Posted 31st October ...Night

Severe Cyclone "Maha"

Date/Time: 31.10.19/1730 
Location:12.8/72.2 
Estimated Winds:100-110 gusting to 120 

Rare Study of 2 cyclones together in the Arabian Sea...Check the 850 winds and the 925 winds.
See and notice the Binary winds between the 2 systems.

 Now, observe the formation of the trough in the 200 hpa Jet Streams ( Normally Deciding Factor)) and contemplate the track.

 And Finally, the Estimated track as per HWRF..Feasible as it seems now

Maha is projected to turn NW after crossing the 13N line (approximately). 
Then, Mumbai will just miss the rainfall swath area. If however, the turn happens after 15/16N, Mumbai may get showers.

Salient Features of Super Cyclone Kyarr (Oct 2019)

It is 2nd cyclone in Arabian Sea to attain a 'Super Cyclone' status after Cyclone Gonu (in June 2007) which was 1st Super Cyclone in Arabian Sea ever since the observation started !

And turns out to be 9th Super Cyclone for North Indian Ocean basin. Rest 7 Super Cyclone were hosted by Bay of Bengal before year 2000!

Also Kyarr by deepening till 915 mb, broken the Gonu record of 920 mb !! So turns out to be strongest Cyclone ever in Arabian Sea since observation started !

But just missed the Odisha 1999 super cyclone status record as it saw pressure deepening till 912 mb.. And with this Kyarr, becomes 2nd strongest cyclone in N. Indian ocean ever till now !



Now another breaking news is that Cyclone MAHA has formed officially!! So 2 cyclones churning at same time in Arabian sea..is Indeed rare sight !!

Again unique feature of 2019! After witnessing uniqueness of huge deficit start for June to excess end in Sep by SWM 2019.

Posted 30th October Night:

Rarely seen... 2 cyclones at a time in the Arabian Sea.... KYAAR AND MAHA

Unique 2019 season 

Observed for the first time in my 55 years of weather watching 

Posted 30th Wednesday Afternoon:

AS-5 now a depression  390 Kms E/SE of Lakhadweep Islands. Tracking N/NW along coast initially and strengthening.

Wednesday 30th will see heavy rains in the Islands and Kerala. Also in TN. Some regions of Saurashtra will get thunder showers.

Thursday 31st rains heavy in Kerala and coastal Karnataka, and Telengana.
Friday 1st November, rains increasing in Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Konkan . 

Mumbai/Pune: Partly cloudy Wednesday. 
Thursday 31st: Thunder shower possible by evening. 
Rains on the increase on Friday & Saturday 1st/2nd  November. thunder shower possible in the evening 

Light rains in parts of Surat till Saturday.
Goa to get showers till Friday 1st November

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted 29th night
 Kyaar started weakening after crossing 65E. Had mentioned last week due to drier air interaction.
But still winds estimated at 160 kmph, with 190 kmph gusts.
Heading towards South Oman and weakening.

AS 5 well marked now over Comorin, about 550 kms South of Kochi
.. To deepen and move N/NW...

Forecast tomorrow 30th by noon. 

Posted Friday 25th Night 11 pm IST

Severe Cyclone "Kyaar"

Current Analysis -----ADT Version

 
Date :  25 OCT 2019   Time :   154500 UTC
      Lat :   16:25:48 N     Lon :   71:46:39 E....

(190 Kms West of Ratnigiri and 

330 kms South/South-west of Mumbai)

CI#       /Pressure       / Vmax
3.8      / 985.1mb       / 61.0kt


Center Temp : -85.3C    Cloud Region Temp : -84.8C

As Mentioned. as Kyaar tracks West/North West, 

it will enter into drier air after 65E and may
weaken.

The Upper troposphere ridge lies at 18N, hence the 

current track. 

The ridge weakens next 12 hrs, hence the track will be W/NW.

Rains forecast given below...

Posted Friday 25th Afternoon:

Projected paths are many by different Models...But the path according to Vagaries is maintained as shown below...

Look at the dry air waiting in the West ! Surely will weaken the Cyclone "Kyaar" after stage 3.

Dry air starts fro shade s of Blue.

Mumbai: Rains continue at moderate rate, ( upto 15 mms /day next 2 days) but expect a heavy shower on Friday night in some parts. 

Decrease after Sunday. 

Another system coming from Bay may increase rains later next week.

Pune: Rains continue at moderate rate, ( upto 1-7 mms /day next 2 days) but expect a heavy shower on Friday night in some parts. 

Decrease after Sunday. 

Another system coming from Bay may increase rains later next week.

{Expected heavy spell for Pune did not materialise expect for day long drizzles on Thursday/Friday Night. 

Due to the SW winds not penetrating inland as the convective band of the Depression was compact in the Easter quadrant. Easterly winds were too weak also.}

Chances good of Kathiawar Rains this weekend.

Chennai to get good rains post Sunday as new system forms.

Posted Wednesday 23rd afternoon:

Alert for Pune !
According to developments and indications today, there is a possibility of The System AS-4 moving N/NE, and coming SW of Mumbai. SW winds will interact inland over Madhya Maharashtra  with Easterlies ....Hence

Heavy rains with thunder  in Pune Region from Wednesday 23rd evening . Thursday 24th day will be getting intermittent rains and heavy in evening. Friday 25th will also see occasional rain with heavy spells. 
Accumulated rainfall from Thursday evening to Friday morning will be more than 100 mms.
Day will be cool at 23c on Thursday and Friday.

Mumbai will get light to moderate rains Wednesday 23rd thru Friday 25th, daily around 5-15 mms. Slight increase on Thursday night.

Heavy showers expected in Roha/Panvel areas.
Aurangabad will get moderate rains on Thursday, with heavy showers on Thursday Night and Friday evening.

Saurashtra Coast and South Gujarat coast to get sporadic thunder showers, and moderate rains next 2 days.

Wednesday Morning 08.30 am IST Position

Posted Tuesday 22nd Afternoon:

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is currently in phase 2 with amplitude more than 1 till 24th.  It will remain in  phase 2 from the 24th till 28th with amplitude more than 1. 

Afterwards it is likely to remain in phase-2 with amplitude less than 1. 

Thus MJO phase will support enhancement of convective activity over the Arabian Sea (AS) from 25th onwards..

Mumbai: Rain shower on Tuesday and Wednesday, with  a few heavy in some parts.

Pune will get heavy rains on Wednesday..special attention !

Light rains in Surat next 2 days...thereafter ceases.

Posted Monday Afternoon:

Another Cyclone in Arabian Sea  ??

Mumbai: Mumbai rains to continue till Wednesday, another 2/3 days.
Monday 21st: Chance of a Thunder shower in the Night.
Tuesday 22nd?Wednesday 23rd:: Showers of moderate intensity , with gusty winds. 

Pune: Frequent Moderate showers  on Monday 21st/ Tuesday 22nd/ Wed 23rd.. Showers in some areas may be moderately heavy .

Goa: Heavy showers on Tuesday.

Light rains in South Gujarat expected till Wednesday, with the approaching system AS-4.

Posted Saturday afternoon 19th

Some more available heavy rainfall data ending 8:30 am today.

#Nanded
Sundgi 122 mm
Gonegaon 120 mm
Degloor 100 mm

#Osmanabad
Awadshirpur 112 mm
Washi 82 mm
Paranda 80 mm
Kalamb 70 mm
Pangaon 67 mm

#Sindhudurg
Sawantwadi 100 mm
Devgad 90 mm

Bandalgi (#Solapur) 84 mm
From Abhijit

As mentioned, the Arabian Sea low, AS-4,has formed.
 The resultant south winds from the low interact with the Easterly winds and formed a weak trough along the West coast ,but inland due to interaction.

Hence the rains along the coast and interior Maharashtra.

Rains will continue for another 3 days as AS4 becomes more marked.


Mumbai got the expected rains. Likely with thunder on Sunday and Monday. Rains decrease all over after 3 days.. By Wednesday.

Pune to get heavy rain on Sunday and then moderate till Wednesday.
South Gujarat will get its share next few days. 

Posted 17th Thursday morning :
Southwest monsoon has withdrawn
 from the entire country and northeast monsoon rains have commenced over Tamilnadu & adjoining areas
But, a post monsoon low in the Arabian Sea forming at 70E and 10N on Thursday is likely to track N/NW.

Weekend rains likely in interiors of Maharashtra including Marathwada.
Maharashtra on Monday will be cloudy with showers.
Monday will see occasional light to medium rain.

Pune : Rains from Friday evening and Saturday light and medium thunder showers. Cool Sunday maximum at 25c.with thunder showers. 
Around 35-50 mms Friday - Monday 
Rains stretching in Mumbai and pune into next week. 

Mumbai : Rains on the weekend with some rain showers from Friday evening. Saturday will see light to moderate rains in many parts. 
Sunday will be cloudy and pleasant with intermittent showers.
Around 20-35 mms Friday - Monday. . 

Posted Tuesday 15th temperatures 

West Coast sees rise in temp as easterlies prevailing!

Some max temp in °C for today

Valsad 36.9
Ratnagiri 36.8
Alibaug & Surat 36.7
Mumbai Scz 36.6
Colaba 36.4
Dahanu 35.5
Panaji & Harnai 35.2

Rajasthan Churu was highest at 39c,Barmer 38c.

Info credit Abhijit Modak 

Posted Sunday 13th October:

With the reversal of winds in the Peninsula region to Easterlies, the south West Monsoon has seen rapid withdrawal. 
The Estimated approximate withdrawal line as on 14th is shown in the imposed IMD image.

Though we see winds easterly upto 500 hpa, 1.we do not still see the required Westerlies in the 200 hpa jet streams...not till 23rd at least.

Hence, South West Monsoon withdraws more, but a bit hesitantly below Maharshtra (by a few days). 
A complete withdrawal will take another 4/5 days , and onset of  NEM thence.

2.We see another another upper Air trough forming around the 15N region inland. This may form around the 17th/18th of this Month. 
May bring post monsoon rains to Madhya Maharastra and Karnatak next weekend.

Due to the two reasons highlighted above, the initial progress of NEM in Tamil Nadu may be weak. 
Chennai may get some rains from Thursday, but may not really pick up above 15/20 mms/day till 22nd/23rd.

Mumbai Monsoon will withdraw from Tuesday 15th...resulting in warmer days around 34/35c. 

Pune also post Monsoon will see sunny days and a nip in the night, going to 17/18c next week.
Next weekend post monsoon showers a possibility.

Vagaries exclusive .. Festive weather series..

• Part 3  ..Delhi , Dehradun , Kolkata , Bhubaneshwar , Guwahati

Past 20 years Dasra day weather averages of 16 cities..
Dasra was as early as 28 Sep and late as 
26 Oct during 1999 to 2018 period..

• Part 1 (http://www.vagaries.in/2019/10/happy-navratri.html) Mumbai , Ratnagiri , Rajkot , Nasik , Pune , Nagpur , Solapur 

• Part 2 (http://www.vagaries.in/2019/10/happy-navratri_7.html)Kochi , Chennai , Bengaluru , Hyderabad..

Dasra generally marks the end of monsoon season over most of the country.Thunderstorms can occur as the monsoon withdraws,with cyclones /disturbances making their presence felt on the eastern seaboard.

1. North India  :

Driest part of the country during Navratri.

As the month of October progresses , North India temps decrease progressively.

Dehradun is crisp,cool and dry during this season.

Dasra day weather averages of the past 20 years (1999 to 2018)

	DELHI SFD	DEHRADUN
BEFORE 15 OCT	35.1 / 22.5	31 / 19.5
ON / AFTER 15 OCT	32.6 / 18.8	28.8 / 15.2
AVERAGE TEMP	34 / 20.8	30 / 17.7
AVERAGE RAIN PER DAY	trace	trace
RAINY DAYS OUT OF 20	0	0
HIGHEST MAX	37	32.7
LOWEST MAX	27.8	26.9
max below 30 c (out of 20 days)	1 day	11 days
max above 35 c (out of 20 days)	6 days	0 days
HIGHEST MIN	24.4	22.8
LOWEST MIN	16.3	13.2
min below 20 c (out of 20 days)	0 days	15 days
min above 25 c (out of 20 days)	1 day	0 days
HIGHEST RAINFALL ON  DASRA DAY	1 mms	0.8 mms

2. East India  :

Violent thunderstorms / Cyclones may occur, especially over Orissa during this period.

Kolkata remains sultry during Navratri.

North east India is milder.But it had been really sultry and hot during Dasra 2009.

Dasra day weather averages of the past 20 years (1999 to 2018)

	KOLKATA AP	BHUBANESHWAR	GUWAHATI
BEFORE 15 OCT	33.4 / 25.7	31.3 / 24.7	32.4 / 23.9
ON / AFTER 15 OCT	33 / 23.1	32.6 / 22.9	30.6 / 21.1
AVERAGE TEMP	33.2 / 24.5	31.9 / 23.9	31.6 / 22.6
AVERAGE RAIN PER DAY	6 mms	20.5 mms	3 mms
RAINY DAYS OUT OF 20	5	9	3
HIGHEST MAX	35.5	35.9	37.8
LOWEST MAX	29.6	26.6	24
max below 30(out of 20 days)	1 day	4 days	4 days
max above 35(out of 20 days)	3 days	1 day	2 days
HIGHEST MIN	27.6	25.7	27.6
LOWEST MIN	20.5	21.6	19.3
min below 20(out of 20 days)	0 days	0 days	2 days
min above 25(out of 20 days)	9 days	3 days	1 day
HIGHEST RAINFALL ON DASRA DAY	32 mms	169 mms	37 mms

Posted October 10th Afternoon:

Monsoon Withdrawal starts from NW India on 9th October. 
This is the most delayed SWM withdrawal ever. The previous latest withdrawal was 1st October 1961 and 30th September 2007.

10/11th: Estimated withdrawal from Kutch, Rajasthan  complete, North West M.P, Delhi and West U.P.

12/14th: Central India  and Eastern India

15th/16th: Maharashtra , Mumbai.

Mumbai: Thursday 10th/Friday 11th/Saturday 12th:  Hit  /Miss Chances of Thunder Showers in any parts/area sof Mumbai. Covering the same chances for outer townships.
Sunday 13th: the odd shower, and rains withdraw from Monday 14th.

Pune : Thunder Showers on Thursday 10th and Friday 11th. Lesser on Saturday 12th. Rains withdraw from Monday 14th.

Heavy thunder showers in Hyderabad next 2 days from withdrawing Monsoon.

Cloudburst in Badlapur on Tuesday 8th (Dussera);

Massive cloudburst saw 123 mms in 65 mins ! But it was 47.7 mms recorded in 5 mins gap interval (See table).and 100 mms in 30 minutes !(Just short of record.. see in Vagaries Extreme)

Table of 5 min interval rainfall recorded by Vagarian Abhijit on his private AWS. 

Rain Rate on display: Massive 451.8 mms/hr !

Radar at the time of Cloudburst

Dussera Rains elsewhere in Mumbai:
Borivali 59 mms, Kandivali 26 mms, Ghatkopar 7 mms,Vagaries 6 mms,  Bhandup 4 mms, Scruz 3 mms, 

Matheran 59 mms, Thane 40 mms.

HAPPY NAVRATRI ..
Vagaries exclusive .. Festive weather series..
Part 2  ..Kochi , Chennai , Bengaluru , Hyderabad..

Past 20 years Dasra day weather averages of 16 cities..
Dasra was as early as 28 Sep and late as 
26 Oct during 1999 to 2018 period..

Part 1(see previous blog) ..Mumbai , Ratnagiri , Rajkot , Nasik , Pune , Nagpur , Solapur 

stay tuned for..Part 3 (on 8 oct) ..Delhi , Dehradun , Kolkata , Bhubaneshwar, Guwahati

Dasra generally marks the end of monsoon season over most of the country.Thunderstorms can occur as the monsoon withdraws,with cyclones /disturbances making their presence felt on the eastern seaboard.

1. South India coastal plains  :

Kerala coast remains range bound (around 31 / 24) and milder temperature wise during Navratri compared to the Tamilnadu coast.

Post monsoon , Kochi receives more rainfall than Chennai in October .

Along with Orissa , Kerala coast is the rainiest part of India during this season.

Dasra day weather averages of the past 20 years (1999 to 2018)

	KOCHI	CHENNAI AP
BEFORE 15 OCT	31 / 24.1	32.9 / 24.9
ON / AFTER 15 OCT	30.7 / 23.6	32.3 / 24.3
AVERAGE TEMP	30.9 / 23.9	32.6 / 24.6
AVERAGE RAIN PER DAY	26.2 mms	10.6 mms
RAINY DAYS OUT OF 20	11	6
HIGHEST MAX	32.4	35.8
LOWEST MAX	28.2	28.4
max below 30	3 days	2 days
max above 35	0 days	3 days
HIGHEST MIN	26.2	26.5
LOWEST MIN	22	22
min below 20	0 days	0 days
min above 25	1 day	7 days
HIGHEST RAINFALL ON  DASRA DAY	128 mms	94 mms

2. Deccan Plateau (South India) :

Bengaluru retains the cool monsoon type weather during Navratri.

Hyderabad has fine weather with warm days and comfy nights.

Dasra day weather averages of the past 20 years (1999 to 2018)

	BENGALURU	HYDERABAD
BEFORE 15 OCT	28.9 / 20.2	32.3 / 21.9
ON / AFTER 15 OCT	28.3 / 19.8	30.6 / 20.4
AVERAGE TEMP	28.7 / 20	31.5 / 21.3
AVERAGE RAIN PER DAY	5.2 mms	5 mms
RAINY DAYS OUT OF 20	8	6
HIGHEST MAX	31.8	35.4
LOWEST MAX	26.4	24.9
max below 30	15 days	3 days
max above 35	0 days	1 day
HIGHEST MIN	21.3	22.7
LOWEST MIN	18.4	16.8
min below 20	5 days	2 days
min above 25	0 days	0 days
HIGHEST RAINFALL ON  DASRA DAY	26 mms	37 mms