Saturday, June 25, 2011
Hi, after a Mahableshwar "break",
The current weather Map/Charts of the sub-continent reflects a typical monsoon chart, with the monsoon trough running from Rajasthan thru U.P. and Jharkhand into the Bay, and an eastward extension of the trough running into the NE states.
This is much better than having a " break monsoon" situation , where we see the trough running in a further north position along the Himalayas. And, this could very well have been the scene today with a weak MJO situation in force. With BB1 having embedded itself in the trough, the trough line has remained a bit to the southward position.
Expecting the weak MJO phase to remain till July 1 st week. In vagaries, we had discussed this phase and anticipated its arrival after the fizzling away of BB1.
But, in the current scenario, rainfall will be persistent along the axis, that is east Rajasthan, northern M.P, adjoining U.P. and Jharkhand. Good rainfall in the NE states.
I observe the off shore trough to be more prominent south of Goa. Showers could be expected along coastal Karnataka, and to a lesser extent in south Konkan and Goa.
What's in store for the next few days, the rest of June ?
It may well happen, that with the BB1 remnants "raining out", the monsoon trough, or axis, could start moving to the north, and settle down into the Himalayan foothills. Then, the whole rainfall scene shifts north, more northwards than the areas mentioned above. This could well be the scene with no momentum and push from either of the seas. In such a situation, substantial increase in rainfall in Nepal and adjoining U.P. plains, and Utterakhand hills.
Movement of monsoon rains westwards into Sindh (Pakistan) almost ruled out in this period,
Till the supressed MJO persists, it may not be possible for any of the seas on either side to bring up a system. The current SOI is +3, after maintaining an average of +18 in the last 5 months.
BB2 is just a dream now, and could be a not reality before 4thJuly, at least. That is presuming the MJO phase to "give in" after that date.
A ray of hope would be to expect a pulse, to move west from the current depression "Haima", now over North Vietnam. It could sail into the bay, and if it does, it could be as soon as by the 29th.
Mumbai will to have this miserable hot humid weather thru the weekend. a short duration shower to two may give on the spot releif, only to get more stuffy once the sun is out. Meaningfull rains increament not in next 4 days at least.
For those interested, Pics and videos of Mahableshwar trip on inter-actions page.
Posted Friday 25th afternoon: Parameters wise South West Monsoon has started its Withdrawal phase from North West India and Punjab. Rain...