See Mumbai Page for September Details.
See Mumbai Page for September Details.
See Mumbai Page for local weather inference.
Lowest In India for Sunday was -3c at Darbuk (Ladakh), while Leh minimum was at 5.8c. Gulmarg was 5c Sunday morning.
Observed some thunder cells on Sunday in the NW and East on Sunday. But approach over the city was avoided, as was the case in Panvel (Junaid's report).
But Matheran received 5 cms.and Bhivand (extreme east of Mumbai) measured 5 mms.
Thunder cells are a natural occurance at this time (as explained in Mumbai note). They form as the SWM retreats, and convection occurs. The sea breeze continues till interuppted by a thunder squall. The cb clouds are not yet "dominating", and are not able to form the local downwards squally gusty winds usually associated with a rain bearing powerfull cell.
Monday/Tuesday: Temperature range: 32c - 25c.
Pune Forecast for Monday/Tuesday: Temperature range: 30c - 20c. Cloudy day, with thundershowers towards afternoon evening.
Brief Note on Mumbai Weather..Some Deviation Observed.. See Mumbai Page
No Video clip has been put up along with this post. Seems to be a glitch. There is a write up only. Got some comments on this.
Posted on 23rd September @ 12 noon:Re-Posted here due to technical problem on Mumbai Page..
This week, Mumbai weather has seen a deviation from the routine. A routine that should be adhered to, in the current situation. But, who follows the law and sticks to a schedule in Mumbai ? And if we cannot, we should least expect the "Mausam" to do so !
Normally, once the SWM withdrawal commences from the extreme West Rajastan region, and the retreat line moves Southwards/Eastwards, the normal tendency of the weather over Maharashtra region should be to see the formation of thundercells, quite spread out over the interiors and Konkan regions.
Mumbai would see huge thunder clouds forming over the eastern skies, over Panvel and Matheren region, and drift over the city by the evening.
This sequence is a natural course of event, and occurs as the anticyclone forming in the NW pushes downwards, and convective thermals rise in the heat developed to form thunder clouds.
Hence the 5 days forecast put up for Mumbai and Maharashtra for this week was on this calculation.
But, something different, and "not the routine" has occured. The ridge in the north-west, has extended down South. IMD's sea level chart shows the high pressure ridge extending right into central Maharashtra.
Absolute excuse for thunder clouds to dissappear ! Good reason for the skies to clear, and cool the nights ! Pune down to 18c (-2c), and Mumbai feeling a nip at 22c.
Nothing to do with BB-8, the depression, if it can be so called. Its a weak system, with 89 mms of rain at Ranchi and 48 mms at Jamshedpur.
With the retreating line "closing in" and approaching maharashtra fast, are we in Mumbai going to miss out on the cracker farewell ? And the farewell for Mumbai is surely scheduled for end September,
May not miss out totally. By the end of this week, cloudiness will return, and temporarily wipe out the nip. We should get a few thunderstorms thru next week.
According to the latest 5.30 pm (Thursday) report of IMD, BB-8 is now a depression, and is situated just off Balasore (Orissa) coast. IMD announces possibility of system crossing the Orissa coast on Thursday night.
RE-ENTRY ALERT…see Space News Page
Was just working out some details, for Max (Thailand) and for my records. Thought I would share it on Vagaries:
1.Highest 24 hrs rainfall for September at Palam Airport till now is 190 mms in 1963.
2. Cherrapunji is going thru a bad monsoon phase. Rainfall from 1st June - 16 th September there is 5624 mms, that is 2111 mms less than what it should be ! Howevr, the rainfall from 1st Jan 2011 till date there is 7880 mms, and the required annual normal is 11070 mms.
3. Bharuch has had 1123 mms till today this season.While Ankleshwar has managed 697 mms.
The heaviest 24 hr fall in Bharuch was on 5th August 1976, when 460 mms fell in 1 day, and for September the heaviest fall in a day was on 6th Sept 1954 when 305 mms fell.
4. Surat's heaviest 24 hr rain ever was 459 mms in 1941 on 2nd July.
NT, the decreasing "monsoonish" atmosphere mentioned in Vagaries will continue.
Mumbai received 16 mms rain average between the 2 stations, S'Cruz and Colaba on Friday. Vagaries estimate was 15 mms.
Saturday/Sunday/Monday: Partly cloudy day and sunny spells. Thundershower later in the day. Heavy spells in some areas of the city. Light drizzling rain preceding the thundershower. Daily Rain amounts 20-25 mms.
(Only for those interested: Kaas photo album put up on Vagaries Links section).
NOAA has changed its outlook for a La Nina from "watch" to "advisory", basically going from it might happen to they’re quite sure it will.
Right now, temperatures in the Pacific are where they are supposed to be, or what NOAA calls neutral. But, SST anomalies across the tropical
have cooled during August, when compared to those for July. First 10 days of september are maintaining the trend, though weakly. This has increased the chance of La Niña returning during the last quarter of 2011.
Current ENSO indicators are approaching values typically associated with La Niña events. NOAA scientists don’t think temperatures will stay there much after the last quarter of 2011. After that, temperatures in the Pacific should drop below normal again, kicking off what forecasters say could be another La Nina.
However, some models predict only modest cooling resulting in a borderline-La Niña event, but others predict stronger cooling. Vagaries presumes there is an expectation that the trend towards La Niña will continue, and if a La Niña does form, it will be weaker than the strong 2010-11 event.
The official monthly SOI for August was +2.1.During September, the SOI, has increased marginally. Further cooling of the central
coupled with persistent positive SOI values in the next few months would further increase the chance of a La Niña event at the end of 2011.
has precipitated heavy rains in Orissa, with Balasore receiving 123 mms in 9 hrs on Wednesday. Kolkata too had good rains today with Alipore measuring 33 mms in the day.
received had a severe thunderstorm today, and received 75 mms of rain in a short spell of time in the afternoon.
An upper air W.D. is likely to cause medium scale precipitation and snow in the higher reaches of H.P. and
areas will also benefit from this system.
Mumbai had a warmer day on Tuesday, with the high reaching 30.7c at Colaba and 31.7c at S'Cruz. A couple of showers wetted the city in the evening. S'Cruz has recorded 8 mms till 11 pm while it was 2 mms at Colaba. Dadar got 10 mms in the same period.
Wednesday/Thursday: Partly cloudy with intervals of sunny spells. A couple of showers, passing types, but day temperature will be at 30/31c. Rain amount 10-15 mms.
Rainfall could increase from Thursday night, but shall confirm that later.
Decreasing rains with brighter weather in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, before parting thundershowers start.
Mumbai recieved the heavy showers forecasted for Sunday. Colaba received 40 mms and S'Cruz 35 mms on Sunday (average 37 mms). Vagaries' estimate for Sunday was 30-35 mms.
Monsoonish atmosphere decreasing gradually.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Intervals of sun and clouds. 3/4 passing showers. Rain amount 15 mms.Day will be warmer than Monday with a high of 30/31c (28/29 on Monday).
Thursday/Friday: Partly cloudy with a few passing showers. A heavy shower towards evening possible. Rain amount 15-20 mms.
Note on ENSO on Wednesday.
Friday: Partly cloudy, with sunny spells. A few passing type showers. Rain amount upto 10 mms.
Saturday: More clouding, with passing showers, a few heavy. Rainfall frequency increasing slightly from night. Rain amount 20-25 mms.
Sunday: Cloudy with intermittent showers. A Heavy shower possible in evening with thunder. Rain amounts 30-35 mms.
: Chances of Thundershower on Saturday evening. Sunday cloudy with thundershower in the evening.
Mumbai saw some showers from Tuesday evening onwards. Vagaries had predicted 20 mms, for Tuesday, while between Colaba and S'Cruz 13 mms were recieved. As per MCGM , in the 24 hrs eneded Wednesday morning, Deonar got 55 mms and Dadar received 28 mms.
Wednesday forecast will be valid as put up on Monday's blog.
We see rainfall intensity increasing from Friday due to BB-6 approaching central
A SINCERE THANK YOU...
On Monday, Mumbai had a partly cloudy day, with sunny intervals and a few passing showers. Sunday had seen 19 mms and 13 mms at Colaba and S'Cruz resp. But Monday measured only 2 mms and 3 mms respectively.
Tuesday: As explained above in the article, with the winds increasing speed on Tuesday along the N.Konkan coast, we may see more showers on Tuesday as compared to Monday. Frequency of rain will be more (don’t expect too much) from late afternoon, and some showers tending to get heavy and with gusty winds. Thunder possible with some showers. Rain amount 20 mms.
Wednesday: A let up in the winds. And so a marginal decrease in the rainfall. A few showers on Wednesday. Rain amount 10-15 mms.
Pune had a cloudy day, with the high at 27c. Light rain in the day measured 0.5 mms.
Tuesday/Wednesday: cloudy day, with light drizzles in some parts. Thunderclouds developing by evening, when a shower is possible in some parts.
Mars Express Delivers Views Of
All India SWM toppers from 01.06.2011 to 03.09.2011 (95 days). Rainfall in mm's (Min 3500 mm). Specially and meticulously prepared and sent to Vagaries by Pradeep John.
Kollur (Karnataka) - 6688
Agumbe (Karnataka) - 6659
Gaganbawada (Maharashtra) - 6074
Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) - 6036
Mahabaleshwar (Maharashtra) - 5541
Mulshi (Maharashtra) - 5516
Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 5216
Bhira (Maharashtra) - 5022
Radhanagri (Maharashtra) - 4900
Kadra (Karnataka) - 4766
Siddapura (Karnataka) - 4729
Gerosoppa (Karnataka) - 4718
Koyna (Maharashtra) - 4669
Lonavala (Maharashtra) - 4533
Gorkhana (Karnataka) - 4481
Tillari (Maharashtra) - 4425
Valpoi (Goa) - 4353
Chinna Kallar (Tamil Nadu) - 4334
Rajapur (Maharashtra) - 4287
Tulshi Lake (Maharashtra) - 4236
Ratnagiri (Maharashtra) - 4192
Mhasla (Maharashtra) - 4165
Bhagamandala (Karnataka) - 4139
Kankavli (Maharashtra) - 4124
Mandangad (Maharashtra) - 4110
Lanja (Maharashtra) - 4044
Karkala (Karnataka) - 3957
Quepem (Goa) - 3845
Bhatkal (Karnataka) - 3831
Vadakara (Kerala) - 3804
Sawantwadi (Maharashtra) - 3790
Honavar (Karnataka) - 3789
Chiplun (Maharashtra) - 3759
Walwand (Maharashtra) - 3732
Malvan (Maharashtra) - 3710
Sanguem (Goa) - 3689
Matheran (Maharashtra) - 3617
Kottigehara (Karnataka) - 3604
Bhatkal (Karnataka) - 3595
Udupi (Karnataka) - 3548
Poladur (Maharashtra) - 3540
Jawhar (Maharashtra) - 3515
Pawna (Maharashtra) - 3508
Ponda (Goa) - 3500
Canacona (Goa) - 3500
Sringeri (Karnataka) - 3500
Places such as Tamini, Hulikal, Nilkund, Mawsynarm, Amboli, Poochippara, Walakkad and Castle Rock would have also made above 3500 mm list.
Kollur in Karnataka is still managing to hang on with the number uno position. Agumbe and Kollur rainfall are so close and heavy, leaving all other way behind by around 600 mm. Out of the 95 monsoon days so far, Agumbe and Kollur have had 93 rainy days, while Mahabaleshwar comes second with 92 days of rainfall. The September rains are awesome, both these stations are moving towards 7000 mm mark. Exciting times ahead.The World topper and the legend Cherrapunji is indeed having a bad year. Its way down on 7th with 5216 mm rainfall, It should have got around 7200 mm rainfall by now.
From Kerala and Tamil Nadu there are one station representing each state. Tamil Nadu have Chinna Kallar (4334 mm) and Kerala have Vadakara (3804 mm)
HAPPY DIWALI .. Vagaries exclusive .. Festive weather series.. Part 3. . Past 20 years Diwali days (Narak Chaturdashi / Lakshmi Poojan...