Wednesday, December 19, 2007

The easterly wave has brought a good amounts of rains in many areas of Tamil Nadu, ranging from 3-12 cms. It being fairly active, is expected to bring rains to Tamil Nadu, south Karnatak on Wednessday, and the rain tapering off by Thursday night in these regions. But the system will move west, and Kerala should get the effect of this on Thursday. Jim (Accuweather) feels the system has to be watched as it moves into the Arabian Sea. This may well be the last wet spell of the season for south India.

But after crossing into the Arabian Sea, it will have pushed some moisture northwards. With the help of a weak "vortex", I think some small amounts ,( upto 10 mm) of rain can be expected along the Western Ghats areas of Maharashtra. So, Goa, Pune and Satara districts may get rain on Friday and Saturday. Mumbai may be cloudy on Friday/Saturday (meaning rise in temperatures).

In the north, a weak W.D. is expected to bring some snow in the hills. Cold wave prevails as of today in the region, with Srinagar at -5.4c, Amritsar at 0.6 c, and Delhi at 4.3, Jaipur at 3.8c yesterday. Mt. Abu was 0c two days back, Leh was at -14 c.

kapadias@gmail.com






Friday, December 14, 2007

Yesterday's W.D. was in effect as predicted.

Mid and lower hills across H.P.state were experiencing intermittent snowfall and light showers.
High-altitude areas and districts of Kinnaur, Chamba, Kullu and Lahaul-Spiti have witnessed snowfall for the third day. The minimum temperature at Petsio in Lahaul-Spiti plummeted to -17°C and -7.5°C at Dhundi in Kullu district.
The minimum temperature at Patsio and Dhundi was -9°C and -4°C, respectively. The night temperature at Keylong was -5.9°C, -4.5°C at Solang Nullah, -2°C at Bhang Manali, both in Kullu district.
Dhundi in Kullu district has recorded 94 cm snowfall followed by 62 cm at Solang Nullah, 13 cm at Bhnag Manali, 7 cm at Patseio, 6 cm at Keylong and 7.8 cm at Kalpa in Kinnaur district. Shimla recorded around 5 mm rain during in 24 hours.

The minimum temperature at Sundernagar, Bhuntar and Kalpa fell to 5.5°C, 2.8°C and -7.5°C, respectively. At Dharamsala, the maximum temperature on Wednesday was below 10°C. The Dhauldhar range was still experiencing snowfall.

On Thursday,the hill ranges with an altitude in excess of 7,500 ft in Shimla, Sirmaur, Kullu, Mandi, Kangra and Chamba have been witnessing intermittent snowfall . Narkanda and Khara Pathar received 20 cm fresh snow , taking the total during the current spell to 80 cm. The Hatu Peak was buried under 100 cm of snow. Paseio in Lahaul-Spiti recorded the lowest temperature of -15°C, while Keylong was slightly better on Thursday at -7.7°C.

Sunday, December 09, 2007

Cool cloudy weather over the northern and central regions of India and Pakistan today. The W.D. mentioned yesterday reached the regions of Pakistan and india today itself. Day temperatures fell today to 15-18c in the nothern plains and to 10c in the mid-hills of H.P. and the Kashmir region.This NCEP map shows a beautiful radar image of the W.D.

As quickly as it came, it should pull out to the east,and "allow the easterly wave to become effective in the southern peninsula region. As forecasted, the easterly wave could last and bring rains for 5/6 days.

kapadais@gmail.com

Saturday, December 08, 2007

A "series" of W.D.s ran through the northern parts of the sub continent. As anticipated, the temperatures fell to 3.5 c at Amritsar, 7.5 at Delhi, and fell generally over the northern and central regions of Pakistan and India. As predicted, the effect was felt in Gujarat and Maharshtra with Mumbai falling to 16c, and Rajkot to 13c (to name a few only,not the lowest).
Now, a fairly "strong " W.D. is to bring snow in the north of Pakistan, and Kashmir and H.P. in India. Rain is likely in Punjab and as far down as north Rajasthan. But as the system moves away rather quickly to the east, the precipitation will be there for a day only, maybe on Monday.
Thick fog and still lower temperatures will reappear from Tuesday in these regions, and the fog to last till the weekend.

But this augers well for the south. With the W.D. moving away an easterly wave is likekly to move into Tamil Nadu, south Karnatak and Kerala by Tuesday. Being fairly active, I think, the rain fall in these regions will last through till Saturday. And that too it will be quite widespread.



Saturday, December 01, 2007

The first "precipitating" W.D. reached the northern parts of the sub continent on the 30th. November. It was effective in breaking a 3 month dry spell in the hills and upper regions.

In Himachal Pradesh, Mashobra experienced the first snowfall of the season.
There are also reports of snowfall in higher reaches in Kullu and Chamba districts. The night temperature at Kalpa dipped to -0.7°C, Sundernagar recorded a minimum of 3.8°C, Bhuntar 3°C, Dharamsala 10.5°C, Una 6.5°C and Manali 3°C.
Breaking a long dry spell, the tourist town of Manali and its adjoining areas had the season’s first snowfall yesterday.
The Pir Panjal ranges, Brighu slopes, the Chanerkhani Pass, the Hampta Pass, Marhi meadows, Gulaba, Kothi, Dhundi and famous ski slopes of the Solang valley also had fresh snowfall. The Rohtang Pass experienced the season’s first heavy snowfall.

In Kashmir,it was after a couple of months that the valley witnessed rainfall, bringing down the day temperature. There were also reports of snowfall at Gulmarg, Pahalgam and Sonmarg and other areas.

Now, the second W.D. is to bring more snow to the hills, and rain to the plains of Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana by the 2nd.
The third W.D. of the series will have an effect almost on the run, that is by the 4th.

The cumulative weather effect will be substantial drop in day and night temperatures in north and central Pakistan, north, central and western India, and fog by the 4th. morning, as the skies clear in the north. By the 4th. Dec., towns in Punjab may experiance minimum temperatures of 3-5 c, and Rajasthan will be 6-8 c. Delhi should be at a minimum of 8-10 c and days at 22-24 c, from the 4th. Maharashtra and Gujarat will get moderate drops in temperatures at night, that this, temperatures will drop by about 3c from the 4th. Rajkot can drop to a minimum of 11-12c and the days will be cooler at around 27c for a few days from the 4th.

Down south, with the retreating of the W.D., an easterly wave may "attempt" to bring some rain to Tamil Nadu and south Kerala by the 7/8th. This can be followed up in the next blog.

kapadias@gmail.com


Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Below normal night temperatures have ruled over Maharshtra for the last 5/6 days. Lows of 7 c were recorded in Nashik and Pune going down to 8 c in the last 2 days. Mumbai, Santa Cruz, was down to 14 c yesterday. Now most of these were 5-7 c below normal, hence classifying into cold wave conditions.

I have not written for a few days, but, one can say I was waiting for the forecasted W.D. It is expected to reach the northern parts of Pakistan/India by the 28th. as estimated in my last blog. As a result, the night temperatures will show a tendency to rise, by about 2/3 c in the northern plains.

But, winter will be establishing a firm grip over the area. Another W.D. is to reach the mountains of Pakistan and India by the 1st., and hence, the hills region will get its first subsatantial rain/snow of the winter in the first week of Dec. This is conformed as another W.D. may follow up in the next 2 days in the first week of Dec .

The result of this will be a sharp fall in the temperatures over much of extereme northern regions of the sub continent, and a fall in the night temperatures, or cold wave conditions , over the plains and central parts of India. All this during the first week of December.

South India can expect very little rain in isolated regions. Maybe after the second W.D. moves away, an easterly wave, the result of the tropical storm in the China Sea, may bring some more rain around the 7/8 th, in Tamil Nadu and south Kerala.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Continuing from my blog of the 16th, the anticipated 1/2 days rain from the easterly wave has now receded, and not much expected for the next 8 days. As discussed before, the "La Nina" phenomena, has had its effect on the N.E. Monsoon, as we see a reduced amount of rain this season.

Also, the night temperatures have started to drop in the Northern regions of India and Pakistan, the central areas of India, and Maharashtra state. Srinager is now at -3 c, Amritsar at 5.8 c, Delhi records 10 c, and as predicted, Mumbai went down to 17 c, and in Pakistan Islamabad went down to 5 c, and Skardu in Kashmir to -7 c. The IMD minimium map shows a large area of India in the "below normal" shade.

The next 8 days (maybe till the end of the month), will not see any major precipitation either in northern areas of the sub continent , nor the south.Furhter west too, the middle east will be dry till the 27th. . A W.D. may be expected around the 28/29th. This may bring rain/snow to northern Pakistan, NorthIndian states of Kashmir, H.P. and Uttranchal. The northern states and Delhi may see a little fall in night and day temperatures arounfd the middle of this week. A fall in night temperatures could also be expected in the interiors of the southern states.

Two "tropical Depressions" have formed. One near the Phillipines, and the other east of Vietnam. Though not entirely out of season, the one near Vietnam will have to be observed for its further effects, if any , on the Bay side.

For your views: kapadias@gmail.com



Friday, November 16, 2007

Sidr crossed the Bangladesh coast, and hurriedly rushed inland into the N.E. States of India. Now, a depression, it seems to be fading away fast. This is due to the strong STR, (the northerlies mentioned in my prevoius blogs), pushing it away.

Also, this means, the seasonal weather over the sub continent is taking a firm grip over the region. No W.D. in sight, for the next week at least. This means , markedly colder weather in the northern areas of Pakistan and India, the central regions of the sub continent, and also cooler temperatures in the western states of India (including Mumbai, which will see a minimum of 18 c, next week).

An easterly wave approaching the Tamil Nadu coast, is likely to bring some substantial rainfall, especially to the coastal regions, on Monday. But it is not expected to last for more than a day, nor penetrate too much inland.

Thursday, November 15, 2007

SIDR : A powerfull Storm.

Sidr by now is a powerful Category 4 storm with 130 Kts winds, and is still a severe, highly dangerous storm. The JTWC have updated their earlier advisory giving the 1200 hrs, GMT, status for this Category 4 hurricane, and is moving towards down on the densely populated coasts of Western Bangladesh and Eastern shores of W.Bengal. Landfall is expected along the low-lying stretch of coast just east of Kolkata, in the next 24 hrs.. Sidr ( Arabic word for the the jujube tree, named by Oman) is only the second major (Category 3 or higher) tropical cyclone to affect the Bay of Bengal this decade.

Sidr has taken advantage of the high heat content Bay waters, and has intensified. As the storm continues northwards over the next 24 hours,it should be able to maintain its intensity. However, in the 12 hours prior to landfall, there will be a sharp increase in wind shear, and the Bay waters heat content will be a little lower as well, and the hope is that Sidr will be a Category 1 or 2 cyclone when it hits land.

But, even then,a Category 1 or 2 cyclone hitting the low-lying, densely populated coasts of W.Bengal/ Bangladesh could still be damaging. It is hoped that the local authorities have taken the due precautions and low lying areas evacuated.

The impact estimate and intensity is well shown at http://hurricane.methaz.org

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

SIDR has progressed fast, and has developed into a "severe cyclonic" storm, as per the latest IMD bulletin. The JTWC image shows the "eye" clearly. This indicates the cyclone has a core with hurricane winds, which means gusts of 100 kmph !

Several models have changed the forecasted direction of the storm. The general indication is now of movement towards the Orissa coast by Friday/Saturday. But, it may steer more northwards, and go towards W.Bengal, due to the STR. Its centre is now at 11.6N and 91.0 E.

Movements to be closely followed.

Thank you Ashokbhai for your very useful, and correct information to the readers. Readers have found it very informative.

kapadias@gmail.com


Monday, November 12, 2007

A short posting on the development of the strong system in the Bay. The IMD has positioned the "deep Depression" at 10.5N and 91.5 E at 05.30 hrs today. The JTWC has positioned it as "no name " cyclone 06B at the same position.

According to JTWC, the sub tropical ridge will steer the movement towards the North-West. COLA also forecasts a similar movement direction. So, I feel, looking at the various forecasts, and the actual facts, the STR , along with the fairly strong Northerly winds in the upper half of the Indian Sub continent, the system will grow into a named cyclone, and cross the Indian coast, along the Orissa/W.Bengal coast, maybe around Friday.

Please give your views on this development on this blog for all the readers to share and, or at
kapadais@gmail.com


Thursday, November 08, 2007

Much of Pakistan and India have reverted back to temperatures higher than what could be expected at this time of the year, after showing initial signs of cooling, specially over the northern areas of the sub-continent. Even the traditionally cooler regions of the hilly areas are reporting above normal temperatures. Labella in Pakistan have registerd high of 39.5c, and the overall day is very much warmer than it should be over much of India, as is evident from this departure map.
Even the night temperature departure map shows unusually warm colours over much of the region.
This could be due to the total absence of direct cool north breeze for the regions of northern and central India (IMD map). Maharashtra and Gujarat are warm and stuffy due to the incursion of moisture during the last week, which has even resulted in isolated rain in a few pockets.(Panjim had a heavy downpour yesterday with 67 mm of rain, and Mahableshwar 15 mm). Dry air from the north, should change the murky condtions of these 2 states, for the better, maybe by next week.
For the south, as was expected, the "break in monsoon" will end soon, with the predicted low springing up in the bay by tomorrow. The IMD predicts this low to become a depression, which can be transalted into heavy rains resuming for the southern states.

kapadias@gmail.com

Sunday, November 04, 2007


The N.E. Monsoon seems to have run out of steam, as anticipated. But the projected low, to boost it again, seems to have appeared "over the horizon'' as can be seen from the IMD streamline map. The low pressure area over the South East of the Bay is the projected "pulse" from the China Sea which has crossed over. The blow up of rain over the Tamil Nadu and A.P. coast later this week, due to the appraoching low is shown in this Cola forecast.

Meanwhile, no W.D. is in sight for the next 8/10 days, hence, the southern states should get some "undisturbed" rain from 9th. onwards till the 15th. of Nov.

But the current wind pattern is quite complex, as on today, and seen in the the IMD streamline. This has resulted in marginally above average day temperatures all over India, with a "tongue " of higher temperatures around the East-central and North-east region.

Thursday, November 01, 2007

The remnant pulse of the system which had crossed the east coast, has now spread its clouding as far north as Maharashtra. North Maharashtra had some rain today due to this, with Mumbai getting light rain with thunder, though this rain was anticipated in my blog around the 28th. /29th.
The vertical wind vortex (Low pulse) is now over South Maharashtra. It is expected that this will be over Goa tomorrow(Friday), before vanishing. Hence some more rain over Goa and South Konkan on Friday. Mumbai may get light rain for one more day on Friday too.

"No rain "period should continue in the southern states till 7th./8th., as no formations are seen till then. The remnant from the system which crossed Vietnam yesterday, should form the new low by the 7th./8th.

In Pakistan, the night temperatures have started falling from the last 2 days. Islamabad had 8 c and Skardu in Kashmir -4 c. Places in Sindh have recorded night temperatures between 11 c- 13c.
Hence, one can expect, in the current week, that temperatures in Punjab (India), Haryana and Delhi can go down to 12c. Srinagar should record its first below zero minimum this week.Simla can expect around 4-5c, and Manali 2-3c this week.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

The current system in the bay went upto a maximum capacity of a depression, and has now weakened and the clouding spread all over the peninsula upto Maharashtra(IMD satellite). The severity of the rain from the system is over, and the forecast for 30th. is in fact rain of sizable intensity only near the south A.P. coast, and the areas of south A.P. and north Interior Karnataka will get some rain, though scattered and not too heavy (map from "wetter").
A period of lesser rain is what is in store for the southern states for this week, at least till the 6th./7th. That is when GFS model has forecasted the next low for the bay.

Night temperatures in Central and Northern India are falling, but not at the pace required for this time of the year. The falling trend, which usually moves in westwards into N.India from Pakistan, has just begun to a small extent in Pakistan. In the hiily states, Kalpa in H.P. and Pahalgam have reached 1 c.
The nights can get cooler in N.India and central and N.Pakistan in this week, as no incursion of moisture is expected from the south, and the "high" can dominate the region.

kapadias@gmail.com

Sunday, October 28, 2007

The well marked low in the Arabian Sea could now develop into a depression, after a day of stagnation. The JTWC announces the chances of it forming into a cyclone in the the next 24 hrs. as "good".

Meanwhile, on the eastern side, carrying on from yesterday's blog, the low is now centered east/south-east of Chennai, as on night of 27th. The rains have commenced along the south Tamil Nadu coast. The system may not gather too much strenght now, and may not go beyond a dperession level, as the low lies just south of an upper level ridge axis, and the minimum sea level pressure isestimated to be near 1005 mb. But the interiors of Tamil Nadu and Karnatak a will get rains from 29th. onwards.

The "power house" of the North-East monsoon is actually over North China/Siberia. This region is normally dominated by a large anti cyclone, or high pressure area. Similarity of this with the summer monsoon is that the "power house" of the summer monsoon is the Mascerenes High off Madagascar.
From these "power houses, the summer monsoon winds blow, and change direction on crossing the equator, and the North-East monsoon is fed by the strong winds blowing from the Siberia High, across the Bay.
During the North-East Monsoon, occasional strong flows of cold air from the Siberian High is associated with the development of low pressure systems over the regions of Sarawak and East Malaysia. Remnants of these low pressure systems that affect Malasia, cross into the bay, and move westwards to Tamil Nadu.
Also, the sub tropical westerly jet stream is a characteristic feature of the NE Monsoon.

Hence, as mentioned, we can expect some more low's to follow till the middle of November from the Bay.



Friday, October 26, 2007

Ok, the bay low, has now crossed over into the Arabian sea, and has merged with the existing low there.
Many models still predict a cyclone there in the Arabian Sea, but the course and direction of the cyclone "to form" is being changed with almost every update. Very uncertain and unpredictable ! But, how strong the system becomes,( I still call it a system, without grading it), remains to be seen, and the direction, is anybody's guess.

The low mentioned by me for the bay has formed,and should cross the south Tamil Nadu coast by the 28th. And the rains will follow, drenching the southern tip most. But later, rainfall should disperse northwards into inland Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.
The upper jet stream westerlies over north India, are much too deep in the south,falling to near 22N, and the jet stream easterlies are very weak for this time of the year,and near the southern tip of India. Hence, any low,or depression, is unable to cross the east coast higher than the 10N line.

The high over the central parts of northern India will keep the area dry, and cool at nights, for the next week, at least.

kapadias@gmail.com




Wednesday, October 24, 2007

I would like to still cling to my estimated forecast of a low forming in the bay, and precipitating rainfall over South India, and dissipating over the peninsula.
It would have poured a fairly good amount of rain in the coastal areas( 28/29th.), and inland Tamil Nadu and south Kerala(29/30th.). Interior Karnatak can also get fair rains by 30th.
Several models like NOGAP and ECMWF predict the low to form into a depression, and cross the Tamil Nadu coast around the 28th.-29th. But I have my doubts of the same low reforming in the Arabian Sea. A low/depression in the bay is quite a normal occurance for this time, but the anti conditions of the western sector sea can prevent any major development there, as dry air is pushing from the mainland.
The coming system should cross the coast between 10N and 15N, due to the high pressure ridge in the northern parts.

But, like mentioned earliar, more systems could be expected till mid November atleast.

kapadias@gmail.com

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

My apologies for not updating this blog for the last 10 days. Was away, and unable to keep in touch with the latest on the sub continent weather, and unable to answer to reader's comments.

Finally, this year's unpredictable south-west monsoon has widhrawn ! Since its setting, the monsoon has been erratic, and often proved the weatherman wrong, and quite a few times totally misled the predictions.

Today, the IMD has declared the widhrawal of the south-west monsoon from Goa southwards across the entire country, in one day. And "Simultaneously Northeast Monsoon rains have commenced over Tamil Nadu and adjoining states of south peninsula." Quote IMD.

The W.D. moving across the north, was the main culprit for the delay, as it produced stray showers in the east and north-east, and the prevailing south-westerlies prevented the monsoon from totally moving out. But, with the system moving away eastwards, the high pressure anticyclone has quickly taken control, and organised the north-east flow in a more systamatic pattern (IMD streamline).

Moving to the north-east monsoon, it is clear that the China Sea, is still in an active phase, and is expected to pulsate a low in the south bay around 24th. October. According to weather models, and Jim Andrews of Accuweather, this low could form into a depression and cross the TamilNadu coast around the weekend. Some other forecast models predict the system to cross the east coast and re-emerge into the Arabian Sea. GFS from COLA shows the system crossing the Tamil Nadu coast around the 26th. and the rain area spreading and subsequently covering the entire southern Peninsula as the system weakens. And in fact, the rains are seen reaching as far north as Mumbai around 27th./28th.(check at http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/india.vv.html).

Personally, I tend to agree with this, as the Arabian Sea may not be conducive to revive a system, as it may not be stronger than a depression at the time of crossing the east coast.
But, surely there will be enough heavy rains along the Tamil Nadu coast, and in the interoirs of the southern states. Kerala, can get heavy rain around middle of next week, as a vortex may form in the south Arabian Sea, as the depression crosses the coast.

With the West Pacific regoin still active, I expect more depressions to come along the bay path, and keep the north-east monsoon vigourous in phases for at least another month till mid November. After that , the feeding from bay systems can cease, and the focus will shift to the strenght and frequencies of the W.D's in the north, as that too will have a direct impact on the frequencies of occurances of the easterly waves from the bay.
Due to the IRI predictions of a strong La Nina during the Oct/Nov/Dec period, the rain forecasted for the same period is above normal for the southern Peninsula, hence indicating a weaker flow of W.D's in the northern regions of India and Pakistan.

kapadias@gmail.com



Saturday, October 13, 2007

The IMD has announced that a "east -west shear zone " is establishing over the south peninsula by the weekend. This is the indication that the North -East monsoon is approaching. In fact, when a circulation gets embedded in a shear zone, it provides a good momentum to the monsoon to strenghten.

The ECMWF, has, infact predicted a formation of a circulation in the south-west bay, as indicated in my blog, yesterday. Another circulation is predicted in the south -east Arabian Sea. If they materialise, two circulations on either side of the shear zone can give a good momentum to the North-East monsoon.

IMD today announced the widhrawal line of the South West monsoon as passing through Aurangabad/Dahanu (20N), on the western side . The western side declaration seems to be slow, to me. The widhrawal is way below Maharashtra, I feel. The situation so demands, as 1. the north-east monsoon is gearing up. 2. the humidity levels are low right upto peninsula India(map) 3. the anticyclone has effectively pushed the north winds southwards and has wiped out the south westerlies. Dry winds in North and Central India,upto 15N, in this map 4. As far as Mumbai is concerned, there has been no rain since the last 13 days, and the day temperature was at 36c today !And the humidity was 54% !

Well, we chase and follow the North -East monsoon winds, which have already reached the eastern shores of the Bay. And we follow the temperatures dropping in North and Central India, and the"October heat" in Mumbai !

kapadias@gmail.com



Thursday, October 11, 2007

It is clear now that the seasonal high over Pakistan and north-west India is more marked, hence the southward push of the monsoon widhrawal has now reached the southern parts of the peninsula.
And the weather focus is now moving towards south India. International models observe that a upper air circulation has formed off the Tamil Nadu/Sri Lanka coast. The winds which are now north to south inland along the south-east coast, are expected to become north-easterly along the south-east coast and inland in the next 2 days.This is expected with the anti cyclone pushing down and changing the wind direction. With these changes predicted, in confirmation with my last blog, south Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Sri Lanka should get the commencing showers of the monsoon in the next 2 days.

Meanwhile up north, the night temperatures have dropped, as estimated. The IMD colour map shows the temperature distribution and the cooler weather covering north India. Pakistan too is witnessing cooler nights with Quetta at 0 c.

kapadias@gmail.com



Monday, October 08, 2007

The low over east-central India strayed towards the east, and as predicted, a new low has sprung up in the extreme north bay over the heated north bay waters. Today the low lies over Bangladesh,and is expected to move north-east. Further widhdrawal of the south-west monsoon got delayed beyond Maharashtra, again, due to the moisture incursion into the areas of Maharashtra and south peninsula.

For south India, and Tamil Nadu, the projected low from the typhoon activities in the China Sea/Pacific, is expected around mid week. The NCEP forecasts suggests a cyclonic circulation off the Tamil Nadu coast around the same time, and the ECMWF predicts a weak low in the same area. Hence, at the most, the low will remain weak, but, rainfall activity is likely to commence from mid week over south peninsula. The NCEP forecasts the "wet spell" to remain till 20th. Oct. But, the north-east monsoon does not set in till the south west monsoon widhraws completely from all the southern states, and then the winds are set to change course and direction.

However, during the north-east monsoon, a seasonal high stabilises over north China/Mongolia area, and is said to be the "power house" of the north-east winds blowing down the bay. This is slowly getting established. The related high of the south-west monsoon, which stations off the Madagscar coast, has almost gone.

The ECMWF gives a seasonal forecast for the tropics. In its Oct/Nov/Dec forecast, it predicts a slightly below normal rainfall for the north/central Tamil Nadu coastal region. The rest of the region will be around normal. The IRI forecast is for normal rain throughout south India.

kapadias@gmail.com


Saturday, October 06, 2007

The northern areas of Pakistan,and the north, north-west and central regions of India, are very much toeing the post monsoon trend. The minimum temperatures have started their seasonal fall, as seen in the blue area of the IMD map, covering the major part of the region from where the monsoon has widhrawn.

The strong prevailing seasonal anti cyclone in the northern half of the sub continent, will drive any rain from the existing weak low away towards the eastern half of India.
Sea surface temperatures are still comparatively above normal in the northern most bay,and that is the area where the system will move ,and possibly strengthen again.

Typhoon Krosa, now in the East China Sea, has gained to a super typhoon strenght, and is now Category-4 (destructive). This is more likely to trigger off the southern based low I mentioned in my last blog. Late next week, a low is predicted off the southern coast , and bring to the south, the commencement of the north-east monsoon. But, after a brief wet spell, the system(low) may move northwards, maybe north-east, if the existing prevailing northwesterlies, now upto central India, push southwards to dominate the wind flow.

kapadias@gmail.com


Thursday, October 04, 2007

The retreat of the monsoon continues southwards. The north dry air pushes its way south, and the widhrawal officially has taken place in north India, northwest India ,Gujarat, M.P. But, the rains have ceased now in Maharahtra and official widhrawal is expected soon. The rains are today restricted to the east coast and south as seen in this CPC map.

I expect, the night temperatures to fall in Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Utteranchal by 2-4 c in the next week. That means towns in Punjab may reach a low of around 14-15 c , and Delhi - Haryana may touch a low of 16 c in the coming week. This woold mean clear skies as no systems are approaching the region.

But down south, as mentioned, the remnants of Typhoon "Lekima" is expected to spring up a low around the 8th. of this month in the bay. Some models predict this to gain upto the level of a depression. This development is bound to bring good rains along the coast of A.P. and interior south peninsula next week. The exact time forecast of the rains will depend on the speed of formation, development and location of the low.
If the low in the bay develops into a depression off the south A.P./north TamilNadu coast, the south west monsoon will be simultaneously replaced by the north east monsoon winds. The ITCZ will shift down south , with the central India seasonal low vanishing.

kapadias@gmail.com


Sunday, September 30, 2007

Now its a hasty retreat ! The monsoon is pushing its way down south to widhraw at a fast pace. The dry air from the northern areas of Pakistan and northern most parts of India are vigourously pushing south as seen in this IMD streamline. The result:
1. Clear skies in Pakistan, North-west India, and gaining ground southwards into Gujarat,M.P. and eastwards towards U.P. Clear skies are prevelent today into Maharashtra.(IMD sat)

2. Resultant fall, overnite, in night temperatures in the north. Sudden falls in night temperatures recorded were 02c and 03c in Kalat and Skardu, and 15 c in Islamabad ( all Pakistan), and 05c in Srinagar, and 17c in Amritsar. Delhi has had a small drop to 21c. (see the southward thrust in IMD map)

3. Day temperatures may tend to rise ,for around the next 15 days, due to the sudden clearing of the skies.

Meanwhile, as mentioned, when the southwest monsoon widhrawal line reaches the states of Tamil Nadu, south Karnataka and Kerala, we have to keep a watch on the reversal of winds, to observe the arrival of the North-east monsoon.This may be heralded with a low, which may form around the 9/10 th. in the bay off the T.N. coast , as a result of remants of Tropical Storm "Lekima" near Vietnam.

The total rainfall of the season for Mumbai (Colaba) for the last three comparitve years.

2005: 2216 mm
2006: 2377 mm
2007: 2436 mm (97")

and Santa Cruz,
2005: 3321 mm
2006: 3030 mm
2007: 2569 mm.

kapadias@gmail.com





Friday, September 28, 2007

With the rain bearing systems withering away, the process of the monsoon widhrawal has started , after a 3 weeks lag, as the initial widhrawal from the extreme west of India should have started from the 1st. September.
However, the lag may be reduced, judging from the current outlook. The 1st. Oct normal widhrawal line covers the areas north of Maharashtra, and west M.P. and western half of U.P. However, this alignment of monsoon termination line could be reached by the 7/8th. Oct. this year.
With the two existing systems over east India and the west coast weakening, and becoming less marked, the widhrawal phase of the monsoon is set to resume, as mentioned earlier.

Even though an "upper Air Circulation" is predicted by several models in the bay around the 1st. Oct, it is not expected to gain too much, and may not offer much resistance to the forward thrust of the anti-cyclone dry air winds pushing from the west.( IMD map shows the westward thrust of dry air)

Hence, in the first week of October, Eastern India will be witnessing pockets of thundershowers in places, and many areas of the southern region too cannot miss out on the popping up of convective thunder showers, squeezed southwards. Progressive drying up of the north, northwest will reach the south Gujarat coast.

kapadias@gmail.com




Wednesday, September 26, 2007

The two concurrent weather systems mentioned in the last blog have now weakened. An update by the IMD states the Arabian Sea system has weakened into a "conventional"low, and the East India depression too has been degraded to a well marked low.
However, some international agencies give the Arabian Sea low an outside chance of intensification, as it is still anchored in the warm waters of the Arabian Sea.
On the other hand the eastern low is very much on the land, and will only weaken and fizzle out.

Then what is left for the monsoon to restart its widhrawal ?1. The 200 hpa westerly jet streams have reappeared and are dipping southwards again. They had briefly appeared about 10 days ago, but were overpowered by the monsoon systems. 2. The seasonal monsoon low over Pakistan has all but gone, with the pressure chart now reading 1010 mb. 3. An anticyclone clockwise winds are starting to blow over Pakistan/adjoining India.(map) 4. The humidity levels are falling in north west India, with dry anticyclone winds blowing. All these are signs of the monsoon widhrawal, and it is bound to start out from north west India within 2/3 days, and thence move slowly southwards. Dry northerly (clockwise) winds now establishing over Afghanistan/Pakistan, will play the key role in the southward push of the monsoon system.

Widhrawal heavy thunder showers will be the features over M.P, Maharashtra, south Gujarat and north Karnataka for the next one week.

Tamil Nadu and the southern tip of India, along with south Karnataka, will be watching the widhrawal of the south west monsoon. For concurring with the reversal of winds, the north east monsoon braces itself up right away.

kapadia@gmail.com








Sunday, September 23, 2007

The events are developing, as mentioned, but without the sequence of dates as forecasted.
The low has become a depression and crossed Orissa on Saturday, pouring very heavy rain( 27 cms. at Athagarh in Orissa, and several places with rain between 14-24 cms in Orissa).
It is now moving North-West. Today, Sunday evening it lies centered over Orissa and adjoining Chattisgarh.( Heavy rain has been recoreded in Kolkata at 13 cms.). THe depression is likely to move North-West before interacting with the approaching W.D.

The Arabian Sea low has formed today. It, on the contrary has "sort of" interacted with the prevailing W.D. today and has formed a corridor of scattered rain north-south along western India/Pakistan border earliar than estimated by me.(NCEP colour image).

The Arabian Sea low is forecasted by the JTWC and the IMD to intensify. JTWC estimates a cyclone formation chance.
This is to be watched closely.

The result: A delay by a few more days in the widhrawal of the monsoon. The current depression will have to "rain out", and then the formation of the anticyclone can form over Rajasthan.
The last date for the monsoon to start widhrawal from Rajasthan, as of now, is 28th. September 197o. Will this year be a new record for the start of widhrawal ?

Rain will naturally be spread out over the states of M.P, Chattisgarh, east U.P. because of the depression. And over north India, specially Uttaranchal getting a heavy dose, due to the "interaction". West coast can get rain along with the Gujarat coast, if the Arabian Sea low intensifies.

kapadias@gmail.com






Saturday, September 22, 2007

Carrying on from yesterday, the low in the bay has become a depression, and the low ,as mentioned, off the west coast, can be seen very well in this beautiful image from Dundee satellite.

Friday, September 21, 2007

The current week witnessed heavy rain along the northern peninsula belt and Gujarat. Alibag topped the list with an unusual 330 mms in a day, and many stations in Gujarat and northern Maharashtra with rainfall from 3- 10 cms.

The new low now off the east coast of India, is poised to become well marked into a depression by Saturday.
The depression is slated to travel inland across the Northern peninsula areas of A.P.,Maharashtra, M.P and towards Gujarat.

It is likely to merge with a low over North Konkan formed by the trough,seen well in the ECMRWF chart, by around Sunday/Monday, and the merged entity may move northwards towards Saurashtra.The system, if going by the estimate, may again interact with the "dipping" W.D. over northwest India and bordering Pakistan.
In effect, the monsoon trough will run along from Thar desert to the anticipated depression through central India.(current trough position,IMD)

In short, the effective result of this complicated meteorogical sytems interaction will be:

Heavy rains along the east coast of India from Friday, moving inland and good rains spreading through A.P. interior Mahrashtra and M.P. on Saturday(3-8 cms), with heavy rain in Mumbai and Konkan and the ghats on Sunday/Monday(4-9 cms). Rains will move towards Gujarat by Monday and will be fairly heavy in Saurashtra coast and inland(3-8 cms). By Tuesday/Wednessday(25th../26th.), rains will cover a corridor from Gujarat and South Sindh coast(pakistan), along Rajasthan/Pakistan border upto northern states of India, due to the interaction with the W.D.

This sequence of activity can be proved wrong, if the monsoon system, as unpredictable as ever, this year, decides to rearrange the jigsaw puzzle in some different pattern !It can happen, specially in the north, as the monsoon has "overstayed" its "booking dates there".

kapadias@gmail.com

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

The south west monsoon has dug in with good rains over Maharashtra, A.P. and the south east parts of India yesterday and today. Yes, it has put its withdrawal schedule on waiting. This is due to yesterdays low pressure in the bay and the trough along the west coast forming a weak low along the Maharashtra coast. Even though the bay low has weakened into an "Upper Air Circulation", another low is forecasted to form around the 21st.

With the formation of this new low in the bay, the existing monsoon low over Rajasthan will slip a bit southwards, and the two lows will be the western and eastern ends of the monsoon trough, along the central region of India.
As a result, it can be mentioned, that the monsoon trough will slip southwards.
Along the west coast, the off shore trough will lead the wind flow to get organised, and form a new low over the North Arabian Sea by this week end.
The NCEP and ECMWF have forecasted for" wet conditions" returning to the west coast and central India till next week.

This will result in Mumbai and west Maharashtra geting heavy rain on this week end.Mumbai can get upto 75mms on Sat or Sun.

Thus, a wet spell can be expected from now for a week all over Maharashtra, A.P. and the north coastal Tamil Nadu.

This over active phase of the bay is a result of a constant feed from the South China Sea, due to a steady line of typhoons. From the monsoon point, these systems have a cascading impact on the "pulse" and Low formations in the Bay of Bengal.

In the North, an approaching W.D. is forecasted to dip south, and in all probabilities inter-act with the remants of the Arabian Sea low.This should happen around the start of the week begining 24th. Rain from this event can cover the Saurashtra region,Gujarat, north west India, Delhi, and west M.P. from next week.

for your views: kapadias@gmail.com













Sunday, September 16, 2007

The monsoon this year does not seem to be in a hurry to make an exit. By today, the monsoon should have normally widhrawn from Rajasthan, parts of Punjab and Kutch.
The 200 hpa jet stream winds, which had initially started its normal southward shift, has moved to almost 40 N today ! That is quite a push northwards considering the time of the year ! And, with day temperatures again at 45c in Saudi Arabia and 44c at Basra(Iraq), the monsoon low, at 1000 mb, has weakly reappeared (temporarily) in Sindh(Pakistan).

Good rainfall, pushing westwards from the Andhra coast and Orissa, will occur in Central India, interior Maharashtra, A.P. north Karnatak from Monday,17th.. Heavy rain will then be a feature, due to the low forming over the west coast, along the coast of Maharashtra and Karnatak and south Gujarat starting Tuesday,18th.The Konkan coast will get heavy rain on Wed/Thurs. I have my doubts if the Saurahtra region will get rain due to this system, as it will move west into the sea.
I had mentioned in my previous blog that the ridge like formation would spare the north-west of India from the rains. But since the ridge formation has been halted for the time being, and a weak low has formed, there may be a scattering of rains, by mid-week, due to the sytem mentioned, in parts of east Rajasthan and west U.P. and Delhi.

As for Mumbai, yes, the monsoon is far from over, as per the comment to my blog yesterday. Mon/Tue will see showers with about 10-15 mm/day, but Wed/Thu should see more heavy rain with around 50-60 mms.

As the widhrawal of the monsoon , from the north is behind the schedule date, Mumbai on its part too will see a delay in the rains departing. The normal date for the rains to bid goodbye for Mumbai is 29th. Sept. But there have been several years when it has widhrawn in the 1st. week of October. As per my personal records and information, the last date of widhrawal of the monsoon I have recorded in the last 30 years was on Oct 17th. 1985. 1983 was Oct.14th. and 2006 was 13th. Oct (how soon we forget).

For comments: kapadias@gmail.com




Friday, September 14, 2007

The widhdrawal phase of the monsoon seems to have halted at the extreme west of Rajasthan. True to its nature as throughout the season, this monsoon has become erratic and unnatural in its behaviour. The low humidity level, is now restricted to the extreme corner of India, where I think the monsoon is over. Also, the main factor of widhrawal, the 200 hpa winds, are now surprisingly moving back northwards.



Having moved north, it may allow the current new low in the bay to creep inwards, and cause some rain. As the low is too close to the coast, chances of its gaining strength is dim. Another low is predicted in the bay around the 20th. which is expected to gain strength, and by the 23rd. be near cyclonic stage. Its expected movement is to move inland through central India.


An interesting development forecast is a low forming over south Maharashtra around the 19th. and coming upto the konkan coast on the 20th. With this, it is expected that konkan should get heavy rain by then.


Mumbai, as a result, will get heavy rains from the 18th/19th.(around 20 mms/day), culminating into heavy rains by the 20th.(around 50-60 mms). Thus the temporary dry spell should end (with thundershowers), in a day or two.

The 2 lows from the bay, will bring in a fresh surge of rainfall into the northern parts of the Indian Peninsula, the west coast and parts of southern states too. However, the northwest region of India is expected to remain dry and out of reach of the new wave of rain.The seasonal "ridge like" setting over Pakistan and west Rajasthan ,which has started will prevent the systems from taking the normal north-west route, but push into central India.

At this stage, the monsoon overall is 3.5% above the normal average on all India basis. This IMD map shows the distribution of rain.

kapadias@gmail.com











Sunday, September 09, 2007

Monsoon:

The seasonal monsoon low over Pakistan and adjoining India was less marked today. The chart shows the low pressure at 1002 and moving over east into India, and as a "less marked", or a disintegrated low over Pakistan. I personally feel, with the winds having reversed over Pakistan, and the low getting less marked over the international border, the monsoon has started its widhrawal, and has retreated from Sindh and West Rajasthan. The 200 hpa jet stream is also moving southwards to support the reversal. However, the monsoon trough holds on into North India, , seen in the chart as a low, and is stationary over north India, hence delaying the monsoon widhrawal over the rest of Rajasthan and north west India by another 4/5 days. Accordingly, the the forecast by NOAA/NCEP show a total widhrawal from north west India by the 16th.

For the southern states, the IMD has forecasted the formation of an UAC by the 10th. This will result in an increase in rainfall over the region for the next 2 days.

The rest of India will have sporadic scattered thundershowers, Even though there is no organised system is in place, south west winds keep the moisture level high, to encourage convective thunderclouds into easy formations.

Mumbai will be hot and almost dry during the week, with a thundershower possible in the evening on Thurs/fri.

kapadias@gmail.com



Friday, September 07, 2007

A Very Wet August Worldwide :



Moving away from the subcontinent weather, here is an interesting summary of the very wet and to an extent, destructive August we had globally this year. A datewise report from the corners of the world shows how the weather has been (and how much we were aware of):


For the month of August 2007:


1st
Tropical Storm Chantal was responsible for heavy rain and extensive flooding in the Avalon Peninsula, Newfoundland. The worst flooding occurred in the southern areas of the Peninsula where many houses were flooded.

3rd-5th
Severe thunderstorms struck Myanmar resulting in two deaths and many other injuries. The storms spawned a strong tornado that was responsible for two deaths and the destruction of 160 houses. Heavy rain triggered flash flooding which affected about 800 families and flooding many homes.

7th
During the first week of August, areas across China suffered from heavy rain which triggered flash floods that killed 78 people and left 18 others missing

7th
At least 14 people have been killed and 7000 forced to leave their homes by flash floods in central Nigeria. Flooding caused by days of heavy rain has also driven thousands of families from their homes in Lagos.
7th
In Vietnam, flooding triggered by Tropical Storm 06W killed at least 70 people in central Vietnam and affected thousands more. According to reports, more than 48,000 homes and 65,700 hectares of agricultural land were submerged under water.

9th
Three people were killed, 17 injured and 13 were reported missing in the Philippines yesterday after Tropical Storm Wutip caused floods and landslides. Tropical storm Pabuk was the first to hit the islands earlier in the week and was shortly followed by Wutip which churned across the country's Northern provinces early on Wednesday morning.
9th
The rain which fell on parts of Switzerland this week was the heaviest in a century. In the Jura, 150mm fell in 72 hours - as much as normally falls during the entire month of August. Zurich, received its largest daily rainfall amount in 100 years.

10th
Nearly 100 people have drowned and 335 injured in floods in Sudan over the last four weeks, caused when rivers burst their banks. Some 60 000 houses have been damaged or destroyed and 500,000 people affected. .
12th-20th
Typhoon Sepat developed as a depression in the western Pacific Ocean on the 12th, reaching typhoon intensity on the 14th.

13th-22nd
Hurricane Dean developed in the Atlantic Ocean, west-southwest of Cape Verde, as a tropical depression on the 13th. Dean moved towards the Caribbean sea and by the 16th it reached hurricane intensity. On the 17th, Dean entered the Caribbean Sea through the St. Lucia Channel as a Category 2 hurricane.

17th
According to a United Nations report, floods and landslides in the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea have killed at least 83 people and 60 are missing

14th-19th
Tropical Storm Erin developed as a depression in the Gulf of Mexico on the 14th, reaching tropical storm intensity on the 15th. On the 16th, Erin made landfall near Lamar, Texas with maximum sustained winds of 35kn. Erin downgraded to a depression but dropped moderate to heavy precipitation in its path. By the 19th, Later that same day, Erin dissipated over northeastern Oklahoma. About 250mm of rain fell across Houston and San Antonio, Texas, as well as in parts of central Oklahoma, as a result of Erin.In Wisconsin up to 300mm of rain fell in some parts triggering mudslides.

19th
Parts of Australia have been lashed by severe storms that have disrupted areas such as Sydney; parts of Sydney's north shore received more than 120mm of rain.

19th-27th
In the United States, thunderstorms brought heavy rain across parts of the Midwest prompting widespread flooding which forced hundreds of people to evacuate their homes

22nd
At least eight people have died after a heavy storm swept across parts of Poland; winds gusted at almost 120km/h through the Mazury lake district

23rd
Transport in Finland has been disrupted after a thunderstorm damaged the rail network; safety devices on the Helsinki-Turku line were damaged by the storm, leading to train services being delayed.

23rd-26th
More than 300mm of rain has been recorded in the north-eastern part of Queensland (Australia), forcing many residents to evacuate their homes.

25th
Approximately 50,000 people have been displaced by the recent flooding in Uganda. Six districts had been lashed by unusually high levels of rainfall for the last month before the flooding hit.

27th
During August 22-27, heavy rainfall affected China's southwest region prompting flooding and triggering landslides that killed 17 people in the Sichuan province.

28th
This year's wet summer in Canada has led to a surge in the number of poisonous plants growing in some parts of the country.

Really a wet month globally !

For your views; kapadias@gmail.com


Thursday, September 06, 2007

The normal date of the widhrawal of the monsoon from the extreme west of India and Sindh region of Pakistan is 1st.September. Clear skies and absence of clouds is seen from this area in the satellite image of this morning. The streamline map shows westerlies from Pakistan pushing into Rajasthan. But this is only the initial development, and cannot be "officially" put as the widhrawal, but only initial "moves", as the monsoon trough is still north at the foothills of the Himalayas. This trough should also move south, and create a reversal of the winds. The monsoon low is still prevailing in the Thar Desert as seen in this MSLP chart.

Hence, a weak W.D. is pushing the rains south towards the central peninsula.

Similarly there is no monsoon system developing in the bay, showing, most probably, no further signs of systamatic rains now. What can be expected in the next 3/4 days is sporadic "widhrawal" thundershowers along the west coast, North India, and central India, but heavy rain along the monsoon trough and the eastern end of the trough.

For Mumbai, a heavy shower or two, or a thunder shower in the evening, for the next 2/3 days. The rain may decrease after that during the day, with thundershowers in the evenings.

Jim(Accuweather) has given very interesting information about the deep freeze in the Antartic.
With his permission, I reproduce his write up:
" Plenty of nastiness of late, weatherwise, on the icebound white continent of Antarctica. At the Vostok station, the low temperature of -80.8 degrees C, or -113.4 degrees F, marked the nadir for the winter of 2007. It is the lowest temperature that I have seen observed anywhere (out of a small handful of Antarctic weather stations). Sunday, Amundsen-Scott station (the South Pole) observed -73.4 degrees C, or -100.1 degrees F--winter`s coldest by 0.1 degree C"

Very interesting and "chilling" facts, Jim.





Friday, August 31, 2007

The month of August saw Mumbai (colaba) recording 688 mms of rain, higher for the month than in 2005 and 2006.

This graph shows the amount of rain in Mumbai as on end August as almost equal to the season's total of about 2000 mms, and with still a month's rain left. Highest for the month in the recent past was in 1983, when almost 1180 mms fell in August. The seasonal total(June/July/Aug.) for Colaba is 2016 mms, against 1947 mms for the same period last year.

For Mumbai (Santa Cruz), August this year saw 605 mms , against 952 last year. Again, in the recent past, it was 1983, with 1225 mms in August for the suburbs. While the season's total for suburbs is 2132 mms (2494 last year).

However, the overall rain for India,for the period, is +2%,and the regional distribution is clear in this diagram.

Heavy rainfall region Mahableshwar recorded 1985 mms of rain this month, against 3038 mms for the same month last year ! Reminds me of a "weather joke"

"I can't believe it," said the tourist. "I've been here an entire weekand it's done nothing but rain. When do you have summer here?""Well, that's hard to say," replied the local."Last year, it was on a Wednesday."

The forecast indicates the formation of a low in the Bay around the 2nd. as a result of which increased rainfall can be expected along A.P. coast and Orissa. But due to lack of moisture support, the low may not travel beyond East M.P. or Central India.
The trough off the west coast will keep coastal Maharashtra,Karnataka and Goa wet with scattered heavy rain for the next 2/3 days.
For Mumbai, it is heavy passing showers for the next 3 days, with around 15 mms of rain per day.

kapadias@gmail.com




Tuesday, August 28, 2007

The wind and streamline pattern of the sub continent seems to be getting a bit organised and seasonal. Gujarat region, madhya Maharashtra and the Konkan coast had good and heavy rains Monday/Tuesday. Mumbai had the expected 34 mms of rain and Aurangabad and Osmanabad were the wet spots in interior Maharashtra with 90 mms each.

The good news for the coming 10 days is that a wet session is expected, first on the west coast and adjoining interiors, and then the east coast. As per the map , cross equatorial flows are picking up, and could increase rain bearing clouds along the west coast. According to forecast models, upper air circulations are expected to form along the Gujarat and Maharashtra coast, within a day or two, hence attracting the monsoon westerlies from the Arabian Sea. The monsoon trough has also started moving south, and is now running across Rajasthan,M.P. and towards the bay. This may leave the north/north west India drier for a few days.
Hence, for the west coast, a wet and active monsoon can be expected in the first week of September.
Subsequently, on the 2nd. a low is expected to form in the Bay, as predicted by the IMD, which will enhance rainfall activity along the east coast. This low can strenghten, and move inland towards the central regions of India.

The succesor to the Pacific typhoon "Sepat" is emerging, and is forecasted to hit Japan around the 6th. September. For long term forecasting, the resultant pulse from this may form a low in the bay in the second week of September, around 10-12th. This has to be studied and observed.

kapadias@gmail.com



Sunday, August 26, 2007

The outing for the "Mumbai Birdwatcher's Club" at Uran turned out to be favourable, weatherwise, with a great opportunity for the birders to spot and identify many types of grassland birds (a rare albino Prinia) and plenty of water species. Most of the 15 mm of rain had fallen on Saturday evening/night, and the day was cloudy.

Well, the rain has just eased a bit on Sunday, as at least 25-30 mms of rain is now expected on Monday and may extend into Tuesday. An upper air circulation formed over south Maharashtra should result in heavy rain in madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada and south Gujarat on Monday/ Tuesday. As the circulation dissolves in the Arabian Sea, the effect of the rain will diminish.The circulation over south Maharashtra and a distorted wind formation, away from the seasonal expectation, is seen in this map.
But with the Bay showing no signs, as yet, of brewing another low in the next few days, drier weather will return mid week onwards in most parts of central, southern and northern India. As is seen in this temperature map, the red area (hot) has now crept southwards.

Many parts of the Middle East are still very hot, with Basra (Iraq) being the hot spot at 48 c and Yenbo Airport (S.Arabia) at 47 c. Pakistan's highest was at Bhawalnagar which recorded 41 c. Keeping a track at the Gulf and Pakistan day temperatures is necessary so as to keep a track of the changing wind pattern and subsequent rising of sea level pressure over Arabia/Pakistan, indicating change of season. However, the temperatures are still too high for a change yet.
For your views: kapadias@gmail.com

Saturday, August 25, 2007





On the the day my blog was introduced to the "Mumbai Birdwatcher's club" and the "Birds of Bombay" forum, I was pleasantly surprised to have a visitor at my residence. The welcome guest, was spotted at my Breach Candy home, and is on the roof of the adjacent house.









I would like to share this with my friends .... pardon the quality of the picture as I had to rush and click on my cell phone before the peacock flew off!
...thanks a lot K.B. for the introduction of my blog.
For your views: kapadias@gmail.com




Thursday, August 23, 2007

Carrying on from the last blog, the situation is very much as anticipated. The low which crossed the sub continent is now fizzling out over Sindh (Pakistan). Karachi recieved 80 mms of rain yesterday, Hyderabad (Pakistan) 64mms, and several stations in Sindh between 15-40 mms.



With this low fading away, quite weather prevails over much of the sub continent region, till this weekend.

A weak low is forecasted by "COLA" to traverse across India, from east to west, through the states of Orissa, M.P. Maharashtra and Gujarat from Saturday onwards. It is expected to reach Gujarat by Monday.



Mumbai will remain hot and stuffy till Saturday, with the day temperature expected to go up to 33 c . Weekend could see some increased rain, more on Sunday and Monday, when around 25-35 mms of rain(with thunder) can be expected.



North India is expected to be dry, with no interacting systems. The hot area (red) shown in the map, may spread southwards to some more areas as a result.



Japan

Severe heat wave has hit Japan. Nagoya recorded 38 c for 2 days. A new national created with Kumagaya reaching 40.9 c. Even Mount Fujiyama reached a maximum of 18.2 c, the highest ever.














Tuesday, August 21, 2007

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The low from the bay weakened, without really gaining strenght, and now seems to dissipate over Gujarat. As a result, Gujarat will get rains today( Tuesday), for a day.

Mumbai and Maharashtra, will have a somewhat rainless week through Saturday with not much rain. In fact very little rain is expected all over maharashtra in the week , and Mumbai will get less than 5 mm of rain per day till Sunday, that is a shower or two daily.

Gujarat and Rajasthan may be dry in the week, and as a result will get hot.

The W.D. interacting with the monsoon trough in the western Himalayas produced some heavy rain in the hills of H.P. and in the region of Northern Pakistan. Rawalpindi getting 124 mms and Islamabed 49 mms. The W.D. is expected to move away to the east.

No system is expected till Sunday in the subcontinent, and quite weather over much of the region. Can get hot in the north and northwest region.

Thursday, August 16, 2007

As feared in the prevoius blog, the latest low did not gain much in intensity, and headed north north west and merged with the monsoon trough in the Himalayan foothills. That means a "break monsoon" condition for all of India, except the hills of western Himalayas and Bihar, east U.P.

A new low is forecsated by the IMD around the 18th. Seems ,that probably it might be a bit later than 18th. Till then warmer weather for the north and dry weather for the peninsular for another 4/5 days, at least. The highest temperature in the subcontinent was 42c at Nawabshah(Pakistan), and 38c in Hissar (India).

Mumbai will get few showers on Friday/Saturday, with rainfall of around 5-10 mms per day. But a little increase in rain, around 20 mms, is expected on Sunday, due to a weak off shore trough which might form for a day or two. Mumbai has had 1837 mms (73") of rain to date, that is 292 mms (11.5") more than normal at this date. And Santa Cruz has recorded 1930 mms (77") of rain, that is 210 mms (8.5") more than normal.

kapadias@gmail.com for your views.





Sunday, August 12, 2007

With the western end of the monsoon trough way up in the foothills of the Himalayas, the rain is restricted to the hilly regions of North India and Pakistan. Some stations did get some fairly heavy rain today in the region.

As mentioned in the last blog, the forecasted low has formed and deepened in the Bay. Its activity and strenght is to be watched in the next few days before any reasonable forecast be made. Some models suggest a north-west movement of the low, which could mean a "break monsoon" condition again. So, a better estimate can be made only on observations of the low in the bay, and seeing if the monsoon trough slides southwards in the next few days.

Mumbai should get the occasional shower for the next 2/3 days, around 10 mms of rain per day, without any large increase in rain next few days.

Hot weather in the Gulf abates normally September onwards.


Friday, August 10, 2007

The deep depression has moved away from India, and is now a low off the Sindh coast. Cloud imagery and pressure readings show the system to be weakening and chances of a cyclone forming off this system are poor. Rain amounts too have been lesser in Sindh. However, rain can be expected in north east Oman and parts of eastern Arabia on Saturday.

But much rain has been dumped by this system in coastal Gujarat and Kutch. Upto 750 mms in Veraval, 500mms in Porbunder in 2/3 days and 470 mms in Talala in a day.

Now, as the IMD forecasts the western end of the monsoon trough to shift north, heavy rain may be the order of the day for a couple of days from Saturday in the north western hills. Maybe some precautionary measures in case of heavy downpours.

The plains and central India should get the welcome respite from rain now.

But another low has started forming in the Bay. It is early to estimate its strenght and its development is be watched.

kapadias@gmail.com


Wednesday, August 08, 2007

True to the GFS forecast, the depression coming in from the land over Gujarat has merged with the upper air circulation over Gujarat.It has dumped huge amounts of rain over the last 2 days in Gujarat and Maharashtra. Some of the rain amounts speak for themselves;

August 8th.: Chief amount of rainfall in cm:
Cities : Talala -47, Maliya, Kodinar -31 each, Lalpur -29, Karjat -28, Veraval -24, Kadi -23, Matheran, Doraji -21 each, Amreli, Junagarh, Lodika, Vasai -20 each, Mangrol, Sutarpada, Jawahar -19 each, Mahabaleshwar, Jamnagar -18 each, Khalapur, Becharaji -17 each, Panvel, Gondal -15 each, Lathi, Lilia, Keshod, Kalol -14 each, Dhari, Vanthali, Wada, Murbad -13 each, Santacruz, Rajkot, Jetpur -12 each, Bagsra, Rajkotap, Palghar, Thane -11 each,

AUGUST 7TH.: in cms SAURASHTRA, KUTCH & DIU -Gujarat
Manavadar
36
Porbandar
29
Rajkot
21
Keshod
18
Sutrapada
18
Gondal
17
VIDARBHA -Maharashtra
Armoori
37
Brahmpuri
35
Arjunimorgaon
23
Umrer
20
Deori
18
These are figures which must have brought flood and caused damage to the affected regions.

Now, as mentioned in my last blog, this combined system, is on its way westwards. It is gaining in intensity, and can become a cyclone, or at least a deep depression, in the next 24 hrs. Heading westwards, Oman is in its path, as on now, and may get heavy rain Friday/Saturaday. But the strenght of the system should diminish, by the time it reaches north east Oman.

But with the sucking in of the energy and the swirling winds, Maharashtra and Mumbai will get a respite from rain, and sunny spells from Thursday for a few days.

Extreme Heat in Kuwait & Saudi:

In Kuwait, Abdaly, recorded 51.9 c , which is a new record for the highest temperature ever in Kuwait. And in Saudi, Al Ahsa reached its highest ever temperature of 50.8 c.



Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Sunday's depressions over the Bay intensified into a deep depression and crossed the Orissa coast on Monday.It moved westward and crossed through Chattisgarh,East M.P and now seems to be moving towards Gujarat. The south west flow of winds due to the depression, and the off shore trough remaining upto the Karnatak coast only, restricted the to the north of the Kerala coast and north of interior Karnataka. Same maybe the case with the fresh low.

Now, something interesting. An upper air cyclonic swirl over North Arabian Sea and coastal Gujarat, has already poured very heavy rain, from 100mms to 380 mms(Okha), over Gujarat. This sea based circulation is now set to merge with the land based low and move to sea as a single entity.(Maybe all the way to Oman). The combination will set off swirling heavy rain over the North Maharashtra coast and Gujarat region,including very heavy rain over coastal Gujarat till Friday.

Meanwhile, the 2 pacific storms have moved west north west, thus somewhat helping the bay branch of the monsoon . It will provide some strenght to the new low, set to form in the bay by 10th. of August.The IMD update predicts a similar low.The fresh low, will surely intensify, and cross the Orissa coast by 15/16 August.

kapadias@gmail.com


Sunday, August 05, 2007

BEWARE THE MARS HOAX: It's August, which means it's time for the annual Mars Hoax. An email is going around claiming that Mars will approach Earth on August 27th; the encounter will be so close, the email states, that Mars will rival the full Moon in size and brightness. (Imagine the tides!) Don't believe it. The Mars Hoax email first appeared in 2003. On August 27th of that year, Mars really did come historically close to Earth. But the email's claim that Mars would rival the Moon was grossly exaggerated. Every August since 2003, the email has staged a revival.
Here's something that is true: Mars is having a close encounter with the Pleiades star cluster, easily seen in the eastern sky before sunrise. Especially good mornings to look are August 6th and 7th when the crescent Moon joins the planet and the cluster to form a pretty celestial triangle.

Friday, August 03, 2007

The west end of the monsoon trough interacting with a weak W.D. produced heavy rains in New Delhi. It was a pocket of very heavy rainfall, and some interesting facts of New Delhi rain figures, as per information with me.

The rain recorded on the morning of 2nd. Aug. at Safdarjung for the past 24 hrs. was 167 mms. Now the total expected in August as per normal is 259 mms. That means almost 70% of the month's rain in 1 day. The heaviest ever in August fall in 24 hrs. at Safdarjung was 184 mms in 1961.
For Palam it was 138 mms in the 24 hrs, on 2nd. August. There the monthly normal for August is 284 mms. That again means around 55% of the month's rain, and the heaviest ever in a day in August at Palam was also 184 mms. in 1967.

Well, heavy falls were estimated to some extent at the west end of the monsoon axis (previous blog).

The "low" in the Bay seems to be forming now, and may concentrate sooner than expected. Good widespread rain has already commenced on the west coast, and the rain area will spread to central India by Friday. International weather forecasts suggest this "low" to move west, and cross through central India upto Gujarat. If so, very good rains can be expected all over the country in the next week. The forecasts also indicate the "low" crossing over into the Arabian Sea. For that, we will have to wait and watch.

Another Bay "low " is forecasted around the 9/10th.(maybe remnants of the Pacific typhoon) of August. We certainly have very interesting weather systems forecasted for the first half of August. With the rain fall departure for India coming down to just +2% for the end of July, a wet first half could do well to bring up the rain departure.

kapadias@gmail.com


Tuesday, July 31, 2007


So, finally there seems to be some light on the horizon ! Models and the IMD have predicted the formation of a low in the central bay around the 3rd of Aug. The low will surely produce rains on the central coast of east India.The penetration of the low inland will have to be followed and studied, after its formation. But if strong and development is good, rain will be good and useful in central India, through a corridor upto Gujarat.


It is also predicted, that the monsoon trough will shift south, end of this week.


In short, it means good rains to the eastern belt and east coast from 3rd. and from the 4th. in central India and northern India.. Heavy rains along the west coast from 4th. Now, as per the strenght of the system, the rain could last throughout the week beginning 4th. Aug.

Heat in the middle east is blistering with Darhan in Saudi at 50, and Tallil in Iraq at 49, along with Kuwait.

Saturday, July 28, 2007

There seems to be an" out of turn" return of "normal" monsoon winds, though slowly, over the central parts of India, west coast and the northern belt. Even though the monsoon trough still lies near the foothills of the Himalayas, an offshore trough off the west coast has brought sudden rains to Maharashtra and Gujarat. An "upper air circulation" formed over the Gujarat region, and over east Arabian sea. This has brought rains into Maharashtra, (Alibag 170 mms, Santa Cruz 110 mms and Aurangabad 70 mms and many places in Gujarat between 40-90 mms).

Though welcome, this development was unexpected and unusually fast. Even before it could be forecasted, rains were splashed over the region. Rarely do we see such rains with a "break" trough up north.That too, without any organised monsoon "low", or any system. But this activity may be short lived,as the trough in the north still hangs on, and the "upper air circulation can die down equally fast.

The monsoon trough persisting along the Himalayas, may produce rains on its western end,that is in North Pakistan,H.P,southern Kashmir and Garhwal region in the next 2 days.

Another offshore trough is expected off the north Gujarat/Sindh coast, and may produce rain in the coastal areas of Sindh.

Meanwhile, a severe heat wave has been reported in Kuwait. the maximum temperature in Kuwait was 49 c, and in Tallil (Iraq), it was 50 c. alongwith Dahran (S.Arabia) at 50 c.Several places in S.Arabia have seen between 48-50 c.

kapadias@gmail.com


Friday, July 27, 2007

Thanks to the "break monsoon" conditions, the latest rainfall figures provided by IMD show the overall surplus down to +4% only. As mentoined last week, the surplus was +11%, but several areas have now gone into the "deficit" areas as seen in this colour map from IMD.

Still, the positive side is that there are some heavy convection thundershowers due to excessive heating in pockets all over the plains of India. Heavy short thundershowers occur ,like 61mm at Aurangabed,due to local convections,and are not any organised system.

Mumbai can get a thundershower in some areas, due to local heating, on some days till the first week of Aug. Regular monsoon rain (from the southwest) are expected only after the 3rd.

Due to a W.D. (a bit unusual for a moderate one now), some good rain occured in N.Pakistan and hills of Kashmir and H.P. However, the "break " continues till 3rd. ,when a system is forecasted to form in the bay, that is a" low."

Next week will show the expected results of the monsoon revival, if it is to happen.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

No weather report can escape the deadly heat wave in Southern Europe.

This unbelievable heat has been described by Greece as its longest heat wave in over 100 years. Temperatures have hit record high in several countries of the region.Bulgaria experienced its hottest temperatures since records began yesterday on 22nd., with the thermometer shooting above 45C (113F) in some parts. Cities in Serbia, Romania,Hungary and Greece, experianced temperatures between 43-45 c. Central Asia areas are reeling under intense heat,with the temperature touching 45 c in Turkestan,and also 45 c in Tunisia (N.Africa).

Budapest, Hungary, had its highest ever temperature of 40.6 c, and in Hungary itself, a new national record for the highest temperature was reached when Kiskunhalas reached 41.9 c !

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Well, along with the rest of the region, I too enjoined the "break"in the Mahableshwar Monsoon. Was in Mahableshwar for 4 days,but the rainfall there was just around 10-15 mm each day I was there, and even sunny at times (rare in this seson).

There has been just a scattering of rain throughout the sub continent the last week. The monsoon trough, currently running along the foothills of the Himalayas,is causing this sharp decline of rain along the west coast of India and the main peninsula area. Even the northern belt of India is now devoid of any really heavy showers. The map shows weak westerlies in the Arabian Sea off the west coast, and southerlies on the east coast. Infact, the indications of a" high" are seen in the eastern bay. Only a line of wind discontinuity is seen in the M.P.,Maharashtra area,resulting in a few thunder showers. Nothing to really suggest a quick recovery of the monsoon in the central, northern or coastal areas. No immediate signs of a typhoon in the Pacific, which would normally help booster a "low" in the bay. I think we will have to look into the 1st. week of next month, for any meaningful recovery of the monsoon ,now subdued, in most of the country, except certain parts of the north east.

As a result, the overall India rainfall, which was +18% as mentioned in my last blog, now stands lower at +10%. After the initial burst of heavy rains,the result of 2 depressions from the bay, lasting upto the first week of July, there has been a decline in the overall rain figure.

We will have to look beyond 31st. July, maybe early August, for the first few signs of a possible revival of the monsoon.

kapadias@gmail.com


Monday, July 16, 2007

The newly formed low in the bay did not, as expected, develop much.It crossed the Orissa coast, and now is over Jharkhand. The weak system is expected to move into Bihar and East U.P.

Nepal, will experiance heavy rains in a day, as the system moves northwards towards it.

The result of this will be fairly heavy rains over Bihar and East U.P and Nepal, causing some flooding in Bihar . But, on the other front, as the system moves into the Himalayas, a very weak phase of the monsoon may prevail over rest of India, and Central and south Pakistan. A"break Monsoon " condition may hold on for 5-6 days from Tuesday, in the regions mentioned. Meanwhile, temperatures in West and North India, along with temperatures in central and south Pakistan, may rise. They may go upto 46 c in Sindh and 43 -44 c in Rajasthan, and upto 3-4 c above normal in Gujarat and Maharastra, and also 3-4 c above normal in Delhi.

The overall monsoon over India is now around +18%. But end of July should see this figure going down, as the rains will be scanty for about a week now.


Thursday, July 12, 2007

The lull in the rain mentioned in the last blog continues. The monsoon trough has shifted to the foothills of the Himalayas, causing less rain in the rest of India, as retreating of the rains to the foothills of the Himalayas is associated with a weak phase of the monsoon over the rest of India. The northern hill states will get enhanced rain during the next 2 days from today.

The anticipitated low over the bay seems to be forming. An "upper Air Circulation "has formed over central Bay,which will lead to the formation of a low.The brewing low, will trigger rain over Orissa and West Bengal, say from Saturday.

Due to the strong typhoon in the Pacific,"Man-Yi", most of the monsoon flows over the sub continent have been sucked away, and are converging across the south bay. As the bay low develops, it may not get the required flow in strength, and may not develop as much as its predecessors. In fact, international models are suggesting further weakening of the flows over the peninsula.This, may be limited to a few days, and may pick up later. But the strength of the new low will be limited.
Till then, normal monsoon weather over the sub continent, except the foothills, to continue with a weak phase for another 2 days.

Jim mentions of a major cold wave in Argentina and Chile. Snow after 80 years in the capital,B.A., and snow in many places in South America for the first time.Heavy rare snow also reported from South Africa, with Jo'Burg getting unusually heavy snow.
Cold and wet June/July for the U.K.
We talk about global warming ?



Monday, July 09, 2007

The depression after passing through the centre of India has now weakened, and is over Rajasthan now.

It has poured good amounts of rain over Gujarat, M.P. and Maharashtra. Interestingly, yesterday the day temperatures over Maharashtra and west M.P. fell to 6-10 c below the normal, as is seen from this map(IMD), which shows the departure from normal. Places like Aurangabad,was 8c below the normal at 23.6c.
The rain totals are going up, and Mahableshwar, has accumalated 2966 mm from 1 June to 9th. July.

The interaction of this system with a trough in the northern areas has resulted in heavy rains in the state of H.P. and southern Kashmir. This report from "The Tribune" of the 9th. aroused my interest, and thought it was a bit unusual, and unseasonal. The report quoted"Snowfall :
The higher mountain peaks in Manali and Kangra experienced snowfall today. The seven sister peak, Shikhar Beh and Mukher beh in Manali wore caps of snow, while the Dhauladhar ranges were also snow-clad."


Anyway, both the systems are moving away, and weakened, and a lull in the rains seems to be on the anvil. Awaited is a new system in the bay, most probably.

for your views: kapadias@gmail.com

Saturday, July 07, 2007

It has been 4 days since my last posting, the "new low" I mentioned in my last blog has since crossed the coast of Orissa, and dumped heavy rain in Jharkhand and Bengal.Today it is presently over Chattisgarh as a depression.

Now, this is expected to move west-northwestwards, and as a result it will drag the rain belt along with it into M.P.and east Maharashtra, initially. Later, from Sunday, heavy rain should commence in rest of Maharahstra and eastern parts of Gujarat, as a result of the depression's northwest movement. This is because the JTWC report states that the depression has a low level circulation centre, with monsoon rain clouds along the north-west and southern fringe of its circulation. The travel path of the weakening system will be towards south Rajasthan.

But, to the East of this system, almost no clouds are seen. There is a hint of another low forming in the bay around the 14th./15th.This, may happen as a result of the system just crossing the Vietnam coast (Doraji).

India, as a whole, has recieved good monsoon rains thus far,upto 4th.July. The areawise distribution has been one of the best in recent times. Thus far the area weighted rainfall for the country overall has been 237 mm,against an normal of 197 mm, meaning excess by 20%.

The ECMRWF and the U.K. met. dept. has forecast an above normal rainfall period for India in July/August/September.

The heat seems to be simmering back into sindh, with a few places, again going back to a high of 46 c. I think the south-eastern areas of sindh may just get some rain from the weakened system appraoching the region.

I also read about some extreme heat in the west U.S. Goldboros(Calif.) was at 52c and Las Vegas at 47c, with Phoenix at 44c.That is extreme by any standards !






Tuesday, July 03, 2007

With the passing of 04B into Pakistan, the system, on the heels of 03B, has left some very high rain amounts in the states of Maharashtra and Gujarat. In my last blog of the 30th,I had given some very high rain amounts in Maharashtra for the 28th. and 29th. The heavy rains in Gujarat and Maharshtra continued for another 2 days, as the system was stationary over Gujarat for 2 days.

Some heavy rain amounts in cms of 24 hrs.period due to intense rain in the two states.

July2nd.: Cities : Broach -49, Limdi 44, Dediapada -40, Babra -37, Padra-34, Hansot -33, Mahabaleshwar -32, Ranpur -30, Chuda -26, Pardi, Jhugodin -25 each, Valsad, Silvasa, -24 each, Bhira, Barwala, Karjan, Lathi, Botad -21 each, Nandod, Gandevi, Madhuban 20 each, Rajpipla, Ukai, Palitana -19 each, Bansda, Songad, Gondal -18 each, Matar - 17, Baroda, anand, Kamrej -16 each, Jagatpuri, Mangrol - 15 each, Peth, Trimbakeshwar, Surgana, Kheda -14 each, Vallabh Vidya Nagar -13.

Ghat area: Koyna(N) - 46, Koyna (P) - 35, Tamini -34. Shirgaon - 29, Dungerwadi - 28, Ambone - 25, Lonavala (O)- 22, Khopoli, Lonavala (T) -20 each, Walvan - 19, Dharavi - 15, Shirola -14, Bhivpuri 13, Khan - 11, Wangaon -9, Thakurwadi - 8, Dawdi -3.

Broach (South Gujarat) has recieved 49 cms of rain in 24 hrs on 2nd, which is the highest ever rainfall in a day for the town. The previous record for a day for Broach was 46 cms on 5th. August 1976. And the highest 1 day rain for June was 223 mm on 17th. June 1965.

Interesting are the figures for Mahableshwar, a hill station in the Ghats:

Rain this year from 1st. june to 16th. June : 69 mm
to 28th. June: 902 mm
to 30th. June: 1259 mm
to 03rd. July: 2218 mm.

There are no records involved here, as the record for the month of June till today at Mahableshwar stands at 2808 mm in 1882.

Maybe we can check for a record for a 30 day period , from 15th. June to 15th. July later this year.

The system is now over Pakistan and seems to be moving west, but with good rain expected in the coastal areas.

Another low has developed in the bay today. The next 24/48 hrs. will be crucial to observe its development and direction of movement.

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