Tuesday, July 31, 2007


So, finally there seems to be some light on the horizon ! Models and the IMD have predicted the formation of a low in the central bay around the 3rd of Aug. The low will surely produce rains on the central coast of east India.The penetration of the low inland will have to be followed and studied, after its formation. But if strong and development is good, rain will be good and useful in central India, through a corridor upto Gujarat.


It is also predicted, that the monsoon trough will shift south, end of this week.


In short, it means good rains to the eastern belt and east coast from 3rd. and from the 4th. in central India and northern India.. Heavy rains along the west coast from 4th. Now, as per the strenght of the system, the rain could last throughout the week beginning 4th. Aug.

Heat in the middle east is blistering with Darhan in Saudi at 50, and Tallil in Iraq at 49, along with Kuwait.

Saturday, July 28, 2007

There seems to be an" out of turn" return of "normal" monsoon winds, though slowly, over the central parts of India, west coast and the northern belt. Even though the monsoon trough still lies near the foothills of the Himalayas, an offshore trough off the west coast has brought sudden rains to Maharashtra and Gujarat. An "upper air circulation" formed over the Gujarat region, and over east Arabian sea. This has brought rains into Maharashtra, (Alibag 170 mms, Santa Cruz 110 mms and Aurangabad 70 mms and many places in Gujarat between 40-90 mms).

Though welcome, this development was unexpected and unusually fast. Even before it could be forecasted, rains were splashed over the region. Rarely do we see such rains with a "break" trough up north.That too, without any organised monsoon "low", or any system. But this activity may be short lived,as the trough in the north still hangs on, and the "upper air circulation can die down equally fast.

The monsoon trough persisting along the Himalayas, may produce rains on its western end,that is in North Pakistan,H.P,southern Kashmir and Garhwal region in the next 2 days.

Another offshore trough is expected off the north Gujarat/Sindh coast, and may produce rain in the coastal areas of Sindh.

Meanwhile, a severe heat wave has been reported in Kuwait. the maximum temperature in Kuwait was 49 c, and in Tallil (Iraq), it was 50 c. alongwith Dahran (S.Arabia) at 50 c.Several places in S.Arabia have seen between 48-50 c.

kapadias@gmail.com


Friday, July 27, 2007

Thanks to the "break monsoon" conditions, the latest rainfall figures provided by IMD show the overall surplus down to +4% only. As mentoined last week, the surplus was +11%, but several areas have now gone into the "deficit" areas as seen in this colour map from IMD.

Still, the positive side is that there are some heavy convection thundershowers due to excessive heating in pockets all over the plains of India. Heavy short thundershowers occur ,like 61mm at Aurangabed,due to local convections,and are not any organised system.

Mumbai can get a thundershower in some areas, due to local heating, on some days till the first week of Aug. Regular monsoon rain (from the southwest) are expected only after the 3rd.

Due to a W.D. (a bit unusual for a moderate one now), some good rain occured in N.Pakistan and hills of Kashmir and H.P. However, the "break " continues till 3rd. ,when a system is forecasted to form in the bay, that is a" low."

Next week will show the expected results of the monsoon revival, if it is to happen.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

No weather report can escape the deadly heat wave in Southern Europe.

This unbelievable heat has been described by Greece as its longest heat wave in over 100 years. Temperatures have hit record high in several countries of the region.Bulgaria experienced its hottest temperatures since records began yesterday on 22nd., with the thermometer shooting above 45C (113F) in some parts. Cities in Serbia, Romania,Hungary and Greece, experianced temperatures between 43-45 c. Central Asia areas are reeling under intense heat,with the temperature touching 45 c in Turkestan,and also 45 c in Tunisia (N.Africa).

Budapest, Hungary, had its highest ever temperature of 40.6 c, and in Hungary itself, a new national record for the highest temperature was reached when Kiskunhalas reached 41.9 c !

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Well, along with the rest of the region, I too enjoined the "break"in the Mahableshwar Monsoon. Was in Mahableshwar for 4 days,but the rainfall there was just around 10-15 mm each day I was there, and even sunny at times (rare in this seson).

There has been just a scattering of rain throughout the sub continent the last week. The monsoon trough, currently running along the foothills of the Himalayas,is causing this sharp decline of rain along the west coast of India and the main peninsula area. Even the northern belt of India is now devoid of any really heavy showers. The map shows weak westerlies in the Arabian Sea off the west coast, and southerlies on the east coast. Infact, the indications of a" high" are seen in the eastern bay. Only a line of wind discontinuity is seen in the M.P.,Maharashtra area,resulting in a few thunder showers. Nothing to really suggest a quick recovery of the monsoon in the central, northern or coastal areas. No immediate signs of a typhoon in the Pacific, which would normally help booster a "low" in the bay. I think we will have to look into the 1st. week of next month, for any meaningful recovery of the monsoon ,now subdued, in most of the country, except certain parts of the north east.

As a result, the overall India rainfall, which was +18% as mentioned in my last blog, now stands lower at +10%. After the initial burst of heavy rains,the result of 2 depressions from the bay, lasting upto the first week of July, there has been a decline in the overall rain figure.

We will have to look beyond 31st. July, maybe early August, for the first few signs of a possible revival of the monsoon.

kapadias@gmail.com


Monday, July 16, 2007

The newly formed low in the bay did not, as expected, develop much.It crossed the Orissa coast, and now is over Jharkhand. The weak system is expected to move into Bihar and East U.P.

Nepal, will experiance heavy rains in a day, as the system moves northwards towards it.

The result of this will be fairly heavy rains over Bihar and East U.P and Nepal, causing some flooding in Bihar . But, on the other front, as the system moves into the Himalayas, a very weak phase of the monsoon may prevail over rest of India, and Central and south Pakistan. A"break Monsoon " condition may hold on for 5-6 days from Tuesday, in the regions mentioned. Meanwhile, temperatures in West and North India, along with temperatures in central and south Pakistan, may rise. They may go upto 46 c in Sindh and 43 -44 c in Rajasthan, and upto 3-4 c above normal in Gujarat and Maharastra, and also 3-4 c above normal in Delhi.

The overall monsoon over India is now around +18%. But end of July should see this figure going down, as the rains will be scanty for about a week now.


Thursday, July 12, 2007

The lull in the rain mentioned in the last blog continues. The monsoon trough has shifted to the foothills of the Himalayas, causing less rain in the rest of India, as retreating of the rains to the foothills of the Himalayas is associated with a weak phase of the monsoon over the rest of India. The northern hill states will get enhanced rain during the next 2 days from today.

The anticipitated low over the bay seems to be forming. An "upper Air Circulation "has formed over central Bay,which will lead to the formation of a low.The brewing low, will trigger rain over Orissa and West Bengal, say from Saturday.

Due to the strong typhoon in the Pacific,"Man-Yi", most of the monsoon flows over the sub continent have been sucked away, and are converging across the south bay. As the bay low develops, it may not get the required flow in strength, and may not develop as much as its predecessors. In fact, international models are suggesting further weakening of the flows over the peninsula.This, may be limited to a few days, and may pick up later. But the strength of the new low will be limited.
Till then, normal monsoon weather over the sub continent, except the foothills, to continue with a weak phase for another 2 days.

Jim mentions of a major cold wave in Argentina and Chile. Snow after 80 years in the capital,B.A., and snow in many places in South America for the first time.Heavy rare snow also reported from South Africa, with Jo'Burg getting unusually heavy snow.
Cold and wet June/July for the U.K.
We talk about global warming ?



Monday, July 09, 2007

The depression after passing through the centre of India has now weakened, and is over Rajasthan now.

It has poured good amounts of rain over Gujarat, M.P. and Maharashtra. Interestingly, yesterday the day temperatures over Maharashtra and west M.P. fell to 6-10 c below the normal, as is seen from this map(IMD), which shows the departure from normal. Places like Aurangabad,was 8c below the normal at 23.6c.
The rain totals are going up, and Mahableshwar, has accumalated 2966 mm from 1 June to 9th. July.

The interaction of this system with a trough in the northern areas has resulted in heavy rains in the state of H.P. and southern Kashmir. This report from "The Tribune" of the 9th. aroused my interest, and thought it was a bit unusual, and unseasonal. The report quoted"Snowfall :
The higher mountain peaks in Manali and Kangra experienced snowfall today. The seven sister peak, Shikhar Beh and Mukher beh in Manali wore caps of snow, while the Dhauladhar ranges were also snow-clad."


Anyway, both the systems are moving away, and weakened, and a lull in the rains seems to be on the anvil. Awaited is a new system in the bay, most probably.

for your views: kapadias@gmail.com

Saturday, July 07, 2007

It has been 4 days since my last posting, the "new low" I mentioned in my last blog has since crossed the coast of Orissa, and dumped heavy rain in Jharkhand and Bengal.Today it is presently over Chattisgarh as a depression.

Now, this is expected to move west-northwestwards, and as a result it will drag the rain belt along with it into M.P.and east Maharashtra, initially. Later, from Sunday, heavy rain should commence in rest of Maharahstra and eastern parts of Gujarat, as a result of the depression's northwest movement. This is because the JTWC report states that the depression has a low level circulation centre, with monsoon rain clouds along the north-west and southern fringe of its circulation. The travel path of the weakening system will be towards south Rajasthan.

But, to the East of this system, almost no clouds are seen. There is a hint of another low forming in the bay around the 14th./15th.This, may happen as a result of the system just crossing the Vietnam coast (Doraji).

India, as a whole, has recieved good monsoon rains thus far,upto 4th.July. The areawise distribution has been one of the best in recent times. Thus far the area weighted rainfall for the country overall has been 237 mm,against an normal of 197 mm, meaning excess by 20%.

The ECMRWF and the U.K. met. dept. has forecast an above normal rainfall period for India in July/August/September.

The heat seems to be simmering back into sindh, with a few places, again going back to a high of 46 c. I think the south-eastern areas of sindh may just get some rain from the weakened system appraoching the region.

I also read about some extreme heat in the west U.S. Goldboros(Calif.) was at 52c and Las Vegas at 47c, with Phoenix at 44c.That is extreme by any standards !






Tuesday, July 03, 2007

With the passing of 04B into Pakistan, the system, on the heels of 03B, has left some very high rain amounts in the states of Maharashtra and Gujarat. In my last blog of the 30th,I had given some very high rain amounts in Maharashtra for the 28th. and 29th. The heavy rains in Gujarat and Maharshtra continued for another 2 days, as the system was stationary over Gujarat for 2 days.

Some heavy rain amounts in cms of 24 hrs.period due to intense rain in the two states.

July2nd.: Cities : Broach -49, Limdi 44, Dediapada -40, Babra -37, Padra-34, Hansot -33, Mahabaleshwar -32, Ranpur -30, Chuda -26, Pardi, Jhugodin -25 each, Valsad, Silvasa, -24 each, Bhira, Barwala, Karjan, Lathi, Botad -21 each, Nandod, Gandevi, Madhuban 20 each, Rajpipla, Ukai, Palitana -19 each, Bansda, Songad, Gondal -18 each, Matar - 17, Baroda, anand, Kamrej -16 each, Jagatpuri, Mangrol - 15 each, Peth, Trimbakeshwar, Surgana, Kheda -14 each, Vallabh Vidya Nagar -13.

Ghat area: Koyna(N) - 46, Koyna (P) - 35, Tamini -34. Shirgaon - 29, Dungerwadi - 28, Ambone - 25, Lonavala (O)- 22, Khopoli, Lonavala (T) -20 each, Walvan - 19, Dharavi - 15, Shirola -14, Bhivpuri 13, Khan - 11, Wangaon -9, Thakurwadi - 8, Dawdi -3.

Broach (South Gujarat) has recieved 49 cms of rain in 24 hrs on 2nd, which is the highest ever rainfall in a day for the town. The previous record for a day for Broach was 46 cms on 5th. August 1976. And the highest 1 day rain for June was 223 mm on 17th. June 1965.

Interesting are the figures for Mahableshwar, a hill station in the Ghats:

Rain this year from 1st. june to 16th. June : 69 mm
to 28th. June: 902 mm
to 30th. June: 1259 mm
to 03rd. July: 2218 mm.

There are no records involved here, as the record for the month of June till today at Mahableshwar stands at 2808 mm in 1882.

Maybe we can check for a record for a 30 day period , from 15th. June to 15th. July later this year.

The system is now over Pakistan and seems to be moving west, but with good rain expected in the coastal areas.

Another low has developed in the bay today. The next 24/48 hrs. will be crucial to observe its development and direction of movement.