Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Below normal night temperatures have ruled over Maharshtra for the last 5/6 days. Lows of 7 c were recorded in Nashik and Pune going down to 8 c in the last 2 days. Mumbai, Santa Cruz, was down to 14 c yesterday. Now most of these were 5-7 c below normal, hence classifying into cold wave conditions.

I have not written for a few days, but, one can say I was waiting for the forecasted W.D. It is expected to reach the northern parts of Pakistan/India by the 28th. as estimated in my last blog. As a result, the night temperatures will show a tendency to rise, by about 2/3 c in the northern plains.

But, winter will be establishing a firm grip over the area. Another W.D. is to reach the mountains of Pakistan and India by the 1st., and hence, the hills region will get its first subsatantial rain/snow of the winter in the first week of Dec. This is conformed as another W.D. may follow up in the next 2 days in the first week of Dec .

The result of this will be a sharp fall in the temperatures over much of extereme northern regions of the sub continent, and a fall in the night temperatures, or cold wave conditions , over the plains and central parts of India. All this during the first week of December.

South India can expect very little rain in isolated regions. Maybe after the second W.D. moves away, an easterly wave, the result of the tropical storm in the China Sea, may bring some more rain around the 7/8 th, in Tamil Nadu and south Kerala.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Continuing from my blog of the 16th, the anticipated 1/2 days rain from the easterly wave has now receded, and not much expected for the next 8 days. As discussed before, the "La Nina" phenomena, has had its effect on the N.E. Monsoon, as we see a reduced amount of rain this season.

Also, the night temperatures have started to drop in the Northern regions of India and Pakistan, the central areas of India, and Maharashtra state. Srinager is now at -3 c, Amritsar at 5.8 c, Delhi records 10 c, and as predicted, Mumbai went down to 17 c, and in Pakistan Islamabad went down to 5 c, and Skardu in Kashmir to -7 c. The IMD minimium map shows a large area of India in the "below normal" shade.

The next 8 days (maybe till the end of the month), will not see any major precipitation either in northern areas of the sub continent , nor the south.Furhter west too, the middle east will be dry till the 27th. . A W.D. may be expected around the 28/29th. This may bring rain/snow to northern Pakistan, NorthIndian states of Kashmir, H.P. and Uttranchal. The northern states and Delhi may see a little fall in night and day temperatures arounfd the middle of this week. A fall in night temperatures could also be expected in the interiors of the southern states.

Two "tropical Depressions" have formed. One near the Phillipines, and the other east of Vietnam. Though not entirely out of season, the one near Vietnam will have to be observed for its further effects, if any , on the Bay side.

For your views: kapadias@gmail.com



Friday, November 16, 2007

Sidr crossed the Bangladesh coast, and hurriedly rushed inland into the N.E. States of India. Now, a depression, it seems to be fading away fast. This is due to the strong STR, (the northerlies mentioned in my prevoius blogs), pushing it away.

Also, this means, the seasonal weather over the sub continent is taking a firm grip over the region. No W.D. in sight, for the next week at least. This means , markedly colder weather in the northern areas of Pakistan and India, the central regions of the sub continent, and also cooler temperatures in the western states of India (including Mumbai, which will see a minimum of 18 c, next week).

An easterly wave approaching the Tamil Nadu coast, is likely to bring some substantial rainfall, especially to the coastal regions, on Monday. But it is not expected to last for more than a day, nor penetrate too much inland.

Thursday, November 15, 2007

SIDR : A powerfull Storm.

Sidr by now is a powerful Category 4 storm with 130 Kts winds, and is still a severe, highly dangerous storm. The JTWC have updated their earlier advisory giving the 1200 hrs, GMT, status for this Category 4 hurricane, and is moving towards down on the densely populated coasts of Western Bangladesh and Eastern shores of W.Bengal. Landfall is expected along the low-lying stretch of coast just east of Kolkata, in the next 24 hrs.. Sidr ( Arabic word for the the jujube tree, named by Oman) is only the second major (Category 3 or higher) tropical cyclone to affect the Bay of Bengal this decade.

Sidr has taken advantage of the high heat content Bay waters, and has intensified. As the storm continues northwards over the next 24 hours,it should be able to maintain its intensity. However, in the 12 hours prior to landfall, there will be a sharp increase in wind shear, and the Bay waters heat content will be a little lower as well, and the hope is that Sidr will be a Category 1 or 2 cyclone when it hits land.

But, even then,a Category 1 or 2 cyclone hitting the low-lying, densely populated coasts of W.Bengal/ Bangladesh could still be damaging. It is hoped that the local authorities have taken the due precautions and low lying areas evacuated.

The impact estimate and intensity is well shown at http://hurricane.methaz.org

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

SIDR has progressed fast, and has developed into a "severe cyclonic" storm, as per the latest IMD bulletin. The JTWC image shows the "eye" clearly. This indicates the cyclone has a core with hurricane winds, which means gusts of 100 kmph !

Several models have changed the forecasted direction of the storm. The general indication is now of movement towards the Orissa coast by Friday/Saturday. But, it may steer more northwards, and go towards W.Bengal, due to the STR. Its centre is now at 11.6N and 91.0 E.

Movements to be closely followed.

Thank you Ashokbhai for your very useful, and correct information to the readers. Readers have found it very informative.

kapadias@gmail.com


Monday, November 12, 2007

A short posting on the development of the strong system in the Bay. The IMD has positioned the "deep Depression" at 10.5N and 91.5 E at 05.30 hrs today. The JTWC has positioned it as "no name " cyclone 06B at the same position.

According to JTWC, the sub tropical ridge will steer the movement towards the North-West. COLA also forecasts a similar movement direction. So, I feel, looking at the various forecasts, and the actual facts, the STR , along with the fairly strong Northerly winds in the upper half of the Indian Sub continent, the system will grow into a named cyclone, and cross the Indian coast, along the Orissa/W.Bengal coast, maybe around Friday.

Please give your views on this development on this blog for all the readers to share and, or at
kapadais@gmail.com


Thursday, November 08, 2007

Much of Pakistan and India have reverted back to temperatures higher than what could be expected at this time of the year, after showing initial signs of cooling, specially over the northern areas of the sub-continent. Even the traditionally cooler regions of the hilly areas are reporting above normal temperatures. Labella in Pakistan have registerd high of 39.5c, and the overall day is very much warmer than it should be over much of India, as is evident from this departure map.
Even the night temperature departure map shows unusually warm colours over much of the region.
This could be due to the total absence of direct cool north breeze for the regions of northern and central India (IMD map). Maharashtra and Gujarat are warm and stuffy due to the incursion of moisture during the last week, which has even resulted in isolated rain in a few pockets.(Panjim had a heavy downpour yesterday with 67 mm of rain, and Mahableshwar 15 mm). Dry air from the north, should change the murky condtions of these 2 states, for the better, maybe by next week.
For the south, as was expected, the "break in monsoon" will end soon, with the predicted low springing up in the bay by tomorrow. The IMD predicts this low to become a depression, which can be transalted into heavy rains resuming for the southern states.

kapadias@gmail.com

Sunday, November 04, 2007


The N.E. Monsoon seems to have run out of steam, as anticipated. But the projected low, to boost it again, seems to have appeared "over the horizon'' as can be seen from the IMD streamline map. The low pressure area over the South East of the Bay is the projected "pulse" from the China Sea which has crossed over. The blow up of rain over the Tamil Nadu and A.P. coast later this week, due to the appraoching low is shown in this Cola forecast.

Meanwhile, no W.D. is in sight for the next 8/10 days, hence, the southern states should get some "undisturbed" rain from 9th. onwards till the 15th. of Nov.

But the current wind pattern is quite complex, as on today, and seen in the the IMD streamline. This has resulted in marginally above average day temperatures all over India, with a "tongue " of higher temperatures around the East-central and North-east region.

Thursday, November 01, 2007

The remnant pulse of the system which had crossed the east coast, has now spread its clouding as far north as Maharashtra. North Maharashtra had some rain today due to this, with Mumbai getting light rain with thunder, though this rain was anticipated in my blog around the 28th. /29th.
The vertical wind vortex (Low pulse) is now over South Maharashtra. It is expected that this will be over Goa tomorrow(Friday), before vanishing. Hence some more rain over Goa and South Konkan on Friday. Mumbai may get light rain for one more day on Friday too.

"No rain "period should continue in the southern states till 7th./8th., as no formations are seen till then. The remnant from the system which crossed Vietnam yesterday, should form the new low by the 7th./8th.

In Pakistan, the night temperatures have started falling from the last 2 days. Islamabad had 8 c and Skardu in Kashmir -4 c. Places in Sindh have recorded night temperatures between 11 c- 13c.
Hence, one can expect, in the current week, that temperatures in Punjab (India), Haryana and Delhi can go down to 12c. Srinagar should record its first below zero minimum this week.Simla can expect around 4-5c, and Manali 2-3c this week.