Tuesday, July 31, 2012

The  "Monsoon Watch- August" will be published on Wednesday by 9.30 pm. Be sure not to miss it...would welcome comments, suggestion and views of every reader, expert or novice.


Pune to get a shower or two by evening before clearing in the night.


Actual Mumbai and Pune rainfall for Tuesday on Mumbai Page.
July total rains for Mumbai and surrounding townships on Mumbai Page:


The Monsoon axis has moved further Northwards. Heavy rains now expected (Wednesday's Forecast ) in the Himalayan foothills and Hilly states.
The west coast off shore trough expected to weaken rapidly within next 12 hrs as the contours start curving towards the east coast trough formed at the Eastern End of the Monsoon axis. 


Despite Tuesday's rain spell in Mumbai upsetting the day's estimate, the Wednesday Forecast put up yesterday remains valid.


Pune rains will decrease substantially after mid night (Tuesday). With Wednesday being cloudy and a few light passing showers.


No change for other forecasts put up for Wednesday.





Sunday, July 29, 2012

Rainfall from 8/30am -5.30pm Tuesday: Pune 49 mms, Lohgaon 27 mms, Mahableshwar 114 mms Satara 34 mms and Nasik 22 mms.


Heavy rains commencing over Mumbai, possibly for the next few hours..rains till 5.30pm were only 9.4 mms at Colaba,  10.2 mms at vagaries and 3.4 mms at scruz. Next few hours likely to cross 40-50 mms...Burst of rainfall is due to a temporary strengthening  (just over a small region) of the west coast off shore trough... posted at 5.45pm Tuesday..


Lake rainfall 24 hrs ended till 8.30 am Tuesday: (Mumbai Lakes) Bhatsa 38 mms, Vaitarna  147 mms, Modaksagar 74 mms, Tansa 38 mms, Vihar  10 mms and Tulsi 31 mms.
Mulshi (Pune/Lonavala)Lake measured 204 mms., Khadakvasla 122mms, Gunjwani 116 mms.
Mukane (Nasik): 101 mms.
Jayakwadi (Aurangabad) : 1 mm.




Rains lash Delhi NCR from Tuesday early Morning.
As the axis shifts North, the NCR got fairly good amounts with flooding in Gurgaon as reported by Vikas.
 Palam recieved 57 mms till 8.30 am Tuesday, Ayanagar 48 mms, Pitampura 23 mms, Gurgaon 28 mms , Sjung  9 mms and Lodhi 8 mms.Noida got 3 mms.

Vagaries had put up an increase from Tuesday night into Wednesday, taking due care not to rush into an early forecast.. but, the rains obliged 18 hrs earlier.


 Mumbai Page Updated with latest lakes storages and Maharashtra reservoir levels..and Tuesday morning rainfall.



Outlook For next 3 days, Monday, 30th July, Tuesday, 31st July and Wednesday 1st August:

Not a very august begining for the month...I do not know if I have got my basics right, but i see a break monsoon condition for Central, Western, Southern and peninsula India from Wednesday, 1st August.

Monday, 30th
Axis remains in the current position, along Northern Rajasthan/North MP/UP and W.Bengal....with the UAC weakening over N.Rajasthan. Embedded UAC over Up keeps the region active. Eastern off shore trough remains intact.
Heavy rainfall in the region where the 3 states of AP/Maharashtra/Chattisgarh merge. Some locations can get upto 100 mms in 24 hrs.The region around this area gets heavy rains, with Nagpur seeing some convective and heavy showers Monday and more in the night. 
Konkan sees it usual medium rains, with precipitation measuring between 20-40 mms at some stations along the coastal belt.

Tuesday 31st and Wednesday 1st Aug: 
MJO in our seas enters into a weak phase.
The axis shifts Northwards towards UP and Utteranchal. touching foothills of Himalayas by Wednesday. 
Delhi NCR could see precipitation on Wednesday evening as the rains approach the adjoining Utteranchal regions. Increase in rainfall over Central Nepal as rainfall rushes to Utteranchal and adjoining UP. 
We see rains decreasing from Chattisgarh/Vidharbha and Northern AP areas. 
Further decrease in Konkan from Monday levels by Wednesday. 
South,(Interior Karnataka and TN) the usual sporadic showers (some convective) and in very isolated pockets. 
No meaningfull increase in intensity in Gujarat and rest interior Maharashtra.

Pakistan: Next 3 days, We see some scatterd rains/thundershowers in Northern regions of the country. 
No meaningfull rains in Sindh region. In fact Hyderabad (Sindh) and Sukkur may be totally dry with no rains worth measuring.

City Wise Forecasts:


Mumbai: Monday: Partly cloudy. 3/4 showers intersparsed during the day. A few could be heavy in some regions. Rainfall decreasing from the current levels by evening...
Rain Amount from 8.30 am Monday-8.30am Tuesday: 15 mms.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Does not seem very good for the starting of a month...Partly cloudy with sunny intervals..decrease in rains by Wednesday. 
Rain Amounts: upto 10 mms on Tuesday and less on Wednesday.

Pune: Would remain cloudy, but clearing by evening/night. Drizzles in some regions in the day. Rain Amount: up to 5 mms/day.

Delhi NCR: Monday/Tuesday: Cloudy with a couple of showers in different areas of the region. A few areas could get a brief heavy shower. Rain Amount: 5-10 mms.
Wednesday: Rainfall increasing by evening. A few heavy thundershowers in parts of the region will indicate an increase. Rain Amount: upto 20-25 mms.

Hyderabad (India): Same status, except we can expect some light showers on Monday..otherwise decrease in rains on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain Amount on Monday : 5mms.

Bangalore: Except for that "local" convection shower in an isolated pocket, i would label the city as "dry". No substantial rains from an organised system or convectional front. Rain would be less than 5 mms/day.

Chennai: An odd shower in some parts would "humidify" the city. These convective showers are in no way from any organised or well formed system, but stray convective rains from the off shore trough. Weather would continue in the same pattern next 3 days as trough remains intact. 



Loads of information and updates coming on Vagaries...
Please be sure not to miss the following updates coming on Vagaries next 2 days...looking forward to your feed backs and views (its been hard work and effort to compile each one).  

1Monday evening, the Maharashtra and Mumbai Lake levels and lake rainfalls will be put up.

2Tuesday: The Monsoon Watch series on vagaries has become a routine and regular feature every year. Its popularity was gauged this year with a maximum of viewership.
Looking at the current situation, Vagaries has for the first time, come up with a mid monsoon "Monsoon Watch".
Please read Monsoon Watch-August, which will be up on Tuesday evening. It will be worth the reading as the "final salt" has been added by Rajan Alexander. And we all know, without the salt, the main dish is tasteless!

3Wednesday evening...City wise performance of monsoon till July end....with diagrams and graphs..trying to cover some cities.  
Please be sure not to miss the following updates coming on Vagaries next 2 days...looking forward to your feed backs and views (its been hard work and effort to compile each one).  

1.Sunday : Updating forecast for Early week by 10.30 pm tonite (IST).

2Monday evening, the Maharashtra and Mumbai Lake levels and lake rainfalls will be put up.

3. Tuesday: The Monsoon Watch series on vagaries has become a routine and regular feature every year. Its popularity was gauged this year with a maximum of viewership.
Looking at the current situation, Vagaries has for the first time, come up with a mid monsoon "Monsoon Watch".
Please read Monsoon Watch-August, which will be up on Tuesday evening. It will be worth the reading as the "final salt" has been added by Rajan Alexander. And we all know, without the salt, the main dish is tasteless!

4. Wednesday evening...City wise performance of monsoon till July end....with diagrams and graphs..trying to cover some cities.  



Saturday, July 28, 2012

Mumbai Figures updated for Sunday Morning..


This is not a forecast. Just what has transpired last 24 hrs.


Rainfall moving into Eastern Rajasthan and approaching Jaipur. And getting weaker in the Konkan. Patchy rainfall continues in the South. 
All "just what the doctor ordered" ! -:)


In the Konkan, rain was sparse on Saturday in the day, with Panvel (to be confirmed)16.0 mms, Ratnagiri getting 13.0 mms, Mumbai Vagaries 6.0 mms, Mumbai Scruz 4.9 mms, Mumbai Colaba 1.4 mms, Alibag 1.0 mms and Dahanu just 0.1 mm. 
Pune cloudy with Lohgaon measuring 1.0 mms till 5.30pm. 
In Vidharbha, Saturday day, Amravati notched up 31mms, Wardha 19 mms and Nagpur 5 mms.


Now, the UAC has moved, alongwith the axis to Central Rajasthan. A UAC associated with the axis lies over Jharkhand. An off shore trough runs down the East coast from thei UAC. Rainfall is seen along this trough line, more so in the sea. 
The west coast trough runs from Gujarat to Karnataka.



latest update by 10.30pm IST tonite


Friday, July 27, 2012



Synoptic Situation as on Thursday,26th, Night:


The Monsoon Trough runs through from Pakistan Punjab in the west thru Rajasthan (Jaipur) ,North MP and Jharkhand.
As a result, precipitation was fairly active from North Pakistan and the region North of the axis. In HP, Kangra recieved a heavy downpour of 115 mms. Utteranchal recieved very good rains and Jharkhand too had good rains last 2 days.
This was a result of an embedded UAC in the axis over Jharkhand.


Weekend Estimate: Friday, 27th, Saturday 28th and Sunday 29th July:


Friday: The Monsoon trough remains roughly in the same position. The off shore trough off the west coast remains weak.
Rainfall will be heavy in Western MP. Rainfall will also be concentrated in West UP, and the Delhi-Kanpur corridor could recieve some heavy showers. North AP coast, around Srikakulam and Vizag regions get precipitation.
Precipitation along the west coast will be medium, stations getting between 20-40 mms.


Saturday: Rainfall will be concentrated in Eastern Rajasthan and Central UP regions. Jaipur gets a good thundershower.


Sunday: In all probibility, an embedded UAC in the axis could bring very heavy downpours to Eastern and Southern Rajasthan regions. The Eastern end of the trough may host an UAC b Sunday.
Parts of UP could get good rains.
West coast rains decrease, as trough weakens.


On all 3 days, Barring Eastern Vidharbha and Konkan, all Maharashtra and Gujarat remain without any meaningfull rains.


Pakistan:
Vagaries had estimated a rise in rainfall in the North of the country in its last 3 day forecast. And increase it was, with Sialkot getting a good 129 mms.


But next 3 days, as we see no system moving into Pakistan. 
Friday/Saturday/Sunday will be almost dry and without any meaningfull rains throughout the country. Most cities, including Karachi, Hyderabad and Islamabad will be dry with no rains these 3 days. They may see a rise of around 2c in the day temperatures also.


City Forecasts for Friday/Saturday/Sunday:


Mumbai: 
Friday: Partly cloudy with sunny spells. Rise in day temperatures. 3/4 showers in different parts of city. Rain Amount: Around 15 mms.
Satellite towns too will get 3/4 showers in the day amounting to 15-20 mms.


Saturday: Partly cloudy with a couple of showers in different areas. Rain Amount: 5-10 mms.
Proportionately less rain in outer towns too.


Sunday: Cloudy with 3/4 showers. Showers scattered in the day.Rain Amount: 10-15 mms.


Pune: 
Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy with light rain in parts of city. Do not visulaise any substantial increase or momentum in rains. Rain Amounts: Upto 5 mms/day.


Surat:
Friday/Saturday: Partly cloudy with a couple of medium showers, in parts. Rain Amount: 5 mms. 
Sunday: Cloudy with a few showers Rain Amount could be around 10-12 mms.


Delhi NCR:
Friday: Cloudy day. Periodical Showers will be heavy in many parts of the region, concentrating in the Eastern Parts like Noida and Faridabad. Rainfall Amount 15-25 mms.
Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy with a couple of afternoon showers in different parts. No substantial increase in rains, though a shower may be briefly heavy. Rain Amount: Upto 10 mms.


Bangalore: 
Bangalore, our readers mention, is recieving showers scattered in different areas of the city.
Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy, with a couple of showers in different parts of city. Again, no meaningfull increase could be foercasted now. Rain amounts: Upto 5 mms/day.


Chennai: Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Hot and humid day. Sunday Thundershower likely in some parts by evening/night. They tend to drift in from the West, and could be heavy in some patches. Sunday Rain amounts :5-10 mms.


Hyderabad:
Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Partly cloudy with light rain in some parts. Rain Amount 5-7 mms/day


Mumbai Deluge 26th July 2005:
Meteorologically, how did it Happen ?...Those Interested see Mumbai Page ....

All India deficinecy till 26th July is -22%. End of July we will analyse the deficit and position of major cities..

Wednesday, July 25, 2012


Before reading this, please refer forecast put up yesterday (below) for easy tracking..


The Monsoon trough has started moving Northwards on Wednesday. Its all in line as per yesterday's estimate..


The monsoon is becoming active in the North. We had mentioned it would increase prominently in Utteranchal. Naini Tal and Chamoli recieved 11 cms each. 


Rains are also purported to  also increase in the Delhi NCR, and Gurgaon has recieved 4 cms..however Delhi proper had no meaningfull rain yet.


And west coast off shore trough has become feeble...low rains in Konkan today, wednesday till 5.30 pm saw Ratnagiri getting only 9 mms, and Panjim 2 mms...Mumbai 0.4 mms.
It is a 3 day forecast..and its the first day on Wednesday.


In Pakistan too, the rains have moved into the North, and Islamabad gets 12 mms today, and Muree 5 mms. Lahore got 4 mms of rain.
Sukkur, dry and hot shoots up to 43c.


The estimate for an UAC in the Bay remains the same..around 28th July.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Mumbai Page Wednesday Morning Rainfall Updated.

Synoptic Situation::


-ENSO: Remains neutral still. Though SST in the concerned areas (NINO 1 and 2) has increased by 0.2c, the conditions are just on the "threshold" of an EL-Nino. Not yet developed. --SOI is a bit better at -2.2.
-MJO: Most forecasts showing weakening MJO in our seas, weakening from 26th July... Wave shifting eastwards towards the SE Asia. More typhoons from The Pacific/S.Chine Sea as ITCZ gets active there..
-IOD: Neutral conditions. Likely to persist..
-Low in the 200 hpa jet stream moves North of normal position.


Outlook for next 3 days:


The Monsoon axis starts moving Northwards from Wednesday, with one UAC embeded in it around the MP region.
Next 3 days, rainfall will increase in the Northern regions like UP, North MP and Delhi NCR. Increase in rains will be prominent in Utteranchal, UP and Northern MP. 
Delhi NCR sees a moderate increase in rains. Averaging around 15-20 mms/day.
Haryana and Punjab see a moderate improvement in precipitation.


Gujarat and Rajasthan remain in the low rainfall region.
String Westerly winds blowing South of the axis, mainly thru Gujarat, Mah coast and Rajasthan.


The Southern states see no major change in the prevailing situation.


The West coast off shore trough weakens, in fact some charts show it curving in a "ridge" formation. Hence next 3 days may see a decrease in rains in Konkan. Stations here may get between 25-40 mms/day.
Interior Maharashtra, Vidharbha and AP will continue to recieve low rainfall, amounting to 5-7 mms/day, in isolated pockets.


Pakistan:
Precipitation moves into Northern Pakistan. Punjab(Pakistan) with Islamabad could see a moderate increase in precipitation, and Lahore may get thundershowers. 
But Central and southern regions (Sindh) remain with negligible rains. Dust storms or thunder squalls due to heat may be isolated there.


Next Forecast will be the Usual Weekend Forecast and will be up on Friday.


An UAC develops in the North Bay around the 28th of July...may track along the axis.
A pulse from  typhoon Vicente will travel to the Bay, and form a system around the 2nd of August...this time, West coast may probably get very active....





-Thanks for city details..please keep sending ..Rajan's 3 points being seen to understand movement of Monsoon axis this week...Preparing a Monsoon Watch for August..first mid season Monsoon Watch ever on Vagaries ..has become necessary.


Monday, July 23, 2012


BB2 merges with the monsoon axis.....and the axis slides Southwards. An associated axis trough also aligns itself with the sea level axis at 850 hpa.


On going thru the Monday's Forecast put up yesterday, we see the rains have weakened in Vidharbha. (Chandrpur which recieved 223 mms in the 24 hrs till 8.30 am Monday, and then recieved 41 mms in the day till 5.30 pm Tuesday. But, all other stations in Vidarbha except Yavatmal (19 mms) managed less than 10 mms on Tuesday. Bhopal saw 28 mms.
Other regions in AP and N.I. Karnataka too had reduced rains Monday.


But, the big let down was the Konkan and South Coastal Gujarat..where we had expected 40-60 mms in the Konkan. 
What actually was measured was around 20 mms in the Konkan stations (till 5.30pm..we have the night still).


Surat too did not recieve any rains on Tuesday. 
Mumbai had a couple of showers in the afternoon. But, rains were forecasted to increase in the evening, so the 5 mms recorded till 5.30pm could still add up to the forecasted 20 mms. expecting sharp showers at night tonite.


All other forecasts (cities and All India) remain valid for Tuesday and Wednesday.


A new Low is being much discussed and mentioned in comments. It may be noticed that vagaries has not even mentioned its possibility as yet....I am not too sure of its date and strength ..whether it will be a low or an UAC...shall put up when i am convinced.



Sunday, July 22, 2012


BB2 has now weakened, and is positioned over Central MP. Likely to merge with the monsoon axis by tomorrow.
Associated UAC S/SW of it will move west, and also dissolve.


Meanwhile, there was good anticipated precipitation in Vidarbha and Marathwada on Saturday night and Sunday. Very heavy rains were also reported from Vidharbha, North AP and parts of adjoining N.I. Karnataka...creating excellent soil moisture and crop conditions in the region. Had a talk with the farmers* in Marathwada (sunday evening) and they are happy the standing crop has recieved water. Crops in the region are almost 9" tall and now have recieved sufficient rains to cover another week.
(*Local farmers prefer direct talk on cell phones, and are not adaptable to seeing blog on net. They see it once in a few days and not convienent for them. Hence, only direct contact and personal interactions with them..)


Reports available say on Sunday, from 8.30am -5.30pm, Chandrapur got 190 mms, Yavatmal 113 mms, Nagpur 94 mms and Amraoti 40 mms.Mahableshawar got 45 mms in the day till 5.30pm.




Overall Forecast:


Monday: 23rd July: 
Rainfall weakens and decreases considerably in the Vidharbha region, but, as reported, the crops have received adequate moisture and should manage for another week now.


Rainfall (UAC) moves west, and Monday will see rainfall in Northern Mah. and adjoining Gujarat regions. Nasik district should get good rains on Monday, and south Gujarat (Surat) should get precipitation.


In AP, the rains decrease, with light rains in the Telengana region. Rainfall will be light to medium along the Monsoon axis line. some precipitation in MP and Jharkhand. Ranchi region can get some showers.
Konkan may not, get too heavy a rainfall. Precipitation along Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka may be around 40-60 mms.   
Except South Gujarat, rest of Gujarat state remains without any measurable rainfall.


Tuesday: 24th July:
Precipitation continues in the 40-60 mms range along Konkan/Goa and Coastal Karnataka. Rainfall prevails along the monsoon axis line. MP, adjoining Chattisgarh and Jharkhand region getting the bulk. Adjoining UP also can get precipitations. 
Light rains (upto 10 mms) in North AP and Marathwada. Decreasing rains in Vidharbha region.


Wednesday: 25th: Main rainfall concentration moves Northwards towards UP, where very heavy rains are expected. Rainfall patch moves closer to Delhi Ncr, and will be restricted more to the Eastern areas.
Nepal too gets typical monsoon rains. Konkan rainfall decreases.
Meagre rainfall (5-10 mms) continue in MP, Vidharbha and Saurashtra. 


Pakistan: Mon/Tues/Wed for Pakistan is almost dry weather. BB2 is fading, and the effect will be some rain in the extreme South/Eastern sindh regions on Sunday night bordering India (Gujarat).
Otherwise from Monday, Coastal Sindh regions and Karachi gets cloudy days, with very light drizzles in some isolated regions. Sukkur and Hyderabad will be cloudy on Sunday night. Monday onwards will be dry and hot. 
Even the Northern regions of Pakistan get very little rainfall these 3 days. 


Rainfall for Sindh region has been low this year. In June Karachi recieved 1 mm and Nawabshah, Sukkur and Hyderabad 0 mm. Highest in Sindh was Mithi with 28 mms.
July, till today (22nd) shows Karachi with 1 mm, Sukkur and Hyderabad with 0 mms. Highest in Sindh during July is Chorre with 23 mms. 


India City Forecasts:
Mumbai: 
Monday: Cloudy skies with a 1/2 showers initially. Rain increasing by afternoon/evening and 2/3 showers becoming heavy and frequent. Rain Amount: (8.30 am Monday-8.30 am Tuesday) around 25 mms.


Tuesday: Cloudy, with 3/4 medium showers intersparsed through the day. A couple of heavy showers during the afternoon. Rain amount: 25-30 mms.


Wednesday: Cloudy with 3/4 showers in the day. Rain intensity decreasing by evening hours. Rain amount: around 25 mms.


Satellite Towns  Thane, Panvel and Badlapur can get 50-60 mms/day for next 3 days...


Pune: Mon/Tues/Wed: Was hoping to put up a better forecast for Pune. 
Cloudy with light rains during the day. Some parts may get a moderate shower in the afternoon. Rain amount: 7-10 mms.



Surat: Medium to heavy rains on Monday. Day will be cloudy with showers. Rainfall decreasing by night. Rain Amount:8.30 am Monday -8.30am Tuesday) 20-25 mms.
Tuesday: Cloudy with 2/3 light to medium spells of rain in the day till evening. Rain amounts: 10 mms.
Wednesday: Rains decreasing on Wed. A sharp shower likely by evening, around 10 mms.




Delhi NCR
Monday/Tuesday: Cloudy day. Light rain in some parts expected. Rain amount 2-5mms.


Wednesday: Delhi NCR starts getting cloudy from wed, and thundershowers develop by aftrenoon or night. Rain showers in many areas by evening, cooling down the region substantially.


Bangalore: Nothing meaningfull to exclaim this time too:
Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday: Cloudy and pleasant with a few light showers in some parts. Rain Amount/day: 1-3 mms.


Chennai: 
Monday:Cloudy and stuffy weather. Thundershower by night in some areas. Rain amounts: 5 mms.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Cloudy to partly cloudy. Westerly winds will keep the day warm. Light drizzle in some areas. Negligible rainfall.


Hyderabad (India): 
Monday: Cloudy with light rains. Rainfall will be less compared to last few days, with rain amount at around 5-7 mms/day.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Cloudy, with just a drizzle in some parts of city. Day will be around 30c. Rain between 2-5 mms/day.


This week's rainfall analysis by GSB on Inter Active Page.
x------------------------------x---------------------------------x----------------------------x------------------------x----------------------x------------------------------------x------------------------------x

BB2 weakening over Central MP @ 5.30 pm IST (Sunday). Associated UAC in the S/SW of low, where most clouding is concentrated. Flow passing over N.Konkan can start by tonite towards the UAC.
Rural Marathwada, Aurangabad, and Western Vidarbha is recieving light to medium rains now..Farmers report of constant drizzle since 3 pm, good for crops now...

Saturday, July 21, 2012

BB2 Update: As at 5.30am IST, Sunday, the system is stationary over East MP and adjoining Chattisgarh, with a trough extending vertically Southwards. The North/South trough deepens off the TN coast on Sunday Morning.

BB2: Update at 11.45 pm IST Saturday. Situated at 998 mb over East MP, with clouding in the S/SW quadrant. 
AWC image superimposed by vagaries...Movement track shown...."X" marks fizzling out.




As BB2 moves W/NW, its precipitating good rains along.. During the day on Saturday, Angul in Orissa measured 100 mms and Gopalpur 8 cms. Hardoi in adjoining UP measured 7 cms on Saturday.


Inter Active Page on this blog has the latest 20th July, Update of the All India Rain Toppers of the Monsoon...Specially prepared meticulously by Pradeep for "Vagaries" and his own "Tamil Nadu Weatherman". Thanks Pradeep for the effort and Interesting List.

x---------------------------------x---------------------------------x---------------------------x-------x
We had anticipated a heat spell in sindh Pakistan and adjoining India (see vagaries forecast map), and hot it was indeed !
Turbat (Pakistan) soared to 49c !Dal Bandin was 44.5c and Nawabshah 42.5c. Hyderabad (Sindh) was 40c. 
In India, Saturday, Barmer (Rajasthan ) was hot at 40.6c, Jaisalmer at 39.3c and Hissar at 38.4c.

Rainfall spreading into Vidharbha and East Marathwada. 
On Friday/Saturday, The heavy rainfall predicted for Sunday in Northern AP has moved in a day earlier, on Saturday itself. Northern AP (Telangana) areas recieved good rains, with Golkonda topping at 163 mms, Hyderabad at 115 mms, Hakimpet with 95 mms and Khammam 44 mms. 


Vagaries did not predict the rainfall to reach as South as Hyderabad.


In Srikukakulam, Palakonda topped with 120 mms and Kalingapatnam with 115 mms.
And, while the AP rains have moved in a day too early, the rains for Vidarbha and Marathwada will be on date, Sunday.
Hyderabad will be cloudy with light rains, but some sharp showers in the evening.
Northern AP will get heavy rains on Sunday.

All India Forecast for Mon/Tuesday/Wednesday will be put up Sunday evening.

But, the rains for Konkan and Mumbai, will have to pushed a day late, into Monday.
Sunday's forecast for Mumbai stands revised to a Sunny spells and cloudy by evening. few afternoon showers in some parts : Rain Amount reduced to 12-15 mms.
Monday  should get more rain...(forecast will be put up tomorrow)

BB2: Update at 11.45 pm IST Saturday

In the meantime, till mid night today, see Space News Page for a very interesting piece on "The Habitable Worlds "in the Universe..
Position of BB2 as on 5.30pm Saturday, (IST).
IMD satellite image superimposed with vagaries Graphics.Shown: Movement till now, Expected Track, Monsoon Axis, UAC  and BB2.


Friday, July 20, 2012

Saturday Morning: BB2 moves slightly North, at around 22N at 5.30am IST at 998 mb
x--------------------------x--------------------------------x-------------------------x---------------x----x
IMD bulletin announces the formation of a Low (BB2) in the Bay. 


Currently BB2 is situated almost on Orissa (around 75% on land) with a portion in the Sea of the State.Its centre is almost ver Bhubaneshwar at 20N and is at 996 mb.
Expected to track W/NW on Sunday.
See forecast put up yesterday....


As expected, on Thursday/Friday the UP region recieved heavy rains..with Meja recording 187 mms, Chatnag 156 mms, Fatehpur 130 mms and Varanasi 70 mms and Lucknow 50 mms.
The region where the Low is persisting off Orissa, is also getting good precipitation, with Bhubaneshwar recieving 105 mms, Jagtisingpur 104 mms and Joshipur 78 mms last 24 hrs.


On Friday, Pune recieved the light rain forecasted, with the guage measuring 5.4 mms in the day till evening. However, the day was pleasant at 26c. Lohegaon AP was warmerat 28.8c on Friday.
Also Mahableshwar recieved 31 mms and Ratnagiri 16 mms till Friday evening.

See IMD deficit map on Current Page...


Hottest On Friday, 20th July: Omidieh in Iran sizzled at 52.4c, Abadan (Iran) was 51.6c and Basrah in Iraq reached 51.4c on Friday...That's Hot !!  

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Maharashtra reservoirs, Mumbai Lakes Position and Pune reservoirs levels updated...see Mumbai Page.


Synoptic Situation today (Thursday):


The Monsoon trough continues to run North of the normal position and runs along the Himalayan foothills. Meanwhile the off shore trough along the west coast remains strong due to Wednesday's embedded vortex. 


The Eastern trough has shortened and lies from Sikkim to the Bay.
The vortex has weakened on Thursday itself, weakening the off shore trough along the west coast. 


An UAC has formed in the North Bay, and is at around 500 hpa. 


It is likely to descend to sea level as a low by the 21st, Saturday, as a low at 998 mb. Should be positioned at around 20N, off the Orissa coast.


As it is likely to remain over the waters till Sunday, it could deepen to 996 mb, or even 994 mb by Sunday. Low will move west on Sunday/Monday and most likely fizzle out in the region around Vidharbha.


Once the low forms, we can expect the monsoon axis to slide southwards. It could be positioned from Pakistan thru Rajasthan thru North MP and Chattisgarh into the Low.(See Map)
Consequently, the West coast trough could strengthen and activate again.


Outlook Summery for Friday 20th/Saturday 21st and Sunday 22nd: 





Good Rains Likely in Vidharbha, Eastern Marathwada, Konkan, North interior AP, Chatiisgarh and Eastern MP
Heat likely in Rajasthan and adjoining Sindh (Pakistan)


Friday: The Monsoon Axis remains in the North, hence heavy rainfall is expected in UP. Region around Lucknow can recieve heavy rains on Friday.
Precipitation remains good in South Konkan/Goa, but decreases in the North Konkan region.


Saturday: As the UAC descends, rainfall in the SW quadrant of the UAC/Low increases. We may see some precipitation gathering strength in the North MP, and adjoining Vidharbha. Rains will be heavy in the Ramagundam region of AP. Light rains, upto 10 mms penetrating into Interior Karnataka and Madhya Mah.
NW India and Gujarat almost dry with no meaningfull rains.
Strong Westerly winds blowing in Saurashtra.


Sunday: Heavy rainfall area spreads a little to the west, with Vidharbha region and adjoining Marathwada and North AP getting very heavy rains. Madhya Mah too will get medium to heavy rains.
Rains will also increase along the Karnataka coast and entire Konkan belt. As the Monsoon axis moves south the off shore trough gains strenghth by Sunday.


Friday/Saturday/Sunday: For Pakistan, rains will be restricted to the Northern plains. Light rains in the North. Lahore can get some light rains.
Sindh will be dry and hot. Hot westerly winds will sweep the sindh regions, raising dust storms in some regions.
Karachi will get light drizzles, but Hyderabad will be dry, and day temperature could touch 41c. Sukkur will be dry and hotter with the day temperature at 43/44c.
I do not think there will be any effect of this low in Pakistan...but we will observe and follow the developments.


City Forecasts:


Mumbai: Gone are the signs of rainy and monsoon days..at least till Sunday !


Friday: Partly cloudy with 3/4 showers throughout the day, out of which a couple of them will be heavy in some parts of city. Rain Amount: 20 mms.


Saturday: sunny spells and partly cloudy by afternoon. showers by late afternoon/evening. But not persistent, and distributed in parts of city. Rain amount: 10-15 mms


Sunday: generally cloudy, with more frequent showers. Intensity increasing by evening, and getting heavier. Rain Amount: 30-35 mms.


Pune: Hate to put up such a miserable forecast for this city ....hopefully a better forecast from Monday !


Friday/Saturday: Partly cloudy. Few light showers or drizzles in some parts. Rain Amount: 5-7 mms.
Sunday: Cloudy in the day with light drizzle. A light shower expected in some parts by evening. Rain Amount 5-10 mms.


Surat: Friday/Saturday/Sunday: No definite indications of any meaningfull rains approaching..partly cloudy with upto 5-10 mms/day.


Delhi: Friday/Saturday might see light drizzles in some parts, more likely on Saturday afternoon. 
But Sunday will be dry and hot. Weekend temperatures to touch 40c and maybe cross 40c in NCR somewhere.


Bangalore: This city need more rains urgently...this is only an expression..and sadly the forecast is nowhere near it...Again, no rainfall increase seen these days. Just about 5 mms/day in some areas.


Chennai:  Not much rain expected this weekend for the city.


Hyderabad (India): Friday and Saturday will see light rains ,drizzle, in some parts, but a little increase in rains on Sunday. Maybe a sharper shower by sunday afternoon with rain amounts upto 10 mms.

Bolt from the Blue: Giant Flash of Lightning Seen in Saturn’s Storm..Latest from Space News on Page...Fantastic for those interested in Space Weather.

Current weather situation and city wise Forecast for the week end will be put up tonite by 10 pm....Mumbai's Thursday Forecast will appear in the box on the right side....rainfall updated on Mumbai Page...

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Heavy Rains have lashed Mumbai and Satellite towns around Mumbai on Wednesday...and Navi Mumbai and around are reaching the forecasted 100 mms for Wednesday !
As as on 10.10 pm it is pouring here at Mahalaxmi. Several reports are put up on the FB page...Northern suburbs report good rains today..and around 40-45 mms mms recorded in Northern Suburbs..till now.
Mumbai rain figures (8.30am)  will be put up on Mumbai Page by tomorrow morning ..11.30 pm figures : Scruz  64 mms till 11.30 pm tonite.


Pic sent by Abhijit from Badlapur on Inter active Page.....

Modokai? Its a new concept, just discovered in 2004 by a Japanese team led by T. Yamagata (that included a prominent Indian climatologist, Dr Venkata Ratnam), and its effects are still being studied. With Rajan's expertise and guidance, Rajan and myself  have prepared an introduction to this new event..namely
"Indian Monsoon: What’s brewing in the Pacific is more likely a Modokai than a normal El Niño."...published on Rajan's Take here....those interested in meteorology, must read through this article.


As put up by Vagaries on Sunday, 15th, the UAC from the Bay crossed into Orissa and tracked into Vidharbha on Monday. 


Nagpur too, got the forecasted showers on Sunday and Monday, with 45 mms on Monday alone, and 40 mms in the day on Tuesday. 






The Vortex (off the west coast) mentioned has formed on Tuesday, 17th , and resulted in the forecasted rains (for Monday) in South Konkan and Goa, with Tadpatri getting 130 mms, Panjim Goa recieving 116 mms in 24 hrs. Ratnagiri measured 106 mms, Rajapur 93 mms, Canacona and Quepen 90 mms. Ratnagiri had  62 mms again in the day on Tuesday.
So, the vortex is active off S.Konkan. 


Now, will it move to N.Konkan as we had anticipated for Tuesday night/Wednesday ? 
Should move, as the trough is holding on, and precipitation was fairly reasonable in Mumbai from Tuesday evening, 44 mms in Scruz and 26 mms in Colaba till 8.30 pm Tuesday.(Vagaries' put up estimate 40 mms till 8.30 am Wednesday).See Mumbai Page for daily actual readings


Almost all citiy forecasts put up on Sunday were upto the mark for Monday and Tuesday. Chennai recieved 12 mms against estimate of 10-15 mms), Bangalore AP got 8 mms (10 mms) and surat and Pune are expected to get rains on Wednesday. 


The forecasts put up on Sunday valid till Thursday (below in previous blog) regional, and city wise, holds good. (It may be appreciated that Vagaries' forecasts are put up after a lot of effort, hence requires minimum changes, unless absolutely required!)


Again, Vagaries' estimate (forecasted on 12th July) low will emerge in the Bay around the 20th. It could be around the central Bay region off the Orissa or North AP coast. Tracking will be NW, maybe along the monsoon axis "corridor". MJO holds on till around 25th July...
Readers well versed with Vagaries' style of forecasting , will remember having mentioned that a low or system always would tend to track along the Monsoon axis corridor, wherever it is located.


No change in Pakistan forecast (till Thursday). Sindh will be dry except for light rains along Karachi coast.
Hyderabad will be hot, with day temperatures around 40c, with hot winds. Sukkur will also be hot, around 42/43c, and hot winds. No rainfall expected this week.



For Gujarati Readers, a Translated version (from Akila , Saurashtra), appears on  Current Weather Page....



Sunday, July 15, 2012


When we talk about weak monsoons, let us first compare this year's figures with some of the other weak monsoon deficit years.

2009 saw the lowest rainfall (all India) in several decades. End of July in 2009 was at an unbelievable deficit of -47 %. It ended up with an end of season deficit of -28%. 
For an on date comparison of 2009, see Vagaries' Blog of this date here
On this page, Please move on to 16th July (2009) write up.
Check the rainfall figures for Gujarat on this date...havn't seen such figures in years.. 

1972 was also a drought year with the season's deficit at -24%. End July was at -31% in 1972.
The worst ever for drought ever in India was in 1877 when the monsoon deficit was at an ashtonishing -29%.

Current Weather:
Last few days, TN, AP and parts of Interior Karnataka got the much needed precipitation. As Venkatesh points out, it has reduced the deficit in the region and provided the much needed moisture in the interiors.
In TN, heavy rainfall was recorded in Alangayam  (dist Vellore) 11, Paiyur AWS (dist Krishnagiri) 9 and Vaniaymbadi (dist Vellore) 9, besides many station between 3-9 cms. With some rains, Chennai AP has crossed the 100 mms mark and is at 109 mms.

In AP, Chittoor (dist Chittoor) 13, Rajahmundry (East Godavari dt) 11, Avanigadda (Krishna dt) 10, Palamner (dist Chittoor) 10, Shriramsag.pocha (dist Nizamabad) 7 and several other stations below 7 cms.

Though Karnataka interiors did not recieve such heavy rains, at Bangarpet (Kolar dt) 8, Karwar 7, Manki (Uttara Kannada dt) and Hoskote (Bangalore rural dt) 6 each. A begining has been made with rains between 1-3 cms. Bangalore city got some rains, managing 12 mms, pushing up the season's total to 27 mms.

An off shore trough extends along the Eastern Coast of india, from the "low" over the NE States (the East end of the Monsoon Axis)crossing the coast into Interior TN. The trough encouraged and aided the formation of Thunderclouds in the Interiors of the Southern States due to drop in pressures at various levels.
The susequent rainfall along the trough was not predicted by any model, and formed as a result of the Eastern end of the Monsoon axis getting strong.

Outlook:Monday 16th:
Substantially reduced rainfall in TN and Karnataka. 
S.I. Karnataka will get some showers (10-15 mms) and Interior TN west of Chennai will get precipitation upto 15 mms. 
As the off shore trough off the west coast starts strengthening along South Konkan /Goa, medium/heavy precipitation expected in the region.
West Vid could get light to medium showers in the day.

Tuesday :17th
The off shore trough along the west coast extend upto N.Konkan, while, and UAC embedded in the Eastern coast trough moves West from Chennai (inland).S.I. karnataka gets light rainfall.
Heavy rain/Thundershower in Nagpur on Tuesday night, extending into Wednesday morning.


Wednesday 18th: 
Reduction in rains in Karnataka and TN. An off shore vortex could form off the Mumbai coast on Wednesday. Stations along Konkan will get between 100-150 mms.
Precipitation upto 15 mms expected in Vidarbha on Wednesday. South Interior Mah could get rains upto 30-40 mms.

Saurashtra region does not get any meaningfull rains on these 3 days.

Rains in N.Pakistan will decrease from Tuesday.Light rains along Sindh Coast will prevail till Tuesdaywith Karachi getting light rains. 

City Forecasts for Monday16th/Tuesday17th/Wed 18th:
All City Rain Amounts 8.30am-8.30am next Day:
Mumbai: 
Monday: Cloudy morning. A couple of sharp showers in the afternoon. Passing showers in some parts in the late evening/night. Rain Amount: 20-25 mms
Tuesday: Overcast morning, with 2/3 showers in the day. Rainfall increasing by evening. Heavy rains at night. Rain Amounts: 40 mms. 
Wednesday: Cloudy day with frequent showers, at times heavy in the afternoon. Heavy rains with thunder on Wednesday night. Rain Amount: 60 mms.
Satellite Towns like Panvel and Navi Mumbai could get heavier rains on Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly crossing 100 mms on Wednesday.


Pune: Monday partly cloudy with light drizzles. 
Rainfall shows a slight increase from Tuesday, with a heavy shower expected in the evening/night.
Wednesday: Overcast cool day. Several light/mdium showers with rain amount around 20-25 mms.

Surat: Monday/Tuesday: Cloudy with a few showers in the day. Rain amounts 10 mms/day.
Wednesday: Overcast with heavy showers with thunder. Increase in rain amount to 40 mms.


Delhi/Haryana: A thundershower in some parts on Monday. Rain Amount: 5-10 mms. Tuesday/Wednesday will be almost dry and partly cloudy.

Chennai: 
Monday: Could get a shower by evening.
Tuesday: A few showers in the daytime, with rainfall amounting to 10-15 mms.
Wednesday: Cloudy with light drizzles.

Bangalore: 
Monday: Light showers possible with a cloudy day. Rain upto 10 mms.
Tuesday: Cloudy with light rains in the day.





Saturday, July 14, 2012


Is India Water Starved ?


Come Monsoon, and every Indian looks up to the skies, checks the forecast models, measures and checks every possible parameter, from the Pacific Ocean water temperatures to the High pressure off the Australian Coast. All and sundry are talking about an "El-Nino" or a "Low Pressure" having formed somewhere...(on asking someone what is a Low Presuure, the reply I got was "an area of Low Temperature forming clouds"). 


Its always good to know whats coming and how much is coming. 
But why is it that we are so much, in fact totally depended on these 4 months of Monsoon rains. 
In the event of a Monsoon failure, which could mean a mere 20% deficiency, our economy is hit, inflation rises and rural capacity declines to hit the FMCG production lines. 


Is this worthy of a growing super economy? Have we over-rated ourselves ?


The obviuos solution is prudent and honest water management. Indians are very capable and intelligent enough to plan and re-organise the country's water resources. They, or any officials do not need to travel abroad to "learn" and "study" these things.


So, what's the way out of this dependency ?
Make Water a National Asset. Remove or dilute the State's monopolistic control over "their" waters. 


India gets more than sufficient rainfall, 120 cms annually, against a Global avaerage of 100 cms. India is NOT a water starved country ! Even a deficit of 20% ( official Drought Figure) would bring 96 cms rain ! 


As most of this rain is in the 4 months from June- September, it is necassary to prudently store and conserve this water to prevent floods and drought. Store the waters in reservoirs and enhance irrigation needs. The U.S. has stored water in dams for more than 2 years !India has barely enough to meet 1 year's requirement. 
Storage in a systematic manner is also a must, as India also banks on hydro-electric generation. Can we even afford a shortage of electricity ? What happens to our promised 8% and above growth rate ?


Change crop patterns susequently and, thru proper planned irrigation, increase crop out put.
I kg of rice needs 4200 ltrs of water, 1 kg of wheat requires 780 ltrs and sugar cane (sugar) much more. With knowledge of stored water capacity, crops can be planned well in advance before sowing.
Unless the poor farmer is guided, how is he going to manage his crop planning. He does not have a drawing board to make short term and long term plans, he has no access to weather know how, and does not even know tomorrow's weather eventuality. 


Urban centres cam play a very crucial role. Proper planning by the local bodies, as well as rain water harvesting is a must. 
Chennai has set the best example in this. 
Mumbai needs to first repair its "thousands" of leakages in the pipelines bringing water to the city from the Lakes.


Only a devoted and mature policy and attitude can end India's water woes..other wise...



Comments and views most welcome, or should I say, necassary.


Some excerpts taken From "The Business Standard"...





Thursday, July 12, 2012

Mumbai Page updated upto Saturday Morning..Vagaries Forecast translated to Gujarati   in Saurashtra Press..see Page.


Changing Topics..Something Totally different..Mysterious Sounds Made by the Aurora Borealis...See Space News Page...


Outlook for the weekend: Fri 13th/Sat 14th/Sun 15th:



The Monsoon Axis has shifted to the Himalayan Foothills. For the regions South of the axis, it means a weak Monsoon Condition. 
Weak monsoon conditions for the interior Peninsula and the west coast, and eastern coastal regions.


Rain fall will decrease substantially in the regions South of the Punjab/Haryana/Delhi/UP W Bengal line. 
Interior Mah, Interior Karnataka, Saurashtra remain almost without any meaningfull rains. (See Aurangabad district Page)


It also translates to a very heavy rainfall to the Sikkim and NE States, hampering relief work. Punjab regions too get heavy rains on Friday.


Outlook For Mon 16th/Tues 17th/Wed 18th:
An UAC is likely to move into Orissa on Sunday, and move NW thru the Orissa/East Vid/Chattisgarh region on Monday, 16th. Seeing the situation, the monsoon axis may slide down South (upto Rajasthan) again by mid next week. West Coast trough possibly gains from Tuesday 17th.


Meanwhile, the MJO seems to be "holding" till the 22nd July at least. Could expect a Vortex off Mah.coast around Wednesday. A low off the Orissa coast could be expected in the Bay late next week.
Shall monitor and keep posting.


In Pakistan, the Monsoon will bring Precipitation in the North. Lahore can get heavy rain on Friday evening night. 
Karachi will have a cloudy weekend with light drizzles in some parts. Monsoon has moved into the region (See Current Page Map). Strong SW winds likely next 2 days.
Very strong SW dust raising winds are likely in Southern Sindh on the weekend.




Week End City Forecasts:


Mumbai:( maintained the same as put up yesterday,added Sunday today)
Friday: Partly cloudy morning, and 3/4 (a couple heavy) showers post noon. Rain Amount 8.30am Friday-8.30am Sat: 10-15 mms. 


Saturday: Decreasing Rains. Hot sunny spells, with short cloudy periods. Few showers with rain amount till Sunday 8.30am :upto 10 mms.  


Sunday: Sunny spells in the morning and partly cloudy later. A couple of Showers. Rain amounts 8.30am Sunday -8.30 am Monday: 5-10 mms.


Pune:
Friday/Saturday/Sunday: What do i Forecast ? Nothing to shout about, Same. partly cloudy and light drizzles with rains upto 5 mms /day.


Surat: Also nothing much to cheer for the weekend. Partly cloudy with some showers, upto 10 mms /day.


Delhi: 
Friday, Delhi gets a few showers heavy in some parts, cloudy day. From Friday night, Delhi and Haryana get good rains till Mid day Saturday. 
Decreasing rains from Sunday.


Bangalore: Partly cloudy with sunny spells. Nothing to cheer for the city...light drizzles for the weekend. Rains around 5-10 mms/day.

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Mumbai forecast For Thurs/Fri/Sat with Thursday Morning Actual put up on Mumbai Page...Note the rise in pressure on Vagaries' Reading Page !

Put up on Inter Active Page:Pradeep's compilation of All India Toppers as on 10th July 2012:
See Mumbai Page for Maharashtra and Mumbai Reservoir Levels as on 10th July:
Loads of Information for Vagaries' Readers as on 10th July !!

The SW Monsoon has covered the country today, 10th July.
BB1 is moving West, and is positioned over the West MP/Gujarat/adjoining Rajasthan region. Though not very deep, it is 994 mb, but the associated upper air circulation is extending upto 500 hpa. 



The clouding is concentrated in the Western Quadrant due to the favourable Lifted Condensation levels in the region over East Gujarat.

But, the North Konkan region was convienently by passed on Tuesday. 


On analysis as to why this happened, We can see from this image (above) of Tuesday morning, that the Maximum Level of Free Condensation has risen to over 5000, considered un favourable for immiediete cloud formation. But this can always change rapidly with good moisture incursions.

On Monday/Tuesday the precipitation in the areas forecasted by Vagaries(barring Konkan)has been on expected lines. Very heavy rainfall of 216 mms was recorded at Garhi in East Rajasthan. Banswara recorded 175 mms. Ujjain, where Vagaries had predicted very heavy rains, saw 102 mms, and Narsingpur 95 mms. Nearby Rewa saw 42 mms.

Would expect BB1 to move North/West and fizzle out over the Kutch/Rajasthan region.
Very heavy rains expected in Kutch on Wednesday and Thursday. Regions North of Ahemdabad will also get heavy rains next 36 hrs. 

Alongwith the system the Monsoon also moves westwards into Pakistan's Sindh Coast. The Monsoon should be on KHI by Thursday, and as mentioned yesterday, Karachi should get showers by Wednesday.

City weather in some time...and Maharashtra and Mumbai Water levels....later tonite








The UAC mentioned earlier has descended as a low around the MP/Gujarat/Rajasthan Border. Associated clouding is seen in the satellite image, mostly in the SW Quadrant in Gujarat. (BB1). (Ananth, I think you are bringing in the luck)

Clouds and precipitation are seen moving towards the low along the South Gujarat coast. Most of the "rush" of clouding is above the Maharashtra border, just about "avoiding the Konkan Coastline" as of Tuesday afternoon.

Rain can be seen in North Gujarat, and adjoining MP...but not along Konkan as yet...

Lets see and observe the low throughout the day today..and discuss tonite..those on Fb please come on line for discussion in the "Vagaries of the Weather" group....@ 10 pm 


Also will put up on blog tonite..