31st December...

Continuing from yesterday's post, 

Year end bonus for Chennai... Mean total rainfall for Chennai in Dec is just 177.4 mm.. And ⇓

Massive Rainfall in Chennai & the suburbs. Rainfall ending 8:30 am on 31.12.2021

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------in mm (min 60 mm)

DGP office - 237

Avadi - 230

MRC Nagar - 215

Nungambakkam - 201

Poonamallee - 201

KK Nagar - 197

Ambattur - 196

Anna University - 190

Tondairpet - 190

Chembarabakkam - 189

ACS Medical College (Vanagaram) - 185

Nandanam - 184

Aynavaram - 177

Alwarpet - 173

Perambur - 155

Meenambakkam - 149

Kottivakkam - 145

Valsarawakkam - 143

Shollingnallur - 124

Adyar - 120

Korattur Anaicut - 118

Mogappair East - 110

Tirur (Sevvapet)- 109

Redhills - 103

Poondi - 97

Kelampakkam - 94

Anna Nagar West - 93

Pallikaranai - 90

Cholavaram - 90

Tamaraipakkam - 90

Anna Nagar - 87

Sriperumbedur - 86

Tamabaram - 69

Sathyabama University - 64

Hindustan University - 63

Katupakkam (near Vandalur) - 62

Tiruvallur - 56

Reasons Analysis by Vagarian T.Gokul (Pune) :

Leading edge of a moisture filled easterly surge approached Tamilnadu coast with winds decreasing around the edge.... probably leading to moisture convergence in the lower levels and at the same time the divergence associated with the upper level trough (east of trough axis ) probably aided in dynamic lifting by providing upper level ventilation to the column....and along with some frictional convergence as it neared the coast .... Broad understanding...

Large amounts of moisture flux over Southern bay of Bengal from south China sea

Easterly wind surge in the lower levels equatorward side of the Siberian high

Upper level divergence was seen to the east of trough axis

Information and post courtesy to Vagarian T.. Gokul.

Posted 30th December

Chennai to receive good showers next 3 days...

5pm Thursday ⬇

After a poor performance in December, Tamil Nadu on 30th & 31st could Possibily see  the final NEM spell  over coastal regions bringing Moderate increase in rainfall.

FAQ.. Which is the Coldest time of the Day... 

See Weather Knowledge Page

35 &36.

Two new updates on Weather knowledge. 

Maintaining the goal (24th and 28th December post), several cities in Maharashtra recorded minimum temperatures as follows:

Mumbai Colaba 18.6°C 

Mumbai Santacruz 17.4°C 

Matheran 15.4°C 

Pune Shivajinagar 12.4°C 

Nashik 11.6°C 

Rainfall in the Regions mentioned in our Post of 24th, 

As on 29th Morning

Weather forecast posted 28th Tuesday, for next 4 days (29th Dec-1st Jan) - cooler now but warming up by New Year.

Mumbai: The typical Mumbai winter feel will persist today (28th) and tomorrow 29th December. Temperature will rise from 30th, with max temperature reaching 33°C or higher on 31st December and 1st January as easterly winds affect the west coast during most of the daytime (blocking the pleasant sea breeze). Min temperature may rise to around 20-21°C (Now 18/19c) by New Year. 

Interiors in Thane district may see slightly cooler nights than Mumbai. 

Pune: Not much change in the temperatures, single digit min still eludes the city. Slight increase in min temperature likely from 31st December. Max/min may remain around 29°C/14°C. 

Aurangabad region - After cooler weather tomorrow, night temperature likely to increase from 30th December. Max/min temperature may be in the range of 30°C/14°C.

Posted 24th December ..Afternoon

Wet spell over northwest and central India: 

26th Onwards: Rain/Snow in J&K, Ladakh, H.P, and Uttarakhand.

27th Onwards: Regions covered with Moderate rains  will be Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and Uttar Pradesh and  over Rajasthan.

27th-29th Onwards: Precipitation will cover Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh  &Vidarbha.

Scattered Rainfall/Thunder likely on 27th/28th/29th  in Vidharbh ( Nagpur/Akola) and parts of Marathwada (Aurangabad) on 28th..

Weekend 3 days Weather 24th/25th/26th:

Mumbai: Sunny pleasant/hazy weather with the temperatures around the 29-19c range.

Pune cool at around 30-13c range.

Mahabaleshwar will be cool around the 23-12c range.

 What is UV Index...Explanation on Weather Knowledge-35 Page

Please read this Page often...Loads of Weather Details.

 Mumbai/Pune/Hill Station Weather forecast from 20th to 24th December:

Mumbai, Pune and all of konkan and western Maharashtra will see a gradual drop in temperature in the coming 3-4 days, and more specifically after 21st December. 

Mumbai minimum may be around 18°C and possibly drop till 17°C by Thursday. Maximum temperature in Mumbai and konkan coast likely to drop from Wednesday (will be ~30°C instead of 32-33°C seen at present) as daytime easterly winds weaken and sea breeze sets in early. 

Interiors in Thane district may see min dropping till 13-14°C and further drop till 12°C by Thursday. 

Pune min may approach 10°C and outskirts may dip in single digits.

Nashik district may see single digit min temperature of 7-9°C. 

Mahabaleshwar will see min temperature of around 8-10°C while Lonavala may be cool at around 13°C.

By Shreyas

 Posted 19th December

Nichar and Kalpa in Kinnaur district experienced 10 cm and 8 cm snowfall, respectively. Kothi in Kullu got 7.5 cm snow, Sarahan and Narkanda 5 cm each and Keylong 1.5 cm snowfall.

Tourist town Manali, McLeodganj and Naddi village and Dalhousie also got mild snow to the delight of tourists.

 

 

 

 See Climatology Page on Vagaries..Super collection of Cyclone History Data by Vagarian Vineet Kumar (IITM)...Specially for Vagaries.

16th December

Posted 15th December...Afternoon: 

A cyclonic circulation is close to southern parts of Gulf of Thailand. 

It is likely to become more marked and may become a low pressure area over the same region in the next 24hr.  It may become a depression over the same area on 16th and 17th December. Around 19 th Dec, the weather system will be placed in the close proximity of South Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands.

Heavy rains in Andaman Islands.

The system is expected to recurve and fizzle out.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the second year in a row, the cooler sister to El Niño showed up  in the Eastern Pacific. 

Dec 1st Image

La Niña is expected to stick around until at least spring 2022 in the Northern Hemisphere.

This coupling of the atmosphere and ocean alters atmospheric circulation and jet streams in ways that intensify rainfall in some regions and bring drought to others.

Authour's Page Updated.."June 30th 1989 Article News... Just for Information" 

 

 Gujarat weather forecast for next 4 days (13-16 December):

Weather will gradually turn cooler in almost all of Gujarat from tomorrow onwards.

• Max/min temperature for Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar and Vadodara regions likely to drop to around 27°C/14°C by Tuesday 14th December, and a further drop to 26°C/13°C possible from Wednesday. 

• Bharuch region will see pleasant nights (around 15°C) and further drop from Thursday 16th. 

• Places in Saurashtra may also see temperatures around 26°C/12°C. Nights in Kutch may be colder with min dropping to single digits (8-9°C).

• Surat may see max dropping below 30°C from Tuesday while min may be around 16-17°C.

 Mumbai & Pune - Mid December, but Weather is still warm

Forecast for next 4 days (Monday 13th to Thursday 16th December):

Mumbai: Warm day temperature on Monday (32-33°C) due easterly winds. Both day and night temperature will drop from Tuesday as winds change to northerlies. 

Tuesday onwards, max temperature likely to be around 30°C and min may drop below 20°C. Slight increase in winds from Tuesday may reduce the haziness in the air. 

Interiors in Thane district and foothills of Western Ghats may see min temperature dropping to around 15-16°C from Tuesday.

Similar forecast for rest of the konkan belt. 

Pune: Pleasant weather will continue with max around 28-29°C and min around 13-14°C. Peak winter chill still eluding the city.

 

Kashmir valley has not received adequate rain and snow this season so far, from 01 st Nov - 09th Dec 2021.

No active western disturbance is expected in the next 10 days or maybe beyond.

December is likely to fall short of its average figure by a big margin. 

The entire Kashmir valley will witness ‘dry cold’ with temperatures recording below the normal. 

Minimum Temperatures in NW India on 9th Morning;

Punjab: Adampur 5.2c, Faridkot 5.5cBhatinda 6.0c,  Amritsar 6.8c, Gurdaspur 7.7c

Rajasthan :   

Churu 4.5c, Sikar 5.0c,, Piani 6.4c, Bhilwara 7.7c, Jaisalmer 8.3c,

Haryana:

Hisar 6.0c,, Narnaul 6.5c, Sirsa 7.9c, Karnal 8.4c

New Delhi:

Lodhi Road 8.3c, S"Jung 8.4c.

Ladakh: 

Drass -15c, Leh & Thoise  -10c, 

 Cold Wave and Below normal Night temperatures likely in Rajasthan on 9th/10th/11th December...

Churu records 4.5c on 8th.

 Vagaries forecast

औरंगाबाद जिल्हा - पुढचे ४ दिवसाचा हवामानाचा अंदाज 

पुढचे ४ दिवस (8 dec- 12 dec) हवामान विशेषतः कोरडे राहील. किमान तापमान साधारण १४°-१६°C असेल. शुक्रवार १० डिसेंबर आणि शनिवार ११ डिसेंबरला आकाश थोड्या प्रमाणात ढगाळ राहील व किमान तापमानात आणि आद्रतेत थोडी वाढ अपेक्षित आहे.

Posted on 6th December Monday night 

Forecast for next 3 days (7th to 9th December):

Mumbai: Rise in day temperature due easterly winds. Max temperature likely to be around 34°C, dry afternoons. Sea breeze setting in by late afternoon/evening. Nights will be in the range of 20-21°C. 

Interiors in Thane district may see min temperature dropping to 16-17°C.

Pune: Winter chill will be felt, especially after sunset. Min temperature may drop to around 11-12°C. Outskirts may see slightly lower temperature.

 Precipitation from Depression BB 20 in Odisha on 5th December

Outlook for the next 3 days (4th, 5th, 6th December): 

BB-20 intensified into cyclone Jawad. It will move north-northwest initially and then towards northeast and may strengthen slightly as it approaches the coast of Puri, Odisha by 5th December. It may travel along the Odisha and West Bengal coasts thereafter, bringing rain all along these regions and into northeast India. 

Rainy weather with some heavy spells likely along Odisha coast from tonight into tomorrow as the clouds associated with cyclone Jawad reach the coast prior to the storm center.

For north India, a western disturbance (D-2) is likely to affect the western Himalayan states on 5th and 6th December bringing rain at low elevations, foothills and snowfall in the mid-upper reaches. 

After the passage of this WD, cold northwesterlies will blow over northern plains, intensifying the winter chill.  

Weekend forecast for Mumbai, Pune and for all of konkan and Madhya Maharashtra: 

Mainly dry weather to return, however some patchy rain/showers likely in the vicinity of western Ghats, parts of Madhya Maharashtra and interior konkan region for another day or two because of the excess moisture push from Arabian Sea. 

Mumbai: Daytime temperature will hover around 30°C, nights will be around 22°C. Some fog may be observed during early morning hours.

Pune: Day temperature around 28-29°C, nights will be pleasant around 16°C. No major drop in temperature at nights. Early mornings maybe foggy. 

Mahabaleshwar and Lonavala to witness pleasant weather, with chance of some spotty showers and early morning fog. 

Posted Thursday 2nd Night

Mumbai & Pune : The winter rain spell in Mumbai over after record rains. Cool weather and shallow fog will prevail on Friday & Saturday morning. 

Due to weak trough alignment with BB20, Small chance of light patchy rain in some parts only, not widespread. 

----------------

The system BB 20, forecasted last week is now Deep Depression in Central Bay.

A cyclone ( Jawad) will generate by 4th.Dec.

Strong system BB20 will by pass T. N. and skirt coast of North A. P. 

May strike coastal Odisha around 5th or 6th December. 

 Cool December rains in and around Pune region ending 8:30 am on 02/12/2021 in mm(Minimum temperatures in brackets):

1.WadgaonSheri:128(16.8°c)

2.LoniKalbhor:115(13.6°c)

3.Chinchwad:103(16.2°c)

4.Dimbhe:92

5.Yerwada:89

6.Khed(15°c) & Bibwewadi(14.7°c):87

7.Vir, Tathawade & Lohegaon(15.7°c):86

8.TalegaonDhamdhere(16.2°c) & Malin(15.3°c):85

9.Chaskaman:84

10.Pashan:83(14.7°c)

11.Dudulgaon:80(16.1°c)

12.Kalmodi:77

13.Lavale(15.4°c) & Pune IMD(15.4°c):75

14.Bhor:74(15.6°c)

15.Walhe:73(16.3°c)

16.Waki:72

17.Warasgaon:71

18.Junnar:68(15.5°c)

19.Morgaon:66

17.Rajgurunagar(15.2°c) & Magarpatta(16.7°c):65

18.Talegaon(14.7°c)& Indapur(16°c):64

19.Khadakwadi:55(15.2°c)

20.Daund:52(16.3°c)

Data compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

December rains in and around Mumbai Metropolitan Region ending at 8:30am on 02/12/2021(in mm):

1.Badlapur(Vagarian Pvt Reading):118

2.Dahanu:114

3.Naupada:102

4.Vashi, Grant Road:100

5.Andheri:97

6.Dombivli, Mumbra, Goregaon & Dadar W(Vagarian Pvt Reading):95

7.Vile Parle, Vikhroli & Matunga:94

8.Airoli & Juhu:93

9.Sion:92

10.Santacruz IMD:91

11.Belapur & Colaba IMD:90

12.LowerParel & Dahisar:89

13.Nerul:88

14.KoparKhairane,Seawoods & Kalyan:87

15.Pawne & Marol:85

16.Mahalaxmi:84

17.Umerkhadi:83

18.Mulund:81

19.Kandivali:79

20.Borivali:78

21.Memonwada:76

22.Matheran:71

Data compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

Mumbai scruz 68 mms till 11.30pm

December 24 hrs record