The UAC over east Arabian Sea persisits, and is at the same height, without descending further.

SWM has withdrawn from M.P. and U.P. Remaining regions in the East and South of Maharashtra still have the Monsoon conditons prevailing, but as a feeble current.

SWM can retreat from North Mah. and North Konkan within the next 3 days.

Today's (Friday)daytime rainfall was heavy at Dharamsala which saw 88 mms. Sainj also in H.P. measured 27 mms. Interior Karnataka had some showers on Friday. Devihosur received 27 mms while Belgaum saw 18 mms. Neveli had 2 mms.

In Maharashtra (late Friday evening) it was: Bhira 28 mms, Kolhapur 24 mms, Aurangabad 12 mms, Karjat 2 mms.

Hottest in India on Friday: Machillipatnam 38c, and in Pakistan Dal bandin 38c.

See Mumbai Page for September Details.

ALL India Forecast estimate for October, post Monsoon scenario and NEM estimate will be published on Vagaries tomorrow (Saturday) night.

Maharashtra Bulletin:

In a surprise development, a UAC has formed over east central Arabian Sea & adjoining Maharashtra coast and now extends between 1.5 & 3.6 kms a.s.l.

But, seeing the sea level conditions, it is not expected to descend or strengthen further.

Thundershowers popped up on Thursday in the Western Maharashtra region. Pune again had a thunderstorm with 37 mms, and nearby Pashan measured 51 mms. Suburban Chinchwad however had only 3 mms. The weather in the region cooled down with the rains. Pashan thermometer read 21.6c at 7 pm today, and Pune was 22c at 7 pm.

Down South, Satara had rain with thunder, to the order of 2 mms. Mahableshwar had rains with thunder at 8.30 pm Thursday, recording 10 mms.

Ahmednagar too received light showers in the night amounting to 3 mms.

Doppler shows heavy clouding to the East of Mumbai at 9.30 pm Thursday.

South West Monsoon is retreating Southwards. Parameters like OLR and UTH observed from IMD images indicate the SWM to have vacated regions above 25N. And approaching fast towards Maharashtra.

For Maharashtra and Mumbai, the only positve factor favouring "last farewell" rains is the "Maximum Lifted Condensation Level". Still favourable at 1000-1500.

A thunderstorm lashed Pune in the evening on Wednesday. Rainfall recorded was 22 mms.Shivaji nagar (Pune) measured 33 mms till evening. Unconfirmed reports of thunder rain at Lonavala.

SWM should be withdrawing from below the 20N line by October 1st week.

Would expect NEM to set in around 15th October. One thing is for sure, next system coming from South Bay will be from the NEM "family".

The other parameters are slipping ! The anti monsoon, withdrawal parameters are moving Southwards. Today,Tuesday, on observing the OLR map, we find the "browns" creeping towards Maharashtra, and the UTH also shows a reduced humidity (blue)ribbon sweeping across Mah. and totally covering the areas north of the state. 200 mb jet streams are westerly above the 25N line.

According to vagaries, SWM is done with (in addition to regions given previously) from North Gujarat, Rajasthan, North and Central M.P, and East U.P.

Next would be all of Gujarat, North Mah, Utterakhand, rest U.P, and M.P. Besides, Eastern and Central Nepal would see withdrawal in the next 2 days.

And the ridge ? Has it moved away northwards again? On the contrary ! A high pressure area has established itself right over the state of Mah. at sea level. Even at 850 mb, it is seen over the Western Mah.region. So,a high pressure is seen from sea level (1012 mb) to the upper atmosphere over western India.

It seems, that the withdrawal signs and criterea are "catching up" fast on Maharashtra.

Too fast for a last shower in Mumbai ??

Can the hills of Matheran, Mahableshwar and Lonavala still see a farewell thundershower ? Yes, its possible.

One can never say with the weather !

BB-8 anger on Nepal ! Several serious accidents and mishaps have been reported from Nepal since Sunday 25th, and Monday 26th. Incessant heavy rains have caused mud-slides and broken the Kathmandu city record. The capital received 90 mms of rain on Monday, which is the highest 24 hr total for September. The monthly total has also crossed the average. The day was chilly in Kathmandu, with the high bearly managing 18c, and the low was at 17.5c. Okhaldhunga received 97 mms.

Neeraj, would welcome some pics for our readers.

As per the caution put up on Vagaries, the rains will not last beyond 24 hrs. This could well be the final farewell from the SWM for Nepal.Shall keep you posted on the withdrawal.

The conditions of retreat all fulfilled, IMD has withdrawn the SWM from the regions slated for withdrawal (mentioned) in Vagaries yesterday.

See Mumbai Page for local weather inference.

BB-8 is around the Bihar region, but weaker at 1002 mb. Precipitating rainfall in the region and keeping the monsoon active there. Kolkata continues to receive good rains. Rains already pushing into Nepal (central) region.

Important to keep an eye on "Haitang" (996 mb) and "Nisat" (880 hpa).

Getting Hotter, Getting Colder !

Hottest in the sub-continent was Dalbandin and Sibbi (Pakistan) at 38c, though Karachi is still ok at 32c.

In India it was 37c at Machilipatnam.

AlAhsa (Saudi Arabia) was hottest in Asia at 44c, while Sharjah is still hot at 43c.

Lowest In India for Sunday was -3c at Darbuk (Ladakh), while Leh minimum was at 5.8c. Gulmarg was 5c Sunday morning.

Putting up this OLR map to make it easier to chalk out SWM withdrawal region.The Brown and Yellow regions could be construed (criterea for today,and not as a rule) as Monsoon free.

The OLR is getting un-favourable, the upper air humidity is decreasing and the jet stream re-organising itself with the changing season.The SWM retreat line is likely to cover Gujarat and more of M.P, Kashmir and H.P. in the next 2 days.

The withdrawal is fast approaching Maharashtra, and as a last minute haste, thunder clouds and showers were experianced in the interiors on Saturday and Sunday, though scanty and heavy in a few pockets only.

Mumbai:

Observed some thunder cells on Sunday in the NW and East on Sunday. But approach over the city was avoided, as was the case in Panvel (Junaid's report).

But Matheran received 5 cms.and Bhivand (extreme east of Mumbai) measured 5 mms.

Thunder cells are a natural occurance at this time (as explained in Mumbai note). They form as the SWM retreats, and convection occurs. The sea breeze continues till interuppted by a thunder squall. The cb clouds are not yet "dominating", and are not able to form the local downwards squally gusty winds usually associated with a rain bearing powerfull cell.

Mumbai Forecast:

Monday/Tuesday: Temperature range: 32c - 25c.

Cloudy morning, with light precipitation in scattered parts of the city.

A short spell of clear mid-day, with thunder cells developing.

By afternoon, thunder clouds could come over from the east, and precipitate in some areas. Could be accompanied by a squall.

Seeing the current SWM withdrawal progress, I would stick to the earlier given date for Mumbai: Withdrawal by September end.

Pune Forecast for Monday/Tuesday: Temperature range: 30c - 20c. Cloudy day, with thundershowers towards afternoon evening.

Vagaries further withdraws SWM from Rajasthan, Haryana, Western Gujarat and North M.P.Day temperatures rise in non-monsoon areas. Highest in Pakistan at  41c, and Ganganagar (Rajasthan) reaches 36c.
Night temperatures expected to fall to around 20c in this region. Delhi to reach 20c next 2 days.

BB-8 rushes into the Himalayas. Expected to break into the hills, causing heavy rains in plains of U.P. and possible landslides in Central Nepal hills. Kathmandu could receive some showers for a day.
 

Brief Note on Mumbai Weather..Some Deviation Observed.. See Mumbai Page

No Video clip has been put up along with this post. Seems to be a glitch. There is a write up only. Got some comments on this.

Posted on 23rd September @ 12 noon:Re-Posted here due to technical problem on Mumbai Page..

This week, Mumbai weather has seen a deviation from the routine. A routine that should be adhered to, in the current situation. But, who follows the law and sticks to a schedule in Mumbai ? And if we cannot, we should least expect the "Mausam" to do so !

Brief Explanation:

Normally, once the SWM withdrawal commences from the extreme West Rajastan region, and the retreat line moves Southwards/Eastwards, the normal tendency of the weather over Maharashtra region should be to see the formation of thundercells, quite spread out over the interiors and Konkan regions.

Mumbai would see huge thunder clouds forming over the eastern skies, over Panvel and Matheren region, and drift over the city by the evening.

This sequence is a natural course of event, and occurs as the anticyclone forming in the NW pushes downwards, and convective thermals rise in the heat developed to form thunder clouds.

Hence the 5 days forecast put up for Mumbai and Maharashtra for this week was on this calculation.

But, something different, and "not the routine" has occured. The ridge in the north-west, has extended down South. IMD's sea level chart shows the high pressure ridge extending right into central Maharashtra.

Absolute excuse for thunder clouds to dissappear ! Good reason for the skies to clear, and cool the nights ! Pune down to 18c (-2c), and Mumbai feeling a nip at 22c.

Nothing to do with BB-8, the depression, if it can be so called. Its a weak system, with 89 mms of rain at Ranchi and 48 mms at Jamshedpur.

With the retreating line "closing in" and approaching maharashtra fast, are we in Mumbai going to miss out on the cracker farewell ? And the farewell for Mumbai is surely scheduled for end September,

May not miss out totally. By the end of this week, cloudiness will return, and temporarily wipe out the nip. We should get a few thunderstorms thru next week.

It Turns Out Some Borders *Are* Visible from Space…Something Unusual, and a must for India and Pakistan Viewers….See Space News Page.

According to the latest 5.30 pm (Thursday) report of IMD, BB-8 is now a depression, and is situated just off Balasore (Orissa) coast. IMD announces possibility of system crossing the Orissa coast on Thursday night.

Two points I am not able to understand: BB-8 shows core winds of between 10-20 knts. Depression at 15 knts ??

And NRl, which shows systems in the sea, has withdrawn 92A (BB-8) from Thursday morning. Meaning, aaccording to NRL, system has crossed the coast.

A ridge level has formed at 200 hpa level along the 23N position. This has caused a negative wind shear of 10 knts. On this basis, BB-8 should move NNE, and enter Orissa and move into adjoining W.Bengal. On inter acting with land, system will weaken rapidly.

Vagaries analysis indicate withdrawal of SWM completely from Sindh, Kutch, Central Rajasthan and Punjab.

Very clearly depicted in the current OLR image.

Totally indicative of withdrawal conditions from these regions, the withdrawal stage is all set to cover rest of Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Northern Gujarat in the next 2 days. A fast forming La-Nina may/can push for a speedy SWM retreat.

Due to the adverse conditions, we cannot expect any rains in this week in the above regions which have seen/will see SWM retreat soon.

Days have started heating up in the Rajasthan region, with 36c as the highest, but will rise more.Delhi is expected to touch 36c soon.

Across the border, Sibbi in sindh was 39c. Karachi is still maintaining its day at 33c.

See some rainfall again increasing nominally from Thursday for Kathmandu, as BB-8 advances North.

In the eastern front, BB-7 is gone and BB-8 has formed South of Kolkatta. At 1000 mb, its moderate at this stage, and would soon track NNE into W.Bengal by the 22nd/23rd. By 24th, it could move into Bangladesh. The anti cyclone and "dry" resistence pushes it Northwards.

Anyway, we can expect heavy precipitation in W.Bengal, Sikkim and parts of Jharkhand on Wednesday. Kolkata will again get good rainfall next 2 days.

Thundershowers are expected in Maharashtra this week. A formative easterly trough can bring some rains to coastal A.P./ T.N. on Wednesday/Thursday. Chennai could see some showers. Do not see any meanigful rains in interior Karnataka this week.

See Mumbai Page for latest…

RE-ENTRY ALERT…see Space News Page

Winter ArrivesEarly In The Alps Following MediterraneanStorm..see International Page

A time-lapse taken from the front of the International Space Station as it orbits our planet at night. This movie begins over the Pacific Ocean and continues over North and South America before entering daylight near Antarctica. Visible cities, countries and landmarks include (in order) Vancouver Island, Victoria, Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Los Angeles. Phoenix. Multiple cities in Texas, New Mexico and Mexico. Mexico City, the Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, El Salvador, Lightning in the Pacific Ocean, Guatemala, Panama, Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Lake Titicaca, and the Amazon. Also visible is the earths ionosphere (thin yellow line), a satellite (55sec) and the stars of our galaxy.
Thanks Mark.

During the course of this week, the SWM will be in a withdrawal mode in the NW, and humiditiy  and pressure levels start to drop in the region. Jet streams at 200 mb will take a descive turn towards the west direction. The low pressure area mentioned yesterday in Vagaries, has taken shape over Bangladesh. As estimated, it will last for a day. (Its just about managing at 1002 mb). 

During such a course of action, the weather in the rest of the northern/Central peninsula region is generally un-stable. Direct heating of the land mass, surfeited with moisture, gives rise to several massive thundercells. They will be pop marked all over the M.P, East Gujarat, Maharashtra and adjoining Karnataka and A.P.

In a satellite image, we may see these thundercells going upto more than 15 kms in height, and forming anvils.

Direct interpretation of the 3 comments pertaining to Mumbai:

In my personal opinion, I do not see any stability in Mumbai this week (Tuesday thru Sat), hence lifted index cannot fall into the negative this week. And CAPE will be strong too. This is my personal calculation and estimate, and do not doubt other forecasts or reader's views.

Mumbai Forecast:

Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday/Friday/Saturday: 

On 3 or 4 days from Tuesday thru Saturday, there is a

Possibility of advent of thick strato-cumulus clouds (restricted to morning hours) forming over parts of the city. This may lead to some brief morning showers in restricted areas.Day will be hot at around 32c. 

Later, thunderclouds may form and drift over parts of the city by evening, briinging showers.

Colaba has managed 284 mms and S'Cruz has received 239 mms during September till 19th. Average 261 mms. Vagaries had estimated an average of 300-350 mms for September. 

Falling in place ? What's your take ? (Please check Mumbai Page article dated 1st September. Long term September forecast).

Vagaries withdraws SWM from Central Sindh (Pakistan) and West Rajasthan.


As early as mid-August, Vagaries had put up a poll, predicting SWM withdrawal around 1-5th September, and a mojority of the votes cast was against the prediction."Later" and "do not agree" dominated the votes. 
On 13 th September, Vagaries re-estimated the withdrawal date to 17th September.


Latest charts show the  200 mb jet streams have turned westerly in the Central Pakistan and adjoining Rajasthan region, and rushing along Northern India as west winds.
The 850 chart depicts the humidity dropping in the mentioned region, and a weak ridge formed over the region. Though the anti cyclone is not pronounced, situation is  sustainable as a post monsoon scenario. 


Bikaner and western Rajasthan cities to show a rise in day temperatures to over 38c from tomorrow.
Karachi was 32c today, but expected to rise to 34/35c in the next 2 days. Other cities in Sindh can rise to over 40c from tomorrow.


Current indications show the SWM further withdrawing from rest of Sindh, Kutch and Central Rajasthan and parts of Punjab in the next 48 hrs.


Meanwhile, in the East, BB-7 is fizzling out by tomorrow in the Sikkim/W.Bengal region.
Another low, at 1000 mb could possibly form in Bangladesh in the next 36 hrs. May not last long, but long enough to precipitate fairly heavy rains on Monday/Tuesday in Bangladesh, adjoining Bengal (Kolkatta), Sikkim and Maghalaya. Cherrapunji could catch up to some extent on its lagging total.


Maharashtra will have thundershowers "popping up" in the evening.

Around 6.15 pm Sunday, Earthquake of 6.8 magnitude at a depth of 10 kms with epicentre at Sikkim. Very shallow for mountainous region. Areas shaken include Sikkim, Bhutan, Nepal and W.Bengal.
Depth re calculated to 20.7 kms.

Mark Vogan's Preliminary US Winter Forecast NOW AVAILABLE @ #Long Range!

An Overall Colder/Snowier Than Normal Winter Ahead For USA, Worst of Conditions From Fargo to Philadelphia

Was just working out some details, for Max (Thailand) and for my records. Thought I would share it on Vagaries:

1.Highest 24 hrs rainfall for September at Palam Airport till now is 190 mms in 1963.

2. Cherrapunji is going thru a bad monsoon phase. Rainfall from 1st June - 16 th September there is 5624 mms, that is 2111 mms less than what it should be ! Howevr, the rainfall from 1st Jan 2011 till date there is 7880 mms, and the required annual normal is 11070 mms.

3. Bharuch has had 1123 mms till today this season.While Ankleshwar has managed 697 mms.

The heaviest 24 hr fall in Bharuch was on 5th August 1976, when 460 mms fell in 1 day, and for September the heaviest fall in a day was on 6th Sept 1954 when 305 mms fell.

4. Surat's heaviest 24 hr rain ever was 459 mms in 1941 on 2nd July.

The upper air W.D. S-3, which is traversing the Northern regions of the sub-continent has precipitated good rains in the regions. Inter action with the easterlies has brought good beneficial rains in the region.
Amongst the heavy rain figures till Friday morning: Ludhiana 149 mms, New Delhi (Palam) 121 mms, Patiala 94 mms, Ambala 91 mms.
and in Pakistan:Rawalpini 125 mms, Islamabad: 76 mms, Muree 60 mms.

On Friday, W.D. will move eastwards into the hills, and precipitate rains in H.P. and Kashmir, with possible snow in the higher reaches. Rains in Punjab, Haryana ,Delhi and west U.P. will decrease after Saturday.

BB-7, at 1000 mb, lies over Jharkand. Getting resistence from S-3 and from a high ridge forming in the west. Expected to move NNE, and track towards East U.P. in the next 24 hrs. Precipitation in the eastern region of the state could be heavy from Friday thru Sunday.
Possibly, rains will also move into Central Nepal from Saturday. Kathmandu will have a rainy day on Saturday and if the system survives, possibly Sunday.

West coast off shore trough remains weak. But never the less still present. Forecast charts indiacate a slight "bubbling-up" in the trough off the Konkan in the next 24 hrs. I would put it as a temporary surge, looking at the "anti" scenario in the region.

All regions of South Madhya Mah. will receive thundershowers on the weekend. Lonaval and Mahableshwar too will get thundershowers.
Konkan will get scattered thunderstorms.

Activation of a fading off shore trough will ensure some rains in South Gujarat also.
Surat and Bharuch towns can expect rain with thunder for the weekend.
SWM withdrawal pushing into Kutch and North Gujarat from next week.

On the western front, we see the Vagaries estimate of SWM withdrawal taking shape. With the 200 mb jet streams changing direction sharply by 180 degrees in the above 30N regions, the process has started.
A ridge is seen forming in the region at the 850 mb level. 700 mb winds indicate a post monsoon scenario in the coming 2 days over Central Sindh and West Rajasthan. Looking at the current chart and next 2 days expectations, vagaries would withdraw the SWM from Sindh and West Rajasthan from Sunday. ( Mentioned in vagaries on Tuesday, 13th).

Mumbai:

NT, the decreasing "monsoonish" atmosphere mentioned in Vagaries will continue.

Mumbai received 16 mms rain average between the 2 stations, S'Cruz and Colaba on Friday. Vagaries estimate was 15 mms.

Saturday/Sunday/Monday: Partly cloudy day and sunny spells. Thundershower later in the day. Heavy spells in some areas of the city. Light drizzling rain preceding the thundershower. Daily Rain amounts 20-25 mms.

(Only for those interested: Kaas photo album put up on Vagaries Links section).

Some more Indian Weather Links by individuals put up on "Indian Weatherman" for those interested.

see : 

http://indianweatherman.blogspot.com/search/label/Stats

Mumbai Details

South Mumbai and Central areas received very heavy showers since early morning. Later, during the day, the showers spread towards the North.

On studying the developments, I would say it is an extension Northwards of the strenghtening of the off shore trough.

If we recollect, (check blog of 13th Sept), Vagaries had estimated heavy rains in coastal Karnataka on wednesday, and extending up to Goa on Thursday. This was calculated on the basis of the off shore trough strengthening.

Well, it seems from the detailed pressure chart, that the "loop" showing a trough is off Mumbai on Thursday morning. It is seen on both, the 925 mb and 850 mb charts. More prominent in 925 mb.

This is an extension of the trough a bit more Northwards ( showing prominently around Mumbai in the 925 mb chart).

Answer to Queries: This has nothing to do with BB-7. Such developments can be shortlived. Mumbai could possibly go back to "status Quo" soon.

All lakes( supplying water to Mumbai) except Vaitarna are overflowing. Vaitarna is 98% full. Total water content is 12.95 lmlitres against capacity full of 13.0 lmlitres.

NOAA has changed its outlook for a La Nina from "watch" to "advisory", basically going from it might happen to they’re quite sure it will.

Right now, temperatures in the Pacific are where they are supposed to be, or what NOAA calls neutral. But, SST anomalies across the tropical Pacific Ocean

have cooled during August, when compared to those for July. First 10 days of september are maintaining the trend, though weakly. This has increased the chance of La Niña returning during the last quarter of 2011.

Current ENSO indicators are approaching values typically associated with La Niña events. NOAA scientists don’t think temperatures will stay there much after the last quarter of 2011. After that, temperatures in the Pacific should drop below normal again, kicking off what forecasters say could be another La Nina.

However, some models predict only modest cooling resulting in a borderline-La Niña event, but others predict stronger cooling. Vagaries presumes there is an expectation that the trend towards La Niña will continue, and if a La Niña does form, it will be weaker than the strong 2010-11 event.

The official monthly SOI for August was +2.1.During September, the SOI, has increased marginally. Further cooling of the central Pacific Ocean

coupled with persistent positive SOI values in the next few months would further increase the chance of a La Niña event at the end of 2011.

Meanwhile, BB-7

has precipitated heavy rains in Orissa, with Balasore receiving 123 mms in 9 hrs on Wednesday. Kolkata too had good rains today with Alipore measuring 33 mms in the day.

Akola

received had a severe thunderstorm today, and received 75 mms of rain in a short spell of time in the afternoon.

All these regions were expected to get the benefits of BB-7 as mentioned yesterday. Today the system is very much over the area, at 998 mb in the region of Orissa/W.Bengal.

Indications are of its westward movement into M.P.It seems from the current wind charts, the system will meet with resistance (explained in blog of 13th) on its westward track, and could weaken as a result.

An upper air W.D. is likely to cause medium scale precipitation and snow in the higher reaches of H.P. and Kashmir on Thursday and Friday.

Northern Pakistan

areas will also benefit from this system.

Mumbai forecast for Thursday/Friday published yesterday holds good.

See Mumbai Page for Wednesday sunset pic.

For latest all India Rain toppers upto 11th September see: http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com/

A fresh low pressure has formed in the Bay. BB-7, lies off the Orissa/W.Bengal coast at 998 mb. Its an "in situ" formation, and reflects an active monsoon pulse in the axis.

Like mentioned earlier, would normally expect the system to track along the axis "corridor". The axis currently runs from the seasonal low over Central Sindh ( Pakistan), thru Jaisalmer thru eastern M.P. and then thru Orissa into BB-7. But then, one should expect the axis itself to remain in place.

Anyway, already flooded Orissa will get more rains and heavy falls in gangetic W.Bengal next 2 days.

Kolkata should see heavy rains next 12-24 hrs.

Would expect the system to move inland into M.P.bringing revived rainfall to east M.P. and Vidharbha. Thundershowers would effect Nagpur on Wednesday, 14th. Expect heavy falls due to convection, and rains up to 20-35 mms possible in some areas.

Further intensification or tracking of the system depends entirely on the "counter resistance" it gets from the West. Like I estimate, an anticyclone should form in the Central Sindh/West Rajasthan region from Friday. BB-7 future depends on the speed and strength of this development.

If it is countered by this anti cyclone at 850 mb (which will start the SWM withdrawal phase), it may not be able to survive much, but if the withdrawal process is weak, then BB-7 could be the master.

Rainfall for Konkan and Mumbai depends on this. Picture will get clear in a day or two.

A strong off shore trough brought some heavy rains in Kerala last 24 hrs. Would expect this to move a bit North into coastal Karnataka on Wednesday. Very heavy falls in coastal Karnataka and parts of Goa on Thursday.

T.N. expected to remain in status quo position.

The clouding in the Sindh region last several days is due to a UAC embedded in the seasonal low. Whether this is the remnant of BB-6 or not does not matter. The seasonal low on the western end of the monsoon trough is elongated, and surprisingly still attracting moisture, mainly due to non stop winds feeding from the Arabian Sea. rather unusual !

But now the winds have eased a bit, and even changed direction.Soon the clouds will thin out, and spread over a larger area, but with lesser rains.

Karachi got another day of rainfall on Tuesday, with almost 70 mms falling overnite.

As mentioned, would expect the rains to decrease from Wednesday, and almost cease from Thursday/Friday.I say a day more than previous mentioned as the moisture brought in the last 2 days can possibly cause some convection for another day.

Mumbai had a warmer day on Tuesday, with the high reaching 30.7c at Colaba and 31.7c at S'Cruz. A couple of showers wetted the city in the evening. S'Cruz has recorded 8 mms till 11 pm while it was 2 mms at Colaba. Dadar got 10 mms in the same period.

Wednesday/Thursday: Partly cloudy with intervals of sunny spells. A couple of showers, passing types, but day temperature will be at 30/31c. Rain amount 10-15 mms.

Rainfall could increase from Thursday night, but shall confirm that later.

Catching up with the blog put up last, on Thursday 8th, today we see BB-6 stationed over south Rajasthan. Vagaries had mentioned on Thursday that we expect the system to persist in the extreme west position shown in Vagaries' map for a few days after Monday.

On the weekend, BB-6 has moved along the route anticipated by Vagaries, with heavy rainfalls recorded from South Gujarat (Palanpur 16 cms, Vadgam 14 cms and Vapi 11 cms), South Rajasthan (Udaipur AWS 14 cms and Abu 10 cms and Pratpgarh 8 cms) and North Konkan.

Along the North Konkan coast, Vasai, recorded 99 mms of rain on Sunday till Monday morning. Hill station Lonaval recorded 6 cms, Mahableshwar 4 cms.

Bharuch received 54 mms on Sunday, and the season's total in Bharuch at 1095 mms has crossed the annual normal of 1001 mms..

Delhi and surroundings also had rains this weekend .Though vagaries had mentioned light rains, it was not very light for a couple of stations, with New Delhi getting 61 mms on Friday and Agra getting 42 mms and Bharatpeur 35 mms on Saturday.

Kathmandu received 15 mms of rain on Monday.

However, the only "out of tune " part, going against our forecast, was in Western Gujarat and across the border. The continuing rainfall in West Saurashtra, Kutch and Southern Sindh region has surprised us. The seasonal low, though now having weakened to 1000 mb, and spread over a larger area, still manages to attract considerable moisture and to bring heavy rains in some cities of these regions. In fact, today (Monday), even the sea level wind factor goes against the formation of cloudings of such a thick density. And seasonal lows are not "supposed " to attract moisture !But its there !

Kayanpur and Dwarka (Jamnagar district ) saw 130 mms and 111 mms resp on Sunday.

Heaviest in Sindh has been in Mithi, which measured 225 mms, 137 mms, 100 mms , 68 mms respectively on each day from Wednesday, 7th September.

Flooding in Sindh has been reported.

Tyrone from Karachi has reported of a thunderstorm on Saturday and a heavier one, flooding parts of Karachi on Sunday evening. Karachi Airport has recorded rainfall of 24 mms on Saturday. Different regions of the city the highest on received between 8 mms to 38 mms on Saturday and i read of a report of 85 mms in Karachi (maybe in a certain area) on Sunday.

I see this (Kutch/Sindh) rainfall diminishing in area by Tuesday (13th), and disappearing by Wednesday. In fact, I feel the UAC over South Rajasthan will fade out by Thursday,and form an anti-cyclone over the region by Saturday. Translating, an anticyclone at 850 mb, means the SWM has withdrawn. Forecast maps of jet streams at 200 mb show changing direction from saturday.

Vagaries expects the SWM to retreat from Central Sindh and extreme west Rajasthan by Saturday 16th, give or take a day .

Decreasing rains with brighter weather in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, before parting thundershowers start.

Mumbai recieved the heavy showers forecasted for Sunday. Colaba received 40 mms and S'Cruz 35 mms on Sunday (average 37 mms). Vagaries' estimate for Sunday was 30-35 mms.

Monsoonish atmosphere decreasing gradually.

Tuesday/Wednesday: Intervals of sun and clouds. 3/4 passing showers. Rain amount 15 mms.Day will be warmer than Monday with a high of 30/31c (28/29 on Monday).

Thursday/Friday: Partly cloudy with a few passing showers. A heavy shower towards evening possible. Rain amount 15-20 mms.

Note on ENSO on Wednesday.

We will now shift our attention eastwards towards BB-6. Located at sea level and at 998 mb over Jharkhand, it is generating rainfall in Orissa and parts of Jharkhand on Thursday.

Where will it track ? Normally, as per met. "rules'', it should travel in the corridor "provided" for it, that is the monsoon trough line. Today, the axis is along the line from Jaisalmer (Rajasthan) thru Varanasi (South U.P.) thru the system into the Bay.

It is probable that the Western end of the axis might just shift a bit Southwards.The system may move along it, with moisture support from the Bay, as the East winds above the axis are strong. But, there are more chances of the West wind South of the axis dominating, being stronger than the Easterlies. In such a case, we should see more clouding and precipitation South of the system along the route. Hence precipitation wise, we will have rains on Friday in Jharkhand, Chattisgarh and adjoining East M.P.

This forecast map is prepared on Thursday night, and the rainfall is projected progressively from Friday, 9th thru Sunday 11th.. (Moving westwards).See enlarged map here.

I feel BB-6, may not deepen much, and will track into Central M.P. region by Friday/Saturday. Meaning rainfall in M.P. and Vidharbha on Saturday. Nagpur can get rains on Saturday and Sunday.

Saturday/Sunday, BB-6 will then track towards South Rajasthan, with rains moving into Eastern Gujarat and rains commencing in the North Konkan/south Gujarat coast due to SW winds attracted to the system.

Delhi and adjoining Rajasthan regions will have cloudy weather with light rains this weekend. Mah. ghat stations (Mahableshwar/Lonavala) would again get good rains this weekend.

SE winds can push some rainfall into central Nepal ,and Kathmandu on Sunday/Monday.

System will persist in the extreme west position shown in map for a day or so, and precipitation in West M.P, Saurashtra and North Konkan will continue into Monday, albeit lesser amounts. We are not expecting extreme heavy rains in this case in Gujarat or Konkan.

Frankly, according to me, precipitation moving beyond Saurashtra or East Rajasthan into Pakistan is doubtfull.

Mumbai:

Friday: Partly cloudy, with sunny spells. A few passing type showers. Rain amount upto 10 mms.

Saturday: More clouding, with passing showers, a few heavy. Rainfall frequency increasing slightly from night. Rain amount 20-25 mms.

Sunday: Cloudy with intermittent showers. A Heavy shower possible in evening with thunder. Rain amounts 30-35 mms.

Pune

: Chances of Thundershower on Saturday evening. Sunday cloudy with thundershower in the evening.

There will no updates or articles next 4 days, as I am going to Kaas Plateau of Flowers. Located in the Maharashtra Western Ghats, its a place to see natural carpets of flowers, and the right season is now. Shall put up pics in the links on Vagaries.
Next article will be in place on Monday night.

For those Interested, my views on Ananth's point and comment put up on Inter Action Page of Vagaries.

The monsoon axis now shows an embedded low, a sort of a "core low" at 996 mb in an enlarged 'west end" low of 998 mb. A small variation from the parent low, and over a limited area, as was seen in the charts on Wednesday morning. See here.

As a result of persistent feeding, and stubborn resistence to survival, very heavy rains, flooding rains were reported from the surroundings of this low.

As on 24 hrs ended Wednesday morning, all places in Kutch received torrential rains. Amongst them, Nakhatrana (dist Kutch) 27, Abdasa (dist Kutch) 20, Bhuj (dist Kutch) 19, Mandvi (dist Kutch) 17, Naliya (dist Kutch) 14 cms.

Yesterday, Dwarka received 304 mms, Kalyanpur 298 mms and Naliya (Kutch) 198 mms. Previous day as on 6th morning 24 hrs, Kalyanpur had received 210 mms. Bhuj seasonal total has now shot up to 694 mms. Several places in Kutch have now reached totala between 500-800 mms.

Across the border, Torrential rains in Sindh saw Mithi getting 225 mms, Karachi A.P. 75 mms.

Karachi recieved thundershowers on Tuesday. As per vagaries' normal system of city rain measurement, the average rainfall of 5 centres worked out to 30 mms (as reproduced by Tyrone), Vagaries estimate was 20 mms.

Thundershower possible in some parts of Karachi on Wednesday, ad decreasing rains from Thursday.

We see the core low within the main low "peeping" in and out quite frequently in the last 36 hrs. But, now it has rained out its utility, and from Thursday, we will be left with the "normal" seasonal low over Barmer.

Rainfall activity will drastically decrease in SE Sindh and Kutch, and most of Saurashtra.

However, as the west coast off shore trough runs from Saurashtra coast to Karnataka, rainfall along the Porbandar-Veraval Saurashtra coast will continue till Friday.

BB-6 has formed, and at 1000 mb and is over North Orissa/Jharkhand region. BB-6 is waiting for the clearance to move inland. As per forecasts, it will move Westwards into M.P., and then fade away.

Wednesday 7th September, and Thursday 8th September, system will move and strenghten a bit, and by Friday 9th, should be over East M.P. Wednesday and Thursday will see precipitation in Jharkhand, Orissa and Chattisgarh. Precipitation moving towards M.P. and Vidharbha from Friday.

Thundershowers in Nagpur on Thursday and Friday.

Increased rainfall also in North Konkan from Friday, as BB-6 attracts Arabian Sea moisture.

Mumbai saw some showers from Tuesday evening onwards. Vagaries had predicted 20 mms, for Tuesday, while between Colaba and S'Cruz 13 mms were recieved. As per MCGM , in the 24 hrs eneded Wednesday morning, Deonar got 55 mms and Dadar received 28 mms.

Wednesday forecast will be valid as put up on Monday's blog.

We see rainfall intensity increasing from Friday due to BB-6 approaching central India.

Thane has crossed the 3000 mms mark, and it seasonal total now stands at 3024 mms, 122% of the normal rains. Its normal for the entire season is 2468 mms.

A SINCERE THANK YOU...

With constant support and feeback from readers, the Vagaries' visitor counter has crossed the 100,000 mark! It may be a normal thing for professionals and institutions, but for a small time blogger like me, it's a big thing, from 50000 in December 2010 to 1,00,000 today.

Constant interaction with friends and readers, has helped me in bringing Vagaries to its present international status.

My theory has always been to put in proper facts by explaining them in the simplest form.

Each prediction has been, as far as possible, supported by charts and reasoning. Its always prudent for a meteorologist to explain and not just prophesise. Things may eventually fall in place or go either way. Like I said, I am a meteorologist, not a magician.

Vagaries has constantly kept you updated with extreme records and events. When we started our 'Interactive' page, the inputs from readers were very helpful, and a variety of information and pictures became possible.

Our Partner, Mark Vogan, has contributed tremendously towards the popularity of Vagaries. His constant support, and a permanent page on his blog, made his readers from Europe "aware" of Vagaries.

Special inputs from Cmdr. Potey, Akshay, and svt has added more substance to the matter and contributed to Vagaries' popularity. Shiraz, your inputs of "buckets" of rain in Mahableshwar, and the rain figures, has drenched us with valuable information from head to toe!

Akshay, thanks for putting up a special write up on your blog.

NT, your cross-examining has kept me alert. And, without Ashokbhai's expertise, my forecasting would be a "half-hearted attempt".

Neeraj and Tyrone's constant input and feedback from Kathmandu and Karachi has given Vagaries the proper sub-continent touch. PWP, our exchange of views has benefited both.

Max, has always touched up my records, and kept the inflow of record breaking temperatures and events coming, from Thailand and elsewhere.

Emkay, your touch of humour and comments has many a times had me re-reading my blog!

And of course sset, let me admit, I cannot bring or carry the rains to the South India.

Pradeep, I feel, with your superb inputs and rain totals, readers are now waiting more for this than the actual Vagaries write up.

Special thanks from Vagaries to: Akshay (Nagpur), Ananth, Ashokbhai (Rajkot), Atul, Cmdr. Potey (Mumbai), emkay (Panvel), Ganesh, Jayesh, Jim (Accuweather), Junaid (Panvel), Mark Vogan (Scotland), Max (Thailand), Neeraj (Nepal), Pakistan Weather Portal, Pavan (Pune), Pradeep (Chennai), RK (Delhi), Sanjay (Mumbai), Shiraz (Mahabaleshwar), Shridhar (Thane), svt, sset, Tyrone (Karachi) and a host of other "anonymous" readers who have supported and guided Vagaries regularly with very valuable inputs.

I appreciate the "likes" from my "fb" friends..

And above all, thanks to everyone for allowing me to feel that you actually trust my forecasting -:)))

Looking East ! Another low descends in the Bay. Though I am not numbering it yet, maybe wait for it to deepen a bit, it is very much there off the North Orissa/W.Bengal coast at 1000 mb. We shall wait till tomorrow to see what happens, but I expect it to strengthen by tomorrow,and remain in position.

The monsoon axis is much too down south today, over Gujarat and running thru Rajasthan and Orissa into the low pressure in the bay.

The seasonal low over the Sindh/Rajasthan region is at 996 mb,and stretches up to Gujarat. The line joining the 2 lows is attracting much of the rainfall.

Strong winds, exceeding 30 knts, are brushing the southern periphery of the low. These winds are curving anticlockwise around the "greater Low'. NW along the Sindh coast till SW Gujarat, and then SW along the North Konkan (hence the windy conditions inMumbai) and adjoining south Gujarat coast.

Winds are expected to touch 40 knts in the same region tomorrow, and by Wednesday, Saurashtra Peninsula will be wind swept, with westerlies.

Strong moisture laden winds has led to the formation of a thick cloud mass off the south Sindh and Gujarat coast on Monday.

Now developed, this mass of cloud should move NE, into the sindh coastline, and adjoining Gujarat coast on Monday/Tuesday.

Heavy rains could be expected in coastline sindh and Lower Sindh on Tuesday. However, winds along the sindh coast will ease by evening as the low weakens. Karachi had another hot day, at 38c, with Nwinds throughout the day. Could expect a thundershower tonight, and some on Tuesday and Wednesday as well. Would estimate somewhat heavy showers, and rains may be around 15 mms.

Western Gujarat coast, and part of western Saurashtra can get heavy rains on Tuesday, decreasing by Wednesday. Expect some increase in rains also in N.Konkan on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Interior Mah. and Karnataka rainfall will be minimal. A few thundershowers due to development of isolated thunder cells may pop up at a few isolated pockets. No "system" rains on an "organised" scale.

As the precipitation caused by Easterly moisture has been triggered by the erstwhile BB5, we may see some of it continuing on Tuesday in Delhi, U.P. and moving into Nepal on Tuesday. Overall decreasing by Wednesday.

On Monday, Mumbai had a partly cloudy day, with sunny intervals and a few passing showers. Sunday had seen 19 mms and 13 mms at Colaba and S'Cruz resp. But Monday measured only 2 mms and 3 mms respectively.

Tuesday: As explained above in the article, with the winds increasing speed on Tuesday along the N.Konkan coast, we may see more showers on Tuesday as compared to Monday. Frequency of rain will be more (don’t expect too much) from late afternoon, and some showers tending to get heavy and with gusty winds. Thunder possible with some showers. Rain amount 20 mms.

Wednesday: A let up in the winds. And so a marginal decrease in the rainfall. A few showers on Wednesday. Rain amount 10-15 mms.

Pune had a cloudy day, with the high at 27c. Light rain in the day measured 0.5 mms.

Tuesday/Wednesday: cloudy day, with light drizzles in some parts. Thunderclouds developing by evening, when a shower is possible in some parts.

Dedication-


METD WEATHER DEDICATES THIS VIDEO AND THE EXCLUSIVE IMAGES TO MY SENIOR FRIEND FROM MUMBAI -

RAJESHBHAI KAPADIA

Readers already must be knowing that Rajeshbhai writes a wonderful blog "Vagaries of Weather"
on Indian Weather as well as discussions about Global Weather.

The blog was set up in 2006 on 15th July 2011 by Rajesh Kapadia (check his profile) who has been looking at the weather since last 40 years!
Since then there have been many wonderful posts on his blog with a total of 1135 posts from July 2006 till date.

The blog is reaching a MILESTONE OF 1LAKH VISITORS SHORTLY !

So, I dedicate this post with esteemed pleasure to Rajeshbhai for his generous and non stop work in Meteorology and wish for more success of the blog

Akshay Deoras

METD WEATHER: METD WEATHER DEDICATES OUR FIRST HD VIDEO,X RAY IM...: METD WEATHER AKSHAY DEORAS SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER I AM PROUD TO ANNOUNCE THAT THE CHASE HAS BEEN FRUITFUL AND METD WEATHER HAS ...