Saturday, February 27, 2010


Defying all logic, forgetting it is still February and going all above normal for this time, the day temperatures have soared higher,over a larger area today,27th.



The IMD map shows the red region increasing, and the 35c-38c range has suddenly enlarged !!
Many places in the Indian sub-continent have reached 37/38 today, .Suddenly,quite a few are in the fray now:Anantpur and Kurnool 37.8c,Solapur 37.6c, Mumbai, Ahemdabad and Akola 37.5c,Baroda/Rajkot 37.4, to name a few. There are so many of them, that I feel it will be easier to potray the 37/38s in a map.
And, what a surprise ! Mumbai has suddenly joined the race to reach 40c first ! With a high of 37.5c at S'Cruz today (27th.) the city is in the race !

Friday, February 26, 2010


Snow up North
The awaited Western Disturbance is now affecting the western Himalayan/H.P. and Kashmir region from yesterday, and will continue to do so for the next three days.

As an extended outcome, rain or snow may occur over Uttaranchal from Friday.

On the passage of another approaching W.D, rain is also expected in Dubai on Saturday,27th., and in Oman on Monday 1st. March.

Satellite cloud imagery on Friday morning shows thick clouds over the Kashmir and H.P. region and partly cloudy skies over Punjab.
The temperatures are now expected to go down by 2/3c in the next few days over Northern/Central and Western India.

The latest day temperature map from IMD shows the maximum temperatures hovering in the region of 34 to 36 c. Highest on 25th. was 38.8c at Anantpur.

kapadias@gmail.com

The Met Office (U.K.) is to re-examine 160 years of global temperature records following the 'climategate' scandal.- Telegraph,U.K

"This project, will be in partnership with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It will gather the original temperature records from thousands of weather stations around the world. The readings will be double-checked and new information that has become available, such as improved understanding of atmospheric change, will be added. The data will then be independently analysed to assess how the temperature has changed over different regions."

The new analysis, will now provide a more detailed picture of any global warming and boost public confidence in actual facts.

Just to remind readers, this project is correctly undertaken, after emails stolen from the University of East Anglia show scientists were willing to manipulate global warming data in a scandal known as 'climategate'.
kapadias@gmail.com


Wednesday, February 24, 2010

The main extreme heated area in the South shrinks, and is now restricted to a small area around Anantpur.
The highest day temperature in India, and Asia on 24th. was at Anantpur, 38c, and Kurnool 38c.
But, the very high temperatures have relented a bit, and we see more of the low 30s now pushing Southwards, into regions which were above 35c till yesterday.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010


Anantpur Skirting Blog Poll Target.
With the Southern Peninsula taking the "Heat" lead, the entire Indian region was under an above normally hot day on 23rd. February. The IMD map shows this, with the Southern region almost undergoing a February "Heat Wave" !!


And, the day temperature map shows the mid and hight30s barge into Gujarat and M.P. Now, Rajasthan and U.P.have moved in the above 25c range, and the states North of them in the low 20s.


At this rate, I may have to close my blog poll earlier than anticipated. I normally expect the first 40c around the 10th. Of March. But with Anantpur, teasing at 39.4c today (23rd.), the target is almost touched, and it may be a matter of a day or two before this unexpected city reaches 40c. Leaving the other candidates behind . The closest today was Solapur at 36.5.
Anantpur is so consistent in keeping up with its hot temperature ( for Anantpur 34c is normal for this day), that it maintains the 4th. day running as the hottest city in Asia.

Where was the W.D, mentioned in this blog earlier, that was supposed to have pushed down the 30c line Southwards ??
Well, the W.D. did come, and it rained in the North on 22/23rd. The 24hrs. (NRL) rainfall map of 23rd. shows the Northern region get some rain last 24hrs. Rajashtan too got rain on Tuesday.

The effect of this could be felt from Wednessday onwards. With yet another W.D. in the waiting, rains are expected in the Western Himalayas, and the North-Western regions of India from Thursday again. Weekend can witness heavy rains/snow in the Northand fairly good rains in the North-Western regions.
Hopefully, these systems will bring down the day temperatures by tomorrow, and within a couple of days push away the prospect of an early 40c in the Southern peninsula.
But, on the arrival of W.Ds, the night temperatures will continue to remain high due to cloud cover and moisture.

Mumbai suburbs got some showers on Tuesday, due to an upper air low, associated with the previous W.D. Mumbai will see a small drop in night temperatures, going down to 19/20c, and likely to remain pleasant for the next couple of days.
kapadias@gmail.com

Sunday, February 21, 2010



The heat today "quietly" crept into the Western regions of India. The IMD map shows the "red" of the 35c areas going into Gujarat and South Rajasthan. And the darker shade in the Central areas of the Southern Peninsula.

And, our poll cities ? Todays, 21st. Feb highest was Anantapur again at 38.8c (again highest in Asia today).
The others: Solapur: 38.3c (and 2nd. highest in Asia ), Akola 38.0c, Nagpur 35c and Baroda 34.3c.
All these day temperatures, in fact the entire Indian region, is now above normal for this time.I would put as a mid heat wave in the areas showing the yellow and green shades in the departure map.
The expected W.D.is appraoching the Indian region. By Tuesday, the warm "red " areas should retreat southwards.
kapadias@gmail.com

Saturday, February 20, 2010

The warming trend in the southern peneinsula shows no signs of stopping. Ahead of schedule..or not...its going full "heat" ahead.
No..the Northern "current" has not yet intervened.
And as the days go hotter, the likely "candidates" from our poll are lagging behind, and "others" racing ahead.
Todays (20th.) highs. Nagpur (way behind) at 34.3c. Solapur at 37.3c and Akola at 37.0c. Anatapur, highest in Asia , at 39.4c. Almost reaching the mark !

40c Poll Results earlier than Expected ?


The warming trend in the southern peninsula seems to be pushing North relentlessly, and unmindfull of the fact that "it is still too early" for its appearance.
No effect of W.D. and no effect of Nort-Westerlies. The 35c range is moving up.
And pushing the 20c range further up North. (Map)
At this rate, our poll for the first 40c in India will have results faster than antcipated. Yesterday, it was 38.6c at Anantapur ! Incidently it was highesat in Asia too !
Lets watch it on daily basis, and hope the Northerlies can for some time put a halt to the rising trend,and for a little relief soon.
kapadias@gmail.com

Thursday, February 18, 2010


Summer Nudge from South:
Current day temperatures have started showing a rising trend, especially from the southern most tip of the Indian sub-continent. As discussed earlier, the normal on set of summer, that is, the warming trend starts from the south, and pushing its way up north, through outt the month of March.

The highest of 37c, on 17th. was at Kurnool, in the south. The warming has actually started from the Thailand/Myanmar region, with Prome, in Myanmar being the hottest in Asia yesterday at 39c.


But, still, this warming is a bit early for the season. On the anomaly map of the maximum temperatures of the 17th. it is seen that the southern tip is above normal for this time, and the central region of the south is very much on the higher side of the normal.
Now, how can this upward warm trend be halted, at least for now? By pushing it back southwards, with the help of a W.D.
And, the good news is, that a fresh western disturbance is likely to affect Jammu & Kashmir from February 23. NCEP forecasts this W.D as ‘active', like the recent W.D. which had brought heavy rains and snow over the western Himalayas and adjoining plains last week.
On an extended forecast, NCEP predicts rains for north-west India upto end of February, and maybe into first days of March.


Hence, we can expect a southward shift of lower day temperatures from 23rd, and even bring back the south to normal day temperatures.


The 925 hpa map (IMD) shows a confluence of winds over southern and adjoining east India. This explains the clouds, in a south-westerly belt from Orissa to Kerala thru Vidharbh and Karnataka, and light rains in the east-central region, and extending south-west into Vidharbh and interior Karnataka.


Meanwhile, the Northern Hemisphere continues to shiver, with snow now covering new and extended areas of Europe.


The coldest in the Northern Hemisphere yesterday was :Ojmjakon (Siberia) -55c, in N.America, Euraka Airport, -39c,in Europe, Suomussalmi (Sweden) -37c, in India coldest were Darbuk (Ladhak), at -34c and Keylong ( H.P.) at -5c , and in U.K.Tulloch Bridge at -15c.


Wow, thats cold all over !!
kapadias@gmail.com

Saturday, February 13, 2010


Snow cover for entire U.S. ?
With Washington and other eastern cities digging out from the heaviest snow in decades,opponents of climate change are seizing on a record snowfall in Eastern U.S. On the other hand, environmentalists have launched a counter, pointing out that Olympics host Vancouver is facing a dearth of snow and saying the extreme weather may in fact offer proof, not a rebuttal, of changing climate patterns.

Since the 10th.of February,residents across the eastern US are witnessing record snowfalls that paralyzed the region. Wednesday's blizzard has turned the 2009-2010 winter into the snowiest ever on record for Washington, Baltimore and Philadelphia, leaving roads too dangerous to navigate.
Compare the 79.9 inches of snow Baltimore, Maryland, has received this winter to the 65.2 inches over the past five winters combined.
The 11.2 inches of snow that fell in Dallas on Thursday, just 1 inch away from same amount this season in Toronto!
And, already this places 2010 February as the second snowiest on record. February 1978 had 13.5 inches.


Mark brings to my notice: the prospect that if someplaces in Florida recieve even the slightest covering of snow , then ALL 50 STATES will have snowcover at one time! Something never recorded in history but apparently the Weather Channel's Tim Ballisty has blogged that Hawaii's peaks do not have snow on them and therefore 49 states would have snow, however even 49 states in quite remarkable and every state in the lower 48, well, quite amazing I think......


And now, reports are coming in that snow is falling and hard on the Florida panhandle and some places are reporting accummulations!! So, every state of the U.S. covered with snow ??Very very rare !.

Satellite of U.S. snow cover

Friday, February 12, 2010


A Non Technical (simple) Forecast for Mumbai (On Request).

Actually, there is nothing much of a forecast to put up for Mumbai, during this mid-February period. What do you forecast ? No rain, and clear skies?
But, the FAQ from Mumbaites: is our short lived so called "winter "over ?
Thats right. Thats the question from all in Mumbai, and most want to hear a NO.
Well, whatever we've had till now of winter, I can say the least the "pleasant "weather now prevailing will last into mid week next.
I'll just refresh by copy/pasting my forecast for Mumbai from my blog dated 6th. Feb. The forecast was upto Friday, 12th. 


"For Mumbai, it will be a partly cloudy Sunday, with the day around 30c, and no signs of real cooling at night (22c). Monday will also be partly cloudy, but we should see some cooling from Wednessday thru Saturday. A windy Wednessday and Thursday, will bring the temperature down to around 27c in the day and nights can be around 17c. Suburbs may go down to 14c. Pleasant weather for Mumbai till Saturday".


So continuing...
I give the temperature range, as the comfort level of "cold" and "pleasant" to "very cold" varies from person to person. So, judge your own comfort with the temperatures.


Now, we are well into the weekend, and to put things simply, Mumbai will have the current mild weather conditions, (with temperatures in the range 30c-19c), till Wednessday. I estimate a slight warming up, to 32c from 17th. Feb. Pleasant breeze in the evenings, for the weekend. Cloudy patches on Sunday due to...sorry no technicalities...rest all days, till Thursday, clear and sunny.
This weekend, Lonavala may be partially cloudy, hence the weather may not be cold, in fact should be just pleasant, with days warmish at 28c and nights at 15c.
kapadias@gmail.com

Wednesday, February 10, 2010



North Indian States Snow Bound:

The Northern Indian States of Kashmir and H.P. have been witnessing heavy rain and snowfall for the past four days, disrupting traffic on the Srinagar-Jammu National Highway. This latest Western Disturbance had approached toward Jammu and Kashmir from 5 February and continued pouring rain/snow till the 8th.


H.P.:
Vehicular traffic to upper parts of Shimla district has been disrupted due to snowfall at Narkanda and Khara Pathhar
Manali too had a fresh spell of snow.
Keylong recorded snowfall of 55 cm, Kalpa-30 cm, Udaipur-37 cm, Dhindi-121 cm, Solangnala-91 cm, Manali-25 cm, Patsio-28 cm, Nichar-38 cm and Rakcham- 34 cm on 8th.Feb.
On 7th, the snow fall recieved was, Simla 49mm, Srinagar 39mm and Kalpa 28mm,


Dhundi in Kullu recorded maximum snowfall of 260 cm, while Hatu Peak in Shimla and Churdhar in Sirmour recorded over 100 cm. Shimla and surrounding areas were lashed by intermittent sleet.


Other heavy rainfall figures in H.P. as on 8th, were Saloni -94, Gohar -68, Karsog -65, Rampur -61, Kandaghat -59, Baijnath -58, Kotkhai & Sunni Bhajji -54 each, Banjar -50, Rajgarh -46, J /Nagar -42, Kasol & Kahu -37 each, Rohru, Kumarsen, Amb & Theog -35 each, Bangana & Renuka -30 each. Kalpa recieved 52cms of snow.
Also, high peaks, including the ranges of famous Manimahesh lake, Jalsu, Kugti, Chobia, Chehni, Saach and Padhri passes had been covered under heavy snow.


The Kangar valley on Monday reeled under cold wave conditions with the Dhauladhar experiencing heavy snowfall.
The tourist destinations near Dharamsala, including Mcleodganj, Dharamkot, Naddi, and Bhagsunag, received snowfall after a span of two years. The tourist destinations and headquarters of Tibetan leader, the Dalai Lama, wore white mantle.
The snow in Mcleodganj was just about two inches. However, in adjoining stations like Dharamkot, Naddi, and Bhagsunag, it was about one feet.
Meanwhile, the tourist town of Manali and adjoining areas experienced season’s heaviest snow
The 13,050-ft-high Rohtang Pass, the gateway to tribal district of Lahaul-Spiti, experienced the season’s heaviest snowfall. The Pir Panjal ranges, Bhrigu ski slopes, Hamta slopes, Chanderkhani pass, Marhi meadows, Gulaba, Kothi, Dhundi also had moderate to heavy snowfall


Kashmir:
Various areas of the Kashmir Valley, particularly in north Kashmir, have been cut off from the rest of the state due to heavy accumulation of snow in the upper reaches and high mountain areas. Gulmarg and Khilanmarg areas are under three to five feet snow accumulated during the past four days.


The holy cave shrine of Mata Vaishno Devi and Patnitop, a famous tourist destination, today witnessed season’s first snowfall on the 7th./8th.
The ski-resort of Gulmarg received 180 centimetres of snow, Kupwara 31.8 mm, while Qazigund received 7.2 mm, Pahalgam 4.2 mm and Kokernag 6.1mm of rain/snow, and the tourist resort of Sonamarg received 3 feet snow on Monday 8th...
Heavy snowfall continued in the upper reaches of Varmul, Kupwara, Bandipora, Uri, Shopian and tourist resorts of Gulmarg and Pahalgam.


Pakistan:
In Pakistan, the Western Disturbance had also resulted in heavy snowfall over the hills of Murree and the complete frontier regions hills.
The W.D. was very active and precipitation was exteremly heavy in Pakistan too. On the 7th, very heavy rain was recorded in Saidu Sharif 250mm , Between 30-70mm in many other cities.
Again on the 8th. the precipitation was heavy with heavy rain/snow , many cities saw "ultra" heavy rains, like, Pattan (NWFP) 105,Murree 97, Abbotabad 77,Mundibhaudin 69, Jehlum 67, Islamabad 53,Dir 51,Saidu-sharif 50 & Rawalpindi 40.
kapadias@gmail.com




Monday, February 08, 2010


Global Warming or Global Cooling ? Not Sure for the Future.

Eitherways, there is absolutely no reason to create an alarm, and declare every major or small weather event anywhere in the world a result of Global Warming.


Melting polar ice, is a fact, and I do not deny it — its has been for centuries. But the alarmists that claim its because of greenhouse emissions, and could lead the world to a catastrophic sea-level rise is, according to me, uncalled for.


Let me explain briefly: It’s not melting sea ice that causes sea levels to rise, but when land sheets melt.


Climate scientist Patrick J. Michael’s states: “What has happened is that Antarctica has been gaining ice.” Only one tiny portion of the continent —- the Antarctic Peninsula — has been warming and the ice melting and the peninsula only constitutes about 2 percent of the Antarctica’s total area. This is the area concentrated by IPCC &Co.and the media, and try to alarm the public.


Using satellite measurements to calculate changes in the ice sheets elevation, it is found 45 billion tons of ice per year has increasd, repeat Gained, between 1992 and 2003, which is enough to lower sea levels by about 0.12 millimeters annually. Today’s alarmists only look at what’s falling off, but not what’s building up top.


Richard Lindzen of MIT thinks that, while most scientists were originally agnostic on the question whether human activity was causing global warming “environmentalists and the media would exaggerate,” (and) build up the public concern. Politicians responded by throwing research dollars at scientists. You’ve developed a scientific community that will do whatever it needs to do to make sure the answer isn’t obtained. Why should taxpayers pay for people not to find an answer?”


As they claim, if today’s temperatures are causing Greenland’s coastal ice to slide into the sea, it must have been 10 times worse 80 years ago. Between 1915 and 1965 it was even warmer. All this was before fossil fuel burning could have started global warming.


Anyway,there is no scientific evidence that the Greenland ice sheet is melting (and so we don't hear of Greenland too often).


The earth is constantly changing. Throughout it's history it has been extremely cold, (ice ages and the snowball earth theory for when it was possibly completely covered in ice) to extremely warm, much warmer than it is now. The thing is, for the first time in our known history we have the ability to track and observe changes in the world. We may be blaming ourselves for altering a world that naturally alters itself. But to say humans are the cause of Global warming is dishonest. My often repeated terminology as to what we are really responsible for is merely creating “urban heat effects"


So if we can't be sure what is going to happen in the future, what is to be done? The correct answer is for us to minimize any impact. The biosphere is a massive parallel set of "conditioning " that works to try and keep things within a fairly narrow range. We don't want to meddle with that. So yes by all means let's drastically reduce fossil fuel use.
 Let's also work to find a good balance of people vs. nature.
kapadias@gmail.com

                         On the lighter side:                 








Saturday, February 06, 2010


Hot weather just prior to an active W.D.

A W.D. has been active with 20-40mms of rain in many places across Pakistan today. Days have cooled down, with Islamabad recording 14c as the day's high today.
Max Day temperatures of 6th.
Even as the W.D. has become active over Pakistan, and Kashmir,today we see the day temperatures rising all over the Indian region, excepting Kashmir. The map above shows the Western half of India in the high range of 32-36c today.
Anomaly Map Of 6th.
Elsewhere in India too, the days were high, and above normal temperatures are seen in the anomaly map above .
Now, this is just the "pre" heat of the approaching system. The active western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region and plains of northwest India from tomorrow onwards.
Rain/snow will occur all over Kashmir and over Himachal Pradesh from tomorrow for next 2-3 days.
Rain/snow will commence over Uttarakhand from Sunday, and increase thereafter.The hill stations and tourist resorts in both the states will get a fresh sprinkling of snow.
Some thundershower activity may occur over Punjab and Haryana from tomorrow and this activity may extend into Rajasthan and Kutch regions. Central and east India will see precipitation commencing on 8th and 9th February.
More detailed reports of the W.D. later.

For Mumbai, it will be a partly cloudy Sunday, with the day around 30c, and no signs of real cooling at night (22c). Monday will also be partly cloudy, but we should see some cooling from Wednessday thru Saturday. A windy Wednessday and Thursday, will bring the temperature down to around 27c in the day and nights can be around 17c. Suburbs may go down to 14c. Pleasant weather for Mumbai till Saturday.
kapadias@gmail.com


Friday, February 05, 2010


Good Rains/snow for the North

In his forecast, meteorologist Ashokbhai, from Gujarat re-assures of a strong W.D. coming towards the Indian region this weekend. Also a very good detailed report on Rajkot weather available on his site at
http://www.gujaratweather.com/

Tuesday, February 02, 2010


This blog is to be read as a continuation of the last blog.

In the previous blog, we discussed the weather over Indian sub continent for January.




Well, now we have,above, the actual average temperature anomaly map for January. The map of the average temperature anomaly shows the northern areas, eastern half of U.P and eastern India region as below normal (due to colder foggy days). Rest, is observed in the normal range, and as expected, the west, and the west coast (Mumbai region) is above normal. What with the highest temperature in Asia being recorded in Mumbai on certain days ! We have seen the hot January diagram for Mumbai in the previous blog


And the trend continues in the first week of the current month. Todays maximum and minimum are above normal covering almost the entire country.(IMD maps).






The actual maximum temperature readings on 2nd. February are high, and shown in the map below.




And, it has also been unseasonally dry.


We now look westwards, and sight the fresh W.D. approaching the sub-continent region. Expected to precipitate fairly good amounts of rain/snow in the north, and also in the central regions of Rajasthan/M.P, the system should become active in the Indian region from Saturday. Hopefully, it should lessen the rain deficit, and bring cooler weather in its rear.


Earlier, in its path, rains are expected from this system in Dubai on Friday, and Oman on Saturday.

kapadias@gmail.com