Tuesday, June 30, 2015

June 2015: One Month of Monsoon from Starting date, and its covered India and parts of Eastern and South East Pakistan (see map >>>>>)

SWM enters Rajasthan ( See post Below) with heavy rains in cms as on Tuesday Morning: 
Bundi 11, Dug 9, Chothkabarwara Sr 8, Pipalda Sr 7, Nawa7, Hindoli 7, Talera Sr 7, Sanganer Tehsil Sr 7, Uniara / Aligarh 6, Jaipur Tehsil Sr 6, Bijoliya Sr 6, Ladnoo5, Didwana 3, Sujangarh 3, 


Overall Monsoon performance in India:
Seasonal Rainfall (in mm) from 1 June to 30 June, 2015
Region             Actual                   Normal                        % Departure from Long Period Average
All India             189.5                    163.6                                              16%

East & NE          352.7                    349.9                                               1%
Northwest           90.6                      69.1                                              31%
Central India      202.8                    164.3                                             23%
South Peninsula 189.2                    158.9                                             19%


North India Details for June available in Vagaries North.   

Vagaries Goa gives us Goa June details  

Konkan Details of June prepared by Vagarian Puneet Bangera


Mumbai Water supply Lakes Position on 30th June 2015:
In Mcum...Bhatsa  332, Vaitarna 89, Modak 68, Tansa 30, Vihar 8, Tulsi 5 and Middle Vairatna 122.

Total Storage 654..Presuming 33% for wastage, leakeges, Loss etc, we have 436 Mcum as storage usable. Source WRD Mah Govt..compiled by Jayesh Mehta
And taking a daily supply of 3.7 Mcum to Mumbai, Mumbai has 118 days supply available as on 30th June.

Monday, June 29, 2015

very well explained...and good information on Goa rains...histograms and charts depict well for easy understanding...See Vagaries Goa

SUNSET SKY SHOW:...30th June....See Space News Page

 South West Monsoon into Rajasthan and adjoining bordering Pakistan...Covers entire India
Favourable parameters like OLR, Surface and 850 winds and moisture


Posted Tuesday 29th Night:

Some Very heavy rain amounts from East U.P. as on Monday morning in cms

Mirzapur Tehsil 17
Ghorawal 13, Varanasi 12, Mirzapur Cwc 12, Varanasi AP 10, Deogaon Lalganj 10, Rajghat ( Cwc )9,
Gyanpur 9, Churk 8, Meja 7, Handia7, Chunar7,


Hottest place in India on 29th June was Ganganagar (Rajasthan) at 43.8c.

Hottest in Pakistan was Sibbi and Turbat at 47c.

An upper air WD brought some rains to Islamabad on Tuesday ( 4 mms).Pak Punjab region will get some showers on Wednesday, after which the WD moves eastwards.


For a couple of days from Tuesday 30th, the Axis tends to shift slightly South from Punjab thru North M.P. thru Jharkhand.

Spotty thunder showers will pop up along the axis and North of it next 2 days.

To get a Low forming in the Bay, we have the trough off the East coast getting formed by the 4th of July, and as a result we may see a Low at the Northern end of the trough off or along the Odisha coast around 5th July.


Heavy rain can occur in some places in West M.P. on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Showers will be seen in Ujjain and Indore on Tuesday and Wednesday.


Mumbai will be hot, but may get the localised thunder shower in some parts on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Saturday, June 27, 2015

Nothing much to change from the post below.....Break Monsoon conditions continue. The axis remains in the foothills of the Himalayas, and the rains continue now in Nepal, Sikkim and North Bengal.

Hotter days have started in Delhi NCR, with Palam touching 41.6c, Ayanagar 40.7c and Safdarjung 39.0c on Sunday. Amritsar was hot at  41.4c and Jaipur was 40.6c.
In Pakistan Nokkundi saw 47c, while Turbat and Sibbi were 45c, Nawabshah was 44c.  Islamabad soared to 39c.

Posted the article in Lokmat Times Monday Edtion for Marathwada and Akola regions...see Current Weather Page or
 Vagaries' article In Lokmat Times for Aurngabad and West Vidharbh Readers...Page 2
http://www.epaper.lokmat.com/lokmattimes/epapermain.aspx?queryed=78
-----------------------------------------------------------
Posted Saturday Night:

-The Monsoon axis has shifted North to the Himalayan Foothills, thus creating a "break monsoon" Scenario.
-According to vagaries, the Winds and OLR show the Monsoon is yet to move into Rajasthan.
-Vagaries feels that with the Seasonal Low pressure now (Saturday) on a high at 998 mb, it is difficult for the Monsoon to move into Rajasthan not at least in the next 7 days. The seasonal core may drop to 994 mb by mid next week.

We see days getting hotter in the Sindh Pakistan region along with Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana and Delhi in the next 5 days.
Ahmadabad, with almost no rains, seeing days rise to almost 39c. Delhi may also see hotter days at 41/42c next week.

The West coast off shore trough remains weakish, bringing little rains in the next week (Next 5 days) to the West coast and almost dry for Gujarat.

The UAC in W.Bengal soon merges and dissolves in the Axis ...Rains likely in Bihar and East U.P. next 2 days. As rains will be effective in Nepal, we may see some downstream flooding in Bihar.

No organised system in Bay till 4th July at least.

Mumbai will be hot and parly cloudy, with sunny spells, and days rising to 33/34c on Sunday.Though next week, is hot and not much rains, Mumbai may see a localised convective thunder shower on Monday or Tuesday in some parts.

Kolkata, will be hot also around 36/37c, but may get a thunder shower by Wednesday or Thursday ( An embedded UAC in the eastern trough: temporary).

Pakistan remains hot and dry..(except for extreme North)....Days hot in Sindh , with peak temperatures touching 48c in Sindh and Balochistan.
Karachi will be sunny and dry, with Sunday /Monday touching 39/40c again. But sea breeze setting in next week will lower the days to around 36/37c.

Islamabad will be partly cloudy, and hotter next week. Mid week may see around 41c. Gujrat (Pakistan) will be very hot next week, touching 44c and warm nights at 33c !...before thunder showers cool down the city by Thursday..


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted Saturday Morning:

The Monsoon Axis has shifted North, running from Punjab thru U.P. and then into a Low pressure in Bangla Desh.
In view of this, the Westerlies are blowing South of the axis, and Easterlies in the North.
As a result, South West Monsoon has now covered all the regions , except Rajasthan (according to Vagaries) , as the Seasonal Low prevails over Pakistan.

The weak off shore trough of the West Coast hold good for next 2 days.
The west coast will get weak medium rains (weak as per the normal at this time) next 2 days.
Spotty rains likely in Odisha and adjoining W.Bengal, and adjoining East M.P.
Rains expected in Utterakhand, H.P, Northern U.P. adjoining Nepal and in Nepal.

Mumbai will have partly cloudy skies with sunny spells and few passing showers. Similarly, very little rains for Delhi and Kolkata.

Will put up more details tonite by 10.30 pm IST. (There was a break in my posting also :-)

Friday, June 26, 2015

Deep Depression Leaves trail of Destruction in Gujarat with Historic Rainfall


The Deep Depression made landfall over south Gujarat coast near Diu on 23rd June 2015 and dumped historic rainfal. Amreli district was the worst hit. Bagasra got its annual rainfall in one day. 

in mm

24.06.2015

Una - 324
Gir Gadhada - 288
Malia  - 269
Kodinar  - 225
Talala - 219
Rajula - 192
Diu  - 189
Rajkot  - 167


25.06.2015

Bagasra - 636
Dhari - 511
Variyav - 400
Vadia - 393
Gondal - 257
Lodhika  - 252
Palitana - 251
Wanakbori - 245
Kotdasangani  - 237
Malpur - 216
Vadali - 200
Shahera - 194
Bhiloda - 190
Khedbrahma - 189
Godhra - 184
Lathi  - 182
Amreli - 182
Bhavnagar - 182
Savarkundla - 180
Jessar - 180
Idar - 177
Surat - 177
Vallabhipur - 177
Umrala  - 164
Meghraj - 161


























Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Mumbai Lake Storage on Mumbai Page

Massive numbers in Maharashtra. While tracking DD, we forgot Maharashtra. Some preliminary figures of rainfall ending 8.30 am on 24.06.2015

Lamaj
- 475 mm
Tapola - 472 mm
Kitwade - 369 mm
Lonawala - 363 mm
Gavase - 337 mm
Shiragaon - 310 mm

Shiragaon now has got 1816 mm rainfall from June 1st. Apart from Cherrapunji and Mawsysnaram. Only Parsons valley has got better rainfall. Lamaj comes third at  1684 mm.
Posted Tuesday Night:

AS-2, after crossing Land, is now located as a depression at 21N and 71.5E, just SE of Amreli Town.
Expected to track NE towards Bhavnagar district and weaken into a WML by tomorrow.



Heavy rains and squally weather likely on Tuesday night in Saurashtra , South Gujarat Coast and N.Konkan.Very Heavy rains also likely in Saurashtra and commencing in parts of Kutch.
Rains likely on Tuesday night in Southern and SE Sindh.


Mumbai: Squally winds and periods of heavy rains likely on Tuesday night. Some downpours will be very heavy.

Some Gujarat high rain amounts ( Starters)from Pradeep John..Till 8.30 am (23.06.15)
Choryasi - 172 mm Olpad - 157 mm Kamrej - 141 mm Diu - 118 mm Ghogha - 110 mm Valod - 104 mm Surat - 103 mm


Posted Tuesday Evening..
AS-2 crosses Gujarat coast, near Diu, late afternoon.

In Gujarat, Veraval 37 mms, Vadodra saw 14 mms, Surat, Bhavnagar  and Valsad 9 mms till 5.30 pm.
Mumbai SCruz measured 45 mms and Colaba & Vagaries  19 mms. 
Next Post 10.30 pm IST

Posted Tuesday Afternoon 2 pm IST

Medium, heavy and very heavy rainfall expected over different parts of Saurashtra, Kutch, South Gujarat and North Konkan. Squally winds expected .


Posted Tuesday Morning

As a sudden change of directional track, AS-2, A depression in the Arabian Sea, has moved Eastwards in the previous 6 hrs. Post mid night (Monday), the system suddenly took course towards East ( tracking along with an upper air trough), and moved from 67.7E ( Last Night) to 70.1E by Tuesday morning....Vagaries of the Weather !!



System can now take a NE or E/NE course, and most likely strike the south Saurashtra coast within next 12-15hrs. Due to land proximity, it may not deepen very much now.
On crossing land, it will weaken.Strong winds and thunder showers likely along south Gujarat coastline and Saurashtra coastline. Dwarka, Porbandar, Veraval will have major impact.

In a sudden change of weather, Mumbai got strong gusty winds and thunder showers from 4.30 am  Tuesday, gusting to 54 kmph and periods of intermittent heavy rains. By 8.30 am, Santa Cruz had recorded 89 mms , creating a new all time high for June by touching a total 1039 mms. Colaba manged 70 mms.

Monday, June 22, 2015

Posted Monday Night:

AS-2 is (almost) stationary since our last posting at 19.9N and 68E. Core pressure estimated at 990 mb. Completely surrounded by moist and saturated air, and with favourable shear, system can deepen to 988 mb and now move Northwards next 12-18 hrs. Likely to cross the coast near the India/Pakistan border on 24th and move NE thereafter.

Moderate (Medium to heavy) rainfall is likely in all regions of Gujarat next 2 days. Heaviest falls in Western Saurashtra and Kutch on Wednesday 24th. 
Heavy falls  likely in Southern coastal Sindh and Karachi from Tuesday night. Central and Upper Sindh get thunder showers on Tuesday and Wednesday in many places. 

Interaction with WD and Moist East Monsoon winds will increase rainfall in Northern India and Pak Punjab after Wednesday 24th.

Ahmadabad will see rainfall increasing from Tuesday night, with Wednesday 24th and Thursday 25th  getting good showers, some heavy in the region and district. Very windy from Tuesday night or Wednesday, with winds around 40 kmph. Thundershowers may be heavy on Wednesday night or Thursday.

BB-1 has weakened, and now lies over North Chattisgarh as a Low. Since it is in the axis , embedded, we can consider it has merged now.

The Eastern Vidharbh region got good rainfall today, with Nagpur getting 53 mms and Washim 30 mms in the 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm IST Monday. 
Heavy rains were also recorded from East M.P. and Chattisgarh. Raipur saw 111 mms as on 8.30 am IST Monday.

As per Monday's showers forecast for Surat, the city received 40 mms till 8.30 pm Monday. Seeing Tuesday and Wednesday with regular showers with increasing frequency.  Estimating around 25 mms per day. Would also estimate increasing showers next 2 days in Bharuch.

South West Monsoon Moving into Gujarat, U.P. (See Map alongside for current Monsoon Updated Limit).
Monsoon expected in Delhi on 26th June (including H.P, Haryana and Punjab).

Mumbai Santa Cruz has reached a total of 954 mms as on Monday evening. The highest ever June total for Scruz is 1037 mms in 1971. 
Colaba has totaled 763  in the same period. The highest ever June total for Colaba is 1208 mms in 1985. 
Next 2 days, Tuesday and Wednesday, I would expect showers in Mumbai, shorter duration, but heavy at times. Not prolonged. Next 2 days, would expect around 75-90 mms cumulative.

Rainfall gradually increasing in Kolkata from Wednesday..
Monsoonal Precipitation in Delhi NCR from 25th, as Monsoon advances around 26th....and first day may see phenomenal heavy rain.
Top Rainfall in Maharashtra (22.06.2015)
===========================
This is massive and for 2nd day Maharashtra is battered.
1. Bamnoli - 411 mm
2. Lamaj - 410 mm
3. Ambavali - 395 mm
4. Tapola - 388 mm
5. Mahabaleshwar - 366 mm
6. Bhutonde - 340 mm
7. Shirgaonvsh - 336 mm
8. Jor - 322 mm
9. Shirgaon - 322 mm
10. Ghisar - 321 mm
11. Varandoli - 309 mm
12. Sonat - 305 mm
13. Margtamhane - 292 mm 
from Pradeep John

Mumbai was very close to our estimate for Saturday/Sunday cumulative rains...recording an average 0f 230 mms against estimated"around 200 mms"..Santacruz totals 950 mms from 1st June...nearing the all time June total of 1037 mms in 1971.
Mahableshwar saw 366 mms in 24 hrs ended Monday morning...more figures coming from Pradeep, our Rainman !

Posted Sunday Night:

BB-1 has crossed the Odisha coast, and as anticipated, poured heavy rains in the State. Many Cities in Odisha got heavy rains on Saturday and Sunday. Amongst them , Umerkot 207 mms, Malkangiri 206 mms, Udaygiri 158 mms,  Junagrh 135 mms, Jeypore saw 132 mms, Mahendragarh 131 mms, Gudari 127 mms, Gopalpur 113 mms, Jalpatna 108 mms,


South Chattigarh was informed of heavy rains as Jagdalpur measured 151 mms.

Adjoining Vidarbh and M.P. .Sunday rains in the other surrounding Cities:
Nagpur got 45 mms overnight and another 33 mms on Sunday till 8.30 pm. Indore received 59 mms on Sunday till 8.30 pm. 
Heavy Rains expected in Vidarbh and adjoining East MP on Monday.
Pune too had a wet day with 35 mms in the day on Sunday.

AS-2 (Erroneously, Vagaries had numbered this system as AS-1 in last posts. Regret the error) is now deepened , but practically stationary at 19.9N and 67.7E as on Sunday evening. Now having a core estimated pressure at 992 mb, and classified as Well Marked Low by IMD, system will deepen more, to around 988 mb next 24 hrs...South Quadrant winds, supported by Monsoon winds , are strong at around 45-55 knts. Cloud cover is mostly in the  West of the system.


AS-2 is now having strong ultra moist air is already enveloping it, and no shear resistance, it will track initially NW. After being stationary for another 12-18 hrs, it will track initially NW, and then after 18-24 hrs move Northwards. Would expect the system to meanwhile deepen to a low of 988 mb, and just weaken before crossing land around the International Border (India/Pakistan).


Coastal Sindh and adjoining Kutch can get showers on 23rd/24th , with heavy falls in SE Sindh and Kutch on 24th/25th. Inter action with Northerly trough with the upper axis will also bring showers to rest of Sindh from Monday, possibly increasing on Tuesday and Wednesday as AS-2 moves inland. Hot spots like Larkana and Jacobabad and Upper Sindh will get some relief thunder squalls possibly from Monday night thru Wednesday.

Showers expected in Karachi on 24th and 25th. Karachi is extremely Hot at 45c on 19th June, with 20th again touching 44.8c. Minimum 21st was a gruelling 33c !! Read more in Vagaries Pakistan.
Turbat in Pakistan was hottest at 48.5c.

Mumbai Colaba got 32 mms, Vagaries 33 mms and Santa cruz 49 mms on Sunday in 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm IST.


Mumbai City is not going to be directly affected by the system AS-2. As the system tracks, the SW winds will weaken marginally, not strengthen.

Hence, Monday Tuesday, Mumbai can expect frequent showers, some heavy but with limited duration, not prolonged. Accumulated rainfall for Monday and Tuesday will be around 100 mms...
As on Sunday morning, Vihar Lake received 140 mms, Tulsi 120 mms, and Vaitarna, Tansa and Middle Vaitarna 20 mms each. (Figures are rounded to mms).

Surat, will see some showers on Monday with cloudy skies, around 15 -20 mms. Rains marginally increasing on Tuesday night thru Wednesday. 

2nd day of Massive Rains in Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 21.06.2015
===================================
The Depression over Bay Of Bengal, off Odisha coast had made landfall  between Gopalpur & Puri on 21st morning. It will move further inland and merge with the monsoon axis thereby pushing the onset of monsoon over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and West Bengal in the coming days.

in mm (min 15 mm)

Parsons Valley - 230
Upper Bhavani - 133
Ooty  - 133
Naduvattam  - 98
Lower Nirar - 68
Ketti  - 60
Emerald - 59
Porthimund - 49
Valparai PTO - 46
Sholayar - 41
Kundha Bridge - 40
Pykara - 40
Kodimudiyaru - 40
Kannimar - 33
Glenmorgan - 31
Lower Kodayar - 29
Upper Kodayar - 29
G Bazar  3
Sandyanallah - 27
Pechiparai - 25
Kottaram - 25
Chinnakallar - 22
Valparai Taluk Office - 21
Adayamadai - 21
Periyakulam - 20
Thuckalay - 20
Surulode - 20
Mylaudy - 20
Aralvoimozhi - 20



Massive Rains in Nilgiris and Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu rainfall ending 8.30 am on 20.06.2015
===========================================
The well marked low pressure area over Bay of Bengal, off South Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh coasts has concentrated into a Depression. The System would cross Odisha coast between Gopalpur and Puri on 21st afternoon.

in mm (min 30 mm)

Parsons Valley - 342
Upper Bhavani - 240
Avalanche - 225
Emeralad - 117
Porthimund - 110
Sholayar - 100
Makkinampatti - 89
Lower Nirar - 85
Valparai PTO -  82
Chinnakalar  - 77
Manakadavu - 75
Devala  - 63
Mukurthy - 60
Negamam - 60
Pollachi  - 60
Ketti - 52
Upper Kodayar - 49
Periyar  - 47
Chincona - 47
K Bridge  - 46
Naduvattam - 45
Papanasam  - 44
Valparai Taluk Office  - 44
Gudalur Bazar - 44
Sultanpet - 37
Glenmorgan - 36
Lower Kodayar - 30


Saturday, June 20, 2015

Position as on Saturday Afternoon:

Arabian Sea Low (AS-1) at Location and estimated core pressure 994 mb
BB-1 a depression at 992 mb and South Quadrant winds estimated at 55-60 knots



Friday, June 19, 2015

Posted Friday Night:
South West Monsoon Advances into Complete Maharashtra, South M.P. Chattisgarh, Odisha and West Bengal (Kolkata) on 19th June.

Cool Friday, with the day high seeing 26c, Mumbai showers eased out by night as mentioned in our Friday morning Forecast, and the 12 hrs rainfall for Mumbai averaged 106 mms (Estimated 90 mms by Vagaries). SantaCruz saw 136 mms and Colaba 106 mms in the 12 hs period.
Mumbai forecast as given in friday Morning post stays valid...

BB-1, Located off the Odisha Coast at 994 mb on Friday, will deepen to 992 mb by Saturday and cross the Odisha coast on Saturday night. Heavy rains expected on Saturday night and Sunday in Coastal A.P. South Chattisgarh (Raipur on Sunday) and Eastern Vidarbh (Nagpur, Chandrapur and Wardha).

The Low in the Arabian Sea, at 996 mb , is currently South off the Gujarat coast. Likely to get better organised to around 992 mb and remain practically stationary next 24 hrs.

As it develops, Coastal Sindh ( including Karachi) can get some rain on Sunday.

The Heavy Rainfall figures as cautioned for Telengana yesterday; Rainfall as on 24 hrs ended Friday Morning:
KHANAPUR    146.4 WARANGAL
KUNAVARAM    138.6 KHAMMAM
MANTHANI   130.4 KARIMNAGAR
DORNAKAL   100.2            WARANGAL
GUDUR                 98.4      WARANGAL
NARSAMPET         96.8      WARANGAL
CHENNARAOPET 92.4      WARANGAL
ETURNAGARAM 91.6       WARANGAL
ATMAKUR            91.4        WARANGAL
KOTHAGUDEM 83.4        WARANGAL
CHINTHAKAM      83.0       KHAMMAM
MULUGU(ARG) 83.0        WARANGAL
BHUPALPALLE 82.0        WARANGAL
CHANDRUGONDA 81.2      KHAMMAM
NALLABELLY         80.2     WARANGAL

GARLA                 76.2      KHAMMAM


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rainfall till 2.30 pm IST Friday..Scruz 56 mms, 
The wind chart (2 pm IST Friday) shows the effect of the UAC at 700 levels on both sides.BB-1 at upper level and the Upper Level trough, or the upper level Monsoon axis explained in our earlier post.The upper axis is clearly seen.



And this one at Sea Level shows BB-1 and the weak Low in the Arb Sea
See the SW winds hitting Mumbai Coast. in both Maps

Mumbai Lakes Rainfall as on Friday Morning  (Previous 24 hrs)
Vihar 223 mms, Tulsi 191 mms, Vaitarna 5 mms,Upper Vaitarna 8 mms, Bhatsa 15 mms, Tansa 9 mms and Modak Sagar 6 mms.

Thursday, June 18, 2015

 Posted Friday Noon:
Mumbai Scruz measured 36 mms in 3 hrs till 11.30 am IST Friday...
The rains continue into Friday in Mumbai, and as seen from the wind charts, Mumbai is having a dual effect of 700  mb winds (SW) and now, a rush of W/SW winds at sea level, due to effect of the Bay Low , BB-1. Winds are rushing at sea level almost thru the peninsula into BB-1.

Friday Mumbai will get heavy downpours , and may relent, ease out at night. But day time showers will aggravate the flooding scene, as will measure around 75-90 mms by 8.30 pm. Night will see lesser rains.
Saturday will see intermittent showers, but may measure less at around 45-50 mms in the day till 8.30 pm.
Sunday, will also be similar to Saturday, but rainfall increasing on Sunday night.
Saturday and Sunday (night included) may see around 200 mms accumulated till Monday morning.

Heavy rains expected in  A.P.,Telengana and adjoining Vidharbh this weekend.
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimates of all Models Washed off...Mumbai does it Again !!
Rainfall in last 24 hrs (ended 8.30 am) and Seasonal Total...Santa Cruz 283.4 mms ( 536.4 mms), Vagaries 221 mms 526 mms) and Colaba 208.8 mms  ( 514.5 mms).


Ratnagiri 135 mms and Panaji Goa 102 mms in same period.Aurangabad got a downpour on Thursday Night dumping 59 mms in 2 hours.

Posted Thursday Night:

BB-1 Deepens to 996 mb in the same position...
UAC in the Arabian Sea SW of Gujarat coast also persists...Now descended to 850 mb level.

Mumbai : .as the UAC Deepened, we see a strong gush of SW winds at all levels (upto 700) hitting the North Konkan Coast. We also get Vagarians reporting heavy rains in the Northern Outer Townships like Mira Road. 

Thursday saw more rains than estimated..83 mms average in 12 hrs...Expecting another average of 40 mms Thursday night.would bring an average of 125 mms by 8.30 Friday for Mumbai.( seeing the vast area Mumbai covers, we take an average of Colaba and Scruz readings.)

The Movement and behaviour of the Arabian Sea UAC will directly affect the Mumbai weather next 3 days...but, as current indications show...A wet Weekend
Friday/Saturday/Sunday Mumbai may see very frequent intermittent heavy showers, with gusty winds. I would put a cumulative average rainfall of around 190-210 mms (for Friday/Saturday/Sunday).

Thursday's Rainfall Thursday till 8.30 pm IST (12hrs)
Mumbai Scruz 96 mms
Mumbai Colaba 67 mms
Vagaries 68 mms
Thane AWS 48 mms
Ratnagiri 67 mms
Panaji Goa 53 mms
Akola 14 mms
Vizag 27 mms
Bhubaneshwar 7 mms
Rajkot 9 mms

Till 5.30 pm IST
Alibag 19 mms
Mahableshwar 24 mms
Honavar 19 mms

No rains in Surat and Pune till 8.30 pm.

Seasonal Rainfall Totals (in mms) till 8.30 am Thursday (Brackest indicate same date total in 2014)

Mumbai Colaba 305  (54)
Scruz 253  (80)
Ratnagiri  393  (138)
Pune  82 (12)

Ghats in Maharashtra
Koyna - 45 (annual average 5000 mm)
Matheran - 85 (annual average 5500 mm)
Mahabaleshwar -175 (annual average 6000 mm)   (133)
Lamaj - 177 (annual average ~ 6000 mm)
Patherpunj - 302 (annual average over 6000 mm)
Bhmashankar - 195  (annual average 7000 mm)
Gaganbawada - 307 (annual average 6000 mm)
Amboli - 326 (annual average 7000 mm)
Dajipur- 451 (annual average 6000 mm)
Kitwade - 108 (annual average 6300 mm)

Ghats in Karnataka
Agumbe - 377 (annual average 7500 mm)
Hulikal - 327 (annual average 8000 mm)
Mastikatte - 261 (annual average 7500 mm)

Ghats in Kerala
Neeriyamangalam - 148 (annual average 6000 mm)
Kuttiyadi - 321 (annual average 5500 mm)

Ghats Rainfall courtesy Pradeep John.

Rains approaching Hyderabad,,seeing rains Thursday Night..


Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Posted Wednesday 17th, Night: 
(Mumbai Lake Position Below Article.)

A low pressure, BB-1, has formed off the Odisha coast in the Bay. It is estimated at around 998 mb initially. Expected to move NW and merge in the Monsoon Axis.

An UAC has also formed in the Arabian Sea South of Gujarat, at the 500/700 mb levels. This UAC, is expected to descend to sea level and maintain a circulation at the upper levels also.

The UAC in the Arabian Sea and the BB-1 with its associated UAC will form an upper air monsoon axis running West-East between the 2 UAC's.
The Sea Level Monsoon axis (Currently roughly along the Monsoon progress line) is now expected to move Northwards. 

The South West Monsoon is moving into Gujarat state, Southern regions of M.P., Chattisgarh., and central Odiasha. These regions will see the Monsoon advance on 18th June in totality.
Very heavy rains are likely in Odisha, Coastal A.P.  on Thursday and Friday. Potential of very heavy rains in Telengana and Vidharbh on Saturday and Sunday.

The Monsoon will move into Bengal (Kolkata), and rest of M.P, and Odisha around 19th/20th June.

The West Coast trough will strengthen and will have the UAC at its Northern tip by 19th June.
Persistent gradient, and tilting lower with height, a Low will form in the Mid Arabian Sea almost W/SW off Gujarat State by 20th.

City forecast for Thursday 18th, Friday 19th, Saturday 20th..

Mumbai: Wet Days ahead for the  city. Next few days, Thursday, Friday and Saturday will see "on off Showers" in regular intervals. With an average daily rainfall of around 25 mms. We will review the situation and see the behaviour of the UAC and West coast trough next 2 days. 
But, as of today, for Sunday and Monday, I estimate an increase in Mumbai rains to a daily average of 80 mms . So, next 6 days (till Tuesday), we can expect 250 mms cumulative.

Eastern Outer Townships of Mumbai will see increase in rainfall from Friday thru Sunday. Heavy showers on Saturday and Sunday.

Pune: Pune, wait for 2 more days for rains to increase..Friday, Pune can expect fairly good rains , at least 25-30 mms with thunder. Again, Friday night thru Saturday will be rainy with another 60 mms. Cool day on Saturday and Sunday, not exceeding 25/26c.

Surat: A comparatively dry patch of 3 days with little rain. Will be broken on Sunday evening with showers.

Hydrerabad: Very heavy rauns expected on Thursday, maybe 70 mms. Cool day with high around 26c..rains extend into Friday..lessening by afternoon.Heavy rains possible on Sunday.

Aurangabad: Expect heavy thunder showers on Friday and Saturday..around 30-35 mms on Friday and 20 mms on Saturday.

Kolkata: As monsoon creeps into the City of Joy, Thunder showers expected on Saturday 20th and Sunday 21st. As the system BB-1 tracks away, we may see a decrease in precipitation Next week...keeping options open.

Bhubaneshwar: With the Monsoon moving in, except for the odd thunder showers on Thursday, we see real increase in precipitation from Saturday (maybe evning).

Raipur: With Monsoon advancing, increase in rains from Friday. Friday thru Tuesday will see  daily rains and thunder showers. Around 75 -80 mms cumulative in 6 days. Days getting cooler from Sunday, to average 32c.
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Mumbai Lakes Position as on 17th June: Bhatsa 250, U.Vaitarna 51, M.Vaitarna 96, Modak 54, Tansa 10, Vihar 1 and Tulsi 2..Total 464 Mcum. We take and deduct 33% for leakages, wastage and minimum drawable level..so we have 310 Mcum Storage. Supply at 3.7 Mcum per day... Mumbai has 84 days water in Store...Source WRD Mah Govt...Credit Jayesh Mehta.

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Posted Wednesday Afternoon:

An UAC has formed in the Bay off the Odisha coast at 700 mb level...Expected to persist at that level, while descending to Sea level as a Low ( BB-1) by Wednesday Night.

The upper level trough at 700 level extends Westwards from the UAC to the Arabian Sea ...We can expect another UAC at the Western end of the upper trough W/SW or maybe S of Gujarat in the Arabian Sea.
This will be the Northern tip of the already strengthening Off Shore Trough ( West Coast). The strengthening is seen as the isobars are dropping, the 1000 mb bar now over Mumbai, and 1004 mb bar over North Kerala.


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 Posted Tuesday Night:

A UAC is expected to form along/off the Odisha coast by the 17th. This UAC will strengthen at 700 mb level, and deepen at that altitude. The system can descend, but deepen with height on constant location by the 19th.
BB-1 is expected to form in the Bay off the Odhisha coast by the 18th of June..Initially as a Low at 1000 mb. Expected to deepen in the waters to 998 mb off the Odhisha cost by 20th June. 
BB-1 will cross the Odisha coast around 20th at 998/996 mb ,and track NW.
The Monsoon axis is expected to Move to its normal position by this time. 

As the axis moves North, S.W.Monsoon will cover Odisha, Chattisgarh and W.Bengal starting from 18th June..gradually moving . 
Expecting into Kolkata after 19th June..
Monsoon will start moving into Eastern U.P. after 20th June.


Mumbai will get the occasional showers next 3 days, with the average rainfall around 10-15 mms per day. No persistent constant rainfall till Friday...
Mumbai santa Cruz received 23 mms till 8.30 pm IST (12 hrs) Tuesday. Vagaries (South Mumbai) measured 10.7 mms in the same period.

Gujarat Special:

Saurashtra and South Gujarat region, at some specific Places, have got super and abnormal "pre monsoon" rains this year..


Saurashtra:

Gondal....last 24 hrs 105 mms...Total In June 428 mms...That is 68% of the total Seasonal Rains !!
Kotdasangani...Total  In June 183 mms...29% of the seasonal Total  !!

South Gujarat


Valsad District: Totals In June: Kaprada  301 mms...Seasonal total for Kaprada is 2885 mms., Valsad 221 mms, Umergam 216 mms,  Pardi 199 mms.

Bharuch District: Jambuser got 45 mms rains in last 24 hrs ended Tuesday Morning. 

Bharuch has received 94 mms till Tuesday Morning (Total). 
Jhagadia is the wettest till today in Bharuch District with a total rainfall of 143 mms. 

Surat District: Highest is Umerpada with a total rainfall 186 mms, Chorasiya 185 mms, Palsana 166 mms and Mangrol 127 mms.


Dhari in Amreli District has got 174 mms total.


Report on BB-1 and Monsoon advancing into Odisha and Bengal on blog later tonight..11 pm IST

Monday, June 15, 2015

Very good pre monsoon rains in Saurahtra..and other Parts of South Gujarat...Gondal has seen almost 300 mms in last 3 days...50% of the annual rains...Bharuch saw 81 mms today, and Umerpada (Surat District) has totalled 186 mms till today, Surat saw 75 mms on Saturday..Total rains in Kaprada (Valsad) 267 mms Umergam 187 mms and Valsad 184 mms. 
Waghai in Dang has totalled 228 mms till today.

Mumbai Colaba Recorded 30 mms and Scruz 6 mms in the day on Monday..

A low can form in the Bay off the Odisha coast around 19th June....Initially an UAC, it will descend to sea level by the 19th...Low, which we will number BB-1, will track along the upper level Axis and sea level axis...that is tentatively W/NW from Odisha coast...and bringing precipitation along the path...more later...

Mid June report of Monsoon progress for Goa makes some interesting reading! Vagaries Goa Edition updated 

Gondal, Gujarat...14th/15th June
Pic sent by Mukesh Chandarana