Thursday, August 17, 2017

Posted Thursday Night:

A UAC has formed off the Odisha coast, and the expected Low pressure, BB-7,  ( as estimated in  post of  13th Night  ) is likely to form there by 19th August.
We can expect the Monsoon axis to slide Southwards in the next 24 hrs. The BB-7, will then track along the Telengana/Vidharbh/North Maharashtra route from the 19th onwards.

Meanwhile heavy rains expected in Odisha and Telengana on 18th and in Telengana and adjoining Vidharbh on 19th/20th. Akola region can expect Good showers upto 20-25 mms/day on Saturday and Sunday
The much needed rainfall to Marathwada will occur on 20th . Heavy showers expected on Sunday and Monday in the region including Aurangabad. Cool day expected in Aurangabad on 20th.
The system gains a bit, and tracks across West M.P. and Northern Gujarat after 20th.

A bit early to say, but it seems the South West Monsoon withdrawal from the Western region and NW region will start earlier than normal date this year.

Weekend Estimate:
Mumbai: Weekend will be partly cloudy, with warm/hot days around 32c. Expect some sharp showers in some areas on Sunday. Rainfall maybe around 10-12 mms on Sunday. 
Outer townships around Panvel may get some heavy showers ( Maybe thunder) on Sunday.

Hyderabad will get showers, some heavy on Saturday and Sunday. Very cool days expected.
Delhi NCR: Days will get hotter by a couple of degrees on Friday/Saturday. Expected to be around 38/39c. Very warm nights...The isolated thunder shower likely on Sunday.
Jabalpur can expect thunder showers this weekend. Expecting some moderate showers. Jabalpur has received 689 mms of rain this season till 17th August. This is 113 mms short of normal. (14% deficit).
Good rainfall expected in Indore after Saturday for 2 days.
Weekend almost dry in Saurashtra.

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Bangalore gets freedom from seasonal deficit in just single day on our Independence Day !

Happy Independence day and Happy Shri Krishna Janmashtami/Dahi Handi to all Vagarians

Bangalore's actual seasonal rain was less and deficit in mms was more this was the story till yesterday !! As Bangalore recorded 129mm seasonal rain since 01-06-2017 till 14-08-2017 so deficit was standing on -133mm which was below normal from departure ! And almost same was with Bangalore HAL as recorded 116 mms seasonal rain since 01-06-2017 till 14-08-2017 so deficit was standing on -111mm

But Independence Day started with Massive Rains overnight so all the seasonal deficit got wiped out in just span of 3-4hrs Thunderstorm rain !

Bangalore HAL recorded 144 mms & Bangalore city 129 mms rainfall ending 8.30am today on 15-08-2017.

Not only seasonal deficit got wiped out but Bangalore HAL Airport broken it's previous 103 mm highest rainfall record in 24 hrs for Aug month which was set on 12-08-1996 by setting new record of 144 mms in 24hrs today !

Also Blore city August total so far stands at 174mm till today against the normal 147mm ! So above of normal Aug avg in first half of month itself.

Bangalore Urban Dist rainfall in below map which clearly shows very heavy to moderate rainfall was well distributed over the region:

Back to home, Mumbai MMR in N.Konkan which is in break SWM period from past 15 days,sees an sudden surge of rainfall yesterday which proved one of the best widespread rain spell of August 2017 till today as with many stations scoring half centuries & also registering century in twin city of Kalyan-Dombivli. Below Map of Rainfall:

Click on both links for video: Badlapur 50mm in 1hr starting of spell in form of time-lapse(14-08-2017)
                                              Time lapse of clouds rolling(15-08-2017)

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Posted Sunday 13th Night:
Mumbai: Mumbai received a few showers on Sunday, around 10 mms in various places (till posting this).
Monday thru Wednesday will be partly cloudy, with few spotty medium to heavy showers, in parts of the city. Rains may not exceed 10 mms /day.

Pune: Monday thru Wednesday: Partly cloudy and light rains possible in parts of Pune. Day night range will be between 29c and 22c.

All Dams Maharashtra Water Storage Position as on 12th August:

The levels of ALL Dams combined  %  of the full Storage. ( Brackets is storage % on date last year).
Marathwada       26%  (25%).
Pune Region:     78% (86%). 
Nasik Region:    57% (60%)
Konkan               88% (89%).

Maharashtra whole   53% (63%)

A Low pressure may form in the Bay around the 18th/19th August.

Saturday, August 12, 2017

Posted Saturday Evening:

With the Monsoon Axis stuck in the Himalayan Foothills, the heavy rains in G.West Bengal and Bihar have started...and Pradeep provides us the latest rain amounts
Rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am in West Bengal on 12.08.2017
Hasimara - 478, Buxaduar - 445
Barobhisha -­ 440 , Alipurduar­ - 390, Chepan­ - 320
NH ­31 - 295 , Jalpaiguri­ - 295, Domohani­ - 250 
Diana - 230, , Coochbehar­ - 233, Murti - ­200 
Mathabhanga­ - 190, Dumka­ - 185, Neora­ - 170 
Sevoke - 150 , Gazoldoba­ - 140 , Nagrakata - 120 
Mohanpur - ­120 , Bagdogra­ - 105 , Bankura­ - 104, Malda - 102

In Assam no signs of floods coming down with Gossaigaon recording 371 mm.
Bihar too in the foothills are getting heavy rains with Bahadurganj recording 324 mm, Taibpur 315 mm and Forbesganj 295 mm.( From PJ)

Cherrapunji recorded 295.6 mm rainfall on Friday and crossed 5000 mm seasonal rainfall mark.
Seasonal rainfall: 5208 mm (Friday 11th)
Annual rainfall: 8740 mm (Friday 11th).
(From Shivkumar Mogal)

New Weather Phenomena: Space Lightning:
As the rest of India is comparatively silent, i take this opportunity to provide readers with this  an unusual (newly found in 2001) weather phenomena called "Space Lightning". The Gemini cloudcam atop Mauna Kea in Hawaii monitor storms approaching some of the world's largest telescopes. It often captures bright bolts of lightning lancing down to the ground This time the cameras caught lightning lancing upwards ! 
It was not until 2001-2002 that Gigantic Jets were first recorded from Puerto Rico and Taiwan." Only a few dozen Gigantic Jets have ever been seen, mostly over open ocean.
A rare footage of Gigantic Jets leaping up from a powerful thunderstorm. The strange-looking bolts reached toward the edge of space.
Cloudcam video caught at least three of these jets springing from the tops of a powerful growing thunderstorm. The tallest of them reached all the way to the ionosphere some 80 km overhead.

Sometimes called "space lightning," Gigantic Jets and their cousins the sprites are true space weather phenomena. They inhabit the upper atmosphere alongside auroras, meteors and noctilucent clouds. Some researchers believe they are linked to cosmic rays: subatomic particles from deep space striking the top of Earth's atmosphere produce secondary electrons that could, in turn, provide the spark for these upward bolts.

The link to cosmic rays is particularly interesting at this time. For the past two years, space weather balloons have observed a steady increase in deep space radiation penetrating our atmosphere. This increase is largely due to the decline in the solar cycle. Flagging solar wind pressure and weakening sunspot magnetic fields allow more cosmic rays into the inner solar system--a trend which is expected to continue for for years to come. These changes could add up to more Gigantic Jets in the future. 
Article courtesy Excerpts from spaceweather .com. More on this here.

Friday, August 11, 2017

Posted 11th August Night:

The Monsoon axis runs very close to the Himalayan Foothills. Hence, very heavy rainfall is expected in Eastern Nepal, Sikkim and Sub Himalayan West Bengal. Heavy rains likely at few places in East U.P, Bihar and Jharkhand.
Expecting the next low in the Bay around 18/19th of August.

Saturday: The break monsoon conditions will be felt as the day temperature records 32c. Partly cloudy skies with a few passing showers. Not much accumulation of rain above 7-10 mms.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with thunder cells developing in the eastern sky. A sharp shower possible in some parts of city by afternoon or evening. Some heavy showers in many areas of city. 20-30 mms possible.
Eastern Outer township also can get the singular thunder cell precipitating rains, maybe heavy.
Monday: Cloudy skies with few showers. Again, thundery developments possible in East. Upto 15-20 mms rain possible.

Not much rains and a Warm Weekend for Delhi NCR, with the day touching 37c possibly.
Kolkata: Estimate till Monday: Heavy showers expected in parts of city on Saturday.

Monsoon Contest: As explained earlier, there was a tie (Equal Scores).
The Super 6 are - Salil Kawli , Ronnie , Navdeep Dahiya , Shitij , Ankit Patel and  Vinod Desai 

Hence, a tie breaker is organised between the above 6 contestants only, for the final result  to emerge ..

All the contestants except Ankit Patel has filled and submitted their "Tie Breaker" Entries.

Hence Ankit has forfeited his entry.

Saturday, August 05, 2017

FORECAST - The monsoon will be weak over West India including Mumbai for the next 3 days .. Absence of significant rains will cause warm and humid conditions at Mumbai (32 c / 27 c) ..
# Refer the previous post for Monsoon contest results


Friday, August 04, 2017

Image result for tie break cartoons

 ( JUNE / JULY 2017 ) RESULTS ..

Well played all..
In a nail biting contest , there has been a tie between 6 contestants ( 2 points each ) !!

The Super 6 are - Salil Kawli , Ronnie , Navdeep Dahiya , Shitij , Ankit Patel and  Vinod Desai

Hence, a tie breaker will be organized between the above 6 contestants only, for toppers to emerge ..
They have to predict the total rainfall quantum during the period 1 June to 31 August 2017 , for the below mentioned stations by Monday 7th August 2017 (All other rules remain same as previous.. refer the contest page for details) ..

I. CITY RAINFALL EXPECTED during 1 June to 31 August 2017  ( 2 points for 25 mms and 1 point for 50 mms range )

1. Mumbai SCZ
2. Delhi Palam
3. Ahmadabad
4. Chennai AP

II .  HEAVY RAINFALL STATIONS during 1 June to 31 August 2017  ( 2 points for 50 mms and 1 point for 100 mms range )

1. Cherrapunji
2. Mahabaleshwar
3. Agumbe

So, Salil Kawli , Ronnie , Navdeep Dahiya , Shitij , Ankit Patel and  Vinod Desai please put your entries on the contest page only , mentioning # tie breaker # by Monday 7th August 2017


Tuesday, August 01, 2017

MONSOON REPORT (01-6-2017 TO 31-7-2017)    
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 31-7-2017)   460.20
SEASON +/-   1.63%
TO ACHIEVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER          required rainfall per day------->      mm
MINIMUM                              700   mm   3.93
AVERAGE                                890   mm   7.05
MAXIMUM                          1100   mm   10.49
HIGHEST RAINFALL DAY THIS SEASON                          24th JULY 14.7 mm
LOWEST RAINFALL DAY THIS SEASON                            5th   JUNE 1.2 mm
KONKAN & GOA   1092.50
JHARKHAND   489.40
N. I. KARNATAKA   77.30
HAR. CHD & DELHI   69.20
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL (1-6-2017 to 31-7-2017)           Actual (mm)   
WEST RAJASTHAN                                                                                                                         301.6 127.00%
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH                                                                                                               451 64.00%
GUJARAT REGION                                                                                                                         749.1 59.00%
EAST RAJASTHAN                                                                                                                          382.4 33.00%
JAMMU & KASHMIR                                                                                                                    336.9 31.00%
BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL (1-6-2017 to 31-7-2017)  Actual (mm)  
WEST UTTAR PRADESH                                                                                                                260.7 -21.00%
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY                                                                                                       89.9 -21.00%
ARUNACHAL PRADESH                                                                                                                811.6 -22.00%
KERALA                                                                                                                                             959.5 -30.00%
S. I. KARNATAKA                                                                                                                            235.2 -34.00%
SIROHI (rajasthan)   1568.5
EAST KHASI HILLS (meghalaya)   1435.7
DADAR & NAGAR HAVELI (union territory)   1295.6
VALSAD (gujarat)   1278
RAIGARH (maharashtra)   1256.8
PALGHAR (maharashtra)   1235
UDUPI (karnataka)   1153.2
THANE (maharashtra)   1151
RATNAGIRI (maharashtra)   1092.9
LUNGLEI (mizoram)   1078
PERAMBALUR (tamil nadu)   12.5
FIROZPUR (punjab)   12.3
ERODE (tamil nadu)   12.3
DINDIGUL (tamil nadu)   10
TIRUPPUR (tamil nadu)   9.4
YAMUNANAGAR (harayana)   6.9
LEH AND LADAKH (Jammu & kashmir)   6.2
TIRUNELVELI (tamil nadu)   5.3
TUTICORIN (tamil nadu)   1.9
SAIHA (mizoram)   0
TOP TEN DISTRICTS ABOVE NORMAL (1-6-2017 TO 31-7-2017)                Actual (mm)  
JALOR (rajasthan)                                                                                                                          840.8 330.00%
SIROHI (rajasthan)                                                                                                                      1655.9 310.00%
BANASKANTHA (gujarat)                                                                                                          1016.6 259.00%
BARMER (rajasthan)                                                                                                                     414.6 257.00%
PALI (rajasthan)                                                                                                                             662.4 202.00%
PATAN (gujarat)                                                                                                                             792.7 201.00%
GANDHINAGAR (gujarat)                                                                                                            960.1 172.00%
MORBI (gujarat)                                                                                                                              738 165.00%
JAISELMER (rajasthan)                                                                                                                 204.9 160.00%
SURENDRANAGAR (gujarat)                                                                                                      683.2 160.00%
BOTTOM TEN DISTRICTS BELOW NORMAL (1-6-2017 TO 31-7-2017)                        Actual (mm)  
DHARAMPURI (tamil nadu)                                                                                                          42.5 -68.00%
CHAMARAJANAGAR (karnataka)                                                                                                36.6 -72.00%
PANCHKULA (harayana)                                                                                                               117 -73.00%
FIROZPUR (punjab)                                                                                                                         39.5 -75.00%
SENAPATI (manipur)                                                                                                                        170 -77.00%
THOUBAL (manipur)                                                                                                                        102 -80.00%
SAIHA (mizoram)                                                                                                                             154 -81.00%
DIBANG VALLEY (arunachal pradesh)                                                                                       106 -84.00%
TUTICORIN (tamil nadu)                                                                                                                 3.1 -87.00%
TAWANG (arunachal pradesh)                                                                                                     149 -89.00%
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2017 to 31-7-2017)      37 (61%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2017 to 31-7-2017)      24 (39%)
source: IMD