Thursday, April 30, 2015

Monsoon Watch - 3.. 2015 ....Part 1....30th April 2014..

1. ENSO:

Subsequent to writing the MW-2, we are keeping a careful watch on the El-Nino developments. Sea surface temperatures now exceed El Niño thresholds and trade winds have remained weaker than average for several weeks. This suggests some coupling between the ocean and atmosphere may be occurring. If these patterns persist or strengthen, El Niño will become established.
But, (SOI) has become less negative over the past two weeks, with values returning to neutral bounds. The latest 30-day SOI value to 26 April is -3.6

The heating does not seem to be happening at a faster rate or in a hurried manner. The last 2 weeks heating 

Niño 4       1.3ºC
Niño 3.4    1.0ºC
Niño 3       1.0ºC
Niño 1+2   1.5ºC

The majority of the models indicate Niño 3.4 SST anomalies will remain greater than or equal to +0.5C through the end of 2015


The most recent ONI value is 0.7c...(El Nino is characterised by ONI values of 0.5 or above, La Nina is characterised by -0.5 or below).


May happen that an eventual El Nino, though unavoidable, may actually form full fledged (around End July/August) the latter months of our South West Monsoon. South West Monsoon may get sluggish ( In Peninsula) after July, around August and September. Can get stronger in Northern Pakistan after August.


Indicator: -ve, as El Nino chances possible in Latter Months of Monsoon.


2. Sub-Continent Seasonal Low: 


With every passing WD, (A-6 just moved away), the seasonal Low gets a set back. But things are taking shape slowly. The seasonal trough (eastern wing) could start forming in Northern Thailand in first week of May


Seasonal Low has shown good signs of forming, core pressure at 1000 mb...

The seasonal low in the Thar region is now very weak.The pressure around the Thar desert region is now 1000 mb (994mb required by June beginning). Proper central core is forming now. And ,as per the required scheduled development, a proper gradient should be in the making.


.

Days temperatures have "performed miserably" in the MW-1/MW-2 inter period ! Below normal day temperatures by as much as 13c had been recorded, and the highest on date in the Sindh areas is 48c. In India , it has reached 45c in Rajasthan.

Again, snow and rains in the Northern hills. 


As a result, and expectedly, the day temperatures fell, and the seasonal low was almost wiped out. Heating trend started in late April though.


See the trend in April for Delhi, Bikaner and Jacobabad.





An exception this year is the Vidharbha region. Even without the normally exceptionally heavy rains, the temperatures in Rajasthan and Vidharbha are just about managing 42/44c (till end April), and in some cities just hovering around the low 40s. 
Highest yet was 45.5c in Jaisalmer on 27th April. Normally Vidarbha is a hotbed ! 45-47c is a "kid's playground" for the region.
Nagpur trend in April.


The minimum temperatures this year, have touched 33c in Sibbi on 26th, 31c in Rohri Pakistan on 30th. 
In India, a minimum of 30c or above is yet to be achieved.

In 2011, the minimum temperatures in the region  were higher comparatively at this time. Minimum temperature touched 30c for the first time in 2011 on 29th April at Kota (Rajasthan). 

In 2010, 30c as minimum was recorded on 17th April.

The maximum and minimum temperatures have to rise now in Sindh, Balochistan and North India. Trends of rising temperatures may be seen again  in Vidharbh, Gujarat and adjoining regions of Sindh.


True, the entire sub-continent region has to suffer a heat wave, but the gains are much more.  


The line of wind dis-continuity, currently is located, as a weak trough, in the centre of Southern Peninsula, South of  15N towards the tip of India. This LWD should strengthen, in the centre of the Southern Peninsula region. 

Out breaks of pre- monsoon thunder showers are expected normally in the southern states and South Maharashtra.  Though the showers in the South are heavy. We need the thundershowers to commence and precipitate in Maharashtra and Interior Karnataka, indicating a proper flow of moisture into the peninsula region. 

A LWD in the central peninsula region "looks after" the moisture content in the interior areas, and prepares the atmosphere with the humidity required fro a proper and good rainfall in the Lee ward regions.


Indicator: -ve.


3. Bay Low:


Continuing from MW-2, "Bay of Bengal" low pressure parameter is a worrying factor. Normally, the Bay should host a pre-Monsoon low any time after 15th.April. 


Like I mentioned in the previous MW, in 2011 we had a cyclone in the Bay by the third week, and in 2009 a cyclone crossed the Bay on 12th April.2012 hosted a low around 25th April (BB-1).

As on today, this region still maintains a luke warm response to the formation of a quick low. The pressure is anything but low, and the winds indicate a weak "high" trying to stabilise itself. 


What is needed now is a pulse from the Far East, to start with, and break up the existing high pressure area. Currently no Storm or Low pressure in the Philippines Seas.


MJO has entered a weak phase in our seas. The MJO turns negative in the Southern Bay areas after 29th April. MJO wave gets slightly positive in Bay around 18th May...seems suitable for the Monsoon there ! MJO may turn Neutral after 8th May in the Arabian Sea sector.

The shading indicates outgoing longwave radiation (OLR; W/m²).


Only +ve sign of a quick formation is that the SST is conducive. Map shows around 30c in the Bay and 31c near the Andaman Islands. Getting favourable temperature for  low formation.


Indicator: -ve

4. Cross Equatorial Winds : Indicator: neutral.


The Southern  high pressure region, the Power House of our Summer Monsoon, is constant down in the Southern Hemisphere, stretching off the Madagascar Island to the  mid South Indian ocean. 

The Mascrene Highs have maintained their strength, and i would say gained to some extent... at 1028mb. 


The cross equatorial wind flow, has just about picked up in the Western sector Southern Hemisphere. Winds, have not yet achieved the required speeds, but just  hitting the East African coast. To get a defined Somali Current, we need a proper re-curving Northwards/North-East of the winds, on the Kenyan coast. (Map)

However, The region below the equator in the Bay sector is almost in the same situation as MW-2.  In the Bay Branch, the Cross equatorial winds are perfectly diverted and changed direction towards SW after just crossing the Equator (Blue Arrows). But, in the Bay, the winds turn Southerly, and are dis organised along the East Coast of India.The winds hitting Sumatra coast (Green Arrow) are not Westerly (as  required), and also needs to gather strength soon.



Remember, the normal date for SWM to hit the South Andaman Sea is 15th. May.(Map)

In fact, a severe Cyclone Cat 4 " Quang" is "hanging around" the seas off the West coast of Australia...and expected to track SE towards Western Australia.

If no further systems form, we see ITCZ moving North, the High in the Southern Indian Ocean has a fair chance of getting stronger and anchoring well.


Indicator: Neutral.


5. The 200 Jet Streams too, show some awkward anomaly, in the last week.  Seems to be getting rectified only after 4th May. 

The 200 hpa Jet Streams:  core was located between Lat.26°N & Lat. 30°N with the wind speed varying between 81 kts & 109 kts around 200 hPa. The highest wind speed of 109 kts was recorded over Patiala on 20th April at 187 hPa

Conclusion: Indicators:  1) ENSO -ve  as El Nino chances possible in Latter Months of Monsoon.    2) Seasonal Low -ve     3)  Bay Low -ve  4)  Cross equatorial Winds Neutral. 5) UTH trough favourably forming around the Equator in the 80E -100E area.




Arrival of South West Monsoon:
I would put a slight delay in the South West Monsoon arrival dates for Andaman and Kerala as of now. 
But would like to wait for another 4 days to see any changes in parameters, so will put up MW-3 Part 2 on 4th May with proper dates of SWM arrival.

Then, we go into analysing the quantum of rainfall expected, in the subsequent MW-5 (which as usual will be in 2 parts), and will be ready for publication in May.


These views are of the Author. May not be used for Commercial purposes.

                                            End of Article...


Astronomers..Do not miss ..Watch an Enormous “Plasma Snake” Erupt from the Sun...See video in the end.....Space News Page

Monday, April 27, 2015

Monsoon Watch - 3 will be published on Thursday 30th Night (11.30 pm IST)

Heat wave! South Florida sizzles, breaks temperature records (All Temperatures mentioned in Fahrenheit)
BY CARLI TEPROFFCTEPROFF@MIAMIHERALD.COM

Sunday’s 26th,  temperature climbed to 96 degrees at Miami International Airport, breaking the daily record of 93 set in 1988 and tying the record for the entire month of April, which was logged in 1971.
Miami was not alone in breaking heat records.

The temperature at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport was 96 degrees Sunday afternoon, breaking the record of 94 set in 1988.

In Boca Raton and at Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, the temperature hit 99 degrees.

The extreme heat — which feels even hotter because of the humidity — is rather unusual for April, Gregoria said. The average temperature is around 84 degrees.


“We are a good 10 degrees warmer than usual,” he said.



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Rains never seems to stop in Karnataka, ending 8.30 am on 30.04.2015

The trough upto 0.9 km a.s.l. from Marathwada to south Tamil Nadu now extends from southeast Madhya Pradesh to Kerala across interior Andhra Pradesh.

in mm (min 20 mm)


Horakeredevarpur H.D - 72
Sangameshwarpet - 67
Vanakanahalli - 57
Balla - 54
Hallare - 48
Kyasamballi - 47
Chinnikatte - 46
Periyapatna - 43
Thopanahalli - 42
Markanja - 41
Maranahalli - 41
Talya - 39
Subramanya - 39
Garvale - 38
Kowdle - 35
Chinchodi - 35
B Katihalli - 35
Kodihally - 33
Nagnur Byaraj - 31
Belagodu - 30
Kanivedasarahalli - 30
Kuruburu - 29
Kanakapura - 27
Doddamole - 27
Arishinakunte - 25
Hethur - 25
Somwarpet - 24
Maddur - 23
Anekal - 23
Suttakoti - 23
Krishnarajpet - 23
Ravandur - 22
Gendehalli - 22
Halekote - 22
Lakkur - 21
Haradanahally - 20
Hosanagar - 20
Pulgurkote - 20
Periyapatna - 20
Holalur - 20

Bordoichila pounds Meghalaya, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 29.04.2015

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Assam & Meghalaya and neighbourhood, now lies over East Assam and neighbourhood and extends upto 0.9 km as

in mm (min 10 mm)


Williamnagar - 101
Rongara - 71
Jowai - 69
Williamnagar (A) - 67
Cherrapunji - 49
Nongostin - 41
Mawkyrwat - 41
Shillong - 22
Barapani - 10
Nongpoh - 10

Odisha gets widespread Rains, ending 8.30 am on 29.04.2015

A cyclonic circulation between 1.5 & 2.1 kms a.s.l. lies over east Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood. A thunder squall accompanied with gusty surface wind speed reaching 40 kmph passed over Bhubaneswar airport on 28.04.2015 at 18.35 hrs IST and lasted for 3 minutes. Due to long list, the cut-off is kept at 30 mm.

in mm (min 30 mm)


Chhatrapur - 65
Kankadahad - 62
Betanati - 60 
Gopalpur - 58
Tangi - 57
Belaguntha - 42
Jenapur - 41
Rairakhol - 40
Bhuban - 40
Jujumura - 39
Korei - 38
Puri - 37
Brahmagiri - 37
Chandikhol - 36
Karanjia - 36
Chandbali - 36
Tigiria - 35
Dhenkanal - 33
Mahisapat - 33
Soro - 32
Pipili - 32
Marshaghai - 31
Alpingal - 31
Cuttak - 30
Paradip - 30
Bhuweneshwar - 30
Daringbadi - 30


Coffee showers in Karnataka, ending 8.30 am on 29.04.2015

A  trough upto 0.9 km a.s.l. extends from Marathwada to south Tamil Nadu across interior Karnataka.  'Cherry Blossom’ or ‘Coffee showers’ are local wind that blows over the interior Karnataka during the pre-monsoon season and is extremely helpful for coffee cultivation. The Hills in the interior Karnataka gets most of these rains

in mm (min 15 mm)

Subramanya - 72
Tegur - 61
Gangasandra - 52
Kuruvalli - 50
Ramapura - 38
Tigadi - 35
Hirebagevadi - 31
Chinnamulagund - 31
Baggavalli - 31
Sarangi - 29
Gauribidanur - 28
Shishila - 26
Doddabygathavalli - 25
Ballamavati - 25
Sondekoppa - 24
Beladhara - 24
Uchagaon - 24
Ubrani - 23
Kalmane - 21
Hanagal - 20
Paspul - 20
Nallur - 20
Kavadimatti - 20
Halaganahalli - 19
Mangalavada - 17
Vishwanathanahalli - 16
Gurumitakal - 16
Ajjampura - 16
Maranahalli - 16
Tyagadabaji - 15
Malur - 15
Shiggaon - 15
Lakkavalli - 15
Belgavi - 15
Kulageri Cross - 15
Balehonnur - 15
Thumbadi - 15
Shahabad - 15
Tanigebylu - 15
Attigundi - 15
Khanapura - 15

Coimbatore continues to get rains, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 28.04.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood persists.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Valparai PTO, Coimbatore - 51
Kuruvikulam, Tirunelveli - 50
Mullaikaraipatti, Tirunelveli - 44
Lower Nirar, Coimbatore - 40
Narikudi, Virdhunagar - 34
Tondi, Ramanathapuram - 32
Valparai Taluk Office, Coimbatore - 31
Pechiparai, Kanyakumari - 29
Chinnakalar, Coimbatore - 28
Perambalur, Perambalur - 28
Panchapatti, Karur - 27
Satankulam, Toothukudi - 25
Rajapalayam, Virudhunagar - 24
Karaikudi, Sivaganga - 23
Manalmedu, Thanjavur - 23
Sholayar Dam, Coimbatore - 20
Tirupathur, Sivaganga - 20
K.M.Koil, Cuddalore - 20
Padalur, Perambalur - 20
Valparai PAP, Coimbatore - 20
Upper Kodayar, Kanyakumari - 19
Tozhudur, Cuddalore - 17
Periyar, Theni - 17
Nallar, Coimbatore - 17
Thiruthuraipoondi, Tiruvarur - 17
Musiri, Trichy - 17
Kundadam, Tiruppur - 17
Nilakottai, Dindigul - 16
Tiruvadanai, Ramanathapuram - 15
Kalugumalai, Toothukudi - 15
Thuvakudi, Trichy - 15
Thirumarugal, Nagapattinam - 14
Melaneelithanallur, Tirunelveli - 14
Marungapuri, Trichy - 14
Sivaganga, Sivaganga - 14
Papanasam, Tirunelveli - 14
Thottiyam, Trichy - 14
Aruppukottai, Virudhunagar - 13
Kolli hills, Namakkal - 12
Manimutharu, Tirunelveli - 12
Mannargudi, Tiruvarur - 12
Kovilpatti, Toothukudi - 12
Orthanad, Thanjavur - 11
Paramathivelur, Namakkal - 10
Sirkali, Nagapattinam - 10
Tirupuvanam, Sivaganga - 10
Srimushnam, Cuddalore - 10
Nanguneri, Tirunelveli - 10
Thunnakkadavu, Coimbatore - 10
Mangalur, Cuddalore - 10
Vettaikadu, Tiruvarur - 10

Non stop rains in Odisha continues, ending 8.30 am on 28.04.2015

The trough between 3.1 & 5.8 kms a.s.l. from Assam to north coastal Andhra Pradesh now extends from Assam to northwest Bay of Bengal.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Dhamnagar - 81
Bari - 48
Remuna - 40 
Akhuapada - 32
Marsaghai - 25
Kendrapara - 30 
Derabis - 30
Nh5 Gobindpur - 30 
Pattamundai - 24 
Gania - 20
Jamsolaghat - 20
Harichandanpur - 15
Binjharpur - 15
Dhenkanal  - 15
Mahisapat - 15
Nilgiri - 14
Thakurmunda - 14
Chandikhol - 13
Tihidi - 13
Bhadrak - 12
Jajpur - 11
Basudevpur - 11
Nayagarh - 10
Ghatagaon - 10 
Ranpur - 10
Chandbali - 10
Tilhar - 10
Samakhunta - 10
Champua - 10

Kerala continues to get Rain, ending 8.30 am on 28.04.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km asl over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood persists. A trough extending upto 0.9 km asl from the above cyclonic circulation to coastal Karnataka.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Kurudamannil - 86
Perumbavur - 46
Thenmala - 40
Varkala - 37
Kanjirappally - 34
Peermade - 31
Quilandy - 22
Chengannur - 22
Haripad - 20
Lower Sholayar - 20
Kayamkulam - 19
Thrithala - 16
Neeleswaram - 15
Ottappalam - 14
Nedumangad - 13
Neyyattinkara - 12
Mavattapuzah - 11
Munnar - 10
Pattambi - 10
Kollam - 10
Kottayam - 10

Coimbatore district gets very heavy rains, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 27.04.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. lies over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood. Sothupparai dam in Theni has become full and overflowing even before the monsoon starts after 40 years.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Pollachi, Coimbatore - 124
Parsons Valley, Nilgiris - 68
Karuppandhi Dam, Tirunelveli - 68
Bodinaickanur, Theni - 65
Sivagiri, Tirunelveli - 55
Manacadavu, Coimbatore - 54
Thunnakkadavu, Coimbatore - 46
Sendamangalam, Namakkal - 45
Thondamuthur, Coimbatore - 44
Valparai PTO, Coimbatore - 42
Sarcarsamakulam, Coimbatore - 38
Uthagamandalam, Nilgiris - 37
Neyveli, Cuddalore - 34
Thirukoilur, Villupuram - 32
Karambakkudi, Pudukottai - 31
Vettaikaranpudur, Coimbatore - 29
Sankarankoil, Tirunelveli - 27
Manalmedu, Thanjavur - 27
Namakkal, Namakkal - 25
Budalur, Thanjavur - 24
Sholavandan, Madurai - 24
Padalur, Perambalur - 23
Amaravathi, Coimbatore - 22
Manomboly, Coimbatore - 22
Porthimund, Nilgiris - 22
Shencottah, Tirunelveli - 22
Thirumarugal, Nagapattinam - 21
Valparai, Taluk Office Coimbatore - 21
Sivakasi, Virudhunagar - 19
Chellampatti, Madurai - 19
Periyakulam, Theni - 18
Thenkasi, Tirunelveli - 18
Rajapalayam, Virudhunagar - 18
Valparai PAP, Coimbatore - 18
Thiruverambur, Trichy - 17
Vembakottai, Virudhunagar - 16
Pechiparai, Kanyakumari - 15
Periyanaickenpalayam, Coimbatore - 15
Nannilam, Tiruvarur - 15
Sakarapathi, Coimbatore - 14
Nallar Coimbatore - 14
Salem, Salem - 14
Mannargudi, Tiruvarur - 14
Peraiyur, Madurai - 14
Ramnad NICRA, Ramanathapuram - 13
Anamalai, Coimbatore - 11
Tiruvadanai, Ramanathapuram - 11
Vettikadu, Tiruvarur - 11
K.M.Koil, Cuddalore - 10
Panamarathupatti, Salem - 10
Kadaiyampatty, Salem - 10
Perungalur, Pudukkottai - 10
Tiruvaiyaru, Thanjavur - 10
Tiruchendur, Toothukudi - 10
Marina Beach, Chennai - 10
Puduchatram, Namakkal - 10
Uthagamandalam, PTO Nilgiris - 10
Kadaladi, Ramanathapuram - 10
Paramakudi, Ramanathapuram - 10
Kayathar, Toothukudi - 10
Upper Aliyar, Coimbatore - 10
Sholayar Dam, Coimbatore - 10
Narikudi, Virdhunagar - 10 



Non-stop Rain in Karnataka continues, ending 8.30 am on 27.04.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. lies over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood.

in mm (min 20 mm)

Kunijala - 85
Kalenahalli - 67
Keralapura - 67
Ganjigere - 60
Balehonnur - 53
Murnad - 42
Arkalgud - 40
Megaramakki - 35
Badadal - 33
Revoor - 33
Virajapet - 31
Maruthipura - 31
Yelkundele - 30
Madapura - 30
Shivapura - 29
Salagame - 29
Nakapolu - 28
Somwarpet - 28
Nettanige - 27
Mudnuru - 27
Mandekolu - 27
Kushalnagar - 26
Haradanahalli - 25
Seelunare - 25
Duddamagge - 23
Kuruburu - 22
Balachavadi - 21
Bhagamandala - 21
Doddabommatti - 21
Gorur - 20
Kottur - 20
Galibeedu - 20
Shadaguppi - 20
Bettadapura - 20
Hebbalagere - 20
Hodigere - 20
Yelandur - 20
Bylanarasapura - 20

Mango Showers continue in Kerala, ending 8.30 am on 27.04.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. lies over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood.

in mm (min 15 mm)

Mattanur - 86
Manjeri - 71
Vellanikkara - 59
Kayamkulam Agri - 43
Neyyattinkara - 43
Kayamkulam - 40
Mavattapuzha - 35
Vadakkancherry - 33
Hosdurg - 32
Aryankavu - 26
Perumbavur - 25
Konni - 25
Lower Sholayar - 24
Kollengode - 23
Poringal - 21
Meenangadi - 21
Ottappalam - 20
Chalakudy - 20
Kannur - 19
Kanjirapuzha - 18
Kochi CIAL - 18
Mannarkad - 18
Taliparamba - 17
Karipur AP - 16
Kodungallur - 15
Nedumangad - 15
Chengannur - 15
Chimoni - 15
Meenkara - 15
Vilangankunnu - 15
Haripad - 15
Ambalavayal - 15
Vynthala - 15

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Rare Occurrence in Rawalpindi today, Monday....the day's high was 19c, while the overnight low was 20c...How ?
The Low was 20c till the cut off time. After that rains started and the temperatures dropped below 20c. By then the cut off time must have lapsed, and the mercury never crossed 19c in the day...in fact it dropped to 15c at Islamabad in the day....

Saturday, April 25, 2015

Major 5.3 magnitude Tremor in Nepal (Centre 26 kms ENE of Nagarkot) at 9.56 pm IST Sunday

Thunder Storm lashes Kathmandu airport Sunday night...Currently at 10.30 pm IST temp at 14c. As a WD moves East from Northern India, more rain and showers expected around Kathmandu on Monday and Tuesday.
Next WD moves into Northern Sub Continent on 30th. 
A strong WD expected in North Sub Continent on 6th May

25 Major After Shocks in the Last 11 hrs (till 10.30 pm IST Saturday) > 4 magnitude




Nepal and North India/East India Quake on 25th April:

USGS UPGRADES THE QUAKE TO 7.9!!

Vagarians from Delhi, Kolkata, Patna, and Varanasi report of heavy jolts and tremors.

ToI pic from Nepal below


Weather Report sent by Vagarian Santosh from Kolkata is "self explanatory"..."Guess what is the feeling right now !!
Earthquake , then after shock , than Gloomy skies ,
and Storm begins , Rains lashing , Vertical lightning ....!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Its all happening over in kolkata ... ok
but dont panic , everyone , its not the end of the world ....
We all are safe .. "


Thunder Showers in Kolkata now with East Winds at 26 kmph ( 12.30 pm IST)

Kathmandu is cloudy at 20c, but rain expected later on Saturday.
Many regions affected by quake can get showers on Saturday evening. Light snowfall likely in higher reaches.

Thunder Squalls likely in Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal on Saturday. Heavy rains also likely.


Tirunelveli continues to get rains, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 26.04.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. over Comorin area and neighbourhood  now lies over Comorin and adjoining Lakshadweep areas. The trough extending upto 1.5 kms asl. runs upto interior Tamil Nadu across Chhattisgarh and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

in mm (min 5 mm)

Lower Papanasam, Tirunelveli - 56
Servalar, Tirunelveli - 53
Manimutharu, Tirunelveli -  46
Papanasam, Tirunelveli  - 45
Sethubavachatram, Thanjavur - 36
Nanguneri, Tirunelveli  - 26
Upper Bhavani, Nilgiris - 25
Eravangalar, Theni - 15
Pykara, Nilgiris - 14
Mukurthy, Nilgiris - 14
Singara, Nilgiris - 14
Ambasamudram, Tirunelveli  - 12
Periyar, Theni - 10
Ambur, Vellore - 10
Kadanadhi, Tirunelveli - 10
Manalar, Theni - 10
Kalakkadu, Tirunelveli - 9
Nambiyaru, Tirunelveli - 8
Avalanche, Nilgiris - 7
Palacode, Dharamapuri - 7
Chennai  Marina Beach - 5
Budalur, Thanjavur - 5
Nedungal, Krishnagiri - 5
Virinjipuram, Vellore - 5
K.V.Kuppam, Vellore - 5
Thunnakkadavu, Coimbatore - 5
Tiruvalangadu, Tiruvallur - 5
Kodimudiyaru, Tirunelveli - 5
Ramanadhi, Tirunelveli - 5

Odisha continues to get battered for 5th straight day, Odisha Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 26.04.2015

A north-south trough between 3.1 & 5.8 kms asl runs from east Bihar to west-central Bay of Bengal. The trough extending upto 1.5 kms asl. runs to interior Tamil Nadu across Chhattisgarh and coastal Andhra Pradesh. As IMD orissa did not update their dailreport, compiling was not possible.

A Squall passed over Bhubaneswar on 25.04.2015 at 22:45 hrs IST from easterly direction with maximum wind speed 52 Kmph and lasted for 3 min.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Nimpara - 93
Puri - 74
Marsaghai - 59 
Bhubaneswar Aero - 51
Mahisapat - 47
Dhenkanal - 47
Rajibhavan - 39
Phulbani - 35 
Balasore - 34
Tigiria - 34
Birmaharajpur - 30
Athgarh - 30
Junagarh - 28
Chendipada - 28
Chandbali - 26
Belgaon - 24 
Tihidi - 21
Athmalik - 20
Dunguripalli - 19
Sambalpur - 15
Jagatsinghpur - 15
Joshipur - 15
Gania - 15
Baripada - 15
Gaisilet - 14
Alpingal - 14
Tarva - 13
Ullunda - 12
Balpatna - 12
Daspalla - 11
Angul - 11
Titlagarh - 10
Gopalpur - 10
Kujanga - 10
Bolangir - 10
Burla - 10
Daringibadi - 10
Binika - 10

Widespread rains continue in Karnataka, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 26.04.2015

The trough extending upto 1.5 kms asl. runs upto interior Tamil Nadu across Chhattisgarh and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

in mm (min 20 mm)

Vengasandra - 84
Anajigere - 69
Ramasagar - 64
Joldal - 63
Shantigrama - 60
Domlur - 59
Vatalu - 57
Gorur - 54
Gopanhalli - 52
Belagola - 52
Nidige - 52
Tirumakudalu Narasipura - 51
Umblebylu - 50
Salagame - 49
Muthuru - 38
Chikkabennuru - 38
Mysore - 37
Haladi - 37
Bangalore City - 36
Uttarahalli - 36
Attigundi - 36
Thayalur - 34
Gonitumkur - 34
Bangalore AP - 34
Holenarasipur - 33
Mirle - 30
Tekal - 30
Vastare - 30
Halli Mysore - 30
Avani - 29
Bilur - 28
Hanur - 28
Malandur - 26
Sakarayapatna - 25
Suvarnavathi - 25
Halsahalli - 24
Channapatna - 23
Ayanur - 22
Narsimharajapura - 21
Jayapura (M) - 20
Madapura - 20
Siddapura(K) - 20
K.Shettihalli - 20
Aldur - 20
Taraka - 20
Biligere - 20
Gundlupet - 20
Ajjampura - 20
Lakkavalli - 20
Arkalgud - 20
Hassan - 20

Chennai Surroundings get heavy rains, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 25.04.2015

The trough extending upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. runs to Rayalaseema across north Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Telangana. The trough of low at mean sea level over equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining south Andaman Sea now lies over south  Andaman  Sea  and  adjoining  southeast  Bay  of  Bengal. Singaperumal kovil reported hailstorms. The list is so long, hence the cut-off is kept at 45 mm.

in mm (min 45 mm)

Sothupparai, Theni - 124
Lalapet, Cuddalore - 120
Manachanallur, Trichy - 105
Mahabalipuram, Kancheepuram - 104
Vallam, Thanjavur - 102
Edappadi, Salem - 97
K.M.Koil, Cuddalore - 88
Needamangalam, Tiruvarur - 86
Tindivanam Nicra, Villupuram - 84
Marakkanam, Villupuram - 81
Udumalpet, Tiruppur - 78
Mannargudi, Tiruvarur - 78
Papanasam, Thanjavur - 76
Kodavasal, Tiruvarur - 75
Erumaipatti, Namakkal - 75
Veerapandi, Theni - 74
Kammapuram, Cuddalore - 74
Glenmorgan, Nilgiris - 70
Chittar II, Kanyakumari - 70
Kallakurichi, Villupuram - 69
Valangaiman, Tiruvarur - 68
Tindivanam, Villupuram - 67
Vaiyampatty, Trichy - 67
Kumbakonam, Thanjavur - 65
Trichy Town, Trichy - 65
Anthiyur, Erode - 65
Kadaiyampatty, Salem - 65
Acharapakkam, Kancheepuram - 64
Pondicherry, Puducherry - 64
Mangalur, Cuddlore - 63
Mettur, Salem - 63
Thiruthuraipoondi, Tiruvarur - 63
Tiruvannamalai, Tiruvannamalai - 63
Virudachalam, Cuddalore - 63
Neggam, Coimbatore - 62
Valangaiman, Tiruvarur - 62
Thiruvalangadu, Tiruvallur - 61
Thanjavur, Thanjavur - 60
Servalar, Tirunelveli - 59
Lathur, Kancheepuram - 59
Tiruvarur, Tiruvarur - 58
Arani, Tiruvannamalai - 57
Omalur, Salem - 56
Pandavaiyar Head, Tiruvarur - 56
Sankaridurg, Salem - 55
Periyakulam, Theni - 55
Kelambakkam, Kancheepuram - 55
Muthupet, Tiruvarur - 54
Anaipalayam, Karur - 54
Mecheri, Salem - 54
Manalmedu, Nagapattinam - 54
Vettaikadu, Thiruvarur - 54
Kadambathur, Tiruvallaur - 53
Ulundurpet, Villupuram - 53
Nannilam, Tiruvarur - 50
Arantangi, Pudukkottai - 50
Sankarapuram, Villupuram - 50
Anaikarai, Thanjavur - 50
Lower Anaicut, Thanjavur - 49
Chidambaram, Cuddalore - 49
Pattukottai, Thanjavur - 49
Trichy Junction, Trichy - 48
Pollachi, Coimbatore - 48
Thandrampet, Tiruvannamalai - 47
Sendamangalam, Namakkal - 47
Paluvidudhi, Karur - 47
Mettupatti, Madurai - 46
Poondi, Tiruvallur - 45
Cheyyur, Kancheepuram - 45
Gudalur Bazzar, Nilgiris - 45
Panchapatti, Karur - 45
Gudimangalam, Tiruppur - 45
Gingee, Villupuram - 45
Vilupuram, Villupuram - 45
Marudhanadhi, Theni - 45

No Stopping of rains in Karnataka, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 25.04.2015

The trough extending upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. runs to Rayalaseema across north Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Telangana.

in mm (min 20 mm)

Hirisave - 81
Ganjigere - 69
Chikkayalur - 61
Mayasandra - 58
Nandipura - 55
Gundal - 54
Karmadu - 53
Suguru - 51
Dabbegatta - 50
Lalandevanahalli - 50
Huliyur - 48
Marthahally  - 45
Lokkanahalli - 45
Bannerughatta - 43
Bidaluru - 41
Joldal - 38
Bailur - 38
Heggere - 38
Chilukunda - 37
Bangalore - 36
Mandagadde - 34
Malemahadeshwara Hills - 33
Begur - 32
Hallur - 31
Krishnarajapet - 31
Kanivedasarahalli - 30
Kollegal - 28
Yelandur - 28
K.Belagallu - 27
Boranakanive - 27
Krishnarajanagar - 27
Balehonnur - 26
Hebbal - 25
Dandinasivar - 25
Kadugodi - 25
Bindiganavole - 23
Hoskote - 22
Sirvar - 22
Halekote - 21
Balanja - 21
Alaluru - 20
Doddabommatti - 20
Galibeedu - 20
Mysore - 20
Ravandur - 20
Doddalahally - 20
Koganur - 20
Shimoga - 20

Andhra continues to get the battering, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 25.04.2015

The trough extending upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. runs to Rayalaseema across north Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Telangana.

in mm (min 30 mm)

Narsipatnam - 111
Sankhavaram - 83
Prathipadu - 70
Velanka  - 68
Uttarakanchi - 65
Satyavedu - 60
Kathipudi - 60
Jammalamadugu - 58
Kakarapadu - 57
Rajam - 56
Rayabhupalapatnam  - 53
Parvathipuram - 52
Golugonda - 51
Vakapadu - 47
S.Rayavaram - 45
Sanapa - 43
Kotananduru - 43
D.Polavaram - 42
Routhulapudi - 42
Nagalapalle - 42
Vempadu - 38
Karani - 38
Krishnapuram - 36
Chodavaram - 35
Chintapalle - 35
Gangavaram - 33
Therlam - 33
Gaadhirai - 32
Irugulam - 32
Munagapaka - 31
Pachipenta - 31
Makkuva - 30
Chanti Bridge - 30
Suratpalle - 30
Cheedikada - 30
Madugula - 30
Sabbavaram - 30
Tuni - 30
Bobbili - 30

Palani & Salem gets hailstorms, Thirunallar gets yellow rain, Tamil Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 24.04.2015

The trough extending upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. now runs from to Comorin area across interior Odisha, south Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Rayalaseema. The trough from Telangana to extreme south Peninsular India has merged with the above trough. Palani got hailstorms after 40 years. Officials are inspecting the stranage yellow rains in Thirunallur in Karaikkal.

in mm  (min 10 mm)

Palani, Dindigul - 70
Perundurai, Erode - 64
Salem, Salem - 58
Dharmapuri Pto, Dharmapuri - 38
Hogenekal, Dharmapuri - 35
Jawadhu Hills, Thiruvannmalai - 32
K.V.Kuppam, Vellore - 29
Coimbatore South, Coimbatore - 27
Anamalai, Coimbatore - 25
Virinjipuram, Vellore - 25
Avinasi, Tiruppur - 23
Jolarpet, Vellore - 23
Natrampalli, Vellore - 22
Sathyamangalam, Erode - 22
Denkanikottai,  Krishnagiri - 22
Kumarapalayam,  Namakkal - 21
Harur,  Dharmapuri - 19
Thoppampatti, Dindugul - 19
Thammampatty, Salem - 18
Pennagaram, Dharmapuri - 18
Anaicut, Vellore - 18
Mecheri, Salem - 18
Karamadai, Coimbatore - 16
Peraiyur, Madurai - 16
Bhavani, Erode - 15
Yercaud, Salem - 13
Omalur, Salem - 13
Coimbatore AP, Coimbatore - 12
Mettupalayam, Coimbatore - 12
Madukkarai, Coimbatore - 12
Coimbatore, Coimbatore - 12
Thunnakkadavu, Coimbatore - 12
Chennimalai, Erode - 11
Sulur, Coimbatore - 10
Periyanaickenpalayam, Coimbatore - 10
Gobichettipalayam, Erode - 10
Dharapuram, Tiruppur - 10
Rasipuram, Namakkal - 10
Sandyanallah, Coimbatore - 10
Sarcarsamakulam, Coimbatore - 10

Andhra gets battered, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 24.04.2015

The trough extending upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. now runs from to Comorin area across interior Odisha, south Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Rayalaseema. The trough from Telangana to extreme south Peninsular India has merged with the above trough.

in mm  (min 30 mm)

Anantapuram - 102
Nakkapalli - 83
Nandana Marela - 79
Madakasira - 76
Gummagatta - 71
Umareddipalle  - 59
Battuvanipalli - 58
Udayagudam - 58
Gummanampadu - 56
Jagadurthi - 48
Rudrasamudram - 47
Gooty - 46
Seetharampuram - 43
B Nidamanur  - 43
Komarada - 42
Hakumpeta - 41
Rayadurg - 41
Nandavaram - 41
Raptadu - 41
Thikkavari Palem - 40
Rudravaram - 37
Pedamanturu - 37
Velugodu - 36
Ellutla - 36
Mundlamuru - 36
Kambadur - 36
Pedairlapadu - 36
Cheemalapadu - 35
Pattikanda - 35
Kalyandrug - 34
Cherukur - 34
Narpala - 34
Gummagatta - 34
Munagapaka - 33
Racherla - 32
Govindapuram - 31
Kolukula - 30
Medimakulapalle - 30
Rambilli - 30
Pedagarlapadu - 30
Podili - 30
Devanakonda - 30

Hail Storms in Bangalore and daily rains continue in Karnataka, ending 8.30 am on 24.04.2015

The trough extending upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. now runs from to Comorin area across interior Odisha, south Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Rayalaseema. The trough from Telangana to extreme south Peninsular India has merged with the above trough. Varthur in Banglore tops with over 100 mm rainfall. For 2nd day Banglaore region has topped karnataka rainfall.


in mm  (min 40 mm)

Varthur - 135
Balganur - 95
Udbala - 95
Kalarhatt - 95
Tavaragera - 98
Siddapura - 93
Renukapura - 88
Mutuguppe - 87
Balagannur - 85
Karekallu - 77
Perabe - 76
Hosaritti - 72
Vishweshwarapuram - 72
Kuppagadde - 69
Hemdore - 68
Hura - 68
Mutsandra - 67
Hulikal (H) - 67
Jalihal - 65
Halaguru - 65
Oddarahatti - 64
Raichur PTO - 62
Hosaritti - 61
Santibastwad - 61
Moka - 61
Harisandra - 57
Karatgi - 57
Kokkada - 57
Hallikere - 55
Gorebal - 54
Attangi - 54
Hulekal - 53
Halagur - 53
Bangalore City - 53
Kodihally - 52
Harve - 52
Halkatta - 52
Gangavathi - 51
Bangalore AP - 49
Begur - 48
Mulikar - 48
Bailur - 48
Konakal - 48
Kurugodu - 45
Kunnatgi - 45
Belur - 44
Turuvekere - 43
Ramanagara - 43
Manchanbele - 43
Bandal - 42
Bettadapura - 42
Mulky - 42
Kukkala - 41
Thirthahalli - 41
Somanahalli - 40
Anavatti - 40
Somwarpet - 40
Doddalahally- 40
Venoor - 40
Arasalu - 40
Sugur  - 40
Turvihal - 40
Bargur - 40
Rayanal - 40
Manchikere - 40
Munganahalli - 40
Hebri - 40

Karnataka continues to get Mango Showers, ending 8.30 am on 23.04.2015

A trough extending upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. runs from Telangana to  extreme  south Peninsular India  across Rayalaseema and south interior Karnataka. Bangalore outskirts got battered.

in mm(min 20 mm)

Rajanukunte - 111
Melur - 86
Haranhalli - 63
Surathkal - 62
B.Kanabur - 61
Puradalu - 57
Haleyangady - 51
Lokkanahalli - 51
Shimoga - 45
Hadripura - 45
Halebeedu - 43
Lokkanahalli - 42
Kadagattur - 42
Baguru - 42
Nichhavvanahalli - 40
Budapanhalli - 40
Pavagada - 40
Sutagatti - 40
Balehonnur - 40
Hebsur - 39
Hesaraghatta - 39
Sundal - 38
Kundana - 38
Holuru - 35
Mangalore - 33
Deshanur - 31
Chigateri - 30
Baguru - 33
Doddabelavangala - 30
Kanivedasarahalli - 30
Joldal - 28
Balangannur - 28
Kallanhangarga - 27
Ramgiri - 26
Aurad  - 25
Arasanagi - 25
Kudur - 24
Kuduru - 22
Ballupet - 22
Hulukunte - 22
Ranibennur - 21
Arasikere - 21
Hanumanamatti - 20
Amingad - 20
Shimoga PTO - 20
Hemmaragala - 20
Nagur - 20

Friday, April 24, 2015

A Lot of Debating is going on due to the variations in the IMD forecast of 93% (+- 5%) of the SWM and around 102% forecasted by a Private Weather Agency. Now, that is a substantial variation in estimates.
The IMD viewpoint is taking into consideration the impending El Nino, which may lower the intensity of the Monsoon. They have not considered the IOD (rightly i feel).
But, an above average Monsoon this year given by the Private Agency contradicts the IMD estimate even in spatial distributions. 

Vagaries will, as usual, give the arrival dates by end of April in MW-3. 
Vagaries, while considering the quantum rainfall for the Monsoon, considers parameters pertaining to April readings also. Some parameters are taken from the April observations. So, it would be incorrect to give a forecast for the Monsoon quantum of rains before April. We even consider and decipher the end April and early May rainfall patterns for Southern India/Kerala.

According to the usual practice, Vagaries will announce the rainfall quantum ( for the entire sub continent) in MW-4 and MW-5 around 10th/12th May.



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Stunning Pictures of 2 Recent Volcanin Eruptions and Volcanic Lightening.See Space News Page....

Lightening Occurs in Volcanic Plumes and Gas.. But why? Vagarians, Please give your Answers to this query >>>>

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Monsoon Watch - 2...2015

Further Analysis of the parameters as discussed in MW-1. 

1. Seasonal Low: As the average day/night temperatures in the Northern/Central Sub-Continent areas show a distinct heating up, the -ve factor from the previous MW (last 
week) discussion shows some improvement. Heat waves are seen in the Central and Western regions now.

Day and night temperature average of the anomaly remained below normal till 16th April in most of NW and Central India. Above normal have recently started in Northern/NW and Central Sub-Continent. 

However, comparison with previous years shows the difference this year.
 In 2010, the first 45c touched on 10th. April, and on the same day Nagpur was 44c, Delhi 42.8c. Soon on 15 th April 2010,  Nawabshah (Pakistan) soared to 47c, Simla to 28.2c on 16th, Ganganagar, Akola and Hissar to to 46c. 
But, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, around same date, temperatures were  yet to reach 45c anywhere in the Sub-Continent . 

2015...Into the 3rd. week of April now, we have seen 48c in Pakistan on 19th April in Larkana,and 46.5c in Moen Jo Daro. In India we have just topped 44.6c in Barmer on 19th April.

The Line of Wind Discontinuity should normally stabilise around Central India perpendicular down into the Southern Peninsula by mid April. This enhances the speed of the Seasonal Low formation. Normally is required to start taking shape for the monsoon by the second week of April –As on date,  LWD from MP through Central Maharashtra down to Interior Karnataka is forming. 

In reality, this LWD remains till June, in variable phases, and finally merges with the Monsoon trough (axis)/ITCZ  when the ICTZ moves towards the Sub Continent.

As on 22nd. April, the lowest pressure, in the Thar Desert region is at 1002 mb. (though 2011 was 1006 mb, 2010/2012 was at 1002 mb this time). A feeble  "low" region is 

restricted to a small area at 1000 mb in Central India. As on 20th. April 2014, the core pressure in the seasonal Low, in the Thar Desert region was at 1006 mb,

As the second half of summer progresses (by 15th May): Lows over MP, Central India, Chotanagpur plateau(Jharkhand) should become less conspicuous because of the strengthening of the seasonal low over NW india.

As mentioned, Seasonal Low normally should reach a low nadir of 994 mb in June in the Thar Desert, and with 1008mb in the South Arabian Sea, a perfect gradient is created to attract the south -west winds towards the coast.

Rest of NW India too shows a marginally Higher reading of 1000/1002 mb
The quick formation of an optimum Seasonal Low was delayed due to persistent A-3, A-4 and A-5 and absence of heat wave in Central and Northern regions of the Sub-Continent.
Thunderstorm activity in Southern Tibet is also seen to be picking up. 



Indicator: -ve

2. ENSO: During January-mid March 2015, near-to-below average SSTs were observed in the eastern Pacific.Positive SST anomalies have persisted across the western and central Pacific.
Recently, above-average SSTs have strengthened across the eastern Pacific.
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 1.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.9ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 1.3ºC
NINO 3.4 is the predominant Region to see for El Nino..For our region.
The SOI is at a high level at but remains within values indicative of neutral ENSO conditions. The latest 30-day SOI value is +5.1.




El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping
3-month seasons.
The most recent ONI value
(January– March 2015) is + 0.5.

Weak El Niño conditions are present.

3. Cross Equatorial Winds: Last week, the Monsoon winds, which originate from the Southern Indian Ocean as SE winds, and cross the equator to become South-West, were weak. now, we see the re-organisation of the Southern Hemisphere SE winds, as no hindrance is seen to occur now.

Let me explain, that the winds on crossing the equator break into 2 branches. 1) gushing into the Arabian Sea, and 2) moving into the Bay of Bengal. 
In the Western Sector, the Arabian Sea branch is still struggling to get organised. Here, sufficient wind speed off the Kenyan coast has yet to form the SE flow required. But should 
re-organise fast. SE winds are now getting organised and weakly striking the East African coast between the Equator and 5N, though still weak. The Northwards movement of the 
ITCZ will surely hasten and strengthen the winds.



Today, we find, in the Eastern Sector, the winds south of the equator better organised for the Bay branch, in the region south of the Andaman Sea. SW Currents are seen off the 
Sumatra coast. Thunder cloud (Cb) developments are seen near the region South of the Equator.




And that is exactly where the start should be for the SWM to arrive at the Andamans. Upper winds at 100-400 hpa are vigorously aiding the lower winds to attain the required 
strength. We prefer the Bay Branch to be better organised, as the S W Monsoon is expected there in 22-25 days…

Mascarene high pressure zones in the South Indian Ocean. Main High reading now 1031 mb, and 2 more Highs (in the forming) have been observed, one at 1030 mb and another at 1028 mb. between Madagascar and Australia. 




The "Power House" of the Monsoon winds is slightly behind schedule, for this time of the season.
Indicator: -ve

4. But the pre Monsoon Low in the Bay is still elusive. As discussed, we should normally see a low sometime after the 15th. of April. The high pressure region in the Bay, at sea 
level, no longer prevails. I do not see much happening soon, as the region does not have the support of a strong MJO. A strong MJO would hasten the favourable formations and lows, with enhanced precipitation. We  see the MJO wave gradually weakening till 28th April at least. Seems will remain weak another 10 days thereafter.

Another factor, which helps the winds gain strength, and bring more moisture into the Indian landmass, is the sea temperatures on both sides of the Peninsula. Optimum (warm) temperatures will hasten and create more clouds, and help in faster forming of the lows from the Bay. 
This parameter, is favourable compared to last year. See comparative SST Maps with Last Year



Indicator: -ve

5. To bring the existing SE winds above the equator, the ITCZ should move northwards. Around 1st. of May, this should cross the equator. The ITCZ should now come back to its 
Northward position, as the effective "Lows" created by the Rossby Wave have fizzled out. The Western end is still dipping to around 5S, but the Eastern end has moved Northwards and is almost at 10S.

Indicator: Normal

So, overall, we can summarise as:
Parameter:1): -ve  2): El Nino (Weak).  3) -ve  4) -ve  5) Normal.

Most parameters are balanced as of today. In today's situation, Monsoon arrival could be on normal dates in Kerala and the Bay Islands, and the NE states. 
We will put up the estimated date of arrival in the MW-3.

But, situations can change fast, and by the time we discuss the next MW, some factors can suddenly become +ve or -ve. So, MW discusses and follows the developments as they 
emerge, and discuss the parameters as is where is. 
No model can commit from today when the Monsoon can arrive. Quantum of rain forecasting from April right through September is an impossible task. Things get clearer by last week of April. Vagaries' (in MW) normally remains true to estimates around early May. 

Next MW up on 30th. April with firm Dates of Monsoon Arrival.

                                                      End of Article
**************************************************************

High Intensity Rains in Kanyakumari and Trivandrum, ending 8.30 am on 22.04.2015

See Current Weather Page..

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Monsoon Watch -2, 2015 will be published on Wednesday 22nd night around 11.30 pm IST



Tirunelveli gets battered, Rainfall in Tamil Nadu ending 8.30 am on 21.04.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l over Comorin area and neighbourhood now lies over Lakshadweep-Maldives area. Nanguneri tops with super spell.

Meanwhile, Kalakkad gets second 100 mm rainfall of the year.

in mm (min 15 mm)

Nanguneri, Tirunelveli - 178
Kalakkad, Tirunelveli - 106
Kulasekharam, Kanyakumari - 57
R.S.Mangalam, Ramanathapuram - 49
Pamban, Ramanathapuram - 47
Chittar II, Kanyakumari - 46
Melpuram, Kanykumari - 44
Manur, Tirunelveli - 41
Adayamadai, Kanyakumari - 37
Koliporvilai, Kanyakuamri - 27
Kodimudiyar, Tirunelveli -  35
Kamudhi, Ramanathapuram - 32
Alankulam, Tirunelveli - 29
Pegumbahallah, Nilgiris - 29
Chittar I, Kanyakumari - 28
Mudukulatur, Ramanathapuram - 28
Manamadurai, Sivaganga - 27
Palayamkottai, Tirunelveli - 27
Vadipatti, Madurai - 26
Pillur, Coimbatore - 24
Tirunelveli, Tirunelveli - 24
Eraniel, Kanyakumari - 21
Manimutharu, Tirunelveli - 21
Karamadai, Coimbatore - 20
Tuticorin, Toothukudi - 20
Suralode, Kanyakumari - 20
Adavinayanar, Tirunelveli - 20
Pechiparai, Kanyakumari - 19
Pappakudi, Tirunelveli - 18
Upper Kodayar, Kanyakumari - 18
Lower Kodayar, Kanyakumari - 18
Sivaganga, Sivaganga - 18
Cheranmahadevi, Tirunelveli - 18
Mettupalayam, Coimbatore - 17
Kundha Bridge, Nilgiris - 17
Puthen Dam, Kanyakumari - 16
Shencottah, Tirunelveli - 16
Killiyoor, Kanyakumari - 16
Coonoor, Nilgiris - 15
Sathyamangalam, Erode - 15
Nagercoil, Kanyakumari - 15
Coonoor PTO, Nilgiris - 15
Kuzhithurai, Kanyakumari - 15
Mullinkivilai, Kanyakumari - 15
Vilathikulam, Toothukudi - 15
Servalar, Tirunelveli - 15
Perunchani, Kanyakumari - 15

2nd day of active Bordoichila rains in Assam and Meghalaya, ending 8.30 am on 21.04.2015

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Sub Himalayan West Bengal and neighbourhood now lies over Assaam & Meghalaya and neighbourhood and extends upto 0.9 km asl.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Assam

Matijuri - 73
Dhupdhara - 67
Harinagar - 40
Guwahati - 37
Silchar - 37
Bokajan - 34
Lakhipur - 30
Kadamtal - 30
Nazira - 28
Neamatighat - 20
Numaligarh - 20
Amraghat - 20
Teok - 20
Maranhat - 15
Gharmura - 15
Jorhat - 14
Karimganj - 14
Morang - 11
Dhubri - 11
Goalghat - 10
Tangla - 10
Haflong - 10

Meghalaya

Williamnagar - 60
Cherrapunjee - 48
Tura - 40
Rongara - 36
Mawkyrwat - 30
Nomgostin - 24
Mawsynram - 20
Barapani - 10

Monday, April 20, 2015

Sunday 19th Actual Maximum Day Temperatures v/s Vagaries' Forecast....


WD rains are back in Kashmir, ending 8.30 am on 20.04.2015

The Western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto 3.1 kms a. s. l. over north Afghanistan and adjoining Pakistan persists with a trough aloft with its axis at 5.8 kms a.s.l. running roughly along Long. 68°E to the north of Lat. 30°N.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Gulmarg RS - 76
Kupwara - 69
Pahalgam - 56
Harran - 48
Baramullah - 48
Quazigund - 47
Srinagar - 45
Malangapura - 44
Rambagh - 43
Anantnag - 41
Kukernag - 37
Khudwani - 31
Zainapora - 30
Banihal - 26
Govindapura - 22
Batote - 18
Bhaderwah - 10
Jammu - 10

Mango Showers continues in Kerala, ending 8.30 am on 20.04.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l over Comorin area and neighbourhood persists.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Kanjirappally - 75
Perinthalmanna - 65
Angadippuram - 62
Myladumpara - 56
Thenmala - 39
Konni - 35
Manjeri - 25
Kozhikode - 22
Ottappalam - 21
Irikkur - 21
Ponmudi - 15
Mancompu - 15
Mattanur - 14
Kumarakom - 12
Vadakkancherry - 10
Haripad - 10
Kunnamkulam - 10
Kottayam - 10
Idukki - 10
Meenangadi - 10
Kakki - 10


Saturday, April 18, 2015

The Hot spell as shown in forecast map (Friday Post Below)  in effect on Sunday !!

Hottest in Asia: Larkana 48°C

Sunday 19th April Maximum Temp: 
Larkana 48°C, Moenjodaro 47°C, Nawab Shah 46°C, Padidan,Rohri, Sukkur 45°C. Islamabad 26°C, Lahore 38°C, Karachi 36°C, Faisalabad 39°C, Multan 40°C, Hyderabad 42°C.( Sent by Fakhar Hasnain Awan)

India's Hottest on 19th April:

Kandla 44.6c, Jaisalmer 44.5c, Rajkot 43.6c, Barmer 43.4c, Bikaner 43.3c, Ahmadabad and Wardha 43.0c, Nagpur 42.8c and Bhopal 42.7c, Raipur 41.4c.

Delhi touches 40/41c...as estimated on Sunday 19th...
Sjung 40.6c
Palam 41.4c
Noida 40.5c
Indirapuram 40.7c

Gurgaon 43.5c

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted Friday 17th Night:
Heat To Increase in Most of Sub Continent Regions  from 18th through 21st April.




Kolkata may see a rise in day temperatures on Saturday and Sunday to touch 39c/40c this weekend. 
Kolkata may see it rising to 41c early next week, peaking on Tuesday or Wednesday to touch 42c.

A Glance at the April records for Kolkata (from Santosh) :-
1. Highest Maximum Temp of April (All time record) - 43.3°C (Alipore) (25th April , 1954) and 42.8c (Dum Dum) 25th April 1954
2. Highest Maximum Temp of April (Last 10 Years) at Alipore-
A. 41.2°C (19th April 2009)
B. 41.2°C (25th April 2014)
3. Highest Maximum Temp of This Year (2015) - 38.5°C (3rd April 2015) 

Next bout of rain for Kolkata most likely on Thursday 23rd.

Delhi NCR expected to touch 40/41c on Sunday and Monday.

Major Centres Day temps in India on 17th April:

Barmer (India) 43.5 °C
Jaisalmer (India) 43.5 °C
Bhuj-Rudramata (India) 43.2 °C
Rajkot (India) 42.7 °C
Jodhpur (India) 42.0 °C

Hot Centres Of Pakistan

Nawabshah (Pakistan) 45.0 °C
Pad Idan (Pakistan) 45.0 °C
Chhor (Pakistan) 44.5 °C
Hyderabad Airport (Pakistan) 42.5 °C
Sibi (Pakistan) 42.0 °C
Badin (Pakistan) 41.5 °C
Jacobabad (Pakistan) 41.5 °C
Rohri (Pakistan) 41.5 °C

Max temps Figures from Gujarat Weather


After a lull, Bordoichila hits Assam, Tripura, Arunachal and Meghalaya, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 19.04.2015

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and neighbourhood now lies over Assam & neighbourhood and extends up to 1.5 km asl.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Assam

Silchar - 65
Borpathar - 60
Matijuri - 50
Harinagar - 50
Amarghat - 41
Goalghat - 40
Haflong - 40
Kadamtala - 40
Teok - 31
Lanka - 30
Tinsukia - 30
Kajalgaon - 27
Jorhat - 26
Nazira - 25
Sibsagar - 25
Dibrugarh AP - 23
Dhubri - 23
Kokrajar - 22
Bokajan - 18
North Lakhimpur - 17
Rangia - 16
Kakopather - 16
Gossaigaon - 16
Goalpara - 15
Morang - 15
Baihata Chariali - 10
Nalbari - 10
Dhemaji - 10
Barepata - 10
Mushalpur - 10
Guwahati - 10
Majbat - 10
Tangla - 10
Maranhat - 10
Moran - 10

Arunachal Pradesh

Arzoo - 65
Etalin - 64
Tuting - 60
Khupa - 47
Anini - 28
Wakro - 27
Miao - 23
Geku - 19
Bordmusa - 15
Passighat - 10
Itanagar - 10
Tawang - 10
Khupa - 10

Meghalaya

Cherrapunjee - 44
Nongstoin - 57
Jowai - 50
Khleriat - 43
Williamnagar - 39
Rongara - 27
Shillong - 26
Tikrikilla - 20
Mairang - 10

Tripura

Kailasahar - 78
Agartala - 53
Jirania - 38
Kadamtala - 39
Belonia - 25
Amarpur - 11
Tura - 10

Moderate Rains continue in Tamil Nadu ending 8.30 am on 19.04.2015

A cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l lies over Comorin area and neighbourhood.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Periyakulam (A), Theni - 53
Periyanaickenapalam, Coimbatore - 43
Valparai PTO, Coimbatore - 42
Pegumbahallah, Nilgiris - 35
Kundha Bridge, Nilgiris - 32
Upper Bhavani, Nilgiris - 23
Kallikudi, Madurai - 22
Lower Nirar, Coimbatore - 19
Sholayar Dam, Coimbatore - 19
Chinnakallar, Coimbatore - 18
Anaimalai, Coimbatore - 18
Andipatti, Theni - 18
Shoolagiri, Krishnagiri - 17
Macdonaldschoultry, Salem - 13
Chellampatti, Madurai - 12
Coonoor Agro, Nilgiris - 12
Rajapalayam, Virudhunagar - 10
Pachapatti, Karur - 10

Tamil Nadu continues to record 100 mm rainfall, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 18.04.2015

The trough of low at mean sea level over southwest Bay of Bengal persists. Sivagana, Theni, Kanyakumari and delta got heavy rains. After Vellore, Chennai, Madurai, Salem, its the turn of Trichy to  get battering.

in mm (min 30 mm)

Eravangalar, Theni - 120
Tirupuvanam, Sivaganga - 101
Kottar, Kanyakumari - 93
Budalur, Thanjavur - 92
Attur, Salem - 86
Thathiengrpet, Trichy - 85
Kammapuram, Cuddalore - 73
Navalur Kottapattu, Trichy - 72
Chittar II, Kanyakumari - 72
Vathalai Anaicut, Trichy - 67
Devmanagalam, Trichy - 66
Grand Anaicut, Thanjavur - 62
Mylaudy, Kanyakumari - 61
Manalar Dam, Theni - 60
Kuppampatti, Trichy - 60
Virudachalam, Cuddalore - 59
Sethiathope, Cuddalore - 57
Thirupparankundram, Madurai - 56
Budalur, Thanjavur - 52
Chhittar I, Kanyakumari - 52
Manamadurai, Sivaganga - 52
Thammampatty, Salem - 51
Ulundurpet, Villupuram - 51
Samayapuram, Trichy - 50
Tirumangalam, Madurai - 50
Sembanarkoil, Nagapattinam - 48
Puduchatram, Namakkal - 47
Trichy Junction, Trichy - 46
Manachanallur, Trichy - 45
Lalgudi, Trichy - 45
Madukkur, Thanjavur - 44
Avalanche, Nilgiris - 44
Sholavandan, Madurai - 43
Gengavalli, Salem - 42
Narikudi, Virudhunagar - 42
Adayamadai, Kanyakumari - 41
Thiruparappu, Kanyakumari - 40
Kamudhi, Ramanathapuram - 40
Madurai West, Madurai - 40
Thottiyam, Trichy - 39
Valangaiman, Tiruvarur - 38
Madurai AP, Madurai - 38
Nandhiyar Head, Trichy - 38
Thiruverambur, Trichy - 37
Manalmedu, Nagapattinam - 37
Sattur, Virudhunagar - 37
Arani, Tiruvannamalai - 37
Thuvakudi, Trichy - 36
Edappadi, Salem -36
Mayanur, Karur - 35
Trichy AP, Trichy - 35
Trichy Town, Trichy - 34
Salem, Salem - 34
Virkanuar, Salem - 35
Kaveripakkam, Vellore - 34
Gingee, Villupuram - 33
Madurai South, Madurai - 33
Golden Rock, Trichy - 32
Tirukattupalli, Thanjavur - 32
Keeranur, Pudukkottai - 31
Thuraiyur, Trichy - 31
Mettur, Salem -  31
Kalakadu, Tirunelveli - 30
Rasipuram, Namakkal - 30
Kodavasal, Tiruvarur - 30
Dharamapuri, Dharmapuri - 30
Yercaud, Salem - 30
Shencottah, Tirunelveli - 30
Thanjavur, Thanjavur - 30
Pulivalam, Trichy - 30
Thenparanadu, Trichy - 30

I cant recall a better April for Tamil Nadu than this year, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 17.04.2015

The trough of low at mean sea level over southwest Bay of Bengal persists.The cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood has moved away westwards.

in mm (min 20 mm)

Hosur, Krishnagiri - 123
Shoolagiri, Krishnagiri - 73
Chittar II, Kanykumari - 57
Valparai Taluk Office, Coimbatore - 55
Perambalur,  Perambalur - 53
Palladam, Coimbatore - 40
Puthen Dam, Kanyakumari - 39
Suralode, Kanyakumari - 39
Valparai PTO, Coimbatore - 38
Perunchani, Kanyakumari - 38
Upper Anaicut, Trichy - 37
Thuraiyur, Trichy - 35
Salem, Salem - 34
Rayakottah, Krishnagiri - 33
Chittar I, Kanyakumari - 32
Denkanikottai, Krishnagiri - 32
Kothagiri, Nilgiris - 28
Thiruvidaimaruthur, Thanjavur - 28
Sulur, Coimbatore - 27
Tozhudur, Cuddalore - 26
Nagapattinam, Nagapattinam - 25
Sholayar Dam, Coimbatore - 24
Karunkulam, Thanjavur - 24
Barur, Krishnagiri - 23
Tirupattur, Vellore - 23
Pochampalli, Krishnagiri - 23
Mettupalayam, Coimbatore - 22
Chinnakalar, Coimbatore - 22
Naduvattam, Nilgiris - 22
Tirupathur PTO, Vellore - 21
Tirumurthi, Coimbatore - 20
Thalavadi, Erode - 20
Krishnagiri, Krishnagiri - 20
Sendamangalam, Namakkal - 20
Mettur, Salem - 20
Penucondapuram, Krishnagiri - 20
Pollachi, Coimbatore - 20
Chettikulam, Perambalur - 20
Namakkal Nicra, Namakkal - 20
Trichy Town, Trichy - 20
Ichanvidudhi, Thanjavur - 20
Golden Rock, Trichy - 20
Trichy Junction, Trichy - 20
Thenparanadu, Trichy - 20

Mango Showers Continue in Karnataka without break, Rainfall ending 8.30 am 17.04.2015

The cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood has moved away westwards.

in mm (min 20 mm)

Balluru - 80
Hoodi - 78
Hosakere - 76
Gangavarachow Dappanahalli - 65
Thopanahalli - 61
Abbenahalli - 57
Bengaluru Kial - 55
Maddur - 49
Krishnarajapet - 46
Honnudike - 41
Halaganahalli - 41
Thayalur - 40
Seelunare - 40
Dammaningala - 40
Kadahalli - 38
Anekal - 38
Kudur - 37
Hunsur - 36
Magadi - 35
Kanakapura - 34
Halagur - 34
Hoskote - 33
Karadi - 32
Mudabalu - 30
Ravandur - 29
Saggiam - 25
Tekal - 24
Kestur - 23
Solur - 22
Markandeyanakere - 22
Kamasandra - 22
Manchanbele - 21
Malemahadeshwara Hills - 20
Nelamangala - 20
Shantigrama - 20
Kundana - 20
Anantapur - 20
Masti - 20
Thanakushanur - 20

Anybody noticing Kerala, its getting rainfall daily, ending 8.30 am 17.04.2015

The cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood has moved away westwards.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Pambla - 89
Perinthalmanna - 66
Thenmala - 60
Punalur - 50
Angadippuram - 49
Idukki - 34
Vadakkancherry - 34
Munnar - 32
Idamalayar - 30
Neeriyamangalam - 24
Chimoni - 23
Poringal - 18
Chalakudy - 18
Ponmudi - 17
Ottappalam - 17
Palakkad - 13
Pattambi - 12
Myladumpara - 12
Mannarkad - 11
Vellanikkara - 10
Vyanthala - 10
Vazhathope - 10

Its getting better and better than NEM, Historic April Rains in Tamil Nadu, ending 8.30 am on 16.04.2015

The cyclonic circulation over central parts of Madhya Pradesh & Neighbourhood persists and now extends between 3.1 & 4.5 kms a.s.l.  The
trough from central parts of Madhya Pradesh to Lakshadweep area now runs from southern parts of Uttar Pradesh  to Comorin area extends  between 5.8 & 7.6 kms a.s.l.

The  trough  of  low  at  mean  sea  level  over  south  Andaman  Sea  and adjoining  southeast  Bay  of  Bengal  now  lies  over southwest Bay of Bengal.

Chennai gets 100 mm rainfall in less than hour. Entire Theni and Madurai district got battered. Tiruppur getting second day of 100 mm's. Isnt the current spell better than NEM.

in mm (min 50 mm)

Periyakulam, Theni - 145
Marudhanadhi dam, Theni - 140
Taramani, Kancheepuram - 116
Dharapuram, Tiruppur - 110
Mulanur, Tiruppur - 108
Aranmanaipudur, Theni - 107
Theni, Theni - 106
Chennai AP,Kancheepuram - 103
Tirumangalam, Madurai - 102
Vaigai Dam, Theni - 102
Devakottai, Sivaganga - 100
Erode, Erode - 99
Komarapalayam,     Namakkal - 94
Bhavani, Erode - 91
Kamatchipuram, Dindigul - 88
R.S.Mangalam, Ramanathapuram - 82
Palani, Dindigul - 81
Aravakurichi, Karur - 81
Thenkasi, Tirunelveli - 76
Paluvidihi, Karur - 72
Anna University, Chennai - 69
Manamelkudi, Pudukkottai - 69
Pulipatti, Madurai - 67
Pennagaram, Dharmapuri - 65
Manjalar, Theni - 65
Andipatti, Theni - 65
Vadakadu, Theni - 63
Parapalar Dam, Theni - 63
Aruppukottai, Virudhunagar - 63
Madurai AP, Madurai - 63
Upper Kodayar, Kanyakumari - 62
Kadaladi, Ramanathapuram - 61
Anaipalayam, Karur - 59
Tiruppur, Tiruppur - 58
Kolapakkam, Kancheepuram - 57
Melur, Madurai - 54
Usilampatti, Madurai - 52
Sankarankoil, Tirunelveli - 51
Ayikudi, Tirunelveli - 51
Thaniamangalam, Madurai - 50
Kovilankulam, Virudhunagar - 50
Dindigul, Dindigul - 50
Karur, Karur - 50