Friday, July 19, 2024




 Extremely impressive cold night in the tropics of Queensland, Australia 🇦🇺

While a minimum of 0.5°C (33°F) might not sound that impressive... This is the coldest July night for this weather station, which has over 120 years of measurement. Remarkable.

Thursday, July 18, 2024

18th Night Post:

The low pressure  (BB 4) in the Northern Bay of Bengal has formed and lies at sea level as shown.


This has activated the West Coast Trough and also resulted rains in Vidharbh (Aundhi 11 cms,) and M.P ( Pachmarhi 9 cms) and  adjoining regions. 

Moderate-heavy rains to continue over this Region next 4 days.

As the remnant UAC moves West, Gujarat Region (Bharuch) and Saurashtra will receive heavy rains on 22nd & 23rd

Later, not Expected much from this system as it will fizzle out in the Himalayan Region by  23rd.

But the marginal All India deficit will not get worse nor improve next few days.


Mumbai: Continuing with getting fairly good showers this weekend.

Decrease in rain intensity after Sunday 21st.

Rainfall this season till 18th evening

Santa Cruz 1358 mms (+21%)

Colaba 1382 mms ( +25%).

Current rains improve lakes storage to 38. 5%...better than last year ( 37.5%).


Pune: A bit more frequent rains this weekend, than currently happening. Expectations can be a bit more at 15 -25 mms per day.  Cool days.

Pune has seen 359 mms ( +26%)  as yet.

Water dams storage also improving in dams around Pune.

Pawna and Andra at 36%


Sambhajinagar: Just enough rain this season with 230 mms (-5%). Crops are healthy and can survive another week with moderate showers. 

Expected around 15-25 mms per day next 4 days.

Goa: With having crossed the 2000 mm mark as we mentioned, at 2325 mms till date , Panjim is in good surplus at +37%.

Next 5 days,  Goa regions can continue moderate to heavy frequent showers at 50 -75 mm per day.


 Fresh Update by 10.30 pm ist Thursday 

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

 17th July

Mumbai/Pune to see more rains on 18th & 19th. 👇



--------------------👇

Interesting Figures

Kolkata has received only 300.6mm this monsoon till date, whereas Pune city total stands at 356.6mm so far.

This shows Pune city has received more rain than Kolkata this monsoon till date which is a very rare.

Fact by Dr.Vineet 

 16th July

Violent thunderstorms in kutch today 😳 


Courtesy Vag. Gaurav Raninga 

Monday, July 15, 2024

15th July...Goa statistics &Comparison from 👇

 
☝compilation and comparison, last 3 years for 45 days of the season. 

Source : IMD Goa





---------------------------‐‐---------------------
Gujarat Cloudburst...15th July.

Cloudburst event occurred in Gujarat's Umarpada (district surat),

whopping 247mm rain recorded here in just 2 hours today between 8 to 10am... today's total rain 347mm till 12 noon starting 6am as per GSDMA norms...with yesterday's 45mm rain, total cumulative rainfall during last 30 hours reaching 392mm ..!!!

SOURCE:GSDMA 

By Vag. Gaurav Raninga


 

Sunday, July 14, 2024

 14th July

Good rains tops Mumbai lakes to 29.7%  ! ( Last year this date 29.7%!)

Tamhini tops the list by recording 315mms

#Khandala: 264

#Matheran: 216

#Bhimashankar: 211


Saturday, July 13, 2024

 Posted 13th Night:

Outlook for Sunday 14th to Wednesday 17th:

An off shore trough along the West Coast is expected to bring good rainfall in South Coastal Gujarat, Konkan, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

Later, around 15th/16th, we can expect a Low to form (BB-3) in the Bay. This will enhance rainfall in Interior Maharashtra, Saurashtra ( Heavy on 18th) and Gujarat Regions..

Mumbai:

Sunday 14th: Occasional showers, heavy at times. Gusty winds.

Monday15th/Tuesday16th/ Wednesday 17th: Frequency and intensity of rains may not vary  much  compared to Sunday rains. Heavy rains in patches. Cumulative rainfall could be 100-150 mms on Monday/ Tuesday & Wednesday.

Mumbai Lakes can get good rainfall next week, and can bolster the storage to over 35%.

Pune: Light to Moderately good showers on Sunday and Monday, With increase in rains on Tuesday 16th and Wednesday 17th, it will be a cool day at 26c.. .

Goa: Very heavy and good rainfall expected in Goa the forecasted days till 17th..around 60-90 mms/day. Seasonal total can cross the 2000 mms mark .

Sambhajinagar: Medium to heavy rains daily .. 40- 60 mms cumulative from 14th to 16th. Expecting rainfall to decrease on 17th. Should help in the standing crops situation.

Gujarat: Next 2/3 days, South Coastal Gujarat can expect moderate rainfall around 10-12 mms/day rains along the Coast. More rains intensity from Wednesday 17th.

Saurashtra will be lashed by very heavy rains Starting 17th and more on 18th.

Bharuch: Light to medium rains till Tuesday...More rains, sometimes heavy on Wednesday 17th.

Day temperatures are now aroud 32c, may get cooler by 2/3 degrees

-------------------------

 Chennai SWM 2024 ( 448 mm Average )

Chennai City 395.4 mm

Chennai Airport 418.1 mm

TN state on the whole is on course towards 6th connective excess SWM season.  (2019-2024)

 13th July:Mumbai lakes at 25% Storage today

And rainfall last 24 hrs 👇


Ghat region of Maharashtra top 5👇

Thursday, July 11, 2024

11th July 


July being the wettest month of all four months in SWM , an excess July will be huge in quantum of rains

Monsoon circulation and rainfall to begin strengthening by 14/15 th July. A strong meridional shear in the vicinity of a strong monsoonal low level surge could give rise to strong low pressure systems around. Intense rainfall episodes can be expected from next week.

The upcoming active Monsoon spell could give excess rains for peninsular India and adjoining central India

 Vidharbha , Telangana, West coast especially Kokan along with western parts of MP and eastern Gujarat could be hotspots. In the entire west coast Goa, Maharashtra and Gujarat could be main areas of potential intense rain episodes. Subsequently, Godavari can swell.

Compiled by Vag. Gokul

Details on Sunday here

Wednesday, July 10, 2024

10th July Night:

Special for Mumbai Pune and Hill Stations 

Given the tricky and confusing weather trends last few days, Vagaries is attempting to make a bold estimate for Mumbai & Pune.

Mumbai Rains to increase in the coming days?

Weather forecast till Sunday 14th July:

Westerlies will strengthen again for the west coast, along with formation of the offshore trough. So, gusty winds expected along Mumbai Coast. 




Mumbai: Rains expected to increase gradually from Thursday 11th July. Frequent showers for Mumbai city/suburbs, sometimes heavy. 

Increasing frequency and intensity even more with heavier rains possible over the weekend ( 12th/13th/14th).

 Rough estimates: Around 100- 150 mms till 11th and 225-275/ mms more over the weekend. 

If it happens, Scruz can be in comfortable surplus, with seasonal total  reaching around 1200-1300 mms by Monday.

We may see some good increase in the water levels in the lakes to around 25% -30%.

Pune

Light good rains during this period. 

City/suburbs on Thursday and Friday. Weekend may see moderate showers with pleasant weather.

Around 10 mm from Thursday-Friday and 20-30 mm over the weekend

-----------------------------------------

Heavy rains expected for Konkan, Goa and coastal/Ghats of Karnataka.

Hill stations such as Lonavala, Tamhini, Mahabaleshwar will see heavy to very heavy rains during this period

Above 400-450 mms in next 4 days







Monday, July 08, 2024

 8th night ...11 pm ..Updated Nowcast for Pune Region




8th july




Mumbai's levels jump to 18.7%



*flop iit bombay AI technique

 *All models also couldn't forecast this...SSE to NNW movement coastal special patch
*Lets admit, Shows how challenging it is to forecast west coast Monsoon rains.

*No heavy rain forecasted by ECMWF,GFS or any models, nor vagaries  in the last 4 runs


Sunday, July 07, 2024

 7th July

With good rainfall in Bhatsa, 237 mms, Mumbai lake storage increases to 14.52%.

Pune Storage increases also 


Saturday, July 06, 2024

 International:

U.S. Faces Severe Heat.. 

See on World Weather News Page 

--------------------------------------------------------------

Mumbai:

The slow Monsoon run in Mumbai continues in July. 

Daily Rain 1st to 6th July:

 Scruz: June /July =443mms (-40%)

Driest June was in 1995 with 82 mms rain.

Colaba :June /July Total = 559 mms  ( -24 %).

Driest June was in 2014 with 55 mms in the whole Month.

The Graph below showing the daily rainfall at these Stations this year as on date, indicate the highest rainfall on a single day is just 80 mms at Colaba, and 70 mms at Scruz.( Vag. Ganesh informs)


Outlook:

Now, till the 10th, we can expect this same "occasional Showers" weather for Mumbai...around 20-30 mm/day..

Corresponding rain in Lakes have also been lesser the Normal...and Lakes show a very marginal rise to 10.88 % Storage Level.  ( 2023 =18%, 2022= 16%).

Pune

Pune has gathered excess rainfall till date with the June/July rainfall at 269 mms ( + 34%).

June was 249 mms ( Wettest June ever was 530 mms in 1991, driest 1.3 mms in 1947).

Pune can expect light rains in some parts on Sunday. Slight increase in rains on Monday and Tuesday, around 20-25 mms /day.


Chennai Special 

With rains being weak for north Kerala, consistent thunderstorms continue this Monsoon for Chennai region. 

Chennai SW Monsoon average from June - September is 448 mm

Total rainfall as of 8:30 am on July 6th, 2024

Chennai City 344 mm
Chennai AP 352 mm

Close to 80% of seasonal rainfall received with around 70% of the Monsoon season still left.

Wednesday, July 03, 2024

 3rd Night Post 


Monsoon trough is seen North of its normal position. Unfortunately the axis ( trough) shifted rapidly ( than expected) towards North.

Indicative of heavy rainfall in Gangetic Plains. 

Also subdued rains in Peninsula and M.P, Gujarat,  Maharashtra and Karnataka. 

Normally now, it can re-align Southwards on a few days. And resume normal peninsula rains.

Mumbai few showers,  in parts of city.

Lakes need to get heavier showers within 3/4 days.

Interior Maharashtra not much expected

Marathwada crops, seedlings in good shape now.

Sustaining period without rain : 5 days.



 

Tuesday, July 02, 2024

2nd July Night Post:

Mumbai Water Storage:

Good signs, as for the first time this year we see an rise in lake storage...to 7.15%


Lakes got moderate rains


This week,  Mumbai will get moderate occasional showers. Around 50 - 80 mms cumulative till Saturday. 

Slow improvement in lakes levels expected.

Pune:

Now, this week ( 3rd -6th) will see a little lesser rains, a bit warmer days.

Patchy local rains in parts.

Monday, July 01, 2024

1st July...


Mumbai:

June ends with 507 mms at Colaba ( -7%), and 347 mms (-54%) at Scruz.

As Vagaries mentioned 4 days ago, with some "end-of-the-month rain", the lakes would show some improvement in levels

The Month end levels are:

2024 =   5.4%

2023 =  10.88%

2022 =  10.59%


Next 4 days, 1st - 4th July, Mumbai will get occasional showers with heavy local downpours. Rain not very persistent. 

Around 30 - 40 mm/day on 1st/2nd.

An increase of rains, around 50-70 mm/day on 3rd/4th.

Cumulative around 150 mm on 4 days. 

Colaba may go into surplus rains (for seasonal average up to July 1st week) by next weekend.

Pune:

Light rains initially on 1st/2nd, then increasing showers on 3rd/4th.

Cumulative 20-30 mm on 4 days.

Marathwada (Sambhajinagar): Rainfall expected to be low till next 7 days at least.

Increase only after the 8th of July.

मराठवाडा (संभाजीनगर) : येत्या सात दिवसांपर्यंत पावसाचा जोर कमी राहील. 8 जुलैनंतरच पावसाचा जोर वाढेल.

Gujarat Region will see moderately heavy type rains next 4 days. Substantial increase in Bharuch region from 5th..especially heavy on 6th/7th.

  Extremely impressive cold night in the tropics of Queensland, Australia 🇦🇺 While a minimum of 0.5°C (33°F) might not sound that impressi...