Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Parts of Mumbai and Outer townships received Thunder Showers on Wednesday evening...Hail was reported from Kalyan and Airoli.
Thursday will see Thundery Developments by evening and showers in some parts.
A UAC  is expected to form in the Arabian Sea off the South Konkan Coast by the 3rd of October...Rains likely to increase on 3rd along West Coast...more tomorrow as we follow up the situation...

Recommended to view "Vagaries Goa" for a very good Analysis..
Some Sahyadri(Western Ghats-Maharashtra) station rains in cms
(SW Monsoon 2014)...Rohit's Page
                                           
MONSOON REPORT 2014

   
    T                                    TOP TEN SUBDIVISIONS ACTUAL
                                     

                                                       BOTTOM TEN SUBDIVISIONS ACTUAL



                                             TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL
                                    BOTTOM TEN SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL                                                 CATEGORY WISE SUBDIVISIONAL (%)


                     

                                     % DISTRIBUTION ABOVE/BELOW      DAILY RAINFALL



                                                                       REGIONAL RAINFALL ACTUAL
                                                                          MONTHLY RAINFALL ACTUAL

                                                                 2014 RAINFALL IN PERSPECTIVE
                          
                                           source IMD     

                                                   All India Rainfall for Monsoon in Image from below prepared by Rohit...v
             v
                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                       

Monday, September 29, 2014

South West Monsoon Withdraws further, and may stall for next 3 days now...

Anti Cyclone in the Upper Air at 850 mb level, seen here along with the Monsoon Withdrawal Line...

and the LWD seen, keeping the Western coast and coastline "active" with Thunder showers.



Monsoon out of Delhi NCR and NW India...
But, wind pattern and 200 level jet streams indicate Monsoon still present in Coastal Saurashtra  and Maharashtra

Which means Monsoon winds still prevail in Mumbai..
Day temperatures will ease to 33/34c, and lower in Mumbai from Wednesday, 1st October, as East winds turn Northerly, and LWD becomes effective. An UAC forms off Mumbai , for a day or two, on or around 2nd October..
Mumbai can get the much awaited thunder shower 'any evening" ...its overdue since 2 days..though we see thunder showers every evening last few days in South Konkan and Goa, and along coastal Karnataka...

An afternoon Thunder shower likely in parts of Kolkata next few days...and Delhi NCR, warm with clear skies. 


Mumbai the Hottest in Maharashtra on 29th September....Mumbai Santacruz records its highest ever, hottest ever, September day today 29th , recording 37.0c !!. Previous record was 36.4c on 23rd September in 1972.
Colaba was 34.8c and Vagaries 34.5c today...Colaba IMD record stands at 35.6c on 24th September 1987 and 29th in 2010..

But Mubai was far from the hottest place in Asia...Makkah at 43c. 
Hottest in India today was Varanasi at 38c and Hissar was 37.7c....

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Posted Saturday 27th:
Forcasted 35c for Sunday, but Mumbai Scruz reaches 35c on Saturday...Colaba was 31.8c and Vagaries 31.5c on Saturday.
Clear skies..
But, Mumbai does not have to loose hopes of the departing thunder shower !!
The LWD expected to move Westwards has delayed its movement...hopefully by Sunday or Monday, it will nudge West into interior Konkan, and bring thunder showers in the Eastern Outer townships and Navi Mumbai. 
Upper winds being Easterlies, will drift the thunder cells over parts of Mumbai City...But till then, Sunday would see 35c and Monday 36c..so gear up for some hot weather, possibly cooling down by evening !


Mumbai Region and Western Ghats rainfall...Rohit's page..Highly recommended Viewing
Santosh Posts Pic of Bangalore floods yesterday...See Interactive Page..


All on schedule !!!
On Thursday...
Punalur in the midst of the UAC in Kerala measured 9 cms till 5.30 pm ....
Bangalore lashed by heavy rains as 90 mms recorded between 6 pm and 8.30 pm IST ....Super !!

After a scorching high at 33.4c,  Pune's Thursday showers also more than expected !! 58 mms in 2 hrs from 6.30 pm to 8.30 pm...with thunder.

Nasik measures 26 mms till 8.30 pm...

Lightning and drizzles in Mumbai's outer township on Thursday evening. 
Lightning flashes seen from Mumbai in the East and SE skies...so are we on schedule for the Friday and weekend Forecast ?...

Mumbai Forecast for Friday 26th- Sunday 28th....

Friday: Early morning showers in some parts. Sunny later in the day and temperature rising to 32c. Cloudy from afternoon.
Eastern skies will see development of thunder cells. 
Showers in many eastern parts of city and other parts with lightning by Friday Evening/night.


 

 Saturday. Morning cloudy with spotty rains.             


Late afternoon thundery developments from East. Showers in parts with lightning.

Sunday: Hot day at 35c...Thundery developments in parts of city. Late evening thunder and rains in parts of city.


Outer townships will get thunder showers on Friday/Saturday and Sunday. Gusty winds likely.





Pune for Friday/Saturday and Sunday: Partly cloudy day. Day around 33c. Thundery developments afternoon and evening. Thunder showers with gusty winds in many parts of Pune. A few spots get heavy downpours.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Posted Wednesday Night:

AN UAC forms in the Southern tip of the LWD...around 12/14N.
Pune receives 22 mms rainfall on Wednesday evening.
Bangalore received 26 mms overnight and 9 mms in the day on Wed.
In the East, Bahrampore received 5 cms and Gangtok 2 cms.till 5.30 pm IST Wednesday.
Mumbai Scruz touched 32c today...Some Thunder cells developed in the East and SE skies. More developments for Outer townships from Friday as forecasted.


India's Mangalyaan enters Mars orbit, makes history - 


India creates history as ISRO's first Mars orbiter Mangalyaan successfully enters red planet's orbit

September 24, 2014 will go down as a red-letter day in the annals of space exploration as the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) achieved which no space agency in world including the USA's National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) managed to do in their first attempt.

Posted Tuesday, 23rd, Night:

Mumbai will be warm at 32/33c on Wednesday 24th  and Thursday 25th. Possibility of shower in some parts in the mornings.
Friday can see thunder showers in the evening...but more detailed Friday/Saturday and Sunday on Thursday Night.

Pune will get showers in some parts on Wednesday and Thursday.

WD expected on 25th...LWD along South Peninsula..


Today Morning past 24 hrs....Cherrapunji (RKM) 544 mms, Mawsynram 523 mms, Cherrapunji 492 mms...
Cherra:9956 mms from 1st Jan and 8066 mms from 1st June.,

Mawsynram is approx 9000 mms (yet to confirm) this Monsoon..

Sunday, September 21, 2014

NASA’s Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) spacecraft successfully entered Mars’ orbit..India's MOM (Mangalyan) follows in 2 days...See Space News Page

21st September....Autumn Equinox for the Northern Hemisphere...( See Weather Report Below the Article)

Seasons are opposite on either side of the equator, so the equinox in September is also known as the "autumnal (fall) equinox" in the northern hemisphere. However, in the southern hemisphere, it's known as the "spring (vernal) equinox".

There are two equinoxes every year – in September and March – when the sun shines directly on the equator and the length of day and night is nearly equal.

The Earth's axis is always tilted at an angle of about 23.5° in relation to the ecliptic, the imaginary plane created by the Earth's path around the Sun. However, the tilt's orientation changes throughout the year. On any other day of the year, the Earth's axis tilts a little away from or towards the Sun. But on the two equinoxes, the Earth's axis tilts neither away from nor towards the Sun and is perpendicular to the Sun's rays, like the illustration shows.


Why is it called equinox?

On the equinox, night and day are nearly exactly the same length – 12 hours – all over the world. This is the reason it's called an "equinox", derived from Latin, meaning "equal night". However, even if this is widely accepted, it isn't entirely true. In reality equinoxes don't have exactly 12 hours of daylight
At the equinoxes, the sun appears overhead at noon as seen from Earth’s equator.
That’s why the sun rises due east and sets due west for all of us. The sun is on the celestial equator, and the celestial equator intersects all of our horizons at points due east and due west.

The September equinox occurs the moment the Sun crosses the celestial equator – the imaginary line in the sky above the Earth’s equator – from north to south. This happens either on September 22, 23, or 24 every year...It varies from place to place...
Although the equinox happens at the same moment worldwide, the clock times vary by time zone.
For example: September Equinox in India is on
Tuesday, 23 September 2014, 07:59 IST.

World on 21st September 2014: 
The Hottest Place on 21st September 2014 was Sulaibiya in Kuwait and Ain Beida Airport in Algeria at 45c.
Highest Heat Index: 53.6c: Sirrri, Iran.

Maximum Pressure: 1082 mb  at Eagle Range, UT, U.S.
Minimum Pressure: 978 mb at Nuuk, Greenland.

Hottest in India: Hissar 37.7c.
Hottest in Pakistan was Sibbi at 41c.
Hottest in Nepal: Bhairawa Airport: 34.5c.

The Weather Report:
The SWM had withdrawn from Pakistan and now from West Rajasthan and Kutch. Gradually withdrawing from Punjab and Rajasthan by 23rd. 

The Low from the Bay has almost fizzled out and merged in the axis. The UAC remains over North Bengal and Sikkim.
Cooch Behar in Northern Bengal bordering Sikkim  got very heavy rains of 16 cms on Sunday 21st in 9 hrs till 5.30 pm IST.

A Line of Wind Discontinuity will form in the Southern Peninsula interior region by 23rd. A pulse from the Bay will form a Low in Interior Karnatak around the 23rd.
Rains increase in Interior Karnataka and Maharahtra.

The WD mentioned in Friday's post is on schedule to form around the 25th in Northern Pakistan. 

Mumbai: On and after Wednesday, the rain quantum will increase with thunder showers developing in the Outer Townships.

Saturday, September 20, 2014

The Weather Report:....Posted Sunday Night
The SWM had withdrawn from Pakistan and now from West Rajasthan and Kutch. Gradually withdrawing from Punjab and Rajasthan by 23rd. 

The Low from the Bay has almost fizzled out and merged in the axis. The UAC remains over North Bengal and Sikkim.
Cooch Behar in Northern Bengal bordering Sikkim  got very heavy rains of 16 cms on Sunday 21st in 9 hrs till 5.30 pm IST.

A Line of Wind Discontinuity will form in the Southern Peninsula interior region by 23rd. A pulse from the Bay will form a Low in Interior Karnatak around the 23rd.
Rains increase in Interior Karnataka and Maharahtra.

The WD mentioned in Friday's post is on schedule to form around the 25th in Northern Pakistan. 

Mumbai: On and after Wednesday, the rain quantum will increase with thunder showers developing in the Outer Townships.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted Saturday Night
Very Heavy rain likely in North Bengal and Sikkim on Sunday and Monday. 
Chances of Local flooding and downstream flooding from Sikkim.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Follow up Posted Friday Night:
Low remains off the Odisha coast..almost same strength at 1000 mb..expected to merge with the UAC in the same region...

The jet streams are now almost fully Westerly up to almost 25N...currently 100 hPa , has its core is along Lat. 13°N with wind speed higher than 60 knots. During the week, the highest wind speed of 75 kts was recorded over Thiruvananthpuram at 150 & 146 hPa on 16th September.

Today, we also see a trough in the Westerlies in the North Pakistan region. That is why I mentioned yesterday a speedy withdrawal in NW India expected soon.
The Low in the Bay remains off the Odisha coast.

I would not like to comment now, but unofficially can say the Myanmar anti cyclone at 500 hpa ( Necessary for NEM advance winds).can be expected around the 10th of October...it needs certain parameters to form over the Bay to get started.


A 1 hour rainfall recorded 31 mms from 9 pm IST at Vagaries on Friday Night..
x--------------------------------x---------------------------------x-----------------------------x
Posted Thursday Night ( 18th September):

South West Monsoon is in the withdrawal process, and has withdrawn from West Rajasthan. A ridge formation, an anticyclone in the 200 hpa level, and surface winds from the NW bringing a sharp reduction in humidity ensures speedy withdrawal from Rajasthan, Kutch, Punjab, HP and Kashmir by  Saturday 20th September. 

Delhi NCR would see gusty NW winds from Saturday through Sunday. Warming up the day and sliding the night temperatures to around 23/24c.

Weekend will see hot days with day temperatures peaking at 43/44c in the Sindh region of Pakistan.
Days get hotter in Rajasthan and Kutch.

Friday/Saturday and Sunday
Contrary to this, rainfall may increase in West Bengal, with heavy falls. Odisha and AP continue to get the regular thunder showers. Increasing rains in Central and South interior Peninsula.

Mumbai City get  a cloudy morning. clouds forming in the day. Shower expected by evening in parts of city.
Rains low till 23rd,after which we may see some increase.
Similarly with Pune, low rainfall this weekend, increasing to heavy thunder showers after 23rd.

Kolkata may get thunder showers in the afternoon/evening this weekend.
Hyderabad , may benefit from a low coming after the 22nd. Thunder showers on 22nd and 23rd.
Possible of a heavy thunder shower in Bangalore on Friday/Saturday.


Glance into Vagaries' Long Term Forecast (probable):

A Low forms off the AP coast around 23rd/24th September. Seeing the scenario today, it seems due to the anticyclone in the North (by then), this system may cross into AP/TN coast, and cross into Karnataka. 
Thunder showers increase in the States of Maharashtra and Karnataka from 24th.
A slight chance, that this system may re emerge in the Arabian Sea around the 27th. Thunder showers continue in Maharashtra in that case.

A "strong" WD can be expected (seeing the trough possible in the North) around 26th/27th. If things work out well, the trough, and WD rains, can dip South till Central Sindh.

What do we wait ansd see ? What do we study in this case ? We have to monitor if a) the WD "pushes off" the Arabian Sea Low, or b) the system "pushes of" the WD.
In case of b), the system can move towards Gujarat.
These are Long Term probables, and I do not have definite answers to the outcome 

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Posted Wednesday Night:

Ridge over Extreme West Rajasthan and adjoining Pak indicates Withdrawal of Monsoon over Pakistan and Extreme West Rajasthan

Low persists in bay off Odisha/AP coast

Rains to increase in Southern Interior peninsula on Friday and Saturday.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Low Pressure forms in Bay off Odisha Coast. Not expected to track much. But associated UACs tilting SW will form an Upper air trough next 2 days, along Odisha and AP coast....Posted Tuesday Night.

SWM Winds changing fast in Sindh..Within a day N/NW winds will bring an end to Monsoon in Sindh and West Rajasthan..Posted 16th September Evening.

See Mumbai Page...for Mumbai Outlook See Rohit's Page for Mumbai and Maharashtra Analysis

Vagaries of the Weather now on Twitter...Please follow @VagariesWeather


MONSOON REPORT (01-9-2014 TO 15-9-2014)
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 15-9-2014) 724 mm
SEASON +/- -11%
RAINFALL THIS FORTNIGHT (from 1-9-2014) 134.2 mm
TO ACHIEVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER          required per day------->    mm
MINIMUM                            700   mm ACHIEVED
AVERAGE                                890   mm 11.07
MAXIMUM                          1100   mm 25.07
CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY  6.77 mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL PER DAY THIS FORTNIGHT 8.95 mm
REQUIRED PER DAY TO ACHIEVE SEP AVERAGE (174 mm) 2.65 mm
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS FORTNIGHT    mm
KONKAN & GOA 374.5
JAMMU & KASHMIR 310.1
A & N ISLAND 266.6
GUJARAT REGION 264.8
COASTAL KARNATAKA 258.5
BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS FORTNIGHT     mm
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH 59.0
S. I. KARNATAKA 47.2
N. I. KARNATAKA 35.8
RAYALASEEMA 27.1
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERRY 26.0
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL (1-6-2014 to 15-9-2014)   
S. I. KARNATAKA 20%
JAMMU & KASHMIR 17%
ODISHA 12%
KERALA 9%
EAST RAJASTHAN 4%
BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL (1-6-2014 to 15-9-2014)
MARATHWADA -36%
EAST U.P. -40%
PUNJAB -47%
WEST U.P. -53%
HAR. CHD & DELHI -54%
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2014 to 15-9-2014)    36 (34%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2014 to 15-9-2014)    71 (66%)
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS IN SEPTEMBER SO FAR       9 (60%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS IN SEPTEMBER SO FAR      6 (40%)
source -IMD

Monday, September 15, 2014

Vagaries of the Weather now on Twitter...Please follow @VagariesWeather

Anticyclone indicates first indications of SWM Withdrwal Signs in Sindh.

Friday, September 12, 2014

Chicago was only 2 F degrees away from breaking a 124-year old record low this morning. Temps. dropped to a chilly 41F!

Rapid City only hit 39 F on Thursday, 39 F degrees below normal. Highs on Friday were a little warmer, 

As the skies clear..Rare September Fog in Punjab...pics sent by Arpit on Interactive Page

Record Heat Wave Predicted this Weekend in Southern California..see Below

Sub Continent Outlook for Weekend Saturday 13th and Sunday 14th:

Heavy rainfall likely in Eastern UP and adjoining Bihar and Jharkhand. Heavy rainfall also likely in adjoining plains regions of Nepal.
Rains spreading to West Bengal.
South from this rain region, rains likely in Odisha.

As an anti cyclone is developing in the NW regions of the sub continent, we may see a change in the winds pattern and direction. 
A bout of some scatterd rainfall is possible on Saturday in Central Sindh and Pak punjab.

The SWM may commence its withdrawal fron Sindh and Western Rajasthan around the 16th of this month. Punjab and Haryana withdrawal follows soon.
Day temperatures rise in Sindh from Monday 15th .

Mumbai: Partly cloudy and sunny spells. Warm day around 31c. Passing showers in different parts of city may add up to around 7- 10 mms/day.
Towering cumulus clouds develop by evening.

Pune: Saturday will be part ly cloudy and warm. Sunday may see towering cumulus clouds , with some showers in the outer regions.

New Delhi: Showers in parts of NCR developing on Saturday evening and night. Sunday would be cloudy and expect showers in different parts.

Kolkata: Would expect a slight increase in rains as thunder showers develop in Kolkata on Saturday evening. Sunday may also see some showers.

Bangalore may get a shower or thunder shower in some parts or vicinity on Saturday or Sunday.

Aurangabad: Partly cloudy and warm. Shower possible in some parts of ouetr regions like Phulambri, Khultabad or Verul. Thundery developments likely in the Eastern regions.

Record Heat Wave Predicted this Weekend in Southern California..


Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Referring to Vagaries' forecast for Friday...This Friday ( 12th) evening Sat image: Friday Rains in NE Madhya Pradesh and adjoining UP ..Pockets of heavy rain in Odisha also seen
Posted Wednesday 10th Night:


Mumbai: Several parts of city get heavy passing showers in the day. Mumbai can get around 20-25 mms on Thursday 11th. Rains frequency less on Friday.
Pune will be partly cloudy with very light rains in parts .

Delhi NCR: Thursday 11th and Friday 12th will be partly cloudy with the odd showers in the vicinity. Showers more prominent in many parts on Saturday 13th.

An trough runs from the SW coast of Gujarat through SE Rajasthan and then North-Eastwards.Due to the trough in the upper air, I see more rains in West UP and plains Utterakhand.
Plains of HP will get some pockets of showers on Thursday and Friday. Saturday will see only the local clouding.

As a result of the upper air trough, rains continue in SE and East Rajasthan through MP. Heavy North-East MP and adjoining West UP on Thursday and Friday. Decreasing on Friday.
Light rains in madhya Maharashtra, Interior Karnatak and Konkan.
Light showers along coastal AP and Odisha. Interior Odisha gets the odd heavy shower.
Some showers popping up in extreme North Pakistan. 

In Maharashtra, the night temperatures fell in some pockets. Osmanabad in Marathwada saw a low of 17.1c and Amraoti in Vidharbh 17.2c on Wednesday morning.




Wednesday Evening:..Delhi NCR experienced rains as forecasted in Sunday's Post...or at least many Parts of it...Reports of heavy rain in Gurgaon from Sahil and Meerut from Vineet. Yesterday too Arpit mentions of Rain..
Pics of Udaipur and Baroda on Interactive Page..

Tuesday, September 09, 2014


All India SWM Toppers from 01.06.2014 to 31.08.2014 (90 days into the monsoon)

The Mawsynaram still leads but Hulikal has closed the gap in September. Only one station has made it to the list from Kerala (Kuttiyadi) and Tamil Nadu (Chinnakallar).

in mm (min 4000 mm)
  1. Mawsynaram, Meghalaya - 7620
  2. Cherrapunji, Meghalaya - 6594
  3. Hulikal, Karnataka - 6453
  4. Agumbe, Karnataka - 6166
  5. Yadur, Karnataka - 6098
  6. Talacauvery, Karnataka - 6090
  7. Tamini, Maharashtra - 6070
  8. Mastikatte, Karnataka - 5972
  9. Nilkund, Karnataka - 5770
  10. Mani Dam, Karnataka - 5682
  11. Amboli, Maharashtra - 5418
  12. Kerekatte, Karnataka - 5398
  13. Mulshi, Maharashtra - 5355
  14. Cogar, Karnataka - 5343
  15. Kollur, Karnataka - 5329
  16. Suralbhi, Karnataka - 5191 (Till 13th August)
  17. Dawdi, Maharashtra - 5100
  18. Amgaon, Karnataka - 5062
  19. Kundal, Karnataka - 5042
  20. Bandal, Karnataka - 4852
  21. Hongadahalla, Karnataka - 4756
  22. Castle Rock, Karnataka - 4745
  23. Mahabaleshwar, Maharashtra - 4696
  24. Kitwade, Maharashtra - 4673
  25. Naladi, Karnataka - 4641 (Till 13th August)
  26. Hosakere,  Karnataka - 4600
  27. Aralagod, Karnataka - 4317 (Till 13th August)
  28. Kanakumbi, Karnataka - 4556 
  29. Gersoppa, Karnataka - 4546
  30. Kuttiyadi, Kerala - 4520
  31. Bhagamandala, Karnataka - 4450
  32. Gavali, Karnataka - 4387
  33. Dajipur, Maharashtra - 4363
  34. Gokarna, Karnataka - 4323
  35. Halageri, Karnataka - 4232
  36. Kigga, Karnataka - 4223
  37. Navaja, Maharashtra - 4220
  38. Koyna, Maharashtra - 4214
  39. Arendur, Karnataka - 4209
  40. Dungerwadi, Maharashtra - 4150
  41. Chinnakallar, Tamil Nadu - 4143
  42. Byakody, Karnataka - 4072
  43. Bhira, Maharashtra - 4007
  44. Ardi, Karnataka - 4000
  45. Kerveshe, Karnataka - 4000 

Karnataka Top 10 Rainfall from 01.06.2014 to 31.08.2014
  1. Hulikal - 6453
  2. Agumbe - 6166
  3. Yadur - 6098
  4. Talacauvery - 6090
  5. Mastikatte - 5972
  6. Nilkund - 5770
  7. Mani Dam - 5682
  8. Kerekatte - 5398
  9. Cogar - 5343
  10. Kollur - 5329 
 Maharashtra Top 10 Rainfall from 01.06.2014 to 31.08.2014
  1. Tamini - 6070
  2. Amboli - 5418
  3. Mulshi - 5355
  4. Dawdi - 5100
  5. Mahabaleshwar - 4696
  6. Kitwade - 4673
  7. Dajipur - 4363
  8. Navaja - 4220
  9. Koyna - 4214
  10. Dungerwadi - 4150
 Kerala Top 10 Rainfall from 01.06.2014 to 31.08.2014
  1. Kuttiyadi - 4520
  2. Pambla  - 3370
  3. Vadakara - 3080
  4. Vythri - 3000
  5. Irukkur - 2950
  6. Piravom - 2750
  7. Idukki, Idukki - 2680
  8. Neeriyamangalam - 2670
  9. Cheruthazam, Kannur - 2600
  10. Taliparamba, Kannur - 2550
 Goa Top 10 Rainfall from 01.06.2014 to 31.08.2014
  1. Valpoi - 3528
  2. Sanguem - 3468
  3. Margao  - 3127
  4. Canacona - 2933
  5. Sanquelim - 2738
  6. Ponda  - 2727
  7. Quepem - 2597
  8. Pernem - 2510
  9. Ela - 2350
  10. Mapusa - 2304

Sunday, September 07, 2014

Cool Days in Maharashtra on Monday 8th September:

Maximum Day Temperatures on Monday: Buldana 22.5c, Nasik 22.6c, Washim and Yeotmal 23.0c, Aurangabad 23.6c, Malegaon 24.0c, Amraoti 24.4c, Nanded 24.5c.

Posted Sunday 7th, Night:

1. Another UAC forms in the North Bay off Odisha Coast around 10th September...
2. Another UAC, or, the Western end of the existing UAC trough, forms around Okha/Dwarka in Western Saurahtra on 11th September...Will see the effect of this UAC in SE Sindh...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Mumbai: Monday will be cloudy with showers increasing by night. Day will see showers amounting to around 20 mms. But Tuesday the rains increase to almost intermittent showers. Heavy showers in the day. Amount gauged will be around 75 mms. Rains intensity decreases to fewer showers on Wednesday. But cloudy on Wednesday with around 20 mms.
Heavier and more rains for Northern Outer townships on Tuesday.
Pune: Heavy showers from Monday night through Tuesday..maybe around 50-60 mms.

Delhi NCR: Light thunder shower likely in some parts on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Surat: Monday will be cloudy with showers amounting to around 15-20 mms. But increase in rains from Tuesday night, very heavy rainfall, and by Wednesday morning Surat can get around 60-70 mms.
Bharuch and Baroda will see thunder showers from Monday Night through Wednesday.

Karachi: Waiting till Thursday to see if Karachi gets some light rains from the UAC which may form.
Do we see absolute rain break in Islamabad ? Possible with day temperature showing a rise to 35/36c again.

See Kashmir Rains Records Below (from PJ)..and vagaries rainman 

Saturday, September 06, 2014






Jammu and Kashmir September 2014 Historic Rains
Place / Date 4th 5th 6th 7th Total
Katra 67 280 210 210 767
Kawa 64 152 260 136 612
Udhampur 493
Banihal 107 189 86 54 436
Jammu 40 101 218 77 436
Batote 102 210 120 432
Govindapura 71 202 102 27 402
Chatha 43 94 228 365
Rajpura Mandi 161 138 55 6 360
Khudwani 92 136 76 48 352
Shopian 68 140 85 54 347
Khulgam 82 138 77 48 345
Baderwah 81 140 100 321
Gulmarg 110 128 40 278
Malangapura 61 102 66 45 274
Kukernag 119 149 268
Phalgam 68 54 50 31 203
Anatnag 180 180
Baramullah 65 84 28 177
Bakore 166 166
Quazigund  157 157
Srinagar 52 49 23 23 147
Bandipora 50 72 22 144
Rambagh 51 52 18 19 140
Kupwara 46 70 10 126
Shalimar 53 53
Konibal 52 52
Awantipur 51 51
Samba  50 50
Rajouri 40 40

More Details on Kashmir Deluge in Vagaries Rainman 

SWM 2014 thus far. An brief Review....6th September

From a threatening -47% down to -12% today. The country has received 655 mms against a normal of 765 mms till date. Thats the overall All India Monsoon Position. Thanks to massive rains in Jammu Kashmir and Punjab last few days, the overall deficit has come to almost reasonable and "civilised" levels.In fact, a few more % points reduction and the dubious label of "drought" will be wiped out. IMD considers a drought year if the deficit falls below -10%. Seems likely to be covered this year.
India normally receives 890 mms in the 4 months of SWM season as a long term average.
Situation is far better than the worst year 2009. That year, the deficit at the end of the season was -23%.
But, still there are a few areas of concern. Punjab, UP and Marathwada amongst them. I would put it like this: the situation in these few regions is still far from being "drought free".Marathwada may see very good rains next few days from BB-8.
However, thinking positively, the late surge of rains in Punjab and Rajasthan and NW India, will benefit the rabi season immensely. It will be saturating the soil with sufficient soil moisture.

But, the water position may not be as comfortable. The overall water reservoir stocks is below normal,except in Central India. North ndia, which has seen the maximum shortage of adequate rainfall, sees the stock of reservoirs at 79% ( 93% last year) of full capacity. Eastern India stocks show 68% (75% last year) of full capacity. Western India 70% (76%) of capacity and South India 68% (81% last year. Central India is the lone zone seeing better than last year levels at 74% (58% last year).
The Overall country average is 71% ( 87%) of capacity against full level.

See Mumbai Page for Mumbai Monsoon Review and next few days forecast for Mumbai
BB-8, centred over Coastal Odisha Saturday evening, will deepen and track West initially on Sunday and Monday. Precipitation over Odisha , Chattisgarh and then into Vidharbh and Madhya Maharastra on Sunday/Monday.

Vagaries SWM Contest 2014

Congrats Puneet for taking the lead. Abhijeet and Chaudhary are very close at 2nd spot.

For the Month of August Rohit has topped the points.

Please check your points, in case of any corrections please msg to my FB message box.

The finale is there. Please participate and win your deserving certificates from Vagaries for the season ending Contest. Post your entries in the below link

Vagaries Season Ending contest 2014