Posted on Friday 29th Night:

Overall: 
Rains increasing from the TN coast thru into the interior from Saturday onwards. Rain spells will continue thru the next week as an easterly trough sets in with a few embedded UACs. This will culminate as a depression forms in the Bay on the 4th, and approaches the TN coast around the 6/7th of December.

A upper air trough runs east -west along Central Mah. Winds from an off shore trough will inte act. Light rain in South Maharashtra on Saturday, and gradulally increasing as rain moves into Madhya Maharashtra from Goa and South Konkan from Sunday.Heavy rains in S.Konkan and Goa on Monday and Tuesday. 
So winter gone for a toss in Maharshtra next few days.

Temperatures do not see a fall in Gujarat also this coming week.

Weekend Forecast for Some Cities: Saturday 30th November and Sunday 1st December..
Mumbai: 
Saturday and Sunday: Warm with East winds blowing. Result will be dry feel with less "heat feel" in spite of day temperatures at 34c. Nights will be around 19/20c.
Monday will be partly cloudy and warm. But night temperatures will increase by 2/3c. Some thunder clouds development in the eastern sky.
Outer townships in the east will be cloudy by afternoon and evening on Monday. Thunder clouds (Cb clouds) showing up late Monday afternoon.

Pune: 
Saturday and Sunday will be partly cloudy, with nights around 18/19c, and days will be at 30/31c.
Monday will be partly cloudy, with thunder clouds showing up by late afternoon. Shower possible in some parts of city on Monday evening. (5-10 mms).

Chennai: The road is now open ! A series of rain spells will keep Chennai wet and rainy thru the next 8 days.
Saturday will be cloudy with a few spells of rain, around 10 mms.
Sunday and Monday see an increase in rain intensity and frequency of showers. Rain amounts would be an average of about 10-15 mms on Sunday increasing to 20-25 mms on Monday. A few heavy showers in some areas.

Bangalore will be cloudy on Saturday, with a shower on Sunday evening. Also chance of a thunder shower on Monday evening in some areas. The temperature range will be between 27-19c on Saturday and Sunday, with a cooler day on Monday.

Goa: Seems sunny Goa will be cloudy with light rain this weekend. A thunder shower expected in some regons on Monday.

Delhi NCR: Clear skies. Sunny days, but good NW winds in the day will keep the day below 26c. Nights will drop by a couple of degrees to 9c from Sunday night.

Cyclone Lehar Top 10 Maximum 24 hrs Rainfall in mm updated on Pradeep's Page...

Spectacular first ever image of Earth Taken by Mars Color Camera aboard India’s Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) spacecraft....See Space News Page.

As usual, we have got the life cycle video of "Lehar" from Santosh Subramanian....see here.

BB-20 : Estimated crossing time worked out by several international models was around 1600 hrs IST, on 28th Thursday...just South of Machillipatnum. Winds approx at 30 knts...

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Posted @ 11.30 pm IST


Lehar now a TS, located at 15.3N and 83.8E, has depleted in strength as forcasted here after crossing the 85E line. Winds at 55 knts, it is at T 3.8 and likely to weaken more . Likely to cross the North AP coast between Kakinada and Vizag, by Thursday evening.( Probably between 6pm -8 pm)....Rains expected in East Godavri District and Vizag.

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Wednesday @ 8.30 pm IST:

Lehar crosses 85E, and hence has started weakening..Back to 55 knts and out of Cat 1 stage...also now tracking NW and crossed the 15N latitude at 15N ,84.2E....dry air has crept into the centre, choking the cyclone.....

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Tuesday Night @11.30 pm IST:

Lehar tracks NW from last posting and is located at 13.3N and 87.8E. In spite of weaker shear and stable convergence, strength remains constant at T4.0, with core winds estimated at 65-70 knts and pressure 984 mbar. 

As mentioned earlier, it will  track WNW or NW, and encounter a dry flow on coming to the 85E position. After that, we would see the hampering of further strengthening, or even weakening to some extent. Even the waters get cooler nearer the coast.

Expected to cross North Andhra coast by 28th noon. So, Vagaries maintains the slight NNW turn on approaching coastline.

On reaching land, will track NW and weaken. A trough will guide the system in the NW, but weaken it rapidly. 
The "gateway" is then open for the much publicised Easterly Wave to take over. The shape of things to come for Chennai.

Post Lehar rainfall would be restricted to Southern most Odisha, South Chattisgarh and adjoining MP and Vidarbh. Nagpur may be cloudy and light showers in vicinity on 30th November.

Some regions of Western Maharashtra got the thunder showers popping up on Tuesday 26th. Outer township of Mumbai (Eastern) , Badlapur, had very heavy thunder storms on Tuesday night, and surrounding towns of Dombivali, Karjat and Kalyan had light rains.
Mahableshwar had showers in the evening, measuring 8 mms.

Interior townships around Mumbai in the East can see thunder clouds "poping up" in isolated pockets again on Wednesday 27th. Possibly, a thunder cloud can drift over Northern Mumbai townships.
On Wednesday, Pune or the ghat regions can also see the thunder storm in patches. 

Thursday onwards will be dry...forecast for the weekend ( Mumbai) will be put up on Thursday.

The temperatures in the Northern region of the sub continent have risen, and night temperatures are upto 4/5c above normal. I think the nights will drop back to normal levels from Friday night. Would remain around normal levels till 3rd/4th December.

Delhi NCR which has seen temperatures rise, would fall to normal levels from Friday. Days will remain warmer  (26/27c) for a few more days.

 Posted @ 6 pm IST: a Brief Note>>

Sub Tropical Ridge Western End shows a slight shifting towards the Indian Coast ( i.e.Shifting West). This would enable Lehar to maintain a NW track for the next 24/36 hrs.

The Very Severe Cyclone has maintained its strength at T4.0 since 07 PM IST till 17.30 pm IST..and winds estimated at 65 knts. Pressure estimate 985 mbar.

Currently the core centre, located at 12.9N and 89E, is moving along the Southern Periphery of the Ridge. 
A Sat Image showing the central core and upper winds has been shown here to gauge the Ridge as well as the fluctuating central core.

Lehar will now encounter drier air as it tracks towards the NW. The drier air is encircling the cyclone from the North-West and SW.

Next General Update on vagaries late tonite at 11.30 pm IST

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Posted Tuesday 12.30 pm IST..A Brief Report.Is Lehar getting choked ? We may have to forget Cat3, and even Cat 2 may be difficult if drier air and cooler SST invades !

Dry air, or air with low precipitable water content is surrounding Lehar from the West. Its wrapping around from the South tendency seems to be forming....may result in slackening  of strengthening, or even falling a notch lower. Shall observe the next 6 hrs...next brief report here @ 6 pm IST
www.vagaries.in

Posted Monday Night @ 9 pm IST:

Severe Cyclone Lehar...Wind speeds 65 knts, core pressure 986 mb and Cat 1. at 12.6N and 90.6E
The cloud mass noticed earlier has now merged with the central cloud mass, and an enlarged clouding is seen in the Eastern semi circle.

The cyclone will now track WNW, where the shear tendencies are showing decreasing trends. Alongwith the warm waters, we will see the cyclone strengthen to Cat 2. Later, on its track, the system encounters dry air. Hence, the strengthening faces resistance. 


The jet stream parameter and high pressure ridge will force the system to turn NW or even NNW later and cross North AP coast by the 28th. 

Rainfall was reported from Several cities of Maharshtra. Aurangabad received 87 mms till 8.30 am Monday. Rahuri measured 40 mms, Jalna 17 mms, Mumbai colaba saw 6.4 mms and many places in Mumbai had traces.Ratnagiri 6 mms and Alibag 3 mms.

Posted Monday @ 2.00 pm:
Severe Cyclone Lehar is now located at 12N and 91E. Moving at 15 knts/hour. It is now seen to have another distinct cloud mass north of the main cloud mass. The centre estimated at 989 mb is located in the main mass of cloud.Winds around the centre are estimated at 55 knts, Cat 1

Shear tendency is showing a decrease to the west, hence intensification to next stage possible.
May reach VSC or Cat 2.in the next 24 hrs. Can strengthen more to Cat 3 after 36/48hrs, but will weaken to Cat 2 on land fall.

The system may move NW and then turn NNW as it nears the AP coast...

Next Update on here at 9 pm IST

Posted Sunday 24th Nov Evening:

A hat-trick of Cyclones from the Bay! Phailin, Helen and Lehar..all three coming within almost a little more than a month. 

The Current cyclone ,Lehar, At 10.9N and far from the Indian mainland coast at 93.5E, it is about to cross the Andaman Islands as a cyclone. Crossing South, Port Blair has measured 24 mms in the 9 hrs till 5.30 pm Sunday.

As on Sunday 24th evening, the cyclone (BB-20) is located at 10.9N and 93.5E. Winds at 45 knts are formed round the centre due to the 996 mb pressure.
Now, as per the parameters and indication today, we see a initial NW movement. The decreasing shear tendency will ensure a further strengthening of the system in the next 24/36 hrs.

Presently in TS status as per the current strength, will jump to Cat1 by Monday. Estimated position by Monday, 12 hrs hence,  around 12N and 92E.

Vagaries estimates the track to take a NW trend now. Off the AP coast, when around East of Vizag, it is estimated that the cyclone will take a North turn and cross the Odisha coast. Judging from present track speed and resistance, it can cross the coast by the 28th evening, as, at the most, Cat 2.

On approaching the land, dry air will force and restrict the further strengthening of the system.
We shall track and monitor the movements for further tracking.

Suggestion and "hope" for Chennaites: An Easterly wave approaching is going to give very good bountiful precipitation to TN from 2nd December thru 4 days...rains from the systems (BB-19/20) have been very low, compared to what can come.. Just hold on, and forget the cyclones....

A sudden downpour on Saturday night poured 108 mms of rain for Bangalore City. The Winter total, tottering at 133 mms, suddenly jumped to 241 mms , now just short by 20 mms of the average. Yelahanka measured 12 cms..
A localsed downpour gave just 23 mms to the Air Port region.

Saturday, Southern Maharashtra got some isolated rains. Nanded measured 32 mms, Latur 10 mms, Parbhani 6 mms and Hingoli 1 mm.

No WDs for the North soon, but Northern Sub Continent region is in for a dry cold spell from early December, as a high pressure dominates the region...foggy days and nights will prevail..

Super Rainfall in many parts of South Tamil Nadu particularly Kanyakumari, Virudhunagar & Tirunelveli dt  as of 24th November>>....see Pradeep's Page

NEM Page Updated

Video of Cyclone Helen compiled by santosh..see here

Fresh Update of Lehar (BB-20) by 7 pm IST Sunday

Next Week (Tuesday 26th), rain expected in Pune and Ghats regions. Mahableshwar will get Showers.

Mumbai:
Sunday 24th: Partly cloudy with warm NE winds. Day temperature around 32c. Evenings NW winds.
Monday 25th: Partly cloudy with ENE winds. Days warmer at 32/33c.
Tuesday 26th/Wednesday 27th: Cloudy and getting mostly cloudy. Rise in night temperatures to 23/24c. 
Thundery developments over the Eastern skies. Eastern outer townships get thunder clouds with light rains.

Pune: Sunday 24 th and Monday 25th will partly clouded with light to medium clouds. Rise in night temperatures to 15/16c.

Tuesday 26th evening can see a thunder shower with cool breeze during rains. 

Mahableshwar holidayers can expect coudy Monday, and cool foggy Tuesday with thunder showers. 

Lonavala can get the evening shower on Tuesday.


BB-20, steaming ahead ! A depression and expected to move NW....track estimation will be put up here on Sunday evening ( 7 pm)...also, 
Chennai will get major rains from an effective Easterly wave from the 2nd of December, more than what it would have got from the systems...more tomorrow.

Posted Friday Morning @11.30 am IST:

As per Vagaries, Severe Cyclone Helen Crosses Land :
As per detailed Sat Imagery and estimate of system centre, as on 05Z/22,  it could be put to conclusion that the centre of the severe cyclone Helen, has crossed the coast of Andhra Pradesh (India) near 16.2N and 81.4E, near the town of Narsapur 16.2N and 81.4E). As the system weakened slightly prior to touching coast, prevailing winds are strong at 55 knts ,and pressure maintained at 990 mb. Absence of high rising clouds prevalent, as cloud top temperatures are lower at centre is -16c.

Very heavy rains now likely on Friday in Central and Northern coastal AP..upto 150-175 mms next 24 hrs. As clouds will spread, Andhra Pradesh will get good precipitation in the interiors ranging from 30-100 mms. Hyderabad will get heavy showers from Friday.

Rains spread to Southern Maharashtra and N.I.Karnataka on Saturday.
Cloud bands will stretch to the NE and cover Odisha and Kolkata.

Another Low forms in the Southern Bay on Friday evening, around the 10N 95E region. Initially, parameters show the system (BB-20) heading WNW towards Southern Andaman Islands.
If the system remains South of 12/13N till the 86E region, there is a chance of it turning WSW (towards Chennai). If it moves above 12/13N, and comes west of 86E, it  would move NW then.

Meanwhile, the WD over UAE/Oman is moving East into Pakistan. Northern and Central Pakistan can get rain from Friday thru Sunday. Heavy rains expected in the North.
Cities in Sindh like Hyderabad, Nawabshah and Sukkar can also expect showers. Karachi will be partly cloudy with light showers expected on Saturday.
WD in India will be restricted to the Northern hilly states.

Dubai received 22 mms last night

Overnight Rains in Muscat..See report and Pics on Inter Active Page
Posted Thursday Night:

Severe Cyclone Helen, moved slowly WNW, and was centred at 16N and 82.9E. Winds at 55 knts maintaining its status.
Expected to cross Guntur/Krishna Districts of AP coast on Friday 22nd.by afternoon.

Exactly as per our Sunday Night Post, a new Low forms in the Southern Bay on the estimated date, 21st, and BB-19 strikes coast on 22nd ( but as a severe cyclone, not WML as predicted). 
More on BB-19 and details of the new Low in tomorrow's post ( by 3 pm IST).

Thursday was a rainy day in the UAE. Pleasant weather and frequent rains with hails was prevelent in the day.
Al Ain AirPort received 25 mms of rain, and Abu Dhabi got 11 mms. Sharjah measured 7 mms.
Dubai saw a high temperature of 31c on Thursday.

In Oman, Qumaira got heavy rains and hails, recording 39 mms. Muscat too was cloudy with occasional rain, recording a high of 28c.Jabal Shams in the mountains recorded a high of 11.5c.
Some pics from Oman:

See Super Pic of Comet Ison on Space News Page..


A Western Disturbance is expected to bring good precipitation to the UAE and Oman from Thursday, 21st.
Dubai will get cool wet weather this weekend, with a cold and rainy day on Friday. 
Showers expected in Muscat also.

Rains for Pakistan:
The WD moves East initially. Northern Pakistan can expect precipitation from this system on Friday and Saturday.
Coastal regions and Sindh can get some showers on Friday and Saturday. Friday will be cool and cloudy in Hyderabad (Sindh) and Sukkar and Nawabshah.

Due to BB-19, I would expect the WD to move NE into Kashmir, and Northern hills of India.

NEM Page regularly Updated..Latest on Tuesday Night

Ratnagiri at 35.5c on Monday 18th November was at the peak as (almost) the hottest in Asia.. Beaten by Maumere (Indonesia) which recorded 35.6c...Whew !! saved the (hot) day for Ratnagiri !! 
Panji was 34.5c, Mumbai Scuz recorded 34.1c  and Colaba 34.5c. 

Bhira station recorded 37.7c on Monday, but I do not trust and do not believe the readings at that station to be accurate.)


Meanwhile, the hottest place in the world on Monday was Ngabu (Malawi) at 42c,

Life Cycle video of BB-18 compiled by Santosh Subramanian on Inter active Page...
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Posted Sunday Night:
Bay will be buzzing again from Thursday,18th: Precipitation resumes for the East Coast from 22nd.

A UAC will form "in situ" in the Bay in the Central region on 18th at around 15N. The UAC will descend to sea level, track Westwards, and cross the East Coast of India in the Southern AP region around the 22nd. Rains very heavy along AP coast and interiors, but good rains all along the coast of TN also. Could be numbered by Tuesday (BB-19).

Hyderabad gets rains on Friday 22nd.

Chennai will get a break in rain intensity from Tuesday thru Thursday. 
Friday, 22nd, the rains commence again. 

On 21st November, potential Low could form in the SE Bay, South of Andaman Islands in the 7N region. Can have a good potential for further developing possibly upto DD or cyclone stage.

As BB-18 dissipates, a pulse enters the Arabian Sea. Precipitation could be expected in coastal and interior Karnatak, south Konkan and ghat regions of Central Konkan.
Mumbai, as a result, will be cloudy on Monday. Outer townships in the East will be cloudy with light rains on Monday.
Pune cold becomes less, and clouds appear, with light rain possible on Monday.

Dry and cold in North Sub-Continent and Pakistan. Next WD scheduled for Saturday, 23rd towards Pakistan.

Long term forecasts can move a day either way

On Sunday morning, low Night temperatures in Northern India, with Adampur at 6.0c,  Hissar was 6.3c, Ludhiana at 7.0c,  Amritsar at 7.4c, Agra at 8.4c. Leh recorded -9.9c.
Delhi Sjung was at 9.2c, and Jafarpur in NCR was at 8.2c.
(It will be recalled that vagaries had estimated a drop of 3/4c after Saturday in the plains)


Maharashtra also showed a drop in night temperatures. Nasik was at 9.7c, Pune 9.9c, Aurangabad dropped to 11.7c.(see all Maharashtra Lows on Rohit's Page) 


NEM effect> Maximum Temperatures and rainfall in Tamil Nadu as on Sunday,17th November morning:

Chennai Meena 25.6c 124 mms, Nungam 26.1c  80 mms, Adirampatnam 26.2c   8 mms,  Dharmapuri 24.5c  90 mms, Karaikal 26.3c  20 mms, Tiruchirapalli 23.5c   142 mms, Nagapttinum 24.9c  3 mms, Salem 23c  49 mms, Vellore 23.4c  15 mms and Kodiakanal 12.7.c (That's cold)  with 15 mms!!...more Chennai Rains on NEM Page

Posted Saturday Evening:
As BB-18 crosses into Land , Tiruchchirapalli records 142 mms in 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm IST Saturday, Cuddalore 42 mms, Nellore 23 mms and Chennai 11 mms.
Chennai measures 22 mms in 24 hrs since Friday evening.

 

1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted Saturday Afternoon:
BB-18 at 11N and 80.5E. Slightly weakened at 1000 mb and winds slowed down to 25 knts.

Saturday Morning was cool at many places.
Nights get cool in Maharashtra...Abhijit gives the details in the comments on this article.
S'Jung drops to 9.1c, while Pusa University (N.Delhi) recorded 6.5c. Lowest i the Northern Plains was 5.9c at Muzafarnagar.
Islamabed saw 4c and Karachi dips to 16c
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Posted Friday 15th Night:

BB-18 maintains its strength at 1000 mb and 30 knts winds. Located at 9.8N, 83E..seems it has not moved significantly.
I do not see further intensification chances as the MJO may move to Phase 2 with decreasing amplitude.

NW track seems the possible course now, and cross TN coast.
Chennai: Saturday 16th will be overcast with occasional rains. 24 hrs rain amount from Saturday morning thru Sunday morning would be around 50 mms. 
Sunday 17th will be overcast, with occasional rains. Amounts would be around 30 mms.
Rain intensity decreasing from Monday.

The East coast trough strengthens after the BB-18 system, and develops an off shore vortex off the TN coast by Wednesday 20th.
An Easterly trough forms along the 12N line next week. A fresh Low expected in the Central Bay around the 15N line by the 18th. 
Tamil Nadu State can get good widespread precipitation on the weekend. Would expect around 80-100 mms rains along the Central and Southern coast towns.

Would expect the clouding to cover the interiors of Karnataka and Southern Maharashtra by Sunday 17th. 
Mumbai: The slow dipping of nght temperatures will be halted in Mumbai from Sunday 17th. Some clouding on Sunday 17th thru Tuesday 19th.Thundery developments in the Eastern sky on Monday and Tuesday.
Pune will get light showers on Monday 18th night.

A weak WD whizzes past the Northern sub continent on Saturday 16th. Upper regions and Kashmir, HP and Northern Pakistan will see precipitation on Saturday, 16th.
Cold conditions prevail in the plains. Adampur was the Lowest at 5.6c. Lowest in Mountains was Shyok at -15c.

In Pakistan, Islamabad was 4c, Rawalpindi 7c, Faislabad and Lahore at 9c, Nawabshah dipped to 12c and Sukkur 13c.Karachi is at a pleasant 18c.
After a brief rise in temperatures, cooler days and nights, seeing a fall of 3/4c from Saturday levels will be the scene in Northern regions and plains of India and Pakistan.

Muscat had a thunderstorm on Friday night (currently on at time of publishing). Saiq had 15 mms.
Rains likely in Muscat and Dubai on Saturday and Sunday

Posted Friday Afternoon 3.30 pm IST Position:
BB-18, depression at 1000 mb and 30 knts has moved West from last Update...  blog...next Update of BB-18 and WD at 11 pm IST

Posted Friday Morning:

BB-18, Depression, is located at 9.8N and 83.9E as on 8.30 am IST Friday.
Now, seeing the current strength and height of the system, it will be steered and guided  by the 200 hpa winds direction.

Situation is tricky at the moment.....The guiding winds are turning NE jst South of the 9/10N Latitude line. North of this bifurcation latitude, winds at 200 hpa are SE.
The system centre should track above the 10N line, to get a NW steering. On this situation, International models show divergent views.

The Actual Position v/s Forecasted

Cities Cooling in India....sent by Santosh Subramanian (Kolkata)

Latest Post of Thursday Night with Track Map on NEM Page...

Posted on Wednesday Night @11.30 pm IST:

BB-18 refuses to budge.....located at 11.4N and 84.5E..that translates to .5 degrees  in the last 8 hours and 1 degree in the last 24 hrs.
At an estimated central pressure of 1003 mb, winds estimated at 25-30 knts, the depression is stagnated for the last 24 hrs.
SST ( 28c-30c) are not encouraging rapid growth as we had cautioned initially. Current MJO is in phase 3 (favourable) and amplitude less than 1 (not favourable). 
With moderate vertical wind shear (15-20 knts), and ocean thermal energy at 80-100 KJ/CM square.
Consensus will go with slow intensification and at the most Deep Depression on land fall by Friday.


 While Leh recorded a low of -11c on Wednesday morning, the lowest in the plains was 6.6c at Adampur (Punjab) and Muzaffarnagar (UP).


Posted on Wednesday Afternoon (3 pm IST Report):

BB-18 movement has staggered,but system has deepened to become a depression. 
 Since last report (on NEM Page) of Tuesday Night, the system has deepened to become a depression, and is at 1004 mb with core winds estimated between 25-30 knts, and gusts at 35 knts. 
But the strengthening has staggered its movement, and has shifted only about 55 kms to the W/NW direction. 
Hence, in the last 15 hrs, its movement has been from 11.4N, 85.5E to the current (2.30 pm IST Wednesday) location of 11.9N , 85E.
Very much slower than the previous 24 hrs tracking.
 BB-18 centre is still 550 kms from the coast, and at current rate estimates, the land cross ( central Point) should be stretched by anther 24 hrs from our previous estimated time. Now, we can expect the centre of BB-18 to cross land by Friday morning/afternoon.
The TN coast can expect precipitation from Thursday evening.

Next Update at 11 pm IST Wednesday.

Posted Monday Night:

BB-18, WML, located as on Monday evening at 11.7N and 88.7E. Pressure 1004 mb, stationary, but slight deepening. Winds at 20 knts. 
Weak convective bands are seen around a circulation centre.

With moderate wind shear (upto 20 knts), and an encouraging Pole ward flow (energy transfer), we see a slight strengthening of BB-18 to a depression by Tuesday evening. System will move Westwards.

Chennai and coastal SST is now 29c. 
We can expect the system to cross Northern TN coast around Chennai by Wednesday. At land cross  near Chennai, winds will be around 35 knts, and rainfall in 24 hrs period will be around 50 mms.

On Wednesday, interior TN will get good precipitation and heavy falls in many districts. 

There is a possibility of the pulse crossing into the Arabian Sea, and form a UAC off Karnataka coast by Friday15th.
Precipitation is expected to spread by then into Karnataka and Southern Maharashtra and S.Konkan.

Mumbai will see lower night temperatures next few nights. Lows will be around 20/21c at Scruz. 
But, we may see the nights getting warmer after Thursday 14th. Cloudy weather will be the cause for warmer nights and light rains on Friday 15th and Saturday 16th.for Mumbai.

Pune will see pleasant nights on Tuesday 12th and Wednesday 13th, with lows around 12/13c. But, end of the week, clouds appear, and light rains expected on Friday 15th/Saturday 16th.

Excellent compilation of life cycle of typhoon Haiyan by vagarian Santosh Subramanian (Kolkata)...see here

NEM Page Updated for those Interested...
Posted Monday 11th, afternoon:
The system from the Bay is now well marked, and could be numbered as BB-18.
BB-18 is at 11N and 88E, Monday afternoon, and its central pressure is at 1004 mb.
Conditions and parameters will allow it to track Westwards, and deepen to the depression stage by Tuesday. However, precipitation will be restricted to the seas till Tuesday.

On approaching the coast, we see SST resistance to strengthening. Vagaries would slightly modify its last estimate, and estimate BB-18 to cross land at North TN region, and precipitate fairly good amounts ( 40-60 mms) in North TN from Wednesday.

Pulse from BB-18 can form another Low in the Arabian Sea off Karntaka/Goa around 13th.

Another Update tonite by 11 pm IST.

Monday morning saw the expected drop in temperatures in Maharashtra. Mumbai was at 22c, and Pune dropped to 12.8c. Nasik was at 14.8c.
In the North too, the cities in the plains were between 10-12c, with Amritsar seeing 9.8c, Chandigarh 10.4c and Delhi Sjung 12.2c.
 


Posted on Friday Night @ 11.45 pm IST

South:
A Low pressure forms in the Eastern Bay. Currently it is located at 13N and 97E. The adjoining trough will push the Low into the Andaman Islands  and will initially deepen. This Low is capable of reaching the TN coast if it cruises South of 15N.
The Low will move Westwards, and bring precipitation to the Bay Islands. If, the system remains South of the 15N line, it would take the Westerly course, and bring rains to the TN coast  by the time the clouding from the system reach the TN coast around the 13th of November.

The system will have enough strength on crossing the TN coast to bring good rainfall in TN from 13th -16th. 
Infact, I see the rains moving inland and covering the entire Southern Peninsula. from Wednesday 13th.

Major NEM rains will elude Chennai at least till Tuesday/Wednesday 12th/13th, when, as explained above, clouds and rains from the Low will approach the TN coast.
Chennai rains intensity will increase after 13th/14th for the next 4/5 days.
Nights in Chennai were 22c, and the minimum is expected to be in the 21/22c range this weekend. 


But, for the moment, next 3 days, Saturday thru Monday, the weather will be dry over both India and Pakistan. 

Maharashtra:
Ensuing Easterlies will keep the interior peninsula pleasant, and cities in interior Maharashtra will be around 30c. NW winds in the Northern plains will keep the day around 25c.

Mumbai skies will be hazy, and partly cloudy on Saturday. Nights will be distinctly nippy from Sunday Night, when (on Monday morning) we see a low of 20/21c at Scruz, and maybe 18c in the outer townships.

With clear skies after Saturday, the next date for clouds in Mumbai will be from 17th November. 

Vagaries' long term forecast indicates some rain for Mumbai on 17th and 18th November.

Nights also going to 13/14c by Monday morning in Nasik. Pune and Aurangabad.

North:
Next 2/3 nights, we may see the night temperatures dropping by 2/3c in the Punjab, Delhi NCR and Haryana regions. 
Delhi NCR may hover around 12/14c and cities in Punjab around 10-13c.

WD-3 covers Kashmir and HP on Wednesday 13th. Another round of rain and snow in the region.

Super Typhoon Haiyran is one of the most intense tropical cyclones in world history, with sustained winds an incredible 190 mph (305 kmph), gusting to 230 mph (370 Kmph), said the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Latest:Estimated Pressure 888 mb, winds 170 knts (314 kmph), position 490 nmi E/SE of Manila...Tracking W/NW....Warning as no chance of weakening before hitting The Philippines..

Dr. Jeff Master's Blog on Super Typhoon Haiyan

Super Typhoon Haiyran is one of the most intense tropical cyclones in world history, with sustained winds an incredible 190 mph (305 kmph), gusting to 230 mph (370 Kmph), said the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in their 15 UTC (10 am EST) November 7, 2013 advisory. Officially, the strongest tropical cyclone in world history was Super Typhoon Nancy of 1961, with sustained winds of 215 mph. However, it is now recognized (Black 1992) that the maximum sustained winds estimated for typhoons during the 1940s to 1960s were too strong. Since 1969, only three tropical cyclones have equalled Haiyan's 190 mph sustained winds--the Western Pacific's Super Typhoon Tip of 1979, the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, and the Atlantic's Hurricane Allen of 1980. 
All three of these storms had a hurricane hunter aircraft inside of them to measure their top winds, but Haiyan's winds were estimated using only satellite images, making its intensity estimate of lower confidence. Some interpretations of satellite intensity estimates suggest that there may have been two super typhoons stronger than Tip--Super Typhoon Gay of 1992, and Super Typhoon Angela of 1995. We don't have any measurements of Haiyan's central pressure, but it may be close to the all-time record of 870 mb set by Super Typhoon Tip. 
The Japan Meteorological Agency estimated Haiyan's central pressure at 895 mb at 12 UTC (7 am EST) November 7, 2013. Haiyan has the most spectacular appearance I've ever seen on satellite loops, with a prominent eye surrounded by a huge, impenetrable-looking mass of intense eyewall thunderstorms with tops that reach into the lower stratosphere. With landfall expected to occur by 21 UTC (4 pm EST) on Thursday, Haiyan doesn't have time to weaken much before landfall, and will likely hit the Philippines at Category 5 strength.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Haiyan taken at 4:25 UTC November 7, 2013. At the time, Haiyan was a Category 5 storm with top winds of 175 mph. The Philippines are visible at the left of the image, and the Caroline Islands at the lower right. Image credit: NASA.

Haiyan will be the third Category 5 typhoon to make landfall in the Philippines since 2010. In 2010, Super Typhoon Megi peaked at 180 mph winds just east of Luzon Island in the Philippines, and made landfall in the Philippines as a Category 5 storm. Megi's landfall was proof that the Philippines can withstand a strike by a Category 5 storm without a catastrophe resulting, as Megi killed only 35 people, and did $276 million in damage. However, the last Category 5 storm to hit the Philippines--Super Typhoon Bopha, which hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao on December 3, 2012--did cause a catastrophe. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history at the time. 


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Megi as seen by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite at 10:35 a.m. Philippine Time (02:35 UTC) on October 18, 2010. Megi was bearing down on Luzon Island in the Philippines as a Category 5 storm with 170 mph winds. Megi killed 35 and did $276 million in damage, making it the 6th most expensive typhoon in Philippines history. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Haiyan's deadliest danger: heavy rains, high winds
The deadliest threat from Philippine typhoons is usually heavy rains, since the islands are very mountainous, leading to very high rainfall amounts capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides. Deforestation of the mountainous slopes has contributed to this problem in recent decades. The latest rainfall forecast from the 06Z November 7, 2013 run of the HWRF model is not encouraging. A 50-mile wide swath of 8+ inches of rain is predicted to cross the Central Philippines. The soils are already very wet from the heavy rains that Tropical Depression 30 dumped over the region on Monday, so the rains from Haiyan will runoff quickly and create life-threatening flooding. Haiyan's winds are also a huge concern, particularly in Tacloban, population 221,000, the capital of the province of Leyte. Tacloban will likely receive a direct hit, and I expect the sustained winds from Haiyan will be at Category 4 strength in the city.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from the 06Z November 7, 2013 run of the HWRF model, for the 108-hour period ending at 18Z November 11, 2013. A 50-mile wide swath of 8+ inches of rain (medium dark red colors) is predicted to cross the Central Philippines and Northern Vietnam. This is likely an underestimate of the rains, since Haiyan is now stronger than what the HWRF model was predicting at 06Z. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/EMC.

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Posted on Sunday, 4th November:

WD-2 is on its way... and seeing the trough depth, would expect precipitation in All Pakistan, including Sindh on Tuesday. Light to moderate rains likely in Sindh, as the trough dips down with an induced  Low over Sindh. 
Karachi can expect light rain or showers on Tuesday,5th/Wednesday 6th. Showers can also be expected in Hyderabad, Nawabshah and Sukkur.
Rains and snow commence in Kashmir on Tuesday from the system.

As the WD travels East, the induced Low over Sindh dissolves, and rains are expected in Northern Pakistan, Northern Indian States of Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, HP and Kashmir. The hills region can get another round of snow.

Delhi NCR will be cloudy and light rains in parts on Wednesday,6th. and Thursday 7th. Accumulated rains for 3 days around 10 mms. 

The WD is expected to persist over North India till 7th November. Hence, besides all over Kashmir and HP, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi will have clouds and intermittent rains till 7th November.

Wet weather ceases from Friday in North India.Cold wave in North/NW and Western India will follow with fog.

 May the festival of lights be the harbinger of joy and prosperity. As the holy occasion of Diwali is here and the atmosphere is filled with the spirit of mirth and love, here's hoping this festival of beauty brings your way, bright sparkles of contentment, that stay with you through the days ahead. 

Best wishes on Diwali.




Today’s the `Festival of Lights’ all over; 
A joyful day for minds and hearts and souls;

Laughter and smiles for many days; 

Let there be triumph in every way.



Thank You Vagarans for your steadfast support and for bringing Vagaries to the top of the List.

After the recent snow and rain in the North, we see clear weather this weekend for the region.

Clear skies will bring patches of fog in parts of Punjab.

Divali weekend will bring hazy sunshine to Delhi NCR, with crisp and nippy nights. Temperature for New Delhi range will be between 31c and 16/17c till Tuesday. Some places in NCR dropping to 15c.

However, another WD, WD-2, will be approaching from the West, and will be over Northern regions of Pakistan by Tuesday 5th evening. Expected to bring rain and snow in Northern Pakistan and then move into India from Wednesday, 6th November. 

The 200 hpa jet streams are strong and uniform, thus inducing and tracking WDs eastwards, being an ideal condition for formation and eastward tracking of WDs. But, we do not see a "Rossby" in them yet. That would bring in much more rain and encourage creation of a deeper upper and mid trough, to induce another low in the plains. As yet, today, that is not visible or possible to form .

Kolkata will have a dry and sunny Divali. Pleasant range of 30c-19c.

In Sindh,Pakistan, it will be dry and warm. Karachi will be lightly clouded, but warm and mostly sunny. Temperature range will be between 31c and 21c. WD-2 will effect Upper Sindh on Tuesday.

In Kathmandu, it will be a dry and pleasant Divali. Days will be partly cloudy, and in the 22c region. However, nights will be a pleasant 11c. November is generally a dry month for the city, where the average rain is only 8 mms.Pokhra got light rains today (4 mms).

Western Nepal likely to expect next showers around 6th/7th from WD-2.

see Rohit's Page Updated

Please Read the New Set Up. This will help in easy follow up and previous references:
In our sub Continent, the variation and weather fluctuations vary from season to season. SWM is active and covers the major portion of the country from June -September.

Now, the South needs special covering and follow up for the NEM during the next 2 months. The North, NW, Pakistan and Nepal are cold and freezing, and with fog or WDs, and need an exclusive mention many a times.

Looking at this need, Vagaries will make a special NEM Page (for this NEM season), and keep it updated almost daily with the latest, so that the follow up and continuity of the successive articles are easy to refer back and understand. Normally, another (unrelated) event would push the article down, and continuity is lost. 
South Weather will be on new NEM Page ONLY.

Mumbai Weather will be updated on Mumbai Page ONLY at regular intervals.
 The North, Pakistan and Nepal and other regions weather will be on main Page.

This arrangement will commence from tonite..all 3 pages ( Main,NEM, Mumbai) will be updated on Friday Night by 11 pm IST.

Thanks,

Vagaries.