Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Posted 31st Night:

Mumbai weather expected this week in city. 1st Feb - 4th February 

Windy evenings, Hazy warm days and just about comfortable nights...meaning no cold spell. Low humidity meaning less sweating. 

Days expected around 33°c...Real feel 34°c...warmish 

Nights around 18/19°c...just comfortable. 

No major changes.

Pune: Comfortable days this week with better days...around 29/30°c. Real feel 32°c.

Nights cold/cool at 10/11°c..cooler than last few days. Cooling down from Thursday. 

Dry weather either low humidity. 

Aurangabad: Dry weather with cool days and strong East winds...days at 28°c

Nights cold at 8/9°c.

Weather suitable for wheat. Now, as no immediate rain expected, watering may be necessary in 3/4 days.

औरंगाबाद: थंड दिवस आणि जोरदार पूर्व वाऱ्यांसह कोरडे हवामान...दिवस 28 अंश से

रात्री 8/9°C वर थंड.

गव्हासाठी अनुकूल हवामान. आता तात्काळ पाऊस अपेक्षित नसल्याने ३/४ दिवसात पाणी द्यावे लागेल.

Bharuch: Pleasant week,  with the Days at 30°c. Nights pleasant at 15°c. No major changes.  

BB 1 location..tracking South West towards Sri Lanka 


Monday, January 30, 2023

January System forms in the Bay. To Approach Sri Lankan Coast By February 1( Unusual )

Only six such January systems have formed in the Bay between 1980 and 2021, of which just one — a system that emerged on January 30, 1987 — managed to strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm.

An unusually rare January BB 1 appears to have formed in the Bay of Bengal, and it is expected to gain strength and track towards Sri Lanka & T.N. Coast. 

To intensify into a depression over southwest Bay by Tuesday (January 31), and move to Sri Lankan coast around Wednesday (February 1).

Rains 🌧 and thundershowers expected in T.N. ( Southeast) and squally winds on Wednesday....




Sunday, January 29, 2023

Weather Forecast from 29th January till 1st February - new WD bringing rain/snow to northern states and UTs


Mumbai - Westerly winds will strengthen on 29th after a warm morning/noon, partly cloudy weather for Mumbai MMR belt - some chance of drizzles, pleasant breeze from evening. Temperature will drop on 30th due to cold winds, max around 28°C, min on 31st can be around 16°C. 

However, change in wind pattern from 31st Jan, with easterly winds expected to raise daytime temperature above 30°C. Days getting warmer on 31st Jan around 30°C, but rising further on 1st Feb with max around 33-34°C, and min around 18-20°C, dry weather. 

Interior konkan/Thane district can be cooler than Mumbai during night/early morning. 


Pune - Warmer than Mumbai during daytime on 29th and 30th (max around 31-32°C), but max dropping from 31st to around 29-30°C and min around 10-11°C. Outskirts/rural areas in the district may see single digit minimum from 1st February. 



Nashik, Ahmednagar and Jalgaon - Nights getting cold from 31st January, min around 9-10°C. Rural areas in Nashik/Jalgaon could see min dropping to 8-9°C by 1st/2nd February. 


Next Western Disturbance J-4 has started affecting northern states. 

Southward dip on J-4 causing string moisture inflow from Arabian Sea, with Gujarat seeing thunderstorms as mentioned earlier. 

850 hPa winds


700 hPa winds show a strong trough



Moderate to heavy rain/snow expected over Himalayas - Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, western parts of Nepal during 29th and 30th January.

Plains of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Rajasthan, western Uttar Pradesh to see rain/thunderstorms with chance of hail on 29th and 30th. 





Friday, January 27, 2023

Posted 27th January 

The first  Low (BB 1) from the Bay..forming today.


The simultaneous W.D. will prevail in the Northern Regions.

So, BB 1 heading towards Sri Lanka.

J 4 W.D rainfall and extensive snowfall from W.D. on 29th & 30th in Northern Hills, Punjab, Haryana,  Delhi, North Rajasthan and M.P.

Some rain possible in Palanpur Region & Sabarkantha regions of Gujarat 

Cold prevails in North  and Central  India till 1st February. 

Thursday, January 26, 2023


 26th Day Temperatures..Mumbai cooler than Pune,Nasik and Same as Mahabaleshwar

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Posted 25th January...

We had mentioned a fresh review will be done on 25th...as Weather keeps us guessing...Some small change..in the weather estimate for Maharashtra for the next few days.

---------------------------------------------------------

Mumbai👇

  • 26th/ 27th/ 28th
  • days 30c...Nights 17/18c
  • 29th//30th.
  • Days 28c
  • Nights 14/15c...colder 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

  •  

Reduced windspeed and moisture from evening sea breeze may lead to hazy weather. 

Next few days, Pune days can be around 31°C and  night 13/14°C. 

Today 25th and tomorrow 26th January- Chance of some cloud development and light showers/thundershowers in patches over Ghats and Madhya Maharashtra region of Pune, Nashik, Ahmednagar and Nandurbar districts. 

Drop in temperature for from 28th/29th January in Mumbai and over most of interior Maharashtra from 30th January...cold nights for Pune/Nashik/Jalgaon after 30th.

27th Jan Night Estimate..see Maharashtra.

Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Aurangabad recorded 15.6 mms yesterday 

Rain around Aurangabad, Marathwada,  and Ahmednagar as mentioned (only) in Vagaries 

Tuesday evening/night 




Monday, January 23, 2023

On 23rd, Day in Mumbai was cooler than Pune, Nashik & almost same as Mahabaleshwar. 👇



 

Sunday, January 22, 2023

1.Weather outlook from Monday 23rd till Thursday 27th January - Winter rain/snow for Northern states and UTs!

Mumbai: "This weekend will see overall pleasant weather...max around 31C and min around 17C. Temperature may drop from Sunday onwards. "...This is where we ended our previous post of Friday...and continuing....

Cold weather again from Tuesday 24th, due to strong cool winds (as WD J-3 starts moving away from Northern India.) Now, initially, 24th - 26th January may see days around 28°C, and night may be around 15-16°C. Very windy...
Further fall and colder after 3 days, i.e 27th -29th weekend. Expect around 13/14c.


After 29th, the night temperatures can drop significantly in Mumbai ( 12/14c) and Pune (7/9c) and may bring another cold wave towards end of January. 

Pune: Minimum temperatures rising till Wednesday 25th morning, around 14-15C. Days will be warmer than Mumbai...around 30-31°C. 
From Friday 27th, colder weather into the weekend...nights around 7/9°c

Nashik: Similar to Pune, some rise in temperature till Tuesday 24th, may drop from 25th. Min temperature to remain around 10-12°C. Max around 30°C. 

Aurangabad: Maximum daytime initially for next 3 days around 31/32c, while minimum could be 13c.
Interior Maharashtra to be less cooler in the daytime than the coast.

Note:  Third active Western Disturbance (WD) of this month J-3 will start affecting the weather over western Himalayas and Northern plains from Monday 23rd. 

An induced cyclonic circulation is seen forming over Rajasthan.


These systems combined will result in moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal towards North India. 


Some showers and cloud bands may develop over Uttar Pradesh and NCR from 23rd night. 
Rain/thundershowers with chance of hail likely over parts of Uttar Pradesh, Delhi NCR, Haryana, Punjab, north Rajasthan and Himalayan foothills on 24th and 25th...rain activity decreasing on 26th. 

Chances seem good for light to medium rains in Delhi ( 5-10 mms) on 26th January. Cold day on 24/25th a < 20c.

Parts of Kashmir and Ladakh may start getting snow from 23rd. Moderate snowfall expected with heavy in some high elevations of Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during 24th-25th January. 

Chance of travel disruptions/landslides over Himalayas and Yatras during this period due to rain/snow. 

Gujarat will see temperatures decreasing from 25th morning onwards with cool winds as the WD starts moving away eastwards. 

Big drop in minimum temperatures is not likely in North as another WD (J-4) in quick succession to affect Northern India from around Friday 27th. 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Point (2)👇 will be reviewed again on 25th evening)

2. Western disturbance (J-4)..back to back on 27th -29th.
Major Snowfall in the Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Nepal Regions. 
Heavy rains in Northern Plains and light rainfall parts of Rajasthan, M.P. and Marathwada (Hail Possible).  



Thursday, January 19, 2023

Forecast for 19th-22nd January...

Pleasant weather for most of Maharashtra...temperatures likely to drop from Sunday going into next week. 

Mumbai: With last week's Lowest temperatures ( 13/14c) easing ,

This weekend will see overall pleasant weather...max around 31C and min around 17C. Temperature may drop from Sunday onwards. 

Pune: Warm daytime around 30-31C but nights will be cool around 11C. 

Aurangabad: Days around 30-31C, nights may warm up to 12-13C (from the present 10-11C). 

Forecast of Minimum temperatures👇


A weak Western Disturbance will affect western Himalayas today and tomorrow, bringing light rain/snow. 

From Tuesday 24th, a stronger Western Disturbance and an induced cyclonic circulation over northern plains is likely to bring the heaviest winter precipitation of the season for Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, west Uttar Pradesh, Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Nepal. 

There could be possibility of some rain in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh by middle of next week...More details by weekend.

Monday, January 16, 2023

 January 16th..

Delhi is  fog free from last 5 days, which is attributed to north-westerly winds which is not allowing the formation of fog after the passage of the western disturbance. 

Forecast based on ensemble model prediction of IITM and IMD-GFS 

On 17 January there is a 60% probability of moderate fog in Delhi, some places especially Delhi airport can record visibility in the range 200-300m (Figure 1). 

As the next western disturbance, is going to arrive on 19 January, wind speed over Delhi will decrease significantly (Figure 2). 

Another parameter which determines how conducive the atmosphere is for mixing is the ventilation index (Figure 3). Lower values of ventilation index indicate that the atmosphere is not favourable for pollutants to disperse thus more favourable for smog and fog. It can be seen from figure 3 that from 18 January onwards the ventilation index is forecasted to decrease and low ventilation index will persists in Delhi till 22 January. In addition, the planetary boundary layer’s wind speed is also forecasted to decrease from 18 January to 22 January. 

Based on these factors chance of moderate fog in Delhi (visibility in range 200-300m) on 18 January and dense to very dense fog from 19-22 January (visibility less than 50m).

Fig 1. Ensemble probability forecast of fog for IGI Delhi. Source: IITM



Figure 2. wind forecast at 850 hPa by the IMD-GFS model for 17 Jan, 19 Jan and 20 Jan

Figure 3. Forecast of ventilation index and planetary boundary layer mean wind speed for Delhi during the period 17-25 January 2023. Source: IMD-GFS

Written by: Dr. Vineet Kumar Singh

Research Scientist, Typhoon Research Center, Jeju National University, South Korea

------------------------------------------------------------

Bangalore cold...15th  January 

Bangalore recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 12.8 °c in the past 24 hours. The last time the city recorded the lowest minimum temperature was in January 2019....12.4°c

Coldest in Karnataka was Bagalkote at 8.6°c.

The lowest minimum temperature recorded in Bengaluru, according to IMD data was 7.8 degrees Celsius on January 13, 1884. It was followed by 11.2 degrees Celsius on January 9, 1992; 11.3 degrees Celsius on January 6, 1992; 11.4 degrees Celsius on January 5, 1977; 11.5 degrees Celsius on January 15, 1990; 11.6 degrees Celsius on January 19, 1993, and 11.7 degree Celsius on January 3, 1993. on January 2, 2019 it was recorded at 12.4 degrees Celsius.

Sunday, January 15, 2023

15th January...2023

Current Cold Spell in NW and North India  is not Unusual...Much is said about it this year to make it sound "some rare event".

The cold wave in North India a normal phenomenon and occurs multiple times every year during December and January. Cold wave conditions develop generally after the passage of a strong western disturbance, which is followed by icy cold north-westerly winds over the Indo-Gangetic plains including Delhi. 

Now, what is this "Western Disturbance " (WD)? 

In Meteorological terms  it is a "Cold Front"..Which means a mass of very cold air,being denser and "heavier", pushes a prevailing lesser cold air upwards. In short. a thick mass of cold air creeps in under a lighter mass of less colder air.


This rising warmer air condenses to clouds and bring precipitation. 

On the passing of a WD ,( from West to East), cold north-westerly winds blow into Northwest and Central India. Minimum temperatures decreases sharply.

[In the recent decades, there is a clear increasing trend in the minimum temperatures over north India, and the number of cold spells is decreasing. In fact 2021, was the warmest January for India after 1958. Similarly, December 2022, was the warmest December for the country in the recorded history (since 1901) with average temperature 1°C above normal. Thus, there is no evidence to show that cold waves are increasing in north India.]

This winter season we have seen low temperatures like 



Delhi Ridge has recorded 1.8°c.

Places in Kutch saw frost as Naliya saw 1.4°c. On 15th.

In Maharashtra,on 9th...GolegaonI(Jalna)& Khedgaon(Nashik): 3.6°

Ozar(Nashik):4.7°

Neri Digar(Jalgaon):4.8°

Deulgaon Mali(Buldhana):4.9°

Jalgaon & Dhule:5°

Nimba(Gondia): 5.4°

Ural(Akola) & Aurangabad: 5.7°

The current cold wave spell will be at its peak on 17 January. As per the IMD-GFS forecast, Delhi (Safdarjung) could see temperature falling to 2°C. 

Parts of Haryana, north Rajasthan such as Churu, Mount Abu, Hissar, Sirsa can see freezing temperatures in the range -1 to -2°C. 

Further, due to the prevailing windy conditions fog, dense fog is unlikely over Delhi NCR on 16-17 January. 

After 19 January, the minimum temperatures will once again start rising over entire Punjab, Haryana Delhi, NCR West UP region leading to abatement of cold wave conditions. 

Article by Vag.Rajesh &Vag. Dr.Vineet Singh.


15th Jan

Colaba 16.2 

Vagaries  15.4

Scruz 13.8

Pune 10.7

Badlapur (pvt) 8.8

Naliya 1.4,👇


Bharuch 12.4,








Saturday, January 14, 2023

 Confirming the cold weather temperatures 

Some minimum temperature readings recorded across Maharashtra on 14th January 2023 morning in °C below:

1. Mahabaleshwar(Nr Venna Lake): 4

2. Kelad (Pune): 6.9

3. Kalwan (Nashik): 7

4. Chandori (Nashik): 7.2

5. Umrale Bk (Nashik): 7.4

6. Satana (Nashik): 7.5

7. Junnar (Pune): 7.7

8. Kalambu (Nandurbar): 7.9

9. Shirambe (Satara) & Jalgaon: 8

10. Jakhane (Dhule): 8.2

11. Narayangaon (Junnar):8.3

12. Karanjphen (Kolhapur):8.4

13. Kenjal (Satara): 8.5

14. Savedi (Ahmednagar): 8.6

15. Khed Shivapur (Pune), Nashik & Aurangabad: 8.8

16. Agriculture CLG (Pune): 9.6

17. Karla Caves (Pune): 9.7

18. Anturli (Jalgaon): 9.8

19. Shivajinagar (Pune): 9.9

20. Lonavala (Pune): 10.1

21. Charholi Bk(Pune): 10.4

22. Walhe Purandar (Pune): 11

23. Cherawali (Raigad) & Mangaon: 11.5

24. Matheran (Raigad): 11.6

25. Girivan (Pune):12.4

26. Mahabaleshwar IMD (Satara): 12.5

27. Karjat AWS (Raigad): 13.6

28. Kondumare (Ratnagiri): 13.7

29. Vaibhavwadi (Sindhudurg):13.9

30. Sarand Jadhavwadi (Ratnagiri):14.6

31. Mira Road (Thane):15

32. Santacruz (Mumbai):15.2

33. Chiplun (Ratnagiri): 15.5


Data Credits: IMD & Skymet AWS

Compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

Please credit vagaries if used

Sunday 15 Jan,Mumbai Marathon : Vagaries Weather Guidance for runners:

Early Morning temp could be around 15-17 °C with light North to North- Easterly winds. Rising to 28°c  gradually. Direct ssun temperature  the real feel. around 22° - 29°, with Humidity~ 55%. 

Air Quality forecast is Moderate to Poor as per SAFAR guidance for the area.

Thursday, January 12, 2023

 12th January...

Cooling down for Maharashtra from tomorrow 13th January. Coolest period would be 13-16 January. Forecast till 16th January:

After a bout of snow and rain in the Himalayas and Northern States, the nippy cold winds have started to blow into Maharashtra and Central India.

Mumbai : Getting the Wintry feel..Days around 26-28°C with cool breezy weather, nights can be around 13°/14C from 14th January. 

Pune: Daytime slightly warm around 30°C, nights can be around 9-10°C.

Nashik and Jalgaon: Cool days with max around 26-28°C, min dropping till 7-8°C, with rural areas likely seeing 5-6°C. 

Ratnagiri: Getting cooler with max around 29-30°C, min 16-17°C. Rural areas may see 14-15°C min. 

Marathwada and Vidarbha: Aurangabad: Cooler nights with min around 8-10°C.

Aurangabad District expected cool weather will be extremely beneficial for the standing wheat crops. 

Enough soil moisture present will also help the crops at this stage.👇


मराठवाडा आणि विदर्भ: औरंगाबाद: 8-10 डिग्री सेल्सिअस किमान तापमानासह थंड रात्री. औरंगाबाद जिल्ह्याला थंड हवामान गहू पिकांसाठी अत्यंत फायदेशीर ठरेल अशी अपेक्षा आहे. या अवस्थेत जमिनीतील पुरेसा ओलावा देखील पिकांना मदत करेल.👆

North India plains to come under grip of severe cold wave after this WD moves away. 
Many places in Punjab, Haryana, North Rajasthan would see min temperatures close to 0°C with ground frost. 

Delhi NCR, West UP could see min around 1-2°C.

Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat to also see drop in temperature.


Tuesday, January 10, 2023

 Funny Logic that I read somewhere...La Nina cause of Mumbai Pollution..😄

Mumbai on Tuesday afternoon  👇



Another day of cold wave in Maharashtra! Some minimum temperatures below in °C recorded on 10th January 2023:


1. Bamnod(Jalgaon): 4.6

2. Kingaon Raja(Buldhana): 4.8

3. Jalgaon: 5.3

4. Zalta(Aurangabad): 5.5

5. Amthana(Aurangabad): 5.6

6. Dabhadi(Nashik): 5.7

7. Nagapur(Aurangabad): 5.8

8. Mundgaon (Akola): 5.9

9. Govardhan(Nashik): 6

10. Wadod Kh(Aurangabad): 6.2

11. Nimba(Gondia): 6.3

12. Nigudghar(Pune) & Pimpalner(Dhule):6.4

13. Viregaon(Jalna): 6.5

14. Bahal(Jalgaon): 6.6

15. Agriculture CLG (Pune):6.9

16. Deogaon (Nashik) & Mohol(Solapur):7

17. Loni Kalbhor(Pune):7.1

18. Pashan (Pune):7.3

19. Shivajinagar(Pune):7.4

20. Khed Shivapur(Pune):7.5

21. Nashik:7.6

22. Aurangabad:7.7


Data Credits: IMD & Skymet AWS

Compiled By: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

Monday, January 09, 2023

9th January...

We said yes, winter not over in Maharashtra...seen below are the expected low temperatures next few days this week.

Expect good weather this coming week now..

Mumbai: Very pleasant by Mumbai  standards ..nights around 15/16°c. ( Today was 21°c).

Pune: Colder nights around 9/10°c. ( Today was 8.6°c).

Aurangabad: Cold nights around 8/10°c. (Today was 5.7°c)

Gujarat may not expect severe cold with around normal temperatures.  

Cold Wave in North..



With rains/snow expected in the Hill States of H.P and Uttarakhand, & UT of Kashmir,  we can expect the severe cold in North to show some abatement. 

WD..light Rain over plains, moderate to heavy snow over upper reaches of Himalayas

Cold winds from Wednesday/Thursday

Cold Wave in Maharashtra! Some minimum temperatures below in °C recorded on 9th January 2023:


1. Golegaon(Jalna)& Khedgaon(Nashik): 3.6

2. Ozar(Nashik):4.7

3. Neri Digar(Jalgaon):4.8

4. Deulgaon Mali(Buldhana):4.9

5. Jalgaon & Dhule:5

6. Nimba(Gondia): 5.4

7. Ural(Akola) & Aurangabad:5.7

8. Mahora(Jalna):6

9. Hasanabad(Jalna): 6.4

10. Rohilagad(Jalna):6.5

11. Hinganghat(Wardha):6.8

12. Pusad(Yavatmal):7

13. Junnar(Pune):7.7

14. Mahalgaon(Nagpur):7.6

15. Nigudghar(Pune):7.9

16. Malin(Pune): 8.1

17. Agriculture CLG & NDA(Pune):8.3

18. Ahmednagar:8.5

19. Pune IMD: 8.6

20. Khed Shivapur(Pune) & Nashik IMD:8.7


Data Credits: IMD & Skymet AWS

Compiled By: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

Thursday, January 05, 2023

Weather Outlook for this weekend. 5th - 09th Jan:

Mumbai :Getting warmer overall....Day temperatures rising over Mumbai . City may see max around 33-35°C, and Panvel, Karjat, Navi Mumbai will be hot around 35-36°C till about Sunday 8th. January. 

The Day temperatures in Mumbai last 1 month shows the graph going down after the 15th..but will see a temporary rise again 😩


Nights just about pleasant around 19°C. 

Winters not over...Getting cooler again from Monday 9th..😀

Pune, Nashik, Aurangabad and Vidarbha to see slightly warmer than normal nights. Some clouds and patchy drizzles possible on 5th and 6th January. 

Temperatures may drop in interior Maharashtra, after Sunday 8th January  onwards.

 World Weather News Page Updated...A brief note on California Weather and the concept of "Atmospheric River" and "Bomb Cyclone"


4th January North India Fog...


Wednesday, January 04, 2023

⛄ 4th January...Ladakh today...⛄

Date: 2023-01-04
StationMax Temp (oC)Dep. from NormalMin Temp (oC)Dep. from NormalRainfall (mm)
CHUTAK-2.0 (03/01)---16.8--NIL
Diskit Nubra0.8 (03/01)---14.3--NIL
Gilgit10.5 (03/01)---6.5--NIL
Kargil-1.8 (03/01)---16.7--NIL
Leh-2.2 (03/01)---15.4
NIL
Skardu2.1 (03/01)---10.5--NIL

20th April  Understanding the Pacific - the process of formation of the upcoming La Nina has begun! We had put up an article in Weather Know...