Tuesday, July 30, 2013

BB-8 Report as on 31st Wednesday Night:

BB-8 moves Westwards as forecasted yesterday. Positioned over Eastern MP, it has considerable clouding fuelled by very strong Westerlies , in the SW quadrant.
The heavy rainfall, which has occured, is occuring and will occur tomorrow, has not diverted from our estimate.
System expected to contine moving West, and weakening to 996 mb. 

Thursday: Districts of Aurangabad and Nasik watch out for heavy rains, and Surat, Bharuch and Navsari districts on Thursday evening. Rains >100 mms. Pockets get >150 mms.

Friday: Districts of Rajkot, Surendranagar and Jamnagar will receive heavy rains. Rest pf Gujarat too receive moderate rains. 125-150 mms in some pockets.
Eastern parts of Mahrashtra start getting reduced rains.

Cloudiness and patchy thunder showers may creep into Sindh on Friday/Saturday. More details as situation develops.

Maintaining Mumbai Forecast of rains from Wednesday night. Around 50 mms on Thursday and reducing from night.

x-------------------------------------------x---------------------------------------------x---------------------------------x Thane District Rainfall Diagram from Rohit Aroskar and Table from Puneet Bangera...See Mumbai Page:

Super Pic of Kolkata Sunset by Santosh Subramanian...Interactive Page
x------------------------------------------x-------------------------------------------x------------------------------------x BB-8 Report as on 30th Tuesday Night:

BB-8, slightly deepened at 992 mb, now centred as a depression at 22N and 85E. System is expected to move Westwards.The associated Upper Air circulations extend upto 700 mb. 
The associated clouding is in the W/SW quadrant. The region of heavy effective rainfall currrently includes S.Chattisgarh and adjoining Vidarbh.

Wednesday, heavy rainfall moves westwards into Vidarbh and adjoining Marathwada. Very heavy rains are possible over Chattisgarh, Eastern Vidarbh and spreading into Marathwada. 

Thursday, heavy rainfall over Marathwada and North Madhya Maharashtra and adjoing Southern MP.Districts to look out for heavy rainfall Nasik, Dhule, Jalgaon, Buldana and Akola.Rain amounts upto >100 mms expected.
Heavy rains also likely in Aurangabad district.
Eastern Gujarat districts of  Dang, Tapi, Vadodara can expect heavy rains. Moderately heavy rains in Bharuch and Surat Districts. 50-60 mms expected in Surat and Vadodara.

Heavy rains may increase over North Konkan and Mumbai from Wednesday night. Rain amounts increasing to about 60-65 mms on Wednesday night thru Thursday daytime.

31 st July Mumbai Readings on Page by Abhijit Modak and Lake Levels from Jayesh Mehta

Sunday, July 28, 2013

  Lake Levels from Jayesh Mehta on Mumbai Page 

More information From Rohit on Stats and Analysis Page

All India SWM Toppers from 01.06.13 to 28.07.13 - Hulikal crosses 6000 mm in just 58 days...Published on 28thJuly on Pradeep's Page.


Posted Sunday Evening: Estimate for 29th Monday, Tuesday 30th and Wednesday 31st July



1. Axis shifts Northwards from Monday.
Very Windy along Maharashtra coast and in Madhya Maharashtra.
2. Next 2/3 days, very heavy rainfall regions indicated (green), medium Heavy (Purple) and Moderate (Blue).
3.Southern Rajasthan/Adjoining Gujarat (Southern Udaipur District) gets heavy rains for a day.
4.West coast upto Surat, bit more active on Tuesday (40-50 mms at some stations).

Mumbai gets chance to catch up on 2000 mms on Tuesday. Tuesday sees a slight increase over Monday, with 30-40 mms on Tuesday. Will it reach 2000 mms before 30th morning then ?
Delhi NCR sees some heavy showers on Tuesday night.

Nagpur gets moderate showers on Monday, and rains decrease thereafter.

Karachi and Southern Sindh Cities have hopes of Thunder Showers till Monday . Nawabshah too, may hold on hopes till Monday.

Karachi AP has received just 4.4 mms in July this year. Karachi Masroor has received 0 mms !Jue was just 1.1 mms at Karachi AP. 
Sukkur 4 mms and Hyderabad 1 mm. June was 0 mms.
Highest in Sindh is Mirpur Khas with 24 mms.
In fact, the SWM advance line is stuck, and advance is resisted by weak systems.

Kathmandu has crossed its normal rains for July. With 401 mms (Normal 363 mms). City has got well distributed rains this month. As the month closes, we see some more rain early next week, with some sharp showers on Tuesday and Wednesday (>25 mms). The axis position is gong to be favourable, as has been this month.

Today @ 7.30 pm exclusively in Vagaries Pradeep page and Tamil Nadu Weatherman for the fastest 6000 mm this SWM and all India toppers with minimum 4000 mm cut-off and State wise toppers.

Mumbai Scruz finding it more and more difficult to beat the all time Fastest 2000 mm Record...Now just 54.4 mms away and 2 days remaining...But we have estimated Lesser rainfall from Sunday evening..??

BB-7 Moves West, now over MP, and weakens. Decreasing Rainfall in the rear (East) of the system..The other UAC (BB-6 remnant) has moved  over Rajasthan and weakened.

Friday, July 26, 2013

BB-7 still over Jharkhand as on Saturday evening. UAC moves over Rajasthan.
Heavy rainfall in forecasted regions forecasted on Saturday : Malda and Bhopal 4 cms, Udapur,Chittorgarh, Rewa (Udaipur Dist) and Rewa 3 cms..Posted Saturday Night


Required To break Fastest 2000 mms Record for Mumbai Scruz: 58 mms in 3 days !

Weekend Outlook for 27th and 28th July:

The short lived BB-7 , now over Northern Bay, will move W/NW into MP. Short lived, as it is expected to fizzle out by Sunday over MP. Weak because it is likely to contain its precipitation over a smaller region. 
It may not even activate the west coast trough.
This sytem, BB-7, (dont know whether I should number it at all), will keep the axis a bit South of its normal position.
But, as mentioned, if it fizzles out, and only an UAC survives as a remnant, then the axis moves North again from Monday.

West coast shore trough may tend to weaken from next week, and in absence of any system in Bay, East Coast trough would not exist.

A chance of A Low forming in Bay on 1st August.

27th Saturday, as the system moves inland, : Heavy rains expected over Northern Chattisgarh and adjoining East MP. Districts of Itarsi will be affected. The Itarsi-Amravati line  will recieve the maximum rains.
Due to upper air vortex, Udaipur district or nearby regions can get heavy rains on saturday evening.
Moderate rains over North Konkan and Coastal Karnataka (40-60 mms) in many places.

28th Sunday, heavy rains shifts West into MP, with heavy falls in MP. Districts of Indore, Bhopal and Ujjain face heavy showers.

Nagpur gets showers increasing on Sunday. Some heavy and with thunder. 25-30 mms possible.

Mumbai: 4/5 showers, of 5-10 minutes durations, so passing types.Rain amounts 20-25 mms.
Sunday: Occasional showers, but decreasing by night. Rain amount 10-15 mms.
Rainfall decreasing from Monday.
Pune will be cloudy with light showers in some parts on Saturday, and decreasing rain with partly sunny day (warmer) on Sunday.

Surat will get few passing showers on Saturday, but a marginal increase in rains on Sunday, with Sunday measuring upto 25-30 mms.

No meaningfull rains and hot in Chennai
No real good news for Bangalore. With not much of rain seen this weekend.

Delhi too gets the odd scanty shower in some parts. But rainfall increasing on Monday.
For Kolkata, this "couple of Thunder Showers" trend continues in the weekend, with upto 20 mms/day.

Some Spot thundershowers possible in a few palces for interior Sindh. Karachi has an odd chance of a shower on Sunday evening. Dadu/Nawabshah/Sukkur or vicinity can get a thunder storm in the evening.


Friday's Maximum Temperatures


Lake Levels om Mumbai Page ..by Jayesh Mehta

Hulikal crosses 5000 mm in just 53 days and analysis of fastest 5000 mm in last 5 years...Published today. See Pradeep's Page
Is Mumbai in for the fastest 2000 mms ever ? Will it beat the previous record of 60 days this year ?
 

Mumbai Santa Cruz total rain 1935 mms till 26th July Morning.
 

Will this year be the earliest 2000 mm (fastest) ever ? 
The current record for the fastest 2000 mms at Santa Cruz was in 1965, when it touched 2000 mms on 30th July, in 60 days. Followed by 2005 when the total was surpassed on 31st July, in 61 days.
 

Short this year by 65 mms and 4 days to go to beat the record for fastest ever 2000 mms !

Colaba, just for the records, has crossed 2000 mms by July 3 times. In 1886, 1907 and 1991. But, we are still way behind for this station to cross 2000 mms by July end.

Records Recovery by Pradeep and Vagaries.


Lake Levels om Mumbai Page ..by Jayesh Mehta

Hulikal crosses 5000 mm in just 53 days and analysis of fastest 5000 mm in last 5 years...Published today. See Pradeep's Page

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Hulikal crosses 5000 mm in just 53 days and analysis of fastest 5000 mm in last 5 years...Published today. See Pradeep's Page 

Rainfall around Mumbai ending 8.30 am today(24-07-2013)

Colaba 218.6mm
Santacruz 215.6mm
Vagaries 175.0mm
Alibaugh 124.0mm
Uran 257.0mm
Panvel 215.8mm
Karjat 111.3mm
Khalapur 154.0mm
Vasai 56.0mm
Thane 111.4mm
Bhivandi 95.0mm
Murbad 71.2mm
Shahapur 72.0mm
Kalyan 85.0mm
Ulhasnagar 154.4mm
Ambernath 95.5mm

 Posted by Abhijit

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Posted Tuesday Night:
Wednesday 24th, Thursday 25th and Friday 26th Outlook:
As the axis slips Southwards in Central India. and supported by a UAC "fulcrum" in the West over Gujarat, most of the rains in the next 3 days (Wed-Fri) will be concentrated from Gujarat Eastwards thru MP and parts of Chattisgarh.

Many Parts of Saurashtra to get heavy showers from Wednesday thru Friday.
Starting with the coastal regions (Porbundar can get heavy rains in excess of 50-70 mms), main Saurashtra Peninsula will get good and beneficial showers Wednesday thru Friday.
Surat can get showers amounting to 30-40 mms on Wednesday.

Konkan and coastal Karnataka will recieve heavy rains on Wednesday, with a few stations exceeding 150 mms.

NW and North India may get the isolated localised convective showers, popping up at random.

Southern peninsula too may get decreased rainfall, with Chennai just  a localised shower in some parts may be possible.

Next 3 days, Wednesday thru Friday, Mumbai will get intermittent showers, some heavy .Though, the intensity of Tuesday (100 mms) may not be repeated, City should get an average of 45-50 mms/day. Intervals of bright periods may also be seen. 

Delhi NCR: Mainly cloudy, with the localised shower popping up in some parts. Rains upto 5-7 mms.Maximum rises to 36c.

Hyderabad: Rainfall decreases from Wednesday thru Friday.

Goa gets very heavy showers on Wednesday, with a possible rain total of 70 mms.

Northern Pakistan recieved fairly good rains today, with Islamabad receiving 39 mms. But, south of Punjab (Pak), it is still dry and hot, with Dalbandi reaching 47c.

Next 3 days, will be dry and hot in Sindh. Karachi, Nawabshah and Sukkur will be dry and hot. Nawabshah reaching 43c.
x-------------x--------------------------x--------------------------------x-------------------x

Posted Tuesday Evening:
BB-6 slips into Orissa and weakens to 998 mb. UAC over North AP/Vid...East Coast trough tending to "drift" Eastwards from coast....
West coast trough weakens on higher isobars..but remains intact along Northern Konkan coast. West coast activates as MSLP pressure drops near Konkan coast.

Mumbai: Frequent Heavy showers with a few very heavy towards early night (Tuesday). Another 50-55 mms (average) expected by Wednesday morning. 

Monday, July 22, 2013

Latest SWM Toppers on Pradeep's Page...Tamini takes the Cake !

As on Sunday 21st Night, BB-6 prevails over the same region, off the Orissa Coast. An associated UAC has formed over Northern Chattisgarh, tilting the Low towards SW.
The west coast off shore trough will strengthen from South Gujarat to Goa by Monday Night, with a vortex off the S.Gujarat coast.
Next 2 days, East coast trough slackens a bit.

Some Cities due for Action next 2 days: Monday 22nd and Tuesday 23rd July:

Hyderabad: Heavy rainfall with downpours on Monday.. Rain amounts on Monday around 30 mms. Decreasing from Tuesday to 20 mms. So rainy weather Monday and Tuesday.

Mumbai City: 4/5 Showers on Monday. Rainfall increasing from Monday night. Rainfall on Monday  around 30 mms increasing to 75 mms on Tuesday. Mumbai sees rainy conditions on Tuesday morning.

Pune: Puneites, see a wettish beginning to the week. Cloudiness increasing on Monday and Tuesday in the evenings. Sharp heavy showers in many parts. Rainfall 20-25 mms/day. More rains on Tuesday.

Nagpur: Cloudy and thunder showers late afternoon/night on Monday and Tuesday. Rain amounts will be around 20-25 mms/day. Monday may be a bit less around 10 mms.

Delhi NCR: Cloudy, with remote chance of rains in some parts. Rainfall to increase from 25th July.

Surat: Monday overcast with frequent showers, with thunder. Rainfall on Monday round 60 mms. Tuesday rainfall increasing to 70-80 mms. Rainy days for Surat and Bharuch on Monday and Tuesday.

Chennai: Would not expect any meaningful rains next 2 days. Rise in day temperatures, with sunny weather.

Goa: Monday /Tuesday get intermittent showers, a few of them heavy. Rain amounts will be 45-50 mms/day. Slight increase in rain frequency on Monday night.

Expecting good rainfall in Sambalpur (Orissa) on Monday/Tuesday. Thundershowers on Monday will amount to 10-15 mms of rains..or maybe into Tuesday also.

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Mumbai Region Rain Compilation by Rohit Aroskar...See Mumbai Page
West Coast & Hills Rainfall till 21st July...By Rohit Aroskar..Stats and Analysis Page


Rainfall around Mumbai ending 8.30 am today(21-07-2013)

Colaba 50.1mm
Santacruz 99.0mm
Vagaries 32.1mm
Vihar(Mumbai) 132.0mm
Tulshi(Mumbai) 182.0mm
Alibaugh 44.0mm
Uran 80.0mm
Panvel 71.0mm
Karjat 93.8mm
Khalapur 60.0mm
Vasai 98.0mm
Thane 93.2mm
Bhivandi 90.0mm
Murbad 52.0mm
Kalyan 79.0mm
Ulhasnagar 83.2mm
Ambernath 67.1mm
Barvi(Badlapur) 127.0mm

Posted by Abhijit Modak.

Friday, July 19, 2013

Check Updates on Pradeep 'Page and Mumbai Page

Talacauvery Reaches 4000 mms..in Just 49 Days. More comparisons with previous Years and Top 5..See Pradeep's Page

Today's Lake Levels and compared with Last Year on Date..By Jayesh Mehta on Mumbai Page

Abhijit Posts the Mumbai Regions' rains today on Mumbai Page

Heavy Downpour in Chandrapur -Nagpur Region of Vidharbha on Friday

Torrential Rains Lash Chandrapur-Brahmapuri-Nagpur belt: Heavy rains lashed this 150 kms area region on Friday. During the day (Friday), the main City Nagpur saw 128 mms in 12 hrs from 8.30 am-8.30 pm IST. Many regions and parts of the city are seeing flooding and overflowing waters.
Chandrapur received a massive 280 mms in 9 hrs till 5.30 pm IST, mostly from 2- 5.30 pm. Brahmapuri measured 42 mms.
More flood reports will pour in, as the rural areas have got massive rains in the region (will try to put up figures tomorrow).

However, on some preliminary study , it was seen that the heavy rain was a result of a localised towering Cb cloud. Due to a deep trough and UAC in the Bay, with Southern Quadrant pushing moisture inland, the Cb cloud developed after 2.30 pm, and due to supportive convection, favourable Lifted Index and favouring humidity, formed into a massive cloud with >40 reflectivity..

The region had good sunshine till 2-2.30 pm, and allowed the day's maximum to rise to 31c in the mentioned cities. Later, a sudden up lifting due to rising thermals encouraged the formation of a Cb cloud to 14 kms height.
It was reported, that the intensity at Chandrapur was extreme, as almost 240 mms fell in 3 hrs from 2.30 pm IST Friday.

The CB cloud has moved NW, and is seen dissipating as on 11.30 pm IST over Southern MP.

But the conditions will favour in the Western MP region on Saturday, and as forecasted, will bring heavy rains there .

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Outlook for Friday 19th, Saturday 20th and Sunday 21st July for Sub-Continent

Friday
Heavy rains to watch in North Konkan and adjoining Southern Gujarat Coast. 
Heavy Showers in Delhi NCR on Friday Night. Overnight rains around 35-40 mms average.

Mumbai, Friday will see times of heavy showers, with intervals of respite. Heavy showers on Friday night. Rains amount will be around 30-35 mms average.
Eastern and Northern  Outer Townships get heavy rains on Friday, with amounts up to 75 mms by Saturday morning.

Saturday: 
Early Saturday, Heavy rains watch out for Uttarakhand, adjoining UP,(districts of Bijnor, Muzzafarnagar, Meerut and Moradabad, with Meerut possibly getting 60-70 mms and Ghaziabad 50-60 mms.. and Western Nepal.Heavy rains to watch out in West MP ( Indore, Ujjain and Bhopal ), North Konkan.

Delhi NCR will get thunder showers and occasional showers. Rains may add up to 20-25 mms average.
So, mainly Thunder showers in Delhi NCR from Friday night thru Saturday night.

Mumbai will get occasional showers and spells of a heavy shower or two. Rains will amount to 30-40 mms average.
Eastern Outer Townships get very heavy rainfall and could add up to 80-90 mms in some towns.

Sunday: 
A Low forms over the Northern Bay region.
The Southern Quadrant shows excessive clouding, hence heavy rains for AP ( coastal Districts). 
Heavy rains in North move into Punjab. All regions of Punjab get heavy rains on Sunday.
Western MP continues with heavy rains for one more day.

Mumbai will get showers with periods of bright intervals. Occasional heavier showers will interrupt the day with rains up to 35-40 mms.
Outer Townships will get showers amounting to 40-50 mms.
Delhi NCR: Chance of thunder shower in some parts, and around 10 mms where it rains.

Chennai: Sunday Chance of drifting Thunderstorms from the NW and North.

Three Days City Outlook:
Surat can expect showers on all days with rains around 15 mms/day.

Pune sees a increase in rainfall intensity on Satursday and Sunday, with amounting increasing to 20 mms on Saturday.

Goa: Friday thru Saturday will be overcast with regular showers, some drenching on Saturday. Daily rain amount will be around 50 mms on Friday and Sunday, and about 60 mms on Saturday.

Bangalore: Frequent light drizzling in parts of city. Cloudy and very pleasant in the day at 26c.

Kolkata: Chances of passing showers in parts of he city, measuring up to 10  mms /day.

Pakistan:
 Dalbandin was the hottest in Pakistan on Thursday at 45c.

The S W Monsoon current will be seen moving in to Northern Pakistan by Sunday. Pakistan Punjab will get heavy rains on Sunday. All towns and cities of Pak Punjab can expect rains . Northern Pakistan gets good rains this weekend. Islamabad can get heavy thunder showers.

Karachi has a chance of light showers on Friday. Saturday and Sunday see no chances of rains. Temperature range between 34 and 27c.
Nawabshah and Sukkar will be hot at around 42c, Sukkar could see a minimum of 31c on Sunday. 

In Nepal. Pokhra received heavy rains of 46 mms on Thursday. Kathmandu had light drizzles, with the day at 25c on Thursday.
Most of the rains will be in Western Nepal regions this weekend.

Abhijit's Mumbai Region amounts on Mumbai Page Today
Rainfall around Mumbai ending 8.30 am today(18-07-2013)

Colaba 21.7mm
Santacruz 55.6mm
Vagaries 19.1mm
Vihar(Mumbai) 53.0mm
Tulshi(Mumbai) 117.0mm
Alibaugh 27.0mm
Uran 42.0mm
Panvel 70.6mm
Karjat 152.5mm
Khalapur 99.0mm
Vasai 60.0mm
Thane 106.6mm
Bhivandi 60.0mm
Kalyan 56.0mm
Ulhasnagar 76.6mm
Ambernath 82.6mm
Barvi(Badlapur) 109.0mm


Posted by Abhijit Modak
Some more  rains around Mumbai as on Tuesday Morning:  Mumbra 122 mms, Virar47 mms, Badlapur 71 mms,  Karnala Sanctuary 56 mms, Manor (Beach) 40 mms, Murbad 46 mms.

Daily Lake Levels compiled by Jayesh Mehta also Put Up

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Monsoon Analysis : 1st July-15th July...From GSB Our expert analyst)..On Stats and Analysis Page

Though the heavy showers and gusty winds on Wednesday gave the impression of a rainy  day for Mumbai City, it was just a "normal" July day, with 4/5 heavy showers of limited durations for Mumbai City. The rains were distributed in the day and measured 21 mms at colaba and 46 mms at Scruz, averaging 33 mms on Wednesday. (vagaries' Estimated up to 25 mms.
 On Tuesday, Delhi Averaged 16 mms,keeping with our estimate of 20 mms, and Pune managed 10 mms .
Surat overshot the estimate of 25 mms to 38 mms.

Estimate for 16th,17th and 18th July  for Sub-Continent

In the next 3 days from Tuesday, we see the UAC merging with the Monsoon Axis. But, another Low pops up over Orissa on Friday.
Tuesday, Wed/Thursday, we see nothing very unusual on the rain scene. Moderate to heavy rains will occur along a South shifted Axis. Rainfall will be occurring along  Gujarat/MP/Chattisgarh/Northern Vidarbha and Southern UP line. Also some thunder showers in Southern Haryana and Orissa. 
Heavy rains in Orissa from Thursday.
Uttarakhand and Nepal get heavy rains on Thursday. Kathmandu, as Neeraj informs, is deficient. With 121 mms in July so far, it has to catch up with the July normal of 363 mms.
Days in Kathmandu are at 29c, and nights at 20c. We can expect a slight increase in rains on Wed and Thursday.

Karachi may get some showers, in some parts, on Tuesday/Wednesday or Thursday. But rain expected to be light and passing.
Nawabshah, Sukkar and Multan will be hot and dry. Nights in Multan may rise to above 30c.

Mumbai: Tuesday /Wed/Thurs: Partly cloudy. Rains frequency increasing a bit from Tuesday afternoon. 4/5 Passing showers of 10/15 minutes duration between sunny and bright intervals. A downpour in the night .Rain amounts per day will be around 20-25 mms (avg), reducing a bit on Thursday.
Gusty and strong winds from W/SW on Wednesday and Thursday.

Pune: Rain on Tuesday will measure up to 10-12 mms. Wednesday and Thursday will be light rains in some parts , measuring around 5-10 mms.


Chennai: The Thunder shower in the post afternoon period will appear on Tuesday and Wednesday. In some parts , could be heavy and gusty.

Surat: Cloudy with some heavy showers. Rainfall around 20 -25 mms on Tuesday, and increasing to >30 mms on Wednesday.

Delhi NCR: Chances of Thunder showers on Tuesday and Wednesday evening/night. Rain amounts around 20 mms. 

Monday, July 15, 2013

UAE Weather Analised by Rohit Aroskar..on Stats and Analysis Page
Chart by Vagaries as on Monday Night...Please put in your forecasts for next 3 days  in comments..

All India SWM rainfall Toppers from 01.06.2013 to 13.07.2013...On Pradeep's Page

Mumbai Lakes Total Live Storage % as on Dates compared with last year..and Table prepared by Jayesh Mehta on Mumbai Page

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Recent Central India Heavy Rains..see Rohit's Analysis on Stats and Analysis Page..and Daily Update of Mumbai Lakes on Mumbai Page


SW Monsoon moves into Sindh:


The UAC has entered Pakistan via the Sindh route, and SW winds have brought Thunderstorms to Karachi on Saturday.Light showers of rains were recorded in some parts of the City by evening. Northern parts got drizzles and thunder. In Sindh, Mithi got the highest rainfall of 38 mms, Chorr 10 mms and Nawabshah managed 1 mm.

A weak Monsoon has set in over Sindh. Some thunder showers are likely in coastal Sindh and Karachi next 2 days. Though the rains may exceed 10 mms on sunday.
However, Nawabshah, Sukkar and interior Sindh will continue to be cloudy with a chance of an odd thunderstorm on Sunday. More rainfall possible next week.

SWM can move into Northern Pakistan and Pakistan Punjab next week, around 16th.
SWM advance map updated.

Rainfall around Mumbai ending 8.30 am today(13-07-2013)

Colaba 49.2mm
Santacruz 107.8mm
Vagaries 87.1mm
Vihar(Mumbai) 127.0mm
Tulshi(Mumbai) 150.0mm
Uran 86mm
Panvel 124.0mm
Karjat 114.0mm
Vasai 153.0mm
Virar 265.4mm
Bhiwandi 130.0mm
Mumbra 169.4mm
Thane 137.4mm
Kalyan 129.0mm
Barvi(Badlapur) 284.0mm


Posted by Abhijit Modak

Thursday, July 11, 2013

On Friday, Mumbai was flooded, traffic snarled and trains were late...was it heavy rains,or mismanagement ? ...See Mumbai Page for Latest Update


Massive Rains in South Gujarat..See Flash Snippet

Weekend City Forecast: Friday 12th, Saturday 13th and Sunday 14th July
Mumbai:
Friday: Frequent Spells of showers with gusty winds, a few of them heavy. Monsoon cloudiness in the day. Rain
amount: 50-55 mms.
Saturday: Showers in day, a few heavy, and rain amount 25-30 mms.
Sunday: Showers will be inter parsed with bright spells. Rain amount: 20-25 mms.

Pune: Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy skies, with intermittent drizzling and light rains. Rain amount on Friday upto 15-20 mms, decreasing on Saturday/Sunday.

Surat: Intermittent showers on Friday. Rain may accumulate to 60 mms by Saturday morning. Monsoon weather.
Satursday cloudy with spells of rain, a few heavy in some parts. Rains upto 15-20 mms. Decrease on Sunday.

Delhi NCR: Friday/Saturday will be cloudy and some cloudiness increase in evenings. Rain in some parts on Friday/Saturday evening/night Upto 15 mms..
Sunday night sees a slight decrease in most parts, but, rains on Monday into the night will measure around 30-40 mms.

Hyderabad sees rains on Friday, some heavy showers, but decrease in precipitation from Saturday.

Kolkata: Good chances of "spot" thunder showers on Friday,Saturday and Sunday. Sunday can see the odd shower pop up in the evening.Rain amounts betwen 15-20 mms/day.
 

 Chennai: Partly cloudy and warm on all days till Monday. The odd shower popping up in some parts on Friday or Saturday, with around 7-10 mms/day.


Goa: Frequent showers throughout the day on Friday and Saturday. Daily rains will be around 60 mms on Friday and 35-40 mms on Saturday and Sunday.

1.BB-5 has established as a deep Low over Orissa as on Thursday evening.The system ,as a trough, is tilting SW with height.
The sea level low, will in all probibility fizzle out by Saturday, over Chattisgarh.

2. The upper air UAC, associated with the system will survive, and linger as an upper air trough in the MP region on Saturday and Sunday. The significant 700 hpa trough, in the MP/Chattisgarh region, is the region to pay attention on.

Friday: BB-5 moves W/NW.
Districts to watch for heavy rains will be Nagpur, Akola. In AP: Adilabad, Karimnagar and Nizamabad. In MP, Betul, Chundwara, Khandwa and Nimur

Saturday: Heavy Rains watch in Eastern Gujarat (all districts), and Indore district of MP. Udaipur in Rajasthan.




Sunday: Districts of Udaipur, Bilwara, Ajmer and Pali, and Southern regions of Uttarakhand, and Western Nepal, to watch out for heavy rains. Medium rains (20-40 mms) in Southern Haryana, adjoining Rajasthan, Delhi NCR and adjoining UP.



No rainfall from this system in Pakistan.

Mumbai will see occasional showers, a few heavy. Rain amount will be 30 mms on Friday, and reducing rains on Saturday and Sunday with 20-25 mms/day.
Outer Townships get heavier rains on Friday (50 mms), reducing to 35-40 mms on Saturday/Sunday.

Pictorial Weather of MP and Rajasthan by Rohit Aroskar on stats and Analysis Page
Latest Update on BB-5 and estimated track coming up o blog ..around 11 pm IST.

Rainfall around Mumbai ending 8.30 am today(11-07-2013)

Colaba 93.4mm
Santacruz 41.0mm
Vagaries 57.5mm
Vihar(Mumbai) 70.0mm
Tulshi(Mumbai) 76.0mm
Alibaugh 89.0mm
Uran 68mm
Panvel 154.0mm
Karjat 135.0mm
Vasai 65.0mm
Thane 72.2mm
Kalyan 90.0mm
Ulhasnagar 124.6mm
Ambernath 106.6mm
Barvi(Badlapur) 105.0mm


Posted by Abhijit Modak

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Abhijit Modak will be posting Interesting Rainfall details and Information of the Townships around Mumbai from Today. He will be posting directly on Vagaries every morning...the 2nd after Pradeep.

Rainfall in Mumbai ending 5.30 pm today (10-07-2013)

Colaba 56.0mm
Vagaries 47.1mm
Santacruz 23.0mm 
Alibaugh 60.0mm

For information Colaba max temp was 26.2 c & Santacruz max temp was 26.5c today


Rainfall around Mumbai ending 8.30 am today(10-07-2013)

Colaba 22mm
Santacruz 24.6mm
Alibaugh 45.3mm
Uran 63mm
Panvel 95mm
Karjat 36.2mm
Vasai 21mm
Thane 35.6mm
Kalyan 27mm
Ulhasnagar 51.4mm
Ambernath 38mm



Posted by Abhijit Modak

Tuesday, July 09, 2013

East Coast Off shore trough Strengthens..BB-5 forming in next 12-24 hrs off Orissa coast

1 Day remaining for July Contest Entries..

Outlook for next 3 days....BB-5 could form by Thursday 11th..

1. Tuesday 9th: Heavy rain in Haryana, Parts of NCR, Eastern Uttarakhand and adjoining Western Nepal.UP region South of Lucknow, and Lucknow having the odd chance.
Current rate of moderate rains continue on Tuesday for Konkan (30-50 mms).
Mumbai : Rain at times, amounting to  Avg 30 mms
Delhi NCR: Rain amount about 25 mms.
Chennai: Chance of a thunder shower by evening.

2.Wednesday 10th: Heavy rainfall in UP region East of Delhi NCR.Central Nepal gets heavy rains .
Increase in rainfall on the entire West Coast of India.
Increase in rains in Northern Pakistan regions of Pak Punjab and Upper Sindh. Coastal Sindh gets light showers.
Mumbai: Occasional  Rains about 35-40 mms.
Delhi NCR: Rain amount 10-12 mms in the evening/night.Some parts may receive upto 25 mms.
Surat: Occasional showers amounting to 20 mms.
Kathmandu: A heavy thunder shower possible.30-35 mms.

3.Thursday 11th: BB-5, a low pressure forms in the Bay, off the AP or Orissa coast.Tracking W/NW from Thursday 
Heavy rains in AP, Southern Orissa and adjoning Eastern Vidharbha.
Rains increase along West Coast, with some places getting 80-100 mms.
Mumbai: Frequent Rains will about 40-45 mms.
Delhi NCR: An evening thunder shower possible in some parts.
Kolkata: Thunder shower possible in evening.
Surat: Occasional showers amounting to 20-25 mms.

General Estimate for next 3 days:
Pune: Current trend of light rains, upto 5 mms/day continues.
Karachi: Light sowers on all days, amounting to 2-5 mms/day.
No encouraging news for Nawabshah and Sukkar. The  cities will be dry and hot on these 3 days.

Saturday, July 06, 2013

Where is this Place ? Any guesses ?..See Interactive Page

Talacauvery the fastest to cross 3000 mm in this SWM 2013..See Pradeep's Page Updated with Latest SWM Info.

Mumbai Lakes rainfall diagram graphics on Mumbai Page..and more on Stats and Analysis Page from Rohit Aroskar

If we refer to the forecast map of vagaries put up earlier for the 6th-8th July, we can get an idea if any changes are to be made in that.
Overall, I would keep the regions marked same, but just scale down the rainfall by about 15-20%..for all the regions shown.

Surely we see precipitation moving into Uttarakhand, and the adjoiing States of UP, Delhi NCR and parts of Haryana.

Heavy rains likely in Uttarakhand on Sunday and Monday, with the hilly regions getting 100 mms..
 

Delhi NCR sees an increase in rains from Saturday night thru Monday, with  around 15-20 mms /day (Saturday/Sunday) in the region and some areas getting up to 25-30 mms on Monday.

Kathmandu can receive heavy rains on Monday, and may add up to 30-40 mms..heavy rains likely in West and Central Nepal.
 

The West coast trough "revs up" a bit, to some extent, bringing rainfall between 20-40 mms in places on the coast and 40-60 mms inland in the Konkan. Overall a marginal increase over last few days.
 

Mumbai City sees more cloudy weather compared to Friday (which was bright), and passing showers on Saturday ( 15-20 mms) and Sunday 20-25 mms.
Outer townships see heavier shower spells, with the quantum around 25-45 mms/day, with the odd patch getting up to 50 mms.
Northern Suburbs and Townships (Vasai and surroundings) can get heavier rains on Saturday.


Passing light to medium showers for Surat, around 7-10 mms /day.
Pune will be partly cloudy and breezy (SW) with light showers in the afternoon/evenings insome parts of city..no substantial changes.
Coastal Karnataka and Goa see a slight increase over last few days also, though less marked than Konkan.

Some thunder showers and pockets of heavy precipitations over North AP, adjoining regions of Vidarbh and N.I.Karnataka.
Nagpur can get a heavy thunder shower by Monday evening..around 20-25 mms.

Warm for Kolkata next 3 days..only the chance of the odd shower "popping" up in a particular patch or part of city in the evening.
Good chance of a thunder shower on Saturday and Sunday night, but the chances decreasing and reducing after Sunday, and almost dry on Monday/Tuesday.

Southern regions of Pakistan may get medium rains. Sindh region, including Karachi  have the chances of rainfall increasing after Monday. The monsoon moves into the Sindh region after Monday..initially in Lower Sindh regions.

Karachi can get light showers from Sunday Night/Monday.
But, the rainfall is missing the Sukkur and Nawabshah cities. These will, unfortunately, remain dry and hot..around 42c.

Islamabad remains warm and partly cloudy with day temperatures around 36c.

Please be free to ask specific region weather if required..

Friday, July 05, 2013

Indian Sub-Continent Chart as on Friday Night.....


This is the Current Situation (Friday Night)....What is your interpretation for the weekend..? Want opinions by Saturday afternoon...
Axis may move North and UAC may fizzle out...by Friday as estimated...
Plotting this chart was tedious...weekend forecast comes up on Saturday afternoon....

Wednesday, July 03, 2013

Check Stats and Analysis Page

Graphical Analysis of June Rainfall compiled by Rohit Aroskar..on Stats and Analysis Page

MONSOON REPORT (16-6-2013 TO 30-6-2013)..compiled by GSB on Stats and Analysis Page
Heavy rains on 6th,7th and 8th around Uttarakhand, adjoining UP, Haryana, Punjab and NCR. SWM moving into Pak around 9th and Karachi by 12th




Tuesday, July 02, 2013

Latest Update posted on Tuesday Nite

 Wettest Monsoon Day in 2013 for maharashtra...See pradeep's Page

BB-4 lingers on, and on Tuesday, was located as a weak low over North-East MP and adjoining Chattisgarh. The associated UAC is prevalent till 700 mb.

Clouds associated with the system is in the West quadrant.
Next 2 days, this sea level low (BB-4) fizzles out, but the associated UAC forms a trough,running West-East across MP.

If UAC and upper Air trough persists over Gujarat and MP beyond Thursday, rains may extend by a day.


Wednesday 3rd July: Heavy rains in SE Rajastan. Heavy rains in Udaipur and adjoining places.Northern Maharashtra and parts of Marathwada. Akola gets heavy rains.Heavy rains in Goa on both, Wednesday and Thursday.



Thursday 4th July: Heavy rains in Eastern Gujarat (Gujarat Region), Southern Gujarat and Konkan. Ahmadabad, Surat, Bharuch, Dahanu and Mumbai get heavy rains.Heavy rains in Eastern Uttarakhand and Western Nepal.

Mumbai: Wednesday will be cloudy with occasional bright periods. But occasional heavy showers during day will add up to 15 mms in the day and 20 mms on Wednesday night.

Thursday : Overcast skies with heavy intermittent showers. Oft and on rain spells with rain amounting to 30-40 mms till Friday morning.
Outer townships get more rains...maybe upto 60 mms.
Rain decreasing from Friday.

Pune: Cloudy and chance of showers in city. Some areas may get a heavy shower. 10 mms possible/day on Wed and Thursday.

Surat: Rainfall increasing from Wednesday night. Heavy rains on Thursday, but decreasing by afternoon. Rains may be around 60 mms from Thursday night and into Friday morning.

Delhi NCR: Wednesday and Thursday will be partly cloudy and hot. Some evening rain in some areas only, or in the vicinity. Winds will be ESE. 

Chennai will be warm and humid. I would not rule out a thunder shower in some areas on Thursday night...amounting to around 7-10 mms.

Link  here to Video of Vagaries' Meeting in Mumbai on 30th June 2013