Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Very heavy pre-monsoon rains at central /south konkan ( Ratnagiri/ Sindhudurg/ Kolhapur western ghats ) ..31 May 2017

• Lanja 283 mms 

(refer table below..min 65 mms ..source mahaagri)

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

South West Monsoon Sets in over South Kerala on 30th May...

Pradeep John promptly gives us the Rainfall Amounts in Kerala on Monsoon Setting ...Today the Maha giants have joined the party and the readings will be put by evening.

Monday, May 29, 2017

Posted 29th May Night:
Posted 29th May:

As we see Severe Cyclonic Storm "Mora" move towards Myanmar. the effective pulling of the SW winds will advance the South West Monsoon into Kerala on 31st May. 
The South West Monsoon may not show substantial progress beyond Coastal Karnataka till 5th June.

Mumbai: A few passing light showers on Tuesday 30th May. Development of some thunder clouds on Wednesday 31st May. Not much rain chances on 1st June.
Monsoon expected in Mumbai on date given by Vagaries in Monsoon Watch, around 11th/12th June.

Turbat in Pakistan recorded 53.5c on 28th May, equalling the Highest temperature recorded in Asia (May). Moin Jo Daro had recorded 53.5c on 26th May 2010.

29th May readings of maximum Temperatures: Turbat 53°C, Sibbi 51°C, Lasbella 49, Panjgur, Padidan, Dadu, Jacobabad 47°C, Dalbandin, Nokkundi, Moenjodaro, Hyderabad, Larkana 46°C°C.

29th May 2017,  record temperature of 47°C observed in Panjgur. Earlier record was 43.5°C on 26th May, 2010.

26 May 2017 highest temperature ever recorded in May in Iran, 50.5C at Rasht.

To clear some confusion in our comments section, here are the world's highest temperature records...
54.0C Death Valley, eastern California,north America, 30 june 2013

54.0C Mitribah, northwest Kuwait,21 july 2016 

See world records here (scroll down).

Friday, May 26, 2017

Posted 26th May morning:

Our expected BB 2 has formed in the Bay. Due to this formation the South West Monsoon has advanced into Sri Lanka ( vagaries' expected date was 27th).
Ratnapura in Sri Lanka received 349 mms.

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Posted 24th Night:

> Monsoon Likely to advance into Kerala on 31st May...

> UAC prevails in SE Bay and West Arabian Sea....

> Mumbai likely to get light rains on Sunday 28th and Monday 29th May (Pre Monsoon)....


Nice encouraging message to me for our Vagaries received from Maximiliano Herrera (Thailand) ....the first part is ref to my correspondence with him for recent  Bilaspur reading...second part is what i refer to as encouraging...

Quote:-" Thanks. It seems it was dismissed , but I will be waiting for more information (also in the case it is dismissed if it was a temporaly problem or the station needs to be fixed or moved).

I see that thanks to your project Vagaries of the weather, many new Indian amateaurs are getting very skilled and they are a useful "tool" in overwatching Indian weather statistics and filling the gaps in the cases IMD might make a mistake or something.
Since you are the pioneer of the Vagaries, I think your contribution has been fundamental.
Now I am receiving many messages from Vagaries members exchanging information and ideas.
A big thank from the Meteorological Community for your relentless work.


My Reply to Him:-

"Thanks a lot for the kind words Max. Weather is a passion, and after starting Vagaries, we have around 400 members from India, Pakistan, Nepal and US. 
I am so happy that youngsters have taken a very keen interest in weather and studying the daily readings. The younger people are very alert, and immediately point out if something is different or out of Normal.
The younger members have become smarter than their teacher :-)
I also thank you Max for your constant support and help in correcting and updating our records. Your contribution to weather record keeping is amazing ! I still remember when, around 7/8 years back we both were tallying city by city records for many Indian Cities. We had our differences in figures, but that was for the good and proper checking.
Thanks for supporting vagaries and its young members (Vagarians as they are called).Wishing a long relationship between Max and Vagaries !

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Posted Tuesday 23rd Night:
A UAC has formed in the South East Bay...
Places above 44c on Tuesday (India):
1Titlagarh 46.5 °C
2Chandrapur 45.2 °C
3Bhawanipatna 45.0 °C
4Nalgonda 45.0 °C
5Ramgundam 45.0 °C
6Bilaspur 44.9 °C
7Bramhapuri 44.9 °C
8Wardha 44.8 °C
9Nagpur Sonegaon 44.7 °C
10Vijayawada / Gannavaram 44.7 °C
11Nizamabad 44.5 °C
12Daltonganj 44.4 °C
13Rentachintala 44.4 °C
14Mahabubnagar 44.2 °C
15Adilabad 44.1 °C
16Angul 44.1 °C
17Kurnool 44.1 °C
18Pbo Raipur 44.1 °C
19Rajnandgaon 44.0 °C

Posted Saturday 20th May Night:

A Low pressure (BB-2) is likely to form in the South East Bay of Bengal ( 10N, 90E) by the 23rd of May. As per the ensuing sea and pressure conditions, BB-2 is likely to strengthen in the next few days. Chances of cyclone development is 25% ( Low). But system as a strengthened force will track NW towards Odisha/North Andhra.

In the meantime, the off shore trough off the Southern region of West Coast of India will get more prominent from the 24th on wards, thereby increasing coastal rains in Kerala and Coastal Karnataka.

Friday, May 19, 2017

East Coast under heat / humid wave ..makes Rajasthan heat feel pale in comparison ( 19 May 2017 )

It's that time of the year again.. Heat/humid wave has gripped east coast (specially Andhra / Tamilnadu) during past 4 days.
It's either extremely hot and drier winds from the west (temps of 47 c)  or supressingly humid breeze from the bay ( heat index over 55 c) .
Nights are also hot and humid with temps above 30 c ( Ongole min 34 .1 c ) .

Machilipatnam was 47 c / 31 c yesterday and 40 c / 32 c today (heat index 54 , even at night heat index was above 40 c )

Bhubaneswar/Visakhapatnam AP ..39 c /29 c yesterday with heat index of 55 c

Gopalpur(by the sea) was 36 c / 28 c yesterday with suppressing humidity ( heat index approaching 55 c )

Chennai AP was 44 c / 30 c yesterday with heat index of over 50 c

Kolkata AP was 39 c / 27 c today with heat index of 47 c

>>Vagarians / readers ..please share more information on the subject 

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Monsoon Watch --4 ...Quantum Analysis

Quantum Analysis is evaluated for the amount of summer monsoon rainfall over Indian monsoon region during June- July....

Forecasting Methods adopted for the Indian Monsoons:

Gowarikar(1989) developed parametric and multiple power regression (MPR) models with 15 predictors for LRF of AISMR, which were later modified in 1991 to include 16 predictor parameters. The parametric model is qualitative and indicates the likelihood of the monsoon rainfall to be excess or deficient.
Thapliyal (1990) evaluated the relative performance of multiple regression, and Navone and Ceccatto (1994) have used 'feed-forward' neural network technique for the prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall with two predictors (500 hPa ridge location and Darwin SLP tendency from January to April).
The results of a recent work by Krishna Kumar (1997) indicate that a single component accounts for about half of the total variance in the predictors

Most of the studies on LRF of Indian monsoon rainfall were based on empirical or statistical techniques till 2010. IITM, Pune has recently implemented the state-of-the-art coupled climate model, the Coupled Forecasting System (CFS) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA. These statistical techniques range from simple correlation analysis to advanced procedures.

Vagaries' View Point:

Vagaries leans on, and believes in the "Gowarikar Method" with 16 parameters. The results of this old but proven method has been successful. For Vagaries' forecast and analysis made in the "Arrival and quantum Monsoon Watch" series, I combine a few of them along with Dynamical models for a personal analysis and estimate.
15 initial parameters from the months March, April and May are used to analysis and forecast the simulation of Indian monsoon rainfall during June to October. These initial conditions were carefully selected  to span the evolution of both the atmosphere and ocean.

We have to take into consideration most of the 15 parameters (Gowarikar Method) before making an assessment, and these have to be analysed one by one. The prominent among the 15 are , ENSO, March temperatures of North India and East Coast, Himalayan Snow cover till March and SOI to name a few.
Of-course, I am not going to take each and every one of the 15 here, but, derive at an estimate on these basis and on the new model developed. I hope readers of vagaries trust that I have tried my best to estimate as accurately as possible.

Calculating the amount of rainfall, region wise, is of utmost importance, as SWM contributes to almost 80% of the annual total rainfall over India.
In this article, Quantum Analysis is evaluated for the amount of summer monsoon rainfall over Indian monsoon region during June and July.

The 500 hpa parameter is of importance in April. The mean latitudinal location of the 500 hPa ridge along 75°E in April over India, first identified by Banerjee (1978), is considered to be one of the most important predictors. The mid-tropospheric anticyclone over southern India migrates from 11.5°N in January to its northern most position of 28.5°N during July.
From October, the ridge starts shifting back southward. A more Northward location indicates better performance of the monsoon and vice versa. It also showed that the negative correlation of the March ridge was more dominant with the monsoon rainfall of the peninsular India, while the positive correlation of the April ridge was more dominant with the monsoon rainfall of Northern India.

ENSO factor in arriving at the rainfall amount is also of importance. The interface is the sea surface: that is where the transfers of water (evaporation/precipitation)
and momentum occur. An accurate coupling of the fast atmosphere to the slow ocean is essential to simulate the ENSO, which in turn can simulate the interannual
variability of Indian monsoon. Unfortunately, getting an accurate, or near to accurate forecast of the ENSO for the next 2 months is difficult, with no guarantee of accuracy or performance surety.

We see neutral ENSO conditions persisting. But, there is a possibility of  Neutral event persisting till August. Now, this would result in normal Monsoon condition from June thru  August.( If no "Break Monsoon" occurs).
After August, a 50-50 chance of a weak El Nino.

We depend also on other parameters.
Normally, Pulses from the Eastern Pacific area, that is S.China sea, would mean depressions and systems originating from the Bay. 'In Situ" systems and systems from the Far east would contribute to the rainfall to the east Coast thru Central India and into Gujarat and even into Sindh (Pakistan). No El-Nino, would mean no stopping  these pulses, and in fact not encourage WDs into coming down south, (more South than normal).
This may persist till  June, and then rapidly the flow of systems should increase from Bay in July.

The performance of Vagaries' Monsoon Watch Quantum Analysis is evaluated for the amount of summer monsoon rainfall over Indian monsoon region during June to SWM withdrawal in 2 phases. (June/July and August/September).

Why in 2 phases ? Because, I believe it is impossible to give actual Quantum forecast now (In May) for sometime in September...that is 120 days ahead !). I am not competent to give a forecast 90 - 120 days in advance, 
so Monsoon forecast will be
1)...For June and July and
2)... August and September ..this is tentative and will be published in 2nd week July.

A) First 15 days of June sees 
i) Monsoon advancing from Kerala thru upto Central India, and into NE States and West Bengal.
ii) Heat ( Normal to above Normal) in Northern India, and Pakistan.
Monsoon advances into Central India and North India between 20th - 30th June.
iii) Monsoon moves into Pakistan around 1st - 12th of July.

B) Mid June to July end, we can see normal rainfall and progress of the SWM in all of  Sub-Continent regions. Neutral conditions in the Pacific Oceans will send a few "pulses" to create "in situ" systems in the Bay, and the first 2 months could see around 3/4 noteworthy systems traversing the Sub continent. WDs will be few, hence, we can expect a few systems from Bay to track towards Central and Northern India, resulting in good rains in the plains of N.India and Northern Pakistan regions..and fairly good above normal rains in Nepal.

Thus, June and July rains should be normal for these months.

This estimate is based absolutely on the situation as it shows and stands today.
Things, if and when they change (drastically) will be posted and Vagaries readers will be kept well informed, of any variation in the forecast.
These are my personal views, and should not be depended upon commercially or otherwise.  They may differ from other models.

Monday, May 15, 2017

South West Monsoon Advances into the Nicobar islands and South Andaman Seas on 14th May 2017... 3 days ahead of the Vagaries' forecast.
Car Nicobar recorded 6.7 cms of rain till 8.30 am Sunday and another 2 cms in the day on Sunday 14th.

Kota Rajasthan recorded a minimum of 33.2c, the warmest night in India this season.

Mumbai will be partly cloudy with very humid conditions....

Delhi will see very hot days on Monday and Tuesday with the mercury touching 43/44c.
Hot days in U.P. with the highest touching 46/48c next 2 days.

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Mumbai will get thunder heads developing in the Eastern skies on Friday 12th and Saturday 13th. Light rains likely in Eastern Outer Townships and Panvel region.
Pune likely to get thunder and rain in some parts of city on Friday12th and Saturday 13th. Thunder showers will occur in Mahableshwar on these days.

Muscat will get some showers on Friday and Saturday with very squaly winds.

Bikaner (India) saw a Low of 32.3c on Wednesday.

Tuesday, May 09, 2017

Monsoon Watch -3... 2017 (Additional)...May 9th 2017.
Monsoon Arrival Estimate.

The arrival date is calculated seeing today's position.Further from today, we presume the normal rate of progress/developments. This initial estimated dates are subject to some changes, and will be finalised around mid-May, when the puzzle pieces get better arranged.
(Dates in brackets are the normal dates of arrival).

As of today, there seems to be a slight delay in both, Arabian Sea and Bay Branches of the Monsoon. There continues to be a doubt on the timely arrival of the Monsoon in the Bay branch.

Arabian Sea Branch: The LWD parameter is strong, and developed well. Otherwise, There is not much improvement in some of the parameters, there is still much to be achieved, and most parameters are still lagging behind time, and are -ve.
The Arabian Sea branch, now affected by the "getting organised" Somali current winds and the equatorial winds at the equator. They can recover provided the winds regroup fast.

On these calculations, Vagaries would estimate the Monsoon to reach Maldives around the 22nd of May 2017 (20th May), Sri Lanka around 27th/28th of May (25th May).
Kerala by the 2nd/4th June (1st June).
Hence, maintaining and presuming the normal rate of progress, As the Seasonal Low strengthens, Monsoon could "slide " up the coast to be in Goa should get Monsoon rains by around 8th/10th June (5th June). NE States can also see Monsoon resume around that date.

 Mumbai by 12th/14th June (9th June). Pre Monsoon thunder showers could start from around 3rd/4th June 2017.

Bay Branch: A weak Western Disturbance  was active the Northern regions of the sub continent.

Bay branch needs to wait a few days for the the pulses from the East in the Bay to resume for Low formations. 

SWM should hit South Andaman Sea around 17th.May (12/15th May), and rest Andaman Islands by 20th May 2017.
Generally moves up (normally) the Bay at a sustained speed, and Kolkata should see Monsoon arrival by the 11th/12th of June.

We stop at this initial progress, and work out further region wise progress at a later date  (as is the usual practise in Vagaries' MWs).

These Dates are worked out and estimated as per my personal calculations and may not be used for commercial purposes.The dates are not binding on anyone and no responsibility is taken if used for any purposes.

A reader had asked me how Vagaries' Estimate compared with the actual Dates...well, here are some yearly comparisons from MW-3 of that year (Estimated in Early May of that year).

Estimated:  4th/5th June  v/s  Actual : 8th June
Goa (Southern Touch): Estimated: 10th June v/s   Actual: 10th June
Mumbai: Estimated: 14th June   Actual: 20th June.

Kerala: Estimated  3rd/4th June  v/s  Actual 5th June
Goa: Estimated 10th June  v/s Actual  8th June
Mumbai: Estimated 13th/14th June  v/s  Actual  12th June

Kerala: Estimated  31st May  v/s   6th June  Actual
Goa: Estimated 5th June  v/s   11th June  Actual
Mumbai: Estimated  9th June  v/s  15th June  Actual

Kerala: Estimated 3rd June  v/s Actual 1st June
Goa: Estimated  8th June  v/s Actual 3rd June
Mumbai: Estimated  12th June  v/s Actual 8th June.

Friday, May 05, 2017

Monsoon Watch – 3 (part 1)...2017 .....4th May
Further Analysis of the parameters as discussed in MW-1,MW-2.
Position as on 4th May :

1.Cross Equatorial Winds :
Let me explain, that the winds on crossing the equator break into 2 branches. i) gushing into the Arabian Sea, and ii) moving into the Bay of Bengal. 
wind flow on 4th May 2017

i) In the Western sector Southern Hemisphere, winds are just picking up speed and hitting the East African coast, but no proper re-curving is seen. To get a defined Somali Current, we need a proper re-curving Northwards/North-East of the winds, on the Kenyan coast. The current SST off the Somali Coast is 26 c (above normal),while the required SST in first week of June is 19/20c. (Required to form masses of Monsoon clouds in the warm central Arabian Sea).

ii) In the eastern sector, in the Bay Branch, the cross equatorial winds are currently haphazard and disorganised. In the Bay along India coast , the winds turn Southerly, due to a weak High Pressure in the Bay.
The winds hitting Sumatra coast are not Westerly (as required), and also need to gather strength soon.
We prefer the Bay Branch to be better organised, as the normal date for SWM to hit the South Andaman Sea is 15th May.

Mascarene high
 pressure zone in the South Indian Ocean.
Main High reading of 1025 mb and other highs of 1021/1022 mb are currently observed between Madagascar and Australia.

The "Power House" of the Monsoon winds is lower in strength (should be 1032 mb), for this time of the season.


 2. Seasonal Low: 

The NW plains heating picked up initially, and laxed again, as WDs started streaming in.
After the early summer onslaught, the heat decreased considerably over the North and west subcontinent between MW-2 and MW-3 period.

Over Northwest India, the max and min temps fell by 5 -10 c from the levels seen during MW-2 (averaging max 46 c / min 30 c ).
After recording first ever 50 c temp in April(19th) in Asia, Larkana (Sindh) is currently hovering at 41.5 c.

Past 7 days anomaly -
North ,west ,central India was in the normal range.

                    Min temp was in the normal range.

The seasonal Low, as a result has weakened considerably. Had shown good progress during MW 2 when it was 998/1000 mb.

The pressure in the core region (Thar Desert / Sindh) is just touching 1006 mb. (In 2014 was 1004 mb, 2015 was 1000/1002 mb , 2016 it was at 1002 mb during this time). 

As mentioned, it normally should reach a low nadir of 994 mb in June in the Thar Desert, and with 1008 mb in the South Arabian Sea, a perfect gradient is created to attract the south -west winds towards the coast.
Core low pressure

 After a lull, the core low formation region (Thar desert) has started to heat up again. Barmer recorded 42.8 c on 3rd May 2017.Delhi AP recorded 41.1 c.

The highest max temperature (45.2 c) over the subcontinent on 3rd May 2017 was recorded at Banda (UP) and the highest min temperature (30.6 c) on 4th May 2017 was recorded at Barmer (Raj).
After a lull, the minimum temperatures have also increased over the subcontinent and have just started touching the 30 c mark .

3. ENSO: This year also, like last year, we also base our observations on the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI).  An attempt is made to monitor ENSO by basing the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) on the six main observed variables over the tropical Pacific. 

These six variables are: sea-level pressure (P), zonal (U) and meridional (V) components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature (S), surface air temperature (A), and total cloudiness fraction of the sky (C). (Negative values of the MEI represent the cold ENSO phase, a.k.a.La Niña, while positive MEI values represent the warm ENSO phase (El Niño).The MEI is computed separately for each of twelve sliding bi-monthly seasons (Dec/Jan, Jan/Feb,..., Nov/Dec). 

Negative values of the MEI represent the cold ENSO phase, a.k.a.La Niña, while positive MEI values represent the warm ENSO phase (El Niño).

The updated (Feb-Mar) MEI is at -0.08 (in Jan-Feb was -0.056), for a slightly decreased ranking.

30 day SOI has fallen further after MW2 and is now at  -5.8.
90 day value is -0.3 ( sustained SOI of -7 to 7 is neutral. Above 7 is La Nina, and below -7 is El Nino ).

The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. ONI has increased marginally after MW2 and latest value is 0.1 .
( ONI of -0.5 to 0.5 is neutral. Above 0.5 is El Nino, and below -0.5 is La Nina).

Indicator: ENSO Neutral (should be watched for El Nino development in August/September).

4. The Bay had hosted a pre-monsoon low during mid April. 
As discussed, we should normally see a low sometime after the 15th of April.
But there has been no development after that. As on today, this region still maintains a luke warm response to the formation of a quick low. The pressure is anything but low, and currently a weak high is observed. 

What is needed now is a pulse from the Far East. But,currently there is no storm or low pressure in the Philippines’ Seas.

A strong MJO would hasten the favourable formations and lows, with enhanced precipitation.
The propagation of the MJO to the Indian ocean is uncertain over the next two weeks.

Another factor, which helps the winds gain strength, and bring more moisture into the Indian landmass, is the sea temperatures on both sides of the Peninsula. Optimum (warm) temperatures will hasten and create more clouds, and help in faster forming of the lows from the Bay.
Currently, the only sort of +ve sign is the above normal temps (30 c) of the seas surrounding the peninsula. But sea temps (29 c) near the South Andaman Sea have fallen below normal currently.

We prefer the Bay parameters to show fast progress, as the normal date for SWM to hit the South Andaman Sea is 15th May.
 Sea Temp Anomaly

Indicator: -ve

5. ITCZ / LWD :
To bring the existing SE winds above the equator (as SW) , the ITCZ should move northwards. Currently it is near the equator. During late April , it oscillated between equator to 5N.
A LWD in the central peninsula region "looks after" the moisture content in the interior areas, and prepares the atmosphere with the humidity required. In reality, this LWD remains till June, in variable phases, and finally merges with the Monsoon trough (axis)/ITCZ  when the ITCZ moves towards the Sub Continent.

Currently, the line of wind dis-continuity is located as a trough, through the peninsula, from Madhya Maharashtra towards Kerala. It is giving adequate precipitation in the peninsular regions. Outbreaks of pre- monsoon thunder showers which are expected normally in the southern states and South Maharashtra, are taking place.

Thunderstorm activity in Southern Tibet is seen to be picking up.

Indicator: Normal

6.Jet Streams :
The 200 hpa Jet streams over the subcontinent is the additional parameter to be watched from MW-3 .
The jet streams are to be followed as the westerly jet core shifts to the north and easterly jet stream is formed, over the course of late summer, progressively from south to north of the subcontinent , heralding the progress of south-west monsoon over the subcontinent.

Currently are weak south-easterly, south of 8 N latitude.
They are required to strengthen to easterlies at those latitudes in the coming days, for heralding the SWM to the South Andaman Sea.

During late April, westerly jet core was located between Lat. 21°N & Lat. 26°N with the wind speed varying from 65 - 100 kts around 200 hPa. The highest wind speed of 100 kts was recorded over Lucknow at 292 hPa on 26th April. 

The westerly jet core shifts north of the Himalayas during the southwest monsoon season, as the jet streams turn easterly over the subcontinent.

Indicator: Normal

So, overall, we can summarize as:
MW-3 (1)
1) Cross Eq.Winds
2) Seasonal Low
4) Bay Low
6) Jet Streams
Slightly -ve

*But, situations can change fast, and by the time we discuss the next  MW, some factors can suddenly become +ve or -ve. So, MW discusses and follows the developments as they emerge, and discuss the parameters as is where are.
Monsoon Watch should not be used/depended upon commercially or otherwise. Monsoon Watch Series may differ from other models.)

Looking at the current parameters, there seems slight delay in the South West Monsoon arrival dates for Andaman and Kerala as of now. 

But would like to wait for another 4 days to see any changes in parameters, so MW-3 Part 2 will be published then (Brief write up with estimated dates of SWM arrival).

The quantum of rainfall expected will be analysed in the subsequent MW-4, which will be ready for publication on 16th May.

Special Thanks to Vagarian Rohit Aroskar for his contribution to this article.