Saturday, March 31, 2012


Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast for  the  week 1st April to 8th April.

As we move into April, we are alert, and start observing the "Monsoon Build up" parameters. Starting from the Mascrene High formation and cyclones activity in the Southern Indian Ocean to the Peninsula trough and "pre- monsoon" lows in the Bay, the ICTZ movement and to the heating up in the NW regions of the Sub-Continent. 



1. Important this week will be the N/S trough line as it starts showing signs of forming. A N/S trough, or a "line of Wind dis-contiunity", is a trough which has winds moving in the opposite direction on either side of the line. In this case, a perfect line of wind dis-contiunity will be formed when the winds will be from the N in the West of the line, and S in the eastern side. By mid April, the line should be seasonal. and located approximately in the central region of the Southern Peninsula.
As the week starts, the trough will be haphazard, and will be somewhere along the Western Mah/coastal Karnataka line. That is, more towards the West than normal. But during the 2nd half of the week, the line may move Eastwards, and start stabilising its position, though still weak.

2. Resultantly, there will be clouds developing, and bringing afternoon showers (read Summer showers) to Kerala, being in the Southern tip region of the trough. The meeting of winds can bring about good convection and start initial Summer precipitations.

3. M-7 is precipitating light rains in Northern Pakistan on the 31st, Saturday. Moving into India by Sunday, 1st April, and leaving clear weather in its rear, M-7 will precipitate rains, though weak, in Kashmir, H.P. and move into Western Nepal. Moisture will linger on in Nepal for 3/4 days into the week.

4. Strong NW winds have kept the day temperatures within reasonable limits along the West Coast of India, and in fact have brought the days to the below normal conditions in N.Konkan. Mumbai had a high of 31c on Saturday. 



But the heat is creeping in from the NW of the Sub-Continent as seen in this IMD map. Heat wave temperatures were recorded in Upper Sindh (Pakistan) and adjoining Rajasthan on Saturday. 
In Pakistan highest temperatures were Mitthi 43 °C, Jaccobabad ,Hyderabad and Nawabshah 42 °C while in India Jaisalmer was at 42c.
Heat wave will abate from the region after Monday. However, heat wave will prevail over Central and Eastern India mainly this week.

5. A vortex in the upper air forms over Bangladesh by Thursday, and could bring some heavy rains with squalls in some pockets of the Central regions of Bangladesh on Thursday,5th/Friday,6th. 

6. It's going to be almost a cloudy week for Dubai and Muscat. Light rains expected in both cities on Wednesday,4th. In fact,Thursday will be almost overcast.
Muscat will start getting cloudy from Tuesday or Wednesday, and can expect some light rains on Wednesday /Thursday. Days will be cooler as a result.

City Forecast:

Delhi: Come Saturday and the capital has moved into the "36c" range, as mentioned in the last weekly forecast. S'Jung was 36.5c and Palam 38c on Saturday.
Sunday/Monday/Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with light drizzles on Monday night/Tuesday. With moderately strong SE winds, the days will be marginally rising to the 37/39c levels. A bit of moisture may make it more uncomfortable, as the "real Feel" temperature will be around 39c.
Wed/Thurs/Friday: Return of N winds will lower the days to 36c levels again. And humidity going down, it will be much more bearable in the latter half of the week.

Mumbai: Saturday was 31c.
Sunday/Monday: The day will be slightly warmer than Saturday, maybe reaching 33/34c.
Tuesday/Wed/Thursday: Will see the days falling back to 31/32c as N/NW winds will dominate. 
However, with humidity levels showing no signs of going "out of limits", (may remain at a high of 75% and minimum at 40%) this week, the comfort factor even with 32c and 33c may be "still ok" by Mumbai standards.  The positve signs will be the lows, which will remain below the 25c mark most of the week.(It could rise after mid April). 

Pune: Week will be dry, with the days warm at around 38c and nights showing a fall to 18/19c throughout the week. 
Monday/Tuesday may be partly cloudy, and result in the nights going up marginally to around 20c.


Nagpur: With the heat gradually rising, we can expect the "hot city" to reach 42/43c by Wednesday. Convection can happen by mid week, as S winds bring in moisture. Expect thundershowers on Thursday.Nights expected to rise to 26c by mid week.


Kathmandu: M-7 precipitation may bring thunder showers to the capital from Tuesday. Persistant moisture through the week will produce the odd thundershower till Saturday next. Resultantly, very pleasant weather will rule the week, as the days will remain in the 29/30c range, and nights around 12/13c. 

Karachi: Partly cloudy weather will rule most of the week. Winds will be W/NW, and with clouds in the sky, day temperatures may drop slightly from the present 37c levels, maybe by 2/3c. But, humidity increasing is going to affect the comfort levels and the real feel temperatures.
Sukkur: Remains cloudy till Monday. But, Tuesday onwards it should be clear skies and hot temperatures. Though Sukkur touched 40c on Saturday, beyond Sunday, I do not expect an unusual heat wave in the region this week. 

Friday, March 30, 2012


Yes ! It has started to "bake" as Satyen from Bharuch points out.
And Satyen, what more can I write? It was all there in the weekly forecast put up last Sunday (point No.3).


In Sindh (Pakistan) the predicted heat wave is on, with Lasbella recording 43c. Incidently the highest in Asia on Friday.
Nawabshah, Hyderabad, Moen jo Daro and Chorr were 42c. Sukkar sees a rise to 40c, and Karachi pre maturely heating up to 38c.


In India, Friday's highest was Chandrapur, Vidharbha (again, in Vagaries' predicted region) with 42.0c. Bhuj in Gujarat was at 41.7c Idar at 41.2c and Rajkot was 40.8c. 
Pune too fell in line with the forecast, dropping to 36.6c on Friday. 


Rains expected in Orissa and North coastal A.P. on the weekend. Bhubaneshwar could receive up to 15-20 mms.

Thursday, March 29, 2012


Point No:3 of Sundays' Vagaries' Weekly Forecast: "Thursday,29th and Friday 30th, could see persisting heat and hot temperatures bringing almost heat wave conditions in Cenral Sindh, parts of Saurashtra and Gujarat region (including Bharuch) and Vidharbha."






Ashokbhai confirms the heating up of Saurashtra region as is also seen in this IMD map. Rajkot (Saurashtra) reaches 41.1c on Thursday, while Chandrapur (Vidharbha) reaches 42.1c. I would estimate Bharuch to have touched 40.5c today (Thursday).
In Sindh (Pakistan), it was Mithi and Chorr at 39c as the highest.
Going as per our Weekly estimated range.


Delhi saw a high of 33c today, as as expected, should shoot up into the 36 range from Saturday.
Pune was stubbornly at 38.7c Thursday.


Mumbai:Expecting the Mumbai humidity to reach 85% as forecasted on Friday morning with misty and hazy conditions. 


Kathmandu is in the 30-11c range.


Point No: 2: The projected trough was present thru this week and now, has adjusted into a slightly more NE/SW position. It runs from M.P.thru Mah and Karnataka into the Arabian Sea on Thursday.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

March has meant 7,000 weather records broken in the U.S...see International Page.
Global Warming Hysteria Page Updated..


An Early Prelude to the Monsoon Watch Series has become necassary as the La-Nina has ended a little faster than expected. 
MW Series will start around 10th April.


The 2011–12 La Niña event has ended:


This past week an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) moved into the western Pacific, cloudiness increased and easterly wind anomalies along the equator decreased. As a result, all key indicators of La Niña are now within neutral thresholds. 


With key indicators returning to neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) levels, the La-Nina is over !


The 2011–12 La Niña decline has been fairly typical, with a peak in January and a return to neutral conditions by early summer (or spring).


Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean have generally warmed (though only slightly) compared to those of two weeks ago. All three NINO indices monitored have warmed in the past fortnight. 
NINO3 −0.1 +0.1 0.2 °C warmer
NINO3.4 −0.4 −0.3 0.1 °C warmer
NINO4 −0.5 −0.3 0.2 °C warmer


The SST anomaly map for the week ending 26th March shows mostly near-normal sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, with some residual cool anomalies across the central equatorial Pacific.






The Indian Ocean Dipole is now showing a "trend" towards a positive movement. Current SST show leaning more towards a +ve IOD. In fact it is not -ve at all.
A fully developed +ve IOD has proven to be good for the SWM in the Indian Sub Continent.


Likewise, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have also returned to near-normal values for this time of year. The 30-day SOI to 25 March is +7.1  
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose early in the last fortnight before holding around +7 for the past week, remaining within values indicative of neutral ENSO conditions. 
The SOI has remained within neutral values since mid to late February. The latest (25 March) 30-day SOI value is +7.1.


Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions. 
It has been below the threshold of +8 since 19 February. 


The demise of the La Niña means the chances of a "super" SWM has ended. But, neutrality can indicate a normal (not super) SWM. 
While sea surface temperatures around the sub-continent remain coolerr than normal, there remains a chance of normal (or even slightly above normal) rainfall over the Indian regions.


As of today (according to me), The above two SST parameters (ENSO and IOD) indicate a normal SWM. But do not forget, there are another 6/7 parameters like the cyclone season in South Indian Ocean, the Mascrene Highs, April/May heat in central and NW India, cross equatorial winds, pressure gradients etc that will determine the strength and arrival date of the SWM. 

Excerpts from Aust.Bur.of Met,, Jamstec, Unysis and Vagaries'compilations.

Sunday, March 25, 2012


Just a few days back, Vagaries expressed concern on the seriousness and importance of the SWM. We should look into International studies also and consider steps for preparedness. See here.
Now some good news, we read-
"India examines various weather prediction models of foreign agencies." See link here.



U.S. has been through a mild winter this season..compared to Europe and Asia..and March began with heat waves..Do you know how many records have been equaled or broken in March ...?? Put up a guess ??? 

Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast for  the  week 25th March to 1st April.




1. M-6, the latest in the series of W.D.s in March, is now sweeping through Northern Pakistan and India. The clouding is pushing Southwards into Punjab and Haryana. Northern areas of Rajasthan are parts of Delhi are clouded too. Across the border, clouds are observed in Sindh and Punjab (Pakistan).

M-6 will precipitate in the Northern regions of Pakistan on Sunday. Some incoming moisture will bring rains to Upper Sindh and adjoining regions on Tuesday, 27th. 
But Indian states of Kashmir, H.P. and parts of Utteranchal will continue to get rains till Tuesday, 27th March. In fact, on Tuesday, it will be heavy in H.P. with upper regions of Keylong and Kalpa receiving snowfall.


Punjab can get light rains on Monday. Delhi will not get any rains from this system.
M-6 moves into Western Nepal as a weak system on Wednesday, 28th March.


2. A trough line runs along Central India, roughly in line with 20N, for most of the week from Monday thru Thursday. The N winds and the S winds meet along this line. 
Starting Mon/Tuesday, Effect will be: Hot temperatures South of this line, specially in the Eastern part of the trough covering Eastern Vidharbha and adjoining Orissa. 
Nominal rise in NW and Northern India of 1 to 2c in day temperatures.
Strong N winds above the line, from Rajasthan in the West to W.Bengal will be prominent. 


3. Thursday,29th and Friday 30th, could see persisting heat and hot temperatures bringing almost heat wave conditions in Cenral Sindh, parts of Saurashtra and Gujarat region (including Bharuch) and Vidharbha (see vagaries map).


4. Very strong winds in Southern Arabia on Wednesday, 28th, will kick up a lot of sand. This sand/dust storm could flow into Oman on Thursday.


City Forecasts for the Week:


Mumbai: After the 39.5c on Saturday (24th), Mumbai slid to 36.5c on Sunday. However, Mumbai Colaba remained at 35.3c even on Sunday.
Throughout this week, Mumbai winds will be "favourable" due to the trough line. No E winds, and no heated temperatures. 
From Monday, N/NW winds will keep the days within the 33/34c range. But, the sea breeze will bring up the humidity gradually in the week.

By Friday, 30th, the morning humidity will shoot up to 85%. This would result in very misty and low visibility conditions (more so in open areas) on Friday and Saturday mornings.


Pune: With the minimum night temperatures still in the below normal range at 15c, the evenings and nights continue to be comfortable thanks to the extended cool climate of this city. 


Monday/Tuesday will be warm and the day temperature shoulds be around 38/39c, and the nights might just give up clinging to the lows and settle at 18c! But come Wednesday and Thursday and we could see a slight drop of a couple of degrees again. 
NW winds would be dominating from Wednesday or Thursday. 


Delhi: Nights are still in the pleasant 15/16c range. Capital will be fortunate as it will remain in the 33/34c range (day temperatures)till the week end. Actual heating (read above 36/37c) for the capital will not start till next Saturday/Sunday, 1st April, at least. 


Surat will also see a drop in temperatures from the unusual 40c of Saturday and Sunday to around 36c from Monday itself. Rise in humidity on Friday will find a misty morning on Saturday 31st March. 


Pakistan:
Sukkar: Possibility of clouds and light rains on Tuesday, 27th. Rise in day temperatures (above 38c) after Wednesday as overall heat increases.
Heat wave expected later in the week on Friday/Saturday.
Karachi: After a partly cloudy Monday, the rest of the week will be clear. The days will be dominated by NW winds, which may become strong and gusty towards Thursday and Friday, and could be dust raising. The temperature range will be around 34c till the end of the week, and a slight increase thereafter.


Nepal:
Kathmandu: Neeraj kept us posted of the city's weather throughout last week. The day's had heated up last week crossed 31c, a bit unusual for this time. However, I see the temperatures have stabilising between 27c and 12c. Next week being dry, I would estimate normal temperatures for the Capital.


Last week's Vagaries' forecast turned out to be almost 70% accurate point by point.



Saturday, March 24, 2012


Mumbai: Vagaries had "warned" Mumbai of hot ,dry winds "getting stronger", and the day temperature shooting up to 38c (see wednesday's blog).


Well, it WAS hot and dry on Saturday. Hot winds geared up the day's high to 39.5c, beating the prediction by a degree, and a low humidity of only 13%.
Mumbai Colaba was at a high of 35.5c, and my readings at Breach Candy recorded a high of 35.8c. 


As per Vagaries, Sunday may continue with a high of 38/39c, with hot winds dominating, and low humidity adding to the dryness. Could expect the NE winds to bring down the humidity to 15-20%.
This is again like before, a temporary rise. Monday promises to be better with the high scaling down to around 35c.


More of that in our weekly forecast to be put up in the evening.


Pune was marginally higher as predicted at 38c. But, Surat shot up to 39.8c on Saturday. Should come down to 36c by Monday.


Karachi and Sukkar are still in the "pleasant" range. With a low of 15c at Sukkar, and 18c at Karachi, I would say the regions around are enjoying an extended low temperature period. The highest in Sindh touched 40c at Mithi on Saturday.


Vagaries will be starting the Monsoon Watch series as usual by 10th of April. 


SWM quantum and dates will be discussed in our Monsoon Watch Series. I would justify with the synoptic situations and weather behavioural patterns changes from day to day.

Friday, March 23, 2012

Heat increases in the "pink" belt shown in Vagaries' weekly forecast map. Solapur along the line reaches 41.3c and Kurnool 41.2c. Pune, too, somewhat in the range was forecasted to heat up from Friday, and touched 38c today (Friday).
Nagpur hovering around 40c.
Mumbai gets hotter on Friday by reaching 35.3c. 

Western disturbance M-6, approaching Northern India. Over Northern Pakistan on Saturday and into India by Sunday.

Clouding seen along the trough line in Interior Karnataka and Southern Interior Mah. on Friday.

Friend and Rainfall Statistics Expert Pradeep, has put up a very interesting Poll for Vagaries' readers. It is also available on his blog.
Pradeep and Myself are following the results of this poll very eagerly. 

Please make your choice, as it would be interesting to know reader's opinion. 


On 23 March, the World Meteorological Organization, its 189 Members and the worldwide meteorological community celebrate World Meteorological Day. This day commemorates the entry into force, on that date in 1950, of the WMO Convention creating the Organization. Subsequently, in 1951, WMO was designated a specialized agency of the United Nations System.
All the Best to the Vagaries' Meteorology Community and other meteorologists around the World... Let's inter -act More to be of use and help all around us !


Thursday, March 22, 2012

Wednesday, March 21, 2012


Mumbai Forecast
The dust cloud gets thinner on Thursday, and visibility will improve ( more than 2 kms ) as the winds change direction. 
Current visibility @ 10.00 pm is 1.8 kms.


Thursday: Day temperature will be around 34/35c and night ( Thursday Morning low) will be 20c. Winds will divert slightly to NE position and will see a nominal rise in day's heat as humidity level remains low. Dust cloud visibility will improve from Wednesday's situation.
Friday: As NE winds continue, the day temperature will rise to 36c, and dry heat will be felt.
Saturday/Sunday: Hot dry winds get stronger, and the day's heat increases to 37/38c. Low  (night) temperatures will be around 22c on the weekend. 


Pune:
Thursday/Friday: days will be in the current range of 37c, with nights still having the slight nip, being low at 15/16c.
Saturday/Sunday : Could see some warming up, specially the nights get warmer to around 18c.

Nagpur: Touched a high of 40.6c today. Expecting the days to remain around the 40/41c mark next few days.


The trough explained in the weekly forecast (Sunday Post) will keep the region marked in "pink" warm this weekend.






The Thai map shows the trough embedded with a weak low. 
Clouds will "pop up" in S.I. Mah and Interior Karnataka. Some isolated thunder possible on the weekend in this region.

Update 8.15 pm



The isobars seen from this Thai map show more spacing, hence winds are slowing down. A trough is running across A.P. and Southern Mah.

Mumbai saw maximum density of the dust cloud in the afternoon, and then it was gradually thinning out. Latest position ( at 7.30 pm IST) shows NW winds blowing and visibility at visibility again down to 1000 mts.
A suspect dust cloud is forming in N.Africa (Egypt). Will be observing this too.
Mumbai forecast for week tonite.

Update 3.30 pm IST:

Dust and Sand Concentrated in West Rajasthan and adjoining Southern Interior Sindh (Pakistan).
Wind Strength diminishes in NW India. Dust/Sand likely to become sparse within 12 hrs. Jaisalmer sees a humidity of 4% today afternoon.

Thinning of dust around Mumbai from evening today. Visibility lowest at 900 mtrs at 2.30 pm improves to 1300 mtrs by 4 pm. Humidity at 21%.
Fall in night temperatures compared to last nights minimum by 2/3c. 
Detailed Mumbai forecast tonite (10 pm). Expect variation by weekend !

Had a detailed discussion with Akshay (METD) and he has  superbly compiled and animated the Image. The trough line expected and mentioned in Vagaries' Weekly Forecast is also seen forming.

Sand Plumes take a perpendicular direction along N.Mah. Coast as winds change to North Direction.Though scattering, Mumbai will see haze and dust covering sky by afternoon. Visibility expected to drop to 800 mts. And hazy sun (75%).




SHAN FASTIAN SENDS THIS WONDERFUL PHOTO FROM ISLAMABAD,PAKISTAN . THE PHOTO WAS TAKEN AT 04PM LT,20TH MARCH 2012. BORROWED FROM METD



Tuesday, March 20, 2012


The dust storm from the West Asian Region moved into Pakistan and Western India on Tuesday, and moved NE later. 


The reason for this directional movement is the 
1)  The eastwards movement of M-5. As mentioned in Vagaries' weekly forecast put up on Sunday, M-5 is moving away and is expected to fizzle out by Wednesday. This system has attracted the winds from the SW, and unfortunately, it was laden with sand/dust from the Middle East.

2) The pressure gradient from the Northern Kashmir region to Southern Sindh/Gujarat was steep. There was a marked difference in pressures. This allowed the isobars to be closely concentrated (see Thai map above). And such concentric closely formed isobars are bound to generate very strong winds along its axis. 


Kashmir region was gushed by winds between 50-60 kmph on Tuesday. The winds were in fact SW, and attracted much sand and warm air from the Arabian Sea. So much so, that the day's high in Srinagar was 21c, 6c above normal, and the low was 15.7c, 12c above normal !! With some rain of-course.


This caused the dust to cover an area from Gujarat to Kashmir, including Delhi.Now, in the evening, it is concentrated in the NW regions.






Parts of Sindh and Karachi was  swept by winds upto 35 kmph and blowing dust and sand. Sukkar too was windy and dusty, with the day temperature dropping to 30c. Nawabshah dropped from 40c on Monday to 31c on Tuesday ! 


Dust will clear by Wednesday from Pakistan and Northern India.
As M-5 moves away, and the pressure gradient "flattens", actually, the West blowing winds will "move" eastwards towards the U.P. Plains and Southern Nepal. But without much of dusty conditions.

Latest on the Sand Storm Movement..Image as on 11.30 am (IST) Tuesday

Monday, March 19, 2012







Importance of Monsoon Forecast for India:


Indian economy is basically an agriculture based, and agri business and economy depend a lot on the South West Monsoon. Agriculture contributes a major part to the GDP.
Hence, getting information and forecast of the Monsoon to the farmers and concerned departments well in advance is of prime importance. The agri industries need to plan cropping patterns and farmers need to plan purchase and storage of seeds and fertilisers.


Now, IMD issues its first SWM forecast in mid April. The April forecast indicates the likely amount of rain throughout India , on the whole, and does not detail its distribution region wise. 
A forecast of regional distribution is necassary for water management and reservoir capacity storage. 
The second forecast and rain estimate is issued in June. By that time, sowing is already complete, and an adverse situation could be disastrous. Saving water stressed seedlings becomes a priority with urgent irrigation. The SWM is half over by then.


Vagaries' Views:


The SWM forecast should be issued earliest by begining April. It could be made by analysing the weather developing situation as on that date in early April, and susequently monitor the developments as they happen and issue comments on how the monsoon is likely to progress.  The  Monsoon Watch series in Vagaries begins with this concept..and charting the progress periodically, the Monsoon Watch Series indicates the +ves and the -ves in the ensuing proress. 
Initially Vagaries (MW Series) forecasts only the arrival date. And that is of prime importance. A belated advance could be fore warned, and help the farmer in deleaying the sowing and saving his crops. Or later, a prolonged withdrawal could be bad for the crops too. 


The quantum is taken up later on.
Though a proper estimate of quantum of rain and regional distribution must be estimated. If, for example, we have 120% of the normal precipitation, that is 20% excess, in say the western state of Gujarat, and say, 80% normal, or 20% deficient in another state, IMD would declare a "normal" monsoon. That is because it takes the figures from the country as a whole. This, I feel depicts a wrong picture.


The most dangerous, or risky, is the " break Monsoon" in the middle of the season. This has to be estimated and informed as correctly as possible, as it holds the key to proper crop and water planning.
In such cases the agriculture ministry must be prepared to support proper irrigation and supply in July or August.
For such forewarnings, the IMD issues a forecasted estimate by the time the Monsoon is half over.


Now, recently,The Japanese Agency for Marine Earth Science and Tech. and another international agency IRI at Columbia, have forecasted a below normal SWM for 2012. A third, U.K Met office sees the chances of a normal Monsoon at only 40%. In fact, they have forecasted a slow down in July.


Whether true or false, our Govt. should take note of this seriously, and be prepared with the necassary steps to be taken. We just cannot wait till the IMD issues its "vague" forecasts. 


IMD maintains that it (SWM) cannot be forecasted so early, and that the Indian Monsoon system is too complicated. But let us understand, these foreign agencies have a track record.


In contrast, just last year, IMD had issued 10 forecasts. (April, June, 4 regional forecasts, on Aug 1st and on September 1st). Out of these 10, 7 were off the mark and 3 were in line.


We cannot take risks with such an important event (SWM). An event that makes or breaks Indian Agriculture and Economy.







Saturday, March 17, 2012

Akshay has put up his summer forecast for India. A technical version and a summarised version is put up. Check it on his blog here.

Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast  for  the  week 19th March to  25th  March.


This week, on Monday,19th and Tuesday 20th, another W.D, (M-5) is to move through from Northern Pakistan into Kashmir and H.P.
Though slightly weak, we can expect rains in Kashmir and H.P. with snow on the higher hills of both states from Monday for a couple of days.
Rest of the week after the 21st will be dry for the Northern States.


As an aftermath, North winds will be strong in Western and Central India from Tuesday. Thus raising the day temperatures by a couple of degrees after Tuesday. However, nights on the other hand will drop by a couple of degrees in North and Cehtral India plains initially in the begining of the week.






A trough runs from Konkan to W.Bengal from Wednesday thru Friday. There will be no rains in the region, but the NW winds and S winds will converge along the line. 
Day temperatures will rise to 38/40c along the line (see vagaries' map).


Mumbai: Next Week will see steady day temperatures with no large unusual fluctuations. In fact, as N winds dominate from Tuesday, we may see days around 32/33c at S'Cruz., and even lower at 31c for Colaba. However, nights will be gearing up into the low 20s. 
Pune: Days hovering around 37c till mid week with the lows at 14/15c. After Wednesday we see the day temperatures rising a bit.


Delhi: With strong NW winds on Tuesday, we see the day time temperatures will be around 33c on Monday and Tuesday. NW winds will keep a steady temperature of 33/34c through this week.


Chennai: Winds will be from the South this coming week. Stronger S winds may prevail on Monday/Tuesday. Dry weather will keep the days in the 34/35c range.


Kathmandu; Prolonged M-3 effect in Kathmandu, with the capital getting rains again on Friday and drizzles on Saturday.
Again, no effect of M-5 over Nepal. Till Wed, the NW gusts in Plains of India may keep the weather pleasant with the days below 25c. 
Dry weather will see the day temperatures tending to rise after mid week. 


Karachi: Strong N winds will keep the day temperature moderate at 31c. After Tuesday, winds turn NE, and the desert winds will result in a rise in day temperatures to 34/35c from Tuesday.


Sukkar: Days will get to 36c or more after Wednesday as the winds from the N/NE blow from hot regions.
Some Interior Sindh regions or Balochistan cities to touch 40c by Tuesday/Wednesday.


Global Warming Hysteria Page Updated...Today

Thursday, March 15, 2012


After M-3, in a surprise development, M-4 is moving into the Northern states of India. Though weak, M-4 is expected to precipitate rains and snow in Kashmir and Upper H.P. on Friday and Saturday.


Mumbai Day temperatures dropped from 37.5c on Wed to 35.5c at S'Cruz and substantially from 35.5c on Wed to 32c on Thursday at Mumbai Colaba. N winds in action. 
With the high pressure forming in the A.Sea, the NW winds stabilise on Friday, the day temperatures in Mumbai will go down a bit more. 
In fact, strong N winds on Sat and Sunday will keep the days around 32c on the weekend.


Dry for Chennai and S winds gain as the high forms in the Bay.


Highest in India on Thursday: Ramagundam and Kurnool at 38.8c.


Kathmandu received loght rains today, and that kept the day cool at 23.5c, and night dropping to 6.5c. M-4 is not expected to have any effect in Nepal.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Mumbai S'Cruz on Wednesday: 37.5c. Mumbai Colaba today: 35.5c. Vagaries had forecasted a rise for Tues/Wed up tp 36c. Should ease tomorrow (Thursday) as the winds turn North again. 
Ratnagiri on Wednesday : 39.7c ! Pune : 35.1c.



Tuesday and Wednesday..The two hot days predicted for Mumbai.Tuesday was 34c, and now on Wed, 33c at 11 pm ! Heading for 36c it seems !


Tuesday, March 13, 2012


Continuing from Sunday's weekly Forecast...
Two days into the week, and we see things moving totally in tune with our weekly forecasts.
M-3 moved into Nepal after precipitating rains and snow in Kashmir, H.P. and parts of Utteranchal.
In H.P, Shimla and Manali received mild snowfall early Tuesday. Shimla's commercial centre Mall Road, the Ridge, the US Club and Jakhu hills received snowfall, while lower areas of the town experienced rain.


Kufri and Narkanda have experienced moderate snowfall. Manali also received snowfall. High-altitude areas of Lahaul and Spiti, Chamba, Mandi, Kullu, Kinnaur also had snow on Tuesday.
Higher reaches of the Himalayas in Uttarakhand on Tuesday received snowfall, while the lower areas experienced light to moderate rains.The higher reaches of Garhwal, including Badrinath, Kedarnath and Yamunotri, received snowfall.
In Kumaon region, Munsiary and Dharchula experienced snowfall. 
The state capital Dehra Dun also received light showers. 


Kathmandu was cloudy and got the Tuesday rains, and with the day at 21c, down from 27c, it was cool with the nights "clouding up" to 11.7c. Actually its difficult to get the right forecast for this Himalayan Capital.
Expecting to clear up and see a drop in  night temperatures.


Delhi too was following its schedule with drizzles on Monday night/Tuesday morning. And with a marginal fall in the day from 30c to 27c (in spite of the political heat), it was better off. Night temperature on Tuesday morning was 15c (16c was forecasted).
Forecast for next few days expected to tow the line as mentioned in the weekly forecast.


Mumbai: At it again. Showed its fluctuation, with the day shooting up to 34c (forecasted 35/36c) on Tuesday. 
A reader actually  Mailed me  to ask "why fluctuate Temperatures this week? Its very confusing". Not able to correctly get his meaning though .-:)). 
As explained in the weekly forecast, this rise was a result of the NE winds which dominated most of the day on Tuesday. Tuesday morninf saw a low of 19c (forecasted 19/20c). 
No change in the outlook for Wed/Thursday.


Pune: Refused to give in to the 2 day warming tendency, seen all around. Day's high was stuck at 34c (36c expected) and the night stubbornly at 12.8c (16c). Lets see if Pune wants to go its own way next 2 days or tow vagaries' line  -:))


Bangalore: Clouds have appeared over the city, with light drizzles.


Chennai: Got its rain on Monday, but much below expectations. Only 1.6 mms. Elsewhere in the state, Nagapatinam got 2 cms and Pamban 1cm. Forecast hold good for Wed/Thursday.


Bharuch: And I expected Gujarat to be difficult ! Bit no, Bharuch was 34c (estimated ) on Tuesday, a sure rise from Sunday. Should get cooler from Thursday.


An interesting observation between Mumbai and Bangalore for the last 1 month.
3 Cities' Average Temperatures (Day/Night combined) from 10 February to 10 March:  
Bangalore: Normal Average:24.6c,  Actual Temperature was 25.7c
Mumbai 10 feb to 10 mar : Normal Average:25.4c.  Actual was 24.3c.
Ratnagiri :Normal Average: 25.7c. Actual Temperatures: 24.6c. ( This city details put up to justify any delay in our favourite Alphonso Mango arrivals).


Karachi: Though the city did see strong SW winds from the evening on Tuesday, did not expect the day to rise to 31c. Was expecting 29c at the most. And nights were also higher at 16c.


Sukkar: The city saw its light rains on Monday, and the day temperature is maintained at 29c as expected (30c was forecasted). However, nights are marginally higher at 15c (against 13c) due to lingering clouds.
Highest in the interiors of Balochistan and Sindh is still at 32.5c at Mirpurkhas.

Sunday, March 11, 2012




Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast for  the  week 12th March to  18th  March.








M-2 moves away, and back to back M-3 follows. The W.D enters the sub-continent from Pakistan on Sunday, 11th March. Precipitating rains in the Northern plains and light rains in upper Sindh, it will move into India on Monday.
Monday will be wet in Northern Indian States of Kashmir, H.P. and Utteranchal. Snow would be heavy on the higher ranges and in Gulmarg. On Monday and Tuesday, due to good feeding, we see M-3 sliding into central Nepal. Kathmandu will be getting showers on Tuesday.


Monday will see NW winds lashing the Northern plains of India, Gujarat and central India. Tuesday will be warmer in central India with NE winds.


By Thursday, the 15th of March, two prominent high presuure systems dominate on either side of the Indian Peninsula, one in the Arabian Sea, and another in the Bay. This will initiate the NW winds over Gujarat and Western India with greater gusts. It will be very windy (SW) along the Orissa and W.Bengal coast. Kolkata will be windy on Thursday.
Westerly winds will sweep the Sindh coastline on Thursday and Friday.


Long Range City Forecasts for the week:


Mumbai
A bit of fluctuations expected in temperatures next week.
Monday: Variable winds in the day, becoming NW by early evening. Day will be 32c and Morning on Monday wil be 15c.
Tuesday/Wednesday : Winds divert to the NE direction, raising the day temperatures. Days will rise to 35/36c while nights ( Tuesday morning) will be 19/20c.
Thursday: With NW winds returning, Mumbai may see a fall in day temperature from 35c to 31c, and night may drop to 17/18c again.


Pune: Monday/Tuesday: Day and night temperatures rising to 36c levels, and nights also going up to 16c.
Wed/Thursday:  Some respite from the high temperatures as day could fall marginally to 33c, but nights could drop to 13c.


Delhi: Monday/Tuesday: After rising on Sunday, the day temperatures could fall marginally again . Monday will be partly cloudy, with drizzles from M-3. Nights will go up to 16c . Windy with N winds dominating.Fall in nights from Wednesday.


Bangalore: A UAC forms, around S.I. Karnataka by Tuesday. Cloudy weather on Tuesday with light rains on Wednesday.


Chennai: As a weak easterly wave moves westwards, it is strenghtened by a UAC which will form over S.I. Karnataka. Inflow of moisture and clouds will bring rains on Monday to South T.N. and Chennai. Upto 5-10 mms could be expected in the city. 
The rain spell will last for a couple of days. The rain bearing easterlies will change course as the high forms over the Bay from Wednesday. 
Winds will turn SE from Thursday.
Early in the week, low temperatures will be around 25c, but revert back to 23c after Wednesday.


Bharuch: Warming up on Mon/Tuesday, but easing on Wed and Thursday when it will be cooler by 2/3c again .Very windy on Friday.


Kathmandu: Showers for Kathmandu on Monday night and Tuesday. Around 5-10 mms possible. Lower day temperature possible ( from the current 27c) as it gets cloudy from Monday. Nights will be around 8c.A slight fall in nights after Wednesday.


Karachi: Monday will be partly cloudy and cool with N winds dominating most of the time . Temperatures will be 29 - 13c.
Tuesday onwards, west winds will be strong, and would be gusty along the Sindh coastline. Would keep temperatures below the normal.


Sukkar: M-3 could bring some rain on Monday, and the day will be cooler at  26c. After M-3 moves away on Monday, the temperatures would remain below normal till Wednesday. Around 30c and 13c would be expected. Rising trends after Wednesday.
Interior Sindh and Balochistan regions are now much in a comfortable range, as the days would normally go up to 35/36c by 11th March. But still hovering around 32c, is good. These interior temperatures could reach 37c by the week end. 



Geomagnetic Storming expected today,Major one expected on 12th..very interesting write by Akshay for those interested in this forthcoming event. See his blog here.



Saturday, March 10, 2012

Mumbai Topples its own Record for March ! 13.4c recorded on 1st March 2012. 
Today, 10th March saw Mumbai S'Cruz dipping to 12.7c, another record broken in 10 days.
Today, Colaba was at 18.0c, also lower than 1st March's 18.4c. 
Nasik and Ahmednagar were 8.0c , 6below normal for Nasik and 9c below for A'Nagar. Pune low was 10.1c.



Friday, March 09, 2012

M-2 becomes active, maybe a day earlier than schedule, and precipitates snow in H.P.  As M-2 moves away, M-3 trots in on Monday.


While Shimla saw a light spell of snowfall, upper areas like Kufri and Narkanda saw moderate snowfall. Manali, too, received mild snow.
The high hills in Lahaul and Spiti, Kinnaur, Kullu, Shimla and Chamba districts have been experiencing light to moderate snowfall since Thursday morning thru Friday.
The minimum temperature in Shimla was recorded at 1.7c, while the maximum was 10.7c.
Keylong  was the coldest place in the state where the minimum temperature was -11c. The town recorded three cm of snowfall.
Kalpa in Kinnaur district, which also recorded snow, saw a low of -4.2c, while it was -3.6c in Manali and 5.5c in Dharamsala.


In Kashmir, Gulmarg was coldest at -12c (-8c below normal), and Pahalgam shivered at -8.4c on Friday morning. Leh on Friday saw -7.4c.
Srinagar with 0c as the minimum saw 3.4 mms of rain on Friday  as the day's temperature topped 11c.


And, this weekend, Gulmarg is set and decking up for the "Gulmarg Winter Festival 2012". Ironically, The unique festival will see a mix of food, music and adventure from across the country this weekend, to conclude this year's winter season.


We also have colder than normal conditions prevailing down in the plains of India too. In Rajasthan, day temperatures were 8c below normal on Friday, with major cities like Udaipur and Kota rcording a day's high of 25c, 6/7c below normal. Jaipur was cool at 11c in the morning. M-3 clouding will raise the night temps from Monday.


It is a virtual cold wave in Central Maharashtra. With temperatures up to 10c below normal, like at Ahmednagar, we have below normal lows in Pune and Nasik, both which at 10.6c was 5 c below normal.
Even Mumbai at 16.5c on Friday morning, is 4c below normal along the coast, Ratnagiri was unusually cold at 15c (7c below normal) on Friday morning.



The IMD max and minimum temperature anomaly map of 9th March shows most of India below normal in the day. Things seem to be quite cool for this time of the year, with the "Below Normal" hue spreading over most of the peninsula and Northern region. 


The day and nights  in Rajasthan and coastal Konkan regions show an abnormally cooler trend.  The higher minimums are struggling to move Northwards from the Southern most areas of the peninsula.


Across the border, a cool trend is observed in Sindh and Punjab(Pakistan) regions. Karachi is at 11c on Friday morning, with Sukkar seeing 13c. In Balochistan, the normally hotspot Sibi, was at 6c as the low on Friday morning. Islamabad measured 4c today.


City forecasts for Saturday and Sunday:


Delhi: things change for Delhi on Sunday, 11th. March. For a day, as the winds turn from the current NW to a SE direction, day will get warm (around 27c) with light clouds. But winds should revert back to NW by Tuesday.


Mumbai will continue to get NW winds on the weekend. Saturday  will be 31c and Sunday maybe a degree more. and both Sat/Sun nights will be at 17/18c.Saturday morning will drop a bit to 15c at S'Cruz and 18c at Colaba.  Winds could revert to Easterlies on Wednesday, 14th. More of that on sunday's weekly forecast.


Pune: It will be cold in the night with Saturday morning showing 10/11c  and Sunday morning reading 13c. Days will be around 31/32c both the days.


Bangalore: A weak "local" UAC could form over S.I. Karnataka on Sunday. Some clouding and overcast weather for the city on Sunday.


Bharuch: I think the Friday's range in Bharuch could be 31c and 16c. For Saturday I see the temperatures at 31c and 16c and Sunday a degree warmer.


Karachi: With dry gusty winds in the evening, Friday was windy with low humidity. 
The temperature range of 31 - 11c will be and Saturday morning will be a bit warmer at 13c, as winds will be strong in the evening from W/SW direction.

Sukkar: will see the cooling effect this weekend as M-2 moves away. Days will be a bit better at 28c on Saturday and Sunday morning will be cool at 13c.Weekend will be below normal for this time of the year. Monday will see the next system, M-3, bringing clouds.


A dust/sand storm would blow over Dubai on Saturday. Nights will be around 15c.



Thursday, March 08, 2012



Huge Dust Devil on Mars Captured in Action..See Space News Page.




Ahmednagar's Beats own Record the next day, 8th March with a low of 7.3c !
And Pune is at 10.4c on 8th March, 5c below normal.



Another March Cold Record in Maharashtra:


By touching 7.4c, Ahmednagar recorded its lowest March temperature evr on Wednesday. 7th March 2012. (Point No.3 of Vagaries' Sunday's Weekly Forecast). The previous low was 7.5c recorded on 17th March 1980.


M-2 is approaching the northern regions of the sub-continent. On Saturday 10th, Would expect the W.D. to precipitate snow in the extreme Northern regions of Pakistan and rains in the Northern hills and plains of Pakistan. Could expect clouding to light rains in upper Sindh too.
Temperatures in Islamabad likely to fall on Saturday. 


Sindh is in a comfortable temperature range for this time of the year. With the highest around 32/33c. Sukkar is in the 28-11 range, very pleasant for this time. Likely to remain cloudy on Saturday. temperatures will be around 30c - 14c this week till M-2 moves away.


M-2 would move iinto Indian states of Kashmir, H.P. and Utteranchal on Sunday 11th. Likely to precipitate snow in the higher ranges and good rainfall in the lower hills of Kashmir and H.P. on Sunday. 


By Monday, the system would slide into Western Nepal and bring good rains/snow there. 
Kathmandu will get rains on Monday, 12th/Tuesday 13th, lowering the temperatures.



Westerly winds will continue to keep the day temperatures at the current levels in Gujarat and Konkan and Central regions of Mah.


With West winds, Mumbai will be around 32c in the day and 19c at night on Thursday/Friday and Saturday.


Strong winds raising a local sandstorm likely to lash Dubai on Sunday. Winds could be gusty.

Sunday, March 04, 2012



Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast for  the  week 4th March to   11th  March.
1. M-1 moves across northern regions of sub-continent. Moves thru Kashmir and H.P. on Sunday and Monday.Spreads to Nepal on Tuesday, but restricted to Western regions.Kathmandu cloudy during this period. Rise in night temperatures. M-1 moves away by Tuesday.

2.  A high presuure in the Arabian Sea combined with the moving away of the W.D, NW winds continue to dominate the North-West regions and Central India. High pressure fades away after Wednesday. Till then, will bring strong W winds to Sindh coast and Kutch and Saurashtra regions.


3.   NW winds will blow into the Konkan and Interior Mah and prominenetly in Gujarat on Tuesday and Wednesday.

4.  Real rise in day temperayures will take place in Vidarbh, N.Interior Andhra and interior Karnataka from Friday.
   Days remain in the near normal range in India in the first   of  the week.Nights could be below normal in NW, Central and Western India. 
   
   
5. For Pakistan Sindh region will be dry, and heating gradually from Wednesday onwards. Hot spots likely to reach 38c by week end.

This was February 2012 in the Sub-Continent: