Thursday, January 31, 2013

Vagaries' Forecast put up on Monday ran well thru Thursday..now for some changes in the next few days and week end forecast......details of report of 
Latest on Sub-Continent Weather for 1st Feb to 5th Feb.....
Actual Report of Friday 1st Feb...
on Current Weather Page




Monday, January 28, 2013

Last Day Reading of 31st Jan remaining...and the Contest Results will be out today!

*Thick Fog ..Delhi NCR on 31st Jan..pics by Rajiv and Arpit... see Inter Active Page 

Wednesday Morning report: Refer Forecast and report below to follow up:

Wednesday and J-5 moving into Kashmir. An extended line of medium to high clouds extends from the system Southwards thru Rajasthan. Clouding has formed due to thinly spaced isobars at the 850 hpa level. 
But as expected, J-5 will have to make way for the stronger F-1 , already seen as a well formed Low in MSLP charts near the 65 E region.
J-5 and its southern "tail" dissappears by Thursday. Almost on schedule as given in Vagaries 4 day forecast.

East-West trough has also formed along the North Mah. region, a day ahead (as we expected it by Thursday). A "pocket" develops in the trough, which has resulted in an isolated , but violent thunderstorm (on Tuesday night)about 80 kms East of Jalna in North Maharashtra. Vagaries keeping track on both systems...

Some Interesting activity in the Northern Sub-Continent regions, with 3 WDs on the way !..Check Dubai Forecast below.

Tuesday 29th: Dry all over except scattered precipitation in Nilgiri mountains. 

Wednesday 30th: dry all over, except Kashmir where J-5 moves as a weak WD..prevailing precipitation over Kashmir for 2 days.
(So, we end Jan with 5 WDs. Prediction by Vagaries on 2nd Jan was for 6 WDs).

Thursday 31st: A small East West trough line slopes Eastwards with  height  towards the North Mah/MP region. Thursday 31st will be cloudy in North Marathwada. Aurangabad and Akola districts will be cloudy in the day.Thursday night light rains in Aurangabad, Akola and adjoining South MP region.

Friday 1st February: Isolated rains in Nepal. Kathmandu will e cloudy with light rainfall.
F-1 precipitation also over Kashmir region.
Moves into Pakistan. Western regions of Pakistan start getting rain/snow.
Some rains in Central regions of Sindh. 

Saturday 2nd February (tentative): F-1 moves into plains of Pakistan and Indian Punjab, Haryana and cloudy over Delhi NCR. Light rains over Delhi NCR on Saturday night...F-1 weakens on Sunday all over the region.

Leaving Monday 3rd, rainless in the Indian region, before a back to back F-2 moves into North Pakistan and Northern India on Tuesday 5th February.
The precipitation commences right away from F-2, spreading from Northern Kashmir thru Punjab, Haryana and upto Delhi NCR on Tuesday. Chances of heavy rain concentration seems to be in the Islamabad regions and possibly South over Western UP...maybe some changes occurring as the week progresses, we will chase F-2 later ..

City Forecasts;
*Delhi NCR: Tuesday 29th/Wednesday 30th/Thursday 31st/ Friday 1st Feb: *Some fog on 30th and 31st morning. Fair weather with the temperature in the 22-6/7c range, gradually increasing to 24c-10c range.
Saturday 2nd February: Partly cloudy, with light rains in some parts of the regions.

Mumbai: Fair weather, with day and night temperatures in the 32/33c - 16/17c region, increasing day/night by 2c from Thursday onwards.

Kolkata: No rain, but cloudy skies on 31st Jan and 1st Feb..days rising to around 24/25c till Thursday and night temperatures show a gradual rise from tomorrow going upto 15c by Friday.

Pune: High clouds on Thursday and Friday..Days will be around 31/32c, with nights better at around 13/14c., till Thursday.

Surat: Mid Week the winds change again to Easterly in the morning, and the next 3/4 days will have consistent temperatures around the 31/32c -15/16c range...

Dubai will be very windy with sand blowing on Wednesday 30th...gets rains on 31st and 1st Feb. from the approaching WD ...should bring the temperature in the 25-16c range.




Thursday, January 24, 2013


Dharamsala  Weather for the ODI on Sunday, 27th:
Clear morning turning cloudy later..Day's high will be 18c and low will be 7c (28th morning)...as it is a day match, the playing temperatures will be from around 10c in the morning to max 18c by afternoon.

General Weather Situation and Forecast for this Weekend:
Friday 25th/Saturday 26th, the trough Strengthens and expected to run West to East roughly along the 19N line and from 75E thru eastwards upto Orissa coast.

Friday 25th: Light rains likely in Marathwada, Vidarbh and adjoining Southern MP. South Madhya Mah. will be partky cloudy.

Saturday 26th and Sunday 27th will be dry days for the Sub-Continent region...barring light rains in small pockets in Marathwada and adjoining Vidarbh. 

With NW winds blowing in the Northern plains from Punjab to Bengal, East winds in Gujarat* and Rajasthan and South/SE winds blowing into interior Maharashtra and Karnataka.

Monday sees increasing rainfall in Kashmir due to J-5...J-5 rains will be restricted to 1 day, but Vidharbh rains, starting Tuesday will persist...

Forecast and situation for Tuesday on wards will be put up Monday night..(F-1 is expected to be strong and induced low possible).

Mumbai:
Friday: Light cloudings. Day time winds may be NE, turning NW by evening..Temperature range (Scruz) 30/31c and 15/16c (Saturday morning).
Saturday/Sunday: Light clouds on Saturday..and NE winds turning NW by evening..Temperature range 31/32c - 16/17c (Sunday/Monday morning).

Pune: Weekend will be partly cloudy with high clouds, with temperature range in 31/32c and 13c..

*Surat..continues with the warming trend as more dominating winds turn East...weekend rising to 32/33c.

Delhi NCR: Delhi gets some alto cumulus/ stratus clouds on Sunday. Friday and Saturday (Sunday morning) will show the highs around 21c and low around 6/7c. 
Sunday will be lightly clouded with the day around 22c and night on Sunday (Monday morning) will show a rise to 9/10c...

Kolkata weekend will show absolutely constant weather clear, and around 24/25 - 12/13c...

as I will be away on a birding trip to Bhigwan Lake for 3 days from Friday..there will be no article on Vagaries till Monday night, and inter action on fb will be difficult. 


Light rains in Nagpur today (Thursday) keeps the max.temp within 20c at 19.8c (-9c). In Vid. Gondia was 20.1c and Amraoti 22.8c...posted Thursday 8 pm....

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Oswald and Peta, Two Back to Back Cyclones Pound Two Australian Coasts...See International Page:

Snowy UK Facing a Cold Week..and Europe Snow Bound....See International Page



J-4 moving across Northern Kashmir...though Srinagar did not get precipitation, the Northern areas like Anantnag and other regions had light precipitation.
Image from Wunderground....


Northern Sub-Continent still retaining the previous cold temperatures...Lowest in Indian plains was at adampur (Punjab), showing 1.7c...and Amritsar was 2c. 
Delhi Sjung was cold at 4.8c (4/5c).
Across the border, Sibbi froze to -4c, Mithi was 1c, and Islamabad was at 0c. 
(Figures in Brackets indicate the vagaries' forecasted figure)

The Day's high on Tuesday was higher in Mumbai with Scruz showing 31.5c (31/32c) and Colaba reading 30.7c.
Panjim however was very much higher at 35.4c, incidently the highest in the Sub-Continent today (22nd)...and Ratnagiri 32.oc.
Pune was 31.2c (30c) and Solapur 33.1c.
Surat showed the 2c rise as estimated, and reached 32.3c on Tuesday 22nd.

An UAC has formed over Vidharbh and adjoining Chattisgarh...Light rains likely over Vidharbh and adjoining Chattisgarh on 23rd and 24th...

Sunday, January 20, 2013


For Sunday 20th Jan:
Coldest in Asia was Korliki (Russia) -51c...Lowest in Plains of India 2.5c at Vanasthali (Rajasthan). 
In Pakistan plains lowest was at Sibbi -6c.
Incidently the high today in Sibbi was 23.5c...the day night variation works out to 29.5c..probably one of the widest range !!


Hottest in Asia on Sunday 20th: Punnalur (Kerala) at 35.6c, Makkah 35c.
Hottest in Asia: Punnalur 35.6c, Kohikode 34c.

The cold wave preceding J-3 will now abate from Central and western India, but continue for a few more days in the North.




Northern India faces prospects of continuing N/NW winds, chilled by the cold front, and will see below normal temperatures till Wednesday 23rd at least.
Reproducing (above) the same map published on 18th Friday. 

The approaching WD will be weak and will veer towards the N/NE towards Northern Kashmir. Moderate rain/snow in Upper Kashmir on Wednesday, 23rd. 
No meaningful effect in the plains of Northern sub-continent.

A major trough forming in the far west near the Caspian Sea could bring a WD into Northern India around 29th..but will monitor and follow it for exact dates.

An UAC, descending to sea level will most likely form around the N.Maharashtra region by Wednesday 23rd. 
The country wide dry weather extends into Monday 21st, before, Light precipitation could be expected from Wednesday 23rd  thru Friday 25th in Vidharbha and adjoining Chattisgarh region.

Delhi NCR will also be 2/3c below normal, i.e. actual around 4/5c for Monday and Tuesday mornings. 
Tuesday 22nd/Wednessday 23rd will see some parse high clouds, with possibility of a slight rise in temperatures.

Mumbai sees a rise in temperatures to the 31/32c region (or more) on Mon 21st/Tuesday 22nd. 
On Wednesday 23rd, due to the formation of the low, the winds turn North for the North Konkan coast region. 
But, even from this, the temperatures will not drop more than 2/3c.
Monday 21st/Tuesday 22nd: Mumbai will be in the 32/33c - 16/17c range (Scruz). 
Wednesday 23rd/Thursday 24th: Very sparsely cloudy, with 30/31c - 17c range.

Pune remains in the 30c - 12/13c range, with SE winds dominating from Wednesday 23rd. Medium clouds after Wednesday rises the night temperatures for a couple of days.

Surat too sees a rise in Temperatures from Monday with a rise of 2c in day and night. High clouds again on Wednesday...temperature remaining constant though..

Nagpur gets cloudy with light rains on Wed 23rd/Thursday 24th.

Nothing eventful to write for Kolkata till Thursday...

See Vagaries in Times of India..for this I thank all the readers and supporters for their faith in vagaries..and their full contribution in bringing Vagaries to the International levels...Thank You Vagarians..Vagaries is yours...

Web view - http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/stoi/special-report/Met-madness/articleshow/18096639.cms
Newspaper - Newspaper view of the Report

Friday, January 18, 2013


As promised, an eventful J-3. (See video here)

Good precipitation in the Northern hills and plains, and lived up to the expectations of rains along Sindh coast (Karachi), Western Gujarat and Kutch, into Rajasthan.(The NE line as expalined last week).The induced low over Rajasthan did the trick. 
For the Northern plains, (Delhi included), precipitation will decrease by Friday evening...Thick fog on 20th morning.

Now, J-3 estimated to move into Nepal on 19th Saturday, with heavy precipitation in Utterakhand and adjoining Nepal.
Kathmandu will get showers on 19th Saturday and 20th Sunday.

Entire India and Pakistan region will get a 2 day "rain break" from 20th Sunday, i.e. 20th and 21st.

But, the cold NW winds will take over from 18th Friday, as the temperatures start dropping.

The Gujarat, Maharashtra and MP regions will feel the drop from 18th Friday night.





Maharstra and Gujarat: Next 2 nights only: 
Remember, cold wave will not affect South wards of Goa/Karnataka region as explained in previous article.

Expected drop in Gujarat will be by about 2/3c from last nights level. Kutch expected to drop to below 7c by 20th Sunday. Surat drops to 11/12c ..valid next Friday and Saturday nights only.

In Maharashtra, next 2 nights, Pune and Nasik will drop to 7/8c.

Mumbai, clouds break up as forecasted, and temperature levels will be 10/11c at Scruz and 14/15c at Colaba on Saturday/Sunday morning. 

Aurangabad will fall to about 9/10c and Nagpur will drop to 8c till Sunday.






North sees thick fog on 20th morning..
Northern plains of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan and Delhi NCR sees a fall in night temperatures from 19th Saturday thru 22nd Tuesday. We expect a fall of 3/4c in the plains, with Delhi NCR also falling at night to 4/5c...cold spell in North lasts till 22nd Tuesday at least. Reason: North winds will dominate the entire Northern region.

But, Maharashtra and Gujarat, see a revisit of heat again from 20th Sunday night. 
Konkan (including Mumbai) days rise to 33/34c from 21st Monday, and again Surat goes over 31c...
but from 21st Monday though interior Maharasthra (Pune Nasik, Nagpur) remains within 30c in the day., night temperatures show a rise.

If the resultant rise does take place, we can expect an UAC to form in the Marathwada/Vidharbha region by 22nd Tuesday (cloud formation will indicate this)...if formed, may persist in region for a couple of days.

J-4, dont discuss till 26th Jan...


J-3 Precipitation Effect..Shimla, Manali and Dalhousie got fresh snow Thursday, while the lower hills across Himachal Pradesh were lashed by rains, Shimla last got snow Dec 14. Kufri, Fagu, Narkanda and Chail experienced moderate snowfall.

The high reaches Garhwal and Kumaon divisions experienced snowfall along with rains. Auli in Chamoli district has experienced heavy snowfall since Wednesday night. 

Srinagar 37 mms, Gulmarg 61 mms, Banihal 51 mms, Kalpa 95 mms, Simla 66 mms, Solan 56 mms, Manali 51 mms kulu 48 mms
Karnal 42 mms, Narnaul 34 mms. 

NewDelhi Sjung and Palam 21 mms, Noida 16 mms , Highest in Delhi region being Mungeshpur getting 34 mms...

Friday forecast published in previous blog...onwards putting up later...

Thursday, January 17, 2013


J-3 effect on Thursday 17th: 
In HP, Kasauli recieved  27 mms, Chelsie and Nahan 19 mms and Dalhousie 4 mms.Bhuntar had good showers, around 9 mms today and a high at 5.6c

Baramulla got 11 mms, Srinagar recieved 8 mm of rain/snow in the day Thursday.
In Rajasthan,Churu gauged up 9 mms,  Jodhpur received 8 mms and several stations between 1-5 mms.

J-3 Medium rains continued in Kutch. Bhuj and Bachau with around 5 mms in the day (Thursday) and a high of 19c. 
With overcast sky and 11 mms of rain, the highest temperature in Patiala is hovering around 14c. 

Karachi had drizzle intermittently, the days temperature currently showing 21c as the highest.


Mumbai: Thursday has become very windy (NW), and partly cloudy. Day was at 31c (31c)* at Scruz and 30.3c at Colaba. 
Expected temperature will be as forecasted, around 15c on Friday morning. 

Pune was at 31.6c (31c)*.


New Delhi saw a high of 20.8 (19)*, remained partly cloudy with scattered rain in parts of the city. Mungeshpur area had 19 mm and Akshardham 2 mms. and other parts of NCR between 3-5 mms. 
More rain tonite.

Kolkata warmed up as expected to 27.6c today (28c)*.

Surat ,still at 29.6c (28c)* today was a tad higher than expected.Tomorrow should be as expected..a further drop.

* Brackets indicate vagaries' forecasted figure

Monday, January 14, 2013

Latest Sat Image as on Thursday 17th.Afternoon...Tally and Compare with Vagaries'Forecast given below in 2 posts...Note the Moving away of the High giving way to WD movement Eastwards..and the SW band route...West Saurashtra gets the rains




Latest Post as on 16th January ..evening..

J-3 Effect: Thursday 17th: Heavy snow in Kashmir/HP..rains in Punjab and Haryana, Delhi. Thunder and hail in plains of North India..Precipitation upto 35-40 mms in next 24/48 hrs..Snow upto 35-40 cms possible in Kashmir and HP, and 35-40 mms rains in the plains by Saturday morning.

Delhi rainy on 17th and 18th. Thursday cloudy and cool, with rains increasing by evening, possibly with thunder. By Thursday morning upto 5 mms possible.

Friday, overcast and cool (18c/19c). Rain with hail and thunder. By Friday morning, upto 10-15 mms rains possible.


Mumbai City:

17th Thursday: Partly cloudy skies. Temperatures (SCruz) between 31/32c - 15/16c (Thursday morning). Strong N/NW winds commence.

18th Friday: Partly cloudy clearing by evening. Temperature: 28/29c - 15/16c Friday morning.
Saturday: Windy (NW) and cool. Day at 28/29 and low at 14/15c.Saturday morning..

Pune: 
15th and 16th will be warm with highs around 33/34c with nights around 11/12c.
17th Thursday onwards we see a slight drop in day and night temperatures by about 2/3c...and Friday dropping to around 8/9c.

Surat, unchanged.., refer below..

Snow in London..and Freezing Fog in U.K....Europe's Snow and Cold...See International Page  for renowned Meteorologist's Reports.

Post of 14th January:
J-2 gone, and the 2/3 days intermediate period till J-3..already announced rain less for 2 days, 13th and 14th...
The prevailing high pressure over Central India moves towards the Orissa/AP coast on Tuesday, but the ridge stretching from the centre of the high towards the West coast remains for a day ...by Wednesday, the high moves into the Bay region...

Tuesday 15th: As a instant result, the system, J-3 moves Eastwards and the system attracts initial SW winds towards the Sindh coast on the 15th.
Clouds spread along the Sindh coast with light rains on 15th Tuesday for Karachi and adjoining coastline.

Wednesday 16th: as J-3 moves east, clouds move into Northern Pakistan, Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi regions. 
Precipitation over N.Pakistan, Kashmir and light rains over Punjab and possible over Delhi NCR. 
Precipitation also possible along the stretch from Karachi NE wards towards Delhi thru Rajasthan.

17th Thursday: precipitation increases in the Northern regions of Pakistan, Kashmir, Punjab and Haryana, and also light rains continue in some places along the Sindh coast. Light rains also a possibility along the Western Saurashtra coast.

18th Friday, rains in Punjab and Haryana get heavy,upto 30-40 mms, with hailstones in the region. 
Delhi gets rain also.
Rain/snow also move into Utterakhand and Western Nepal..with heavy spells in parts of the state.

If there is no change in the scenario..Kathmandu gets showers on Friday and Saturday..more on Saturday...will follow this as the system moves in...

Delhi:
15th Tuesday: Partly cloudy with cloudiness increasing. Temperature range: 21c - 11c (SJung)
16th Wednesday; Cloudy skies, a mixture of alto stratus and sumulus. Light rains around evening. 20c - 12c

17th Thursday: Cloudy skies, with dark low clouds, keeping day cool and windy. Rain showers likely to increase by night. Temperatures between 18/19c - 12/13c. Upto 5 mms as on 24 hrs ended Thursday Morning.

18th Friday: Overcast and showers. Hail likely and some showers accompanied by thunder. Around 10 mms aaverage expected between 17th/18th. Friday morning sharp drop in night temperatures to 8/9c. 10 mms as on Friday morning.

Kolkata:
15th Tuesday/16th Wednesday: Clear sky and temperatures will be in the 28/29c - 16c range. (City)
17th Thursday: Fog in the morning hours. Partly cloudy with high clouds.

A trough will run (after the WD passes) from Thursday. The trough will run NE from Goa to South Bengal. Cold wave will not be effective South of this trough line.

Basically, cold effect of J-3 should be effective  from 17th Thursday onwards: 

Mumbai City:  
15th Tuesday/16th Wednesday: Clear and hazy sky with temperature range between 33c - 17c (Scruz)

17th Thursday: Partly cloudy skies and stuffy night. Temperatures between 31/32c - 19c. Strong N/NW winds commence for next 2/3 days.

18th Friday: Partly cloudy clearing by evening. Temperature: 28/29c - 16/17c.

Pune: 
15th and 16th will be warm with highs around 33/34c with nights around 11/12c.
17th Thursday onwards we see a slight drop in day and night temperatures by about 2/3c...and Friday dropping to around 8/9c.

Surat: 
Good news for the Surtis, as high clouds start the cooling trend from 16th Wednesday. Nights remaining 19c till Wednesday. 
Wednesday will see high clouds and the day temperature falling to around 30c..as NW winds take over.
Thursday onwards, the days will drop from 28c on Thursday to 26/27- on Friday. Friday morning will be cold at 13/14c.

Another fairly warm day on Makar Sankrat at Surat. With the day's high at 33.2c, there was very little wind fro the kite enthusiasts, as the morning and afternoon was having hardly any breeze. It was only after 2.30 pm that the west winds at around 6 km/hr started ..still enough for the experts , but not good enough for the beginners in kite flying.
Ahmadabad had a calm morning, with very weak winds, but post noon, the westerlies picked up to around 10 kmph.

Mumbai Scruz showed a high of 32.6c , Colaba 30.8c and Vagaries at 30.7c. Mumbai had good (19 kmph) winds post noon. 
Pune at 34.2c was very warm and a hot Sankrat at Ahmadnagar at 35.2c. Ratnagiri shot up to 35.4c.
even Mahableshwar could be considered warm at 29.3c....

The ridge and the High in Central India stubbornly persist....
more later tonite...

Sunday, January 13, 2013


2 Cyclones in the Zone indicated by Vagaries in the January Forecast Diagram:Cyclone "Narelle" and "Emang":


Tropical Cyclone "Narelle" is tracking W/SW, and has sustained winds at 75 knots with 90 knots gusts, Cat 3..  Currently at 230 NMiles W/SW of Learmonth (embedded in the monsoon trough). Expected to move South/ South-West now. No effect on Australian Coastline.

Tropical cyclone "Emang" is located 550 NM E/SE of Diego Garcia. Expected track SW from location.

Both these cyclones have formed in the zone indicated in the Vagaries diagram forecasting the overall January weather.

These 2 cyclones movement track is important to observe, as the current track forecast(of both) indicate the Monsoon Trough can shift Southwards.

Meanwhile, the heat wave, severe as it is, continues in Australia even as 
Birdsville Airport there managed 49.0c,  followed by Thargomindah Ap at 48.8c. 
Walgett wa not far at 48.5c.

And back home the Sunday highs were (10th Jan blog vagaries estimate forecast in brackets), 
Mumbai Scruz was at a high of (Sunday 13th) 33.5c (30/31), Colaba 30.8c (),Delhi SJung 22.9c (22/23) and Pune was at 32.0c (32/33).Surat was highest at 36.7c. 

A short summary for Sunday reading, ..probably followed by a detailed note Sunday night: Also some beautiful pics of the world's coldest village...(below)

1. J-2 moves away by Sunday right on prediction.

2. Saturday 13th and Sunday 14th January, 2 total dry (rainless) days in the sub-continent.High pressure in central India and ridge along west coast of India dissolves fast by sunday 13th.. North winds dominate Delhi NCR on Sunday.

3. As the system J-3 moves in, Tuesday, SW winds from Karachi thru Rajasthan bring clouds and light rain in the region from Karachi coast thru Rajasthan..and maybe lower Sindh and Kutch being in the path.

4. Delhi NCR cloudy from Tuesday evening and light rains overnight on wednesday morning....

5. J-3 is showing to be a sticky system, and may bring rains to Delhi NCR and Northern hills and plains till Friday..before moving into Nepal.

6. NEM withdraws.

The west coast showed the highest temperatures on Saturday 12th... due to the ridge..Ratnagiri 35.5c, Cochin 35.4c and Mangalore 35.3c.

The hottest in Australia Saturday was at the Lihou Reef National Nature Reserve measuring 49c. and Moomba airport at 48c.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The coldest habitated place, town, in the world..Oymyakon....see how they live at -56c Worth seeing!!


















and you get a certificate of witnessing -56c !!



AR1654 is a Monster Sunspot. (And It’s Aiming Our Way.)...see Space News Page of this blog...

For personal reasons, a performance assessment is made of the current forecast by vagaries..only if interested , see Current Weather Page...

Thursday, January 10, 2013


We have been reading about the Extreme cold  etc..now for some Heat..extreme Heat !!
Severe Heat Wave Down Under in Australia !!...Note the highlighted para in the end..Worth Reading !.....See International Page of  Vagaries...

Overcast Oman Today...Pic received from Nikhil..see Inter Active Page


Besides Sub-Continent, let us see the cold elswhere....
Lowest Maximum Temperatures today, 10th Jan 2013...See International Page..


Synoptic Situation as on Thursday 10th:

High pressure in Arabian Sea moves NE and a ridge is situated along the Konkan coast...Friday, 11th, the High may move Eastwards...
J-2 (WD), now over Afghanistan and Northern most Pakistan, can move into Kashmir by next 24 hrs...should precipitate rain/snow in Kashmir from 11th Night/12th Morning.
Due to the prevailing High, over Central Peninsula (on Saturday), J-2 moves away NE by Sunday. 

J-3 is approaching fast, and seems in good strength as of now. Tuesday 15th, we see the rain commencing in Lower Sindh..with Karachi expecting rains maybe light, on 15th..The system moves into India, and rains traverse into Upper Sindh and Rajasthan on 15th and 16th.
Delhi NCR getting cloudy on 14th or 15th, with light rainfall on 15th and 16th.

Meanwhile, the NEM withdraws from the South on Sunday, 13th.
Chennai night temperatures drop on Sunday/Monday morning.

Delhi 
Friday 11th /Saturday 12th: Early morning shallow fog..Temperature range: 21/22c - 9/10c
Sunday 13th/Monday 14th: Cloudy from Monday day time: Temperature range : 22/23c - 12/13c.
Tuesday 15th: Cloudy with light rains.

Mumbai SCruz 
Friday 11th: 31 - 16c (Friday morning)
Saturday 12th: Temperature range: 31c - 17/18c.
Sunday 13th: Temperature range: 30/31c - 16/17c on Sunday morning.

Friday 11th/Saturday 12th/Sunday 13th, Kolkata will be in the 21/22c - 11/12c range till Sunday. Monday day and night rises by 3c.

Pune: Bright sunshine...
Friday 11th/Saturday 12th: East winds dominate, temperature range for these 2 days will be 32c - 12/13c.
Sunday 13th: Winds turning SE, temperature range 32/33c - 12c.

Wednesday, January 09, 2013

J-1 moves away..J-2 on Northern regions of sub-continent within next 36 hrs....posted 11 pm Wednesday

Some Minimum Temperatures Eastern India  records broken on 9th January 2013...
*Patna 1.1c...  record 1.4c...beaten
*Digha 7.4C....  record  7.6C... record beaten
*Bankura 4.8c... record 5.1c ... record beaten
*Sri Niketan 4.9c... record 5.0c...beaten
*Bhagalpur 2.8c...  record 3.9c... record beaten
*Gaya 1.4c..  tied record

Gorakhpur -1.0c...record 1.7c...record beaten
Barielly  -0.1c ...record 0.0c...beaten

Monday, January 07, 2013

A sitting high pressure aloft extending down to sea level in Northern and Central Sub-Continent resulted in thick fog enveloping the entire Northern regions. 
Day temperatures fell to some record lows, and were as low as 7c in India and 6c in neighboring Pakistan. These are very unusual low day maximums, and 7c is most probably an all time low maximum for Amritsar. 
New Delhi neared its all time day temperature low of 9c , when it bottomed to 9.7c (Palam) and 9.8c (SJung) on 2nd Jan...
nights too broke the zero level, and the outer townships of NCR went below freezing...Delhi went down to 1.9c. Narnaul in Haryana froze at -3c....daily reports are put up on this blog. 

Frost was seen in Hindon and plains of Punjab.


Of-course, the extreme North Kashmir region also fell to below norma temperatures, with Darbuk falling to -34c, while on Monday morning (7th), Drass was at -27c and Kargil at -19c. 
Dal Lake froze as Srinagar dropped to -5.4c on Saturday night.




The last time North experienced such a cold day wave was in December 1973, when also an anti cyclone resulted in fog...see that report and current cold spell in the Vagaries Extreme blog.

Outlook for 7th, 8th and 9th January:
North:
As we see WD (J-1) approaching, it will reduce the cold impact over the plains of Northern India and Pakistan. 
The plains were chilled, and the hills were sunny and had slightly higher temperatures all these days...now with J-1, coming into the region on 9th Jan, we see the hills getting cloudy and cold..precipitation will drop the temperatures in the hills. 
A rise of 2/3c will be seen in the plains of Punjab, Haryana and UP...the extreme low days will rise from the bottom fiigures of 7c to 10c in the extreme.
A back to back WD is seen, with J-2 coming along around the 12th...

Similar weather Pakistan plains and hills of the North.

South
Low pressure off the East of Sri Lanka has an associated UAC extending NW from it. Probably the last of the NEM...
Precipitation is expected in coastal TN South of Nagapattinum and in the interiors of TN South of 10N, that is South of Madurai.

Kathmandu, which went to -0.7c on Monday, will continue to see around 0c for the next 2/3 nights.

3 Day, Tuesday 8th, Wednesday 9th and Thursday 10th, Forecast for Cities:

New Delhi and NCR: 
Tuesday: Fog clearing and thinning by afternoon and day temperature around 14/15c. 
Wednesday: Morning fog and day around 15c with early morning temperature at 6/7c. Strong NW winds keeps the wind chill effect at 13c during daytime.
Thursday: Strong NW winds in the day will keep the temperature around 15/16c, but with wind chill effect real feel around 13c...

Kolkata:
Tuesday: NW winds keep the day around 20c.
Wednesday: NW winds with day around 20c, and early morning night temperature (low) should be around 11/12c.
Thursday: Winds turn slightly West.. and the day remains around 19c and morning low at 11c.

Mumbai:
Tuesday: Clear day with patchy fog and haze. Due to initial East breeze, in the pre noon, Day temperature around 31c (SCruz) and morning low will be 13c, and 17/18c at Colaba..
Wednesday: NE winds in the morning and NW by evening. Clear with a days high of 31c and morning low will be around 16c.
Thursday: NE winds keep the day at 31c, with the night at 15/16c.

Pune: 
Tuesday/Wednesday: Days will be pleasant at 28/29c with East breeze and nights around 11c.
Thursday: With wind turning SE, and then NE, day will be around 31c, with nights at 12c.

Surat:
Tuesday/Wednesday: A marginal rise in day temperatures as wind turn East..to around 31c. The nights rising to 13/14c by Wednesday morning.
Thursday: Winds being NE, day remains at 30/31c.



Sunday, January 06, 2013

Curiosity Touches Mars at Yellowknife Bay and Drives to Snake River for Drilling...see on Space News Page




The lowest day temperatures on Sunday, 6th Jan 2012 in the Plains:
Najibabad (UP): 6.8c, Meerut  7.3c, Amritsar  7.7c, Chandigarh 9.3c...

The minimums in the plains on Monday, 7th Jan:
Narnaul  -3c, Churu -2.7c, Hissar -0.8c, Hindon -0.1c. (Arpit reports of some frost, dew freezing on his terrace near Ghaziabad).
Mumbai Scruz was 11.3c (as per IMD), Colaba was 16.3c, Pune at 7.5c and Nasik 6.4c...

In Pakistan, 0n Sunday max temps were: Multan was 6.2c, Sargodha was at 6.5c....
and minimums in the plains on Monday morning..Sibbi  -4.0c, Nokkundi  0.5c, Lahore AP 1c,  Islamabad  1.5c,  Hyderabad and Sukkur  5.5c,  Karachi 10.5c, 

Kathmandu slipped to 0.2c on sunday morning...




Some Maximum Temperatures on Sunday, 6th January:

New Delhi Sjung 11.8c , Palam 10.8c,  Amritsar 7.4c  .

Mumbai Scuz 27.4c, Colaba 27.0, Vagaries 27.4c
Pune 30.5c  Lohegaon 31.4c.  Solapur 33.6c     



5th January, Saturday, saw a cold day in the Northern plains of the sub-continent:

The day temperatures (Highs) on 5th Jan, Saturday were: 
Moradabad and Najibabad (UP) 7.2c, Amritsar 7.4c (-12c), Ludhiana 8.5c...

The Lows on 6th Jan Sunday were: Churu  -2.2c, Hissar  -1.1c, Hindon -0.2c, Gurgaon AWS  0.0c, Mt.Abu  0.0c, Muzzafarnagar  0.2c, Agra  0.5c,  Alwar  1c,  SJung  1.9c.

Mumbai chilled at 10.4c (Scruz) and Nasik was at 4.4c...
(Unofficial Private confirmations: Thane (Trevor)9.5c, Badlapur (Abhijit) 9.3c, Panvel (Office) 9.5c.
Had a thermometer installed on temporary basis for readings at the WSC (Sports Club at Mahalaxmi Race Course) where the morning reading showed 13.8c..).

In the Hills, Leh was -18c, Keylong -10c, Gulmarg -9c and Pahalgam -8c. Srinagar saw the fringes of Dal Lake frozen at -4.6c.

Across the border in Pakistan, the plains station of Joharadabad (210Kms West of Lahore) saw a day's high of 6.5c, Faisalabad 7.0c, Sialkot saw a day's high of 7.2c, Lahore 9c. 

The lows were: Sibbi was at -4.5c, Islamabad at 0c, Karachi at 10c.

Kathmandu was freezing at 0.7c as the minimum temperature...

Thursday, January 03, 2013

Lowest Maximum recorded on 4th Jan in the plains was 8.2c at Amritsar and Karnal...
Lowest (as per information till noon) on Saturday morning is   0.0c at Narnaul,  0,2c at Hindon.

Pune followed vagaries' estimate and dropped to 7.6c on Saturday morning, now lets see if the NW follows the vagaries' "after Saturday" forecast (of rise by 2/3c)

For those interested..vagaries extreme blog updated (cold wave page) with 1967 cold wave records.... 

http://vagariesmum.blogspot.in/

Coldest in the Plains near freezing as estimated...on Friday , 4th Jan,  morning...0.6c at Pilani and Hindon...




Some places in NCR and Punjab expected to slip to near freezing point on Friday Morning !

Mumbai City Forecast: 
                                 S'Cruz Temperature range: 
Friday 4th:        29c (Friday Day time) - 14c (Friday Morning)
Saturday 5th:  28c (Saturday Daytime) - 15c (Saturday Morning)
Sunday 6th:    30c (Sunday Daytime) -  17c (Sunday morning)
Monday 7th:    30c (Monday Day time) - 18c (Monday morning)

Pune:
Friday will be between 32 and morning will be 13c.
Saturday and Sunday will see a drop to 30 - 10c. 



x----------------------------------------------x--------------------------------------x---------------------------------x
The following readings are reported from IMD's designated stations for recordings... Mercury in Fathepur area of Shekhawati region touched - 2.7c mark breaking a record of 22 years on Monday, 31st December 2012..

On Thursday, 3rd Jan, the low was -0.3c....


On January 10, 1989 and 1997, the region had recorded a temperature of 0c. 


On Monday minimum temperature in Fatehpur was -2.7c, Sikar  - 0.1c and in Churu the minimum temperature was 0.4c.


(Thanks Arpit, for drawing my attention to this news).



A severe cold wave has been sweeping the Northern regions, specially the plains, from 30th December.
Some extreme lows recently recorded :

30th Dec 2012; Amritsar max temp: 9.4c...Sri Ganganagar 0.6C

31st December Lucknow AP: 0.7c...

1st Jan 2013: Hindon: 0.6c,  Churu and Narnaul: 0.7c,  Agra: 0.9c....Delhi 4c, 

2nd Jan:  Muzzafarnagar : 0.6c...Bareilly  0.9c, Aligarh 1.2c, 

Lowest Day Temperature was at Hindon at 8.4c and Sri Ganganagar   8.6c
Max on 2nd at Palam 9.7c and Sjung 9.8c. In 1973 Dec, Delhi had a max at 9c...

3rd Jan: Lowest day temp was 9.1c at Patiala. Lowest at Bikaner was 0.4c...Across the border in the plains of Pakistan, 

31st Dec 2012-- Sibbi was frozen at -5c...and the day was 24.5c, the difference a startling 29.5c between day and night.

1st Jan: Sibbi -1.5c, Nokkundi  0c, Mithi 1.0c, 

2nd Jan: Sibbi  -2.0c..., Gawadar  7c, Karachi 8.0c. 



Results of contest put up as on end Dec..
Jan entries open till 15th Jan..please note for jan no rainfall for Vhennai and Bangalore , BUT minimum temperatures for CHENNAI CITY and Bangalore to be included....

Posted Thursday 18th January Night: Dry weather expected in the India/Pakistan region till 22nd January. Delhi NCR will see hazy sun th...