Blog update tonite on Mumbai outlook and NEM...by 10.30 pm IST..

Super Cyclone Phailin was at it. Aiming at the East Coast and hurtling towards it at 210 kmph..enough to cause major destruction and loss of lives.
Excellent preparedness by authorities and timely warnings from IMD saved major damage and saved loss of lives...IMD did a very good job in accurate predictions and tracking estimates..Kudos !

Neeraj gives some details from Nepal in "comments"....Raining and overcast.
Kathmandu airport received 6 mms rainfall till 8 pm and the day's high was 19.8c. Current temperature at 5 pm 17.0c.
Sunday, as the system mived North into Jharkhand and Bihar, Jamshedpur got 99 mms and Ranchi 43 mms till 5.30 pm (9 hrs).

As on 8.30 am IST Sunday:  Banki ARG 381 mms, Balimundali 305 mms, Ranpur 296 mms, Chaibasa 199 mms.
Bhubaneshwar has recieved 169 mms, Keonjhargarh 150 mms,  Chandbali 123 mms,Puri 119 mms,  Balasore 110 mms, Paradip 76 mms and Sambhalpur 30 mms.
More from Arpit: G.UDAYAGIRI-AGRO- 243 mm 
KHURDAH- 169 mm ,SHYAMAKHUNTA-AGRO- 167 mm 

MAHISAPAT- 145 mm, KENDRAPARA- 97 mm

Rain in Odisha diagram from Rohit:

Posted on Sunday Morning at 8.30 am IST

As Cyclone "Phailin" moves Northwards, 
Heavy rainfall Warnings for Bihar, Sikkim, North W.Bengal and Central and Eastern Nepal.
Very heavy rains in these regions may precipitate around 100-200 mms in 24 hrs, causing local flooding of regional rivers in Jharkhand and Bihar.

Posted @ 8.40 pm IST Saturday

"Phailin" located at 19N and 85E, has stalled in this position since 5 pm IST to 7.30 pm IST. In that period, it has weakened considerably, and at 8 pm IST, is located at 19N and 86E, just 20 kms South of Gopalpur. Core pressure is 938 mb and winds at 215 kmph. Still just within the official Cat 4 stage.

Presuming the resumed rate of 20 kmph tracking, it would have crossed the coast between 8.30 pm IST and 9 pm IST pm IST.
It is very very difficult to be precise and absolutely accurate for landfall without a proper defined centre. 

In effect, it could be said to have now crossed into land South of Gopalpur between 8.30 pm IST and 9.00pm IST Saturday !!. 

Link of Landfall sent by Akshay Deoras

vagaries would like to reiterate, that this blog had first mentioned the formation of this storm, and predicted its crossing North AP/Odisha coast as early as 3 rd October. This was mentioned in the NEM Watch -2, published on the Current weather page.
susequently, since 8th October, as soon as it attained strength, it can be seen on blog articles that vagaries was consistent in warning named districts in AP and Odisha like Srikakulam, Vizag and Ganjam, Bhubaneshwar and Gajapat.A map of possible path was put up on 9th.
Readers have inquired directly and thru several SMS messages and have taken this warning, and sent warnings and alerted their friends in Odisha and AP..Feels good to have been of help  :-)

Super Cyclone "Phailin" to make Landfall between 6 pm and 6.30 pm IST..now located about 25 kms Southof Ganjam (approximate on Sat imagery)..as on 5.30 pm..
Currently at 931 mb and 230 kmph winds 
Image below is of 5 pm IST...

Super Cyclone "Phailin" Update @ 1.30 pm IST

Rains overnight till Saturday Morning: Gopalpur 56 mms, Cuttack 33 mms, Bhubaneshwar 60 mms, 

Located at 18.2N and 85.5E, it has maintained same strength at 920 mb and 260 kmph. 
Now, approximately 110 kms from Land , it can cross the coast ( Just South of Gopalpur) at around 7 pm IST, seeing the current speed of tracking. Before hitting land, clouds will get concised, and system will weaken rapidly on Land. 
The movement after landfall will be almost Northwards. 

This is due to the active WD now in the North. Last 24 hrs ended Saturday morning, there was good rainfall in Punjab  with Amritsar getting 67 mms, And in HP Dharamsala got 56 mms, Manali 14 mms, Delhi SJung got 39 mms, Palam 22 mms and in West UP, heavy rainfall in Hindon of 54 mms, and Meerut getting 13 mms..Jammu got 9 mms. Many places in the region recorded upto 10 mms of rain.

Next Update at 5.30 pm IST
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Super Cyclone "Phailin" to strike North AP/Odisha Coast on Saturday:  (Update @ 10.30 am IST):  

"Phailin" at 918 mb and winds at 260 kph, is Categorised at 5. 

The eye is stable no doubt, but very strong convection in the eye walls are again producing violent thunder storms around the eye, and has formed a broken ring around it. 
If, (doubtful), a second eye replacement takes place, the system will weaken 10 notches by landfall.
If not, it will remain at current strength, and strike North AP/Odisha coast at 920 mb and 260 kmph wind force.That is itself devastating !

Wind shear in the SW and South quadrant has increased to 40 kts, so translating to more vigorous thunder storms in that quadrant.(See IR BD Image).

Next Update @ 1.30 pm IST

Latest Update on Cyclone at 10.30 am IST

Posted on Friday @ 11.40 pm IST:

Super Cyclone "Phailin" Core Pressure drops further to  915 mb with core winds at 270 kmph !!
Located at 16.8N and 87E.....

Expected intensification which spurted after recycling of eye, would "stabilise" now onwards. This is also justified by the fact that the difference between cloud tops in the eye  (-21c) and outer clouds (-80c) has narrowed from the previous 80c difference. 

The rainfall rate map shows the coastal regions have started receiving rains at at least over 25 mms/hour. 

Expected to reach the Odisha coast by Saturday afternoon/evening. On reaching land, the cyclone will be around current strength. 
The likely strike area is likely to be near Gopalpur . Gopalpur, Bhubaneshwar and Cuttack are in the heavy rainfall and winds zone. Besides this, Srikakulam district should be alerted for heavy rans and winds.
Rainfall will be extremely heavy in the strike regions, where the precipitation may be around 250-300 mms in the first 24 hrs.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted on Friday @ 8.30 pm IST:

Super Cyclone "Phailin":...Its Cat 5 !!

As mentioned, "Phailin" original eye was absorbed by the outer ring, and subsequently we saw a decrease in intensity from 930 mb earlier to 935mb. Winds also reduced marginally during this time.
However, the replacement cycle is now almost completed, and a new eye is consolidating itself.
This would encourage the re-intensification of Phailin in the next 12 hrs. Very rapid intensification has resumed, and current core pressure is estimated at 920 mb...and winds at 260 kmph...satellite image visuals and calculations depict a slightly stronger system.
Location: 16.7N and 87.3E...

Tracking NW, and expected to centre on AP/Odisha coast with a greater intensity. Centre will cross land around Saturday evening, BUT, storms and winds will commence by morning !

Tracking NW, "Phailin" will move towards the AP/Odisha border. Srikakulam, Vizianagram and Vizag District (AP) should be seriously alerted. And Gajapati and Ganjam Districts of Orissa should be alerted...and all regions along North AP and Odisha coast. Damage will be maximum.
Please consult and adhere to Local authorities warnings !
Note, the cyclone will weaken very rapidly on crossing land, and move in a N/NW

I personally feel that this storm has been underestimated by IMD...

Quoting from ToI: 
"The weather office may be underestimating the severity of a cyclone which is hurtling towards the east coast, a meteorologist warned on Friday."
Cyclone Phailin is forecast to hit the coast between Kalingapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and Paradip in Odisha late on Saturday with a maximum wind speed of 220kmph (135mph), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its latest bulletin.

And this: "Phailin is already worse than what the IMD is forecasting. A recent satellite estimate put Phailin's current intensity on par with 2005's Hurricane Katrina in the United States," said Eric Holthaus, meteorologist for Quartz, a US-based online magazine which covers global economy-related issues.

"Everything I know as a meteorologist tells me this is the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane — among the strongest on earth in 2013. That would mean Phailin could be the strongest cyclone ever measured in the Indian Ocean."...??