
Malewadi - 32
Bhatghar - 30
Magrulpir - 30
Tarli - 23 
Lonar - 20
Asti - 20
Kati - 19
Udgir - 19
Andhali - 18
Ambeghar - 18
Sangola - 18
Bhor - 17
Thoseghar - 17
Kalmodi - 17
Kasarsai - 16
Kandhar - 16
Sinnar - 16
Niphad - 16
Buldhana -16
Nigade - 15
Mukhed - 15
Tandulwadi - 14
Madukali - 14
Nagewadi - 14
Mhaswad - 14
Banganga - 13
Kalmodi - 12
Kas - 11
Bamnoli - 11
Tarali - 11
Javli - 10
Dahiwadi - 10
Phaltan - 10
Shahwadi - 10
Sonebonge - 10
Walwan Ghat - 10
Mahagaon - 10
Umnerkhed - 10
Nira Devghar - 10
Nanded - 10
Ambawade - 10
Belewade - 10
Jor - 10
Wathar - 10


Karnataka gets rains after a long break, ending 8.30 am on 04.03.2016
=========================
The upper air cyclonic circulation over Gujarat & adjoining south Rajasthan has become less marked

in mm (min 5 mm)

Kumsi - 90
Joladabka - 52
Tidagundi - 41
Hidkal Dam - 39
Kakhandaki - 35
Bidar - 34 
Pachapur - 27
Kannolli - 24
Gulbarga - 23
Rabkavi  - 20
Kamalapur - 20
Sulepet - 20 
Kalaburgi - 20 
Billur - 14
Singasandra - 12
Mahalingapur - 10
Humnabad - 9
Sedam - 9
Kalaburgi - 8 .
Bommanhalli - 7
Athani - 6
Bellandur - 5
Varthur - 5

Wither Global Warming ?

2015 v/s 2014....Antarctic Sea Ice Extent

2014

2015 

In 2015, sea ice coverage was greater than average around the Antarctic Peninsula, the Weddell Sea, and the Wilkes Land coast, according to an analysis by the National Snow & Ice Data Center. The Ross Sea and the Indian Ocean-facing coast had below average sea ice.

2015: 18.83 million square kilometers (7.27 million square miles).Maximum on 6th October. 

2014: The second image shows the annual maximum on September 20, 2014, a record-high extent of 20.14 million square kilometers (7.78 million square miles). 

Scientists think the strong El Niño could have had an effect on Antarctic sea ice in 2015. El Niño causes higher sea level pressure, warmer air temperature, and warmer sea surface temperature in the seas off west Antarctica—all of which affect the sea ice distribution.

“After three record-high extent years, this year marks a return toward normalcy for Antarctic sea ice,” said Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

Sea ice atop the Southern Ocean around Antarctica reached its annual maximum extent on October 6, 2015. The extent was less than the previous three years, which brought consecutive years of new record highs.

 From NASA Earth Observatory.

Some more Interesting Readings and Weather Phenomena...

Hole-Punch Clouds over the Southeast U.S. recently..