Saturday, September 30, 2017


MONSOON REPORT (01-6-2017 TO 30-9-2017)  
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 30-9-2017) 841.3 mm
SEASON +/- -5.21%


Maharashtra ghat area seasonal rainfall:


Maharashtra &Goa coastal region seasonal rainfall:


Mumbai MMR seasonal rainfall : (data by Abhijit Modak)


(All maps are prepared by Tejas Baxi)

ALL INDIA SUBDIVISIONAL RAINFALL FIGURES:

REGION EAST AND NORTHEAST INDIA
SUBDIVISION ACTUAL    NORMAL DEP +/-
Nagaland Mizoram Manipur Tripura 1870.7   1496.9   25%
SHWB & SIKKIM 2039.8   2006.2   2%
GANGETIC WEST BENGAL 1133   1167.9   -3%
BIHAR 936.8   1027.6   -9%
ASSAM & MEGHALAYA 1614.5   1792.8   -10%
JHARKHAND 978.8   1091.9   -10%
ARUNACHAL PRADESH 1572.3   1768   -11%
REGION  NORTHWEST INDIA    
SUBDIVISION ACTUAL    NORMAL DEP +/-
WEST RAJASTHAN 365.6   263.2   39%
JAMMU & KASHMIR 545.4   534.6   2%
UTTARAKHAND 1199   1229.1   -2%
EAST RAJASTHAN 566.1   615.8   -8%
HIMACHAL PRADESH 720.7   825.3   -13%
PUNJAB 384.9   491.9   -22%
HAR. CHD & DELHI 345.8   466.3   -26%
EAST UTTAR PRADESH 648.4   897.6   -28%
WEST UTTAR PRADESH 531.1   769.4   -31%
REGION  CENTRAL INDIA      
SUBDIVISION ACTUAL    NORMAL DEP +/-
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH 646.3   477.5   35%
MADHYA MAHARASHTRA 852.5   729.3   17%
KONKAN & GOA 3206   2914.7   10%
GUJARAT REGION 995.3   914.7   9%
MARATHWADA 642.4   682.9   -6%
ODISHA 1051.7   1149.9   -9%
CHHATTISGARH 1039.4   1153.3   -10%
WEST MADHYA PRADESH 738   876.1   -16%
VIDARBHA 731.5   954.6   -23%
EAST MADHYA PRADESH 795.8   1051.2   -24%
REGION SOUTH PENINSULA    
SUBDIVISION ACTUAL    NORMAL DEP +/-
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY 414.1   317.2   31%
RAYALASEEMA 506.1   398.3   27%
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH 662.8   581.1   14%
LAKSHADWEEP 1108.3   998.5   11%
N. I. KARNATAKA 522.9   506   3%
S. I. KARNATAKA 670.3   660   2%
A & N ISLAND 1526   1682.5   -9%
KERALA 1857.4   2039.6   -9%
TELANGANA 657.4   755.2   -13%
COASTAL KARNATAKA 2596.3   3083.8   -16%
source  IMD
 

Friday, September 29, 2017

Posted 29th Friday :

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-11)
Malé, Maldives, 25-27 September 2017

Consensus Statement on the Forecast for the 2017  October to December (OND) Season Rainfall and Temperatures over South Asia

Summary
Below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2017 OND Season over some parts of SE Peninsular India, north Sri Lanka and some northeastern areas of the region. Above normal is most likely over southeastern part of the region and along the coastal areas adjacent to the north Bay of Bengal. Over remaining areas of the region including northwest and central areas that generally receive
very little rain during the season, rainfall is most likely to be Normal.
Normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely during the 2017 OND Season over most parts of the region.
Currently cool neutral ENSO conditions prevail in the Pacific Ocean and these conditions are likely to continue and turn to border line/ weak La Nina conditions in the early next year. It is also recognized that during the 2017 OND season, in the absence of SST forcings from Pacific and Indian oceans, strong
intra seasonal features will have larger influence on the climate variability over
the region leading to increased uncertainty in predictions of seasonally averaged rainfall and temperature patterns.
The consensus forecast outlook presented here has been developed
through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world.
For more information and further updates on the northeast monsoon
outlook on national scale, the respective National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services (NMHSs) may be consulted.
A separate consensus statement for the winter season (December 2017 to
February 2018) will be issued in November 2017.

Full Statement here:

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Thursday, September 28, 2017

Image result for new      BENGALURU 
(SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA RAINS )

During past 5 years (2013-2017) , Bengaluru averages 20 % more rains during Jan-Sep than it's average during 1981-2010..

This September , Bengaluru had 500 mms rain till now.. 

Click below 


Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Posted 27th Wednesday Night:

On Wednesday 27th, IMD has started withdrawing the South West Monsoon.
Happy to note that the Red Line drawn on the Vagaries' withdrawal image and places of widhrawal (mentioned on 25th Monday) matches and is in line with the IMD mention.

Further, Vagaries mentions further (to its Monday ) withdrawal of SWM from West M.P, Saurahtra, North Gujarat, Haryana and Delhi.
Next Phase of Withdrawal (next 3 days) from Rest of Gujarat, M.P, North Madhya Mah, Marathwada, Vidhdarbh .

Bangalore has been getting very good rains as mentioned by Vijayanand and RajeshKumar.
The city has gone into surplus, and is seeing one of the best Auguast and September rains in many years. 
Bangalore AP...Total this SWM 805 mms and 361 mms above normal +45%
Bangalore City...Total this SWM 932 mms and 406 mms above normal +44%
Rains to continue this weekend...Cool day on Thursday. As of now seems more rains next week.






Mumbai: As mentioned , a light shower on Thursday, Thunder shower possible in patches on Friday and Saturday. Withdrawal phase from 1st October.
Pune had thunder showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. Heavy rains in many areas, fog was seen in the mornings.

Monday, September 25, 2017

Posted Monday 25th Night:

1. Anti Cyclone at 850 hp levels, OLR, UTH and dry air indicates the withdrawal of South West Monsoon from Rajasthan, Kutch, Punjab, Haryana, H.P. and Kashmir. 



Next phase indicates withdrawal from West M.P, Saurashtra, North Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Haryana and Delhi. (Next 2  days). Within 2/3 days, we will see strong dry NW winds blowing over Delhi.
Monsoon withdrawal will commence from Vidharbh and North Madhya Mah. and Marathwada from 1st October.

(However, due to sea level trough in the North, some agencies may not consider as Monsoon withdrawn yet. Logically, some agencies would wait for the trough to move Southwards while the Monsoon withdraws. But, at sea level, we already see a confluence of North winds and NW winds all along the interior areas of the West coast.) 

Mumbai City: Thursday:  Morning will be cloudy with a shower in some areas. Clearing later by afternoon.
Friday: A thunder shower likely towards the latter part of Friday.
Saturday: Maybe a thunder shower in the evening, maybe the last wet weekend of the current season. 
Mumbai City can anticipate the first half of October to become hot...and mercury could even touch 38/39c !

Thundery conditions can develop in Interior North Konkan (Outer Townships) on Thursday/Friday.

Pune: Pune experienced a medium fog on Monday morning. Next 3 days city may expect a thunder shower in late afternoon/evening, with Friday maybe getting a heavy shower in some areas.

Kolkata: Thunder showers increasing after Wednesday on daily basis.

Friday, September 22, 2017

Posted Friday Noon IST:
Mumbai City: Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Partly cloudy and sunny spells. Light rain in some parts of city. Days will be warmer.

Nagothane and surrounding regions may get some showers on Saturday /Sunday evening.
Pune: Thunder shower likely on Sunday.

BB-12 now over Central M.P. is precipitating good rains. Likely to fizzle out as expected. 
South West Monsoon Withdrawing from West Rajasthan and Punjab and Kutch. Soon from Saurashtra and Rajasthan.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Posted Wednesday 20th Night:

Mumbai:
Though Wednesday had frequent showers, the intensity and quantum was much less than Tuesday. Colaba received 75 mms and Scruz 61 mms in 12 hrs till Wednesday evening. (Vagaries had estimated 35-40 mms till Wednesday evening). 
With a further decrease in rains on Thursday, we may see a brighter day on Thursday with a few showers.
This could be the penultimate spell of showers for Mumbai of this Monsoon. 
I would venture out (though not an expert) to give a longer forecast for Mumbai. Mumbai may get its last and final thunder showers around 27th/28th September.

BB-12 has moved into East M.P. on Wednesday and would track West and fizzle out over West M.P. Heavy rains likely in West M.P. and adjoining East Gujarat region.

South West Monsoon withdrawing from Kutch, West Rajasthan and Punjab. Next phase rest Rajasthan and Saurashtra.

Tulsi Lake received 248 mms and Vihar 2200 mms till Wednesday Morning...All Lakes total above 3000 mms...
Total Lake Storage 14.28 Mcum out of 14.47 Mcum full capacity, 98% full.
Lake info from Vagarian Jayesh Mehta.




Special Ghats data by Vagarian Abhijit Modak


Posted Tuesday Night:

Torrential Rains lashing Mumbai post Afternoon 19th Tuesday.
Some of the figures are crossing 300 mms in the suburbs as shown earlier.

The Current Low (Vortex) over Mumbai will gradually weaken and fizzle out inland East of Mumbai by Wednesday Morning.

Hence, we can expect the rainfall over Mumbai to decrease in intensity Wednesday morning. Moderate intensity till morning. But less rains on Wednesday , and we can expect ( after Scruz recorded 225 mms and Colaba 169 mms till 11.30 pm IST) around 35-40 mms on Wednesday till evening, meaning a heavy shower or two possible. However, it will remain windy with gusts till evening. Otherwise, situation will be much under control with no prolonged heavy showers. 

BB-12 has moved inland into Odisha. Will track towards M.P. and first strengthen on land, but fizzle out suddenly over West M.P. 
Monsoon Withdrawal has commenced from Extreme Western parts of Rajasthan. 

Posted Wednesday Morning With the arrival of J-4 by 19th, and which is fairly intense, we can expect widespread rain/snow in the North. N...