Thursday, March 31, 2011

Mumbai Weather for WC Finals:

Saturday, 2nd. April: Clear Day will begin with high humidity and very misty. Humidity drops to 50% by afternoon, and the day's maximum temperature will be 33c. Strong NW winds at 17-20 kmph from afternoon onwards. after sunset, humidity set to increase again to 70% by nightfall.

Night temperature will be 23c at Colaba.

After several suggestions, Vagaries will give nomenclatures of AL and BL to systems from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal respectively (Thanks nt). The numbering of WDs will continue with the month alphabet as usual to avoid confusion.

So, with BL1 fizzled out after moving due east into Myanmar, we have a remnant of an UAC there in place. Nothing to be expected from this now !

And, with A1 coming along and precipitation expected from 2nd.April in North Pakistn regions and for India in Kashmir and H.P.
Cloudy weather with some rainfall in pockets will be experianced in Punjab/Haryana on 2nd. System will affect Utteranchal from 3rd.
A1 effect on Nepal after 3rd April.

Click here for enlargement of Vagaries Forecast Map for next 3 days.

For the month of March 2011,Cherrapunji recieved the highest ( as per my records) rainfall in the sub-continent: 1517 mms, i.e. 60".

Highest day temperature in Asia on 31st. March: Kurnool :40.7c and Anantpur: 40.6c.(Both India).

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

India/Pakistan Semi final Weather Status:
After last night's rain, bright sunshine in Mohali today morning. Should remain clear. winds might sweep up a dust storm by evening. Should be brief, not much rain though
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Tuesday, March 29, 2011

B1 Latest Position: Very sluggish, and refusing to gain momentum. Reason. Bay waters SST not very conducive at 29c. And resistance wind from a very stubborn M3.
Core pressure at 1006 mb, down 2 points, wind at 20 knts and situated at 8.9N and 98.6E.
Should roughly follow the forecast pattern put up, may end up a day early.

Even though it has slid into Nepal, M3 still precipitating rain/snow in Kashmir and H.P.Even Northern regions of Pakistan had medium precipitation on Tuesday.
Should move away by now, and make way for A1, coming to N.India/Pakistan around 2nd. April.

The high (43c) anticipated in Sindh before Wednesday was recorded on Tuesday at Nawabshah, at 43c. Strong 33 kmph winds kept the day temperature down to 33c in Karachi.

Mumbai, out of the blue, suddenly shot up to 38.6c !! Colaba was within reasonable limits at 34.6c. Winds were NW at not expected to make a hot day ! Surprising ??

Monday, March 28, 2011

Highest in Asia on Monday:
Nawabshah (Pakistan): 42c and Nagpur touches highest in India at 41c. Srinagar manages only 10.9c as the high while across the borders, Islamabad reaches only 22c and Kathmandu sees 19.5c. Showers there keep temperatures down during Monday.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Vagaries' weekend forecast for the sub-continent, was almost "adhered to", if i may use the terminoligy, in terms of temperatures and weather systems.
Sub-Continent Weather Forecast for Mon/Tue/Wed/Thursday; 28th,29th,30th. 31st.March.Click here.

Vagaries' analysis is towards sporadic rains for Mon/Tue/Wed for the states of Kashmir, H.P. and hills region of Utteranchal. Resulting from a fading M3. This system slides into Nepal on Monday.

93B is still at 1008 mb at 8.6N and 96.9E. Sustained winds are at 15 knts.
A variety of forecast estimates and opinions are given about B1. Vagaries estimates B1 to sustain in strength up to a minimum of 1004 mb (same as earlier estimate), and now that M3 is fading, move a bit Northwards from its current position. Expecting the system to fizzle out somewhere in the North-Eastern Bay region by 2nd. April.

Rains have been fairly heavy in the Bay Isalands last 2 days . Rain amounts varied from 40 mms to 100 mms cumulative. The heavy rains will continue in Andaman and Nicobar islands, as the
low will deepen and hover around the region, for almost 4 days till the 2nd.

Line of wind discontinuity, now runs from Gangetic West Bengal to south Tamil Nadu across Orissa, south Chattisgarh, Telangana and Rayalaseema. However, now at 0.9 km asl, its shifted as an UAS, and is a trough line. Likely to dis-integrate soon, the eastern end of the trough will deepen a bit, and result in precipitating heavy rains in the NE states. Bangladesh, will receive heavy rains on Tuesday, as the trough deepens in the NE region.

A trough running from Iran coast eastwards along Sindh coast into Gujarat will create some gusty and strong west winds along the regions. Gujarat will be very windy with strong westerlies at 30 kmph.

Temperatures will be contained in the plains of Northern India, with no heat waves. The odd city in Rajasthan could just touch 40c. Delhi remaining dry and around 36/37c.
Vidharbha region will touch a high of 42c next 3/4 days. For Nagpur, 42c is just round the corner.

Northern regions of Pakistan will get some sporadic rains in the next 2 days.
For Islamabad, Monday will be cool and cloudy with a shower, keeping the day cool at 25/26c.Days will not exceed 31c on Tues/Wed. Rest of Pakistan will be mostly dry.
Windy westerlies in Karachi next 3 days will keep the high restricted at 32/33c.
Highest in Sindh could be jumping to 43c before Wednesday.

Nepal will get precipitation from M3 till Tuesday. Days should be cool, as Kathmandu was raining today and was at a day's maximum of 24.7c. Kathmandu should get some showers till Monday, but I doubt if the capital will even reach the month's normal rainfall of 30 mms. Total till now the month's rain adds up to 9 mms.

Forecast for Mumbai:
Sweaty Days Ahead:
Mon/Tuesday/Wednesday: Some clouding, around 2 OKTA, with NW breeze. Humidity set to rise. Direct sun will tend to be hot in the day, but a little relief in the evenings with NW breeze. Temperatures on all days will be in the 33c/25c range at Colaba and 35c/23c range at S'Cruz.

Saturday, March 26, 2011

The Bay of Bengal is starting its seasonal buzz. B1 is born, and its "baby name" is 93B.

Pleas glance thru Vagaries' Forecast for the weekend, put up on 23rd, before reading this post ! -:)

93B has formed as Vagaries estimated, on Saturday, 26th, and is presently just "young" at 1008 mb. It is centred at 9.1N and 93.7E. Expected to deepen, and attain a "well marked low" status by Monday, at 1004 mb. In the next couple of days, rainfall will be heavy and tropical in the Bay Islands.

But, Vagaries maintains, the system is not going to effect the Indian Coast, and may just fizzle out, by reaching 1002 mb at the peak, by mid next week. What will be seen is a big spread of clouds, that will "infalte " by Tuesday, covering the entire Bay.
When a system deepens, and gets stronger, the clouds are concised within a limited radius, and stick together. But when a system weakens, the clouding spreads over a larger area.

M3, also which has kept its Saturday schedule, is precipitating over Northern Pakistan today, Saturday. regions in India , the hill states, have also become cloudy, and seeing snow in the Northern most regions of the Himalayas. Like mentioned, M3 will slide into Nepal by Sunday/Monday, and give pockets of precipitation, including Kathmandu.

For the rest of the regions, Pakistan and Nepal, the weekend forecast mentioned holds good. Pakistan and India, both were contained to a maximum of 40c today.

Since vagaries forecast is up to Sunday, next 4 days forecast will be put up on Sunday night.

The clouds anticipitated in central India, including Vidharbh, featured in Vagaries' forecast map on the 23rd. This as explained, is a result of the line of wind discontinuity across this region.
Now, the line still persists, (though this was not anticipated. We thought it to survive for 2/3 days), and quote from a IMD report of 26th. "The trough/wind discontinuity at 0.9 km a.s.l. now runs from Bihar to south Tamil Nadu across Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Vidarbha, Telangana, Rayalaseema and south interior Karnataka.''

Good News ! Mumbai Doppler Products are on-line !

Guys, Mark is back from his U.S. holiday, and has resumed his blog. The all important and informative " TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE
By Mark Vogan." is back on the page, with details of the latest on Europe. Please read and get updated with Mark's blog. For new reader's, Mark's link is permanently put up on the right of this blog.

Friday, March 25, 2011

Flash Snippet:

Earthquake with preliminary magnitude of 6.8 strikes Myanmar, U.S. Geological Survey reports.

A strong earthquake struck northeastern Burma on Thursday night, shaking buildings as far away as Bangkok. No tsunami was generated.The quake struck along Burma's borders with Thailand and Laos, about 70 miles (110 kilometres) from Chiang Rai. The northern Thai city sustained a little damage.

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Thursday, March 24, 2011

In our Monsoon Watch Series, readers may remember that if the event of La Nina or El Nino is present, it is considered as one of the parameters in calculation of our forecast.

Ananth, in reply to your query:

Similarly, this event could also be effecting the sub-continental summer. A La nina this year, though moderate now, and a negative IOD, will reduce the number of W.D.s , (not cease them), but not in excess too. Thus, summer rains may be just about normal in the North, indicating

that heat may be excess in the Kashmir/H.P. region, but around normal rains in the plains of the Northern Sub Continent.

Sindh and Rajasthan may heat up a bit, but not too excessively.

Similarly, La Nina usually sends easterly waves during the summer months to the southern peninsula bringing some more than normal rains. Hence near normal summer temperatures for the peninsula .

Monsoon Watch, our annual series chasing the Monsoon, will commence from 10th. April this year.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011


This was the day map on WMDay for the sub-continent. Far better than last week. With 40c as the highest for the day.

Forecast till 27th. March. Sub- continent Weather for the week-end.

Possibility of a low in the bay was mentioned in Vagaries. Let's name it B1, it should form around the Bay Islands around Saturday, 26th. March. But, as mentioned earlier, do not expect this to deepen beyond 1004 mb, leave alone effecting the Indian mainland.
Should move a bit NE initially, say on the 27th/28th, due to the passing of M3. But as M3 is too far North, and feeble, B1 will again turn North, and fizzle out before the 29th.

Yes, I have not mentioned it yet, but M3 is coming by Saturay, but will be feeble, and in the Northern parts of Kashmir.
Effect on Pakistan, also on Saturday, will be restrictd to the Northern most regions. M3, weakened and scattered, should slide into western and pockets of central Nepal on Sunday, 27th. March.

The weather chart on Thursday shows a line of wind discontinuity (where wind in opp.directions meet) running across the East-Central India region.
Caused by heating, this line produces some clouding along its run.

Could forecast some rainfall next 2 days, Friday/Saturday, in western A.P. and Orissa and Chattisgarh. Cloudy weahter in Vidharbha and east M.P. till Saturday.
Nagpur can expect clouds till Saturday, and day high at 40c till this weekend. Then, 42c from Monday !

With clouds extending into Delhi, the days will be maintained at 36c till Saturday. Sunday, expect 38c !

In Pakistan, days are contained within 40c today in the hottest Sindh desert regions. And may not see any substantial rise, maybe 41/42c till Sunday.
For Karachi, Westerly winds will continue till Sunday, keeping the day within 35/36c.
Islamabad, as mentioned before continues to be pleaant with the day not going above 30c. and will continue with this range till Sunday, with maybe some light shower on Saturday.

For Nepal, I have mentioned some rain slipping into the country on Sunday. Kathmandu too can get upto 5 mms of rain on Sunday. Day night range till Saturday will be between 30- 13c , and day will be a bit lower on Sunday.

Mumbai Forecast:
Thursday/Friday: Some clouds. Westerlies will keep range between 33c and 22c.

Saturday/sunday: Clear and a slight rise in day to 33c, but the minimum could drop a bit to 21c.

Monday, March 21, 2011

Effects of M2 were seen in the form of precipitation over West and Central Nepal. Kathmandu received 5.8 mms of rain on Monday,and the 2 days of rain has kept today's day temperature at 27.7c and the nights are still colder at 9.3c.
Pokhra got 2.2 mms of rain.
The system is now as good as over and done with.

A low seems to be on the anvil in the Bay. It could form around the 26th. of March. I personally do not see much effect on the mainland of India. Heavy falls could be expected in the Andaman Islands from Friday.
As of now, I see the system developing into a well marked low by the 27th, to around 1004 mb, and fizzling out over the North Andaman region in a couple of days. Will take a fresh review again.

Strong gusty westerlies, at around 28/30 kmph, are expected to sweep Gujarat region from Tuesday, 22nd. for 2 days. As a result, the days in the Saurashtra and Gujarat regions will be contained within the 37/38c range.
Rajkot, with gusty westerlies will be around 37c on Tuesday thru Thursday.Humidity will be on the higher side early morning, at around 75-80%.

The sharp westerlies will be sweeping the Sindh coast of Southern Pakistan too. Karachi will be windy, again from Tuesday thru Thursday, with westerlies at more than 30 kmph. Due to this, days will be contained at 33c.

A noteworthy feature: The temperatures of the last 30 days, from mid February till mid March have shown a different and interesting anomaly in 2 diversive cities of Maharashtra, and in interior A.P. and Karnataka region, which has experianced cold waves in regular intervals till March.

Mumbai, with its 41s and all time highs, shows a average going above the 1 month normal by 0.72*c, almost a degree. Actually, the lows and below normal nights during this period has brought the average down a bit. One notices the red areas on the diagram towards the heat wave period.

On the other hand, traditional hot spot Nagpur, as on 21st March, is yet to cross the 40c mark. Its diagram shows a normal range for the 1 month mentioned period. Normally, come summer, and this city initially shoots to well above temperatures.

And, now Anantpur in A.P. A huge patch of blue. Weather has been on the cooler side in this area, below normal by 1c*, till mid March.

* Please note, A fall or rise by 5/6c for a day is ok, but for longer periods, say 1 month, anything more or less by 0.5c is noteworthy and a marked variation.

Vagaries Sunday forecast on spot:  Mumbai: Maximium on Sunday 33/34 and minimum 23/20, {Colaba/S'Cruz}. Winds at WNW averaging 18 kmph. 
Vagaries Sunday Forecast not on spot: Pune maximum: 36.2c, estimated 41c (wow ! way off ). Nagpur maximum: 39.7c, estimated 41c. 

Saturday, March 19, 2011

M2 precipitation is likely to spread Eastwards into Nepal on Sunday.
Coming in from the West, precipitation will commence there from Saturday. Could be sharp and brief and in pockets.
Kathmandu can get thundershower by Saturday/Sunday. There was light rain recorded on Friday (could be convective), with a pleasant day at 22.4c

The system will move away from Pakistan by Saturday evening. No meaningful precipitation from M2 there.
Karachi slides down to 35c as expected. For Sat/Sun/Mon, the range will be between 35c -22c. Expecting change from Tuesday.

Mumbai Weather on Friday: Maximum at Colaba:33.8c and S'Cruz: 36.8c. Fall in temperatures,as per Vagaries estimate -:)
Lows were 23.3c and 18.6c at Colaba and S'Cruz respectively. Vagaries predicted minimum between 21c and 19c.

Saturday's Forecast: -(For your convenienve) Repeating and Copy/Pasting from Vagries as published on the 15th.-"Saturday: Much better than the weekdays. With NW breeze, the thermometer will manage 33c, but the mornings could be a bit pleasanter (W.D. effect) with the low dipping to 19c in the suburbs."-


Sunday/Monday/Tuesday:Hazy.Moderate day, with temperatures peaking at 33/345c. (Colaba/S'Cruz).
A fairly good Westerly breeze in the evenings, on all 3 days mentioned, blowing at around 15-17 kmph will keep the temperatures in control.

But, people are going to feel more sweaty and the "real feel" will be more uncomfortable, as with the west (sea ) breeze, humidity levels are set to increase. From low humidities of 11% to rise to 60%.

Comforting fact will be pleasant nights and mornings at lows of between 23c and 19c (Colaba/S'Cruz).

Readers from Pune and Nagpur, hope you remember Vagaries' warning of high temperatures given yesterday for Nagpur and 3 days ago for Pune... 41c on Sunday !

Mr. Harrera from Bangkok sends this very informative weather fact for Vagaries, and I quote him:

" Yes Rajesh.

The records of coldest maxima in all Bangkok province stations are confirmed , except for the station Bangkok Metropolis.

the Thailand highest peak Doi Inthanon at 2500 aslm, recorded a min of +3.4C, with rain.

In laos in the Phou Bia at 2800aslm, i guess they ahve been very close to get snow, maybe it rained with 1-2C."

Thanks Max, its nice of you..keep it coming -:)

Friday, March 18, 2011

The Sw Monsoon is now about 75 days away, and its about time to start analysing the important factor connected with it. The LA-Nina. Sure, it is one of the factors that will be considered when Vagaries starts with its annual ritual of the Monsoon Watch " series.

For the readers, information,, the Monsoon Watch will commence with its first article on 10th. April.

Today, just a brief write up with the latest on the La_Nina front.

The Pacific Ocean of the La-Nina region, has warmed up to aa certain extent . Upto last week, the warming was:
As of last week it was warmer by 0.6c in NINO3, 0.5c in NINO3.4 and 0.4c warmer in NINO4.
The actual SST anomaly was -0.5c,-1c and -1.3c in NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 respectively.

However, in spite of this weakening of the La-Nina, the effects, atmospheric parameters, have not been as prominent. Meaning, trade winds (stronger than normal), cloudiness ( near the date-line continues to be strongly suppressed) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). These remain consistent with a well developed LaNiña event.

The SOI as on 14th. March was +26, still posively strong. More of this in our Monsoon Watch, as, La-Nina will be one of the parameters. (Remember, El-Nino was a strong parameter in our previous MW).

The estimated life by IRI, of this event is shown in this histogram.

However, you can't be certain that the La Nina episode will end. The average of the models simulations just mildly crosses above the -0.5 °C threshold that defines the conditions.
In fact, the NOAA folks think that the ongoing La Nina episode will end and ENSO-neutral conditions will return by June 2011. That should still be enough for the ENSO cycle to negatively contribute to the global mean temperature throughout 2011, making it one of the cooler years.

Grand Success ! First Ever Spacecraft put into Mercury Orbit …For those interested in this first ever event..Click on Space News Page Now !!

Thursday, March 17, 2011

While Mumbai has broken its record high temperature, by scaling a new day time high of 41.6c at Colaba , another day time record has been broken in SE Asia , across the Bay waters.
Its Bangkok. But this record is the other way around. Bangkok, on Thursday, broke its day time maximum temperature record by dipping to its lowest ever day temperature. It had its coldest day ever at 19c. It was cloudy and overcast throughout the day there today.(As per International norms for Maximum recordings, the reading closes at 12 mid-night, local time. Hence will be confirmed to Vagaries from Mr. Harrera in a couple of hours from now).

In the sub-continent, the heat has peaked in Gujarat and neighbouring Sindh region of Pakistan. The day's maximum highs are seen in the map (Cologne Univ). Distribution of 41s in Gujarat was generous on Thursday, with Porbander, Idar, Surat and a few more cities in this range.

At present, today, the anticyclone is anchored over Gujarat, and is forecasted to shift southwards, off the Gujarat coast.
M2 clouding is prevelent in Northern India. Though not much rain has been recorded, it is cloudy.
As per the Vagaries' Forecast Map put up on the 15th, the day temperatures are expected to rise in the plains of N.India. Cities in the North will see the days now moving towards the 40s.

Normally, the day temperatures experianced in Mumbai and Nagpur last few days could have been easily interchanged. Mumbai has been going thru "Vidharbha like" days with the thermometer scaling 41.6c, while Nagpur has been averaging 36-38c.

From Friday, the reversal could take place. Nagpur temperatures are to rise from Friday, and reach 41c by the weekend.

As expected, M2 should precipitate some rains in the Northern regions of Pakistan. Temperatures in the Sindh region should scale down a bit, as explained in the 15th. write up.Northern cities will remain in the current range.

Pakistan Weather forecast put up on 15th. hold good.

Mumbai Weather:
Colaba came up with 38.4c on Thursday, but Santa Cruz was defiant at 41.0c. Thursday's expectation put up in Vagaries was 37c.
Low was 20.5c at S'Cruz and 23.5c at Colaba.

Anyway, our forecast put up on 15th. for Mumbai should hold good. Relief for Konkan and Gujarat from Friday. M2 has arrived.

I think the peak of the heat's done with,and relief will be from tonite itself. Mumbai should see something around 33/34c on Friday. Winds have changed direction, and the anti-cyclone at 500 mb has moved away.

The hottest in Asia was 42c at Bhuj in India and Hyderabad and Nawabshah in Sindh ,Pakistan.Major cities in Gujarat were expected to peak today, and it was 41c in Ahamdabad, Baroda and Rajkot on Thursday.

More detailed sub- continent weather news at 9.30 pm tonite.
Heat wave due to anti-cyclone at 500 mb level over coast yesterday. As forecasted in Vagaries, peak heat will be over Gujarat today, as anti-cyclone has shifted over Gujarat today morning.

M2  arrives over India on schedule.
Mumbai: 37.3c at 12 noon. Humidity 11%. Avoid direct sun and have more liquids. Mumbai not familiar with low humidity.
Days will get relief from Friday as explained in Vagaries.

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So, Mumbai Colaba reaches its all time high for ANY MONTH today, 16th. March 2011. In its long history of weather observation, since 1st. Jan 1847, Wednesday's 41.6c is the highest recorded. Previous highest for any month till today was 40.6c on 19th. April 1955.

S'Cruz, with today's 41.3c, is just shy of its March high of 41.7c, recorded in 1956. The highest ever for any month in the suburbs is 42.2c touched in 1952 on 14th. April.

As per vagaries forecast put up yesterday, 15th March, Mumbai has one more day of over 38c day temperature. Heat is expected to ease from Friday, when it should slide down to 33c.

A Look Out for Pune ! Day is expected to be Hot on Saturday/Sunday, with the temperature shooting up to 41c. Mahableshwar can rise to 33c on the weekend.

The highs in the (Western) Sub-Continent are peaking on Wednesday/Thursday as estimated in Vagaries.
The highest in India on 16th. was at Mumbai Colaba at 41.6, closely followed by Bhuj at 41.5c. Ratnagiri was at 41c (also an all time record for Ratnagiri for any month) along with Mumbai S'Cruz at 41.3c.

Chhor in Pakistan topped the chart in Asia at 42c. Karachi shot up to 40c on Wednesday.

All SubContinent Forecast on M2 and temperatures put up on Tuesday,15th. stands valid.
Forecast Reproduced from yesterday's blog to make it easy for readers -:)
"But, Gujarat and Maharashtra, especially the Konkan, which has days shooting up to above normal heat wave conditions, with temperatures above 40c, will see the day's heat peaking on Thursday, with a 42c in Gujarat, before retreating to 38/39 Friday onwards. Gujarat will see a restrain in day temperatures only by the end of this week".

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Flash News:
Today , Wednesday 15th. March, highs: Mumbai Colaba: 41.6c. Santa Cruz: 41.3c.

Highest ever for March in Colaba. Previous March record at Colaba: 40c on 8rd of March 1958, 3rd 1981, and 16th.2007.
Record for S"Cruz stans at 41.7c on 28th. March 1956.

Detailed blog will be put up a bit late tonite, after 11.30 pm.
Flash Snippet:

Mumbai at 39c at 1.00 pm on Wednesday. Humidity is 11%.

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Ashokbhai (Rajkot) draws my attention to a very interesting, and significant observation of Tuesday, 15th. March, at Ahamdabad airport. He shows, that at the airport observatory site, which can be checked by here, he noticed that the highest reading on Tuesday was 43c at the airport.

And this was nowhere mentioned nor confirmed by IMD .IMD Met. office in the city shows 39.3c as the max. on their site. IMD declared Barmer at 41.3c as the highest yesterday.

Very interesting, and Noteworthy observation ! We must have missed out a few unusual highs this way (hope not). Will have to check all airport readings personally for more accurate and missed out information henceforth !

Pasted below is the reading referred to from the site.

Mar 15 @ 10:10 210° 5 6000 43° 109° 43° 10% 29.73 1007

Mar 15 @ 09:40 220° 4 6000 43° 109° 45° 11% 29.73


By the way, Municipal office at Thane shows a high of 40c recorded on Tuesday.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI NEAR SENDAI, JAPAN..see satellite images here and more here.

The Heat is on in the Konkan. Ratnagiri again reaches 39.4c, i.e. 9c above normal.

The extreme heat on the 15th of March is in the Sindh/Gujarat region, with Turbat in Pakistan scaling 42c, and Bhuj at 41.2c alongwith Rajkot at 40.5c.

And Turbhat in Pakistan has managed a 42c, and Karachi touches 38c, (both estimated by Vagaries) with 39c possible on Wednesday.

The Northern plans of India and Pakistan are measuring into the mid 30s (See map). Now these regions will rise into the high 30s this weekend, un- mindful of M2.

W.D.(M2) is approaching India and expected to precipitate rains in the Northern States of Kashmir and H.P. from Thursday, 16th. March. M2, is expected to gain by Saturday/Sunday as the depth at the 700 mb levels is expected to be around -40, enough to precipitate fairly good rains in the state and snow on the higher ranges on Saturday.

M2 temperature effect: It will keep the weather in the extreme North hilly region cool enough for normal regional pleasant weather to continue in the hilly states.
System may not be effective to contain the rising temperatures in the Northern plains. Temperatures in Punjab, Delhi, U.P. Haryana, and Rajasthan will see the seasonal rise this week, into the 36-40c range.

But, Gujarat and Maharashtra, especially the Konkan, which has days shooting up to above normal heat wave conditions, with temperatures above 40c, will see the day's heat peaking on Thursday, with a 42c in Gujarat, before retreating to 38/39 Friday onwards. Gujarat will see a restrain in day temperatures only by the end of this week.

Northern Pakistan will get the precipitation from M2 on Thursday.

In Pakistan, similarly the effect will be in the coastal region, with Karachi falling back to the 33c level by Friday.
Similarly, Sindh will see a peak temperature effect of 44c on Thursday, with the days getting better from Friday.
Islamabad will maintain its 30c level, but get cloudy from Thursday, when there can be a slight drop in the day temperature to around 28c.

Mumbai Weather and Forecast:

Only a W.D. can do it ! An approaching W.D, M2, is going to be the consolation factor in bringing down this continuing high day temperature trend in
Mumbai.Winds will divert back to NW, throughout the day from Friday.

Wednesday: Winds tending to veer Eastwards, so a little more rise in the
day to 38/39c. Nights going up to 23/24c due to the loght cloudings.

Thursday: Waiting for M2. Highs with NE winds will be around 37c and the variation in the day-night continues with the lows at 22c. Low humidity again makes it a "sweatless" day.

Friday: As M2 gains over the Northern most states, winds become NW to N, and the day temperature sees reason. Highs will drop by 4/5c from the last few days and reach a high of 33c on Friday. Nights will be same around 21c.

Saturday: Much better than the weekdays. With NW breeze, the thermometer will manage 33c, but the mornings could be a bit pleasanter (W.D. effect) with the low dipping to 19c in the suburbs.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Generally A Rise in Day Temperatures Expected in the Sub-Continent Next 3 Days:

The Indian region has no weather systems approaching during the next 4 days. Winds in the Northern region will continue to blow NE, say above the 20N line, and South winds below 20N. In the
region south of 20N, winds will tend to turn Eastwards from Tuesday, 15th.

Typical wind direction is aptly shown in the attached IMD wind chart.

Hence, in the circumstances, day temperatures are sure to rise. The rise ,as expected by vagaries,region wise, is shown in a map form.

An off shore trough forming off the Kerala coast may bring showers to Kerala on Tuesday/Wednessday.

Pakistan Weather for 14th-16th. March:

In the absence of a rain bearing W.D. the day temperatures are now expected to rise.
In the Sindh region, we can now expect 40s in towns like Nawabshah and Sibbi, and Hyderabad. Probably, Nawabshah or another town could manage 42c by Tuesday.
Karachi, which as expected touched the 35c mark, will show a sharper rise, with humid conditions, to around 39c on Wednesday.Nights will hover around 22c next 3 nights.
In the Northern belt too a rise in day is imminent. Islamabd should now overcome the 25 mark and head towards 30c. Nights will be still pleasant in the capital, not reallly going above 14c.

In the absence of any "diverting effect", the winds continue to blow from the NE over the city. And this was expected, as the day temperature at S'Cruz was the predicted 38c on Sunday. However, the observatory at colaba measured 36.5c.
And the much talked about variation in Vagaries was really high , with a daynight range of 21 degrees at S'Cruz and 14 degrees at Colaba. As explained , the low humidity of 25% at the minimum helped keep comfort lavels tolerable.

Forecast for till Wednesday, 16th. March:
Searching for 40c !!

Monday: On with the NE winds and the thermometer stubbornly sticks to 37c, but again, nights will be comparitively down at 20/22c as the winds turn NW. And of-course with low humidity levels.
Tuesday: Cirrus clouds will streak across, providing a veiled cover, though not thick enough to have any effect on the temperatures. High in the day will be 38/39c and the low will be 21c.

Wednesday: Winds tending to veer Eastwards, so a little more rise in the day to 38/39c. Nights going up to 23/24c due to light clouding.No diverting effect seen to change wind directions from the Konkan region.

Saturday, March 12, 2011

Space News Page Just Updated with Latest

The Heat Wave illustrated in the newly started Vagaries' Severe Weather Maps, has proved absolutely precise ! Vagaries shows the coastal belt (Konkan) and parts of North interior A.P. as the likely regions for a heat wave on the weekend.

And see the west coast temperatures on Saturday, the first day of the weekend ! Ratnagiri tops at 39.6c, (+9c), and S'Cruz records 38.1c, Colaba at 38c !

Junaid, it certainly is an all time record for Ratnagiri, for any month. The previous highest for Ratnagiri was 39.0c, on 5th. June 1969.
For March, the highest was 36.9c, on 9th. March 1922. Beaten by a 2.1 degrees !

Surprising Fact for Today, 12th. March: Ratnagiri was the hottest place in Asia today ! And Mumbai was second hottest, in Asia !

Mumbai Weather:
Vagaries' Weekend heat: Begins with a38c at S'Cruz and 38c at Colaba. And with the variation mentioned in Vagaries on Friday, a minimum of 17c at S'Cruz and 22c at Colaba, the respective range between day and night calcualtes to 21 d
egrees and 16 degrees.

Mumbai Forecast:
Sunday: Hot day with the thermometer at 38c. Again, better nights ,with the NW winds in the evening providing relief with the temperature dropping to 21c.

Monday: Warm day, again at 37c, and the minimum hovering around 20c mark.

Figures look alarming, but on both these days, the humidity will continue to be low, averaging at around 40% level.
Recalling Vagaries' estimate yesterday for Saturday, "Dryness will be felt in this coastal city", the humidity in the evening was very low at S'Cruz, at 26%, and at Colaba the humid factor was 41%. Due to this, the sweat factor is not be a botheration. Dryness, with a day- night variation of 15/16c is the "comforting" factor ! -:)
Next Mumbai Forecast for the week will be put up tomorrow night.
Pakistan and Dubai Weather Forecast also to be put up on Sunday night.

Friday, March 11, 2011

Flash Snippet:

Tsunami Waves Hitting Hawaii Now..Sea Recedes Before Tsunami...Huge Waves hit Maui.. Water rushed ashore in Honolulu, swamping the beach in Waikiki...

The tsunami will also reach the west coast of the continental U.S. and Canada at midday. Above are the expected arrival times.

Major Earthquake Hits Japan, Triggers Large Tsunami...see details here

Mumbai S'Cruz Low drops to 15.2c on Friday Morning. That is 5c below the normal.

In fact, as per my observation, this could be the lowest ever recorded at S'Cruz on this date, 11th. March, the previous being 20c in 2003. Broken by a huge margin this year for the day.
However, Colaba has maintained the Vagaries' estimate for today, and was at 20.8c

As estimated yesterday, the weekend, the day temperatures specially, are in for some heating in the coastal belt. Well, we did expect a day -night range of around 15/16c for Mumbai.

The IMD map shows a small area in the Mumbai-Pune region under a cold spell. Pune's morning was cold at 10.6c today, also 5c below normal.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Today's, 10th. march, actual day temperature map shows Anantapur achieving the first 40c. So, the Southern regions have heated up, and, taking advantage of the absence of any W.D.s, are likely to push the haeting phase Northwards now.

We see the Northern region of India (plains) in the 26-30c range. This region(Northern Plains) should now see a gradual rise in the day temepratures, and the current range will shift to 28-32c by this weekend.Details of other regions expected range, for this weekend, is given in the attached Vagaries' map.

Mumbai Weather report:
"Pleasant enough for Mumbai standards"...that's where I left off on the Mumbai forecast yesterday, and pleasant it was indeed...S'Cruz with a low of 19c and Colaba at 21c was certainly welcome for Mumbai in the 2nd week of March..and with the highs on Thursday at 32c and 33c at Colaba and S'Cruz repectively.It certainly is welcome, this March weather, for this city.

In fact, besides Mumbai, Pune and Nasik were COLD today morning at 11c,and
Jalgaon recording 12c, Madhya gripped by a mild cold wave today !

But..but.. for how long..??

Weekend Weather for Mumbai:
Friday will hover between 34c and 21c with NW winds making it feel comfortable'

Sat/Sun: E winds are back in the morning time. Pushing away the sea
breeze, the thermometer will start pushing up to 38c again and with the low humidty, dryness will be the feeling in this normally humid coastal city!
Nights in the weekend will nullify the heat to some extent with the mercury falling back to 22c. Yes ! the range between day and night will be around 15/16c.
Anantapur hits 40.2c on Thursday ! First to touch 40c in India this season ! Outbeats all Poll Candidates !

Detailed blog tonite.

via gmail.

Wednesday, March 09, 2011

Weather in Dubai:
Wednesday's high in Dubai was 30c, against a normal of 27c on this day, almost nearing the all time high for 9th. March of 31c recorded in 2001. 
The nights have been pleasant and normal at 18c. Expect some cloud cover on the weekend (Fri/Sat/Sun), thus keeping the temperatures in the day around 30/31c, but warming  the nights to around 21c.

Pakistan Weather till Sunday:
The Sindh region of Pakistan will see rising temperatures from Saturday. Hotspots like Nawabshah and Sibbi may markedly shoot up to 40c, and Hyderabad possibly touching 38c by the weekend(Sunday).
Karachi may see the current temperature range persist till Sunday, after which I see the day crossing the 36c mark.
Meanwhile in the North, it should still remain pleasant, with Islamabd hovering around 25c in the day till Sunday.

Just a Whisker Away !

Kurnool, today (Wednesday, 9th. March) at 39.8c, was just a whisker away from getting the "first to reach 40c" title.
And it is in the "other cities" category. None of our named cities were near the mark, today at least.
But things can change in a day !

Starting 6th. March, Vagaries has initiated putting up "Severe Weather Warning "maps. These could be for a) severe heat/cold, b) for very heavy rains or winds, or c) cyclones or any type of weather warnings.

No severe weather warning till Sunday, 13th. March.

And for Mumbai, the temperatures have fallen: S'Cruz settled today at 33c, (Vagaries' estimate ,34c), and Colaba was 313c. It was ok, with the NW winds bringing in the releif. And as mentioned yesterday, the night temperature tonite and tomorrow should drop to 21c. Pleasant enough for Mumbai standards.Should remaim within the 33c - 22c range till Saturday, with a chance of S'Cruz dipping to 20c.
Shall put up the weekend forecast tomorrow for Mumbai.

As Neeraj reported from Kathmandu, its been drizzling there almost throughout Wednesday. The high did not rise beyond 16c due to the 1.4 mms of rain.
Now, this was due to the weak moisture incursion towards a dying M1, which was in Nepal as a UAC on Wednesday. High level humidity in a SW path, caused by the incursion aided the formation of clouds in Central Nepal and adjoining U.P.
Lucknow too received traces of rain. Being a weak event, it is not expected to last beyond Wednesday.
As winds revert to NW direction, Mumbai gets comfort. Afternoon humidity 51%. Temperature at 12.30 pm on Wednesday: 31c. High reached as yet 32c. Probably will settle at 33/34c as predicted .

Reports Neeraj from Kathmandu:

"At 10:30 am (Wednesday, 9th March) its drizzling in Kathmandu. And the temperature is around 13 degrees C".

Day's high has been hovering around 30c last few days.

Reports Shiraz from Mahableshwar:

" Its a heat Wave here !"

Temps have touched 33c in this hill station on Monday.

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

Tuesday, the hottest temperatures ( Day) in India.
Kurnool: 39.0c, Anantpur: 38.9c, Solapur and Akola: 38.6c,
Mumbai: 38.2c and Chennai 38.0c.

39c, alongwith Prome (Myamnar) and Lamphun (Thailand) was the highest temperature in Asia too on Tuesday.
Apperantly, from information available, the highest in the World on tuesday was at Timbukto (Mali), at 43c.

(By the way, I do not consider the readings of Bhira (Mah.) as authentic nor accurate. There is some discrepency in the recordings at Bhira. Maximum as well as minimum. Even IMD daily bulletins do not acknowledge this station as the highest readings in the country).

No W.D.s till Sunday will ensure the heat will start creeping Northwards, from the existing regions. (IMD map). Anti-cyclone persists in Eastern regions.No rain expected in the sub-continent till the week end.

On Tuesday, Mumbai S'Cruz again touched 38.2c, same as yesterday. However, Colaba was at 33.5c, almost 5c lower than S'Cruz. A degree lower than Monday.

From Wednesday, days of 38c in the suburbs are over for now, and the rest of the week will see lowered temperatures of around 34c.
Nights will get a bit stuffier, with the humidity going to around 65% , and the thermometer reading 24c. Maybe Thursday night could be a bit better at 21c.

Monday, March 07, 2011

With M1 now moving away, and no W.D. in sight, sunny days are in store for most of India for the remainder of this week. Meaning the day temperature rising trend spreads Northwards.

The anchored anti-cyclone now over east/central India is likely to move east into the bay by Tuesday, 8th. March. Result ? Strong/gusty NW winds will sweep the U.P./Bihar and North Orissa regions.
And, NW winds will resume over western India, sweeping into west Mah. and Gujarat.

This will bring back to normal levels the day temperatures in the Konkan from Wednesday.However, day temperatures will remain hugh,somewhat in the current range, in Vidharbh and adjoining states areas.

Tuesday: Hot dry day with NE winds keeping the day's high at 37c (S'Cruz) and 34c at Colaba. Night's minimum too will rise to 24c.

Wednesday/Thursday: Swinging to NW, the winds will change the day temperature trend prevailing for the last 2 days. High will be 34c at S'Cruz and 33c at Colaba on wed/Thu. Nights will fall to 20c on Wed/Thu.

Today's Highs (Monday, 7th.March) in India:
Akola: 39.1c ,Solapur: 39.0c and Ramagundum: 38.8c. All 3 named candidates in Vagaries' poll. Nagpur was 37.4c.
Not a single vote has been put for Solapur, which I thought could be a very probable winner.

Mumbai reached a (very) high of 38.3c today. Colaba was at 34.6c. Strong ENE winds were the main reason for the (expected) jump. Vagaries had forecasted a 38c day for Mumbai , way back on Thursday.
Reproduce from Thursday's blog: ''Mumbai can make the most of this weather till Sunday.
Vagaries expects a rise in temperatures, albiet for a few days, from Sunday, and Monday can shoot up to 38c !"

Putting up a map showing Monday's highs. It would be difficult to list out all the 38s and 37s in India today !Compare with the forecast heat wave map put up on Vagaries yesterday.

Anyway, two 40s have been recorded today in the far east..the first in Asia this year.Moywa and Prome in Myanmar were 40c today.
Mumbai Monday: Upward climb begins. At 11 am, 34c, ENE winds and 24% humidity.

Sunday, March 06, 2011

Poll Progress:
Highest in India: Bhubaneshwar (in other cities cat.):  38.6c, Akola(candidate): 38.5c,  Solapur (candidate): 38.2c.

Mumbai inching up: 36.5c on Sunday.

Mumbai: 35c at 2:15 pm, Sunday.
For tomorrow, Monday, Vagaries has estimated 38c (check Thursday blog). Seems probable. 

Saturday, March 05, 2011

M1 is precipitating in North Pakistan today, with Parchinar in NWFP recording 42 mms and Dir measuring 28 mms. Several other stations have received between 5-15 mms.
M1 is also coming across a bit more south than estimated.

Todays UTH map shows good humidity at below 30N level, indicating more
chances of cloud formation, in the Upper Sindh region, and the regions North of Sindh in Pakistan.
Light rains will occur in Balochistan and upper Sindh, with a few pockets of rain "pop marking" the Sindh coast on Sunday.

With M1 moving into India on Sunday itself, more rain in the Northern states of Kashmir and H.P. can be expected.

Reason for Rain disruption in Sri Lanka -Australia World Cup Match !!


Poll Position:
5th. march, and seems the poll will have to wind up sooner than expected !
Today: Akola (candidate) at 38.3c and Kurnool at 38c and Bhubaneshwar at 37.9c .
via gmail.

Friday, March 04, 2011

F5 active on Friday, and precipitation on in H.P. and Kashmir:

A Friday report from Kashmir: (netindian).
Srinagar and its adjoining areas received fresh light snowfall early this morning followed by rains, 12 mm of rainfall till 0800 hrs. The Zabarwan and other hills, surrounding the city, had turned white due to snowfall,
The upper reaches in the Kashmir valley had turned white after receiving snowfall.
The entire forest area in Harwan, about 20 km from Srinagar, was under a blanket of fresh snow, resulting in cold in the plains, including Harwan, Shalimar and Nishat Gardens on the bank of the famed Dal Lake.

More than one feet of fresh snowfall was recorded on the slopes in Gulmarg.
A Met official said snow equivalent to about 34 mm of rainfall was recorded in Gulmarg till 0800 hrs. The upper reaches, including Afarwat and Khilanmarg experienced more than two feet of fresh snowfall.
It was snowing at Pahalagam also. About half a foot of snowfall was recorded in the town. Snowfall was equivalent to about 22 mm rainfall till 0800 hrs this morning.

However, heavy to very heavy snowfall was experienced at the holy cave of Amarnath and its periphery while reports of snowfall were also received from Sheshnag, Mahaguns, Panjterni, Pisso top and Chandanwari.
Light snowfall was experienced at Charar-e-Sharief while at Yusmarg and Tosamaidan heavy snowfall was recorded since last evening.

On Friday, In H.P., higher hills of Himachal Pradesh as the region had more snow and rains, while heavy rains lashed several parts of the hill state.
Gohar in Mandi district received as much as 62 mm of rains, followed by Kasol 59 mm and Bhuntar 50 mm.
The higher reaches in tribal areas experienced moderate snowfall with Kalpa in Kinnaur district receiving 20 cm of snow.

As expected, this system should now fizzle out by Saturday evening into the western regions of Nepal.

Another feeble W.D, designated M1 (for easy reference), is expected to cross into Pakistan's northern regions on Saturday evening. It will be restricting itself to areas north of 30N.

Crossing into India on Sunday, here too it will be only north of 30N mainly in the Northern states of Kashmir, H.P. and Northern regions of Punjab.
M1 will be feeble and will move away NE.

On Friday, the heat has spread towards the east. Hottest were Kolkata, Jamshedpur,
Bhubaneshwar and Solapur, all recording 37c. only Solapur is our poll candidate. Nagpur and Ramagundam were 36c.

Also re-refer temperature forecast map put up by Vagaries.

U.S. Flood Alert:
Major flood risk rises in some Minn. towns due to February snowfall:
The chance of major flooding in parts of Minnesota edged upward in the wake of heavy snow over the Presidents Day weekend.

12 to 20 inches of snow in the Minnesota and Mississippi River valleys heightened the flood risk to its most severe in at least 10 years.

In the metro area, St. Paul's risk of record flooding was raised to 45 percent, up from 15 percent last month. Jordan, to the south, now faces a 50 percent chance of record flooding, up from 20 percent. The risk for Henderson, downstream of Jordan, rose to 45 percent from 18 percent.

Another storm was forecast to bring as much as 6 inches for the Minneapolis area and southern Minnesota early next week.

And From Our Parner's Blog:

By Mark Vogan



 13th July:Mumbai lakes at 25% Storage today And rainfall last 24 hrs 👇 Ghat region of Maharashtra top 5👇