Friday, September 22, 2023

Nagpur Downpour....Cloudburst on 23rd between 2.30 am -3.30 am...98.5 mms at city AWS Railway station
24 hr Rainfall till 8.30am of 23-9-23
Nagpur city 176 mm, Sonegaon AP 117, Khapri 65

Upper Trough Southwards from BB-9 ( also seen in adjoining image put up yesterday) created heavy rainfall patches 

Mumbai Colaba 77 mms till 8.30. Saturday 23rd
Scruz 1.5 mm.
Uneven distribution is likely was mentioned on no proper streamlined westerly flow rains

Posted 22nd Afternoon:

* Low Pressure BB -9 now over Jharkhand.

* Monsoon Axis in Normal Position 

* Water Vapour showing significant reduction from extreme NW India, and the Jet Streams reversing to anti Monsoon seasonal directions estimated for 24th...

Indicative of  Monsoon Withdrawal commencing from West Rajasthan from 26th September..Normal Date 17th September



Fairly frequent rain showers with thunder this weekend, 23rd/24th.,some persistent rains in some areas, with thunder. Expect mist and reduced visibilities at times.

As on 22nd, the season's rainfall total is 2855 mms: {+632 mms} (Scruz), & 2163 mms{+162 mms}(Colaba).

With 8 days till month end, Mumbai Scruz has a chance of crossing the 3000 mms (120") mark this season. (IMD counts seasonal rains upto 30th September.)

This has been achieved 9 times since records began:

1) 1954: 3451.6 mms

2) 1958: 3759.7 mms

3) 1983: 3025 mms

4) 2005: 3289.2 mms

5) 2010:  3327.9 mms

6) 2011: 3154.8 mms

7) 2019: 3669.6 mms 

8) 2020: 3686.8 mms

9) 2021: 3163.5 mms

Figures Compiled by Vag. Abhijit Modak.

The Mumbai lakes and dams level reported at 6 am on 21st September 2023 is 1422269 ML (98 %).

Last year on 21st September 2022 was 1424647 ML (98 %).

In the year 2021 on 21st September 2021 was 1438850 ML (99 %).

Normally Monsoon withdrawal date for Mumbai is 8th October..As always maintained repeatedly, this year Mumbai  Monsoon will persist till at least 10th October.

Thursday, September 21, 2023

Current El Nino..2023.

Many queries are cropping up on the "El Nino" topic ...Firstly, what is El Nino?

Simply put..An over heating of a tongue of water off the South American Coast.

Caution: All El Nino years may not necessarily mean a weak Monsoon, as seen in the chart below 👇

ONI & El Nino: Characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.

 La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. 

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

El Niño Advisory ...How is it shaping up ?

*El Niño conditions are observed.

* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Niño. 

*El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than a 95% chance through December 2023-February 2024).*

The Indian Summer Monsoon 2023 was partially affected by the current developing El Nino. 

The monsoon started off weak, with  June being -9%  July, impressed with +13% . August saw erratic activity, with -36% for the month.

So far this September, surplus is +9%,

All India Monsoon is at -7%.  Maybe a better picture will emerge by this month end...for the overall Monsoon Season. 

Wednesday, September 20, 2023

Region wise Monsoon Report till today 20th September:

The monsoon started off weak, with  June being -9%  July, impressed with +13% . August saw erratic activity, with -36% for the month.

So far this September, surplus is +9%,

All India Monsoon is at -7%.  Maybe a better picture will emerge by this month end...for the overall Monsoon Season. 

Now,  with multiple weather systems , BB-8, BB-9, UAC over Rajasthan, more showers across the country are expected this month.

The ongoing rainfall this month, is a blessing for the Summer crops, following the driest August in over a century. 

This year, the withdrawal date is delayed....Normally the Monsoon starts its reversal from Rajasthan on 17th September.


Maharastra Monsoon upto 20th...👇

Mumbai: Next few days the current pattern will continue with occasional showers, some with thunder. Weekend forecast on Friday...

Interior Maharashtra   Many areas in Vidarbha, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra regions likely to get moderate rain/thundershowers over next 3 days. 
Rainfall may not be uniformly distributed
 Ch. Sambhajinagar can see moderate rain/thundershowers tomorrow 21st and Friday 22nd. 
25-45 mm total rainfall possible in these 2 days.

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

 19th September..evening 

*Low pressure BB 9, forms over NW Bay of Bengal.

*Rains to increase gradually over Odisha, Chattisgarh in the next 48-72 hrs. 

*BB 8, Cyclonic circulation continues to prevail over SW Rajasthan. Heavy rains to continue over parts of Kutch and Rajasthan. 

*Monsoon Trough remains active

Compiled by Vagarian Gokul

Monday, September 18, 2023

 Today's [ 18th] rain in ,Gujarat 

BB 8 continues in Gujarat...

Visavadar (junagadh) reported 185mm during last 4 hours ending 10am

And Kutch...😳

Sunday, September 17, 2023

Posted 17th Night:

BB-8 continues its Westward track pouring extremely heavy rains in Rajasthan, M.P. and Gujarat.👇

Ahmedabad,Bharuch and Vadodara heavy rains were pre warned in Vagaries "Latest Snippet " yesterday.

However, the "pull effect" Westerly winds towards the system from the Arabian Sea was weak (not enough gradient).Closely spaced isobars mean strong winds; widely spaced isobars mean lighter wind.
The Westerlies can strengthen a little bit as the location of the Low shifts towards Kutch

Hence the rainfall over North Konkan (Mumbai) was not as per our expectations.
Mumbai did not receive the expected amount of rains due to poor Westerlies. We expected around 40 mms cumulative this weekend, but averaged around 30 mms between North and South Suburbs.

Monday 18th, will get some regional heavy showers. From 19th -22nd ( Rest of the week), we can expect showers in irregular intervals, not steady, in parts of city. Sunny  periods in between.
This pattern of rains will continue through the week.

Pune: The coming week will be partly cloudy with light rains in parts of Pune.

Sambhajinagar: Light to moderate rains will continue for the next 4 days. There will be no danger of fields getting waterlogged. Slight increase from 22nd.
Rainfall this season till today : Phulambri 384 mms ( 78%), Waddod Bazar 358 mms ( 73%)
संभाजीनगर : पुढील 4 दिवस हलका ते मध्यम पाऊस सुरू राहणार आहे. शेतात पाणी साचण्याचा धोका राहणार नाही. 22 पासून वाढ होण्याची शक्यता. या हंगामात आजपर्यंतचा पाऊस : फुलंब्री 384 मिमी (78%), वडोद बाजार 358 मिमी (73%)

Bharuch: After getting good rains ,( Netrang 52 mms, Bharuch 35 mms), the rainfall intensity will decrease from the coming week...18th onwards.
ભરૂચ: સારા વરસાદ પછી, (નેત્રંગ 52 મીમી, ભરૂચ 35 મીમી), વરસાદની તીવ્રતા આગામી સપ્તાહ...18મીથી ઘટશે.

Magnificent site..Sardar Sarovar  Overflowing...see here

Saturday, September 16, 2023

Friday, September 15, 2023

Posted 15th Night

MumbaiWetter days, but 

NO Weekend ALERT 

The Low is moving West as anticipated. 

So, an increasingly wetter weekend for Mumbai. Frequent rain showers on Saturday, Sunday abd Monday. Cloudy and cooler.

Around 150 mms this weekend could be a cause of some inconvenience in vulnerable areas. 

Pune: May not get the full effect of the System. Lighter rains this weekend. 

Thursday, September 14, 2023

Chart compiled by Vag Gokul 👆

Posted 14th  Night

Another active phase of Monsoon begins for Maharashtra 🌧️⛈️.

Mumbai will see rains increasing from 16th September, with heavy rains likely from 16th to 19th September (Ganesh Chaturthi). The total combined rainfall in these 5 days can be 150-200 mm for Mumbai region. 

Places in Palghar and parts of Thane district can see heavier rain.

Pune: Monsoon feel to return with light rain expected during next 4-5 days. Some areas can get moderate showers. Overall, cumulative rainfall can be between 20-40 mm. 

Moderate-heavy rain in parts of north interior Maharashtra districts (mainly Nagpur, Amravati, Akola, Buldhana, Jalgaon, Dhule, Nandurbar, Nashik) over next 3-4 days. 

Ghats of Maharashtra to receive heavy rain during next 4-5 days as westerlies winds from the Arabian Sea strengthen.


South and east regions of Gujarat (Surat/Valsad/Bharuch/Baroda) can get moderate to heavy rain over next 5 days. 

If the low BB-8 tracks till east Gujarat (which is possible), then rainfall can be very heavy in some areas (above 200 mm in 5 days).

Saurashtra to see moderate rain, with some heavy showers for Eastern parts.

Ahmedabad region to get moderate rain, mainly during 17th-19th September.


Medium range forecasts showing Arabian Sea may persist with westerly winds into last week of September while Bay may start showing reversal earlier

 13th Morning..heavy rains from BB 8 in Odisha 

The region in Mumbai which got rains on Thursday afternoon 

*3 HOURS (FROM 3.30 PM TO 6.30PM ON 14/9/23)* 

Vile Parle Fire Stn 62
S Ward Office (Bhandup) 52
Vikhroli Fire Station 50
SWM Santacruz Workshop 59
Kurla Fire Station 47
Virar 15mm
Vasai 22mm

Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Posted 12th Evening:

New Low...BB-8 developing in Bay....

Mumbai: The Monsoon is playing " Come & Go" with Mumbai. 

*June with low rainfall,  

* A drenched July

*A long dry spell in August, causing concern and worry..and then a wet spell, bringing hope and smiles.  

 *September: A wet beginning and a dry spell, and now, another dry, hot spell ...

But...this Monsoon, it will continue with its unpredictable games.

Another wet spell is expected over Mumbai from 16th ~20th..bringing good rains, and  we may see all the lakes overflowing. 

The Mumbai lakes and dams level reported at 6 am on 12th September 2023 is 97 % of the total. 

The quantum and intensity is still unsure, but will be able to get some inclination as the Low crosses the coast on 13th.( Maybe in excess of 100 ~150 mms between 16th ~20th.But we can ascertain that later).

As said earlier in Vagaries, a good spell in September should not be a reason to worry for Mumbai  !


Interior Maharashtra is in for good bountiful rains. 

From 16th, for the next 3/4 days, Vidharbh, Marathwada, and Madhya Maharshtra will receive the much required rainfall for the standing crops. 

Sambhajinagar District will receive good rains from 16th..with cumulative at least 70 -80 mms next 4 days.

Marathwada Dams and Reservoirs:👇

Jayakwadi at 32.42% of its full capacity, compared to 97.24% at the same time last year. The dam is the primary source of water for irrigation, drinking and industrial use in eight districts of the Marathwada region.

Majalgaon Dam - Beed. At 12.69% of its full capacity.

Lower Manar Dam - Nanded. At 55.21% of its full capacity


Rainfall may even creep into Gujarat region (Bharuch) and parts of Eastern Saurashtra from 18th.

Friday, September 08, 2023

Outlook for Saturday 9th Sunday 10th

Mumbai: Passing showers. Shorter periods.Rain intensity lower than last 2 days. Today and tomorrow combined may see 40-60 mm average. Few places could get a little heavy rain.

Thursday, September 07, 2023


*12 HOURS (FROM 5AM TO 5PM ON 7/9/23)* 


Dadar Fire Station 80

Haji Ali Pumping station 71

Vagaries (Willingdon) Club 70

Frosberry Reserviour 57

D Ward Office (Grant Road) 65

Municipal Head Office 61

Colaba IMD 43 ( 9 hrs)

*Eastern Suburbs*

M East Ward Office (Deonar) 163

Marol Fire Station 98

Scruz IMD 94 (9 hrs)

S Ward Office (Bhandup) and

Deonar (Vagaries Pvt) 90

Vikhroli Fire Station 84

Chembur Fire Station 80

*Western Suburbs*

Malwani Fire Stn 128

Chincholi Fire Station 99

Goregaon 99

R Central Office (Borivali Stn) 90

K West Ward Office (Andheri W) 88

 Vasai 12 hr rainfall 117mm

Virar 12 hr rainfall 118mm

Forecast update from 7th -10th September - Monsoon turns active!

Increase in rain across Maharashtra & Mumbai from Janmashtami as mentioned earlier!

Mumbai: Rains increasing Mumbai region. Some moderate-heavy rains expected during next 3-4 days (cumulative 4 days total upto 200 mm average in MMR region, some places can see higher amounts). 

Pune: Light to moderate rain/showers likely. Around 30-40 mm likely over next 3-4 days. Some places may receive higher rain. 

North Madhya Maharashtra districts of Dhule, Nandurbar, Jalgaon, parts of Nashik district can see some moderate to heavy rain (above 100 mm in 3 days for some areas). 

Marathwada: Overall, moderate rain likely in the districts of Marathwada (up to 30-50 mm average in 3-4 days). Northern districts (some areas in Ch. Sambhajinagar and Jalna) may see some localized heavy rain (60-80 mm total in 3-4 days). 

Vidarbha: Moderate rain with heavy in few places mainly in northern districts of Nagpur, Bhandara, Amravati, Akola, Buldhana (rainfall can vary between 60-100 mm total in next 3-4 days)

Gujarat: Moderate rain likely in Navsari-Bharuch stretch across Surat,Valsad regions. Baroda region can also see moderate-heavy  rain upto 60-100 mm by Sunday 10th September. 
Ahmedabad region and Saurashtra may only get light rain. 

West Madhya Pradesh and eastern Gujarat border regions can receive heavy rainfall of 80-120 mm total by Sunday 10th September. 

Wednesday, September 06, 2023

Posted 6th September

The rainfall from BB-7 as on 6th September 

After the BB-7, the low pressure , the retreating process  of the monsoon will commence from extreme NW India.

Thereafter, weather systems, if any, will not be perusing into parts of  Central, Western and Northern India. 

The normal withdrawal date of monsoon from the western parts by the end of the life cycle of this monsoon low. will be coinciding.

Normally SWM starts withdrawing from extreme NW India from 17th September. 

This year Mumbai withdrawal of Monsoon can be expected around 10th October.

Kutch by 18th September....Gujarat around 1st October.

Monday, September 04, 2023

Posted 4th August..

Monsoon turning active - much needed rains expected for most of the country in the coming days!

{ Mumbai: 
*Rains to increase from around Friday 8th September in Mumbai region.
*Moderate rain, occasional heavy showers likely over the upcoming weekend of 9th-10th September. Some rumbles of thunder possible.

Mumbai Lakes & Water Storage 

The Mumbai lakes and dams level reported at 6 am on 04th September 2023 is 1312578 ML (91 %) of the total.

(About 9 months Stock). If on Getting > 350-400 mms in remaining days of Monsoon, it should end the season on full storage. Monsoon expected to persist in Mumbai till 10th October. 

Last year on 04th September 2022 was 1417217 ML (98 %) of the total.

In the year 2021 on 04th September 2021 was 1316898 ML (91 %) of the total.}

Pune: Light rain likely from 8th September onwards, bringing back the Monsoon feel. Some showers can be moderate intensity. Days can remain pleasant below 30C. Overall 10-15 mm cumulative rainfall is possible from 7th-9th in Pune region.

Maharashtra forecast for upcoming week: 

Some rain/thundershowers likely to continue in south Madhya Maharashtra and southern districts of Marathwada during Monday 4th and Tuesday 5th September. 

Rainfall will increase from Thursday 7th September as low BB-7 moves into Maharashtra. 

BB-7 forecast by IMD GFS
Kokan and Goa: Rainfall increasing from 8th September, moderate rain likely over the weekend, with some places getting heavy showers. 

North Madhya Maharashtra districts like Nashik/Jalgaon/Dhule can receive moderate rain with heavy in some areas during 7th-9th September.

Vidarbha: Vidarbha districts can see some moderate rain with heavy at times from 6th to 9th September. Average total rainfall in Vidarbha region can be around 60-80 mm in these 3 days. Very beneficial for crops. 

Marathwada: Moderate rain with heavy at a few places is expected from 7th-9th September. Many districts can get up to 50-80 mm of rain in 3 days. Very good for standing crops. 
Ch.Sambhajinagar - Moderate rain is likely from 7th-9th September. Cumulative rain in these 3 days can be 50-70 mm.

More details on Maharashtra by Wednesday 6th September. 

Rest of India 

North Interior Karnataka to get moderate-heavy rain/thundershowers during 4th-5th September. 
Rainfall to increase in Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Madhya Pradesh as BB-7 starts tracking west. 

Kerala: Heavy rain in southern parts of the state for 4th-5th as offshore trough develops with strong westerly winds. Northern parts of the state will see rain increasing from 5th September. Rainy week ahead for the entire state.

Coastal Karnataka: Rainfall to increase from 5th/6th September. Moderate-heavy rain is likely. Southern parts of the coast and Ghats can get heavy rain. 

Gujarat forecast also by Wednesday 6th September

 Low Pressure Forming in NW Bay on 5th September.  Will bring the Monsoon trough South....and revive Monsoon in Eastern, Central India and West Coast of India....posted 3rd night. 

All India at -11% deficit today.

Can good/moderate September rains keep it below -5% at least.

Monsoon in Central and Western India can extend into October. 

Saturday, September 02, 2023


(BMC) in millimeters

1-9-23 11PM TO 2-9-2311 AM

*12 HOURS*

Haji Ali Pumping station 100

D Ward Office (Grant road) 83

Malbar hill 78

Colaba Pumping Station 73

Byculla Fire Station 66

Frosberry Reserviour 62

Memonwada Fire Stn 54

 Saturday morning  ..RainPatch lashing Mumbai ..Should reduce by noon

The cause...UAC over N.Konkan 

Friday, September 01, 2023



 Rainfall for the season till August End.

Mawsynram  8333 mms

Cherrapunji  6745 mms

Top 6 places in Maharashtra with the heaviest seasonal rains till 31/08/2023 below in mm:

1. Amboli: 5994

2. Patgaon: 5973

3. Davdi: 5566

4. Tamhini: 5540

5. Mahabaleshwar: 5058

6. Jor: 5046

Matheran:4753 mms.

Credits: IMD, RTSFROS & Flood Control Dept

Compiled By: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

1st September...Quick response to Vagaries' report on Bengaluru  .

89 mms recorded  !


Our blog reproduced in MidDay

Thursday, August 31, 2023

Monsoon this August...2023


Mumbai had a dry August After a nearly record rainfall in July. By end of  July, Mumbai Santacruz had received 92% of the seasonal rainfall.

In August, Santacruz measured 177 mms of rain , 31% (normal 562), and Colaba 112 mms 24% ( normal 472 mms).

So, though SantaCruz normally gets 24% of the seasonal rain in the month of August,  this year received 13% of the seasonal total in August. .


The Mumbai lakes and dams level reported at 6 am on 30th August 2023 is 1308021 ML (90 %).

Last year on 30th August 2022 was 1404404 ML (97 %).

In the year 2021 on 30th August 2021 was 1276377 ML (88 %).

40 days of Monsoon still remain. 

Pune: Pune received only 42 mms in August,  25% of the normal August rainfall. 

Pune region dams and reservoirs are today at 69.72%.

All Maharashtra dams and reservoirs are at 64.37%

Maharashtra August Rainfall: Yellow = Deficit, Red = Large Deficit

Bangaluru: The driest August on records since observations began. 12.4 mms in 2023, lowest record 20.6mms in 1885 !

It will be listed as one of the 'driest' months since 1901. There will be a deficiency of about 36% of rainfall in August 2023.

August 1899 has been the driest August,  at -40.4%, since reliable records began in 1871

Compilation of recorded by Vag.Vineet👇

After 1900.. During the period 1901-2023: Top 10 driest August for India

1. 2023: 162.7 mm ( -36%)
2. 1913: 189.8 mm
3. 2005: 190.1 mm
4. 1920: 190.8 mm
5. 2009: 192.5 mm
6. 2021: 196.2 mm
7. 1993: 198.8 mm
8. 1979: 199.3 mIm
9. 1902, 1905: 202.6 mm
10. 2015: 204.2 mm

During the period 1901-2023: Top 10 wettest August for India
1. 1926: 348 mm
2. 1958: 328.7 mm
3. 1933, 1963: 328.2 mm
4. 2020: 327 mm
5. 1988: 325.1 mm
6. 1976: 319.5 mm
7. 1970: 319.3 mm
8. 1931: 318.9 mm
9. 1916: 318.8 mm
10. 1955: 317.2 mm

For the period 1901-2022, August rainfall in the country is decreasing at the rate of 0.7mm/decade.

This year, throughout the month, break monsoon conditions prevailed for nearly 24 days. 

It is the month of September that holds the key to making or breaking the year. Although this month has a modest average of 167.9mm rainfall, it is considered the most volatile to change fortunes.

September assumes  importance. If the month receives its normal rainfall or even a modest shortfall of about 10%, the season can avert the drought scare.

Any deficiency, in excess of 15% rainfall will push it closer to yet another El Nino-driven ‘drought’.

1st September..
( August Weather will be posted at 1pm)

September Monsoon outlook for Maharashtra - an Overview for first 2 weeks of September

*Weak Monsoon rains in 1st week  of September.
*Rains likely to increase from Janmashtami!

First week of September:
*Monsoon remains mostly in break phase for the first week of September, with only patchy rain/thundershowers expected across Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha 
*Hot and humid weather across the state.
*Eastern parts of Vidarbha can receive some moderate showers after 4th September.

Second week of September:
*Monsoon revival is expected during this week. 
*Most of Vidarbha region districts can get moderate rain during this period. 

*Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra districts can also receive light to moderate rainfall. 

*Konkan region including Mumbai can get moderate rain. 

This is a brief summary of the expected weather. Depending upon the formation of certain weather systems, the rainfall intensity may increase over parts of Maharashtra

Wednesday, August 30, 2023

 Vagaries was honoured by being invited to see the new Laboratory Facilities at IITM,Pune...29th August ..2023

We thank IMS and all the Scientists for the warm welcome.

Special thanks to Shri Milind, Shri Sikandar, Dr Mahapatra,Dr.Dixit, Shri Harish Chaudhari, Shri Ameya, Shri Bhupendra, Shri Ingle, Ms.Archana Rai, Shri Sandeep and Shri Goswami who personally took time to explain.

Nagpur Downpour.... Cloudburst on 23rd between 2.30 am -3.30 am...98.5 mms a t city AWS Railway station 24 hr Rainfall till 8.30am of 23-9-2...