Monday, March 30, 2015

Super Takes of a Thunder Storm on Wednesday 1st April in Gujrat (Pakistan ) Sent and taken by Waqas....





Maharashtra's Change from Rainy season to Summer (42c in some places and 40.8c in Mumbai) to "Wintery drop" in April...Minimum Temperatures on 1st April..
Ahmadnagar 13.1c, Nasik 14.4c, Pune 14.4c, Shirdi (AWS) 14.3c, Badlapur ( Abhijit) 17.1c, Vagaries (Club obs) 20.3c, Mumbai (Santa Cruz ) 19.6c.

Mumbai, from Wednesday 1st April - Sunday 5th April will not be seeing much fluctuation in temperatures. Unlike last week, the days will be around 33/34c (SantaCruz), with an evening west breeze, seeing lows around 24c.Wednesday and Thursday will see less sweaty conditions, as the day humidity could drop to a low of 40-45%. Slight rise to 65% from Friday.

Posted Tuesday 31st March....Satellite Image of Tuesday Night...


M-5 has precipitated widespread rains in North Pakistan and Northern India. Kashmir has received heavy rains as shown in the post below ( Remember: M-5 was predicted to reach sub continent on 29th March in Vagaries in the post dated 18th March.) 

Rainfall details of Pakistan are given in our Vagaries Pakistan Section

Now, what ? Are the WDs ending with the change of the Month ? No way...M-5 finishes by Month end....And on April 2nd, A-1 moves into the Sub Continent menacingly !!

1st April.: rains in Northern Pakistan, 
But A-1 tightens its grip as on 2nd and 3rd April, almost all of Pakistan from Sindh to Northern regions get rains. In India, Kashmir, HP, plains of Punjab. Haryana and Northern Rajasthan are to receive rains. 
Rains continue in above regions and MP on 4th April.

Parts of Saurashtra get thunder showers on 5th April. Many regions in Sindh get showers on 5th April.

A rainy and wet 1st week for North, NW and Central India. Pakistan too will be wet and raining, initially from Sindh to Northern regions, and then Central and North Pakistan on 3rd April.

Thunder Storms (Nor'westers) continue for another day in Kolkata...then seeing rise in day temperatures to touch 40c by Friday, before violent storms set in again from Saturday.
Vagaries' forecasted thunderstorm on Sunday. A storm hit the city on Monday...some pics from vagarian Santosh..





Rains occurring in Kerala and adjoining hilly region of TN throughout this week from Tuesday 31st to 4th April.

Except for some isolated showers on 31st in Satara and adjoining districts  the weather will be dry in Mahartashtra this week.

Coonoor records 4th 100 mm rainfall of 2015, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 01.04.2015

The cyclonic circulation over Lakshdweep area and neighbourhood persists and now extends upto 1.5 kms a.s.l.

Why is Coonoor getting Heavy Rainfall ?

Coonoor gets its 4th 100 mm rainfall this year. No other place has even come close to Coonoor's spell this year even Kashmir or Himachal. Whys is it Coonoor getting such heavy spells. As you all know why Cherrapunji gets heavy rainfall, the moisture laden South West Monsoon winds gets trapped in the Khasi hills valley and thereby getting legendry rains.

Coonoor as you know is one of wettest place in India during North East Monsoon. The valley is placed such that winds can come into the valley only from east and gets locked. For the past one month, the UAC's are moving from Comrin Sea into Arabian Sea. while they move into Arabian Sea the wind is from east and its moisture gets locked in the Coonoor valley there by creating heavy rains, these rains last only for 1-3 hours. In this short span of it pours with very heavy intensity. The super spells in Coonoor in 2015. In all the 4 cases, it was a UAC moving into Arabian Sea from Comrin Sea.

01.04.2015 - Coonoor PTO - 131 mm
16.03.2015 - Coonoor PTO - 123 mm
08.03.2015 - Coonoor PTO - 125 mm
06.03.2015 - Coonoor PTO - 113 mm 


in mm (min 5 mm)


Coonoor PTO, Nilgiris - 131
Coonoor, Nilgiris - 121
Coonoor Agro, Nilgiris - 108
Muthupet, Tiruvarur - 40
Kothagiri, Nilgiris - 32
Thuraiyur, Trichy - 26
Bodinaickanur, Theni - 22
Melpuram, Kanyakuamri - 22
Sivagiri, Tirunelveli - 20
Thenkasi, Tirunelveli - 20
Rajapalayam, Virudhunagar - 20
Narikudi, Virudhunagar - 20
Palayamkottai, Tirunelveli - 19
Manjalar, Theni - 18
Vembakottai, Virudhunagar - 17
Tirunelveli, Tirunelveli - 17
Kallikudi, Madurai - 16
Glenmorgan, Nilgiris - 5
Pillur, Coimbatore - 14
Nagercoil, Kanyakumari - 10
Kulasekaharam, Kanyakumari - 10
Sothupparai, Theni - 9
Kariapatti, Virudhunagar - 9
Srivilliputhur, Virudhunagar - 8
Kovilankulam, Virudhunagar - 7
Kanyakumari, Kanyakumari - 7
Periyakulam, Theni - 7
Thuckalay, Kanyakumari - 6
Uthagamandalam, Nilgiris - 6
Pattukottai, Thanjavur - 5
Perunchani, Kanyakumari - 5
Keelapavoor, Tirunelveli - 5
Kayattar,Thoothukudi - 5
Pegumbahallah, Coimbatore - 5
Emerland, Nilgiris - 5

Bordoichila continues to hit Assam and Arunachal, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 01.04.2015

The  trough  from  SubHimalayan West Bengal & Sikkim to north Bay of Bengal now lies as a cyclonic circulation extending upto 2.1 kms a.s.l. over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and neighbourhood

in mm (min 10 mm)

Arunachal

Tuting - 70
Arzoo - 65
Etalin - 56
Bordumsa - 50
Anini - 49
Khupa - 39
Tezu - 39
Pasighat - 33
Namsai - 30
Wakra - 30
Miao - 28
Tirap - 26
Itanagar - 14
Geku - 11
Basar - 10
Changlang - 10

Assam

Gharmura - 110 
Margherita - 50
Beki Mathanguri - 30 
Tinsukia - 21,
Kakipather - 21
Lakhipur - 20
Dholai - 20
Dhollabazar - 20
Harinagar - 17
Golaghat - 16 
Chouldhowaghat - 15
Kherunighat - 14
Kampur - 14
Lumding - 14
Matijuri - 14
Silchar - 13
Bihpuria - 12
Udalguri - 11
Amraghat - 10
Morang - 10
Nazira - 10

2nd day of heavy rains in Karnataka, ending 8.30 am on 01.04.2015

The cyclonic circulation over Lakshdweep area and neighbourhood persists and now extends upto 1.5 kms a.s.l.

in mm (min 20 mm)

Aithoor - 83
Bilinele - 83
Kadaba - 79
Sulya - 66
Chitturu - 55
Kallambalu - 55
Chitradurga - 55
Dandeli - 54
Chikknavangala - 49
Bantenahalli - 49
Yamasandi - 49
Belur - 45
Konanjageri - 44
Kikkeri - 43
Kota - 36
Bukkambudi - 32
Horakeredevarpur HD - 32
Koila - 31
Ankasandra - 29
Nagamangala - 29
Jinnur - 28
Napoklu - 28
Albadi - 27
Londa - 26
Alur (H) - 26
Sukravarsanthe - 25
Ankasandra - 24
Taraka - 23
Sunkasal - 22
Kairakunda - 22
Gonibeedu - 21
Koppa - 20
Kokkada - 20
Rabakavi - 20
Channahally - 20
Amparu - 20
Shanthahalli - 20
Sringeri - 20
Harti - 20
Asangi - 20
Mandya PTO - 20

1st big Norwestor of the season hits Bengal and Odisha, Rainfall ending. 8.30 am on 31.03.2015

The upper air trough from Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim to Chattisgarh now lies from Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim to north Bay of Bengal at 0.9 km above sea level.

in mm (min 10 mm)

West Bengal

Mahua Tea Estate - 68
Santiniketan ­ 60
Gheropara - 55
Murti - 54
Salt Lake - 49
Barrackpore - 43
Katwa - 41
Malbazar ­ 41
Malda - 39
Sekhampur - 34
Pedong ­ 32
Kolkata AP - 32
Panagarh - 29
Darjeeling - 25
Bagdogra - 23
Kolkata - 23
Aasanol - 23
Itahar - 21
Kalimpong - 19
Balurghat - 17
Jalpaiguri - 16
Chopra - 16
Magra - 15
Diamond Harbour - 15
Basirhat - 13
Kalyani - 13
Berhampure - 11
Krishnanagar - 11
Contai - 10
Kharagpur - 10
Uluberia - 10

Odisha

Rairangpur - 60
Daspalla - 39
Samakhunta - 30
Bissem - 30
Similiguda - 24
Muniguda - 22
Kaptipada - 21 
Kotraguda - 21
Nawana - 20
Jaipur - 20
Sorada - 19
Baripada - 18
Balasore - 15
Gania - 13
Koraput - 11
Joshipur - 10
Nilgiri - 10

Muthupet and Kanykumari gets heavy rainfall, TN rainfall ending 8.30 am on 31.03.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. ov er Comorin - Maldives area now lies over Lakshdweep area and neighbourhood. 
in mm (min 5 mm)

Muthupet, Tiruvarur - 98
Melpuram, Kanyakumari - 76
Tuticorin, Toothukudi - 34
Thoothukudi Port, Toothukudi - 31
Anaikadangu, Kanyakumari - 5
Nagercoil, Kanyakumari - 19
Mambazamthuryaru, Kanyakumari - 18
Koliporvilai, Kanyakumari - 17
Sivagiri, Tirunelveli - 14
Adyamadai, Kanyakumari - 13
Pechiparai, Kanyakumari - 12
Chittar II, Kanyakumari - 12
Chittar I, Kanyakumari - 11
Tiruchendur, Toothukudi - 10
Killiyoor, Kanyakumari - 10
Srivaikuntam, Toothukudi - 9
Bhoothapandy, Kanyakumari - 8
Karunkulam, Thoothukudi - 8
Eraniel, Kanyakumari - 7
Ottapadiram, Toothukudi - 6
Kovilpatti, Toothukudi - 5
Thuckalay, Kanyakumari - 5
Sattur, Virudhunagar - 5
Neyoor, Kanyakumari - 5
Perunchani, Kanyakumari - 5
Kulasekaharam, Kanyakumari - 5
Karuthancode, Kanyakumari - 5
Puthen Dam, Kanyakumari - 5
Mullanikivilai, Kanyakumari - 5

LWD gives Karnataka heavy rainfall, ending 8.30 am on 31.03.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. ov er Comorin - Maldives area now lies over Lakshdweep area and neighbourhood. A wind discontinuity from the above cyclonic circulation persists from south Madhya Maharashtra across Kerala and interior Karnataka.

in mm (min 15 mm)

Paduvari - 107
Yadthare - 107
Siddapura (U) - 74
Nisarani - 60
Puttige - 51
Karopadi - 47
Udupi - 46
Mevundi - 45
Meguda - 40
Vendse - 39
Vitla - 37
Kuppe - 35
Surathkal - 34
Jayapura (C) - 31
Ajekar - 30
Holalu - 30
Shigli - 29
Chandriki - 29
Habal - 28 
Lingampalli - 28
Nidugunda - 28
Sampaje - 27
Koppa - 24
Susgadi - 24
Bhatkal - 19
Chittapur - 18
Sitanadi - 18
Shirali - 17
Targod - 16
Puttur - 16
Kerveshe - 16
Sagar - 15
Kuppepadavu - 15
Mani - 15
Nandibevur - 15


Historic March Rains in Kashmir, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 30.03.2015

M-5 with a trough aloft in upper & mid tropospheric westerlies, roughly along Longitude 73.0°E and north of Latitude 25.0°N.

in mm (min 40 mm)

Katra - 139
Batote - 124
Govindpura - 121
Jammu - 98
Kukernag - 85
Banihal - 72
Qazigund - 70
Chatha - 69
Bhaderwah - 66
Anantnag - 64
Khudwani - 56
Pahalgam - 58
Baramullah - 53
Srinagar - 51
Malangpura - 50
Rambagh - 47
Zainapora - 42
Gulmarg - 40

Maharashtra gets heavy rainfall, ending 8.30 am on 30.03.2015

The Trough from Arunachal Pradesh to Odisha across Gangetic West Bengal now extends from Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim to odisha with an embedded upper air cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand and Neighbourhood and extends upto 0.9 kms above mean sea level.

in mm (min 15 mm)

Thergaon - 80
Tathwade - 69
Amboli (Junnar) - 44
Amadapur - 35
Chikhli - 32
Joiti - 30
Akole - 30
Otur - 30
Dimbe - 29
Bhosari - 28
Chinchwad - 26
Patan - 25
Dimbhe - 22
Ambegaon - 22
Kasbevani - 21
Anewadi - 20
Pune Lavale - 19
Pune NDA - 18
Varthi - 18
Bela - 18
Bhandara - 18
Khadakwasla - 17
Morshi - 17
Pune Pashan - 16
Akodi - 16
Aaptale - 15
Aamgaon - 15
Khamari - 15
Kondha - 15
Manchar - 15
Bagh Shirpur - 15

 

Himachal gets rains from WD, ending 8.30 am on 30.03.2015

M-5 lies over North Pakistan & neighbourhood with a trough aloft in upper & mid tropospheric westerlies, roughly along Longitude 73.0°E and north of Latitude 25.0°N.

in mm (min 15 mm)

Manali - 52
Gohar - 41
Seobagh - 38
Bhandal - 36
Kalpa - 35
Sangla - 31
Kumarsain - 30
Kukumsheri - 28
Reckon - 27
Joginder Nagar - 26
Bhuntar - 22
Sundernagar - 21
Bijahi - 21
Hamirpur - 20
Bangana - 20
Bajaura - 19
Tissa - 18
Mehre - 18
Rohru - 17
Kothipura - 16
Kalatop - 16
Manikaran - 16
Dalhousie - 15
Leo - 15

Rain in Kanyakumari for 3rd day, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 30.03.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l lies over Comorin -Maldives area.

in mm (min 5 mm)

Anaikadangu, Kanyakumari - 40
Nagercoil, Kanyakumari - 38
Mambazhathuraiyaru, Kanyakumari - 32
Koliporvilai, Kanyakumari - 32
Thuckalay, Kanyakumari - 27
Kulasekharam, Kanyakumari - 27
Shencottah, Tirunelveli - 26
Tiruchendur, Toothukudi - 17
Srivaikuntam, Toothukudi - 16
Eraniel, Kanyakumari - 14
Adayamadai, Kanyakumari - 13
Killiyoor, Kanyakumari - 13
Suralode, Kanyakumari - 12
Neyoor, Kanyakumari - 8
Mullankivilai, Kanyakumari - 7
Colachel, Kanyakumari - 5
Kurunthancode, Kanyakuamari -  5
Radhapuram, Tirunelveli - 5
Illayangudi, Sivaganga - 5

Sunday, March 29, 2015


Its time for Live update of Maharashtra Rainfall till 10.00 pm on 29.03.2015 from Vagaries Rainman
in mm
Tathwade - 69  Amboli (Junnar) - 43  Dimbe - 29  Chinchwad - 26
Pune Lavale - 19  Pune NDA - 18  Pune Pashan - 18
Ambegaon - 14  Bhimashankar - 10  Sakoli - 9  Nigade - 9  Chilewadi - 8 Bhamaaskedha - 7
Manikodh - 6  Chaskaman - 6  Golegaon - 6  Malewadi - 5  Morshi - 5


The forecasted WD arrives, pouring 37 mms in Srinagar from 08.30 am - 8.30 pm IST on Sunday. The Sunday morning low was 6.2c, while in the day, mercury did not cross 7.6c...Max was 10c below normal

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Sunday's Rain forecasted in Vagaries come on Saturday....
From Pradeep (Vagaries Rainman)...LIVE Rainfall Update - Maharashtra getting good rains
===================
Its time for Live update of Maharashtra Rainfall till 10.00 pm on 28.03.2015 from Vagaries Rainman
in
Nagewadi - 46  Kumbhi - 34  Padsali - 34  Patherpunj - 23  Andhra - 22  Ranjani - 20  Dawadi - 19
Moleshwari - 19  Khamgaon - 18  Temghar - 16  Khumberi - 12  Poladapur - 8
Pratapgad - 7  Chinchwad - 7  Khandala - 6  Bhalwadi - 6  Waki - 6  Walvan - 6  Bhimashankar - 6  Bamnoli - 5  Vaibhavadi - 5  Tathwade - 5  Navaja - 5  Dhombhalkavadi - 5  Alandi - 5  Nasik - 5

Saturday Rains in Western Maharashtra...Matheran and Mahableshwar receive rains Saturday evening..
Pic of Rainfall over Matheran on Saturday evening sent by Abhijit...



and rain in Badlapur 



Waqas from Pakistan reports of Currently strong gale at Gujrat (Pakistan) with huge thunder lightning and moderate rains...
Raining in much of upper pak ...
These pics from Waqas' friend Hassan from Rawalpindi...



Answer to shridhar's Comment

Shridhar.: Initially, let us see that the ToI report on the hailstorms refers to last years events. they are referring to 2014, and say that might be the same for 2015.

But, analysing we see that this year, the ElNino event is not yet established. the parameters for the event have yet to form and may take another 30-45 days to establish an El Nino, if at all.
The map above provides NASA’s view of the conditions. It shows the ten-day average of sea surface height (centered on March 13, 2015) in the Pacific Ocean. It is based on data collected by the Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2satellite and analyzed by scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

An again, why have previous El Nino years not produced such violent hailstorms ?
I do not see any positive or definite link.....

A recent paper from National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, clarifies this to some extent. An excerpt....
Paper by
Tropical cyclones over north Indian Ocean during  El‐Niño  Modoki years
K.G. Sumesh and M.R. Ramesh Kumar
Physical Oceanography Division
National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa 403004


"The Air‐Sea interaction processes such as El‐Niño and El‐Niño modoki events have significant impacts on the
tropical cyclones over NIO. We have observed that the frequency of tropical cyclones are more (less) over
Arabian Sea (Bay of Bengal) during the El‐Niño Modoki years compared to the  El‐Niño years.  Our present
study suggests that concurrent occurring PIOD with ElNino Modoki events can significantly alter
cyclogenesis  parameters over the Arabian Sea as compared to a pure ElNino Modoki year .The convective
phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation also plays a significant role in the cyclogenesis over the north
Indian Ocean. Our present study suggests that the cyclogenesis formation over the north Indian Ocean is a
complex phenomena, as it influenced  by several coupled ocean atmospheric phenomena such as ElNino,
ElNino Modki, Indian Ocean Dipole and Madden Julian Oscillation."


Rains are back in Kashmir, ending 8.30 am on 29.03.2014

Western Disturbance (W.D) as a trough aloft in upper & mid tropospheric westerlies, runs roughly along Longitude 66.0°E and north of Latitude 23.0°N. Under the influence of WD, an induced low pressure area has formed over central parts of Pakistan & adjoining West Rajasthan with associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 0.9 km above mean sea level.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Kupwara 58
Gulmarg - 52
Baramullah - 51
Pahalgam - 47
Srinagar IAF - 45
Srinagar - 44
Rambagh - 44
Katra - 35
MAlangapura - 32
Zainapora - 27
Banihal - 25
Quazigund - 22
Anatnag - 21
Kulgam - 21
Kukernag - 21
Batote - 14
Jammu - 13
Govindapura - 11

Bordoichila pounds Assam for 2nd day, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 28.03.2015

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand & adjoining Bihar now seen as a trough from East Bihar to South Chattisgarh and extends up to 1.5 km above mean sea level.

in mm

Dhubri - 65
Kajalgaon - 39
Chamata - 38
Goalpara - 36
Guwahati AP - 30
Dudhnoi - 26
Baihata Chariali - 24
Nalbari - 19
Rangia - 19
Gossaigaon - 18 
Mushalpuar - 16
Jorhat - 16
Borkhetri - 16
Srijangram - 16
Raha - 14
Patharughat - 12
Dibrugarh AP - 11
Barepta - 11
Naharkatia
Kokrajhar - 9 
Golghat - 8
Laharighat - 7
Marghertia - 7
Dibrugarh - 7
Kakopather - 5
Udalguri - 5
Tamalpur - 5
Nazira - 5
Bakojan - 5
 

Thursday, March 26, 2015

Posted Thursday evening for the Weekend 27th - 29th March..

Mild wet spell again for North Interior Konkan on Sunday......Showers in Interiors of Konkan and Goa on Sunday. Interior regions in North Konkan like Pen, Roha and Kalyan can get showers on Sunday evening. 
Showers likely in Nasik, Aurangabad and Akola Districts on Sunday evening.

Saurashtra regions get some scattered showers on Sunday.
Surat will be around 39/40c this weekend. Cloudy Sunday.

WD announces arrival over Northern Sub Continent on Sunday 29th March...Thunderstorms  with hail would occur at some places over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh &
Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and North Rajasthan.

Mithi, Turbat and Chorre in Pakistan are likely to be around 42/43c next 2 days (Friday/Saturday). Karachi will be hot on frday at 40c, only to be lower on Saturday and Sunday by a couple of degrees.

Mumbai: Enough of the "loo" and "inland type heat"...Friday and Saturday: Partly cloudy with day temperatures around 34c. South to SW winds dominate in the evening. Warm nights.
Sunday. Partly cloudy getting cloudy in the day. Light drizzles in parts of city by evening. Warm and stuffy at night.
Eastern Outer Townships of Panvel and Badlapur too can experience light rains on Sunday evening. Warm in the weekend at 35/36c.

Pune: Friday and Saturday will be partly cloudy, mostly high clouds. Thundery developments possible on Friday. Days will be warm/hot at 38/39c.
Sunday will get cloudy by evening. Some showers in may parts of Pune by Sunady evening. Around 3-5 mms in regions where it  rains. Cooler Sunday at 33/34c.
Weekend holiday in Lonavala and Mahableshwar will be pleasant with showers on Sunday evening.

New Delhi: Getting very hot, with the mercury touching 36c this weekend. The NCR will have to wait till Sunday Night/Monday for some releif showers.Next week surely gets better for Delhi, as the days will hover around 32/33c.

Bangalore: Friday and Saturday will be warm/hot at 33/34c. Some thundery developments around vicinity possible on Sunday evening. Sunday may be hot at 35/36c.

Kolkata: After a hot Friday, ( 35c) chances of a thndershwer in some parts on Saturday evening. Sunday will see athundershower cooling down the city to 33c.


Rains are back in South Tamil Nadu, ending 8.30 am on 28.03.2015

An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over south Tamilnadu & adjoining Comorin area and extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level. A trough from this system extend upto south Madhya Maharashtra across Interior Karnataka.

in mm (min  5 mm)

Satankulam, Thoothukudi - 40
Kalakad, Tirunelveli - 30
Kodumudiyar, Tirunelveli - 29
Killiyoor, Kanyakumari - 21
Neyoor, Kanyakumari - 18
Eraniel, Kanyakumari - 13
Nanguneri, Tirunelveli - 13
Tiruchendur, Thoothukudi - 13
Colachel, Kanyakumari  - 11
Thuckalay, Kanykumari - 9
Sri Vaikundam, Thoothukudi - 8
Kurunthancode, Kanyakumari - 7
Radhapuram, Tirunelveli  - 6
Thoothukudi, Thoothukudi - 5
Ambasamudram, Tirunelveli  - 5
Upper Kodayar, Kanaykumari - 5
Thoothukudi Port, Thoothukudi - 5

Kalbaishakhi Season starts in West Bengal and Bordoichila Season starts in Assam, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 27.03.2015

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand & neighbourhood now lies over Jharkhand & adjoining Bihar and extending up to 0.9 km above mean sea level.

in mm

Assam

Golaghat CWC - 70
Golaghat - 60
Dhubri - 53
Miao(ARG) &
Barpeta - 40
Dhollabazar - 24
Kokrajhar - 23
Nalbari - 11
Borkhetri - 10
Baihata Chariali - 6
Kajalgaon - 5
Rangia - 5
Margherita - 5

West Bengal

Pedong ­ - 62
CoochBehar - 49
Toofanganj - 34
Alipurduar ­ 34
Chopra - 26
Jalpaiguri - 16
Malbazar - 11
Kalimpong Agro - 5

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Mumbai Santa Cruz records 40.8c on Wednesday, 25th March 2015. Not the hottest ever for March though, the Hottest March was on 28th in 1956, when the Suburbs saw 41.7c.

The highest ever for Santacruz was 42.2c in April 1952 (See Records for Colaba and other records here) .

Abhijit sends this:
Some max temp below from the region for today dated 25-03-2015 :
Thane IMD AWS 42.8°C so had 2nd consecutive day with 40+ temp !!
Palghar 42.5°C
Karjat 42.4°C so had 5th consecutive day with 40+ temp !!
Thane(अमेय स्वार measured) 41.9°C
Badlapur 41.8°C so had 2nd consecutive day with 40+ temp !!
Kanjurmarg(Mumbai) 41.5°C
BKC(Mumbai) 41.3°C
Santacruz IMD official (Mumbai) 40.8°C
Borivali(Mumbai) 40.0°C
Mahape(Navi Mumbai) 39.7°C
Vagaries(Mumbai) 38.0°C
Murud 37.9°C

Updates on Weather and Details wil be published on Thursday..Author was away.
With vagarian Atul Naik at IMD Panaji...


Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Day of the 40s in Gujarat...21st March 2015:
Maximum Temperature today 21st March 2015
Surendranagar 40.3 C 
Bhuj 40.2 C 
Mahuva 40.2 C
Vadodara & Gandhinagar 40.0 C.

Maharashtra:
Pune touched 37.1c as expected, and Mumbai was 35.3c, while Aurangabad recorded 36.4c.
Hottest in Maharashtra was Solapur recording a scorching 39.8c.

Bangalore was 34.4c, while Hyderabad was the forecasted 37.6c.

Chorr in Pakistan reached 40.2c on Saturday 21st, and Karachi was 34.5c.

Cuddapah touches 40c on 19th March...!

Special Information.. Some city temp anomalies of previous 30 days (Mid Feb - Mid Mar)....See Below
Outlook till Weekend ( For India & Pakistan)...with City forecasts  ...

Posted Wednesday 18th Night 11 pm IST:

Next few days we see dry weather prevailing in the Indian Sub Continent. Day temperatures start heating up, and will tend to range between 37-39c in the pink shaded regions.. 



The heating trend will start from Thursday 19th in Eastern Vidarbh and adjoining regions of Telengana. Initila heating also starts in Parts of North Gujarat and Saurashtra. 

The rains start in Balochistan and parts of Central Sindh (West) on 21st March. Instability is created on the region as lower level Easterlies cause a wind shear due to upper level 
Westerlies.(First mentioned in posting of 12th March on this blog).
On 23rd, we see M-4 moving into North Pakistan. 24th, and it gathers over North Pakistan and moves into Kashmir. And 25th/26th....gathers enough strength to precipitate good 
amounts in North and NW India...and Central Sindh and Rajasthan... more of that later.
M-5 on 29th ...!!

Forecast till Sunday 22nd March.

Mumbai: Almost clear, with some high clouds next few days. Days will be around 36/37c till Sunday. Evening North winds will result in pleasant minimum temperatures till Friday. 

Subsequently, we see the humidity and night temperatures rising marginally. 

Pune: Slight clouds. The days will be around 35c till Friday, and weekend we see days getting hotter to 37/38c.

Aurangabad: Almost clear skies and warm. Days around 35c, but getting to 36c by Sunday.

Delhi NCR: Almost clear, and warming  trend. Maximum days temperatures to cross 30c from Friday 20th. Next spell of rains around 24th/25th. 

Kolkata: Warm, getting hot by the weekend. Currently around 33c, but gets hotter by weekend. Would expect the day to touch 36 or 37c by Sunday.

Goa: Will be sunny and warm. This weekend, the day may touch 35/36c, which would be normally high for Goa.

Bangalore: Warm and clear. Days around 35c, maybe rising to 36c on Sunday.

Karachi: Getting steadily warm. Risng from 33c on Friday to reach 37c by Sunday.

Hyderabad (Sindh): Also getting warmer. Rising from 36c on Friday to reach 39c by sunday.

Gujrat (Pakistan): Partly cloudy skies. Days pleasant at 25c, but rising by the weekend. Likely to touch 30c by Sunday.

Some Cities...how the temps were last 1 month (from mid Feb - mid Mar)







Sunday, March 15, 2015

Pics of Udaipur and Nagpur Hailstorm on InterActive Page..


Tirunelveli continues to get rains, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 17.03.2015

The trough of low at mean sea level over Lakshadweep area & adjoining Kerala now lies over southeast Arabian sea and adjoining Lakshadweep area.

in mm (min 5 mm)

Lower Papanasam, Tirunelveli - 56
Vembakottai, Virudhunagar - 56
Papanasam , Tirunelveli - 46
Alankulam, Tirunelvei - 44
Valparai, Coimbatore - 34
Karupandhi, Tirunelveli - 32
Manomboly, Coimbatore - 29
Servalar, Tirunleveli - 27
Tiruchendur, Toothukudi - 23
Bodinaickanur, Theni - 22
Manimutharu, Tirunelveli - 22
Sholayar, Coimbatore - 21
Tirupuvanam, Sivaganga- 20
Sankarankoil, Tirunelveli - 20
Kuruvikulam, Tirunelveli - 20
Kalakadu, Tirunelveli - 18
Valparai Taluk Office, Coimbatore - 18
Keelapavoor, Tirunelveli - 18
Satankulam, Toothukudi - 17
Valliyoor, Tiunelveli - 15
Ramnadhi, Tirunelveli - 14
Munchirai, Kanyakumari - 14
Nanguneri, Tirunelveli - 13
Sivakasi, Virudhunagar - 12
Kadaladi, Ramanathapuram - 12
Sedapatti, Madurai - 12
Karaikudi, Sivaganga - 11
Valparai Pto, Coimbatore - 11
Porthimund, Nilgiris - 9
Thiruchuzhi, Virudhunagar - 9
Chinnakalar, Coimbatore - 8
Adavinayanar, Tiunelvei - 7
Peraiyur, Madurai - 7
Madurai AP, Madurai - 7
Aruppukottai, Virudhunagar - 7
Upper Kodayar, Kanyakumari - 7
Sankarankoil, Tirunelveli - 6
Kayathar, Thoothukudi - 6
Kovilankulam, Virudhunagar - 6
Cheranmahadevi, Tirunelveli - 6
Pudur, Thoothukudi - 6
Tirupathur, Sivaganga - 6
Kovilpatti, Toothukudi - 6
Gundar, Tirunelveli - 5
Sandyanallah, Coimbatore - 5
Thunnakkadavu, Coimbatore - 5
Ambasamudram, Tirunelveli - 5
Sattur, Virudhunagar - 5
Gudalur, Theni - 5
Parson Valley, Nilgiris - 5
Manur, Tirunelveli - 5

5th day of continuous rains in Desert Rajasthan, ending 8.30 am on 17.03.2015

The western  disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation lies as a trough in mid & upper tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 kms a.s.l. running roughly along Longitude 75°E to the north of Latitude 30°N.

in mm (min 5 mm)

Siliserh - 58
Jaisamand - 50
Bansur - 50
Pilani - 43
Thanagazi - 30
Malakhera - 26
Mangalsar - 22
Kotputli - 21
Reni - 13
Alwar - 10
Keshavrai Patan - 8
Behroad - 5
Rajgarh - 5
Ramgarh - 5
Baswa - 5
Redia - 5
Bahadurpur - 5
Bawanwas - 5

2nd day of heavy rains lash North India, ending 8.30 am on 17.03.2015

The western  disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation lies as a trough in mid & upper tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 kms a.s.l. running roughly along Longitude 75°E to the north of Latitude 30°N.

Kashmir

in mm (min 10 mm)

Kathua - 90
Shalimar - 68
Banihal - 66
Katara - 56
Bhaderwah - 54
Quazigund - 52
Kawa - 52
Udhampur - 50
Batote - 49
Govindapura - 48
Kukernag - 47
Jammu - 46
Pahalgam - 36
Chatha - 30
Srinagar - 24
Gulmarg - 21
Baramullah - 20
Khudwani - 20
Kupwara - 18
Zainapora - 14
Ramgah - 10
Malangapura - 10

Himachal Pradesh

in mm (min 15 mm)

Bhandal - 62
Dalhousie -  52
Kasauli - 46
Naina Devi - 40
Dharampur - 35
Nurpur - 34
Kheri - 30
Ghamroor - 29
Saloni - 27
Dharamshala - 25
Baldwara - 24
Kalatop - 24
Mehre - 22
Palampur - 21
Bilaspur - 20
Jubbarhatti - 20
Chail - 20
Kandaghat - 20
Sarahan - 20
Shimla - 19
Kothipura - 18
Solan - 18
Manali - 18
Hamirpur - 18
Chelsea - 16
Shimla CPRI - 16
Nauni - 16
Kangra - 15
Sundernagar - 15
Hipa - 15
Kasol- 15

Punjab

in mm (min 10 mm)

Madhopur - 73
Shahpur Kandi - 71
Fatehgarh Sahib - 40
Adampur - 17
Chandigarh - 16
Patiala - 15
Kishankot - 13
Aur Phambra Road - 12
Nawanshahar - 11
Salern - 10


2nd day of rains in Kerala, ending 8.30 am on 17.03.2015

The trough of low at mean sea level over Lakshadweep area & adjoining Kerala now lies over southeast Arabian sea and adjoining Lakshadweep area.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Vaikom - 70
Cherthala - 51
Mancompu - 48
Muvattupuzha - 30
Vellanikkara - 30
Kottayam - 29
Kozha - 29
Neyyattinkara - 28
Alappuzha - 27
Chengannur - 26
Angadippuram - 26
Vilangankunnu - 25
Kurudamannil - 23
Kanjirappally - 21
Kochi CIAL - 20
Kumarakom - 19
Piravom - 14
Sengulam - 13
Poringal - 12
Pookot - 12
Munnar - 11
Ambalavayal - 11
Madupattey - 11
Vythri - 11
Chalakudy - 10
Enamackel - 10
Pamba - 10
Lower Sholayar - 10
Mananthavady - 10

Coonoor records 3rd 100 mm rainfall of the year, Tamil Nadu rainfall ending 8.30 am on 16.03.2015

The trough of low at mean sea level over Lakshadweep area & neighbourhood now lies over Lakshadweep area & adjoining Kerala.

Coonoor heavy rainfall this year. Its unsusal heavy rains after the drought in last summer.

16.03.2015 - Coonoor PTO - 123 mm
08.03.2015 - Coonoor PTO - 125 mm
06.03.2015 - Coonoor PTO - 113 mm 

in mm (min 10 mm)

Coonoor PTO, Nilgiris - 123
Kothagiri, Nilgiris - 106
Coonoor, Nilgiris - 104
Muthupet, Tiruvarur - 91
Usilampatti, Madurai - 90
Ketti, Nilgiri - 82
Kundha Bridge, Nilgiris - 56
Geddhai, Nilgiris - 53
Pehumpahallah, Coimbatore - 53
Sothupparai, Theni - 48
Periyakulam, Theni - 45
Buraliar, Nilgris - 45
Ooty, Nilgris - 44
Sedapatti, Madurai - 43
Emerland, Nilgiris - 41
Tirupuvanam, Sivaganga - 40
Ooty Boatanical Garden, Nilgiris - 39
Ambasamudram, Tirunelveli - 35
Madukkur, Thanjavur - 35
Kodaikanal, Dindigul - 32
Yercaud, Salem - 31
Kadamalaigundu, Theni - 30
Chittampatti, Madurai - 25
Porthimund, Nilgiris - 25
Naduvattam, Nilgiris - 24
Ramanathapuram, Ramanathapuram - 23
Cheranmahadevi, Tirunelveli - 23
Pechiparai, Kanyakumari - 23
Melur, Madurai - 22
Upper Bhavani, Nilgiris, - 22
Papanasam Dam, Tirunelveli - 22
Pudukottai, Pudukkottai - 21
Adirampatnam, Thanjavur - 21
Pillur, Coimbatore - 21
Glenmorgan, Nilgiris - 21
Avalanche, Nilgiris - 19
Pattukottai, Thanjavur - 16
Manalar, Theni - 15
R.S.Mangalam, Ramanathapuram - 15
Kallupatti, Madurai - 14
Lower Papanasam Dam, Tirunelveli - 14
Servalar, Tirunelveli - 13
Sandyanallah, Coimbatore - 13
Kadamaparai, Coimbatore - 12
Sethubavachatram, Thanjavur - 12
Sattur, Virudhunagar - 11
Andipatti, Theni - 11
Vaigai Dam, Theni - 11
Sholayar Dam, Coimbatore - 10
Dindigul, Dindigul - 10
Manjalar Dam, Theni - 10
Valparai Pto, Coimbatore - 10
Arantangi, Pudukkottai - 10
Shencottah, Tirunelveli - 10
Thenkasi, Tirunelveli - 10
Colachel, Kanyakumari - 10
Ayikudi, Tirunelveli - 10
Peraiyur, Madurai - 10
Papanasam, Thanjavur - 10
Satankulam, Toothukudi - 10

North India gets battered, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 16.03.2015

The western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation lies over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir and extends upto mid tropospheric levels.

Kashmir

in mm (min 25 mm)

Banihal - 102
Govindapura - 93
Batote - 80
Bhaderwah - 69
Chatha - 56
Katara - 54
Khudwani - 51
Kawa - 45
Kukernag - 44
Zainapura - 37
Srinagar - 37
Malangapura - 39
Jammu - 39
Ramgah - 29
Kupwara - 27
Pahalgam - 25
Gulmarg - 25
Baramullah - 25


Himachal Pradesh

in mm (min 15 mm)

Dalhousialha - 66
Kheri - 65
Bhandal - 49
Bangana - 45
Dharamshala - 43
Saloni - 38
Nurpur - 36
Shahpur - 35
Baijnath - 34
Naina Devi - 30
Gaggal - 29
Kangra - 29
N.Suriyan - 26
Palampur - 25
Una - 24
Guler - 21
Chhatarari - 21
Ghamroor - 19
Bharwara - 18
Nadaun -17
Kalatop - 17
Kothipura - 15

Punjab

in mm (min 10 mm)

Faridkot - 97
Shahpur Kandi  - 69
Moga - 44
Kapurthala - 35
Ferojpur - 32
Amritstar - 22
Taran Taran - 21
Jalandhar - 21
Nakodar - 19
Jagraon - 16
Ludhiana - 11
Kisankot - 10
Adampur - 10

Uttar Pradesh

in mm (min 10 mm)

Kanpur Tehsil - 120
Kanpur AP - 83
Sikandara - 57
Shahbad - 40
Maudaha - 46
Lucknow - 28
Saifai - 26
Manipuri - 25
Bidhuna - 24
Agra - 20
Charkar - 20
Chunar - 19
Banda - 18
Varnasi - 14
Salaon - 13
Pindra - 13
Hardoi - 11
Jhansi - 11
Baharaich - 11
Milkipur - 10
Allahabad - 10
Fursatganj - 10
Meerut - 10
Lalganj - 10
Muzzafarnagar - 10
Sultanpur - 10
Handai - 10
Bhiti - 10
Tundla - 10

Karnataka gets Moderate rainfall, ending 8.30 am on 16.03.2015

The trough of low at mean sea level over Lakshadweep area & neighbourhood now lies over Lakshadweep area & adjoining Kerala.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Catacatanahalli - 65
Shivamogga - 58
Navile - 51
Belavadi - 49
Kanakatte - 49
Kattemalalavadi - 41
Kattige - 38
Kakotuparambu - 31
Halebeedu - 30
Sulebhavi - 24
Karehalli - 23
Amingad - 22
Kopa - 21
Nidige - 20
Tadakanahalli - 20
Halkurke - 19
K Siddapura - 18
Tanigebylu - 16
Tangadgi - 16
Madapura - 15
Murnad - 15
Biccodu - 15
Ganaualu - 15
Hosur - 14
Mylara - 14
Kokkada - 12
Miyaru - 12
Muthuru - 11
Shivani - 11
Hunagundi - 11
Shikaripura - 11
Kammaradi - 10
Satnuru - 10
Kappanahalli - 10
Hosakere - 10
Kadur - 10
Kiranagi - 10
Rippanpete - 10
Kodekal - 10

Kerala gets rain after a break, ending 8.30 am on 16.03.2015

The trough of low at mean sea level over Lakshadweep area & neighbourhood now lies over Lakshadweep area & adjoining Kerala.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Kozha - 76
Vellanikkara - 42
Kuttiyady - 38
Pattambi - 36
Irinjalakuda - 31
Perinthalmanna - 29
Idamalayar - 29
Thrissur - 28
Karipur AP - 27
Parambikulam - 27
Angadippuram - 26
Thekkadi - 24
Kozhikode - 24
Kottayam - 23
Vadakkancherry - 22
Kunnamkulam - 22
Thrithala - 22
Lower Sholayar - 20
Enamackel - 19
Vilangankunnu - 14
Chennganur - 13
Quilandy - 11
Palakkad - 10
Piravom - 10
Chimoni - 10
Kochi CIAL - 10
Thalaserry - 10

Massive Hailstorm hits Nagpur, Maharashtra Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 15.03.2015

An  upper  air  cyclonic  circulation  extending  upto  0.9  km  a.s.l.  lies  over Chhattisgarh and neighbourhood. The trough at mean sea level from Lakshadweep area to north Madhya Maharashtra has become less marked

in mm (min 15 mm)

Aurangabad Chikalthana AP - 48
Pimpalgaon - 40
Mandavgan - 35
Kannad - 32
Bharadi - 31
Babhaleshwar - 30
Hatkanangale - 28
Lasurgaon - 26
Semadoh - 26
Aashwi - 22
Nazare - 21
Chapadgaon - 21
Samsherpur - 21
Khanapur - 21
Gangapur - 20
Sillod - 20
Vaijappur - 20
Khuldabad - 20
Erandol - 20
Wadegavhan - 20
Khandala - 20
Nannaj - 19
Talegaon - 19
Loni - 19
Pimparane - 18
Dahigaon - 18
Balanagar - 18
Aanwa - 18
Ramnagar - 18
Tembhursonda - 18
Rajur - 17
Nagaon - 17
Yelavi - 16
Jamkhed - 16
Rohilagad - 16
Ankalkhop - 15
Walki - 15
Varangaon - 15
Dewalali - 15
Ghod - 15
Chikhalda - 15
Jalgaon - 15
Muktainagar - 15

Madhya Pradesh gets widespread rainfall ending 8.30 am on 15.03.2015

An  upper  air  cyclonic  circulation  extending  upto  0.9  km  a.s.l.  lies  over Chhattisgarh and neighbourhood. The trough at mean sea level from Lakshadweep area to north Madhya Maharashtra has become less marked.

in mm (min 15 mm)

Sabalgarh - 80
Sheopur -57
Morena - 40
Karahal - 37
Javra - 34
Ambha - 34
Gwalior - 34
Lateri - 30
Barasia - 29
Pachmarhi - 25
Jatara - 23
Tikamgarh - 22  
Bhopal - 21
Narwar - 21
Shivpuri - 21
Rajgad - 20
Khargone - 19
Guna - 18
Isagarh - 18
Nowgong - 17
Thikri - 15
Vidisha - 15
Indore - 15
Karera - 15
Raisen - 15
Sagar - 15
Shajapur - 15

Is it Rajasthan or Kashmir see for yourself, Rainfall / Hailstorm in Rajasthan ending 8.30 am on 15.03.2015...see pics below sent by Hunaid from Udaipur

The feeble induced low pressure area now lies as an induced low pressure area over west Rajasthan and neighbourhood with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 2.1 kms a.s.l.

in mm (min 35 mm)

Bijolia - 75
Indergarh - 75
Hindoli -74
Sawai Madhopur - 70
Tordisagar- 67
Badnor - 67
Banera - 66
Beawar - 66
Shakargarh - 64
Keshavrai Patan - 63
Motisagar - 58
Kota - 58
Khandar - 57
Mandalgarh - 56
Bisalpur - 55
Vansthli - 55
Kareda - 55
Mandal - 55
Jahajpur - 54
Deopura - 51
Paroli - 51
Aligarh - 50
Digod - 50
Hurda - 50
Juggar - 48
Phagi - 48
Ramgarh - 47
Bhilwara - 47
Shabad - 47
Deoli - 46
Mashi - 46
Mangliawas - 46
Sambhugarh - 45
Begun - 45
Sambhar - 43
Asind - 43
Dholpur - 42
Shahpura - 42
Bundi - 41
Chauthka Barwara - 41
Chandsen - 40
Pawta - 40
Bhinay - 39
Talera - 39
Sanganer - 38
Gayangarh - 38
Nasirabad - 38
Tatgarh - 38
Kanota - 37
Chaksu - 37
Jawaja - 37
Bawanwas - 36
Morasagar - 36
Pipalda - 36
Lalsot - 36
Todarisingh - 36
Jaipur - 36
Jaipur AP - 36
Dabla - 36
Nainwa - 36
Pisagan - 36
Rahuwas - 35
Phulera - 35
Karoikala - 35
Kotri - 35
Niwai - 35
Morel - 35
Sikrai - 35
Jaipur IDR - 35





And Pics from Nagpur Storm on Sunday...Amazing Size !!





Kalakkad gets 123 mm, Tamil Nadu rainfall ending 8.30 am on 15.03.2015

The trough of low at mean sea level over Comorin  area  and  adjoining  Sri  Lanka  now  lies  over  Lakshadweep  area  and  neighbourhood.  For 2nd day Kalakkad got batterd. Today it has got over 120 mm. Yesterday it got about 50 mm.

in mm (min 20 mm)

Kalakkad, Tirunelveli - 123
Lower Papanasam Dam, Tirunelveli - 100
Ayakudi Tirunelvei - 81
Kamudhi, Thoothukudi - 77
Servalar, Tirunelveli - 78
Papanasam Dam, Tirunelveli - 68
Kodumudiyar, Tirunelveli - 60
Valparai Taluk Office, Coimbatore - 46
Ramanathapuram, Ramanathapuram - 42
Kallupatti, Madurai - 42
Nanguneri, Tirunelveli - 42
Dindugul, Dindugul - 40
Pappakudi, Tirunelveli - 40
Alankulam, Tirunelvei - 39
Valliyoor, Tirunelveli - 35
Manimuthar Dam, Tirunelveli - 33
Vembakottai, Virudhunagar - 31
Sedapatti, Madurai - 30
Thiruvarankulam, Pudukottai - 28
Tiruchuzhi, Virudhunagar - 28
Peraiyur, Madurai -28
Mylaudy, Kanyakumari -26
Kannadiyan, Tirunelvei - 25
Kadaladi, Ramanathapuram - 25
Periakulam, Theni - 25
Illyangudi, Sivaganga - 25
Sivakasi, Virdhunagar  - 23
Kadayam, Tirunelveli - 23
Paramakudi, Ramanathapuram -23
Thirumangalam, Madurai - 23
Melur, Madurai - 22
Ottapidaram, Thoothukudi  - 22
Nagercoil, Kanyakumari - 22
Chellampatti, Madurai - 21
Kamudhi, Ramanathapuram - 20
Munchirai, Kanyakumari - 20
Sencottah, Tirunelveli - 20
Kovilpatti, Thoothukudi - 20
Aruppukottai, Virudhunagar -20
Mudukulathur, Ramanathapuram -20

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Mumbai had a violent thunder and Lightening experience early Saturday morning. Though rainfall was less, 1.7 mms in Scruz, 0.4 mms at Colaba and 5 mms at Vagaries, the "electric" intensity was high.
Sunday 15th and Monday 16th will turn out to be pleasant, and light cloudings in the sky. Days around 31c and North evening breeze cooling the nights at 23c. Days warming up on Tuesday.

As expected, Rainfall in Sindh and other regions of Pakistan from M-3 ...see Vagaries Pakistan....and now M-3 interacting with Easterlies and rains as forecasted (Below)

Thunder showers in Aurangabad on Friday Night...Parts of Pune receive showers and Karachi had some rains today (Friday). time for 10.30 pm Live Maharashtra Rainfall Update from Vagaries Rainman
in mm
Kopergaon - 16
Khamgaon - 13
Ghoddam - 11
Madh - 10
Shridi - 9
Khodad - 7
Chincodi Patil - 7
Auangabad - 6
Ahmednagar - 5
Pimpalgaon - 4
Rahuri - 3
Kolgaon - 3

Thursday 12th March 2015: 

Hottest Places in Asia: Bhumibol Dam (Thailand)...39.8c, Hinthanda (Myanmar) 39.6c...Nakhon Sawan (Thailand) and Meiktila (Myanmar).. 39.5c.
Hottest in India: Ratnagiri...39.0c, Mumbai SCruz...38.8c.

Our expected Western disturbance M-3 is on its way.

Pakistan:
Heavy initial precipitation in Central parts of Sindh and rains in rest of Sindh region.  Light Rains in Hyderabad and Lower Sindh cities. 
Karachi gets light to medium rains on Friday 13th ( 3-5 mms).Islamabad can get showers on Sunday, dropping the day temperatures to 16/17c on Sunday with around 10 mms. Sunday /Monday rains in Gujrat (Pakistan) with cooler Sunday at 18c. Around 15 mms expected on Sunday and Monday cumulative.

As the WD trough moves Eastwards, it will form an induced Low over Central Pakistan and adjoining India on 14th March.
This will attract most of the rains, and bring scattered rains in Northern most regions of Pakistan. Plains States of Northern India like Punjab, Rajasthan, Delhi and West UP will get heavy rains on Saturday 14th.

Mumbai: Wednesday night , South and Central Mumbai had light drizzles. Outer townships like Badlapur had medium showers, around 6 mms. After a very hot 38.8c on Thursday, with no more rains, Mumbai will see a relief with day dropping to 34c from Friday. 

New Delhi, as mentioned in previous posts, gets rains from Friday 13th night thru Monday. Sunday evening will see heavy thunder showers amounting to 15 mms on Sunday.

Bhopal: Showers start from Friday evening, with the heaviest on Saturday evening, the thunderstorm bringing almost 25 mms on Sunday evening/night.

Pune: Chances of some showers in parts of city on Friday, before the rains decease.

Akola Region: Friday and Saturday will be cloudy, with light showers continuing. Not very significant, maybe just around 3-5 mms. 

Aurangabad ; After a good 12 mms on Wednesday night, Aurangabad is expected to get another showers on Friday night also, with cloudy weather till Saturday. 
Farmers from Akola and Aurangabad regions are requested to keep from harvesting and cutting standing crop till Monday when full sunshine is expected.

Bangalore will get a thunderstorm on Monday afternoon/evening. Heavy in parts, will see around 20 mms.

Expecting Rains in Iduki District of Kerala on Sunday/Monday and Tuesday in the afternoons. Around 30 mms cumulative these 3 days.

Time Permitting, Request Forecast for any other city will be given..

Long Term Forecast;
A Low embedded in Upper trough will bring showers to Sindh on 21st....M-4 expected in North Sub Continent, starting from 24th.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

El Nino....Likely This Year ? El Niño forecast indicates brightening chances of El Niño forming after June  2015.

The central to western regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed by 0.2 °C to 0.3 °C over the past fortnight, while monthly sub-surface temperatures were more than 2 °C above average over a large area for February. This is largely the result of weakened trade winds and tropical surface currents in recent weeks.

Warmer-than-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and models indicate that further warming is likely in coming months. 

Weakened trade winds are forecast to continue, and this may induce further warming.
All international models  indicate that central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are likely to remain warmer than average, but within the neutral range, until at least May. 

 

indications point that SSTs will exceed El Niño thresholds. 


The most recent Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value is −0.5 to 8 March 2015, and the latest sea surface temperature anomaly in the central Pacific (NINO3.4 region) is +0.5 °C. 

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate La Niña, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate El Niño. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.

There is evidence that the MJO influences the ENSO cycle. It does not cause El Niño or La Niña, but can contribute to the speed of development and intensity of El Niño and La Niña episodes.
Overall, the MJO tends to be most active during ENSO neutral years, and is often absent during moderate-to-strong El Niño and La Niña events. The MJO activity during late 2007 and early 2008, which occurred during La Niña conditions, is unusual but not
unprecedented.




No strong MJO seen till mid April in our seas ( North Indian Ocean).
Excerpts from Aust.Bur of Met

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Maharashtra continues to get rains, ending 8.30 am on 12.03.2015

The trough at mean sea level from Lakshadweep area to north Konkan now extends from Lakshadweep area to Gujarat region across coa stal areas of Karnataka and Maharashtra.

in mm (min 25 mm)

Anturli - 59
Akole - 55
Patur - 46
Vihigaon - 41
Alegaon - 40
Pachgani - 39
Dhad - 38
Amalner - 37
Ambegaon - 37
Manikodh - 35
Jawala - 35
Dhaba - 35
Amalgaon - 35
Chowka - 35
Sasti - 34
Bharwas - 34
Khaknar - 32
Shirud - 32
Agar - 31
Jalgaonamod - 30
Channi - 30
Wazar - 30
Umara - 30
Kalegaon - 29
Medshi - 29
Sanglud - 29
Sawalikheda - 28
Wadner - 28
Wadshingi - 28
Babhulgaon - 28
Wawade - 28
Khadkwasla - 27
Dhanora - 27
Akolkhed - 27
Adgaon - 26
Kalmodi - 26
Wyala - 26
Akot - 26
Pimpalgaon - 25
Ansing - 25
Kapustalani - 25
Pankanhergaon - 25
Shelu - 25
Anjangaon - 25
Jafrabad - 25
Shiravali - 25
Madh - 25
Moleshwari - 25
Raver - 25

Vagaries Rainman 

Tuesday, March 10, 2015


Maharashtra is getting rains, while entire country is dry, ending 8.30 am on 11.03.2015

The trough of low at mean sea level  from  Lakshadweep  area  to  south  Madhya  Maharashtra  now  extends  from  Lakshadweep  area  to  north  Konkan  across  coastal
Karnataka.

in mm (min 30 mm)

Kundal - 73
Kasari - 60
Yelavi - 60
Pendgaon - 52
Morigiri - 51
Shalgaon - 48
Kolgoan - 46
Marali - 44
Saswad - 44
Borivade - 44
Pimpalgaon - 44
Khanapur - 42
Wangi - 42
Goregaon - 42
Tarali - 41
Supane - 41
Waduj - 41
Bembali - 40
Kirloskarwadi - 37
Palus - 37
Mhalasjawala - 36
Chandoh - 35
Umbraj - 34
Chichondi - 34
Madha - 34
Upshinghe - 33
Kale - 32
Pusesavali - 32
Channi - 32
Wathar - 30
Sonat - 30
Temghar  - 30
Yelgaon - 30
KoparadeHaveli - 30
Tasgaon - 30
Mungala - 30
Muthe - 30
Kumbharwalan - 30
Maulagi - 30
Sasawad - 30
Lokhandi - 30