Saturday, June 11, 2011

AS-1 intensified a bit in the last 6 hrs, and pressure now at 996 mb. At 20N and 71.7E, it means it has moved NW since last observation.
Moving towards Saurastra coast and subsequently the Sindh coast. As anticipated, will skirt the coasts. Weakening trends possible from Sunday night.

J1, a fresh W.D. is advancing into Northern India via N.Pakistan. Surely will have some effect on the SWM and track of AS-1.

Day temperatures have seen a slight downward trend, with Dadu (Pakistan) being the highest in the sub-continent at 47c. The highest in India on Saturday was at Kota at 44.3c and Bikaner 43.8c.

BB1, the bay low, persisits in the Northern Bay as an UAC, and has pushed the SWM into Bangladesh and Sikkim today.
Next stop Kolkata and Nepal.

Mumbai:

In the 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm on Saturday, Mumbai Colaba received 102 mms and S'Cruz 181 mms.

A few showers of short duration on Saturday night.

Sunday: Cloudy, with short sunny intervals. Short duration showers.

Foot Note:

Vagaries had a query in the comments column a few days back. "Why does vagaries SWM advance dates differ from IMD"? I had explained my reasons and what parameters I refer to when doing this. In fact I repeated that i follow the norms as per IMD.

Mumbai SWM was advanced by IMD on 5th June. Vagaries advanced SWM into Mumbai on 9th June. Quoting below from the "Times of India", Dated 11th June, , page 2, (Mumbai edition) what weather officials at Colaba clarified:

Quote-"So despite the torrential downpour of June 2-3, Met officials insisted any rain before June 10 was a pre-monsoon shower. It was only on June 5 that an embarrassed bureau decided to announce that the monsoon had arrived. "Thundershowers usually indicate pre-monsoon activity but we had to make the announcement, or else people would say the rains were evidently here and we were ignorant," Sharma said". -Unquote

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi
Could you please put up tables or chart here on daily basis update for mumbai lakes level?
mcgm has discontinue the site
http://www.mumbaimonsoon.com/cgi-sys/defaultwebpage.cgi
where previously people had opportunity to see area wise rainfall update of 15 minutes.

emkay said...

Rajeshm we need an interpretation of why the eye was formed yesterday around 1430 and continued until 1600 hrs sat maps. Akshay Deoras and myself were observing tho me as a layman. Have never seen such a clear cut eye in a non-cyclone. Unfortunately Kalpana pics were not good to show clarity. US Navy Met pics were good.

emkay said...

to endorse my prev. comment on the eye, JTWC now shows on the cyclone track that yesterday it got revved up to fall into the 34-63 knots category during the time the eye was visible.
See link http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2011/io012011.11061118.gif

Ganesh said...

its unfortunate that mcgm has discontinued their webpage...is there any other source where we can get area wise update on mumbai rainfall??

Ron said...

erm..an eye was formed..i couldn't see any eye forming to be honest...was it even a deep depression??

svt said...

Its raining steadily for 90 mins in dadar. Look like low will dissipate along the west gujarat coast in Next 48 hrs.

Ron said...

apparently its a depression now...