Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Posted 23rd October Night:
After hesitation, finally South West Monsoon withdraws from the country and allows North East Monsoon winds to set in ...

The Satellite image below shows and indicates the South West Monsoon withdrawal winds over India. And also indications of NE upper winds along TN coast and Southern Peninsula indicating advance of North East Monsoon.



-The SWM onset is well defined, and follows a well coursed out Northward progress. And can be discerned with reasonable accuracy on charts.
For the NEM, it is not so.
In fact, on many occasions, there is no clear indication between the withdrawing SWM and setting NEM. Often one tends to merge into another.
So, setting a date for the commencement of NEM is difficult, and sometimes not possible.

-During the NEM, an occasional burst of cold air from the Siberian High develops a low pressure systems over the Equatorial regions of the South China Seas. These systems move slowly westwards thru Sarawak/Eastern Malaysia coast, and remnants of these cross over into the Bay and form depressions.

Also browse thru the article analysing the NEM over the years in Vagaries blog of 23rd September 2016 here   

Reproduced Image from Vagaries blog of 15th October 2015.


Saturday, October 21, 2017

Cooling Starts in North India Plains:
TOP 10 LOWEST MIN TEMP IN CITIES OF PLAINS TODAY(23/10/17).
-----------------------------------
(1) Una: 13°c
(2) Jalandhar: 13.9°c
(3) Kapurthala: 14.3°c
(4) Bhatinda: 14.5°c
(5) Ferozpur: 14.5°c
(6) Muzzafarnagar: 15°c
(7) Hisar: 15.2°c
(8) Chandigarh: 15.2°c
(9) Bhiwani: 15.4°c
(10) DelhiPusa(IARI): 15.7°c....

from Navdeep Dahiya

It rained 19.2 mms in Pune on Sunday 22nd October, and 0.3 mms in Hyderabad.


Posted Saturday 21st Night:

BB-13 crossed into Odisha and moved N/NE and then East into Bangladesh on Saturday. Will move East and fizzle out.

While crossing southern Bengal some 2 day rainfall amounts courtesy "Weather of Kolkata"



Mumbai will be partly cloudy on Sunday 22nd. Warm. 
Monday clearing and sunny...warmer.

Light rains likely in South Madhya Maharahtra and parts of North Telengana. Light rains in some parts of Pune and Hyderabad on Sunday.

Monsoon will withdraw further southwards from the line shown in post below...

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Posted Tuesday 17th October Night:
As per Vagaries, Monsoon has withdrawn from Mumbai and  Maharashtra, Monsoon line shown in attached image as Red Line.
Blue Line is Axis Line.
Hot Divali days....Days will get hot in Mumbai on Wednesday and Divali day.

BB-13, now located at 13.7N and 87.5E, remains of strength as of morning report, at 1002 mb.. Likely to strengthen  and track towards  South Odisha coast. At current status, likely to cross Odisha coast on around 19th as a depression. Heavy rains in coastal Odisha on 19th October. Bhubaneshwar will see increase in rainfall on 19th.
BB-13 can track NE after crossing land .


See Massive October rains in Maharashtra put up by Rohit  (Below) 

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

17 OCT 2017

An extended Thunderstorm (TS) season at Maharashtra results in October toppers..

Keep tapping the blog for 'Vagaries exclusive' statewise seasonal toppers, to be published soon.. 

24 hrs Highest October 2017 rains ..222 mms (Kitwade)

1 to 17 OCTOBER 2017 TOPPERS :

  • KITWADE (Sahyadri Ghats,Maharashtra) .. 543 mms
  • VILVADE  (Konkan , Maharashtra) .. 534 mms
  • PHONDA   (Konkan , Maharashtra) .. 508 mms
Posted Tuesday Morning:
BB-13 now positioned and located at 14.4N and 87.3E. as a low at 1000 mb. As mentioned, likely to strengthen and move NW initially. Will be headed towards Andhra Coast initially.Western segment likely to see precipitation from 18th. 

Mumbai: Monsoon winds likely to change in the next 24 hrs, and humidity levels will fall. Monsoon withdrawal signs clear now. No rains expected Tuesday.

Sunday, October 15, 2017

Posted 15th October Night:
Bengaluru City:
South West Monsoon started poorly in Bangalore City...The first 75 days from 1st June to 15th August brought only 129 mms of rain...The next 60 days till 15th October saw 44 wet days.Incessant rains over the past 2 months has totalled up 1660 mms ( till date) of rain in Bangalore City in 2017. 
Bangalore AP shows a total of 1330 mms this year till date...
Graph of Airport of last 90 days: 


This ( 1660 mms) is the Highest ever for Bangalore City in a calendar year. Normal annual is 980 mms.....October this year to date has recorded 386 mms (281 mms above normal).
This is due to the extended period of the SWM in Bangalore...and we have two and a half months of NEM still to come !

The earlier record was 1608 mms set in 2005 mms. Before that it as 1349 mms in 1916 . Lowest annual total ever is 544 mms in 1913. However the wettest ever October was in 1956 with 522 mms.

However, we find rainfall decreasing to almost no rain after Monday 16th for a week at least.

Mumbai:
Mumbai Santa Cruz touches 3000 mms ...Jan-May 4 mms, June-September 2946 mms Octber tilll date 52 mms...Total 3002 mms.( For records see Vagaries Extreme).

Sunday 15th  saw some sharp showers in the Northern Suburbs of Mumbai, with Mulund recording 44 mms and Kandivali 33 mms. 

This could possibly be the end of the seasonal rains for Mumbai City. Expecting Monsoon current and strength to end from Monday 16th October (Mumbai City and surroundings). From Tuesday/Wednesday, winds will change to N/NE.

SWM likely to withdraw from North Konkan, Vidharbh and North Madhya Mah.and Eastwards.

Friday, October 13, 2017

See Author's Note below this article

Pune got Thrashed with massive TS today on 13 October 2017
Pune gets it's first century of the 2017 in fag end of Monsoon season  !!

Violent Massive Thunderstorm struck Pune with multiple lightning strikes and gusty winds !!

As per Vagarian Shreyas, TS started around 1.45pm so Technically Pune got massive 100mm in 1hr between  1.45pm to 2.45pm period so almost cloud burst like rain it was !!

But as IMD records hourly in AWS & 3 hourly manually so few mms got bifurcated , so statistically Pune got 89mms in one hour between 1.30pm & 2.30pm  & rest 12mm in next 3hrs till 5.30pm. 

So totally Pune IMD observatory recorded 101mms rainfall till 5.30pm today.

Some more rainfall amount from Pune Suburbs till 5.30pm today:

Pashan 68mm
Talegaon 58mm
Katraj 23mm
Yerwada 21mm


Some pics of Pune rains which flooded the city today evening 





Image Source: Twitter
Author's Note:
Most thunderstorms occur in the late afternoon. By this time of day, the sun is beginning to set. The orange hue is caused by the same process that causes the vivid colors at sunsets. Shorter wavelengths of light (blue) are scattered quickly, leaving only the yellow-orange-red end of the spectrum.The moisture particles are so small that they can bend the light and alter its appearance to the observer. These water droplets absorb red light, making the scattered light appear blue. If this blue scattered light is set against an environment heavy in red light—during sunset for instance—and a dark gray thunderstorm cloud, the net effect can make the sky appear yellow or even faintly green.
It's a pretty reliable sign of a thunderstorm,
Now, Yellow Orange and Red are the last 3 colours of VIBGYOR. Sometimes, rarely in Mumbai, we see a greenish tint also. The next colour in the spectrum. ( I have seen it once in Mumbai many years ago).
Scott Bachmeier, a research meteorologist at the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at UW–Madison: " Particles in the air scatter light. In the day, the particles scatter more violet and blue light, but our eyes are more sensitive to blue light — that’s why the sky appears blue.
Thunderstorms, (which can be the home of tornadoes), usually happen later in the day, when the sun is approaching the horizon. That creates a reddish tinge in the sky, as any fan of sunsets knows. But light under a 12-mile high thundercloud is primarily blue, due to scattering by water droplets within the cloud. When blue objects are illuminated with red light, Bachmeier says, they appear Yellow/green.
A green cloud “will only occur if the cloud is very deep, which generally only occurs in thunderstorm clouds.” 

Also Understand: Thunderstorms are a great way for the atmosphere to release energy. When warm moist air meets colder drier air, the warm air rises, the water vapor condenses in the air, and forms a cloud. As the water vapor condenses it releases heat, which is a form of energy. A large amount of the thunderstorm's energy comes from the condensation process that forms the thunderstorm clouds. As the thunderstorm progresses, eventually the rain cools the entire process down and the energy is gone.



Thursday, October 12, 2017

Posted 12th October Thursday Night:

1. This Weekend, South West Monsoon begins withdrawal from the previous Line shown and withdraws Southwards into South Gujarat and  Maharashtra. 

We may announce Monsoon withdrawal from South Gujarat, Complete M.P, North Madhya  Maharashtra, North Konkan, Vidharbh, Marathwada. North Chattisgarh, Jharkhand on Monday 15th.( We will not wait for the 5 dry days as per IMD Norms).

2. A Potential Low Pressure is likely to form in the Bay. Forming around the 15th of October, it will be at 15N location on forming. Likely to intensify and move West initially.

Mumbai: On Friday 13th, Thunder showers may pop up in pockets in Madhya Mah, and along the interior North Konkan region and around all the Outer Townships of Mumbai. A thunder cell can drift over parts of Mumbai on Friday/Saturday. Rains may cease from North Konkan and Mumbai from Sunday. 
We may announce the Monsoon withdrawal on Monday 15th. .( We will not wait for the 5 dry days as per IMD Norms).
Pune: Thunder Showers in parts of Pune on Friday and Saturday. Rains decrease and season changes from 15th October.

Surat and Aurangabad: Rains almost over for the season from this weekend.
Bangalore: Thunder Showers continue for the next 3 days, around 25-30 mms /day.
Kolkata: Light to moderate rains this weekend. Up to 10 mms /day.

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

11 Oct 2017 .. AN EXTENDED THUNDERSTORM(TS) SEASON AT MAHARASHTRA

HIGHEST TOTAL OCTOBER 2017 RAINS (TILL 11 OCT)..
  • KITWADE (SAHYADRI GHATS) 503 mms
  • KHAMGAON (RAIGAD) 415 mms

Nasik region received heavy TS activity yesterday .. Kopergaon 92 mms , Lasalgaon 77 mms..
Mangalvedha (Solapur) 175 mms ,Shirgaon (Ratnagiri) 98 mms ,Jat(Sangli) 54 mms
Mumbai lakes received 30 to 60 mms ..

Maharashtra (including Konkan , Mumbai) is currently witnessing one of the longest thunderstorm seasons (from 10 September)..
Expected to continue till Saturday 14 Oct 2017..

Many 100+mms (IN 1-2 HOURS) TS events with electrifying squally thunderstorms have been reported during the past one month throughout Maharashtra including Mumbai ..
Eg. Kitwade(Ghats) 222 mms , Mangalvedha(Solapur) 175 mms and Borivli (Mumbai) 161 mms

Mumbai Lakes have received good TS rainfall in October till now (total 100 to 155 mms ) ..The result is, currently the lakes have maintained 30 Sep 2017 water levels (99%) till now .. 

At Mumbai , Vagaries Club has recorded total 99 mms rains in October TS till now .. Mangalvedha(Solapur) has recorded 236 mms, Badlapur has recorded 215 mms..Abhona (Nasik ) has recorded 211 mms


(Thanks to Rajesh sir, Shivkumar, Abhijit, Abhishek Apte)

Sunday, October 08, 2017

Bonanza Information for Mumbai Readers From Rohit Aroskar on his Page
Exclusive from Rohit Aroskar..know your city ( Mumbai) weather better..
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Past 18 year averages of Mumbai (western suburbs)..

Posted Sunday Night 8th October:

On Sunday see an upper air trough forming East-West along the North Maharashtra region. An UAC may form embedded in the trough on Tuesday.
Akola may see moderately heavy rains on Monday and Tuesday.
Aurangabad got 32 mms on Sunday evening, and showers may continue for 2 more days in the evenings.
As the system moves West, Rains likely in Surat and Valsad on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Mumbai: Thunder showers lashed Mumbai on Friday , Saturday and Sunday. Sunday Mulund and Thane regions saw the heaviest rains with Thane measuring 53 mms till .30 pm and Mulund (Mumbai) measuring 47 mms.
Monday/Tuesday: Partly cloudy and sunny days. Thunder clouds developing may precipitate light to moderate rains in some parts of Mumbai City. Rains will be less than the rains experienced in the weekend in Mumbai. Rains may increase on Wednesday 11th.
Pune: Monday will see the skies getting cloudy post noon. A thunder shower likely in some parts. Tuesday will see a heavier thunder shower in Pune and surrounding areas.
Kolkata3/4 days more...Showers to continue till Thursday.

South West Monsoon Withdrawal Line as on 8th October:

Wednesday, October 04, 2017

Posted Thursday Night 5th Night:
Rains likely this weekend in Maharashtra:  (Farmers need to adequately cover their cut/ripened products in Aurangabad and Akola Regions: Already informed them).

Mumbai: Change in weather from Friday as the rains may appear in Mumbai City on Friday Night...and showers/thunder showers on Saturday and Sunday.  
Pune/Aurangabad : Thunder showers on Friday and the weekend...cooling down the weather after a hot Thursday at 34c..Aurangabad had a mild shower Thursday evening.

South West Monsoon Withdrawn Line (Vagaries' views): 



Monsoon withdrawal early from West and North-West and Delayed from Central and Peninsula. Winter strength and intensity  is not linked to date of SWM withdrawal time/date, but winter winds do set in after the withdrawal and axis moves Southwards, encouraging proper NW winds and WD effectiveness.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted Wednesday Night 4th October:

Rains likely this weekend in Maharashtra:  (Farmers need to adequately cover their cut/ripened products in Aurangabad and Akola Regions: Already informed them).

Mumbai: Thursday, like Wednesday will be hot and sunny. Mumbai sees a weather change this weekend. Showers or thunder showers are likely in Mumbai and all outer townships on Saturday and Sunday.
Pune will see thunder showers this weekend. 

Heavy showers likely in Aurangabad this weekend. Moderate showers, though not very heavy, showers in Akola this weekend.

These rains from Saturday will move Northwards along Coast, maybe covering Valsad and upto Surat
More and update of forecast for this weekend on Thursday 5th 

Tuesday, October 03, 2017


 
TOP 25 DISTRICTS BASED ON ACTUAL RAINFALL


(1-6-2017 to 30-9-2017)

(mm)




DISTRICT ACTUAL NORMAL DIFF +/-
EAST KHASI HILLS (meghalaya) 5374.4 4621.8 16%
LUNGLEI (mizoram) 4246.5 1866.3 128%
RAIGARH (maharashtra) 3652.3 3117.7 17%
UDUPI (karnataka) 3591.3 3759.7 -4%
CHIRANG (assam) 3580.7 2296.1 56%
RATNAGIRI (maharashtra) 3419.7 3261.5 5%
EAST GARO HILLS (meghalaya) 3394.3 1671.5 103%
LOWER DIBANG VALLEY (arunachal pradesh) 3294.5 1073.4 207%
THANE (maharashtra) 3219.5 2434.1 32%
EAST SIANG (arunachal pradesh) 3103.6 3008.4 3%
DADAR & NAGAR HAVELI (UT) 3050.7 2162.3 41%
PALGHAR (maharashtra) 3020.5 2420.2 25%
JALPAIGURI (west bengal) 2962.4 2757.9 7%
KOKRAJHAR (assam) 2950.0 2826.4 4%
SUBURBAN MUMBAI (maharashtra) 2946.3 2231.6 32%
SINDHUDURG (maharashtra) 2910.2 3021.8 -4%
NORTH GOA (goa) 2740.7 3154.9 -13%
DAKSHIN KANNADA (karnataka) 2663.7 3351.6 -21%
BONGAIGAON (assam) 2648.5 2296.1 15%
KASARGOD (kerala) 2644.3 3007.5 -12%
KARIMGANJ (assam) 2640.6 2147.9 23%
DARJEELING (west bengal) 2575.0 2440.3 6%
VALSAD (gujarat) 2546.4 2150.0 18%
KOZIKOD (kerala) 2521.6 2603.1 -3%
UPPER SIANG (arunachal pradesh) 2504.0 2558.8 -2%








BOTTOM 25 DISTRICTS BASED ON ACTUAL RAINFALL


(1-6-2017 to 30-9-2017)

(mm)




DISTRICT ACTUAL NORMAL DIFF +/-
HISAR (haryana) 247.9 325.1 -24%
GURGAON (haryana) 243.0 472.3 -49%
KARAIKAL (pondicherry) 238.0 293.1 -19%
BHIWANI (haryana) 227.0 348.5 -35%
JAISELMER (rajasthan) 226.1 158.4 43%
MANSA (punjab) 220.7 334.8 -34%
TIRUNELVELI (tamil nadu) 212.7 142.4 49%
BIKANER (rajasthan) 212.5 228.7 -7%
RAMANATHAPURAM (tamil nadu) 211.2 149.3 41%
HANUMANGARH (rajasthan) 210.6 252.5 -17%
SANGRUR (punjab) 209.6 436.8 -52%
SRINAGAR (jammu and kashmir) 208.2 184.3 13%
PULWAMA (jammu and kashmir) 205.2 151.4 36%
KINNAUR (himachal pradesh) 180.1 264.2 -32%
TARN TARAN (punjab) 167.0 336.8 -50%
KUPWARA (jammu and kashmir) 162.3 253.2 -36%
SIRSA (haryana) 152.9 242.1 -37%
GANGANAGAR (rajasthan) 147.5 201.4 -27%
FATEHABAD (haryana) 137.8 283.0 -51%
LAHUL&SPITI (himachal pradesh) 137.6 458.2 -70%
BADGAM (jammu and kashmir) 134.4 186.4 -28%
TUTICORIN (tamil nadu) 105.5 74.9 41%
FIROZPUR (punjab) 59.8 352.3 -83%
KARGIL (jammu and kashmir) 47.0 49.7 -5%
LEH AND LADAKH (jammu and kashmir) 32.6 39.6 -18%














source IMD

Saturday, September 30, 2017


MONSOON REPORT (01-6-2017 TO 30-9-2017)  
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 30-9-2017) 841.3 mm
SEASON +/- -5.21%


Maharashtra ghat area seasonal rainfall:


Maharashtra &Goa coastal region seasonal rainfall:


Mumbai MMR seasonal rainfall : (data by Abhijit Modak)


(All maps are prepared by Tejas Baxi)

ALL INDIA SUBDIVISIONAL RAINFALL FIGURES:

REGION EAST AND NORTHEAST INDIA
SUBDIVISION ACTUAL    NORMAL DEP +/-
Nagaland Mizoram Manipur Tripura 1870.7   1496.9   25%
SHWB & SIKKIM 2039.8   2006.2   2%
GANGETIC WEST BENGAL 1133   1167.9   -3%
BIHAR 936.8   1027.6   -9%
ASSAM & MEGHALAYA 1614.5   1792.8   -10%
JHARKHAND 978.8   1091.9   -10%
ARUNACHAL PRADESH 1572.3   1768   -11%
REGION  NORTHWEST INDIA    
SUBDIVISION ACTUAL    NORMAL DEP +/-
WEST RAJASTHAN 365.6   263.2   39%
JAMMU & KASHMIR 545.4   534.6   2%
UTTARAKHAND 1199   1229.1   -2%
EAST RAJASTHAN 566.1   615.8   -8%
HIMACHAL PRADESH 720.7   825.3   -13%
PUNJAB 384.9   491.9   -22%
HAR. CHD & DELHI 345.8   466.3   -26%
EAST UTTAR PRADESH 648.4   897.6   -28%
WEST UTTAR PRADESH 531.1   769.4   -31%
REGION  CENTRAL INDIA      
SUBDIVISION ACTUAL    NORMAL DEP +/-
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH 646.3   477.5   35%
MADHYA MAHARASHTRA 852.5   729.3   17%
KONKAN & GOA 3206   2914.7   10%
GUJARAT REGION 995.3   914.7   9%
MARATHWADA 642.4   682.9   -6%
ODISHA 1051.7   1149.9   -9%
CHHATTISGARH 1039.4   1153.3   -10%
WEST MADHYA PRADESH 738   876.1   -16%
VIDARBHA 731.5   954.6   -23%
EAST MADHYA PRADESH 795.8   1051.2   -24%
REGION SOUTH PENINSULA    
SUBDIVISION ACTUAL    NORMAL DEP +/-
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY 414.1   317.2   31%
RAYALASEEMA 506.1   398.3   27%
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH 662.8   581.1   14%
LAKSHADWEEP 1108.3   998.5   11%
N. I. KARNATAKA 522.9   506   3%
S. I. KARNATAKA 670.3   660   2%
A & N ISLAND 1526   1682.5   -9%
KERALA 1857.4   2039.6   -9%
TELANGANA 657.4   755.2   -13%
COASTAL KARNATAKA 2596.3   3083.8   -16%
source  IMD