Monday, February 29, 2016

Posted Monday, 29th February, Night:
Rains in Maharashtra next 3/4 days..Specially heavy Thunder showers/rains with hail possible in Vidharbh and Madhya Maharashtra.
Rains/Thunder Showers expected in adjoining Southern M.P. and A.P. on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some places in M.P. may get heavy showers.

Mumbai:Tuesday will be cloudy, and Wednesday will see some thundery developments in the East. 
Rains expected in Mumbai and Outer Townships on Wednesday night or latest by Thursday. Friday too will be cloudy with thunder shower.Can expect 3-5 mms on Thursday and around 5 mms again on Friday.

Showers possible in Panvel, Roha and other towns in the vicinity on Wednesday night thry Friday.

Pune: Tuesday/Wednesday and Thursday: Partly cloudy with thunder showers by afternoon/evening. Upto 5 mms on Tuesday and Wednesday and around 10 mms on Thursday.

Aurangabad: Thunder shower on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Squally winds possible during showers.

Many areas in Marathwada and Vidharbha had showers and hail on Monday. during the day, Parbhani measured 14 mms, Gondia 13 mms, Buldana 9 mms, Ahmednagar 5 mms and Nagpur 3 mms. Pune had light rain in some parts.

Western Disturbance M-1 moves into Pakistan on Tuesday 1st March. Precipitation expected in Northern Pakistan (Punjab) and Upper Sindh.
Rainfall covers more parts of Sindh on Wednesday, and as M-1 moves East..Most parts of Sindh can expect showers.

Showers expected in Muscat next 2 days, with cooler days.

1st spell of Rains and Hailstorms lash Maharashtra & Telangana in 2016, ending 8.30 am on 01.03.2016
Trough in the lower level easterlies runs from southern parts of Konkan & Goa to South Gujrat and extends upto 0.9 km above mean sea level.

Maharashtra (Min 10 mm)
Aheri - 68
Sindhewahi - 66
Saoli - 66
Chimur - 60
Gadchiroli - 40
Bhamragad - 40
Etapalli - 30
Mulchera - 30
Amgaon - 30
Mul - 30
Joiti - 30
Aundha Nagnath - 29
Yelgaon - 23
Parbhani - 23
Khengarewadoi - 21
Chichondi Patil - 20
Paratwara - 20
Chamorshi - 20
Dharwa - 20
Arni - 20
Salekasa - 20
Sakoli - 20
Deoli- 20
Ranjani - 20
Kolgaon - 16
Gondia - 15
Banganga - 12
Mangrulpir - 10
Manora - 10
Ner - 10
Chandurbazar  - 10
Chikhaldara  - 10
Tiwsa - 10
Dhamangaon Rly - 10
Armori - 10
Dhanora - 10
Buldhana - 10
Dhule - 10
Ballarpur - 10
Rajura - 10
Korpana - 10
Nanded - 10
Nagbhir - 10
Gondpipri - 10
Bhadravati - 10
Pombhurna - 10
Hinghanghat - 10
Lakhani - 10
Nazare - 10
Gondia AP - 10
Deori - 10
Nivale - 10

Telangana (min 30 mm)
Mahabubabad - 81
Sirsilla - 72
Dornakal - 58
Medaram - 55
Mogullapalle - 52
Jainad - 50
Sarangapur - 49
Warangal - 47
Bhupalpalle - 46
Venkatapur - 44
Garla - 44
Paidepalle - 43
Asifabad - 42
Huzurabad - 42
Perumandla Sankeesa - 41
Sultanabad - 39
Upparagudem - 38
Domakonda - 37
Bayyaram - 36
Pegadapalle - 36
Veenavanka - 36
Kasimdevpeta - 36
Kommera - 35
Tiryani - 33
Gundi - 33
Sadasivanagar - 32
Vedurugatta - 32
Mallempalli - 32
Yellandu - 31
Tadwai - 30
Mancherial - 30
Marthanpeta - 30
Chennaraopet - 30
Kunaram - 30

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Posted Thursday Night:

1. Friday 26th:Thunder Showers in Gangetic West Bengal (Kolkata) will last for another day on Friday, though much restricted and less.Rains in Northern Odisha and adjoining Chattisgarh.

2. Saturday 27th: ThunderShowers in Vidharbh and Marathwada (Aurangabad & Nagpur) on Sunday. Thundery Developments East of Pune. 

3. Sunday 28th: Thunder Shower possible in Pune and vicinity. . Showers likely in Marathwada (Aurangabad).Thunder showers in Akola and Nagpur regions.

4. Monday 29th:Showers in Pune and vicinity as Showers spreading to Southern Madhya Maharashtra ( Satara and Mahableshwar). Thunder showers in Akola and Nagpur regions.

5. A Western Disturbance will approach North Pakistan and NW and North India on the 2nd.March.

6. Cloudy weather and showers expected in Abu Dhabi on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.Days will be pleasant around 26-28c.

Mumbai will be partly cloudy this weekend. Some thundery developments in the  Eastern skies on Sunday. 

As predicted by Vagaries, Odisha gets 1st spell of heavy rains in 2016 and much needed relief from Winter Heat Wave, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 27.02.2016
Bhubaneswar recorded 40.9 C on 20th February 2016. The 1st station to record 40 C in India in 2016, such was the heatwave in Odisha. The 1st widespread rains in 2016 in Odisha is given below

in mm (min 10 mm)

Athmalik - 87
Kankadahad - 75
Ghatagaon - 60
Udala - 60
Nilgiri - 53
Altuma - 52
Balasore - 51
Laikera - 50
Joda - 43 
Akhuapada - 42
Bhuban - 41
Khaprakhol - 40
Anandpur - 39
Tikarpara - 39
Karanjia - 38
Barkote - 37
Birmaharajpur - 33
Agalpur - 32
Korei - 32 
Thakurmunda - 31 
Champua - 31
Balimundali - 30
Jenapur - 29
Jaipur - 29
Bonth - 29
Jajpur - 29
Kirmira - 28
Chandikhol - 28
Sukinda - 28
Samakhunta - 28
Bhadrak - 27
Ullunda - 27
Baripada - 27
Swampatna - 17
Govindapur - 15
Ragbangpur - 11
Chandanpur - 10
Rajghat - 10
Keonjhargarh - 10

Odisha continues to get rains for 2nd day ending 8.30 am on 28.02.2016

in mm (min 10 mm)

Bonth - 78
Betanati - 45
Bhadrak - 42
Rayagada - 38
Dhamnagar - 30
Chendipada - 30
Aska - 30
Korei - 21
Chandbali - 20
Talcher - 18
Jajpur - 18
Banarpal - 17
Tentulikhunti - 17
Chandikhol - 16
Bari - 13
Daitari - 13
Mahisapat - 12
Gopalpur - 12 
Angul - 12
Dhenkanal- 12
Basudevpur - 11
Pallahara - 10
Puri - 10

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Hopes Rise if El Nino Eases: 
( Continuation from..We have probably reached the peak...published on 28th January).

" In Meteorological terms, this El Nino is now in decline. But we cannot lower our guard, as it still quite strong and in humanitarian and economic terms, its impacts will continue for many months to come." ..WMO Secratary General Petterri Taalas.
A very straightforward and cautious statement. 

The El Nino is surely on the wane. What we normally should observe initially is the Sea temperatures "below the surface'. If this lower "below sea level" waters start cooling, the cooler waters surface, and the sea surface temperatures drop in the wake of this process. Now, cooling sea water below surface are measured in the Eastern Pacific region.
However, Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (difference from normal) have cooled over the past fortnight. Actual temperature drop in Nino 3.4c is only 0.1c and 
in Nino 3 it is 0.2c.

Since its the anomaly that has dropped, the El Nino levels remain at moderate to strong El Niño levels. So, the virtual disappearance of this El Nino phenomena is still a long time away. April /May/ June may see a transitional Neutral Stage of the ENSO.

In the January period, we generally see a variation and intra-seasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure). This directly affects the  the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and OLR parameters. negative anomalies have been observed over the central and/or eastern Pacific.
Anomalous upper-level (200-hPa) easterlies were observed over most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anti-cyclones straddled the equator. 

SOI values cannot be considered as reliable during this ( January) period. Seasonal storm systems cause massive fluctuation, from -23 on 26th Jan.. to -9 on 14th February.

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is important in monitoring and even forecasting the expected turn of the ENSO event.
Most recent ONI value is 2.3. ( +0.5 and over is El Nino; -0.5 and below indicates La Nina. But for a full fledged La Nina (or El Nino), it must be consistent for at least 5 overlapping seasons. So, a La Nina developing before August does not look possible.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology:- "Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral year, and 40% have been followed by La Niña. International climate models suggest neutral is most likely for the second half of the year. However, La Niña in 2016 cannot be ruled out."

Vagaries would estimate, as stated earlier in its article, the El Nino effect on the Indian climate would wane and decline only after June 2016. This would mean a weak sluggish start to the South West Monsoon. The Monsoon gaining strength after July is possible, and may extend into October. 
This would augur well for India, and would come as a relief after 2 consecutive drought years.

But, while determining the quantum of the 2016 Monsoon, we must understand and remember that ENSO is only 1 of the parameters. The IMD has 6 parameters to consider while giving its April forecast for the SWM. Gowarikar's method (still held in high esteem by Vagaries) has 16 parameters.

Next Part end of March.....

Sunday, February 21, 2016

Monday 22nd/Tuesday 23rd and Wednesday 24th February:

1. The Heat Wave eases in the Eastern States of Odisha and W.Bengal. Clouds appear, and the day temperatures start dropping by 3/4c. 
Bhubaneshwar becomes cloudy, and can expect a thunder shower on Wednesday.
Kolkata also gets cloudy, with traces of rain on Monday and Tuesday in parts. Wednesday the city can expect a 15-20 mms thunder shower.

Mumbai: Partly cloudy and hazy sun. Nights will be less cool. Temperatures between 32c and 21c.
Pune: A heat alert for Pune as we can expect the mercury to touch 37c or maybe 38c on Tuesday.

Srinagar: Sharp drop in minimum temperatures from Monday morning.
Delhi NCR: Sunny days, with temperatures touching 30c by Tuesday.
Indore: Warming upto 34/35c by Wednesday.
Saurashtra (Junagadh, Rajkot): After a warm Monday /Tuesday, around 33/34c, the day can touch 35c on Wednesday.

Mumbai cloudy on Saturday...see pics on Mumbai Page

Saturday, February 20, 2016

Its Bhubaneshwar !!...The first 40c (40.9c) in India for 2016 Season has been recorded at Bhubaneshwar...20th February 2016. 

The Contest is closed 
So, there were no winners.....ot a single entry mentioned or anticipated Bhubaneshwar to touch 40c first.
Never mind...All tried their best...and that's why its called "The Vagaries of the Weather "

This is not the first time Bhubaneshwar has achieved this distinction...Earlier in 2009, it was the  first to touch 40c on 25th February, and again in 2012 on 26th February.

Incidentally, Vagaries private records show this as the earliest 40c in India, the previous being Akola in 2006 on 22nd February. (Vagaries does not have any records prior to 1985.

Friday, February 19, 2016

Mumbai can expect Cloudy weather on Saturday 20th, with light drizzles in some parts of city or in the vicinity. More likely drizzles in Northern outer townships.

Pune will be cloudy and warm. Hot summer like 37c expected on Sunday, from Friday's 33c.

Delhi was warm on Friday as predicted, with S'Jung rising to 29.8c and it was 32.8c at Gurgaon. 
Several regions of Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana had some rain on Friday.
Kashmir and HP had rain/snow, with Srinagar being at a high of 12.5c.
The contest results are now nearing, with 40c just a few days away....On Friday, Bhubaneshwar has managed 39.3c, and Angul has suddenly shot up to 39.1c.Nizamabad was 38.8c. Cannur was 38.8c....Another candidate i would not rule out is Akola. Akola shot up to 38.4c on Friday.
Table sent by Vagarian Santosh subramanian

Thursday, February 18, 2016

Daily Highest Temp in India will be put up in "Flash Snippets" till 40c is reached >>>>>>    

Posted Thursday Evening:

Western Disturbance F-3 will bring precipitation to North Pakistan (Punjab) and Upper Sindh regions on Friday 19th.
Winds subside in Karachi from Friday.

On the Indian side, Kashmir, HP, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan can expect rains, more in the Kashmir and HP regions.

Saturday will see precipitation shifting Eastwards into India. Very heavy rain/snow likely in Kashmir and HP. Srinagar will get rains, bringing down the day temperatures to 12/13c. Rains likely in Shimla with a cold Saturday.
Cloudy weather in Gujarat on Saturday..

New Delhi will initially get a bit warm on Friday 19th, being cloudy do not expect the night temperatures to fall. Saturday will bring rains.

North winds start from Sunday. Cooler temperatures expected from Sunday in Rajasthan, Gujarat, MP and Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra.

Mumbai can expect warm day on Friday and Saturday, around 31c. Cool winds from Saturday evening or Sunday, bringing a fall in day and night temperatures to around 28c and 16/17c at night...

Kolkata: Hot days for Kolkata...with the high at DumDum on Thursday at 34.7c, and 34.5c at Alipur, it is already 5c above normal. This city may have to bear 35c on Friday and 36/37c on Saturday/Sunday. From Tuesday 23rd and Wednesday as showers will bring the relief from the heat wave.

Monday, February 15, 2016

Daily Highest Temp in India will be put up in "Flash Snippets" till 40c is reached >>>>>>    

Posted Wednesday 17th Night:
Partly cloudy weather prevailed in parts of Saurashtra and East Gujarat. Mumbai too was partly cloudy with medium to high clouds.

Some rainfall occurred in parts of Oman, with Rustaq getting 6 mms, Qaboos Port 4.4mms and Sohar 3 mms. Al Amerat had 2.8 mms.
Dubai was overcast.

Karachi was very windy, with dry winds blowing between 42-48 kmph. Reported gusts reached 53 kmph. Visibility was reduced to 1 km by evening due to blowing dust, and the port city had a low humidity at 12%.

Posted Monday 15th, Night:

Mumbai: Next 3 days 16th/17th/18th). Partly cloudy with rise in night temperatures. Nights will get warmer, as the day gets partly shady. Day temperatures will be 2/3c higher than the last few days.
Pune: Getting gradually warmer, reaching 35c by Thursday. Partly cloudy on Tuesday and Wednesday tends to make the nights warmer at 17/18c.

Delhi NCR: Partly cloudy, but rise in night temperatures. Light drizzle in some rgions on Thursday. Days will see a rise in temperatures to 30c. Rains on Saturday cooling the days again.

Hyderabad (India) remains dry at around 34/35c next few days.

Karachi: Gusty NE winds on Tuesday afternoon, and more on Wednesday afternoon. Could gust to around 45 kmph. Thursday can also be very windy at 45-50 kmph.

Outlook for 16th/17th and 18th:
Tuesday 16th: Light rains in M.P.and Chattisgarh. In the South, light showers likely in T.N. and Kerala.
There is a remote chance of surprise light rain in some patchy areas of Konkan and Eastern Gujarat regions. Partly cloudy in the regions.

Wednesday 17th: Some rains in M.P. and Chattisgarh. Cloudy with light rain in Eastern Rajasthan. T.N. and Kerala will continue to get showers in some regions.
Day temperatures rising in NW India, North India, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Places in Vidharbha will touch 35c alongwith some Saurashtra cities.

Thursday 18th: Some isolated rains in Rajasthan. Few pockets of T.N. and Kerala get some showers on Thursday also.
Days getting warmer in Gujarat and Maharshtra. Ahmadabad can rise to 36c. Vidharbh may rise to 35/37c.
W.D. F-3 approaching extreme North.

Showers likely in Dubai and North Oman (Muscat) on Wednesday.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Daily Highest Temp in India will be put up in "Flash Snippets" till 40c is reached >>>>>>

The 40c Contest entries time is over...We now wait for the first 40c  !!
Entries: The following Cities were named as the first to reach 40c...

Bellary, Chandrapur, Nagpur, Ratnagiri, Angul, Surat, Nellore, Ahmedabad...1 entry each

Akola, Rentachintala, Gulbarga and Raichur...2 entries each

Anantpur...3 entries  + 1 (Vagaries)

Nizamabad...5 entries

Kurnool...7 entries.

Note: Few entries put up directly in Blog also included.

Friday, February 12, 2016

Vagaries has crossed 11,00,000 Page Hits..

Posted Friday 12th Night:

Current pleasant temperature range in Mumbai, between 28c and 18c will continue into Saturday and Sunday. Mumbai could see rise in temperatures by 4/5c from Wednesday 17th onwards.

Day temperatures will start to show a rise in North-West, Central and North India and in Parts of Sindh and Pak Punjab from Wednesday 17th February..
Delhi may touch 31c, Nagpur and Ahmadabad could reach 36c !

Weekend will see light rains/snow in Kashmir and Upper reaches of H.P. Prevailing WD moves away.

Monday 15th: Light rains in East M.P. and Chattisgarh.
Tuesday 16th: Rains in South T.N, Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Goa. (Upper air off shore west coast trough). Some isolated showers in parts of East M.P.
Gusty NE winds in South East Sindh including Karachi.
Wednesday 17th. Showers in N.I. Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra (Pune/Nasik), adjoining M.P, Kerala, N.I. Karnataka and TN.
Thursday 18th: Possible showers in Saurashtra, and SE Rajasthan.
Gusty NE winds in South East Sindh including Karachi.

Tuesday onwards situation will be reviewed again on Monday, as we depend on the formation and extension of the off shore upper air trough and LWD.


Few Hours remaining for putting up your entry for the " First 40c " Contest...Post your entries to the mail address:
Many entries are received and acknowledged...please see that you get the ack ...

On the West coast of India , night temperatures decrease as one goes inland from the coast ..

Eg . Mumbai Region Jan 2016 averages .. 
  • Mumbai SCZ avg.. [ 31 c / 16 c ]  .. 4 kms inland 
  • Mumbai Badlapur avg.. [ 31 c / 13 c ] .. 30 kms inland .. (private readings by Vagarian Abhijit)
Goa also shows a similar trend 

To read more about Mumbai and Goa winter microclimates .. please click on the below link .. 

Tuesday, February 09, 2016



Geographic centres of India , South America and Africa are the warmest 
Geographic centres of Russia , Canada are the coldest 

(Click and enlarge for better view)

Monday, February 01, 2016

Posted Thursday Night

Weekend forecast for Friday 5th/Saturday 6th and Sunday 7th:

Mumbai Santacruz which was at 14c and Colaba at 19c on Thursday, will see the same temperature range on Friday, with the day at around 29/30c. Slight rise on Saturday and Sunday.
Pune , on the weekend, will be in the range of 33c in the day and 11/12c at night.
Maharashtra night temperatures rising from current trend this weekend...

A Western Disturbance (F-1) will cover the extreme North of Pakistan with rains and snow on Saturday 6th. On 6th, cloudy weather will also cover the Indian hill states of Kashmir and HP. Light precipitation will start from Saturday, increasing on Sunday. 
Srinagar will be cloudy on the weekend with light precipitation on Sunday, day's high dropping to 10c on Suday after about 14/15c on Saturday. 
Sunday 7th, precipitation will also be covering Uttarkhand and West UP.

Delhi NCR and Punjab and Haryana will be partly cloudy on Saturday and Sunday. Night temperatures rising this weekend.
F-2 will approach the North India and Pakistan region from 9th February.

This time a different contest...Surely testing your skills...Your Meteorology Skill !!

You have to give the name of the City or Town , in India, which you think will be the first in the country to touch the 40c mark this year. Meaning it should be over 40.0c....
And the answer will be taken ONLY from IMD Stations and/or the Daily IMD Reports. (No other Source eg: AWS, ARG PWD etc will be considered)( Bhira (Mah) readings WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED).  

Answer will be brief: Name of City (State): only ONE CITY (With the State) permitted. 
Please give your name and your home town with your answer. 
Answer to the following E mail :

Contest closes on 12th February Mid Night. If, by chance, the 40c is reached before 12th February, the Contest stands cancelled.
If in doubt, ask only in Blog comments..( So as not to repeat the similar query by another).
Participation by all Vagarians is Compulsory.

  21st  July afternoon post Comparative rain till 21st morning: Panji 2525 mms ( 100 ") and Ratnagiri 2572 mms ( 102") cross 100&q...