Saturday, January 28, 2012

Who's afraid of Global Warming ?

WMO announced that last year was in the top ten hottest years in the Earth's history...or, lets put it in another way, last year was the coolest amongst the top ten hottest years in the Earth's history. 
Sounds totally different, doesn't it ?

Earth in a cooling period, says a prominent scientist
Despite the fact that the IPCC predicted that there was going to be a one degree rise of temperature by 2010, it actually got cooler..and its showing, every year. 
The cooling effect is observed and measured in spite of anomallies in checking data and closing down of important staions in the colder regions of the world. 
It all depends on how a thing is projected...and its the same story with GW...and ,according to the reply put up by my friend Rajan on vagaries, it has something to do with the ban on weather forecasting !

There are no isolated cases, but its persistent since the last 5-10 years at least !And this year is no exception...

What's this ?

Its 2 feet of snow in Seattle !

And an Artic Seal showed up in Seattle..Appears to be only the second ribbon seal on record to make it so far south.It was a ribbon seal, an Arctic species that spends most of its life swimming the frigid waters off Alaska and Russia.

This is the Killimanjaro Story: Some scientists and environmental activists claim that the mountain’s glaciers could disappear perhaps before the end of the decade, another victim of rising global temperatures.
Athumani Juma, a guide who’s been hiking Mount Kilimanjaro for the past seven years, laughed when asked about the likelihood that Kilimanjaro’s snowcap would soon disappear.
The glaciers are no longer are shrinking, but growing, Juma replied.“Before, we were seeing glaciers melting,” “But from 2010 to now, we have been seeing new glaciers.”

And what's this story from the Middle East ? Middle East ? yes !: Blizzard in northern Israel shuts down Hermon ski resort
Snow fell fast and thick all over the Golan Heights and Mt. Hermon on Sunday, forcing closure of the Mount Hermon ski resort.

Snow also reached the West Bank, where Hebron and the surrounding areas experienced snowfall, which, according to Palestinian reports, caused heavy traffic jams.

From Rajan's blog we see Mid Summer snow in New directly here.

And our own region, the Sub-continent. 
Lows of -33c in Darbuk and Shyok (Ladakh). 
Leh has plummeted to -22c and Gulmarg -17c this year. Good lows to indiacate a severe winter.These figuresare not uncommon, and they it continue year after year.Warming has not increased nor has it ceased to double freeze.
The southern regions of India showed records go tumbling. Belagaum, Mysore and Medikeri and Adilabad all touched all time lows.There is an unoficial record of a 0c in A.P. However, we know for sure of Adilabad at 3.7c, and Vagaries had put up a pic of Ooty touching 0c some time in December.

What about the "first time" snowfall in Punjab? and Kangra. And snow in the lower reaches of H.P? With Abu freezing at -2.2c ?
Does this mean that once the warmists finish massaging the numbers, this will still be one of the warmest years on record.

Dr Don Easterbrook is a professor emeritus of geology at Western Washington University. He holds a bachelor’s degree, master’s degree and PhD in geology, and has studied climate change for 50 years. He is nationally known as a climate-change skeptic

In an interview with Josh Holloway, Easterbrook makes it clear that he believes the Earth is now cooling.

"We’ve had 27 climate changes in the last 400 years: warm, cold, warm, cold. There have been four in this past century that have nothing to do with CO2, because CO2 wasn’t a factor hundreds of thousands of years ago. We know that those are not at all related to CO2. So why would we expect climate change today to be related to CO2?"

The bottom line is.. that global warming ended in 1998. We’ve had no global warming above the temperatures of 1998 since then — despite the fact that the U.N. group Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that there was going to be a one degree rise of temperature by 2010, it actually got cooler. 

Geneva-based World Meteorological Organization that said that 2011 ‘ranked tenth among the top ten warm years.’ “Why couldn’t they say it was the coolest of the top ten warm years?" asks Prof. Kelkar. 

Every weather or climate event can be construed as evidence of climate change and then blamed on mankind.Warmists claimed "Heavy Snow In Oregon is 'a sure sign of global warming" -- 'In 2010, David Suzuki told us that the lack of snow in Vancouver was a sure sign of global warming'
Rebuttal: 'There are absolutely no weather conditions which could occur that would not be attributed to global warming. The climate science community has achieved the pinnacle of confirmation bias'

Land v/s Sea Temperatures:
Latest EU satellite measurements puts sea levels rise at meager 2.7 inch rate by 2100 and NOAA can't find global warming in the oceans.Per the trends, sea levels will be 2.7 inches higher in 2100 with ocean temperatures being lower by -0.5°C.
Professor Muller claimed that the BEST team’s data showed no evidence of a global slowdown in temperature rises. Muller said, “In our data, which is only on the land we see no evidence of its having slowed down. Now the evidence that shows that it has been stopped is a combination of land and ocean data. The oceans do not heat as much as the land because it absorbs more of the heat and when the data are combined with the land data the as other groups have shown it does seem to be levelling off. We have not seen that in the land data.”

“The global temperature standstill of the past decade is obvious in the HadCrut3 data, which is a combination of land and sea surface data. BEST is only land data from nearly 40,000 weather stations.” 

But for the alarmists,all is not lost. I have something positive: "the supply of fossil fuels from the Middle East is going to get exhausted soon. That would obviously mean that the problem is solved, whether you want it or not [without fossil fuels, there would be little carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere by man]. 
But that is not something that climate change enthusiasts are willing to consider. Anyone who raises questions like this is termed a heretic.”

Tuesday, January 24, 2012


This Law in S.Africa, I understand is considered as wrong Forecasting can be dangerous and damaging to the economy.

But, then, who and in which field can anyone give an accurate forecast. Can any financial wizard or top notch financial institution with hundreds of employees studying the economy and Company workings give an accurate estimate of the stock market ? Impossible ! In fact, most of the stock market forecasts are getting blown away.I actually once told a friend who is in the stock market -"My weather forecasting for tomorrow is much more accurate than your forecast of tomorrow's stocks"

And remember. there are thousands of small time investors who are depending (wrongly) on their stock investments. They can be absolutely mis-led with wrong estimates and guidance.
Can a doctor never go wrong in his diagnosis or health estimate ? And that too can be very very crtical to one's life !

But, as a citizen of a free country, one must be free to express his views in any field whatsoever.

As far as weather is concerned, the met office, and the met man does get the occasional flak. With a sneer we hear "Havn;t we heard that before ? "

Fact is, meteorology can never achieve the kind of exact precision which is the hallmark of other sciences. The blame for this lies not with us weathermen, but the nature of the object that we study. A closed system involves a limited range of variables, each of which can be controlled or replicated in laboratory conditions. Much of ordinary physics is a good example of it.

An open system, on the other hand, deals with realities and variables that are large and complex, and under constant change. None of which can be recreated, in laboratories. The subject-matter of meteorology - Sub-continental weather systems - is an instance of the latter. Denied the benefit of real-time experiments, meteorology depends on modelling and computer simulation for its research.

Today'Weather below....

Sunday, January 22, 2012

A Cause of Concern for all Meteorologists:

Read these 2 Articles here and here. Please put up your views and comments too. Cast your opinion vote alongside on this page.

See International Page Update..Latest Snow Cover and Snow in the Sahara Desert – Video

Vagaries' Dubai Reader sends a pic ..Monday Forecast on Target !..See Inter Active Page.
Click Here for Better View
Vagaries' Sunday Weather Forecast for the Week 22nd to 29th January

1. J-3 will precipitate rain/snow over Northern states of Kashmir and H.P. and Northern regions of Pakistan on Sunday.
Light rains will also occur in coastal Sindh and upper Sindh on Sunday.
Light penetration of J-3 into Western regions of Nepal on Monday.

2.J-4, will bring light rains to coastal Sindh on Tuesday,24th. Rain/snow to Kashmir, H.P, moderate rains to Punjab (both) and Haryana and light rains in Delhi on Wednesday and Thursday, 25th and 26th.Southern regions below Delhi latitude in India will be dry.
J-4 moves into entire Nepal on 27th, but holding medium strength.Eastern India will be dry in the week.

3. Dubai gets rains with strong winds on Monday, 23rd.

4. A weakish Easterly wave, remanant of a low in the far east, will bring light rains to coastal T.N. on Thursday and Friday. Some rains move inland into T.N. on Friday, 27th.

Mumbai: Sunday will be windy with sharp West winds, bringing in possibility of some clouding. Clear from Monday, as winds turn NW.Cooler week days with temperatures at night hovering around 15/16c (S'Cruz). However, a slight fall to 13/14c expected on the latter part of the week, from Thursday/Friday.

Delhi: Lows will be maintained around 5/6c till Wednesday, thanks to J-3. Thursday and Friday brings J-4, and will be partly cloudy with light rains in parts of NCR. Hence, naturally a rise in night temperatures. Republic day could be free from fog, and comfortable. Night temperatures are slated to fall from Friday 27th.

Kolkata: Almost constant weather Sunday thru Thursday. Clear with the tem range between 26c and 13. Cloudy on Friday with light rain by Saturday, 28th.(J-4 remnant effect). Rise in night temperatures from Thursday, going to 19c on Saturday, 27th.

Karachi: Light rains ceasing after Sunday. Night temperatures, around 15c till mid week.
Sukkur, will get light rains on Sunday, and, again some light precipitation on Tuesday (J-4). Temperatures around 9/10c till Tuesday, could also fall to 6c from Wednesday.

Last week's Weekly forecast put up on Sunday last had all the six (6) points accurately predicted.almost 95% accurate.
Please keep posting your local weather for correct assesment . Check Current Weather Page on Vagaries for your cities' current temperature.

Friday, January 20, 2012

City Weekend Forecasts:

Mumbai: Westerly winds on Friday evening will bring in some clouds. Saturday/Sunday will be clear with return of NW winds. Day temperatures will be around 28c and night will be at 14c (S'Cruz) and 17/18c at Colaba.

Pune: Clear sky, but nights cool at around 10c for the weekend.

Delhi: J-3 will not have any precipitation effect on Delhi. But ,fog will reduce on Sunday morning. Clear sky will keep the night temperatures will be around 5/6c on the weekend.

Kolkata: North winds will change the week end weather, though Sunday evening will be calmer.Fog and clouds clearing by Saturday. Day temperatures will be around 24/25c. Nights, will fall from the current 18c to 14c levels.

Karachi: Saturday will see clouds with SW winds, and possibility of overnite light rains on Sunday. Night temperatures will again rise to 15/16c on the weekend.

Kathmandu: Weekend will be devoid of any rains. The temperature range will be 18c – 2c. Some clouding possible on Saturday.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Check inter active page for Latest morning Delhi pic

La-Nina Report:
La Niña conditions remain.The Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 regions of the Pacific show NO CHANGE in the SSt in the last 15 days.The regions are at -0.9c below normal.

Indications of a mild La-Nina still persist. La Niña remains established over the Pacific Ocean,
Though some indicators have weakened over the past fortnight. Atmospheric indicators of La Niña, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloudiness over the equatorial Pacific Ocean have shifted towards more neutral values,implying some weakening of the La Niña event.

However, most models suggesting an end of the event during the coming spring season.
SOI Parameter:Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.

As on 16th Jan, the latest SOI value was +12.8. Though down from 13.2,the last value, it is still above the La-Nina parameter.

MJO factor is weak currently ,right from the Western Pacific region upto the Bay equatorialregions. No signs of any strengthening of MJO next 15 days.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

The UAC in the Bay has fizzled out. A dominating "high" in the wake of the NEM withdrawal has brought cold to the Southern regions of India. Southern states of A.P, Karnataka, T.N. and to some extent Kerala, are experiancing a cold wave since Monday. yes, its a regular cold wave, with temperatures down by almost 9c from the normal.

Lowest record temperatures ever...
Medikeri went down to 4.8c,touching its lowest for Jan 4.8c reached in 1990 on 20th Jan. Belgaum saw 7c on Monday, its lowest ever, and Mysore dropped to 7.7c on Monday, its lowest ever for any month ! and Bangalore sees 12c after many years, Davengiri was at 7c today (Tuesday).

Chennai dips to 16.9c on Tuesday, very pleasant for the city. And Dharmapuri fell to 13c. Even Pondicherry saw 17c, 5c below normal! Ooty was at 4c on Tuesday.
Even in Kerala, Kochi (CIAL) dipped to 17c.(Lowest ever is 15.7c for Jan).

Srinagar, 16th Jan 2012:

Well, into Tuesday, and lets chase up vagaries' forecast and actual.

"J-2 will not survive beyond Tuesday"- certainly will not, in fact the system has fizzled out in the upper Himalayas.
"Central and Southern Pakistan will be cold again from Tuesday"-cold conditions have started, and Karachi has reached the predicted 9c, and Sukkur is 2c away from the 3c estimated, maybe tomorrow.

Cold will creep into Northern India plains from Tuesday night, in fact, expecting Delhi's 3c tonite itself! Delhi, after a foggy day, saw the high managing only 14c on Tuesday. Thick fog expected Wed morning.
Further fall in night temperatures tomorrow in Haryana, Punjab and North Rajasthan.
Other city night temperatures estimated in the weekly forecast should not become difficult to reach.

yesterday's Snowfall in Vaishno Devi..see video here.

Western Nepal had mild rain from J-2, and as expected, will not get any major benefit. (Neeraj was hoping for better precipitation). For Kathmandu, Fall in night temperatures estimated from Wednesday.

Mumbai was 15c at S'Cruz and 18c at Colaba on Tuesday. Expect partly cloudy conditions, and a fall to 13c next 2 days.
Pune has already slid down to the predicted 8c and Nagpur to 10c on Tuesday !

Kolkata nights have started rising as anticipitated, and reached 13c on Tuesday morning. Should be around 14/15c next few days, and cloudy from Friday.

J-3 is expected over Pakistan on Saturday,21st Jan. And will be covering the regions of upper Sindh, Punjab and Northern Pakistan with precipitation. Though not very strong ! Into Indian regions from Sunday,22nd.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Reader sends Snow Pic from Dehra Dun ..see Inter active Page

We ( Pradeep and myself) have got some figures for the year 2011, but they are haphhazard..meaning few are till september end. We are trying to get the Hulikal post monsoon ,which may be in excess of Cherrapunji for 2011..but till then..

1st four all India Rainfall Toppers for 2011:
C'punji 8675 mms (12 months),
Hulikal 8311 mms (9 months),
Amboli 7874 mms (12 months),
Agumbe 7841 (12 months).

The World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, has recently issued its provisional statement on the status of the global climate. It says that the year 2011 ranked tenth among the top ten warm years.

Putting it differently, one can say that the year 2011 was the coolest of the top ten warm years.

Why this kolaveri di? (Quoting Prof Kelkar !)

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Vagaries' Sunday Weather Forecast for the Week 15th to 22nd January.
click here for larger and better viewing.
Indicative low temperatures for the week are put up on the map with city location.

Vagaries' Sunday Weather Forecast for the Week 15th to 22nd January.

1.J-2, mentioned in the last weekly report, has started becoming effective in the Northern most regions of the Sub-Continent from Saturday, 14th as predicted.
This system is expected to precipitate snow/rain over North Pakistan, North Indian States of Kashmir and H.P. on Sunday/Monday and Tuesday. Rain showers will occur in upper Sindh in Punjab plains in Pakistan on Sunday/Monday.

Isolated hailstorms will occur in the plains of Northern India, i.e. Punjab,Haryana and Western U.P. on Monday.
Precipitation spreads to Western Nepal on Monday. Kathmandu will be cloudy. Drop in night temperature on Wednesday/Thursday.

2. Cloudy conditions with strong west winds over remaining Sindh (Pakistan) and Rajasthan on Sunday.

3. J-2 will not survive beyond Tuesday.
Cold conditions due to NW winds in Saurashtra and Kutch on Monday 16th.
Tuesday /Wednesday cold wave with drop in night temperature by 3-5c in Northern, Central and Western India. Cold N/NW winds.

Lows expected during the week; Srinagar: -5c, Amritsar: 0c, Delhi: 3c, Mumbai:12c, Pune 8c, Nagpur: 10c.

Central and Southern Pakistan will be cold again from Tuesday, with night temperatures dropping to 0c in interior Sindh and Karachi could go down to 9c on Teusday/Wednesday. Sukkur could drop to 3c.

4. Monday,16th will see light rains in the central U.P. areas.

5.Dry weather throughout the week for Bengal. At the end of the week, on Saturday,21st, a trough will bring light rains to Chattisgarh, W.Bengal.

6. During the week,South will be dry. UAC over the Bay Islands will fizzle out.

A fresh J-3 is slated for 22nd January. But it is out of the preview of this forecast, and will be discussed later as and when.

Mumbai: Sun/Mon/Tues will be clear and with temperatures in the normal range i.e. 31c - 16c for S'Cruz and 32c -18c for Colaba. Tues/Wed/Thu will be windy (NW winds) and see a drop in temperatures, both day and night. Low will slide down to 12c in these nights at S'Cruz and 15c at Colaba.

Pune: Similarly, Pune, after remaimng at 12c in the start of the week, will slide down to 8/9c mid week.

The first edition of the Vagaries' Sunday Weekly Forecast put up last Sunday (8th Jan) was 90% accurate.

Check "Current weather" tab on Vagaries to see the real time temperatures of your city.

Friday, January 13, 2012

As J-2 approaches the sub-continent, the night temperatures have shown a marginal rise. For India, the nights have become above normal starting from the extreme west.(Map).

In Pakistan, though the Northern regions are still showing cooler temperatures, the South and Central regions are slightly warmer. Karachi has risen to 13c and Sukkar to 10c.

J-2 will precipitate over Northern Pakistan, areas above the 30N line, from Saturday. Heavier in the Northern most regions, and tapering intensity Southwards.

On Saturday, the North Indian States of Kashmir and H.P. would get snow/rains, and cloudy in Delhi, Punjab and Haryana. Heavier intensity would occur on Sunday in Kashmir and H.P. Snowfall would be in the range of 40-60 cms in Gulmarg, Pahalgam and Lahaul regions of H.P. Srinagar can expect snow too, as the day's maximum are below freezing since the last 5 days.

But, J-2 , it seems has a shorter life span, of just about 2/3 days. I would expect Pakistan to be clear from Monday 16th, and the North Indian regions would go dry from Tuesday. A prevailing "high" is likely to dis-integrate the system, allowing just about a day's precipitation in Utteranchal. Nepal would get its share only in the western regions. Kathmandu would be just about cloudy on Monday/Tuesday.

Westerly gusts on Sunday could bring clouds to Karachi.
Strong W winds are likely to sweep the lower Sindh (Pakistan) on Sunday 14th. From Monday, the winds will diverge to NW, bringing down the night temperatures.
Kutch and Saurashtra region of India will be swept by strong NW winds on Sunday and Monday.
Strong Northerly winds from Monday will bring a fall in temperatures in Northern plains of India, including Delhi.


Friday 13th: Prevailing easterlies will keep the day temperature above 31c. Night will be around 16c (S'Cruz) and 18c at Colaba,

Saturday 14th: Very favourable winds for "Uttran" kite flying ! Though slightly dull in the morning, Winds changing to N/NW by afternoon, will bring the day temperature down to 29c, and night will be constant.

Sunday/Monday: Should see a fall in night temperatures to 13c at S'Cruz, possibly 12c on Tuesday morning (Monday night) . Day will be windy and cool.


Day temperatures will rise to 30c, due to easterly winds for a couple of days.

Expect the night temperatures to be around 12c till Sunday. Monday /Tuesday could see a fall to 9c.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Severe revival of Winter for the Northern hemisphere on the cards ?

A very interesting and informative write up on the present winter, and its reasoning by fellow meteorologist and friend Rajan.Highly recommended for complete reading !

Big pattern changes in winter coming? Arctic Oscillation Flips to Rajan's Blog here.

On the same topic, Mark puts up something very interesting too !
HE GREAT FIGHTBACK OF OLD MAN WINTER MAY HAVE JUST BEGUN...Arctic Oscillation & North Atlantic Oscillation both suggest the coming of cold to the USA and much of Europe. Both may be shivering by Jan 20.

Cold wave has gripped the plains of Northern sub-continent region, with Amritsar dropping to -2c on Tuesday morning.Incidently, this was the projected temperature for Amritsar put up on Vagaries' weekly forecast map, alongwith the 4c for Delhi.
Mumbai and Pune, however,gave vagaries the slip while going down to 11c and 7c (vagaries had predicted 13c and 9c respectively).

Vijaywada on the east coast was lashed by heavy rains today, recording 73 mms. In Orissa, Bhubaneshwar measured 14 mms in the day.Rains will persisit till tomorrow in the region.

IMD has annonced the withdrawal of the NEM from the Southern states today, 10th Jan.

J-2, will precipitate rain/snow over the Northern/Central regions of Pakistan from Friday, 13th, and move into India the next day.
Karachi and Sukkar will have partly cloudy skies. Rise in temperatures till Sunday. Rain in some regions of upper Sindh.
Precipitation all over the north will be heavy on the weekend.Snowfall again in Kashmir and H.P.will disrupt traffic and vehicle movement.
At this stage,it is felt that further east, J-2 precipitation will not be effective beyond western most Nepal.

NW winds sweeping the plains of NW/Central and Western India will bring down the temperatures in the region from next Monday..shall discuss later.

Mumbai: A rise in night temperatures to around 16c (S'Cruz) from Thursday morning.Weekend will be mild and pleasant. Fall again from Monday night.

Monday, January 09, 2012

Simla Mall

Expecting the projected cold wave in the plains of the sub continent to take effect with lower night tempertaures from Monday night thru Wednesday. Expecting low to dive to 3/4c in the NCR, and to 1c in Punjab (Amritsar, Adampur).

J-2 (W.D.) is expected to reach the Northern Pakistan region as on schedule, by Saturday 14th. J-2 is forecasted to be quite effctive and expect precipitation down south upto upper Sindh in Pakistan and Rajasthan in India.

Meanwhile, clouding will result in a rise in night temperatures for Coastal Sindh fom Tuesday.

General Information:
In the year 2011,the hottest temperature globally was 51.0c at Nawabshah, Pakistan on June 8.

The year's coldest temperature was - 78.5c at Russia's Vostok Antarctic research station on May 20.

The first week of 2012, saw the hottest temperature 44.7c at Ceduna, South Australia.
and the week's coldest temperature was -55.1c at Russia's Siberian outpost of Oimyakon.

Sunday, January 08, 2012

New !! A weekly Forecast !

Vagaries Sunday Weather Forecast for the Week: 8th -15th January.
( This is put up gauging the current situation, and could be subject to changes during the week. Please give your approval/comments for changes or improvements. Will continue if ok with readers. In the absence of any feedback, shall discontinue this format.)

1. J-1 Moves away on Sunday. Decrease in rainfall from Northern regions. Expected to cover Nepal on Sunday/Monday. Major fog in Northern plains on Monday/Tuesday.

2. Persisting Rain over Orissa on Sunday and Monday.

3. Projected weak W.D. from Tuesday,10th staggers, but due to secondary, Sindh Pakistan will get light rains on 10/11th.

4. Next major W.D, (J-2) on Northern regions from Saturday,14th.

5. Cold Wave likely over Plains of NW, Western and Central India and Sindh Pakistan on Monday and Tuesday.

6. NEM likely to start retreat this week.

Saturday, January 07, 2012

Snowfall in the Lower regions of H.P...

Heavy snowfall is reported from Himachal Pradesh’s towns of Shimla , Kufri , Narkanda , Chail , Manali , Dharamsala, snowfall was unusually heavy in Dharamsala , Chamba and Dalhousie Saturday.
But, the surprise was the freak snowfall in the lower hills of the state after over half a century .

Residents of the temple towns of Chintpuri,Jwalaji and Kangra were shocked by the snowfall and sleet.The pilgrimage centre of Chintpurni saw snow after 1946 .
Nurpur had snow after 45 years. Shahpur and parts of Hamirpur among other places also experienced snowfall and sleet after many decades .

Even across the border in Pakistan,snowfall has been recorded after 6 years at Margalla Hills in Islamabad.The mountains including picnic point Pir Suhawa wore a white snow cover.

Temperatures likely to fall next 2 days in the plains and Central regions of India.
Cold and fall in temperatures likely in Sindh, but till 9th, after which temperatures will rise due to cloud cover over Sindh.

Thursday, January 05, 2012

J-1 has brought snow in the Kashmir and hills pf H.P. on Thursday. As on Thursday evening, it is overcat in these states, and Simla is experiencing sleet and light drizzles. Expecting Simla to see the first snowfall of this season tonite. Very likely that Srinagar too will get snowfall tonite.

Gulmarg had another day of snow, though light, with the day's high at -1c and low at -9c. Pahalgam had 6 mms of rain/snow.

A thick fog on Thursday morning brought down the visibility at New Delhi Safdarjung to 0 kms. The fog persisted till 10 am at the thickest.Moisture from J-1 and calm conditions helped in the fog forming over the entire region.Very thick fog is expected to set in again tonite, with major disruptions in transport and air traffic.Night temperatures are expected to fall from the current 10c level to 5c on Friday morning.

A weak W.D, is due to approach the Northern regions of Pakistan and the Northern states of India on Tuesday, 10th.Jan. An induced low, secondary, will travel eastwards alongwith the system, and bring rain too the Balochistan and Sindh regions on the 10th. Karachi can expect cloudy weather, with some precipitation on Tuesday, 10th.
Snow in Balochistan will bring down temperatures in Karachi and Sukkar from the 11th of Jan.

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

A forecast Map for J-1 . Click here for larger View.

This season's first snowfall in Arunachal Pradesh occurred at the picturesque Tawang town situated 10,200 feet above sea level. The low temperature plummeting to -6c. “After recording the season's heavy snowfall since Sunday, life was thrown out of gear. Sela Pass at a height of nearly 13,700 feet on the Bomdila-Tawang road, was covered with three feet of snow in the last three days.Heavy snowfall blocked the road at Sela Pass yesterday.

On Sunday and Monday, the hills around Darjeeling received the forst snowfall. Tiger Hill had snow. Darjeeling had a high of 6.8c and a low of 1.5c on Tuesday.

Mumbai recorded a minimum of 17c at S'Cruz and 20c at Colaba. This was expected, as mentioned in the last blog article. However,the city will see night temperatures dropping from 7th Jan.

Pune will also feel the cold after 7th Jan.

Mark Vogan gives an outstanding account and details of Gale wind Storms in U.K., with videos...dont miss it, see here.
Astonishing 105 mph were recorded in Edinburgh's Blackford Hill and at Malin Head, Co Donegal while the Forth Road Bridge and Isle of Islay recorded gusts of 97 mph. This storm was BY FAR the worst of the season with large swathes of damage ranging from downed trees, snapped signs, lorries blown over to roofs being blown off....
100mph winds and blizzards batter Scotland
The River Clyde burst its banks in several places as severe weather hits the country on Tuesday...
Lorries blown over in 90mph winds force closure of M8 Kingston Bridge.....

Sunday, January 01, 2012

A trough extended from the low (remnant of "Thane") in the Arabian Sea to Central India, and then bent into the U.P. region. Resultantly, moisture incursion concentrated in the Eastern end of the trough. It brought extensive clouding into Nepal and adjoining U.P. In U.P, Kasganj measured 70 mms, Etah 20 mms and Agra measured a reasonable 24 mms of rain.

On reviewing yesterday's forecast map put up on Vagaries, it can be seen that the rain areas forecasted (blue colour) has been pushed Northwards a bit. However, in the areas forecasted by Vagaries, Brahmapuri(Vidharbh) measured 33 mms, Raipur 31 mms, Jabalpur 26 mm sand Nagpur 6mms.
Naintal had a cold 31st, with 20 mms of rain and a low of 3c.

Kathmandu was overcast on Sunday, a dark begining to 2012, with the occasional light drizzle.The highest temperature on New Years Day was 12.6c.

Expect the trough to shorten upto the Madhya Mah.region by Monday, and a decrease in precipitation from the U.P.and Nepal regions. Kathmandu will see decrease in cloudiness from Monday, with the night temperature going to near freezing on Wednesday morning.

In Sindh, Pakistan,Karachi and Sukkar were at a minimum of 8c on the first day of 2012.Expect the night to be in the 8-10c region till Wednesday.Partly cloudy skies from Thursday will see a rise in night temperatures.

The first W.D. of the year will bring precipitation to the Northern regions of Pakistan from Wednesday thru Friday. Numbering the system J1, it would move into Northern India on Wednesday. The system would be of average strength, and would bring snow to Kashmir, H.P. on Wed/Thu/Fri.
Light rainfall in the Punjabs on either side of the international border could be expected. Haryana and adjoining U.P. could get cloudy weather with light rainfall on the 5th and 6th.

Cloudy weather could extend into Upper Sindh (Pakistan) and Rajasthan regions. A cold spell could follow this system.

Mumbai: A UAC (located around central India) embedded in the trough brought a gush of cold NNW winds into the Mumbai region. Winds throughout the day on Sunday saw the day's high at 28c in Mumbai. Mumbai(S'Cruz) low could be 14c on Monday morning.

Temperatures are expected to rise again to the 18/19c level (S'Cruz) from Tuesday. A cold wave would see nights getting cold again from 6th, Friday.

Pune will see a sharp drop in the minimum temperature, from Sunday's 18c, and record a low of 13c on Monday, with a clear day.

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Vagaries- Bringing the Weather to your Home !

 14th July Good rains tops Mumbai lakes to 29.7%  ! ( Last year this date 29.7%!) Tamhini tops the list by recording 315mms #Khandala: 264 #...